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"Best Players/Schedule for FF Playoffs" (1 Viewer)

P

PhantomJB

Footballguy
Lots of threads / talk about who is going to blow up down the stretch and in Wks 14-16.

Please help me find where has it ever been documented that this is a winning strategy.

Exhibit A: Phillip Rivers

In Wk 6, Shaun Hill and the Detroit Lions hang 44 points on the St. Louis Rams with a dinged up Jahvid Best and Megatron. The VERY NEXT WEEK, the NFL's leading QB Phillip Rivers gets LT Marcus McNeil back, goes to St. Louis and gets sacked SEVEN times en route to his worst game of the season.

Exhibit B: Kyle Orton

After lighting up TEN and BAL defenses in Wks 4-5, on the road, for OVER 600 YDS passing, with zero running game to speak of, Kyle Orton then comes home to the friendly confines of Mile High Stadium, gets Moreno back at RB, and proceeds to complete 37 percent of his passes the next two games against OAK and a NYJ defense that Favre rang up 3 TD's the week before.

Here's my point. Get studs in top offenses. Play them always. Pray to FF gods that you have been a good person and deserve to win this year.

All this maneuvering trying to correlate FF schedules to performance will just cause undue stress. With no happy ending.

 
PhantomJB said:
Please help me find where has it ever been documented that this is a winning strategy.
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By and large, it isn't. Folks get way too caught up in SOS, both in pre-season and during the season. Things often turn out the way they are least expected - that's why they play the games.
 
SOS to me is more important for Defense and Running Back. Sometimes the garbage time QB thing gets you mad points too and that is sometimes very unpredictible, see Carson Palmer this week vs Atlanta

Also, Marcus McNeil didnt play for the Chargers vs the Rams, he was still on the roster exempt list and Malcolm Floyd and Anotinio Gates missed alot of time vs the Rams.

 
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This worked great for me last year. Case in point Beanie Wells with his incredible playoff schedule. Also my carefully picked DSTs (based on schedule) were key for 10+ points per playoff week.

I live by the SOS for playoffs for all of my non-"no brainer" positions. I'm going to start Peyton Manning and Chris Johnson of course, but you better believe this will factor into my flex, WR2, and DST position considerations. I hope my playoff opponents oversimplify it as you're doing.

 
NatronIsMean said:
This worked great for me last year. Case in point Beanie Wells with his incredible playoff schedule. Also my carefully picked DSTs (based on schedule) were key for 10+ points per playoff week.

I live by the SOS for playoffs for all of my non-"no brainer" positions. I'm going to start Peyton Manning and Chris Johnson of course, but you better believe this will factor into my flex, WR2, and DST position considerations. I hope my playoff opponents oversimplify it as you're doing.
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Um. Beanie Wells also had Kurt Warner at quarterback. Nice oversimplification.
 
I need one win in the next six weeks to lock up a playoff berth.

It's logical for me to look ahead. I don't want to drop someone who may be facing a tough weeks 9-12 if he's going to come roaring back in weeks 13-16, once an opponent has grabbed him off waivers. For guys like Ks, TEs, DSTs... smart to lock them up now.

 
I don't think there's anything wrong with factoring in future schedules when deciding on who MAY have more value. It's not the only factor, or even the primary factor, but it is a factor.

ETA: Could I possibly have worked the word "factor" any more into a 2 sentence post?

 
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Buffalo vs Baltimore last week was a good example of what should have been a somewhat low scoring game with plenty of rushing yards for Baltimore. Was thinking 24-3..or 21-10 type of game.

Instead it was a shootout with 6 TDs passes. Can`t predict these things.

 
Great players typically have great seasons because they put up solid numbers against good defenses, and blow up against bad defenses. LT's record breaking season was in large part due to a string of eight weeks that included games against Cleveland, STL, Cincy (remember this is back when Cincy's defense was awful), KC, Oakland, Buffalo, and Denver.

Adrian Peterson's 5 best games in the last two seasons have come against Cleveland, Detroit, Detroit, St Louis, and Chicago.

To use one of your guys...

Philip Rivers have come against Cleveland, Baltimore, Seattle, Jacksonville, and Kansas City

Matchups aren't a 100% thing. Nothing in this game is. But in general, a better matchup provides (often significantly) better results. The biggest error people have with predicting playoff schedules is trying to do it before the season starts, because defenses are so unpredictable from one year to the next. People wouldn't have predicted that the Redskins, Patriots, Seahawks, and Jags would four of the worst six pass defenses in the league this year.

 
PhantomJB said:
NatronIsMean said:
This worked great for me last year. Case in point Beanie Wells with his incredible playoff schedule. Also my carefully picked DSTs (based on schedule) were key for 10+ points per playoff week.

I live by the SOS for playoffs for all of my non-"no brainer" positions. I'm going to start Peyton Manning and Chris Johnson of course, but you better believe this will factor into my flex, WR2, and DST position considerations. I hope my playoff opponents oversimplify it as you're doing.
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Um. Beanie Wells also had Kurt Warner at quarterback. Nice oversimplification.
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How is Beanie from last year a bad example of this?! I don't follow your point. The Arizona schedule was cake last year in the playoffs, and Beanie didn't disappoint. Beanie was unreliable up until those playoffs as well, which lends credence to the "schedule matters a lot with RBs" theory.So you look for RBs with the 2010 version of the Arizona 2009 playoff schedule and I am willing to bet it will pan out more often than not.

 
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PhantomJB said:
Lots of threads / talk about who is going to blow up down the stretch and in Wks 14-16.

Please help me find where has it ever been documented that this is a winning strategy.

Exhibit A: Phillip Rivers

In Wk 6, Shaun Hill and the Detroit Lions hang 44 points on the St. Louis Rams with a dinged up Jahvid Best and Megatron. The VERY NEXT WEEK, the NFL's leading QB Phillip Rivers gets LT Marcus McNeil back, goes to St. Louis and gets sacked SEVEN times en route to his worst game of the season.

Exhibit B: Kyle Orton

After lighting up TEN and BAL defenses in Wks 4-5, on the road, for OVER 600 YDS passing, with zero running game to speak of, Kyle Orton then comes home to the friendly confines of Mile High Stadium, gets Moreno back at RB, and proceeds to complete 37 percent of his passes the next two games against OAK and a NYJ defense that Favre rang up 3 TD's the week before.

Here's my point. Get studs in top offenses. Play them always. Pray to FF gods that you have been a good person and deserve to win this year.

All this maneuvering trying to correlate FF schedules to performance will just cause undue stress. With no happy ending.
Click to expand...
So what function do you see this message board providing?
 
zamboni said:
NatronIsMean said:
I live by the SOS for playoffs for all of my non-"no brainer" positions.
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That I can agree with. For non-obvious starters, to break the tie in whom to start, I do take into account the (hopefully) better matchup.
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I just tend to take it one step further and actually target trades for those guys for trades. One such guy is Knowshon Moreno. He would have been cheaper a week ago, but his owners may be worried about the Denver implosion. Here's the playoffs (rank against the run): 14: @ARI (29)15: @OAK (31)16: HOU (24)
 
Another guy is Felix Jones. He's lower now after the NYG game. Here's the stretch run and playoffs:

11: DET (32)

12: NO (28)

13: @IND (26)

14: PHI (22)

15: WAS (20)

16: @ARI (29)

He and Knowshon are guys you could buy now for a fair value and then pop into your RB2 or flex come playoff time for the tasty matchups.

 
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So let me get this straight. You honestly believe that factoring in SOS late in the season is a worthless cause. Why on earth would you believe that? Other than citing some random examples of times it didn't work.

By your line of thought, RBX has the same value facing the Jets, Steelers and Giants as a similarly talented and FPPG RB facing the Raiders, Colts and Bucs. It's illogical.

 
for playoffs it is way more advantagous to look at warm weather places and domes then predict SOS in 8 weeks. terrible weather can derail your title hopes way more then SOS can.

 
You also want players on teams that are in the real playoff hunt and fighting for a spot so they are less likely to rest their starters.

 
SOS in preseason is silly. Early in the season it has a slight chance of being helpful. However, bye the time you reach the mid point of the season, 3 things have happened:

1) Defenses and their strengths and weaknesses start to show (so SOS becomes more accurate as the season progresses for THAT SEASON only)

2) Offenses and their usage patterns, success, ability to sustain drives, offensive line play, etc. all become more stable and are at least somewhat reasonably indicative of those things moving forward. Just as an example, it is fairly certain that Torain, if he remains healthy will see 18-22 carries per game. He wont play much on passing downs, but seems to be an early down favorite and as such, has "estimated" value based on those assumptions moving forward - and into the playoffs, where it appears that he has a fairly easy schedule. While the same usage pattern can certainly be said of Cedric Benson, the fact that he faces 2 of the top 5 run defenses in weeks 14-16 would reduce his value for that span.

3) Injuries and your other roster strengths and weaknesses have begun to become apparent. For example, using the Torain vs. Benson example above, if you can target either in a trade (suppose you have better WRs than you thought, but lost Ryan Grant early) - which do you want more? Well, if even making the playoffs is a concern, Benson might be the better choice, as he faces some easier matchups (Buffalo, Indy, New Orleans, Miami) in the coming weeks (and has already passed his bye week). Torrain, after facing Detroit, has a bye then faces Philly, followed by 3 defenses that all are in the top 12 in run defense.

My point is simple. SOS is more accurately predictive as you get further into the season. To dismiss it, especially in the FF playoffs, is shortsighted.

 
My point is there is far too much randomness and variability in individual FF outcomes to be able to isolate a single 2-3 game stretch within a season and accurately predict results.

Let's take 2009. Say it's Wk 11 and you're staring at the FF trade deadline. Ronnie Brown just went down and you own Ricky Williams, who just went for over 100 yds each of the last two games. Someone just offered you Thomas Jones straight up for Williams, the NFL's leading rusher on a team that would run over 600 times that year.

I challenge anyone to say they wouldn't have taken that deal in a heartbeat last year. But you go through the SOS analysis anyway, which makes it a slam dunk.

You look at the schedules for Wks 14-16. Ending 2009 NFL rush D ranks in parens.

Jones = TAM (32) / ATL (T10) / IND (24) Avg = 22

Williams = JAC (19) / TEN (T10) / HOU (T10) Avg = 13

Who was the stud during that stretch? Answer: Neither.

The real stud was Ryan Grant. Through Wk 11, Grant had only 893 yds total and 5 TD's. In Weeks 14-16, he ripped off 378 total yds and score 5 TD's facing average rush D's of 13 (CHI / PIT / SEA).

Jones and Williams, on the other hand, would perform almost equally during Wks 14-16. Williams had 267 total yards and 2 TD's, while Jones had 256 total yds and 3 TD's.

Is this an all-exhaustive case study? Of course not, but it does demonstrate short-term randomness amongst roughly equal players and teams (IMO), which is my point.

It would be great if the SOS gurus could demonstrate a pattern in their predictions that is reliable enough for decision-making other than just opinions and claims.

 
FantasyTrader said:
So let me get this straight. You honestly believe that factoring in SOS late in the season is a worthless cause. Why on earth would you believe that? Other than citing some random examples of times it didn't work.By your line of thought, RBX has the same value facing the Jets, Steelers and Giants as a similarly talented and FPPG RB facing the Raiders, Colts and Bucs. It's illogical.
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:goodposting: Obviously it's not 100% accurate, but looking for better match-ups around playoff time is essential for maximizing your points. Come on, everybody wants "studs in top offenses" which is what makes them so hard to come by. If you're lucky you have a stud RB or WR and maybe a stud QB but how many people have "studs" to plug in at RB2 or WR3? Chances are not many, and these are the positions you look to play matchups with come playoff time.
 
PhantomJB said:
My point is there is far too much randomness and variability in individual FF outcomes to be able to isolate a single 2-3 game stretch within a season and accurately predict results.
Click to expand...
This is self-evident. But the same can be said about your "Get studs in top offenses. Play them always." strategy. That "strategy" can also fail to produce top results in a given week. Everyone acknowledges that there is a large degree of luck in this hobby.
 
My main concern each year is getting to the playoffs. At that point, I hope for a little good luck and hope to make some shrewd moves week to week.

 
The_Wolfman said:
FantasyTrader said:
So let me get this straight. You honestly believe that factoring in SOS late in the season is a worthless cause. Why on earth would you believe that? Other than citing some random examples of times it didn't work.

By your line of thought, RBX has the same value facing the Jets, Steelers and Giants as a similarly talented and FPPG RB facing the Raiders, Colts and Bucs. It's illogical.
Click to expand...
:confused: Obviously it's not 100% accurate, but looking for better match-ups around playoff time is essential for maximizing your points. Come on, everybody wants "studs in top offenses" which is what makes them so hard to come by. If you're lucky you have a stud RB or WR and maybe a stud QB but how many people have "studs" to plug in at RB2 or WR3? Chances are not many, and these are the positions you look to play matchups with come playoff time.
Click to expand...
Where is your proof of this? I just showed an example of three roughly equal RB's (T. Jones / R. Williams / R. Grant), on roughly equal teams, where arguably the best RB (Jones) with by far the easiest schedule showed no outperformance whatsoever and in fact got blown away by a lesser back on a pass-heavy team w/ a more difficult schedule.
 
PhantomJB said:
My point is there is far too much randomness and variability in individual FF outcomes to be able to isolate a single 2-3 game stretch within a season and accurately predict results. Let's take 2009. Say it's Wk 11 and you're staring at the FF trade deadline. Ronnie Brown just went down and you own Ricky Williams, who just went for over 100 yds each of the last two games. Someone just offered you Thomas Jones straight up for Williams, the NFL's leading rusher on a team that would run over 600 times that year.I challenge anyone to say they wouldn't have taken that deal in a heartbeat last year. But you go through the SOS analysis anyway, which makes it a slam dunk.You look at the schedules for Wks 14-16. Ending 2009 NFL rush D ranks in parens.Jones = TAM (32) / ATL (T10) / IND (24) Avg = 22Williams = JAC (19) / TEN (T10) / HOU (T10) Avg = 13Who was the stud during that stretch? Answer: Neither. The real stud was Ryan Grant. Through Wk 11, Grant had only 893 yds total and 5 TD's. In Weeks 14-16, he ripped off 378 total yds and score 5 TD's facing average rush D's of 13 (CHI / PIT / SEA).Jones and Williams, on the other hand, would perform almost equally during Wks 14-16. Williams had 267 total yards and 2 TD's, while Jones had 256 total yds and 3 TD's.Is this an all-exhaustive case study? Of course not, but it does demonstrate short-term randomness amongst roughly equal players and teams (IMO), which is my point.It would be great if the SOS gurus could demonstrate a pattern in their predictions that is reliable enough for decision-making other than just opinions and claims.
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I hear what your argument is. The problem I think we run into is that, to prove randomness, you only need to cite one instance of the numbers being random. But to prove player production (+/- that player's average) directly correlates to SOS involves tracking all NFL player stats vs. that defense's average allowed.This topic is compelling to me personally because I'm in the process of putting the finishing touches on an Access database designed to show the correlation that you're insinuating doesn't exist. This database will auto-upload NFL player stats weekly, including the number of pass att., pass yds, pass TD's, rush att., rush yds, rush TD's, rec. targets, receptions, rec. yds, rec. TD's that defenses allow to opposing QB1, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3, TE1 plus or minus the player's average to provide prelim. weekly player projections as well as calculate what % of the time a player over/underperforms that projection against both difficult and easy matchups. It will track a player's Tough Matchup Kill % (the % of time he outperforms his projections vs. a top 10 defense against that position) as well as Easy Matchup Kill % (the % of time he outperforms his projections vs. a bottom 10 defense against that poistion). Give me two years. I'll have concrete evidence SOS matters...more than even most people willing to lend credence to SOS expect I have a feeling.
 
FantasyTrader said:
PhantomJB said:
My point is there is far too much randomness and variability in individual FF outcomes to be able to isolate a single 2-3 game stretch within a season and accurately predict results. Let's take 2009. Say it's Wk 11 and you're staring at the FF trade deadline. Ronnie Brown just went down and you own Ricky Williams, who just went for over 100 yds each of the last two games. Someone just offered you Thomas Jones straight up for Williams, the NFL's leading rusher on a team that would run over 600 times that year.I challenge anyone to say they wouldn't have taken that deal in a heartbeat last year. But you go through the SOS analysis anyway, which makes it a slam dunk.You look at the schedules for Wks 14-16. Ending 2009 NFL rush D ranks in parens.Jones = TAM (32) / ATL (T10) / IND (24) Avg = 22Williams = JAC (19) / TEN (T10) / HOU (T10) Avg = 13Who was the stud during that stretch? Answer: Neither. The real stud was Ryan Grant. Through Wk 11, Grant had only 893 yds total and 5 TD's. In Weeks 14-16, he ripped off 378 total yds and score 5 TD's facing average rush D's of 13 (CHI / PIT / SEA).Jones and Williams, on the other hand, would perform almost equally during Wks 14-16. Williams had 267 total yards and 2 TD's, while Jones had 256 total yds and 3 TD's.Is this an all-exhaustive case study? Of course not, but it does demonstrate short-term randomness amongst roughly equal players and teams (IMO), which is my point.It would be great if the SOS gurus could demonstrate a pattern in their predictions that is reliable enough for decision-making other than just opinions and claims.
Click to expand...
I hear what your argument is. The problem I think we run into is that, to prove randomness, you only need to cite one instance of the numbers being random. But to prove player production (+/- that player's average) directly correlates to SOS involves tracking all NFL player stats vs. that defense's average allowed.This topic is compelling to me personally because I'm in the process of putting the finishing touches on an Access database designed to show the correlation that you're insinuating doesn't exist. This database will auto-upload NFL player stats weekly, including the number of pass att., pass yds, pass TD's, rush att., rush yds, rush TD's, rec. targets, receptions, rec. yds, rec. TD's that defenses allow to opposing QB1, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3, TE1 plus or minus the player's average to provide prelim. weekly player projections as well as calculate what % of the time a player over/underperforms that projection against both difficult and easy matchups. It will track a player's Tough Matchup Kill % (the % of time he outperforms his projections vs. a top 10 defense against that position) as well as Easy Matchup Kill % (the % of time he outperforms his projections vs. a bottom 10 defense against that poistion). Give me two years. I'll have concrete evidence SOS matters...more than even most people willing to lend credence to SOS expect I have a feeling.
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Can you not take the PFR game logs and upload them in order to analyze past seasons?
 
Yes, it'll have historical weekly stats uploaded from '07-'09, but that's not what we're interested in for the purposes of this discussion. We're interested in, to what degree, what the defense is allowing that position impacts a player's stats relative to his average.

And my DB isn't built to do that historically - only in real time.

 
azgroover said:
My main concern each year is getting to the playoffs. At that point, I hope for a little good luck and hope to make some shrewd moves week to week.
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That's generally my strategy, too. We've all seen how often the best team doesn't win the championship. Get to the playoffs, and sit back and relax.That said, I generally agree with the OP, but I also still check the match-ups for weeks 13-16 when determining who I want to trade for, roll with, trade away, etc. I did it multiple times today. But, like another poster said, it's far from the primary factor.

 
I am confident that there is a significant positive correlation between defensive performance in weeks 1-13 and weeks 14-16. Therefore, you should take it into account; it's a real, measurable factor.

The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

 
PhantomJB said:
I just showed an example of three roughly equal RB's (T. Jones / R. Williams / R. Grant), on roughly equal teams, where arguably the best RB (Jones) with by far the easiest schedule showed no outperformance whatsoever and in fact got blown away by a lesser back on a pass-heavy team w/ a more difficult schedule.
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This is a good point. That's why when my leaguemate offers me his 1st round pick for my 14th rounder next year I'm going to say no way buddy. I mean, Darren Mcfadden is demolishing MJD this year, so that obviously proves that there is no correlation between FF draft position and performance.I've also applied the same logic to poker and am thinking about going pro. The basis of my theory is that this one time I was dealt pocket aces and I lost to some joker who hit trip 6's on the flop. So now, I always fold pocket aces while all those other suckers continue to play them. Pocket aces don't win every time, so why would you stay in the hand?
 
FreeBaGeL said:
PhantomJB said:
I just showed an example of three roughly equal RB's (T. Jones / R. Williams / R. Grant), on roughly equal teams, where arguably the best RB (Jones) with by far the easiest schedule showed no outperformance whatsoever and in fact got blown away by a lesser back on a pass-heavy team w/ a more difficult schedule.
Click to expand...
This is a good point. That's why when my leaguemate offers me his 1st round pick for my 14th rounder next year I'm going to say no way buddy. I mean, Darren Mcfadden is demolishing MJD this year, so that obviously proves that there is no correlation between FF draft position and performance.I've also applied the same logic to poker and am thinking about going pro. The basis of my theory is that this one time I was dealt pocket aces and I lost to some joker who hit trip 6's on the flop. So now, I always fold pocket aces while all those other suckers continue to play them. Pocket aces don't win every time, so why would you stay in the hand?
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/thread
 
PhantomJB said:
Where is your proof of this? I just showed an example of three roughly equal RB's (T. Jones / R. Williams / R. Grant), on roughly equal teams, where arguably the best RB (Jones) with by far the easiest schedule showed no outperformance whatsoever and in fact got blown away by a lesser back on a pass-heavy team w/ a more difficult schedule.
Click to expand...
I need to prove common sense? You are naming ONE example. If I have two running backs of roughly the same talent in similar offenses and RB1 goes against the best rushing D 100 times and RB2 goes against the worst rushing D 100 times the majority of times RB2 will score more points. Will it happen every time? No. But statistically speaking you have the best chance to score the most points by going with RB2 and his matchup.
 
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