After seeing Aaron Rodgers' success after backing up Brett for several years I think he stays put. Especially with the new CBA driving down his cost. Luck would sit for probably 2 years and then see where he is at.
I don't get why people do this. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is awesome. Yes, he sat for awhile. This does not mean he is awesome because he sat for awhile, nor does it mean that in order to be awesome, you have to sit for awhile. Rodgers was a late 1st round pick with a weird delivery and question marks -
Luck is an absolute lock for #1 overall and touted as the next Peyton Manning. There is no way he is sitting 1-2 years. The situations are not comparable.
Let's look at the last #1 QBs taken first overall.2011: Cam Newton (Looks to be the best pick since Manning)
2010: Sam Bradford (Dealing with injuries, yet to have winning season)
2009: Matt Stafford (Dealing with injuries, yet to get to playoffs)
2007: Jamarcus Russell (BUST)
2005: Alex Smith (No idea here)
2004: Eli Manning (Won a SB)
2003: Carson Palmer (Decent, but a lot of down seasons)
2001: Michael Vick (Jail for 2 years, yet to get to SB)
1999: Tim Couch (BUST)
1998: Peyton Manning (STUD)
To say a QB is a lock for #1 overall and willI be successful is not quite realistic. There a ton of guys that have been hyped as the #1 overall that haven't produced in the list above, 2 out of 10 #1 overall QBs are not even in the league anymore. 2 of 10 have actually made it to the Superbowl, and a bunch in between. Now, it can be argued that when the Colts drafted Manning in 1998 they immediately started him for the full 16 games, BUT if you look at the previous two seasons, the Colts were on QB carousel with 3 different starters in 1997 and 2 different starters in 1996. This is a COMPLETELY different situation when you have a pro-bowl caliber SB winning QB already on the roster.
This isn't similar to Montana and Favre, only from the aspect that Young and Rodgers both sat behind those guys for a couple of years. The reality is the Colts do not know the extent of the injury on Peyton's career yet. They are going to be smart about it and evaluate it. If he can play, he stays. No way the Colts would take a #1 draft pick and get rid of their franchise on the belief that Luck will do better with no evidence. It's in the Colts best interest to keep Manning, have Luck sit behind him, and then possibly trade Manning in a year or so after having Luck learn from him.
Edit: clarify the first sentence intention to state the #1250 pick does not guarantee stardom