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2023 Rookies - Who are the best route runners? (1 Viewer)

T

tangfoot

Living Slackmaster
It's Shrine Bowl week, and that means that it's time to start my annual rookie WR evaluation. Last year's thread: 2022 Rookies - Who are the best route runners?

See the end of this thread for 2023 rookie rankings

For the past few years I've been keeping a simple Notepad file with the names of each incoming rookie WR that gets accolades (or criticism) for their route running. I have expanded my technique last year and have refined it again for 2023.

Methodology​

I'm not a football analyst. I do not watch college football apart from a few games per season. I do not watch film. I do not crunch numbers. I let the people who are paid to do those things, do those things...and then I read what they have to say.
A huge shout out to @Faust in this endeavor. I basically only read about incoming rookies here in the Shark Pool, and the articles he links are 95% of my source material. I also listen to a lot of pre-draft podcasts and will note those comments where appropriate.

Scoring system​

This isn't rocket surgery. If an article lists a player as having skills at route running, I note it and give them a +1. If they are critical of a player's route running, I give them a -1. Some writers do both and I present these as neutral.
As I read about these players I copy and paste the writer's exact words in my file and simply tally up the score afterwards.

Drawbacks​

Because I don't watch or even pay attention to the college football season, I don't start reading about players until after the national championship game. Prior to that I'm laser focused on NFL players and my myriad dynasty teams. I list this as a drawback for a couple reasons. (1) It ignores what pundits say weekly throughout the season, I guess this could be considered both good and bad because it doesn't taint my opinion in September. (2) In previous years if a player had a fantastic week at the Shrine Bowl or Senior Bowl, SO MANY articles are written touting their skills. I have smoothed that this year by only accepting a single article per day of practice during these events, and I'm somewhat confident that most of the players I have listed in red below were artificially inflated in my system.

Caveats​

This is probably the exact opposite of a scientific analysis. I'm perusing curated content on a specific site that doesn't mention every player and certainly doesn't catch every article for every player, no matter how good Faust is.
I am not advocating that you bump my highest-scored player to the top of your dynasty drafts, but this is another tool in the arsenal of evaluation.

History​

Players that I feel like I have identified and bumped up a bit higher than other analysts during the past few years (in order by score):
2019 - Deebo Samuel, Terry McLaurin, Riley Ridley
2020 - Jerry Jeudy, Van Jefferson, KJ Hill, Justin Jefferson
2021 - Rashod Bateman, Ja'marr Chase, Dwayne Eskeridge, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Davonta Smith, Elijah Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rondale Moore, Demeric Felton
2022 - Chris Olave, Jahan Dotson, David Bell, Garrett Wilson, Skyy Moore, Jameson Williams, Christian Watson
 
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2023 Rookies​

CEDRIC TILLMAN
+ "He runs his routes well"
- "Limited route tree"
- "can sometimes get stuck on a route"

CHARLIE JONES
+/- "a timing route-runner"
+/- "adequate as a route runner"
+/- "Runs routes with hip sink and crisp cuts" "will have trouble shedding tight, press-man coverage due to his lack of suddenness and blow-by speed"

JAXON FLAXON WAXON SMITH-NJIGBA
+ "plays faster than his 40-time will indicate due to his route-running prowess", "detailed route runner with crafty footwork"
+ "a polished route runner"
+ "As a pure route runner, Smith-Njigba stands out"
+ "Extremely refined route runner"
+ "very polished as a route runner"
+ "a route technician with terrific ball skills and a knack for working to open space in coverage"
+ "quick and sudden at the top of his routes...knows how to create separation with his route running and body positioning"
+ "Nuanced route runner who creates separation well" - POSSIBLY A RANDOM TWITTER DUDE
- "lacks the shake to separate underneath and the speed to run past defenses", "will need to fine-tune his route running"

JAYLIN HYATT
- "ordinary getting in and out of intermediate breaks"
+/- "surprisingly savvy route runner on the routes he was asked to run"

JONATHAN MINGO
+/- "ran vertical routes, slants and crossers well enough"
+ "has shown tremendous promise in his route-running, with which he has consistently created separation"
+ "excels at the little things when it comes to route running"
+ "220-pound men aren’t supposed to have these feet"
+ "Efficient footwork allows him to perform a plethora of savvy releases", "Understands the nuances of route-running"
- "needs to continue developing as a route runner and separator"
- "footwork is average at best", "route-running also looked suspect at times, often rounding out his breaks", "relied too much on his speed and power to gain separation"
- "going to have to become much more of a technician at the line of scrimmage and at the route stem, and significantly diversify his route tree"
- "Does not separate"
- "Takes too many steps and wastes time", "Doesn't always fly out of route breaks effectively"
- "route tree is somewhat limited...he is not a standout route-running technician"

JORDAN ADDISON
+ "He is a true No. 1 receiver who can run all the routes in the book." "graded best on slants, crossing routes and out-routes"
+ "His route running though is something to behold"
+ "As a route runner Addison is extremely silky"
+ "He's an outstanding route-runner"
+ "precise route running is his forte"
+ "defining trait is certainly his ability to create separation in and out of his breaks"
+ "route running features acceleration, dynamic steering and sudden turns"
+ "very smooth, polished route runner"
+ "fluidity as a route runner allows him to waste little to no space", "continued to look explosive and fluid running routes at all three levels", "technically sound as it gets from a route running standpoint relative to the rest of this draft class"
+ "one of the elite route runners in this class" - POSSIBLY A RANDOM DUDE ON TWITTER
+/- "Ran a variety of different routes to different levels of the field but primarily runs routes within ten yards of the line of scrimmage" "can struggle to stack defenders in his hip when running routes down the field"

JOSH DOWNS
+/- "route running is effective and fun to watch, coaches will need him to become more disciplined and efficient"
+ "savvy route-runner who shows the quickness and attention to detail to create separation"
+ "Downs has great route running ability"
+ "crisp route running"
+ "a technician as a route runner and uses every part of his routes as a weapon"
+/- "Separation burst gains space through turns/cuts", "Footwork and change of direction are sudden and sharp", "Needs to be more disciplined in route running"
+/- “crafty and sudden route-runner”, “great at alternating his speed and pace throughout the route stem”, “can be knocked off his route stem when contacted”, “questions on how advanced his release package is”

KAYSHON BOUTTE
+ "savvy route runner"
- "his route technique needs more consistency."
- "Could be a weapon if he commits himself to running routes with more snap/hip sink, but at the moment looks like he might struggle to get separation from pro cornerbacks"

MARVIN MIMS
+/- "Smooth operator getting through his routes", "Needs to tighten up route running underneath"
+/- "route tree was not the most developed, it was clear that he became a more fluid route runner with time."
+/- "A reliable route runner"
+/- “does well to process on the fly as a route-runner and attack space to make himself available to the quarterback.”, “has the twitch, fluidity, and elusiveness to thrive as a route-runner and create separation with consistency.”, “ability to play through contact as a route-runner will be a concern”
- “doesn’t have a diverse route tree and press coverage at the next level could give him real issues”
+ "Explosive...burst in his routes"


QUENTIN JOHNSON
+/- "not too shabby when running a slant or a hitch"
+/- "smooth route running and mobility for a player his size", "takes too many steps setting something up"
+/- "excellent ability to drop his hips or change directions", "hard to know if he can handle a full NFL-route tree"
+/- "creates separation from coverage with relative ease", "If a cornerback gets physical with him in press-man coverage, Johnston gets thrown off his route"
+ "Very sharp and effective on both in-breaking and out-breaking routes", "Knows how to stack opponents to get downfield"
- "needs a specific route tree", "Long release steps allow press to tag him", "Struggles to create leverage and deception in his routes", "Listless getting out of breaks"
- "route refinement will be priority", "needs to work on his ability to sell his routes better"
- "does not always create immediate separation at the line of scrimmage"

RASHEE RICE
+ "His knack ... executing quality routes makes Rice one of the more productive receivers in this draft class.", "a nightmare to cover on slant routes"
+ "put his route tree on display"
+/- "combines impressive size and physicality with attention to detail as a route runner" "could potentially struggle to get consistent separation against man coverage"
+/- "a quality route-runner that is fully capable of executing any route" "the most notable concern is developing and expanding his route tree."
- "tendency for nonchalant running on intermediate routes"
- "didn't run a variety of routes"
- "route tree was limited"
- "could also improve on cutting out some false steps at the top of his routes, especially when he makes his cuts"
- "route tree isn’t fully developed", "doesn’t do a great job separating with speed"
- "Not a clean, agile route-runner"
- "inconsistencies gearing down on comebacks or curls, needing too many steps at times, or losing his balance"
+/- "a savvy route runner", "concerns about his ability to run an NFL-level route tree"
+/- "impressive savvy as a route runner", "don’t know whether the savvy he flashed on vertical routes would translate"

(Not in any way a) TANK DELL
+ "has exceptional quickness throughout his routes"
- "lacks a sizeable route tree while running a lot of go's, curls, bubbles, and fewer in breaking routes"
- "His route running is also sloppy."
- "has constantly ran a limited route tree."

ZAY FLOWERS
+/- "displays remarkable change of directions skills to change his speeds, both when running routes and after the catch", "runs a variety of routes to all areas of the field and can generate separation consistently with all of them" "Has made significant strides as a route runner to add nuance to routes", "does not have much experience facing Press-Jam coverage at the line of scrimmage"
+/- "best described as a good collegiate route runner, but isn’t yet a true technician"
+/- "creates separation up and down the route tree with his movement skills", "an unlimited route tree" "Rounds off too many in-breaking routes. Not always sharp on his slants or in-breakers."
+/- "Sudden feet to slip press and race ahead of coverage", "Stair-steps man coverage out of leveraged positioning", "Routes are fast and maintain their momentum through turns", "Routes need better salesmanship and attention to detail"
+ "strong route runner who creates separation at the top of his route, shows burst/explosion and ability to create space, good stair step to create space on over/crossing routes", "runs diverse route tree at every level"
+ "His route running is crisp and explosive while taking advantage of the defenders’ leverage."
+ "Flowers is the best pure separator in the draft class."
+ "polished with his route running skills very electric"
+ "excels in both route running and yards after the catch"
+ "one of the best route runners in this year's NFL Draft"
+ "unique change of direction speed that allowed him to consistently win in his routes"
 
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Changelog
8 February - Added Jordan Addison and JSN, Updated Zay Flowers
17 April - Tons of updates - Moved players with only a single quote to this post.

DEMARIO DOUGLAS
+ "His ability to fire in and then out of breaks was impressive, and he consistently separated from opponents"

MITCHELL TINSLEY
+ "visibly crisp route runner, and his natural separation ability lifts his floor"

TYLER SCOTT
+ "a smart route runner"

Zakhari Franklin
+ "quick, elusive, and technically-savvy route-runner who knows how to release and create separation at the stem on intermediate throws"
Zavier Hutchinson
+ "he more than compensates for with route-running and prowess after the catch"
 
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tangfoot said:

​


Zay Flowers​

+/- "displays remarkable change of directions skills to change his speeds, both when running routes and after the catch", "runs a variety of routes to all areas of the field and can generate separation consistently with all of them" "Has made significant strides as a route runner to add nuance to routes", "does not have much experience facing Press-Jam coverage at the line of scrimmage" - https://247sports.com/college/bosto...-report-nfl-draft-2023-190378091/#190378091_2
Click to expand...
Great thread idea @tangfoot As a suggestion, most articles will have at least one negative. In the example above I would rate it based on the preponderance of the evidence. I also I would ignore any statements like "doesn't have experience" (none have experience against NFL caliber corners for example).
 
BassNBrew said:
tangfoot said:

​


Zay Flowers​

+/- "displays remarkable change of directions skills to change his speeds, both when running routes and after the catch", "runs a variety of routes to all areas of the field and can generate separation consistently with all of them" "Has made significant strides as a route runner to add nuance to routes", "does not have much experience facing Press-Jam coverage at the line of scrimmage" - https://247sports.com/college/bosto...-report-nfl-draft-2023-190378091/#190378091_2
Click to expand...
Great thread idea @tangfoot As a suggestion, most articles will have at least one negative. In the example above I would rate it based on the preponderance of the evidence. I also I would ignore any statements like "doesn't have experience" (none have experience against NFL caliber corners for example).
Click to expand...
Agreed, and on reflection I've changed this negative score to neutral. Until the NFL draft I'm merely in information gathering mode, and will go back to all my source information when it comes time to assign a score and ranking based on this information.
 
Will be watching, this thread pretty much solidified my opinions last year and saw me get Olave in my rookie draft.

What would also be useful to do is to look back at players who you've picked out as rated negatively/neutral who've gone on to be productive, and see if there's any sort of common trend among them, be it landing spot (QB, place in WR pecking order, usage, strength of opposition etc), physical attributes, whatever, so we can try to work out who might overcome a perceived lack of route-based skills
 
I haven't done my deep dive yet, but Addison stuck out to me in the summer. .

Quentin Johnson stood out to me for the opposite reason: Long strider who needs big windows to operate. I wasn't high on Metcalf and he's panned out. Mike Evans is also a bit like this. The long striders scare me though. Seen a lot of busts in this territory (Robert Meachem, Justin Hunter, Roy Williams, Sidney Rice, etc).

If he can recapture his top form, Dontayvion Wicks is interesting. "Big body with fluidity" is a formula that I like at WR, which has correlated with MANY success stories I've been high on from the start (Dez, Demaryius, Crabtree, JuJu, AJ Brown, Aiyuk, Deebo to name a few).

Wicks had really good film in 2021 and then sort of crashed out in 2022.

His Senior Bowl clips suggest there's still some talent to work with there though. You can see him shedding his man on a variety of routes:

www.youtube.com

Don’Tayvion Wicks WR Virginia - Senior Bowl 2023 Highlights

Don’tayvion Wicks showed his dominance all week at the Senior Bowl!Our Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user?u=86418269Sign up for PrizePicks & Underdog Fant...
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com

He's not Jaylen Waddle with the juice, but moves well for a 6'1" 210 pound WR. I think he's kind of a Josh Palmer-Michael Thomas type of prospect. Those guys had height and some bulk, but also could separate. Thomas went in the 2nd round. Palmer in the 3rd. I think Wicks goes 3rd-4th. I'm curious to see how highly teams rate him. Small arrow up if someone feels comfortable burning a 3rd on him. Arrow down if he's a 4th or later.

I'll have more thoughts on this topic post-draft after I've looked at everyone.
 
Updating this today and I have a question for you guys.

I'm bumping up against the character limit for a single post, would you prefer that I keep the current format with a direct quote about a player AND include the web link I took it from, or should I delete the links to make the post a bit cleaner and allow for more players/quotes in a single post?
 
tangfoot said:
Updating this today and I have a question for you guys.

I'm bumping up against the character limit for a single post, would you prefer that I keep the current format with a direct quote about a player AND include the web link I took it from, or should I delete the links to make the post a bit cleaner and allow for more players/quotes in a single post?
Click to expand...

Drop the links. I’m not super tech savvy but IME links do something that messes up the character count big time.
 
You could separate it into multiple posts in this thread. Maybe just move some guys into the next post (which has the changelog) to stay under the character limit.
 
Wigglytuff's Gruff said:
Ilov80s said:
JSN is clearly the best route runner, right? Like he gets open in less than 2 seconds every play?
Click to expand...
As a route runner, only Devonta Smith can hold a candle to him in the last 3 draft classes in my eyes.
Click to expand...

My system had Smith equal to Amon-Ra, and behind Chase and Bateman in his class.
Olave has the highest "score" of anyone I've tracked so far, but that's primarily because I was a lot more meticulous researching the last two draft classes. It's looking like JSN, Addison and Flowers will all slot in just behind Olave for total positive quotes.
 
Route running "score" + draft capital + landing spot + personal bias = my ranking of WRs:

1. JSN
2. Addison
---
3/4. QJ and Zay in whichever order you prefer. Just depends on what you're looking for with this pick
---
5. Mingo - draft capital ranking, would put him behind Downs in terms of routes
6. Josh Downs - "best" route runner after the 1st rounders
7. Mims
8. Rice - not good at running routes, but draft capital keeps him in this tier
---
9. Jayden Reed - I didn't read anything about him in the entire pre-draft process, will spend some time researching
---
Everyone else
 
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