Better Pickup: Hanson or Madson? (1 Viewer)

[chet]

Both were on my roster in the last couple of weeks, and I dropped both. I got Madson back but missed Hanson on waivers.

Who's the better pickup?

 

[Doctor Detroit]

The singer?

 

[trogg78]

I like Madson. Lidge just went on the DL. Hanson may be a good matchup pitcher, but I don't have him on any teams, and I don't think he's available, so I really don't know. I would expect him to take a lot of lumps.

 

[hooter311]

Madson

 

[Buckfast 1]

Definitely Hanson in my opinion.

 

[hooter311]

Definitely Hanson in my opinion.

A proven reliever with all the peripherals closing for the defending World Champions vs a rookie pitcher backed by a mediocre offense?90% of rookie pitchers are overvalued. Compare Hanson to Jordan Zimmerman. They were creme of the crop minor league pitchers, but the transition to the majors is an entirely new ball game. Hanson's 95 mph fastball is no longer going to be able to dominate hitters on speed alone. Look at the Braves own Kyle Medlan who is another grade A pitching prospect (he does have less "stuff" than Hanson) who struggled the first few weeks of his transition to the majors. Hanson undoubtedly has a higher ceiling with unlimited potential, but there are no guarantees that is going to be evident in his first year up. You are going to have to wait for a fantastic start from him to plug him into your line up, and even then I would be awfully careful which matchups you were playing.Now lets consider Madson: he is a >1k per inning closer with precise command. There is no telling how long Lidge is going to be out, but I would bet a wheat penny it will be for longer than 2 weeks, probably a month minimum. During that time you can leave Madson in your lineup and "set it and forget it" as he will put up Top 5 NL closer stats. Madson has sustained one of the lowest contact rates in the strike zone and one of the highest outside the strike zone swing %. Two huge things to consider when evaluating closers. His cut fastball is also one of the better out pitches in the majors. Worst case scenario is he gives you a month of stats before Lidge returns and then again becomes a capable late inning guy to keep around for his ratios, best case scenario is that Lidge spends a majority of the rest of the season on DL and Madson puts up Top 5 stats the rest of the season. If you miss on Hanson, there will be another capable prospect coming along soon enough, miss on Madson and you'll be kicking yourself for a long time.

 

[KenM746003]

Dynasty - Hanson, Redraft - Madson

 

[Buckfast 1]

Definitely Hanson in my opinion.

A proven reliever with all the peripherals closing for the defending World Champions vs a rookie pitcher backed by a mediocre offense?90% of rookie pitchers are overvalued. Compare Hanson to Jordan Zimmerman. They were creme of the crop minor league pitchers, but the transition to the majors is an entirely new ball game. Hanson's 95 mph fastball is no longer going to be able to dominate hitters on speed alone. Look at the Braves own Kyle Medlan who is another grade A pitching prospect (he does have less "stuff" than Hanson) who struggled the first few weeks of his transition to the majors. Hanson undoubtedly has a higher ceiling with unlimited potential, but there are no guarantees that is going to be evident in his first year up. You are going to have to wait for a fantastic start from him to plug him into your line up, and even then I would be awfully careful which matchups you were playing.Now lets consider Madson: he is a >1k per inning closer with precise command. There is no telling how long Lidge is going to be out, but I would bet a wheat penny it will be for longer than 2 weeks, probably a month minimum. During that time you can leave Madson in your lineup and "set it and forget it" as he will put up Top 5 NL closer stats. Madson has sustained one of the lowest contact rates in the strike zone and one of the highest outside the strike zone swing %. Two huge things to consider when evaluating closers. His cut fastball is also one of the better out pitches in the majors. Worst case scenario is he gives you a month of stats before Lidge returns and then again becomes a capable late inning guy to keep around for his ratios, best case scenario is that Lidge spends a majority of the rest of the season on DL and Madson puts up Top 5 stats the rest of the season. If you miss on Hanson, there will be another capable prospect coming along soon enough, miss on Madson and you'll be kicking yourself for a long time.

You make some strong arguments, and I don't disagree entirely. However, I think I place less value on Madson because of the temporary nature of his value. I read an article today that said that Lidge's knee is already feeling better than his last examination and that he had some cortisone shots in his knee and has rejoined the team. If he is only out for two weeks, Madson is a nice plug-in for the time being, but he is not going to make any significant difference in your ERA, WHIP, or strikeouts over a short period of time pitching limited innings. His sole value will come in the handful of saves that he picks up over a few weeks.Hanson, on the other hand, has the potential to provide a lot more over the course of the season. Sure, rookie pitchers notoriously struggle in their first year, but I believe Hanson has the potential to be one of the great impact rookie pitchers. He is significantly better than Zimmerman and Medlen, the two other pitchers to which you compared him. Over the course of the season, he should provide a significant boost to your strikeout totals and potentially wins while being of questionable value to your ERA and WHIP. If he is as good as billled, he could possibly help you in those catogories as well. We'll have to see. Although he gave up some home runs in his first outing, all reports have said that his stuff looked great and he dominated the Brewers over the first four innings. There's no doubt he will have rocky starts, but I think the value of a starter who has the potential to put up great strikeout numbers for a decent ballclub is more valuable than a fill-in closer for an undetermined period of time. If Lidge is out for the rest of the season or if Madson wins the job outright, this could change, but if I had to choose between the two now, I would definitely go for Hanson in redrafts as well as dynasty.

 

[Buckfast 1]

Considering that Lidge came back and picked up the save yesterday, therefore nullifying any value Madson might have had, and Hanson has gone 4-0 in 4 starts with a 0.78 ERA (with starts against the Red Sox and the Yankees) since the original post, I am going to have to say that Tommy Hanson was the correct answer to this question.

 

[dparker713]

He is significantly better than Zimmerman and Medlen, the two other pitchers to which you compared him.

If you actually dig into the numbers, ZimmermanN has been significantly better than Hanson. Much better K/9, BB/9, K/BB, FB/GB, DIPS, ERC, etc. However, Zimmermann's defense behind him has been bad generally and he's also been unlucky with a .310 BABIP (which has come down quite a bit in his last few starts) Meanwhile, Hanson is sitting with an unsustainable .233 BABIP. Sure, Hanson will get more wins as the Braves don't stink nearly as bad as the Nats, but to this point Hanson has been more lucky than good.

 

[Buckfast 1]

He is significantly better than Zimmerman and Medlen, the two other pitchers to which you compared him.

If you actually dig into the numbers, ZimmermanN has been significantly better than Hanson. Much better K/9, BB/9, K/BB, FB/GB, DIPS, ERC, etc. However, Zimmermann's defense behind him has been bad generally and he's also been unlucky with a .310 BABIP (which has come down quite a bit in his last few starts) Meanwhile, Hanson is sitting with an unsustainable .233 BABIP. Sure, Hanson will get more wins as the Braves don't stink nearly as bad as the Nats, but to this point Hanson has been more lucky than good.

I wasn't intending to compare Zimmermann's performance to Hanson's so far this season with that post. I just meant that Hanson is regarded as a higher prospect with better stuff and likely a higher ceiling than either Zimmermann or Medlen. I was just responding to the argument that all rookie starting pitchers struggle their first year and suggested that Hanson may fare slightly better than the other pitchers mentioned upon being called up. That said, you make great points about both Zimmermann's and Hanson's peripherals. Both Zimmermann and Hanson are due for corrections in their luck (Zimmermann in a favorable sense, Hanson in the unfavorable sense). I think Zimmermann is a great buy-low candidate right now. He has put up some stellar peripheral stats over the past 4 starts. Regardless of Zimmermann comparison, Hanson was still the better pickup than Madson.