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Projected Win totals for all 32 teams (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
NFC East

Philly 12-5 The Igglz have the highest expectations coming in to 2024. I think it will take a few games for some of the rookies on Defense to learn the ropes but then its Go Time!

Washington 10-7 Daniels is going to be a big deal his rookie season and Washington will be relevant quickly. New Owner, New Coach, New QB and a thirsty fan base

Dallas 9-8 Not sure what is going on here but the optics look terrible so far

NY Giants 7-10 They might be better than last season but that doesn't make them a good football team. Is Jones a Top 20 starting QB?


North

Detroit 11-6 They won't just roll thru everyone but they are still the top team in the North

Green Bay 9-8 I am not sold on Jordan Love, gonna have to see this again.

Chicago 9-8 I almost want to list them ahead of the Packers, Caleb Williams has a lot to work with at WR and TE, decent RBs and the Bears should win more football games.

Minnesota 7-10 Sam Darnold or bust on his 4th NFL roster? I would be jittery if I had a stake at WR on this team right now.


South

Atlanta 10-7 Cousins or Penix, doesn't take much to win the South these days, 9 wins might do it.

Tampa Bay 9-8 Let's see what Year 2 of Baker Mayfield looks like. Still have Bowles as the head coach, that's not a good thing.

New Orleans 6-11 6-7-8 wins, whatever but they aren't going any where with Dennis Allen calling the shots. Saints are waiting for their future QB to arrive, also Head Coach

Carolina 3-14 Could easily see them having the No 1 pick next Draft and they are a working model of why I feel NFL owners should be given a window of no more than 10 seasons to produce. After that forced to sell to the next owner waiting on the sidelines ready to buy the team for at least double or triple what the last sale price was...so just get out of the way Tepper, you have been an absolute failure for many years now.

West

San Francisco 11-6 They are due for one of those down years where Shanahan despite all his success has a losing season or misses the Playoffs...but they are loaded and it's hard to imagine them slipping with CMC running the show from the RB spot.

LA Rams 9-8 Maybe a wildcard team but they have very limited talent IMHO outside of the 2 big names at WR and maybe the RB is as good as some folks say...but they have a lot of questions.

Seattle 8-9 Who is the starting QB and where does he stack up in the Top 20-25 pecking order?

Arizona 5-12 Work in progress. Harrison won't single handedly push them into the Playoffs.

-I have Philly, Detroit, Atlanta and San Fran winning the divisions, minus the Bucs that's the same as last season.
Wildcard teams, Washington will fill up 1 of the 3 remaining spots and then Dallas, Chicago, Green Bay, the LA Rams and yes I guess the Bucs will all be in range for the final 2 spots.
I'll say the Packers and Rams which both made it last year but I have the Bears as my dark horse right now and would like to have them included.
The NFC will have a handful of teams all in the post season hunt.


AFC East

Miami 11-6 Hill-Waddle-Achance(WR3)-Wright in the RB spot or backfield, 4.3 speed or faster in every direction

Buffalo 10-7 Still have Josh Allen and he can will them to several wins. They are retooling and will get stronger as the season unfolds much like they did last year, don't judge early

NY Jets 10-7 All predicated on the health of one Aaron Rodgers. We will see if the investments along the OL pay off.

New England 4-13 Could give the Panthers a run for the top spot in the Draft, I don't see a lot of wins which is why they are cleaning house


North

Baltimore 12-5 They're going to win a lot of football games and host another AFCC...repeat after me please

Cincinnati 9-8 I could see them winning 10 games but they are not going to steal the division away from the Ravens

Pittsburgh 8-9 The Ministry is asking for trouble by projecting a Tomlin team for a losing season but the QB play looks very uninspiring right now.

Cleveland 8-9. They don't seem to know who they are, Chubb coming off a horrific injury. They somehow managed to make the playoffs last season

South

Houston 11-6. How have they gotten worse than last year? 2nd season for Stroud, sign MoP up

Jacksonville 9-8 Something is missing but I think the offense will look better than last year. Lookout for Brian Thomas, Jags in the hunt for a Wildcard

Indianapolis 8-9. I still am not convinced they have the right guy starting at QB, maybe '24 will clear up some of the questions many seem to have

Tennessee 6-11 What felt like a lot of talent at the skill positions to aid Levis is starting to feel the injury bug already and also the loss of Henry at RB, could be a rough 1st season for the HC


West

Kansas City 11-6 Back to Back Super Bowls with a lot of Defense that is still improving as quite a lot of it appeared in recent Drafts for the Chefs. They have overhauled and continued to win.

Las Vegas 9-8. Closer but still somewhat far away

Denver 6-11 I'm going to keep an open mind but I don't see a quick start for Bo Nix and the team, things will get better over the course of the season, 2025 will be much different. It's not just the QB, I don't see a lot of weapons that strike fear into the opposing team.

LA Chargers 5-12 Harbaugh pretty much stripped the offense down except the OL where he is working on strengthening it. Not a lot of weapons for Herbert to work with right now, think Harbaugh is just trying to reshape the culture and that usually requires a lot more than just 1 off season, by next summer this team will look a lot more like Harbaugh intends it to be. If you think the Chargers can win 7-8-9 games, all good but in the end they are not a Playoff team and if that's the case I don' t think Harbaugh is going to be pushing the gas. A Top 5 pick and they don't need a QB, they will be loaded and ready to surround Herbert with more weapons...we hope.

-Miami, Baltimore, Houston and Kansas City are your division winners.
I have Buffalo and New York as strong Playoff contenders and that leaves one spot open so I'll go with Joe Burrow over the Jags and Raiders

What have you got for win totals and who is making the Playoffs? What teams are your surprise teams?
 
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I like your Washington over Dallas pick, but I dont know if it happens. All the hype is on Daniels, but that O-line is trash.

I think BUF/MIA is 50/50 to win the division. I definitely see a bit of regression in store for MIA or I would pick them easily.

I feel IND pushes for that division title. I feel like HOU hit their ceiling last year and will be tough for them to repeat being that good. But they will still compete for the division.
 
As a Falcons fan, I don't like reading all of the "ATL wins the NFC South" rhetoric that I've read over the last 2 weeks. I am not ready to have my heart broken again...
 
I don't see how Washington can go from SO bad to good in one year. They might only win 2 division games. Your win totals for NE, NO, Minnesota, Carolina and the Chargers seem optimistic. I think Houston and Jacksonville only get better. NFC North will be a powerhouse
 
I don't see how Washington can go from SO bad to good in one year. They might only win 2 division games. Your win totals for NE, NO, Minnesota, Carolina and the Chargers seem optimistic. I think Houston and Jacksonville only get better. NFC North will be a powerhouse
the absence of EB running the offense is easily worth an extra 4-6 wins. Add good coaching, some really good defense free agent signings, and the best QB in college football last year to finally show the world how good Terry McLaurin is and you have a playoff caliber team IMO.
 
I don't see how Washington can go from SO bad to good in one year. They might only win 2 division games. Your win totals for NE, NO, Minnesota, Carolina and the Chargers seem optimistic. I think Houston and Jacksonville only get better. NFC North will be a powerhouse
I was thinking about putting the Pats at like 2-15, LAC at 4-13, Saints and Vikings might be generous but it's a parody league.
That's why I think Washington can rise quickly in '24, lot of 9-8/8-9 type teams, maybe they can separate from the pack.
I do think Washington could struggle in September, like maybe 1-3 but look good doing it, suddenly they are 5-4/4-5 and picking up speed for the 2nd Half of the season.
Feel the same about the Bears, dark horse that has a lot of things working for them.
 
i can’t imagine washington and chicago being over .500 with rookie QBs.
I get where you are coming from, especially looking at rookie QBs historically, but Williams and Daniels aren't your typical rookie QBs. I don't think it's too much a stretch to say they are generational talents compared to your typical rookie QB.
 
Fun thread.

I think the recipe for unders is teams that relied on defense last year and still don't have a good offense this year. So I think my biggest difference from your projection is the Raiders. I don't have any specific reason to think they will stop being good at defense, but statistically teams that won the way they won last year are not sticky at all year over year. Maybe the defense regresses, maybe the offense is so bad it doesn't matter. Either way, 2023 Raiders needed everything to go their way to win 8 games and you're projecting that to increase. I think they pick in the top 3 of the draft.
 
I've have you wins two more than your losses but maybe it's my math.

Swap Dallas and Washington

Lions win more. GB wins more.

Rookie fever, everyone has it this year.

SF more wins

Baltimore seems high. AFC North is brutal. I'd bump up both Cinny and Clev.

Looking for loses to cover the bumps above, look to the AFC West.
 
I'd be very impressed if Baltimore got to 12 wins this year. Baltimore has a lot tougher schedule this year than last.

-They might have the hardest first 5 weeks of the season of any team. (@KC, LV, @DAL, BUF, @CIN)
-The AFC North is the best division in football. I could see splits in all season series.
-They face KC, Hou, Phi, and Buf this year. Even the mid pack teams they face Dal, TB, and LV are dangerous.
-NYG, Wsh, LAC and Den are the 4 wins that should be locks.
 
i can’t imagine washington and chicago being over .500 with rookie QBs.
From 2014-2023, here is the breakdown for all games started by rookie QBs that were drafted. If there were any UDFA QBs that started a game, they are not included here. There were 61 rookie QBs that started at least 1 game in those seasons, accounting for 497 games started. Their combined record was 182-313-2 (.358). There were 22 rookies that started at least 12 games in their first season:

Dak Prescott
13​
3​
16​
Mac Jones
10​
7​
17​
C.J. Stroud
9​
6​
15​
Kenny Pickett
7​
5​
12​
Carson Wentz
7​
9​
16​
Gardner Minshew
6​
6​
12​
Teddy Bridgewater
6​
6​
12​
Baker Mayfield
6​
7​
13​
Justin Herbert
6​
9​
15​
Sam Darnold
6​
9​
15​
Jameis Winston
6​
10​
16​
Kyler Murray
5​
10​
1​
16​
Mitchell Trubisky
4​
8​
12​
Daniel Jones
3​
9​
12​
Marcus Mariota
3​
9​
12​
Zach Wilson
3​
10​
13​
Josh Rosen
3​
10​
13​
Blake Bortles
3​
10​
13​
Derek Carr
3​
13​
16​
Trevor Lawrence
3​
14​
17​
Bryce Young
2​
14​
16​
DeShone Kizer
0​
15​
15​

I believe the only teams that made the playoffs were the top three guys on the list. That's 3 times in 10 seasons. Could there be 2 of them this season? I wouldn't totally rule it out, as more teams make the playoffs now. But I would suggest it would be unlikely.
 
i can’t imagine washington and chicago being over .500 with rookie QBs.
I get where you are coming from, especially looking at rookie QBs historically, but Williams and Daniels aren't your typical rookie QBs. I don't think it's too much a stretch to say they are generational talents compared to your typical rookie QB.
i hate the term generational talent……trevor lawrence was just about a guarantee and pulled a 3-14 season as a rookie. i don’t know enough to know how daniels and williams will perform, but as a Jet fan, USC QBs need to show me something before being anointed as the next thing……
 
i can’t imagine washington and chicago being over .500 with rookie QBs.
From 2014-2023, here is the breakdown for all games started by rookie QBs that were drafted. If there were any UDFA QBs that started a game, they are not included here. There were 61 rookie QBs that started at least 1 game in those seasons, accounting for 497 games started. Their combined record was 182-313-2 (.358). There were 22 rookies that started at least 12 games in their first season:

Dak Prescott
13​
3​
16​
Mac Jones
10​
7​
17​
C.J. Stroud
9​
6​
15​
Kenny Pickett
7​
5​
12​
Carson Wentz
7​
9​
16​
Gardner Minshew
6​
6​
12​
Teddy Bridgewater
6​
6​
12​
Baker Mayfield
6​
7​
13​
Justin Herbert
6​
9​
15​
Sam Darnold
6​
9​
15​
Jameis Winston
6​
10​
16​
Kyler Murray
5​
10​
1​
16​
Mitchell Trubisky
4​
8​
12​
Daniel Jones
3​
9​
12​
Marcus Mariota
3​
9​
12​
Zach Wilson
3​
10​
13​
Josh Rosen
3​
10​
13​
Blake Bortles
3​
10​
13​
Derek Carr
3​
13​
16​
Trevor Lawrence
3​
14​
17​
Bryce Young
2​
14​
16​
DeShone Kizer
0​
15​
15​

I believe the only teams that made the playoffs were the top three guys on the list. That's 3 times in 10 seasons. Could there be 2 of them this season? I wouldn't totally rule it out, as more teams make the playoffs now. But I would suggest it would be unlikely.
Fantastic list. Comes out to about 85 games under .500
 
Bears defense is very good. Caleb can make freakish plays, but does not seem consistent enough yet to have a great season. Their skill players make him really dangerous though. Nine is probably the ceiling for Bears wins this season, but the key is for Caleb to grow.

Packers should be 10 win team. Also loaded with talent. Love is the real deal, even if he has a slight setback.

The Lions are a 13-win team. Their schedule looks tough, but the Lions offense is the real deal...between them and Miami for the best. The improvements in their defense though is what makes it hard to believe they can't find 13 wins. Young studs who are just getting better and 5 new starters who are big upgrades who will help generate more sacks and provide much better coverage.

Will be the best division in football over the next three years plus.
 
take the over on Detroit
Currently at 10.5. Won 12 last year, but schedule (on paper as of now) is tougher. Very young team that projects well going forward with their GM adding talent every year. I like that they could take one step back and still hit the over.
 
i can’t imagine washington and chicago being over .500 with rookie QBs.
From 2014-2023, here is the breakdown for all games started by rookie QBs that were drafted. If there were any UDFA QBs that started a game, they are not included here. There were 61 rookie QBs that started at least 1 game in those seasons, accounting for 497 games started. Their combined record was 182-313-2 (.358). There were 22 rookies that started at least 12 games in their first season:

Dak Prescott
13​
3​
16​
Mac Jones
10​
7​
17​
C.J. Stroud
9​
6​
15​
Kenny Pickett
7​
5​
12​
Carson Wentz
7​
9​
16​
Gardner Minshew
6​
6​
12​
Teddy Bridgewater
6​
6​
12​
Baker Mayfield
6​
7​
13​
Justin Herbert
6​
9​
15​
Sam Darnold
6​
9​
15​
Jameis Winston
6​
10​
16​
Kyler Murray
5​
10​
1​
16​
Mitchell Trubisky
4​
8​
12​
Daniel Jones
3​
9​
12​
Marcus Mariota
3​
9​
12​
Zach Wilson
3​
10​
13​
Josh Rosen
3​
10​
13​
Blake Bortles
3​
10​
13​
Derek Carr
3​
13​
16​
Trevor Lawrence
3​
14​
17​
Bryce Young
2​
14​
16​
DeShone Kizer
0​
15​
15​

I believe the only teams that made the playoffs were the top three guys on the list. That's 3 times in 10 seasons. Could there be 2 of them this season? I wouldn't totally rule it out, as more teams make the playoffs now. But I would suggest it would be unlikely.
The big shock on this list was Mac Jones:scream:
 
Yeah, much as I like what I see from Williams and Daniels, they aren't BOTH pushing for a playoff spot. Williams has a lot more to work with so I'd go with him. Daniels needs help on that line and another weapon or three to utilize. 6 or 7 wins and to be competitive most weeks would be a success for Washington. Right now anything from 8 wins to 11 wins wouldn't surprise me from Dallas...something is off and the longer Cedee holds out, the more off it gets...but he could sign tomorrow and there's plenty of talent on that roster to challenge Philly.
I like the Atlanta call, but whoever wins the south will be lucky to get out of the wildcard round.
SanFran should cruise to 11-12 wins. I still believe Purdy is being over-rated by most, but that doesn't mean I dont respect the heck out of the talent he is (IE: a long term starter who belongs in the discussion as a top half starter at worst, and fair in the top 10).
If we give a wildcard to Philly or Dallas (whoever doesnt take the division) that still leave two more. I like Detroit to take the North and could see GB taking a WC. That leaves one...I like the Chicago call to sneak in.

Baltimore will roll the North and yes...Tomlin is in for a long losing year. KC will steamroll the west but I actually like Denver to surprise with 7 or so wins. Nix looks legit. Houston and jacks will compete heavily for the South with the loser taking a WC. I'd lean Jags because I think Houston absolutely played at their ceiling last year but I wouldn't be shocked at a repeat.
then there's the east....3 teams all with legit chance, the losing two will fill the other two WCs
 
Seattle 8-9 Who is the starting QB and where does he stack up in the Top 20-25 pecking order?
1. I believe Geno is the unquestioned starter? Or what am I missing here?
-I have Philly, Detroit, Atlanta and San Fran winning the divisions, minus the Bucs that's the same as last season.
2. Philly didn't win their division last year.

3. Vegas and Chicago over .500? Would be very surprised if either was.

4. I Think you're gravitating too close to the middle. When is the last time we only had 2 teams hit 12 wins? Last year 4 teams hit it. The year before, 7 teams hit it. The 2 years before that, 6 teams hit it. Only 2 hitting 12 wins seems near impossible.
 
I have seen the win total over/unders and like the following:

Bears over 8.5 wins
Broncos over 5.5 wins
Rams over 8.5 wins
49ers under 11.5 wins
 
Giants and Vikings at 7 wins seems way too optimistic. 5 is more likely to me. Both teams will be horrible. (Giants << Vikings)

Tennessee at 6 wins is also hard to fathom. That’s a bad ballclub.
 

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