Best draft day value, so far (1 Viewer)

[smackdaddies]

If your going by ADP, then at qb - Derick Anderson all the way. Guy was not draftable, and look at him now. Depending on how your scoring goes, Romo was a 4-6th round pick.

 

[cjack]

I think I understand what you're trying to say, but it's not as simple as saying Romo should have been taken early if you knew he would be good. ...I couldn't draft ADP, Parker, Owens, Edwards, Romo, etc. all in the rounds where I thought they would produce, because they would all be top 3 round picks, but rather, I have to figure out how to get the majority of them on my roster. I may miss on a couple, Moss was a guy I wanted but, I would have had to have drafted him in round 3 to get him this year in my draft, and while he's proved to be worth a round 3 pick or better, I had to take a calculated risk. Done correctly, you'll hit on more than you'll miss, and your team will benefit.Or, you can just attribute people getting Romo or Witten to luck.

It's a little bit of both. I was trying not to write a manuscript. And what you said I mostly agree with. However, not "overspending" leaves a lot to chance. I think it will help if I give you an example.In one league, I targeted Joseph Addai as my first round pick, but given the league setup (QB TDs equal to all other positions and 1 pt for each 10 yard increment on TD length), Peyton Manning was a better projected value to me, so I drafted him then. It's the first time I've ever drafted a QB in the first round, and probably the last, as even in this league, it prevents a value QB from falling to you later. I had planned on waiting to around the sixth round to draft a QB in the Romo/Roethlisberger, etc. tier. Now my strategy changes. To cut to the chase here, my team is solid, but the team drafting later than me in the first round ended up with Addai. Due to other owners choosing (in my opinion) lesser QBs, he also ended up with Romo in the NINTH round. So in my opinion, he was lucky to have Romo due to the way the draft flowed. There's no way Romo's there except for the fact that I already had a QB. If anyone else had thought like me -- and I couldn't believe it as the draft unfolded that they did not -- he would have been long gone. I almost picked him in the 9th round because I didn't want to be disgusted with the value going elsewhere. (Mistake by me in not grabbing him.) The reverse situation happened last year to me. I banked my draft strategy in part on the fact that McNabb would be there in the 5th round. However, another owner selected him two slots ahead of me. The net difference in QB points is the main reason this owner won the championship over me. You can't call the same strategy great (or at least not call it all brilliance and no luck) because it worked for onwer A in 2007 when a similar strategy did not work in 2006 for owner B.Also this year, I flipped a coin in the 11th round and selected Watson over Witten at TE, mostly because I had Witten last year and he underwhelmed me with his 1 TD season. So the onwer who got Witten is to be applauded for draft strategy?Look, I think we're mostly in agreement in that a value pick is only a value pick if you wait for it, and that waiting longer is better, but only if you don't wait TOO long. Then it becomes a value pick to one of your competitors. That's the distinction I'm trying to make. I wasn't as thorough in my first effort, and I'm not sure that I'm entirely clear even here, but I wouldn't call it all skill, just like any other part of FF, it's a combination of skill and luck. Sometimes it's just your year. Other times it's simply not. The good owners put themselves into position to make it be "their year" more often than the poor owners.

Okay, I can agree with the majority of that. Picking one player here or there, or missing a player here or there can certainly involved luck, but consistently getting the right players, and missing as few as possible involves a greater degree of skill. So, yes, a guy might have gotten lucky with Romo and/or Witten, that alone doesn't give us enough info, but it's not strictly luck that some people were able to get Romo later in the draft than say Manning. I, for one, can't recall a single year I ever picked a QB in the first round (and our QB TDs are worth 6 also), primarily because I feel I can get a comparable QB much later in the draft. Do I always pick the right one, no, but more often that not, my draft stategy pays off and my teams do well.I think we're in agreement for the most part, certainly luck plays a part, but I think more skillful FF players usually have luck fall their way a little more often. Of course, I also have a philosophy about taking risks with younger players over solid, but not spectacular veteran types, but that's another discussion.

 

[The Jerk]

I think we're in agreement for the most part, certainly luck plays a part, but I think more skillful FF players usually have luck fall their way a little more often. Of course, I also have a philosophy about taking risks with younger players over solid, but not spectacular veteran types, but that's another discussion.

Most of my championships have come from drafting a rookie RB after hopefully grabbing one early RB stud and two top 10 receivers. My team this year in the league I was about has Adrian Peterson on it, so even though 10 of my 16 players have been injured for at least one game (six for more than one), I'm afloat at 3-3 and third in my league in points. I'm getting killed in points allowed, and that's one thing we all can agree is luck.I agree completely that more skillful players create their own luck. Individual owners get lucky one season here and there, while shrewd owners seem to be lucky every other year or so.

 

[numberSE7EN]

I think Moss and ADP are two of the biggest values so far. Even though I was 'targeting' ADP I was lucky enough to get him at 4.05

I actually made a predraft trade to move out of the three hole. I figured LT and SJ would go 1-2 and did not want to be 'forced' to take LJ at #3. I traded my 1.03 and 5.03 for 1.06 and 4.09. It ended up being Peyton Manning and M Barber III for Addai and ADP. So far I am quite happy with my two RBs, even with Addai missing a game.

I felt ADP would produce at RB2 level and did not take a second RB until the late 4th which allowed me to stock up on QB (we start two) and WR.

*Witten is also doing quite well given his ADP. (I got him in the 9th)

*After last week Welker needs to be on this list. (I got him in the 14th)

 

[cjack]

I think we're in agreement for the most part, certainly luck plays a part, but I think more skillful FF players usually have luck fall their way a little more often. Of course, I also have a philosophy about taking risks with younger players over solid, but not spectacular veteran types, but that's another discussion.

Most of my championships have come from drafting a rookie RB after hopefully grabbing one early RB stud and two top 10 receivers. My team this year in the league I was about has Adrian Peterson on it, so even though 10 of my 16 players have been injured for at least one game (six for more than one), I'm afloat at 3-3 and third in my league in points. I'm getting killed in points allowed, and that's one thing we all can agree is luck.I agree completely that more skillful players create their own luck. Individual owners get lucky one season here and there, while shrewd owners seem to be lucky every other year or so.

That issue with points allowed is exactly why I prefer, and play in, a total points league. I don't like the increased luck factor of a head to head league. Our league has been total points since inception in the early nineties, and I won't consider a change for that reason.Head to head has its advantages I guess, in terms of keeping teams competitive to the end, but I don't like relying on the luck of the schedule.Best of luck though.

 

[The Jerk]

I think we're in agreement for the most part, certainly luck plays a part, but I think more skillful FF players usually have luck fall their way a little more often. Of course, I also have a philosophy about taking risks with younger players over solid, but not spectacular veteran types, but that's another discussion.

Most of my championships have come from drafting a rookie RB after hopefully grabbing one early RB stud and two top 10 receivers. My team this year in the league I was about has Adrian Peterson on it, so even though 10 of my 16 players have been injured for at least one game (six for more than one), I'm afloat at 3-3 and third in my league in points. I'm getting killed in points allowed, and that's one thing we all can agree is luck.I agree completely that more skillful players create their own luck. Individual owners get lucky one season here and there, while shrewd owners seem to be lucky every other year or so.

That issue with points allowed is exactly why I prefer, and play in, a total points league. I don't like the increased luck factor of a head to head league. Our league has been total points since inception in the early nineties, and I won't consider a change for that reason.Head to head has its advantages I guess, in terms of keeping teams competitive to the end, but I don't like relying on the luck of the schedule.Best of luck though.

I'm the Commissioner in the league, and I made sure the prizes are equally distributed between head-to-head, total points, and weekly top finishes. Total points rewards year-long supremacy and greatly decreases luck, head-to-head obviously gives you a focus for rooting that week and resembles real football the closest, and weekly prizes helps keep teams that started real slow have more interest in the second half of seasons. To me, the best of all worlds.

 

[Xenopax]

I drafted Steve Smith, Housh, and Braylon Edwards in a PPR league so I think I won the wide receiver draft award.

Yeah, let's not go into the rest of the draft... but those three have managed to keep my record perfect.