Better shot of winning the WS in the next 10 years... (1 Viewer)

[Raider Nation]

Indulge me for a second, and let's assume that hell will freeze over.

Which team would most likely get there first?

 

[Spartans Rule]

I'm going Pirates.

To me the big thing is the divisions. For Pittsburgh or Kansas City to win it all, they're going to have to sneak out of a weak division, then catch fire in the playoffs.

The AL Central has two top 5 payrolls in the Tigers and White Sox, and the Twins and Indians are pretty good at getting a lot out of their budget. The last time somebody won the AL Central with less than 90 wins was 1998.

The NL Central has a whole lot of mediocrity. The biggest spenders are the Cubs, and they're the Cubs. St. Louis won the World Series after winning this division at 83-78 in 2006. That's what Pittsburgh would have to do.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm going Pirates.To me the big thing is the divisions. For Pittsburgh or Kansas City to win it all, they're going to have to sneak out of a weak division, then catch fire in the playoffs.The AL Central has two top 5 payrolls in the Tigers and White Sox, and the Twins and Indians are pretty good at getting a lot out of their budget. The last time somebody won the AL Central with less than 90 wins was 1998.The NL Central has a whole lot of mediocrity. The biggest spenders are the Cubs, and they're the Cubs. St. Louis won the World Series after winning this division at 83-78 in 2006. That's what Pittsburgh would have to do.

Not to mention that the Royals would likely have to get through more high-payroll teams should they get out of the AL Central than Pittsburgh would have to if they won the NL Central. Perhaps the better question would have been Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati.

 

[Eephus]

Spartan's logic around strength of division is pretty sound, although none of the big spenders in the AL Central have done it over the long term (and Mike Ilitch isn't going to live forever). Pittsburgh has a newer ballpark and plays in a larger media market (#22 vs #31). KC has less regional competition but isn't an institution like the Redbirds.

One thing the Royals have going for them is young talent. Butler, Gordon & Greinke are better than their Pirates counterparts. Andrew McCutchen is tearing up AAA in the early season. Neither team has done a very good job with player selection and development.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Perhaps the better question would have been Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati.

I think that's Cincinnati easy.The Reds have raised their payroll a bit recently (now 18th in MLB) and have a lot of young talent... Cueto, Volquez and Bailey could make a nice rotation, and of course there's Jay Bruce.It's not a great situation or anything, but they're not in the dire straits that the Pirates are.

 

[el super gringo]

Perhaps the better question would have been Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati.

I think that's Cincinnati easy.The Reds have raised their payroll a bit recently (now 18th in MLB) and have a lot of young talent... Cueto, Volquez and Bailey could make a nice rotation, and of course there's Jay Bruce.It's not a great situation or anything, but they're not in the dire straits that the Pirates are.

And don't forget Brandon Phillips and Adam Dunn hitting in a HR friendly park.

 

[Steelers4Life]

The one thing about the Pirates right now is that there is definitely a change in the mentality of the front office. Lots of press about it, but they're focusing a lot more on player development and accountability within the organization, and they won't be making draft picks based on financial constraints anymore. Supposedly there is definitely more money to be spent, but they aren't going to sink money into the payroll of the major league roster to win 75 games instead of 65. When they think they have enough pieces in place, they'll increase the payroll.

Their future may depend a great deal on what happens near the trade deadline when they attempt to move Bay, Nady, Marte, and Grabow to contenders. All of them are doing well and should be able to bring back pieces the team needs to build around. The Indians tried to lowball the Pirates for Bay in the offseason, but to their credit the new ownership group decided to wait and let him build his value back up. Coincidentally, the offer included Cliff Lee (Shoppach and Gutierrez too, I think), but no one saw this coming from him this year after what he did in 2007.

They're going to need McCutchen, Walker, and Pearce to continue to develop and sprinkle in some more pieces over the next couple years. I believe McClouth and Doumit are for real.

But a world series? I don't see it anytime soon.

 

[iSnitch]

I really don't see either one as a WS contender over the next decade. I realize a LOT can change in ten years but both franchises have been terrible for a very long time.

Imo the Giants are currently one of the worse teams in baseball and I think they have a better shot of making it within a decade. Pittsburgh and Kansas City have been inept for a long time. It's going to take a lot before I stopped being so cynical.

 

[Eephus]

Perhaps the better question would have been Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati.

I think that's Cincinnati easy.The Reds have raised their payroll a bit recently (now 18th in MLB) and have a lot of young talent... Cueto, Volquez and Bailey could make a nice rotation, and of course there's Jay Bruce.It's not a great situation or anything, but they're not in the dire straits that the Pirates are.

And don't forget Brandon Phillips and Adam Dunn hitting in a HR friendly park.

Playing in an extreme home park can be a negative factor if it leads Management to overestimate the team's strengths or underestimate it's weaknesses.For instance, Brandon Phillips is a much better fantasy player in Cincinnati than he would be elsewhere. In real-life, the GAB just makes him appear better than he really is. That's not a big problem when he's hitting 30 HRs in his prime but in a few years, if he stops being a viable defender at 2B or loses some of his already poor OBP, it could cause the Reds to make a bad contract decision.The other problem with a strong hitters park is the toll it takes on pitchers. Bringing Dusty Baker into the mix isn't helping here either.

 

[PIK95]

Perhaps the better question would have been Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati.

I think that's Cincinnati easy.The Reds have raised their payroll a bit recently (now 18th in MLB) and have a lot of young talent... Cueto, Volquez and Bailey could make a nice rotation, and of course there's Jay Bruce.

It's not a great situation or anything, but they're not in the dire straits that the Pirates are.

And don't forget Brandon Phillips and Adam Dunn hitting in a HR friendly park.

 

[RnR]

Perhaps the better question would have been Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati.

I think that's Cincinnati easy.The Reds have raised their payroll a bit recently (now 18th in MLB) and have a lot of young talent... Cueto, Volquez and Bailey could make a nice rotation, and of course there's Jay Bruce.

It's not a great situation or anything, but they're not in the dire straits that the Pirates are.

And don't forget Brandon Phillips and Adam Dunn hitting in a HR friendly park.

Posted May 7 of 2008.

 

[Sea Bass]

KC