UM Hoops and Inside the Hall put together a preseason ranking of the top 25 players in the conference going into this season...
25. Tai Webster, Nebraska (6-foot-2, guard, freshman)
You might not know the name, but Webster (pictured), a 6-foot-4 guard from New Zealand, is one of the more talented newcomers in the league. Webster averaged 13.5 points per game in the 2012 Olympic Qualifiers for New Zealand at just 17 years of age and should start for Nebraska at point guard. Nebraska opens a new arena this season and Webster could be the face of Tim Miles’ rebuilding project. Webster had offers from Pitt, St. Mary’s, Virginia and LSU and while he probably won’t turn the Cornhuskers into contenders this season, he will certainly be an upgrade. ESPN international expert Fran Fraschilla speaks highly of him and argues he’s the equivalent of a top-25 recruit. “This is a definite coup for the Huskers,”
Fraschilla told the Journal Star. “I’d be shocked if there were 25 better 17-year-old players in the States than this kid.”
24. Terone Johnson, Purdue (6-foot-2, guard, senior)
32.1 mpg, 13.5 ppg, 2.9 apg, 4.7 rpg, .5 spg, 44.5 eFG percentage
Johnson was voted to the All-Big Ten third team by the coaches last season and he led the Boilermakers in scoring while posting career bests in three-point and free throw shooting. That said, he’s still a rather inefficient combo guard. He got to the line less often as a junior and his two-point percentage plummeted as he took on a bigger role in the Purdue backcourt. He shot just 42 percent inside the arc and attempted just 25 free throws per 100 field goal attempts, well below his 40 percent free throw rate as a sophomore. Johnson will look on to lead as a senior and get the most out of his underclassmen teammates Ronnie Johnson, Rapheal Davis and A.J. Hammons, all of whom had growing years last season.
23. Shannon Scott, Ohio State (6-foot-1, guard, junior)
20.9 mpg, 4.9 ppg, 3.8 apg, 2.8 rpg, 1.7 spg, 44.6 eFG percentage
Scott was the best setup man in the Big Ten (on a per-possession basis) not named Trey Burke last season and even without his primary target – Deshaun Thomas – on the roster, he’s a player to watch. Aaron Craft has a reputation as one of the best defenders in the country but Scott makes plays on both sides of the ball. More than just a passer, Scott actually topped Craft and Victor Oladipo to lead the Big Ten in steal rate last season. That’s impressive considering one player was the No. 2 pick in the NBA Draft and the other has been considered one of the best perimeter defenders in the country for the last couple of seasons. Scott has the raw ability to jump up this list but will have to improve his scoring efficiency as he shot just 43 percent inside the arc and 33 percent on 33 attempts from beyond the arc last season.
22. Zak Irvin, Michigan (6-foot-6, guard, freshman)
Freshmen need talent and opportunity to excel in their first season. Irvin has both. Indiana’s Mr. Basketball is a legitimate scorer and he could step into Tim Hardaway Jr.’s shoes (and shots) from day one. Irvin can create his own shot off the dribble and is also a smooth jump shooter off the catch. John Beilein knows how to get his players shots and if Irvin makes his share he could have a real shot at being one of the top freshmen in the Big Ten. Irvin is a perfect fit for the wing position in Beilein’s offense and Michigan’s head man has shown no hesitation to throw freshmen into the fire. At least one Wolverine has been represented on the All-Big Ten Freshman team in each of the last three seasons (Tim Hardaway Jr., Trey Burke and Glenn Robinson III).
21. Lenzelle Smith Jr., Ohio State (6-foot-4, guard, senior)
27.4 mpg, 9.2 ppg, 1.5 apg, 4.8 rpg, .5 spg, 51.5 eFG percentage
Smith has started the last two seasons for the Buckeyes and should be in line for an increased offensive role thanks to the departure of Deshaun Thomas. Smith was Ohio State’s primary perimeter shooting threat last season, going 49-of-131 from long range, but he also is a great rebounding guard. He posted a defensive rebounding rate of 15.3 percent, top-25 in the conference and better than any player 6-foot-4 or shorter. A lot of the offseason talk will surround Ohio State’s frontcourt players and Aaron Craft but Smith is as reliable as it gets for a do-everything off guard in the conference.
20. D.J. Newbill, Penn State (6-foot-4, guard, junior)
36.5 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 5 rpg, 4 apg, 1.2 spg, 42.8 eFG percentage
Newbill’s role took on a major shift just four games into last season when Penn State lost Tim Frazier for the season with a ruptured Achilles tendon. The transfer from Southern Miss instantly became a go-to scoring option for Pat Chambers as he used 30.9 percent of his team’s possessions, the highest usage for any Big Ten player. On a winning team, Newbill’s stats would have been good enough for All-Big Ten status, but Penn State finished in the league cellar. Efficiency wasn’t really Newbill’s calling card as he shot just 43.4 percent on 2-point field goals and a dismal 26.7 percent on 3-pointers. He did, however, draw 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes and posted an assist rate of 29.5, which was fourth among Big Ten players. As a redshirt junior, he’ll welcome Frazier back into the lineup and form what should be one of the league’s more potent backcourts.
19. Branden Dawson, Michigan State (6-foot-6, forward, junior)
26.9 mpg, 8.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 1.6 spg, 1.3 apg, 53.1 eFG percentage
As remarkable as Dawson’s speedy return from a torn ACL was, his production didn’t make the leap that many projected after a solid freshman campaign. Despite a rise in playing time by more than six per minutes per game, his overall numbers only took a modest leap and his shooting numbers were down across the board. He was also less effective on the offensive glass as his offensive rebounding percentage dropped from 13.3 percent as a freshman to 9.9 as a sophomore. His assignment on this list was one of our tougher tasks because of his unquestioned talent and upside, but the reality to this point in his career is that Dawson is an undersized forward who hasn’t proven he can shoot outside of ten feet.
18. Nik Stauskas, Michigan (6-foot-6, guard, sophomore)
30.5 mpg, 11.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.3 apg, .6 spg, 59.7 eFG percentage
Elite shooters are a commodity at any level of basketball and that’s exactly what Stauskas was last season at Michigan. Surrounded by two first round NBA Draft picks in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. and two future first rounders in Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary, Stauskas hit 44 percent of his 3-pointers, which is exactly the role John Beilein needed him to fill. His 22 points against Florida in the NCAA Tournament helped push the Wolverines to their first Final Four appearance since 1993. As a sophomore, Stauskas will likely find himself with more opportunities in screening situations, where he scored 1.18 points per possession as a freshman. That was the highest of any Big Ten player with more than 25 attempts.
17. A.J. Hammons, Purdue (7-foot-0, center, sophomore)
23.1 mpg, 10.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2 bpg, 49.5 eFG percentage
Despite a proclamation that Hammons could be a contender for Big Ten player of the year by ESPN college basketball analyst and radio host Dan Dakich, we’re not ready to cast the Purdue sophomore in that role just yet. Hammons had a very good freshman season as he ranked in the top ten in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage (11.6) and block percentage (8.7). But as dominant as Hammons was at times, he also had games where he either battled foul trouble or just wasn’t in the condition to play more than 20 minutes. The good news for Purdue fans is that Hammons has reportedly trimmed down even more. He was listed at 280 pounds last season and is now listed at 256 on Purdue’s official site, which makes him a candidate to outperform his spot on this list.
16. Roy Marble, Iowa (6-foot-6, guard, senior)
30.5 mpg, 15.0 ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg, 1.1 spg, 46.6 eFG percentage
Iowa got another taste of the postseason last year under Fran McCaffery – albeit in the NIT – but the Hawkeyes look poised for the NCAA tournament this year and Marble is a big reason why. Marble led the Hawkeyes all the way to the NIT finals last season as he averaged averaged 20.6 points, 2.4 steals and four rebounds in five games. Iowa returns the core of its team, led by Aaron White and Marble. One of the strengths of his game is getting to the line as he posted a free throw rate of 44.0 percent last season and hit 81 percent from the line. The 3-point shot became a much bigger part of his offensive game as a junior as he took 150 shots from beyond the perimeter, where he hit just 32.7 percent. As a senior, Marble may be best served to become a little more selective offensively, especially on the perimeter, and look to distribute more (22.4 assist rate as a junior).
15. Drew Crawford, Northwestern (6-foot-5, wing, senior)
31.8 mpg, 13.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.7 apg, 1 spg, 47 eFG percentage (10 GP)
Crawford had improved steadily throughout his career at Northwestern and appeared to be on his way to a big season when he was forced to undergo season ending should surgery in December. When healthy, he’s proven that he’s one of the more reliable wing guards in the conference with career per game averages of 13.5 points and 4.6 rebounds. He’s a capable finisher at the basket and shot over 41 percent from long range in his last full season. While his role in new head coach Chris Collins’ remains to be seen, Crawford
sounds excited to play in Collins’s new system. “I enjoyed playing the Princeton offense. It’s a really unique way of playing basketball,” Crawford told ESPN. “But Coach Collins has brought us back to the fundamentals, and it’s brought me back to playing basketball the way I did before I was in college. It’s definitely an exciting time.”
14. Will Sheehey, Indiana (6-foot-6, wing, senior)
22.2 mpg, 9.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, .8 spg, 54 eFG percentage
Sheehey had his most efficient season as a junior but was decidedly second fiddle to superstar teammates Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller. He brings a little bit of everything to the table on both ends of the floor. He can knock down the three (35 percent), get to the basket (55 percent 2-point shooting), draw fouls, and he doesn’t turn it over. While he was the best sixth man in the conference last season, it remains to be seen whether he’s ready to be relied on as a focal point of the Hoosier offense. He’s always excelled playing off of the ball and spotting up on the wings but it’s easier to do that when opponents are game planning for your teammates. After participating in adidas Nations and the World University Games in Russia, Sheehey looks like a player ready to take the next step in his development as a senior.
13. Keith Appling, Michigan State (6-foot-2, guard, senior)
33.6 mpg, 13.4 ppg, 3.3 apg, 3.4 rpg, 1.3 spg, 46.9 eFG percentage
Appling was one of our biggest misses on the list last year at No. 6 overall. He hit some big shots as a junior (most notably to help beat Kansas and Wisconsin) and made moderate statistical improvements but it never all clicked. Appling was supposed to go from good to great as a junior and it just didn’t happen. Playing the point guard position full time never quite worked out for Appling, who saw his efficiency regress in his junior season. His three-point shot is still wildly inconsistent (he went 5-of-36 from long range over a seven game stretch last season) and his assist numbers don’t rank favorably against top passing guards.
Michigan State returns more talent than any other team in the league but Appling is the player that will determine the Spartans’ fate. Can he finally master the point guard position and help Gary Harris and Adreian Payne flourish or will he be stuck in neutral for his final season?
12. Noah Vonleh, Indiana (6-foot-10, forward, freshman)
Vonleh is the highest rated freshman on the list and the only McDonald’s All-American headed to the Big Ten this season. He just had his 18th birthday in late August and is very young for his class, a sure sign that his best days are ahead of him. His measurables are off the charts. He measured in at 6-foot-9.75 inches tall (with shoes), 242 pounds with a 7-foot-4 inch wingspan at the Nike Hoop Summit this spring. Already earning significant NBA draft buzz, Vonleh will be expected to make an early impact for an Indiana team that lost its top four scorers from a season ago. Vonleh’s size and versatility should give Tom Crean lineup flexibility and his length and rebounding ability should translate immediately to the Big Ten level.
11. LaQuinton Ross, Ohio State (6-foot-8, forward, senior)
16.9 mpg, 8.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, .5 apg, .3 spg, 54.2 eFG percentage
We put Ross on the list last year and he didn’t live up to the hype. He had an improved season but still played just 15 minutes and scored six points per game in Big Ten play. But Ross had a tremendous NCAA tournament, averaging just shy of 18 points per game while helping Ohio State to the Elite Eight, and appears ready to take the next step. We might look silly once again by giving him a double-digit boost in the rankings after playing just 17 minutes per game last season but Ross should finally shine this season with Deshaun Thomas out of the picture. Ross turned the ball over a bit too much last year (23% of his possessions) but he’s a complete scorer at 6-foot-8. He shot a solid 52 percent inside the arc and 39 percent outside the arc and he will be much more comfortable being the go-to offensive player than Aaron Craft, Shannon Scott and Sam Thompson.
10. Yogi Ferrell, Indiana (6-foot-0, guard, sophomore)
28.1 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 4.1 apg, 2.8 rpg, .8 spg, 45.3 eFG percentage
Ferrell’s freshman stats may not warrant a spot in the top ten, but his placement is based on a potential role shift and increased production as a sophomore. Ferrell started every game at point guard last season for Indiana and helped lead the Hoosiers to their first outright league championship in 20 years. His role, however, was mostly a distributor (25.7 assist rate) who was asked to fit into a team with an already established rotation. With seven players moving on from last season’s team, Ferrell, a former McDonald’s All-American, is now Indiana’s second most tenured player in terms of minutes played in Bloomington and is expected to take on a much larger offensive role. After a summer where he averaged double figures for the USA in the World University Games, look for a more confident and experienced Ferrell to make a major leap forward as a sophomore.
9. Andre Hollins, Minnesota (6-foot-1, guard, junior)
30.1 mpg, 14.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.4 apg, 1.1 spg, 52.7 eFG percentage
If first-year head coach Richard Pitino has any chance of keeping the Golden Gophers out of the bottom third of the Big Ten standings, he’ll need Hollins to build on a terrific sophomore campaign. Offensively, there wasn’t much that Hollins didn’t do well last season. He shot nearly 42 percent on 3-pointers, drew 4.5 fouls per 40 minutes, posted an assist rate of 25.3 percent and among Big Ten players that used at least 25 percent of their team’s possessions, his offensive rating ranked below only two players: Trey Burke and Cody Zeller. With Trevor Mbakwe and Rodney Williams moving on, the Golden Gophers are likely to become more perimeter oriented in 2013-2014 and Hollins will be the clear cut go-to guy in Minneapolis.
8. Aaron White, Iowa (6-foot-9, forward, junior)
29.2 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.1 spg, 49.3 eFG percentage
White’s name doesn’t come up much nationally, but he’s quietly built a reputation as one of the Big Ten’s best frontcourt players over his first two seasons in Iowa City. As a sophomore, he got to the free throw line at a ridiculous clip as he attempted 258 shots from the line and had a free throw rate of 86.3, the best of any Big Ten player. He was also one of just four Big Ten players to average at least 12.8 points and 6.2 rebounds, joining Zeller, Victor Oladipo and Deshaun Thomas. White shot close to 54 percent on 2-point field goals and was in the top 20 in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage. The next step in his development is improving his perimeter game. White took nearly two 3-pointers per game last season, but hit just 22.7 percent. Iowa finally looks poised to return to the NCAA tournament this season and White is a centerpiece of Iowa’s resurgence under Fran McCaffery.
7. Tim Frazier, Penn State (6-foot-1, guard, redshirt senior)
32.5 mpg, 16.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.3 spg, 38.1 eFG percentage (4 GP)
Frazier had his 2012-13 campaign derailed just four games in due to a ruptured Achilles tendon and his absence was a big reason the Nittany Lions won just two Big Ten games and finished in the conference cellar. Efficiency has never been a strong suit of Frazier’s game, but his overall production earns him this position in the top ten. In his last full season, Frazier posted a ridiculous assist rate of 45.2 (second nationally) while also averaging 18.8 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.7 steals per game. Those 2.7 steals per game were good for a steal rate of 4.0, second in the Big Ten to only Aaron Craft of Ohio State for the 2011-12 season. Now surrounded by more talent like D.J. Newbill and a frontcourt with some experience under its belt, Frazier will no longer be called on to do everything for Pat Chambers.
6. Sam Dekker, Wisconsin (6-foot-7, forward, sophomore)
22.3 mpg, 9.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, .7 spg, 57.9 eFG percentage
Newcomers typically don’t see much of the floor in Madison, but Dekker was an exception as he became one of just four true freshmen to start a game under Bo Ryan. With Ryan Evans no longer an obstacle to a permanent spot in the lineup, Dekker looks poised for an All-Big Ten type of season. Dekker’s elite athleticism, motor and ability to shoot from the perimeter make him one of the more exciting players to watch in the league, which is atypical from many of the past frontcourt guys who have played at Wisconsin under Ryan. As a freshman, he shot nearly 40 percent on 3-pointers and posted an offensive rating of 116.7, the highest mark among regulars in Wisconsin’s rotation. With more minutes coming his way and a year of experience, Dekker, clearly the most talented piece on Wisconsin’s roster, looks ready to break out.
5. Glenn Robinson III, Michigan (6-foot-6, wing, sophomore)
33.6 mpg, 11 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.0 spg, 61.1 eFG percentage
Robinson could be the first players picked from the Big Ten player in next year’s NBA Draft but he is fifth on our list because so much of his NBA value is based on potential. Robinson was the 10th most efficient offensive player in the country, and most efficient player in the Big Ten last season. At times his offense came so easy that it was taken for granted. He makes the game look simple because of his raw athleticism and the smooth nature of his game, but he averaged 11 points and five rebounds per game as a freshman on a team that made the Final Four. He did have the luxury of the nation’s best point guard setting him up and the majority of his production came from residual action. Two-thirds of his made field goals were assisted but Robinson still deserves credit for finishing whatever opportunities were presented to him.
Trey Burke is gone this season which means Robinson will have to prove that he can create his own offense. John Beilein emphasizes that it will be important for his future lottery pick to learn the difference between “running a play and being a player”. His list for off-season improvements starts with improving his 3-point consistency (just 31 percent in Big Ten games) and developing a dribble-drive game from the wing.
4. Adreian Payne, Michigan State (6-foot-11, big, senior)
25.6 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.3 bpg, .8 spg, 57.8 eFG percentage
Payne has always had length, athleticism and talent. That much has been obvious since high school when he was rated as a consensus top-30 recruit. But every prospect develops at a different rate and Payne has taken the gradual route to success. He didn’t set the world on fire as a freshman, averaging 2.5 points and 2.3 rebounds per game, but year-by-year he’s added to his game and his production has increased. After opting to return to school this season, he should have a chance to prove himself as a potential first round pick.
Payne is the best defensive rebounder returning in the Big Ten and has always been a good defender (although his block percentage dropped from 6.9 to 5.6 last season). But his offensive production hit overdrive last season as he extended his range on his jumpshot (38 percent on 3-point field goals) and finished an impressive 58% of his shots inside the arc. Payne averaged 11.2 points and 7.4 rebounds per game in Big Ten play, hitting 46% of his 3-point attempts and posting the seventh best offensive rating in the league. Derrick Nix was a great complement for Payne’s game down low but his graduation means that Payne should see more playing time and opportunity as long as he can keep his fouling under control and continue to improve his oft-questioned conditioning.
3. Aaron Craft, Ohio State (6-foot-2, guard, senior)
34.1 mpg, 10.0 ppg, 4.6 apg, 3.6 rpg, 2.2 spg, 46.1 eFG percentage
Craft is back in the top five again of this year’s list after a productive junior season where he was one of the Big Ten’s most complete players. His steal percentage (3.8) was down from his sophomore season, but was still good enough for third in the Big Ten. Harassing ball handlers is the bread and butter of Craft’s game defensively and there are few in the country that do it better. With an increased offensive role last season due to the loss of Jared Sullinger and William Buford, Craft’s efficiency took a bit of a dip as he was asked to do more. He still connected on close to 47 percent of his 2-point field goals and his assist rate of 26.1 was good for seventh among Big Ten players. He was also better with the ball as he posted a turnover percentage of 18.2, a career best.
With Deshaun Thomas moving on to the NBA, Craft is the leading returning scorer in Columbus, but the Buckeyes are probably best served with him acting as a facilitator rather than asking him to shoulder even more of an offensive load.
2. Mitch McGary, Michigan (6-foot-10, big, sophomore)
19.7 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.1 spg, .7 bpg, 59.8 eFG percentage
While he only averaged a modest 7.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game last season, Mitch McGary was a different player in the NCAA tournament. McGary averaged a double-double in six NCAA tournament games at 14.3 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. He resembled the player that scouts and coaches saw on the AAU circuit when his ranking rose to No. 2 in the country. He used his massive frame to dominate the glass on both ends of the floor but still showed his unique offensive skillset, starting fast breaks, busting Syracuse’s 2-3 zone and dominating games. Michigan had some disappointing moments down the stretch in the regular season last year but McGary’s transformation rescued the Wolverines’ season and carried them to the Final Four.
His stock was soaring in NBA Draft circles but by opting to return to school, McGary will have an opportunity to prove his consistency over the course of an entire season. His rebounding should be a given. The 6-foot-10 big man had 10th best offensive rebounding percentage in the country last season is the second best returning defensive rebounder in the league. But if he’s going to make a run at Big Ten Player of the Year honors he’s going to have to produce offensively as the focal point of Michigan’s offense, just as he did in the NCAA tournament.
1. Gary Harris, Michigan State (6-foot-4, guard, sophomore)
29.7 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 55.5 eFG percentage
Despite battling a nagging shoulder injury for a majority of the season, Harris was the Big Ten’s best freshman last season and arguably the best two guard in the league besides Victor Oladipo. In conference games, he scored 13.7 points per game, shot 47.2 percent on 3-pointers, hit close to 77 percent of his free throws and averaged 1.6 steals per game. Michigan State was the third best defensive team in the Big Ten and the presence of Harris, along with Keith Appling, was a primary reason. Assuming he is 100 percent healthy for his sophomore season (he’s currently recovering from an ankle sprain), he should blossom into the go-to scorer for Michigan State and continue to establish himself as one of the Big Ten’s best defensive players.
This quote from Tom Izzo at the conclusion of last season might best sum up the expectations for Harris this season: “I mean, you have not seen the Gary Harris I recruited yet. Now, he performed better, in some ways, than I thought he would as a freshman. But as far as the aggressive, take it to the hole, go get a rebound, we haven’t seen that yet. And it’s been because of that (injury) all season.”
