I was in the pool
Footballguy
Thoughts? Feelings?
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Better Keeper prospect - A.Hernandez or Bradford? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter I was in the pool
- Start date
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
It depends on how many keepers you're talking about, but I think both have the chance to be special at their positions for a long time - like perennial top 3 special. Two differences though: 1) At QB, that elite level of production can last 10-12 years and certainly longer than the average TE, and 2) what happens to Hernandez when Brady starts regressing in a few years (if he hasn't a little already)?
So I'd lean towards Bradford here easily, and I say that as a Hernandez owner.
So I'd lean towards Bradford here easily, and I say that as a Hernandez owner.
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FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Bradford hands down. And I REALLY like Hernandez in dynasty. My reasoning for Bradford has more to do with positional scarcity and his relative position on the learning curve. He's accomplished what few other rookie QB's are ever able to do and with a very questionable supporting cast. Already...I could count on two hands the number of QB's I'd draft ahead of him in a startup dynasty. That's a rare gem at that position.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
I look at Bradford's stats from the season and wonder how a rookie QB is doing this with the weapons he has....amazing. Ryan had Turner on the ground and R.White at the #1 spot. Sanchez had a great ground game during his effective rookie campaign. I can't believe how efficient Bradford has been this year with Amendola (?!?!) at WR1.
Steven Jackson is pretty good, I hear.
Positional scarcity? Dude....I hate to break it to you, but in most leagues qbs are a dime a dozen. Guys like Eli, Fitzpatrick, Freeman, etc...have all been pulled off our wire (10 team competitive league for money) in the last couple of weeks. There is no such thing as positional scarcity with qbs. Not only that, but from year to year, aside from Peyton Manning, it is damn near impossible to figure out who is worth drafting early.
Tight end, on the other hand, is a position where you are at a distinct disadvantage if you do not have a top 5 player...to me I am thinking that Hernendaz has a way better shot to be top five at his position than Bradford. Bradford is good, don't get me wrong, but I am not seeing him as a Manning/Brady type anytime in the future.
footballnerd
Footballguy
I guess it all depends on what keeper round you lose vs their adp next year. All factors equal, I'd rather keep a QB if they are keepers based on potential. To get a great ADP value on a QB is huge, since QBs contribute to a substantially larger portion of your scoring than TE. If it was Gates a for sure top TE, then it was be easier to go TE.
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It probably also depends on how many keepers you get too...I can't imagine anyone keeping Bradford unless you can keep 3 or more players, same with Hernendaz.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Dude...I hate to break it to you but I'm not talking about all QB's. I'm talking about the elite tier. Peyton, Rodgers, Rivers. Bradford is beyond good. In terms of where he's at on the curve compared to the population of all other rookie QB's in recent history? Granted, he's not there yet but what have you seen that tells you he's not on the fast track toward top 5 status? Heck, he's 18th-20th (depending on your scoring system) while bumbling around as a rookie without the casual fan being able to name a single WR on the team.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
I think the real argument is between....
The potential of Bradford - do you see him "fast tracking" to a top talent.
AND
How deep is the TE position really and can Hernandez get into the top-5 as soon as 2011.
Here are my thought on both. Bradford is uber-talented from the small sample we have under his current conditions in STL. But in FF we have a slew of QBs ahead of him for 2011 - Peyton, Brees, Rodgers (Vick if he's in Philly and Healthy), Eli (my opinion), Rivers, Big Ben, Schaub, probably Ryan. QB is deep - even Orton if conditions are the same in Denver. That still leaves Brady, Flacco, Freeman. Very Deep.
The only things that concern me about Hernandez are that the Pats really spread the ball and change the game plan from week to week (where a guy can have 10 targets one week and only 2 targets the next...and that's by design), and that I don't see Hernandez as a 10+ TD guy (with Gronk in the mix doesn't help). While you can be Witten (5 scores or less) and be a top guy, it's just that much harder.
Other than those two points, I love Hernandez - love that he's freaking 20 years old and doing the things he's doing - splitting out wide against NFL corners and being productive - getting WIDE open in the NFL, which isn't easy. His top competition for TE in 2011 will be the usual suspects - Clark, Gates, Z.Miller, Keller, V.Davis, Witten. I think he's got a decent shot to beat 2 of those guys in PPR scoring next year....
The potential of Bradford - do you see him "fast tracking" to a top talent.
AND
How deep is the TE position really and can Hernandez get into the top-5 as soon as 2011.
Here are my thought on both. Bradford is uber-talented from the small sample we have under his current conditions in STL. But in FF we have a slew of QBs ahead of him for 2011 - Peyton, Brees, Rodgers (Vick if he's in Philly and Healthy), Eli (my opinion), Rivers, Big Ben, Schaub, probably Ryan. QB is deep - even Orton if conditions are the same in Denver. That still leaves Brady, Flacco, Freeman. Very Deep.
The only things that concern me about Hernandez are that the Pats really spread the ball and change the game plan from week to week (where a guy can have 10 targets one week and only 2 targets the next...and that's by design), and that I don't see Hernandez as a 10+ TD guy (with Gronk in the mix doesn't help). While you can be Witten (5 scores or less) and be a top guy, it's just that much harder.
Other than those two points, I love Hernandez - love that he's freaking 20 years old and doing the things he's doing - splitting out wide against NFL corners and being productive - getting WIDE open in the NFL, which isn't easy. His top competition for TE in 2011 will be the usual suspects - Clark, Gates, Z.Miller, Keller, V.Davis, Witten. I think he's got a decent shot to beat 2 of those guys in PPR scoring next year....
My point is that from year to year, nobody knows what qb is top 5, it is a crapshoot. So wasting a keeper on Bradford in the hopes he is the next superstar is sort of dim. Every year it is as easy as pie to get good qbs in the later rounds or in free agency, not so for rbs or wrs or tes...look at all the high draft picks burned on Brees, Romo, Shaub, Rodgers, and Brady this year, I would bet if you took a poll all of those owners would have taken their chances on getting better depth in the first four rounds and taken a qb like Rivers, Ryan, Flacco, or Eli later on. Every year I wait until round 7 or 8 to get a qb, and every year I end up with a good or great qb somehow. There is no doubt that Bradford looks good, however he is not worth keeping unless you are talking about a league where 4 or 5 guys are kept each year.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
Just for reference - it's a "keep as many as you want" league based on the salary the previous year + $5, then 10%. $200 cap. Both Bradford and Hernandez would be $8.80 in 2011, then close to $14 in 2012 to project even further. Usually the 12th QB is around $10, and the 7th or 8th TE is $10. The top QB is over $30 and the top TE is around $20 each year so far.
I was in the pool
Footballguy
Amen on positional scarcity, too much emphasis on the QB in fantasy football.
I feel like Bradford is Peyton like in that you've locked in an excellent QB for a long times. He could wind up like Carson which would be fine too.
Hernandez looks real good but there is another rookie TE around. Ben Watson's lack of reliable productivity despite a wealth of talent was surely some his fault. However, it's a little red flag for me along with that the Pats seem to draft a TE every year as if it's required and if they miss one year it's like they have to make it up next year and draft two. One could point to that showing the Pats sorely wanted a top TE. It's just that the sum of it doesn't make me anywhere near as comfy as with Bradford.
Easiest way might be to ask-what are the chances each are good for 10 years?
Hernandez looks real good but there is another rookie TE around. Ben Watson's lack of reliable productivity despite a wealth of talent was surely some his fault. However, it's a little red flag for me along with that the Pats seem to draft a TE every year as if it's required and if they miss one year it's like they have to make it up next year and draft two. One could point to that showing the Pats sorely wanted a top TE. It's just that the sum of it doesn't make me anywhere near as comfy as with Bradford.
Easiest way might be to ask-what are the chances each are good for 10 years?
No disrespect intended, but this post is useless for many people. Most truly "competitive" leagues that are worried about long-term prospects of players and discussing positional scarcity ARE NOT 10-team leagues. I would assume that most people who frequent these boards participate in larger leagues, as strategy and discussion about obscure players isn't as important in 8 and 10 team leagues.In a truly competitive 12+ team league, there is no way guys like Eli or Freeman should be on the WW in the last few weeks (both should have been drafted), and Fitzpatrick should have been picked up a few weeks ago, as well.
Bradford is playing very well for a rookie QB, especially one on (what had been) a bad team.
He is averaging 209 passing yards/game, his completion % is 59%, he's averaging 1.4 TD/game, & his TD/INT ratio is 11/8.
Brady's 1st year (as a starter):
203 passing yards/game, 64% completion, 1.3 TD/game, & TD/INT ratio was 18/12.
The numbers are fairly even, and when you consider that Bradford is throwing to WRs that were either rejects from other teams, late-round fliers, or undrafted guys, it's even more impressive.
Hernandez is NOT going to be the FF value that Bradford is. He'll be just another TE. He's not going to be a Gates, Clark, or Gonzalez, and after those 3, there haven't been any perennial top TEs over the last few years.
They're becoming more and more common for a myriad of reasons. I used to think the same sentiment.It definitely does feel different when there's quality on the WW for everyone. I think some seasoned FFers note a skill involved in that then. Also seeing tiny tiny rosters becoming more popular too. My buddy plays in a "no bench league" which he loves. I enjoy the debates with him about WW moves and gotta say it's way more interesting a discussion than I could have about the WW in my 12 team 20 man roster league.I prefer the traditional stuff, but it is interesting.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Pretty much depends on your lineup and scoring, but presuming a 12 team, 1QB, 1 TE league without flex or one you wouldn't use TE as flex, I'll take Bradford. More likely to be a difference maker longer.
If you can use a few TEs and they score well (extra PPR), I'd take Hernandez but I see Bradford as a core player, can't say the same for AH.
If you can use a few TEs and they score well (extra PPR), I'd take Hernandez but I see Bradford as a core player, can't say the same for AH.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
This I strongly disagree with - Hernandez absolutely has the talent to be an annual top 3 TE, and what he's doing as a rookie is extremely impressive given that rookie TE's historically do not perform at a high level. And he's only 20 years old. That said, I'd still choose Bradford given his ceiling is Peyton Manning performance levels, which would carry you at the QB position for at least a decade.Bayhawks said:
I didn't say that Hernandez doesn't have the talent, I said that he wouldn't be a perennial top-5 TE. Look at NE's history with TEs. They aren't STUDS under Belicheck. Furthermore, for him to be a perennial top-5 TE, he'd need to score close to 10 TDs a year. Other than Randy Moss for a few years, NO receiving option in NE has gotten those kind of numbers.BTW-he's 21, his birthday was Nov 5.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I wonder if any NE TE can play with any type of consistancy. The nature of the offense makes my expectations not as high as many.
CaptainHook
Footballguy
definitely hernandez if he maintains his TE status (which ive heard is somewhat doubtful?)
