Best teams at drafting (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Alex Smith, assuming he starts another season, should pass Leaf. Ronnie Brown, Eli Manning, Braylon Edwards and Pacman Jones are simply too early into their careers to properly rate. Most of those guys were busts, though.

Why isn't Alex too early to properly rate? He came out with Edwards.

Because Edwards looks like he'll be a stud for a few more years, while Smith looks like he's going to stink. That's all.

These two are upgraded or downgraded on future projections, but Castillo is being rated on the chance that his career is ended tomorrow. This doesn't seem very consistent.

You're wrong. They all are being rated on the expectation that their career ends tomorrow. Please re-read the OP.

 

[Chase Stuart]

If neither of them play another down, would you agree that Castillo and Jammer have had negative value relative to their draft position, too?

Not when compared to Fazande/Still and the amount of production that club got out of them in relation to their draft position.

I think you're really underestimating the expected career production from the fifth pick in the draft. Jammer has been good, but he still has a ways to go to have been considered a good pick. I agree Fazande/Still stunk. That's why they were considered bad draft picks. But when you take a CB with the 5th pick in the draft, you're not hoping for 11 career interceptions.

 

[Q-Bert]

But Jake Long has been less productive than any #1 pick in the last ten years.

I understand that a system only measures what it measures. But what it's measuring in this case has very little to do, in some cases, with how well a team has drafted. Jake Long's score shouldn't be negative. It should be exactly neutral. He hasn't done any better or any worse, on the field, than could have been expected.

No they really are not.Jammer has been in the league for six seasons. He has 11 career interceptions and has never made a pro bowl, all pro team, or all conference team. While he has been a starter for his team he has clearly been a disappointment relative to his draft position. A corner drafted at #5 overall should be a superstar not a solid starter.

 

[T Bell]

Interesting data. It looks fair as to the Redskins, especially given the considerable time frame covered.

They have done better in the last decade with those picks they didn't trade away, so I'm fairly certain that they'd rank higher in the high draft pick rankings if it was limited to 1999-present.

 

[T Bell]

But Jake Long has been less productive than any #1 pick in the last ten years.

I understand that a system only measures what it measures. But what it's measuring in this case has very little to do, in some cases, with how well a team has drafted. Jake Long's score shouldn't be negative. It should be exactly neutral. He hasn't done any better or any worse, on the field, than could have been expected.

No they really are not.Jammer has been in the league for six seasons. He has 11 career interceptions and has never made a pro bowl, all pro team, or all conference team. While he has been a starter for his team he has clearly been a disappointment relative to his draft position. A corner drafted at #5 overall should be a superstar not a solid starter.

So every year, you're expecting five or more "superstars" to be drafted? I find that to be ridiculous.

 

[Dirk Digler]

 

[Despyzer]

If neither of them play another down, would you agree that Castillo and Jammer have had negative value relative to their draft position, too?

Not when compared to Fazande/Still and the amount of production that club got out of them in relation to their draft position.

I think you're really underestimating the expected career production from the fifth pick in the draft. Jammer has been good, but he still has a ways to go to have been considered a good pick. I agree Fazande/Still stunk. That's why they were considered bad draft picks. But when you take a CB with the 5th pick in the draft, you're not hoping for 11 career interceptions.

There's a lot more to a CB than INTs. As MT pointed out, Jammer played at a Pro Bowl level last year and has been showing dramatic improvement over each of the last three years.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Fifth picks in the draft typically produce four times as much as 41st picks in the draft. Jammer has "only" produced about twice as much value as Still. Part of that is because Jammer's career isn't over; after next season, Jammer is almost certainly going to look like a less bad pick than Still.Castillo and Fazande are tied. The reason, of course, is that Castillo has only started 33 games, and has a bit of a higher threshold to reach than Fazande, as the higher pick.

Fazande and Still really didn't have any value in an absolute sense. Plenty of free agents off the street would have been just as good. Since they were second-round picks, they had negative value relative to their draft position.Castillo and Jammer have both had positive value, and plenty of it.

If neither of them play another down, would you agree that Castillo and Jammer have had negative value relative to their draft position, too?

Sure. And if Fazande re-enters the league and has a 2,000 yard season it would be awesome. But I don't think such unrealistic hypotheticals are the best way to evaluate which teams have drafted well. I know that any method will have drawbacks. But I think regarding Jake Long as the worst pick ever while he's actually been neutral (with the same type of error applying to every recent draft pick) is a big enough drawback that it kind of throws the whole system off quite a bit. A more realistic assumption is that Long will play up to his draft position. With Castillo, a realistic assumption is that he'll continue to outperform his draft position. (I don't know whether he's outperformed it by AV's calcs; but if we're using AV, a realistic assumption is that he'll perform in the future somewhere between his original draft slot expectation and his actual performance so far.)

 

[Chase Stuart]

But Jake Long has been less productive than any #1 pick in the last ten years.

I understand that a system only measures what it measures. But what it's measuring in this case has very little to do, in some cases, with how well a team has drafted. Jake Long's score shouldn't be negative. It should be exactly neutral. He hasn't done any better or any worse, on the field, than could have been expected.

No they really are not.Jammer has been in the league for six seasons. He has 11 career interceptions and has never made a pro bowl, all pro team, or all conference team. While he has been a starter for his team he has clearly been a disappointment relative to his draft position. A corner drafted at #5 overall should be a superstar not a solid starter.

So every year, you're expecting five or more "superstars" to be drafted? I find that to be ridiculous.

Eight guys have made an All Pro team from that draft; Seven more have made a Pro Bowl team. I don't think Jammer was one of the top five players from that draft.He hasn't been a bust, but he certainly hasn't outperformed his draft position, either. He's been a bit underwhelming, overall. But his career is far from over.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Fifth picks in the draft typically produce four times as much as 41st picks in the draft. Jammer has "only" produced about twice as much value as Still. Part of that is because Jammer's career isn't over; after next season, Jammer is almost certainly going to look like a less bad pick than Still.Castillo and Fazande are tied. The reason, of course, is that Castillo has only started 33 games, and has a bit of a higher threshold to reach than Fazande, as the higher pick.

Fazande and Still really didn't have any value in an absolute sense. Plenty of free agents off the street would have been just as good. Since they were second-round picks, they had negative value relative to their draft position.Castillo and Jammer have both had positive value, and plenty of it.

If neither of them play another down, would you agree that Castillo and Jammer have had negative value relative to their draft position, too?

Sure. And if Fazande re-enters the league and has a 2,000 yard season it would be awesome. But I don't think such unrealistic hypotheticals are the best way to evaluate which teams have drafted well. I know that any method will have drawbacks. But I think regarding Jake Long as the worst pick ever while he's actually been neutral (with the same type of error applying to every recent draft pick) is a big enough drawback that it kind of throws the whole system off quite a bit. A more realistic assumption is that Long will play up to his draft position. With Castillo, a realistic assumption is that he'll continue to outperform his draft position. (I don't know whether he's outperformed it by AV's calcs; but if we're using AV, a realistic assumption is that he'll perform in the future somewhere between his original draft slot expectation and his actual performance so far.)

That's why I didn't include Mario Williams or Russell or Long in here.Once again, I've got another thought; I hope to get to it today.

 

[TheFanatic]

This is all a load of crap. The Rams are ranked waaaayyyyy too high in all of these lists. The Rams are horrible at drafting...

The Rams' first round picks in 2005, 2006 and 2007 have underwhelmed. But they're not in this study.Orlando Pace and Torry Holt were really good picks. Grant Winstrom and Eddie Kennison had pretty good careers, even if with other teams. A ton of picks outside the top ten end up being pretty useless. The Rams aren't really special in that regard.

Oh, I know there are good selections. But as a homer it's sometimes hard to see that. Like you say Kennison was a good pick. Kennison was a 1st round pick!!! He did not deserve to be taken in the 1st round. Top that with this little tidbit. Do you know who was picked the pick after Kennison? Marvin Harrison. And Lawrence Phillips was the first RB taken that year. Eddie George went a few picks later.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Jammer has been in the league for six seasons. He has 11 career interceptions and has never made a pro bowl, all pro team, or all conference team. While he has been a starter for his team he has clearly been a disappointment relative to his draft position. A corner drafted at #5 overall should be a superstar not a solid starter.

Jammer doesn't play the ball all that well (although he's improved in the past couple seasons), so he'll never have a lot of interceptions. But judging a CB on interceptions is like judging a RB on touchdown receptions. They're relevant, but they're a small piece of the overall value.Jammer has probably not exceeded expectations for a #5 pick. But he has had positive value. (The average #5 pick has very positive value; so you can be a below average #5 pick while still being a positive value to the team.) In other words, the Chargers may have been better off reaching for Ed Reed at #5 than they were by taking Jammer. But they were much better off taking Jammer at #5 than they would have been by forfeiting the pick.With Still and Fazande, they may have done better by just forfeiting those picks. (Still more so than Fazande, who did have one good game.)

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Jammer has probably not exceeded expectations for a #5 pick. But he has had positive value. (The average #5 pick has very positive value; so you can be a below average #5 pick while still being a positive value to the team.) In other words, the Chargers may have been better off reaching for Ed Reed at #5 than they were by taking Jammer. But they were much better off taking Jammer at #5 than they would have been by forfeiting the pick.

BTW, that was just a random, irrelevant tangent. I think it's a perfectly good approach to grade #5 picks relative to other #5 picks, without taking absolute value into account.My only real point is that any list that ranks Castillo ahead of Fazande (or Sammy Davis, or Brian Roche, or Michael Hamilton, or Patrick Sapp) is not really a list of worst draft picks. It's possibly a list of "worst draft picks assuming everyone's career ended tomorrow" (although I still wouldn't put Castillo ahead of any of those guys), but that's a very different measure.

Part of the problem with Castillo and Jammer is that their on-field performance isn't fully reflected in the box scores. Castillo is a 3-4 DE, so he won't get the stats that other (4-3) DEs often get. And he hasn't made a Pro Bowl yet, although he's played at that caliber. So he'll be underrated by any method based on objective measures like that. That's a problem without a good solution, so there's no sense in dwelling on it.

But the other part of the problem seems to be that their production over two years is being graded against their expected production over seven years (or whatever). That's going to bias the results against players drafted highly in recent years -- and against teams that have had lots of high picks in recent years. If we're trying to measure how good a 2005 draft pick was, I think we would greatly improve the results by either comparing their two years of actual production to two years of expected production, or by comparing their [two years of actual production plus five years of expected production] to seven years of expected production. Expected future production would generally be somewhere between the level of original expectation and the level of actual performance so far; it will be above zero (except where a player has already suffered a career-ending injury or is otherwise out of the league).

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here are some tweaks I made.Ranking a player by the difference between his expected career value (based on draft position) and his actual approximate career value (based on NFL play) penalizes players who are more recent draft picks but high picks. So here's the new ranking system, to replace ACT VAL - EXP VAL.

100*(Actual career value / Actual career value of every player in that draft) - (Expected career value - Expected career value of every player in that draft).

So now, Lofa Tatupu looks really good. And Brady moves past Zach Thomas, because Thomas' four extra seasons are now worth a little less.Here are the top 35 players, sorted by their score, with their draft pick in the middle column:

Tom Brady			199	 2.21Zach Thomas		  154	 2.07Jason Taylor		  73	 2.06Terrell Owens		 89	 1.89Ronde Barber		  66	 1.84Ray Lewis			 26	 1.81Tiki Barber		   36	 1.67Randy Moss			21	 1.65La'Roi Glover		166	 1.62Marvin Harrison	   19	 1.60Lofa Tatupu		   45	 1.50Matt Hasselbeck	  187	 1.48Sam Madison		   44	 1.45Lance Briggs		  68	 1.41LaDainian Tomlinson	5	 1.41Brian Westbrook	   91	 1.40Ahman Green		   76	 1.39Hines Ward			92	 1.37Joey Porter		   73	 1.36Trent Cole		   146	 1.35Clinton Portis		51	 1.35Peyton Manning		 1	 1.33Edgerrin James		 4	 1.33Adalius Thomas	   186	 1.33Aaron Brooks		 131	 1.32Shane Olivea		 209	 1.30Frank Gore			65	 1.29Jared Allen		  126	 1.28Derrick Mason		 98	 1.28Donald Driver		213	 1.26Chad Johnson		  36	 1.24Brian Urlacher		 9	 1.23Donnie Edwards		98	 1.22Darren Sharper		60	 1.22Jeremiah Trotter	  72	 1.21

And the bottom 35, listed from 35th worst to worst:

Tom Knight			 9	-0.74Willie Middlebrooks   24	-0.74Bryant Westbrook	   5	-0.74Troy Williamson		7	-0.75Nathan Davis		  32	-0.75Dimitrius Underwood   29	-0.75Leon Bender		   31	-0.75Andre T. Johnson	  30	-0.75Michael Haynes		14	-0.75David Pollack		 17	-0.75Aaron Rodgers		 24	-0.77Jason Peter		   14	-0.77Jim Druckenmiller	 26	-0.79Ryan Sims			  6	-0.80Mike D. Williams	   4	-0.80Mike Williams		 10	-0.81Reggie McGrew		 24	-0.81Jerome McDougle	   15	-0.87Cade McNown		   12	-0.88David Terrell		  8	-0.89Michael Booker		11	-0.89Cedric Jones		   5	-0.89Johnathan Sullivan	 6	-0.92Wendell Bryant		12	-0.92Yatil Green		   15	-0.94Lawrence Phillips	  6	-1.03Jamal Reynolds		10	-1.06Tim Couch			  1	-1.08Curtis Enis			5	-1.09Courtney Brown		 1	-1.10Andre Wadsworth		3	-1.19Alex Smith			 1	-1.33Charles Rogers		 2	-1.46Akili Smith			3	-1.47Ryan Leaf			  2	-1.54

 

[Chase Stuart]

Here's the revised team draft standings. The Chargers move up a bit from the 30th to 25th.

AV	   DV	   DiffIndianapolis Colts	 40.74	31.12	 9.62Green Bay Packers	  34.89	28.87	 6.02Baltimore Ravens	   35.99	30.54	 5.45Pittsburgh Steelers	36.61	31.19	 5.42Philadelphia Eagles	38.42	33.26	 5.16Dallas Cowboys		 34.79	31.07	 3.72Tennessee Titans	   37.90	34.83	 3.07Buffalo Bills		  32.25	29.38	 2.88New York Giants		31.40	28.78	 2.62Jacksonville Jaguars   37.47	35.15	 2.33Chicago Bears		  37.36	35.30	 2.05New England Patriots   35.75	34.55	 1.20Kansas City Chiefs	 27.47	27.08	 0.39St. Louis Rams		 36.19	35.80	 0.39Seattle Seahawks	   34.62	34.59	 0.03New York Jets		  32.24	32.25	-0.01Denver Broncos		 30.47	30.71	-0.24Miami Dolphins		 30.06	30.36	-0.30Tampa Bay Buccaneers   29.18	29.63	-0.46Atlanta Falcons		28.30	29.10	-0.80Carolina Panthers	  29.91	31.60	-1.69Cincinnati Bengals	 34.15	36.19	-2.05San Francisco 49ers	28.70	30.84	-2.14Washington Redskins	23.95	26.58	-2.63San Diego Chargers	 28.54	31.46	-2.93Minnesota Vikings	  29.50	32.65	-3.15Houston Texans		 12.37	15.58	-3.21Oakland Raiders		26.76	31.17	-4.42Arizona Cardinals	  34.13	38.78	-4.65New Orleans Saints	 25.01	30.81	-5.80Cleveland Browns	   21.24	28.12	-6.87Detroit Lions		  23.66	32.66	-9.01

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chargers fans>

Luis Castillo is now above average. He ranks 704th out of 2,483 players. Quentin Jammer, sadly, ranks 2,183rd. Jammer ranks 347th if you rank players simply by approximate career value relative to draft class, which is pretty good. This just means, as it should, that being the 5th pick in the draft brings really, really high expectations. And while it's easy to say that right now Jammer is good, he was the starting corner on some terrible defenses early in his career. Each year is weighted evenly, so the fact that he's good now just cancels out the non-production he had in the early stages of his career. But yes, you could argue that Jammer is underrated, but in general, CBs aren't really underrated by this approximate value system. Very good CBs that don't get interceptions, don't get Pro Bowl berths, and don't play on good defenses are probably systemically underrated. But there aren't that many of those, Jammer excluded.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Jammer has probably not exceeded expectations for a #5 pick. But he has had positive value. (The average #5 pick has very positive value; so you can be a below average #5 pick while still being a positive value to the team.) In other words, the Chargers may have been better off reaching for Ed Reed at #5 than they were by taking Jammer. But they were much better off taking Jammer at #5 than they would have been by forfeiting the pick.

BTW, that was just a random, irrelevant tangent. I think it's a perfectly good approach to grade #5 picks relative to other #5 picks, without taking absolute value into account.My only real point is that any list that ranks Castillo ahead of Fazande (or Sammy Davis, or Brian Roche, or Michael Hamilton, or Patrick Sapp) is not really a list of worst draft picks. It's possibly a list of "worst draft picks assuming everyone's career ended tomorrow" (although I still wouldn't put Castillo ahead of any of those guys), but that's a very different measure.

Part of the problem with Castillo and Jammer is that their on-field performance isn't fully reflected in the box scores. Castillo is a 3-4 DE, so he won't get the stats that other (4-3) DEs often get. And he hasn't made a Pro Bowl yet, although he's played at that caliber. So he'll be underrated by any method based on objective measures like that. That's a problem without a good solution, so there's no sense in dwelling on it.

But the other part of the problem seems to be that their production over two years is being graded against their expected production over seven years (or whatever). That's going to bias the results against players drafted highly in recent years -- and against teams that have had lots of high picks in recent years. If we're trying to measure how good a 2005 draft pick was, I think we would greatly improve the results by either comparing their two years of actual production to two years of expected production, or by comparing their [two years of actual production plus five years of expected production] to seven years of expected production. Expected future production would generally be somewhere between the level of original expectation and the level of actual performance so far; it will be above zero (except where a player has already suffered a career-ending injury or is otherwise out of the league).

I think you'll like my recent posts a bit more.

 

[snorlax]

The new list seems much more representative of what we would expect. I don't know who Andre T. Johnson is, but as long as he's not the WR for the Texans, I don't have a problem with anyone on those lists or their orders. Good work all around.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The new list seems much more representative of what we would expect. I don't know who Andre T. Johnson is, but as long as he's not the WR for the Texans, I don't have a problem with anyone on those lists or their orders. Good work all around.

30th pick in the draft by the Redskins, who never played a down with Washington, and started zero games and played in just three in his entire career.

 

[Bri]

Jammer and Castillo are both Pro Bowl caliber players.

No they're not.

Yes they are.

So which AFC pro bowl DE and CB should they have edged out for their spot then?

 

[azgroover]

But Jake Long has been less productive than any #1 pick in the last ten years.

I understand that a system only measures what it measures. But what it's measuring in this case has very little to do, in some cases, with how well a team has drafted. Jake Long's score shouldn't be negative. It should be exactly neutral. He hasn't done any better or any worse, on the field, than could have been expected.

No they really are not.Jammer has been in the league for six seasons. He has 11 career interceptions and has never made a pro bowl, all pro team, or all conference team. While he has been a starter for his team he has clearly been a disappointment relative to his draft position. A corner drafted at #5 overall should be a superstar not a solid starter.

Just think Jammer could have went as high as #3 in the draft as the Lions coaches wanted him, but Mr. Ford wanted Joey Harrington. Talk about being damned if you do...

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Jammer and Castillo are both Pro Bowl caliber players.

No they're not.

Yes they are.

So which AFC pro bowl DE and CB should they have edged out for their spot then?

I don't know. None? Your question doesn't follow from my statement, though."Pro Bowl caliber" means "really good -- like, about as good as some Pro Bowlers." It has nothing to do with AFC versus NFC, or edging out particular players. Castillo was a second alternate to the Pro Bowl in 2006, which pretty much makes him Pro Bowl caliber right there. And Jammer might never make the Pro Bowl because he doesn't get interceptions -- but (according to Chargers' DB coach Bill Bradley) he graded out as the Chargers' best DB last season, in a secondary that did include Pro Bowler Antonio Cromartie. Norv Turner specifically mentioned Jammer as being snubbed from the Pro Bowl. He is not a Pro Bowler, but he is Pro Bowl caliber.

 

[Bob Magaw]

like maurile said...

if i know a player has made the pro bowl, i feel free to use the adjective pro bowler...

if they haven't, but imo could/should have, i add the qualifier CALIBER...

for instance, i don't think NYJ SS kerry rhodes has made the pro bowl... but i would have no hesitation calling him pro bowl caliber... not sure if mike peterson has, but he has clearly played well enough at times in JAX where he could have, & probably should have...

there are only so many slots, yet if a player plays at the nearly or the same level but is edged out, it seems reasonable to call them pro bowl caliber... plus, lets face it, sometimes it is a bit of a popularity contest (& not always, like it should be, based purely on merit)... DAL SS roy williams has arguably gotten by on reputation his past few awards... mario williams imo was absolutely robbed last season... clearly he had a pro bowl worthy season in 2007...

 

[smackdaddies]

re: example 1 of why the Vikes are so low

The Vikings waived defensive end Erasmus James today, according to the team’s website. One of the Vikings’ two first-round picks in the 2005 draft — receiver Troy Williamson was the other — James was waived after failing to pass his physical.

...

The move means only second-round pick Marcus Johnson, an offensive tackle, is left from the Vikings’ 2005 draft class. Also gone are Williamson, safety Dustin Fox, defensive tackle C.J. Mosley and cornerback Adrian Ward.

http://ww3.startribune.com/vikingsblog/?p=1606

(via http://news.footballguys.com/redesign/blogger.php)

 

[Despyzer]

I think you'll like my recent posts a bit more.

All of this seems to make a lot more sense. Good job, Chase.

 

[BoltBacker]

Jammer and Castillo are both Pro Bowl caliber players.

No they're not.

Yes they are.

So which AFC pro bowl DE and CB should they have edged out for their spot then?

I don't know. None? Your question doesn't follow from my statement, though."Pro Bowl caliber" means "really good -- like, about as good as some Pro Bowlers." It has nothing to do with AFC versus NFC, or edging out particular players. Castillo was a second alternate to the Pro Bowl in 2006, which pretty much makes him Pro Bowl caliber right there. And Jammer might never make the Pro Bowl because he doesn't get interceptions -- but (according to Chargers' DB coach Bill Bradley) he graded out as the Chargers' best DB last season, in a secondary that did include Pro Bowler Antonio Cromartie. Norv Turner specifically mentioned Jammer as being snubbed from the Pro Bowl. He is not a Pro Bowler, but he is Pro Bowl caliber.

Maurile, we've disagreed in the past on this subject but do you think Jammer has played at a pro-bowl level before last year? I really don't. In my opinion Jammer played very well the last half of the season and played the best football of his career in the playoffs last year(which is great because that's when it matters).... but that's about 12 games out of his 93 game career. I'm not even sure I'd put his play at "above average" for a majority of those 93 games.Another point I'd like to bring up is the fact he's improved his play steadily over the last half of his career but I think it may be more than just a coincidence that the Chargers have been among the sack leaders in the NFL over the past 2-3 years when his level of play has ascended. I guess you could make the case that it's a "Which came first the chicken or the egg" argument because it's possible that the DB's improved coverage could have contributed to the sacks... but having watched a majority of the games I don't think that's the case.

I'm absolutely disappointed in Jammer based on a player drafted #5 overall if you look at his career as a whole. Played great in the playoffs and seems to be improving lately but he has a ways to go to overcome those first 3-4 years of his career in my estimation.

 

[Despyzer]

Maurile, we've disagreed in the past on this subject but do you think Jammer has played at a pro-bowl level before last year? I really don't. In my opinion Jammer played very well the last half of the season and played the best football of his career in the playoffs last year(which is great because that's when it matters).... but that's about 12 games out of his 93 game career. I'm not even sure I'd put his play at "above average" for a majority of those 93 games.Another point I'd like to bring up is the fact he's improved his play steadily over the last half of his career but I think it may be more than just a coincidence that the Chargers have been among the sack leaders in the NFL over the past 2-3 years when his level of play has ascended. I guess you could make the case that it's a "Which came first the chicken or the egg" argument because it's possible that the DB's improved coverage could have contributed to the sacks... but having watched a majority of the games I don't think that's the case.I'm absolutely disappointed in Jammer based on a player drafted #5 overall if you look at his career as a whole. Played great in the playoffs and seems to be improving lately but he has a ways to go to overcome those first 3-4 years of his career in my estimation.

Uh oh... looks like another one of those rabid Bryan Still fans. :(

 

[BoltBacker]

Jammer and Castillo are both Pro Bowl caliber players.

No they're not.

Yes they are.

So which AFC pro bowl DE and CB should they have edged out for their spot then?

Well, Allen is in the NFC now. After Williams/VandenBosch I wouldn't trade Castillo for any of the other guys. Taylor has started to decline imo... his sack #'s were there but they seemed pretty hollow to me. That defense was just awful last year and didn't make many meaningful plays like he did in '06 when I felt he should have gotten consideration for MVP. Freeney is coming back from an injury and wasn't nearly as dominant last season. I'm not sure if any of the other AFC DE's are clearly better than Castillo.

 

[BoltBacker]

Chargers fans>Luis Castillo is now above average. He ranks 704th out of 2,483 players. Quentin Jammer, sadly, ranks 2,183rd. Jammer ranks 347th if you rank players simply by approximate career value relative to draft class, which is pretty good. This just means, as it should, that being the 5th pick in the draft brings really, really high expectations. And while it's easy to say that right now Jammer is good, he was the starting corner on some terrible defenses early in his career. Each year is weighted evenly, so the fact that he's good now just cancels out the non-production he had in the early stages of his career. But yes, you could argue that Jammer is underrated, but in general, CBs aren't really underrated by this approximate value system. Very good CBs that don't get interceptions, don't get Pro Bowl berths, and don't play on good defenses are probably systemically underrated. But there aren't that many of those, Jammer excluded.

That sounds better but I take issue with the ratings on Eli and Leaf. If you are just judging on production there shouldn't be any comparison at all, they shouldn't be graded that close together. This isn't the post SB rose goggles either, Eli's simply been a TON more productive in the regular season than Leaf ever was. This system for comparison seems out of whack to me.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Chargers fans>Luis Castillo is now above average. He ranks 704th out of 2,483 players. Quentin Jammer, sadly, ranks 2,183rd. Jammer ranks 347th if you rank players simply by approximate career value relative to draft class, which is pretty good. This just means, as it should, that being the 5th pick in the draft brings really, really high expectations. And while it's easy to say that right now Jammer is good, he was the starting corner on some terrible defenses early in his career. Each year is weighted evenly, so the fact that he's good now just cancels out the non-production he had in the early stages of his career. But yes, you could argue that Jammer is underrated, but in general, CBs aren't really underrated by this approximate value system. Very good CBs that don't get interceptions, don't get Pro Bowl berths, and don't play on good defenses are probably systemically underrated. But there aren't that many of those, Jammer excluded.

That sounds better but I take issue with the ratings on Eli and Leaf. If you are just judging on production there shouldn't be any comparison at all, they shouldn't be graded that close together. This isn't the post SB rose goggles either, Eli's simply been a TON more productive in the regular season than Leaf ever was. This system for comparison seems out of whack to me.

Eli ranks next to Leaf in some ways, but not in others. Yes, Leaf ranks 2,483rd and Eli 2,275th; that's pretty close. But Leaf's score (-1.54) is a lot worse than Manning's score (-0.40). The difference between Leaf and Manning is equivalent to the difference between Manning and and the guy ranked 150th. So really, Manning is equidistant to someone that was in the top 6% of draft picks over the ten years, and the guy that was dead last. That seems about right to me -- it makes Eli a slightly below average pick, which he has been in the regular season. Manning was the first pick in the draft, but Tommie Harris, Roethlisberger, Steven Jackson, Jared Allen and Larry Fitzgerald have all been better than Manning on an absolute basis, and obviously way better when you consider draft position.Eli's been a mild underachiever in the regular season, but he's been a huge success for the Giants franchise.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Jammer and Castillo are both Pro Bowl caliber players.

No they're not.

Yes they are.

So which AFC pro bowl DE and CB should they have edged out for their spot then?

Well, Allen is in the NFC now. After Williams/VandenBosch I wouldn't trade Castillo for any of the other guys. Taylor has started to decline imo... his sack #'s were there but they seemed pretty hollow to me. That defense was just awful last year and didn't make many meaningful plays like he did in '06 when I felt he should have gotten consideration for MVP. Freeney is coming back from an injury and wasn't nearly as dominant last season. I'm not sure if any of the other AFC DE's are clearly better than Castillo.

Once again, the key point with Castillo is potential. He may be a Pro Bowl DE next year. But you can't give him credit for that now. He's still a first round pick that's started 33 games in three seasons. He's been just slightly above average so far.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Fantastic stuff Chase. The new system makes more intuitive sense.

 

[aggie_dave]

Not sure this adds too much to the conversation, but I find it almost funny how bad Detroit really is at drafting. Provided Roy leaves after this season (looks very likely), there will only be one of 4 first round WRs even left on the team. On top of that, Johnson is still young enough that who knows what he has at the pro level!

 

[T Bell]

The new list seems much more representative of what we would expect. I don't know who Andre T. Johnson is, but as long as he's not the WR for the Texans, I don't have a problem with anyone on those lists or their orders. Good work all around.

30th pick in the draft by the Redskins, who never played a down with Washington, and started zero games and played in just three in his entire career.

Yup. They cut him during training camp. In 1996, the year they drafted him. In the first round. :X :X :X After trading up to get him. :X :X :X :X With the Dallas Cowboys. :X :X :X :X :X

 

[BoltBacker]

Jammer and Castillo are both Pro Bowl caliber players.

No they're not.

Yes they are.

So which AFC pro bowl DE and CB should they have edged out for their spot then?

Well, Allen is in the NFC now. After Williams/VandenBosch I wouldn't trade Castillo for any of the other guys. Taylor has started to decline imo... his sack #'s were there but they seemed pretty hollow to me. That defense was just awful last year and didn't make many meaningful plays like he did in '06 when I felt he should have gotten consideration for MVP. Freeney is coming back from an injury and wasn't nearly as dominant last season. I'm not sure if any of the other AFC DE's are clearly better than Castillo.

Once again, the key point with Castillo is potential. He may be a Pro Bowl DE next year. But you can't give him credit for that now. He's still a first round pick that's started 33 games in three seasons. He's been just slightly above average so far.

I know, I was just commenting on the separate subject being discussed by Bri/Tremblay.... whether or not Castillo is a pro-bowl caliber player or not.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

Great work Chase! This is interesting to me regarding KC, which always gets a rap of being one of the worst drafting teams in the league. But when you look at some of the guys they have taken like Jared Allen, Donnie Edwards, and Joe Horn later on, it somewhat balances the Ryan Sims', and others. If you would have went back to 1995, KC would have been much lower. They took Trezelle Jenkins in the 1st lol

Starting @ 1996 definitely helps KC look good here.

 

[Despyzer]

Great work Chase! This is interesting to me regarding KC, which always gets a rap of being one of the worst drafting teams in the league. But when you look at some of the guys they have taken like Jared Allen, Donnie Edwards, and Joe Horn later on, it somewhat balances the Ryan Sims', and others. If you would have went back to 1995, KC would have been much lower. They took Trezelle Jenkins in the 1st lolStarting @ 1996 definitely helps KC look good here.

Just think if he went all the way back to 1983!