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Big Ten Basketball 2022/2023 - Return to Power (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Garrett
- Start date
You can come up with fantastic metrics and still have a crappy rating system, which is exactly what he has done. Kind of like only to use results from the NFL combines to rank talent. It gives you interesting insight into some things, but it is not always the best ranking of talent.
And yes, Michigan is easily a top 20 team.
And yes, Michigan is easily a top 20 team.
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Garrett
Footballguy
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
You obviously don't understand kenpom.He's very respected in college basketball circles and darn good when it comes to the NCAA tourney. Most college basketball websites and rankings websites consider his rankings on par with RPI and Sagarin rankings
Ratings Explanation
The first thing you should know about this system is that it is designed to be purely predictive. If you’re looking for a system that rates teams on how “good” their season has been, you’ve come to the wrong place.
The purpose of this system is to show how strong a team would be if it played tonight, independent of injuries or emotional factors. Since nobody can see every team play all (or even most) of their games, this system is designed to give you a snapshot of a team’s current level of play.
I would describe the philosophy of the system as this: it looks at who a team has beaten and how they have beaten them. Same thing on the losses, also. Yes, it values a 20 point win more than a 5 point win. It likes a team that loses a lot of close games against strong opposition more than one that wins a lot of close games against weak opposition.
The core of the system is the pythagorean calculation for expected winning percentage. In previous experiments, I found the best exponent for college basketball was between 8 and 9. But for whatever reason, when using adjusted efficiencies, the best exponent is between 11 and 12, probably because previous experiments only included conference games. I am using 11.5 as the exponent.
How did I determine the best exponent? I applied the log5 formula to every game last season and found the exponent with the best fit for expected winning percentages. (A problem here is that I applied the final ratings retroactively to the last season’s results, so it’s a little high for predictive purposes. This will be revisited eventually.) You can get an idea of the chance one team beats another by applying the log5 formula to the two teams’ pythagorean rating. There is a home court advantage consideration, also. More on that, later.
The inputs into the pythagorean equation are the team’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. Any time you see something “adjusted” on this site, it refers to how a team would perform against average competition at a neutral site. For instance, a team’s offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) is adjusted for the strength of the opposing defenses played. I compute an adjusted offensive efficiency for each game by multiplying the team’s raw offensive efficiency by the national average efficiency and dividing by the opponent’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The adjusted game efficiencies are then averaged (with more weighting to recent games) to produce the final adjusted offensive efficiency.
While the pythagorean winning percentage is calibrated to the likelihood of winning, the efficiencies are based purely on scoring per possession with no consideration of winning or losing. This allows us to get both a chance of winning and a predicted final score with the system, and makes the system much more predictive than if we ignored scoring margin. It also has the advantage of giving a rating in offensive and defensive terms, and an SOS in those terms, as well. Want to know which team has faced the toughest defenses? Well, with my system you can.
All I know is Kenpom's ranking right now suck. He must have some kind of bad basis left over from last year, because he is grossly over-ranking Wisconsin and grossly under-ranking Michigan. Perhaps later in the season he rankings will make a lot more sense, but as of now it sucks.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
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Says a fan who watches the games. I realize they are not as good as MSU, OSU, or IU. Michigan is on par with Wisconsin and will finish with a very similar record. Unlike you, I was not shocked at all that MSU went into Wisconsin and beat them on their own floor. MSU is a better team.Says Michigan fan...
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
hehehe OK Nostradamus....Says a fan who watches the games. I realize they are not as good as MSU, OSU, or IU. Michigan is on par with Wisconsin and will finish with a very similar record. Unlike you, I was not shocked at all that MSU went into Wisconsin and beat them on their own floor. MSU is a better team.Says Michigan fan...
Garrett
Footballguy
I agree that Wisconsin currently being #2 overall in the kenpom rankings is revealing some flaws in the whole equation/system. That is just wrong. Kentucky would beat Wisconsin by 28 points.Says a fan who watches the games. I realize they are not as good as MSU, OSU, or IU. Michigan is on par with Wisconsin and will finish with a very similar record. Unlike you, I was not shocked at all that MSU went into Wisconsin and beat them on their own floor. MSU is a better team.Says Michigan fan...
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Garrett
Footballguy
espn3.comits live there now...
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
Looking at Michigan's results, I'm not really impressed. They beat Memphis and UCLA in Maui, both big names but neither is having a very good season. Other than that, their best win is Minnesota at home.
I haven't seen them play so maybe the eye test says otherwise, but it's not a mystery why a computer would have them at 46.
I haven't seen them play so maybe the eye test says otherwise, but it's not a mystery why a computer would have them at 46.
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
The flaw seems to be in terms of margin of victory vs. bad teams.Wisconsin pounded bad teams because they can get open looks all day. They only have one guy (Jordan Taylor) who can create shots against Big Ten defenses.
Garrett
Footballguy
They looked shell shocked early at Assembly Hall...
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Indiana firing on all cylinders early...
Nobody is going to beat IU at assembly hall this year.
The General
Footballguy
Hoosiers looking great. Going deep into the bench.
Garrett
Footballguy
Speaking of bench, hopefully they will have Sheehey back soon.
Garrett
Footballguy
...or next year.
Indiana 4 of 6 so far. MSU was effective in taking away the three, but Michigan is giving IU way too many open looks.
The General
Footballguy
Michigan back in the game. They can really shoot 3's and have a couple of guys who can really get to the basket. Gonna be a close game
Anybody who thinks Michigan is 43rd in the country is on dope.
The General
Footballguy
They look good. Shoot a lot of 3's which makes them dangerous, in this game at least.
The General
Footballguy
Michigan won't die.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Good win by IU. It will be hard for Michigan to win games with Burke and Hardaway shooting like that, I was surprised they were able to scrap as close as they did.
Big Ten is going to be tough this year.
Big Ten is going to be tough this year.
The General
Footballguy
Great game by Michigan/IU. Michigan is wild, they shoot like crazy. If they get hot in a game they can do damage.
Mostly Hardaway. The others were a lot more disciplined. Michigan only had 12 turnovers to Indiana 16. What I really don't get IU only taking 3 threes in the second, making 2 of them. They should be putting up 8 or so every half, IMO.
It will be a long year for Purdue in the Big 10. Too many really good teams in the league.Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points.
Garrett
Footballguy
Penn State is looking extra special bad, 10 points in the first half vs Saint Joseph...
Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Iowa hanging in early vs the Bucks
Purdue will be really lucky to finish at .500Going to be a rough year. They'll win some tough games, but will probably finish at .500 in the conf and squeak into the tourney.'Garrett said:Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Hummel's not the same player. Lot's of guys need to develop. However, they are deep so I think they'll play well enough at times to get to the .500 mark. But it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.Purdue will be really lucky to finish at .500Going to be a rough year. They'll win some tough games, but will probably finish at .500 in the conf and squeak into the tourney.'Garrett said:Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points.
They still have seven conference games left against ranked teams. I doubt they win more than one of those. Purdue is probably good enough to be in the tourney, but they have a tough hill to climb. That Penn State loss was huge one that they could not afford.Hummel's not the same player. Lot's of guys need to develop. However, they are deep so I think they'll play well enough at times to get to the .500 mark. But it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.Purdue will be really lucky to finish at .500Going to be a rough year. They'll win some tough games, but will probably finish at .500 in the conf and squeak into the tourney.'Garrett said:Penn State beat Purdue by 20 points.
The Real Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Illinois is not good. Their basketball team reminds me of their football team. Good enough talent to finish in the top portion of the Big Ten, but they can't coach worth a crap. I will be happy as long as Weber stays there. If they hired the right coach they could see an almost IU level resurgence. The Chicago area is absolutely loaded with talent.'jon_mx said:
Not this year. Top 5 are pretty well set in stone. And see Purdue getting the 6th spot.
