Best Return Games of All Time (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=535

Which teams have had the best return games since the merger? How have punt returns and kickoff returns changed over the years? How in the world did the 2007 Chicago Bears returners wind up in the bottom five of one list and the top five of another? And finally, did you know the greatest return season since the merger happened last year? Sit back, relax, and get ready to hear about some returners.

Let’s begin with some league wide data on kickoff returns. The main stats — kickoff returns, kickoff return yards and kickoff return TDs — do a pretty great job on capturing the ability of a kickoff returner. Unfortunately, our database currently does not have kickoff return fumbles separated out from regular return fumbles. So to rate kickoff returns, we’re going to use adjusted yards per kickoff return, which I’m pretty sure I just created. The same logic applies to adjusted yards per kickoff return as it does to adjusted yards per pass attempt — a touchdown is worth about ten yards. So the formula is simply (Kickoff Return Yards + 10 * Kickoff Return Touchdowns) / Kickoff Returns. Practically, this has little effect compared to simply using yards per kickoff return, but it’s Just Plain Right, so that’s what we’ll do.

KR	  KR Yd	Y/KR	 KR TD  AY/KR2007	2037	46132	22.65	 25	22.772006	2037	45908	22.54	  9	22.582005	2137	47626	22.29	 12	22.342004	2155	46740	21.69	 17	21.772003	2161	46595	21.56	 13	21.622002	2205	48020	21.78	 17	21.852001	1997	43233	21.65	 10	21.702000	2040	44727	21.93	 15	22.001999	2035	43196	21.23	 13	21.291998	1857	41357	22.27	 18	22.371997	1890	41587	22.00	 14	22.081996	1919	42164	21.97	  9	22.021995	2043	43767	21.42	  9	21.471994	1842	39096	21.22	 16	21.311993	1381	26888	19.47	  4	19.501992	1393	27059	19.42	  6	19.471991	1487	28094	18.89	  8	18.951990	1632	31228	19.13	  6	19.171989	1725	33473	19.40	  9	19.461988	1695	33820	19.95	  8	20.001987	1681	32664	19.43	  6	19.471986	1693	33447	19.76	  7	19.801985	1732	36363	20.99	  8	21.041984	1744	34544	19.81	  5	19.841983	1781	34816	19.55	  3	19.571982	 975	19589	20.09	  2	20.111981	1709	34681	20.29	  5	20.321980	1764	35143	19.92	  8	19.971979	1781	36110	20.28	  6	20.311978	1633	34915	21.38	  7	21.421977	1374	29396	21.39	 11	21.471976	1527	32743	21.44	  2	21.461975	1471	32993	22.43	  7	22.481974	1390	30812	22.17	  4	22.201973	1264	28394	22.46	 10	22.541972	1284	29613	23.06	  6	23.111971	1335	30694	22.99	  9	23.061970	1280	28235	22.06	 15	22.18

Check out the rest of the article here.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Nice work Chase. With all this Josh Cribbs talk lately, I'm starting to wonder if you've become his agent.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Nice work Chase. With all this Josh Cribbs talk lately, I'm starting to wonder if you've become his agent.

My Cribbs talk comes because of this post, when I first ran the numbers. Cribbs himself added 622 yards over the average return man last year. That's by far the most in NFL history. As far as 2007 goes, Cribbs led the league at +622; Hester was second at +276; Andre Davis was third at +269 and Leon Washington was fourth at +248. No one else was over +200. (Hester was at +301 for punt returns, but was -25 at kickoff returns. Roscoe Parrish was 2nd in the league in punt return yards over age, at +199. So Hester led by a pretty huge margin in punt returns, but Cribbs' incredible kick return numbers made him much more valuable).

 

[DawnBTVS]

I'm curious, Chase, is a kick return more valuable over a season than a punt return given average starting position (i.e. seeing Josh Cribbs' value largely because of KR vs. Hester's PR)?

My only reasoning is that a kick return is usually run back for more yards, however, a team with a great defense can get similar/better field position if they are fielding punts around the 25 and averaging even 5 YPR.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm curious, Chase, is a kick return more valuable over a season than a punt return given average starting position (i.e. seeing Josh Cribbs' value largely because of KR vs. Hester's PR)?My only reasoning is that a kick return is usually run back for more yards, however, a team with a great defense can get similar/better field position if they are fielding punts around the 25 and averaging even 5 YPR.

Well, your question unpacks into a couple of things.1) A kickoff returner is never inherently more valuable than a punt returner. Everyone is compared to the league average. So Josh Cribbs' kickoff return numbers are compared to the league average kickoff returner numbers. And Devin Hester's (and Cribbs' too, since he is a PR) numbers are compared to the league average punt returner. As it turns out, Hester was a more valuable PR than Cribbs, but Cribbs was a way, way more valuable KR than PR.A great KR will almost always be more valuable than a great PR, just because of the sheer numbers. There are almost twice as many KRs as PRs every year. One of the reasons great QBs are more valuable than great RBs is because great QBs have attempts almost twice as often as great RBs. Sort of the same thing here. Sixteen KRs since the merger have added 300 or more yards over average; only 3 PRs have. So in some ways, yes, the upside of a great PR is a bit limited. But the reason isn't because a kickoff return is usually run back for more yards, since we're comparing to the league average (although in terms of standard deviation, a KR that's 20% above league average will have more value than a PR that's 20% above league average, even if the number of returns was the same).It should go without saying, but the sum of all KRs or PRs "yards above average" every year is zero.2) Almost every team will have more KRs than PRs each year. I actually had a more complicated answer to part 2, but I think I may have misread your initial question. Does the above answer your question?

 

[css2373]

Amazing stuff, as always. My first thought after reading this, was how did that affect Cleveland's offense and if those gaudy return numbers fall some from last year, what impact will it have on the proficiency of the offense?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Amazing stuff, as always. My first thought after reading this, was how did that affect Cleveland's offense and if those gaudy return numbers fall some from last year, what impact will it have on the proficiency of the offense?

It's possible that it will increase yards and decrease scoring. That's just a guess, though.On Wednesday, I'll be looking at how sustainable gaudy return numbers are from year to year. But regardless of the consistency of return numbers in general, Cribbs' season was basically the KR version of Randy Moss' 23 TDs. So it'd be hard to imagine anything anywhere near that good again.

 

[FUBAR]

This is not a Brees/Rivers comparison. Anderson has been a nobody, and will continue to be a nobody after he gets traded away. If the browns can get a 3rd rounder for him, they should do it. You can blab all you want about him having a 10-6 record, but with a great OLine, good Wr's and the best kick returner in the league, those wins weren't all him.

I dont think there was a QB in the league that was worse than him for the second half of the season.

Cribbs is good but I think Hester has this title until Cribbs can take it from him.

You might want to check Hester's Kick Return stats.

What he has better stats this season, that makes him better? Engram has better stats than Steve Smith, is Engram a better WR? Teams gameplan around Hester. They don't kick the ball to him because of what he can do. And when they do he makes them pay. He changes the entire game he's in because of how good he is. Cribbs hasn't reached that status yet. He had a great season of returns, but he's still no Hester and I doubt you'll get anyone rational to agree with you.Pointing to stats like that is the dumbest way of proving a point there is.

 

[Chase Stuart]

This is not a Brees/Rivers comparison. Anderson has been a nobody, and will continue to be a nobody after he gets traded away. If the browns can get a 3rd rounder for him, they should do it. You can blab all you want about him having a 10-6 record, but with a great OLine, good Wr's and the best kick returner in the league, those wins weren't all him.

I dont think there was a QB in the league that was worse than him for the second half of the season.

Cribbs is good but I think Hester has this title until Cribbs can take it from him.

You might want to check Hester's Kick Return stats.

What he has better stats this season, that makes him better? Engram has better stats than Steve Smith, is Engram a better WR? Teams gameplan around Hester. They don't kick the ball to him because of what he can do. And when they do he makes them pay. He changes the entire game he's in because of how good he is. Cribbs hasn't reached that status yet. He had a great season of returns, but he's still no Hester and I doubt you'll get anyone rational to agree with you.Pointing to stats like that is the dumbest way of proving a point there is.

I think mad sweeney means Hester's the best punt returner. I don't think that's for up for debate. Teams gameplan around him w/r/t punt returns.

 

[DawnBTVS]

I'm curious, Chase, is a kick return more valuable over a season than a punt return given average starting position (i.e. seeing Josh Cribbs' value largely because of KR vs. Hester's PR)?My only reasoning is that a kick return is usually run back for more yards, however, a team with a great defense can get similar/better field position if they are fielding punts around the 25 and averaging even 5 YPR.

Well, your question unpacks into a couple of things.1) A kickoff returner is never inherently more valuable than a punt returner. Everyone is compared to the league average. So Josh Cribbs' kickoff return numbers are compared to the league average kickoff returner numbers. And Devin Hester's (and Cribbs' too, since he is a PR) numbers are compared to the league average punt returner. As it turns out, Hester was a more valuable PR than Cribbs, but Cribbs was a way, way more valuable KR than PR.A great KR will almost always be more valuable than a great PR, just because of the sheer numbers. There are almost twice as many KRs as PRs every year. One of the reasons great QBs are more valuable than great RBs is because great QBs have attempts almost twice as often as great RBs. Sort of the same thing here. Sixteen KRs since the merger have added 300 or more yards over average; only 3 PRs have. So in some ways, yes, the upside of a great PR is a bit limited. But the reason isn't because a kickoff return is usually run back for more yards, since we're comparing to the league average (although in terms of standard deviation, a KR that's 20% above league average will have more value than a PR that's 20% above league average, even if the number of returns was the same).It should go without saying, but the sum of all KRs or PRs "yards above average" every year is zero.2) Almost every team will have more KRs than PRs each year. I actually had a more complicated answer to part 2, but I think I may have misread your initial question. Does the above answer your question?

Yeah, thanks... although that shouldn't discourage you from dishing the complicated answer too Too much information is never a bad thing.

 

[FUBAR]

I think mad sweeney means Hester's the best punt returner. I don't think that's for up for debate. Teams gameplan around him w/r/t punt returns.

I'd think you're right, and he did admit he thought punt, but then he says:

This is not a Brees/Rivers comparison. Anderson has been a nobody, and will continue to be a nobody after he gets traded away. If the browns can get a 3rd rounder for him, they should do it. You can blab all you want about him having a 10-6 record, but with a great OLine, good Wr's and the best kick returner in the league, those wins weren't all him.

I dont think there was a QB in the league that was worse than him for the second half of the season.

Cribbs is good but I think Hester has this title until Cribbs can take it from him.

You might want to check Hester's Kick Return stats.

What he has better stats this season, that makes him better? Engram has better stats than Steve Smith, is Engram a better WR? Teams gameplan around Hester. They don't kick the ball to him because of what he can do. And when they do he makes them pay. He changes the entire game he's in because of how good he is. Cribbs hasn't reached that status yet. He had a great season of returns, but he's still no Hester and I doubt you'll get anyone rational to agree with you.Pointing to stats like that is the dumbest way of proving a point there is.

How else would you like to compare them? Believe it or not, cribbs has been every bit as good as Hester this year, stats show him to be better and you don't have any objective proof to argue against them. Both made the pro bowl this year. While Hester has more fame, Cribbs is every bit as good, he's simply underrated. Can we get back to the subject of this thread?

When teams start giving up field position at the 40 or closer rather than give it to Cribbs then you can start calling him the best. Hester did in two season what no one else has ever done in their careers and changes the way teams play them. When Cribbs does that he can get into the conversation. He had a very good season, but is still not in Hester's range.

If Hester didn't finish the year 41st in the NFC on Kick return average, you'd have a better argument. That's average, which isn't harmed by teams kicking out of bounds. He had less returns of 40+ than A. Allison (2 vs. 3), who had half as many returns. Cribbs had 7 returns of 40+. I'm not insulting Hester here, but for this year, Cribbs did better. I don't see any way you can legitimately dispute that.

I never disputed that Cribbs didn't do better from a stats standpoint. I said that Hester is a better kick returner than Cribbs. He's hands down the best in the league, possibly of all time. He changes the entire game. Cribbs had a great year but he doesn't affect other teams' game like Hester does, not yet at least. Having better stats than him for this season doesn't make them a better returner. There's more to being the best than simple numbers.

Then we decided to stop the hijack, but this is a good place to pick it back up.I don't disagree with his overall point, as an overall returner, Hester is $$$, but Cribbs was the better kick returner last year.

 

[Chase Stuart]

One more thing. This study measures value, as distinct from talent. So if Cribbs had a career year, was lucky, whatever -- his accomplishments, even if not his talent -- were historic.

Now that doesn't get to the question of whether teams squib kick it to Devin Hester. It's undeniable that a 10 yard return by Hester fielded from the 30 is better than a 30 yard return by Cribbs fielded by the 5. But I honestly don't think teams kick it away from Hester all that often and Hester returns the kick for low yardage. That's just a subjective guess, though, and evidence could prove me wrong. Further, Hester should also get some value if teams kick it away from him, and some other Bear falls on the ball at the 40 yard line. But I don't think that happens to Hester all that often, either.

Comparing their actual numbers, Cribbs was clearly far, far ahead of Hester.

As punt returners, Hester has a nice edge. He had 651 yards and 4 TDs on 42 returns. Using the '1 TD is worth 10 yards' rule, that gives Hester a gaudy 16.45 YPR average. That's the highest since '70 by any punt returner with 40+ returns. Only six other players have averaged more with 20+ returns, with only one of them having over 30 returns (Jermaine Lewis, 2000). I rank Hester's 2007 punt return season as the third best since 1970.

Cribbs actually had the third best PR season last year. 30/405/1, for an average of 13.83 AY/A, is obviously very good.

Giving Hester 301 yards over average and Cribbs 136 yards over average (average was 9.29 last year) does a good job, IMO, of weighing Hester's advantages in both punt return average and the number of punt returns. He was over twice as good as Cribbs.

But Cribbs' kick return numbers are just insane. 59/1809/2 gives you 31.00 adjusted yards per kick return. The second most number of KR by a player with that high an average was 32, ironically done last year as well (Andre Davis). Obviously, 59 amazing returns is a lot more valuable than 32, though. Consider the league average return man last year, on 59 returns, would have had 1343 adjusted yards. Well, Cribbs had 486 more adjusted yards than that. Devin Hester, meanwhile, had 43/934/2. Was he trying to take every kickoff to the house, and not maximizing each individual return? Was he going sideways too often? Or was it a result of the squib kick theory? It's hard to say, but those raw numbers are obviously unimpressive since they fall below the league average.

Cribbs was a very good PR last year, and Hester was an unbelievably awesome one. Cribbs was a historically awesome kick returner last year, and Hester was an average one. It's pretty clear to me, that, absent any incredibly far reaching biases in Hester's raw numbers, Cribbs was the much more valuable return man last year.

 

[boubucarow]

A quick study...

Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns.

By my numbers, Cribb's returns led to an average start of the Cleveland 37.8 yard line. Hester's returns led to the Chicago 32.6 yard line on average. Five yards per return is a pretty big difference and I have yet to run any numbers for other returners to determine averages and what may signify a top returner.

When kicking to Cribbs teams short kicked 11 times to other returners and also kicked out of bounds 2 times to result in an overall average start of 37.6 if in included with his returns. Hester was short kicked to other returners 19 times and kicks went out of bounds 8 times resulting in an overall average of 35.5 if included with his returns. (When examining kicking short, I looked at all kicks fielded outside the 20 yard line by teammates and average the ending starting field position).

None of this is an exact science. Cribbs was a better returner last year but teams avoided Hester much more. In addition to the twice as many times Hester was kicked short to teammates and out of bounds, 42% of his returns began past the 10 yard line while only 17% of Cribbs' returns began past the 10 yard line.

My take is that Cribbs was better but the distance is less than the numbers may say. In fact, the avoidance of Hester negates at least half of the difference and brings Hester to within about 2 yards in average starting position. I am a Bears fan to take that with this information as I was open to what the numbers told me. In seeing every game, Hester struggled at the beginning of the season when teams continued to kick short to him as even many of his returns beginning inside the 10 were balls that rolled to him from outside the 10. His first 9 returns resulted in an average starting position of the 23 yard line. The rest of his returns resulted in a 35.6 average starting position. When you include Hester's huge advantage in punt returns, there is no way Cribbs was the better returner last year.

Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns. I would appreciate anyone looking over the numbers. Also, there is no exact way to measure the impact of a great returner and others might not examine it in the manner that I chose to do so.

 

[SSOG]

I think mad sweeney means Hester's the best punt returner. I don't think that's for up for debate. Teams gameplan around him w/r/t punt returns.

It's definitely up to debate. Pac Man was a better punt returner than Hester in 2006.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think mad sweeney means Hester's the best punt returner. I don't think that's for up for debate. Teams gameplan around him w/r/t punt returns.

It's definitely up to debate. Pac Man was a better punt returner than Hester in 2006.

Maybe, maybe not.He certainly wasn't the more valuable punt returner, though. Hester had almost 50% more returns and had the same great rate numbers. It's a lot more impressive (and valuable for the team) to be way above average for 47 punt returns than for 34 PR.

 

[Chase Stuart]

A quick study...Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns.By my numbers, Cribb's returns led to an average start of the Cleveland 37.8 yard line. Hester's returns led to the Chicago 32.6 yard line on average. Five yards per return is a pretty big difference and I have yet to run any numbers for other returners to determine averages and what may signify a top returner.When kicking to Cribbs teams short kicked 11 times to other returners and also kicked out of bounds 2 times to result in an overall average start of 37.6 if in included with his returns. Hester was short kicked to other returners 19 times and kicks went out of bounds 8 times resulting in an overall average of 35.5 if included with his returns. (When examining kicking short, I looked at all kicks fielded outside the 20 yard line by teammates and average the ending starting field position).None of this is an exact science. Cribbs was a better returner last year but teams avoided Hester much more. In addition to the twice as many times Hester was kicked short to teammates and out of bounds, 42% of his returns began past the 10 yard line while only 17% of Cribbs' returns began past the 10 yard line.My take is that Cribbs was better but the distance is less than the numbers may say. In fact, the avoidance of Hester negates at least half of the difference and brings Hester to within about 2 yards in average starting position. I am a Bears fan to take that with this information as I was open to what the numbers told me. In seeing every game, Hester struggled at the beginning of the season when teams continued to kick short to him as even many of his returns beginning inside the 10 were balls that rolled to him from outside the 10. His first 9 returns resulted in an average starting position of the 23 yard line. The rest of his returns resulted in a 35.6 average starting position. When you include Hester's huge advantage in punt returns, there is no way Cribbs was the better returner last year.Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns. I would appreciate anyone looking over the numbers. Also, there is no exact way to measure the impact of a great returner and others might not examine it in the manner that I chose to do so.

Thanks, boubucarow. That's really interesting.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Updated today with the best individual single season and career returners

Yesterday, we looked at a way to measure the value of a good or bad return team, and some of the best return teams of all time. To start today, here are the top 50 individual kickoff returner seasons since the merger:

kr	kryd	krtd AY/KR	LGKR	 KR_VAL year	team59	1809	2	31.00	22.77	486	2007	cle	Josh Cribbs82	2186	1	26.78	22.00	392	2000	crd	MarTay Jenkins46	1391	1	30.46	22.34	373	2005	buf	Terrence McGee28	 918	3	33.86	21.04	359	1985	ram	Ron J. Brown54	1542	2	28.93	22.34	356	2005	htx	Jerome Mathis37	1099	0	29.70	20.32	347	1981	was	Mike Nelms45	1276	3	29.02	21.31	347	1994	det	Mel J. Gray28	 869	3	32.11	21.47	340	1977	nwe	Raymond Clayborn41	1191	2	29.54	21.62	325	2003	chi	Jerry Azumah23	 752	4	34.43	22.18	322	1970	chi	Cecil Turner20	 707	1	35.85	22.18	313	1970	clt	Jim Duncan40	1067	2	27.18	19.47	308	1992	atl	Deion Sanders51	1428	2	28.39	22.37	307	1998	det	Terry Fair51	1382	1	27.29	21.29	306	1999	cin	Tremain Mack58	1541	2	26.91	21.70	302	2001	sdg	Ronney Jenkins46	1314	1	28.78	23.06	301	1971	gnb	Dave Hampton70	1807	2	26.10	21.85	297	2002	nor	Michael Lewis35	1022	1	29.49	22.18	292	1970	ram	Alvin Haymond36	 982	1	27.56	19.46	292	1989	pit	Rod Woodson41	1098	1	27.02	20.00	288	1988	rai	Tim Brown46	1304	2	28.78	22.58	285	2006	nyj	Justin Miller36	 992	1	27.83	19.97	283	1980	nwe	Horace Ivory33	 998	1	30.55	22.02	281	1996	car	Michael Bates47	1181	1	25.34	19.46	277	1989	dal	James Dixon30	 924	1	31.13	23.11	275	1972	chi	Ron Smith30	 892	2	30.40	21.29	273	1999	ram	Tony Horne32	 968	3	31.19	22.77	269	2007	htx	Andre' Davis49	1293	2	26.80	21.31	269	1994	sdg	Andre Coleman52	1370	3	26.92	21.77	268	2004	buf	Terrence McGee57	1478	2	26.28	21.62	266	2003	kan	Dante Hall31	 866	1	28.26	19.80	262	1986	nor	Mel J. Gray58	1509	2	26.36	21.85	261	2002	nyj	Chad Morton47	1269	0	27.00	21.47	260	1995	den	Glyn Milburn68	1718	2	25.56	21.77	258	2004	kan	Dante Hall36	 962	0	26.72	19.57	258	1983	mia	Fulton Walker39	1082	3	28.51	22.00	254	2000	atl	Darrick Vaughn47	1291	3	28.11	22.77	251	2007	nyj	Leon Washington70	1791	0	25.59	22.02	250	1996	nor	Tyrone Hughes22	 675	1	31.14	19.84	249	1984	nyj	Bobby Humphery36	 929	0	25.81	18.95	247	1991	det	Mel J. Gray60	1577	1	26.45	22.34	246	2005	nyj	Justin Miller47	1281	0	27.26	22.08	243	1997	car	Michael Bates57	1497	2	26.61	22.37	242	1998	gnb	Roell Preston58	1478	0	25.48	21.31	242	1994	was	Brian Mitchell43	1148	1	26.93	21.31	242	1994	dal	Kevin Williams36	1011	1	28.36	22.54	239	1973	was	Herb Mul-Key56	1431	2	25.91	21.70	236	2001	car	Steve Smith63	1556	2	25.02	21.31	233	1994	nor	Tyrone Hughes53	1345	0	25.38	21.04	230	1985	min	Buster Rhymes28	 812	1	29.36	22.18	230	1970	mia	Mercury Morris

Click the link for the rest of the article.

 

[The Moz]

I don't care what yardage stats are there.

Hester is the greatest now and already da GOAT! as far as return men go!!!

I have never seen a Return man more feared in my life watching football except for that 3 month span when Desmond Howard was tearing it up on GreenBay. In Chicago everytime the kick goes up you can hear a pin drop as everyone holds there breath knowing theres actually a decent chance he takes it house!

 

[geoff8695]

A quick study...Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns.By my numbers, Cribb's returns led to an average start of the Cleveland 37.8 yard line. Hester's returns led to the Chicago 32.6 yard line on average. Five yards per return is a pretty big difference and I have yet to run any numbers for other returners to determine averages and what may signify a top returner.When kicking to Cribbs teams short kicked 11 times to other returners and also kicked out of bounds 2 times to result in an overall average start of 37.6 if in included with his returns. Hester was short kicked to other returners 19 times and kicks went out of bounds 8 times resulting in an overall average of 35.5 if included with his returns. (When examining kicking short, I looked at all kicks fielded outside the 20 yard line by teammates and average the ending starting field position).None of this is an exact science. Cribbs was a better returner last year but teams avoided Hester much more. In addition to the twice as many times Hester was kicked short to teammates and out of bounds, 42% of his returns began past the 10 yard line while only 17% of Cribbs' returns began past the 10 yard line.My take is that Cribbs was better but the distance is less than the numbers may say. In fact, the avoidance of Hester negates at least half of the difference and brings Hester to within about 2 yards in average starting position. I am a Bears fan to take that with this information as I was open to what the numbers told me. In seeing every game, Hester struggled at the beginning of the season when teams continued to kick short to him as even many of his returns beginning inside the 10 were balls that rolled to him from outside the 10. His first 9 returns resulted in an average starting position of the 23 yard line. The rest of his returns resulted in a 35.6 average starting position. When you include Hester's huge advantage in punt returns, there is no way Cribbs was the better returner last year.Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns. I would appreciate anyone looking over the numbers. Also, there is no exact way to measure the impact of a great returner and others might not examine it in the manner that I chose to do so.

Very Cribbs had an awesome season last year, certainly his KR numbers are the best by far, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Cribbs is a best KR currently in the NFL. Unfortunately Chase's stats ignore the fact that teams altered their kicking game drastically against Hester, much more so than against Cribbs. The end result is that the Bears are still gaining excellent field position thanks to Hester's presence. Approximately a 2 yard differential in starting field position in Cribbs favor on KR to be sure. However, if you were to ask NFL coaches who is the best returner in the game right now what would they say? I think they would overwhelmingly say Hester scares them and could hurt them more than Cribbs, and their actions last year by avoiding Hester more than twice as often as they avoided Cribbs speaks much louder than words.

 

[Mike Herman]

Random comments:

1. Chase: first and foremost… good stuff! My next comment is in no way intended to detract from the value of what you’ve done here.

2. As already evidenced by some of the replies, you’re going to have a tough sell for Cribbs being more “valuable” than Hester. While Cribbs may win the objective season analysis approach, Hester wins out in a variety of more subjective categories (even if this wasn’t really the intent of what you’re looking at):

a. Opposing teams game plan around him… not every team, and probably not even the majority of teams, but more so than for probably any returner ever.

b. You mentioned that Cribbs’ return season was comparable to Moss’ 23 TD season, which is hard to imagine being repeated… which is a very good point. I think Hester’s six record breaking return TDs in his rookie season also falls into the same category. Hester then did it again in 2007.

c. Some people probably consider the first perfect speed rating in Madden as valuable.

d. Hester has brought renewed and significant attention to the return aspect of the game. The most recent and lesser time that occurred was when Dante Hall scored in 4 straight games.

e. Hester could soon have a renegotiated contract due to his return exploits.

f. Ask any player with return specialist potential drafted in the last two years how valuable Hester is to them. Before Hester, the going rate for a returner was a second-day late-round draft selection at best, or more likely an undrafted free agent. Now they are going in the second round (or 9th overall if you also have some receiving skills).

3. After reading thru all this, I was struck with the realization that we have never seen Chase and Josh Cribbs in the same room at the same time. Hmmm.

 

[Andy Herron]

I would be curious as to where Billy "white shoes" Johnson would fall in this category?

For those that don't recall, remember or are too young, he was quite "Hester-esque" in his era.

Spent a majority of his career with the Houston Oilers. Very exciting and fun to watch, and was really the first to demonstrate an end zone celebration, which was pretty cool in and of itself. Wish I had a clip to provide. Anybody?

 

[boubucarow]

A quick study...Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns.By my numbers, Cribb's returns led to an average start of the Cleveland 37.8 yard line. Hester's returns led to the Chicago 32.6 yard line on average. Five yards per return is a pretty big difference and I have yet to run any numbers for other returners to determine averages and what may signify a top returner.When kicking to Cribbs teams short kicked 11 times to other returners and also kicked out of bounds 2 times to result in an overall average start of 37.6 if in included with his returns. Hester was short kicked to other returners 19 times and kicks went out of bounds 8 times resulting in an overall average of 35.5 if included with his returns. (When examining kicking short, I looked at all kicks fielded outside the 20 yard line by teammates and average the ending starting field position).None of this is an exact science. Cribbs was a better returner last year but teams avoided Hester much more. In addition to the twice as many times Hester was kicked short to teammates and out of bounds, 42% of his returns began past the 10 yard line while only 17% of Cribbs' returns began past the 10 yard line.My take is that Cribbs was better but the distance is less than the numbers may say. In fact, the avoidance of Hester negates at least half of the difference and brings Hester to within about 2 yards in average starting position. I am a Bears fan to take that with this information as I was open to what the numbers told me. In seeing every game, Hester struggled at the beginning of the season when teams continued to kick short to him as even many of his returns beginning inside the 10 were balls that rolled to him from outside the 10. His first 9 returns resulted in an average starting position of the 23 yard line. The rest of his returns resulted in a 35.6 average starting position. When you include Hester's huge advantage in punt returns, there is no way Cribbs was the better returner last year.Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns. I would appreciate anyone looking over the numbers. Also, there is no exact way to measure the impact of a great returner and others might not examine it in the manner that I chose to do so.

Very Cribbs had an awesome season last year, certainly his KR numbers are the best by far, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Cribbs is a best KR currently in the NFL. Unfortunately Chase's stats ignore the fact that teams altered their kicking game drastically against Hester, much more so than against Cribbs. The end result is that the Bears are still gaining excellent field position thanks to Hester's presence. Approximately a 2 yard differential in starting field position in Cribbs favor on KR to be sure. However, if you were to ask NFL coaches who is the best returner in the game right now what would they say? I think they would overwhelmingly say Hester scares them and could hurt them more than Cribbs, and their actions last year by avoiding Hester more than twice as often as they avoided Cribbs speaks much louder than words.

I might have some time this week to look over these numbers and include other returners. That said, it will be interesting to see how Cribbs will react if they kick to him like they did to Hester last year. Hester was noticeably bothered and pushed the issue at the beginning of last year with inconsistent results and it will be interesting if Cribbs will do the same or if he and the team will be more prepared than the Bears were last year. There were entire games last year where teams did not kick it past the 20 yard line against the Bears.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I would be curious as to where Billy "white shoes" Johnson would fall in this category?

For those that don't recall, remember or are too young, he was quite "Hester-esque" in his era.

Spent a majority of his career with the Houston Oilers. Very exciting and fun to watch, and was really the first to demonstrate an end zone celebration, which was pretty cool in and of itself. Wish I had a clip to provide. Anybody?

Check out today's link. Johnson had the 2nd and 4th best punt return seasons since the merger.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I don't care what yardage stats are there.Hester is the greatest now and already da GOAT! as far as return men go!!! I have never seen a Return man more feared in my life watching football except for that 3 month span when Desmond Howard was tearing it up on GreenBay. In Chicago everytime the kick goes up you can hear a pin drop as everyone holds there breath knowing theres actually a decent chance he takes it house!

There's no denying Hester's greatness. However, there's a difference between being the greatest and being the most accomplished. It's going to take Hester awhile before he's as accomplished as someone like Mel Gray, Brian Mitchell, Rick Upchurch or Billy Johnson.That being said, even in terms of single season greatness, Johnson and Desmond Howard have matched Hester's ability. As far as consecutive years for a punt returner, Hester holds that crown -- no one has been this good for two years in a row. And while it's easy to say Hester's the GOAT now, that's only because the '70s were a long time ago. There was a stretch from '75 to '82 where either Johnson, Upchurch or J.T. Smith led the league in punt return average seven out of eight years. And they all had at least one Hester-'06 like year.

 

[Chase Stuart]

A quick study...Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns.By my numbers, Cribb's returns led to an average start of the Cleveland 37.8 yard line. Hester's returns led to the Chicago 32.6 yard line on average. Five yards per return is a pretty big difference and I have yet to run any numbers for other returners to determine averages and what may signify a top returner.When kicking to Cribbs teams short kicked 11 times to other returners and also kicked out of bounds 2 times to result in an overall average start of 37.6 if in included with his returns. Hester was short kicked to other returners 19 times and kicks went out of bounds 8 times resulting in an overall average of 35.5 if included with his returns. (When examining kicking short, I looked at all kicks fielded outside the 20 yard line by teammates and average the ending starting field position).None of this is an exact science. Cribbs was a better returner last year but teams avoided Hester much more. In addition to the twice as many times Hester was kicked short to teammates and out of bounds, 42% of his returns began past the 10 yard line while only 17% of Cribbs' returns began past the 10 yard line.My take is that Cribbs was better but the distance is less than the numbers may say. In fact, the avoidance of Hester negates at least half of the difference and brings Hester to within about 2 yards in average starting position. I am a Bears fan to take that with this information as I was open to what the numbers told me. In seeing every game, Hester struggled at the beginning of the season when teams continued to kick short to him as even many of his returns beginning inside the 10 were balls that rolled to him from outside the 10. His first 9 returns resulted in an average starting position of the 23 yard line. The rest of his returns resulted in a 35.6 average starting position. When you include Hester's huge advantage in punt returns, there is no way Cribbs was the better returner last year.Note: As I said, this was quick. I might have missed a few returns. I would appreciate anyone looking over the numbers. Also, there is no exact way to measure the impact of a great returner and others might not examine it in the manner that I chose to do so.

Very Cribbs had an awesome season last year, certainly his KR numbers are the best by far, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Cribbs is a best KR currently in the NFL. Unfortunately Chase's stats ignore the fact that teams altered their kicking game drastically against Hester, much more so than against Cribbs. The end result is that the Bears are still gaining excellent field position thanks to Hester's presence. Approximately a 2 yard differential in starting field position in Cribbs favor on KR to be sure. However, if you were to ask NFL coaches who is the best returner in the game right now what would they say? I think they would overwhelmingly say Hester scares them and could hurt them more than Cribbs, and their actions last year by avoiding Hester more than twice as often as they avoided Cribbs speaks much louder than words.

If Cribbs does provide a 2-yard advantage over Hester last year, that still made him more valuable. There's a difference between being more valuable and being better. For example, David Garrard was more valuable than Carson Palmer last year, but most people think Carson Palmer's better. Valuable is a backwards looking question, whereas better is a forward looking one.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Random comments:1. Chase: first and foremost… good stuff! My next comment is in no way intended to detract from the value of what you’ve done here.2. As already evidenced by some of the replies, you’re going to have a tough sell for Cribbs being more “valuable” than Hester. While Cribbs may win the objective season analysis approach, Hester wins out in a variety of more subjective categories (even if this wasn’t really the intent of what you’re looking at):a. Opposing teams game plan around him… not every team, and probably not even the majority of teams, but more so than for probably any returner ever.b. You mentioned that Cribbs’ return season was comparable to Moss’ 23 TD season, which is hard to imagine being repeated… which is a very good point. I think Hester’s six record breaking return TDs in his rookie season also falls into the same category. Hester then did it again in 2007.c. Some people probably consider the first perfect speed rating in Madden as valuable.d. Hester has brought renewed and significant attention to the return aspect of the game. The most recent and lesser time that occurred was when Dante Hall scored in 4 straight games.e. Hester could soon have a renegotiated contract due to his return exploits.f. Ask any player with return specialist potential drafted in the last two years how valuable Hester is to them. Before Hester, the going rate for a returner was a second-day late-round draft selection at best, or more likely an undrafted free agent. Now they are going in the second round (or 9th overall if you also have some receiving skills).3. After reading thru all this, I was struck with the realization that we have never seen Chase and Josh Cribbs in the same room at the same time. Hmmm.

Good stuff, Mike.Don't worry, I won't steal your job... yet

 

[Chase Stuart]

In an unexpected twist, my GB Ace Davis points out that today's Josh Cribbs' birthday. Happy B-Day, Josh.

 

[obxlegends]

Chase, as always, great stuff.

Wow, Mel Gray was really a beast. Too bad all those kickoffs didn't translate into more wins for the Saints, Lions or Oilers. ;-)

 

[SSOG]

I think mad sweeney means Hester's the best punt returner. I don't think that's for up for debate. Teams gameplan around him w/r/t punt returns.

It's definitely up to debate. Pac Man was a better punt returner than Hester in 2006.

Maybe, maybe not.He certainly wasn't the more valuable punt returner, though. Hester had almost 50% more returns and had the same great rate numbers. It's a lot more impressive (and valuable for the team) to be way above average for 47 punt returns than for 34 PR.

What's this? Is Chase debating a point he previously declared not open to debate?

I don't care what yardage stats are there.Hester is the greatest now and already da GOAT! as far as return men go!!! I have never seen a Return man more feared in my life watching football except for that 3 month span when Desmond Howard was tearing it up on GreenBay. In Chicago everytime the kick goes up you can hear a pin drop as everyone holds there breath knowing theres actually a decent chance he takes it house!

Greatest now? Yes. Greatest EVER? No. Between Desmond Howard, Deion Sanders, Brian Mitchell, Billy Johnson, Rick Upchurch, Gale Sayers and the like, Devin Hester has a LOOOOOOOOOOOONG way to go. IMO, he's closer to the "Dante Hall / Josh Cribbs / Pac Man Jones" tier than he is to the other one.

 

[Bri]

Interesting post Chase

Easy probably obvious Qs-

what team's are oti, clt, and crd?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Interesting post ChaseEasy probably obvious Qs-what team's are oti, clt, and crd?

Oilers/Titans, Colts, and Cardinals.

 

[Bri]

I don't care what yardage stats are there.Hester is the greatest now and already da GOAT! as far as return men go!!! I have never seen a Return man more feared in my life watching football except for that 3 month span when Desmond Howard was tearing it up on GreenBay. In Chicago everytime the kick goes up you can hear a pin drop as everyone holds there breath knowing theres actually a decent chance he takes it house!

Dante Hall was great at returns, I think you skipped over him-Howard->Hall->Hester.If I'm reading it right, Chase's data seems to support that too.Also, FWIW, young Tim Brown was good at returns

 

[Bri]

Chase,

Phil McKonkey(sp?) seemed to be a very effective special teams player for the Gmen. I don't recall many fancy returns, no long TDs or anything like that...however, I do remember him "getting it done". Granted he was also a special teams "ace" and that garnerred some attention too.

Anyone like Phil jump out at you that maybe wasn't the most famous returner but was real effective? more workman-like?

 

[Andy Herron]

I would be curious as to where Billy "white shoes" Johnson would fall in this category?

For those that don't recall, remember or are too young, he was quite "Hester-esque" in his era.

Spent a majority of his career with the Houston Oilers. Very exciting and fun to watch, and was really the first to demonstrate an end zone celebration, which was pretty cool in and of itself. Wish I had a clip to provide. Anybody?

Check out today's link. Johnson had the 2nd and 4th best punt return seasons since the merger.

Thanks Chase.Clipped from your link (for the others):

"Hester’s doing pretty well, but maybe we shouldn’t crown him just yet. He’s no ‘White Shoes’ Johnson, who owns two of the top four spots in punt returner history."

It's been a long time, but it's hard to forget about a guy like that. I figured he'd be up there.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chase,Phil McKonkey(sp?) seemed to be a very effective special teams player for the Gmen. I don't recall many fancy returns, no long TDs or anything like that...however, I do remember him "getting it done". Granted he was also a special teams "ace" and that garnerred some attention too.Anyone like Phil jump out at you that maybe wasn't the most famous returner but was real effective? more workman-like?

McConkey was usually about average or slightly below average, as far as punt returners go. He didn't return as many kicks, but was slightly below average at that, too. But yeah, his coverable ability is hard to measure here.

 

[Mike Herman]

"I want to raise the limits for myself. If I say I'm going to make the Hall of Fame, along the way, in trying to reach that goal, I'm going to make a lot of achievements for me and my team. I'm trying to be 'the' guy, I'm not trying to be 'a' guy in the NFL."

- Josh Cribbs

 

[Chase Stuart]

Today, I compare Josh Cribbs to some QBs.

On Monday and Tuesday, I looked at some of the best seasons by returners in league history. As noted yesterday, Josh Cribbs’ 2007 season was truly remarkable. He added 486 more adjusted yards than the league average kickoff returner would have produced, and another 136 adjusted yards above what the league average punt returner would have compiled with the same number of returns. Those 622 adjusted yards over average was the single highest total by any one player since the merger.

year	KR VAL  PR VAL RET VALJosh Cribbs		  2007	486	136	622Michael Lewis		2002	297	211	508Dante Hall		   2003	266	211	477Mike Nelms		   1981	347	123	470Brian Mitchell	   1994	242	181	423Mel J. Gray		  1991	247	175	422Billy Johnson		1977	118	283	401Mel J. Gray		  1994	347	 42	389Billy Johnson		1975	 76	312	388MarTay Jenkins	   2000	392	- 9	383Terrence McGee	   2005	373	  0	373Derrick Mason		2000	208	158	366Tyrone Hughes		1993	178	182	360Ron J. Brown		 1985	359	  0	359Eddie Brown		  1976	108	249	357Brian Mitchell	   2002	222	134	356Eddie Drummond	   2004	220	129	348Raymond Clayborn	 1977	340	  0	340Ron Smith			1973	155	173	328Jerome Mathis		2005	356	-30	325Jerry Azumah		 2003	325	  0	325Glyn Milburn		 1995	260	 61	321Brian Mitchell	   1995	227	 89	316Cecil Turner		 1970	322	- 9	314Tim Brown			1988	288	 25	313

When comparing returners to returners, using adjusted yards (adjusted meaning simply giving an additional ten yards for every TD score) compared to league average works well as a measure of accomplishment and value. But what if we want to compare returners to QBs? Well, that’s a little more complicated.

See how Cribbs compared to some of the league's top QBs here.

 

[Kendall]

Thanks for the headache.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Thanks for the headache.

Sorry about that.It's a pretty fascinating topic to me, as I don't think I've ever seen anyone try to meaningfully compare the value of a KR to a QB. It's definitely not an easy task.

 

[The_Man]

How do you factor in Fair Catches for a punt returner's value? My guess is they're not included, which I guess makes sense. But it would be interesting to give guys a 0-yard return for a fair catch and then see how that changes the numbers. Mike Nelms, who rates high on the kickoff list but doesn't show up on the punt returner list, makes me think of this. He was a CFL guy, and then never called a fair catch as a Redskin -- it was just amazing to watch. But I'm sure it hurt his return average.

 

[Chase Stuart]

How do you factor in Fair Catches for a punt returner's value? My guess is they're not included, which I guess makes sense. But it would be interesting to give guys a 0-yard return for a fair catch and then see how that changes the numbers. Mike Nelms, who rates high on the kickoff list but doesn't show up on the punt returner list, makes me think of this. He was a CFL guy, and then never called a fair catch as a Redskin -- it was just amazing to watch. But I'm sure it hurt his return average.

I currently exclude fair catches, but I can see the argument for including them as a 0-yard return. I'm open to being swayed.

 

[boubucarow]

How do you factor in Fair Catches for a punt returner's value? My guess is they're not included, which I guess makes sense. But it would be interesting to give guys a 0-yard return for a fair catch and then see how that changes the numbers. Mike Nelms, who rates high on the kickoff list but doesn't show up on the punt returner list, makes me think of this. He was a CFL guy, and then never called a fair catch as a Redskin -- it was just amazing to watch. But I'm sure it hurt his return average.

I currently exclude fair catches, but I can see the argument for including them as a 0-yard return. I'm open to being swayed.

I can't say that I think your research even comes close to fully evaluating the impact of a returner. My reservations are with your faith in the traditional numbers for returners. For kickoffs, your study fails to examine the effect of short kicking or angled kicks that go out of bounds to avoid a returner. It also fails to examine the kickers reluctance to kick for a touchback if a great returner is there which creates more consistent good field position. For punt returns, average per return does not include angled kicks out of bound to avoid a return, fair catches that are made in traffic to save field position, or long punts that allow for longer average returns.Obviously, all of these angles make it very hard to examine the impact of a returner. My first post tries to examine kick returners more fully but in now way do I think that is the end all be all. As for punt returns, net punting average every time the a player is back to return the punt would more fully examine the impact of that player as a returner. All of that said, I think your work is very valuable and could lead to a more efficient and whole way to examine returners. When that occurs, it would be great to examine the consistency of returners from year to year.

 

[Chase Stuart]

How do you factor in Fair Catches for a punt returner's value? My guess is they're not included, which I guess makes sense. But it would be interesting to give guys a 0-yard return for a fair catch and then see how that changes the numbers. Mike Nelms, who rates high on the kickoff list but doesn't show up on the punt returner list, makes me think of this. He was a CFL guy, and then never called a fair catch as a Redskin -- it was just amazing to watch. But I'm sure it hurt his return average.

I currently exclude fair catches, but I can see the argument for including them as a 0-yard return. I'm open to being swayed.

I can't say that I think your research even comes close to fully evaluating the impact of a returner. My reservations are with your faith in the traditional numbers for returners. For kickoffs, your study fails to examine the effect of short kicking or angled kicks that go out of bounds to avoid a returner. It also fails to examine the kickers reluctance to kick for a touchback if a great returner is there which creates more consistent good field position. For punt returns, average per return does not include angled kicks out of bound to avoid a return, fair catches that are made in traffic to save field position, or long punts that allow for longer average returns.Obviously, all of these angles make it very hard to examine the impact of a returner. My first post tries to examine kick returners more fully but in now way do I think that is the end all be all. As for punt returns, net punting average every time the a player is back to return the punt would more fully examine the impact of that player as a returner. All of that said, I think your work is very valuable and could lead to a more efficient and whole way to examine returners. When that occurs, it would be great to examine the consistency of returners from year to year.

Unfortunately, I think this is pretty much a pipe dream.Consider RBs.A 10 yard rush could be :A draw play where the defense was expecting a pass, orA run against a defense expecting the run, where the RB bowled over 4 players, orA run where the OL just obliterated everyone, and the RB should have gone for 20 yards, orA run where the D thought the QB still had the ball, and the defenders were badly out of position.Just about every player's stats are going to have a whole lot of drawbacks. That's never going to change when you've got 22 players on the field at the same time. It's no different with WRs:A 15 yard catch could be a play where he made a great move and was open for a 15 yard catch; orA screen pass, where he had great blocking, and ran untouched for 15 yards; orA screen pass where he made a ton of moves and ran for 15 yards; orA ball that was perfectly thrown by the QB, where the WR didn't make any good moves, and got almost no separation.Raw stats are going to have some drawbacks, for sure. Not much we can do, unfortunately.

 

[boubucarow]

How do you factor in Fair Catches for a punt returner's value? My guess is they're not included, which I guess makes sense. But it would be interesting to give guys a 0-yard return for a fair catch and then see how that changes the numbers. Mike Nelms, who rates high on the kickoff list but doesn't show up on the punt returner list, makes me think of this. He was a CFL guy, and then never called a fair catch as a Redskin -- it was just amazing to watch. But I'm sure it hurt his return average.

I currently exclude fair catches, but I can see the argument for including them as a 0-yard return. I'm open to being swayed.

I can't say that I think your research even comes close to fully evaluating the impact of a returner. My reservations are with your faith in the traditional numbers for returners. For kickoffs, your study fails to examine the effect of short kicking or angled kicks that go out of bounds to avoid a returner. It also fails to examine the kickers reluctance to kick for a touchback if a great returner is there which creates more consistent good field position. For punt returns, average per return does not include angled kicks out of bound to avoid a return, fair catches that are made in traffic to save field position, or long punts that allow for longer average returns.Obviously, all of these angles make it very hard to examine the impact of a returner. My first post tries to examine kick returners more fully but in now way do I think that is the end all be all. As for punt returns, net punting average every time the a player is back to return the punt would more fully examine the impact of that player as a returner. All of that said, I think your work is very valuable and could lead to a more efficient and whole way to examine returners. When that occurs, it would be great to examine the consistency of returners from year to year.

Unfortunately, I think this is pretty much a pipe dream.Consider RBs.A 10 yard rush could be :A draw play where the defense was expecting a pass, orA run against a defense expecting the run, where the RB bowled over 4 players, orA run where the OL just obliterated everyone, and the RB should have gone for 20 yards, orA run where the D thought the QB still had the ball, and the defenders were badly out of position.Just about every player's stats are going to have a whole lot of drawbacks. That's never going to change when you've got 22 players on the field at the same time. It's no different with WRs:A 15 yard catch could be a play where he made a great move and was open for a 15 yard catch; orA screen pass, where he had great blocking, and ran untouched for 15 yards; orA screen pass where he made a ton of moves and ran for 15 yards; orA ball that was perfectly thrown by the QB, where the WR didn't make any good moves, and got almost no separation.Raw stats are going to have some drawbacks, for sure. Not much we can do, unfortunately.

Yeah, there is no perfect way to evaluate any position. However, for returns, I believe the typical raw stats are not enough and there are stats available through painstacking research that give a much more accurate impression of impact.

 

[TitusIII]

Check the average starting field position for the Bears...and end the debate...if the team had half an offense, they'd put up 40 a game without blinking, but of course...

During the second half of the season, I was shocked when a team didn't pooch the kickoff...instead kicking to Hester

I think he is the goat, and I don't think it's that close, although I've been lucky enough to watch his every move for 2 years...if you don't agree with me, check Chiefs/Bears tape from last season, he could have/should have had 5 touchdowns...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst.php

Cribbs is a special talent, no doubt, but he is no Devin Hester

 

[stevegamer]

How do you factor in Fair Catches for a punt returner's value? My guess is they're not included, which I guess makes sense. But it would be interesting to give guys a 0-yard return for a fair catch and then see how that changes the numbers. Mike Nelms, who rates high on the kickoff list but doesn't show up on the punt returner list, makes me think of this. He was a CFL guy, and then never called a fair catch as a Redskin -- it was just amazing to watch. But I'm sure it hurt his return average.

I currently exclude fair catches, but I can see the argument for including them as a 0-yard return. I'm open to being swayed.

I can't say that I think your research even comes close to fully evaluating the impact of a returner. My reservations are with your faith in the traditional numbers for returners. For kickoffs, your study fails to examine the effect of short kicking or angled kicks that go out of bounds to avoid a returner. It also fails to examine the kickers reluctance to kick for a touchback if a great returner is there which creates more consistent good field position. For punt returns, average per return does not include angled kicks out of bound to avoid a return, fair catches that are made in traffic to save field position, or long punts that allow for longer average returns.Obviously, all of these angles make it very hard to examine the impact of a returner. My first post tries to examine kick returners more fully but in now way do I think that is the end all be all. As for punt returns, net punting average every time the a player is back to return the punt would more fully examine the impact of that player as a returner. All of that said, I think your work is very valuable and could lead to a more efficient and whole way to examine returners. When that occurs, it would be great to examine the consistency of returners from year to year.

Unfortunately, I think this is pretty much a pipe dream.Consider RBs.A 10 yard rush could be :A draw play where the defense was expecting a pass, orA run against a defense expecting the run, where the RB bowled over 4 players, orA run where the OL just obliterated everyone, and the RB should have gone for 20 yards, orA run where the D thought the QB still had the ball, and the defenders were badly out of position.Just about every player's stats are going to have a whole lot of drawbacks. That's never going to change when you've got 22 players on the field at the same time. It's no different with WRs:A 15 yard catch could be a play where he made a great move and was open for a 15 yard catch; orA screen pass, where he had great blocking, and ran untouched for 15 yards; orA screen pass where he made a ton of moves and ran for 15 yards; orA ball that was perfectly thrown by the QB, where the WR didn't make any good moves, and got almost no separation.Raw stats are going to have some drawbacks, for sure. Not much we can do, unfortunately.

Actually, FBG is in a great spot to do something about this. There was a movement in sabermetrics to log every plate appearance and it's result - type of hit, etc.If you could get 64 people (2 per team) to log every kickoff or punt, you'd have 4 sets of eyes giving you detailed dat about whether it was an agnled kick, pooched, etc. That's the kind of thing you need o take it to the next level.

 

[SSOG]

How do you factor in Fair Catches for a punt returner's value? My guess is they're not included, which I guess makes sense. But it would be interesting to give guys a 0-yard return for a fair catch and then see how that changes the numbers. Mike Nelms, who rates high on the kickoff list but doesn't show up on the punt returner list, makes me think of this. He was a CFL guy, and then never called a fair catch as a Redskin -- it was just amazing to watch. But I'm sure it hurt his return average.

I currently exclude fair catches, but I can see the argument for including them as a 0-yard return. I'm open to being swayed.

I can't say that I think your research even comes close to fully evaluating the impact of a returner. My reservations are with your faith in the traditional numbers for returners. For kickoffs, your study fails to examine the effect of short kicking or angled kicks that go out of bounds to avoid a returner. It also fails to examine the kickers reluctance to kick for a touchback if a great returner is there which creates more consistent good field position. For punt returns, average per return does not include angled kicks out of bound to avoid a return, fair catches that are made in traffic to save field position, or long punts that allow for longer average returns.Obviously, all of these angles make it very hard to examine the impact of a returner. My first post tries to examine kick returners more fully but in now way do I think that is the end all be all. As for punt returns, net punting average every time the a player is back to return the punt would more fully examine the impact of that player as a returner. All of that said, I think your work is very valuable and could lead to a more efficient and whole way to examine returners. When that occurs, it would be great to examine the consistency of returners from year to year.

Unfortunately, I think this is pretty much a pipe dream.Consider RBs.A 10 yard rush could be :A draw play where the defense was expecting a pass, orA run against a defense expecting the run, where the RB bowled over 4 players, orA run where the OL just obliterated everyone, and the RB should have gone for 20 yards, orA run where the D thought the QB still had the ball, and the defenders were badly out of position.Just about every player's stats are going to have a whole lot of drawbacks. That's never going to change when you've got 22 players on the field at the same time. It's no different with WRs:A 15 yard catch could be a play where he made a great move and was open for a 15 yard catch; orA screen pass, where he had great blocking, and ran untouched for 15 yards; orA screen pass where he made a ton of moves and ran for 15 yards; orA ball that was perfectly thrown by the QB, where the WR didn't make any good moves, and got almost no separation.Raw stats are going to have some drawbacks, for sure. Not much we can do, unfortunately.

Actually, FBG is in a great spot to do something about this. There was a movement in sabermetrics to log every plate appearance and it's result - type of hit, etc.If you could get 64 people (2 per team) to log every kickoff or punt, you'd have 4 sets of eyes giving you detailed dat about whether it was an agnled kick, pooched, etc. That's the kind of thing you need o take it to the next level.

Football Outsiders has a game charting project where they actually log every single play like that. If a play is a pass attempt, they'll log things like what kind of drop it was, how long the QB had to scan the field, what defenders were in pass coverage, whose "fault" the play was, and any other miscellaneous notes they had. You could always try contacting them and see if you could get the special teams data for a project like that if you were ambitious enough.