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Black holes in the draft (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
We see them every year and they typically are areas we look back at and can't find a solid pick for an entire round or two. I have a few spots so far in the 1st 10 rounds of most drafts that I am finding what I call black holes. Entire blocks of bad picks based on erroneous ADP stuff that people get int heir heads and say "I gotta take this guy here".

My 1st black hole of sorts is actually pretty early in the draft. The end of the 1st round in a 12 teamer is getting harder and harder. By the time you pick at 12 typically 5-6 top RBs are off the board and possibly the top5 at WR if your league has a bunch of sharpies. It's tough to bite down and go WR/WR at that point. I have seen folks go RB/RB there with some combo of DMC/Mendy/MJD...not a huge fan of this because you are locked in to go WR/WR on the 3/4 turn however there has been a ton of value falling on that spot so it's not the end of the world.

Next is the 2/3 turn. I'm not a fan of the WR/WR turn that so many do and grab 2 guys like DJax/M.Wallace which to me has the potential to explode one week and explode in your hands on others. I like DeSean but he gets extra points for his returns and I don't normally get those points in my leagues so I think he is a bit overvalued for 47 receptions last year. Just a tough spot and I almost lean QB/TE on this turn as you lock up 2 positions and set yourself up for a 4/5 and 6/7 run of WRs.

3rd/4th/5th rounds there is a lot of value. There is a group of RBs that go in the 5th/6th and 7th rounds that I find hard to rate and they include Moreno, Lynch, Mathews, Grant, D.Thomas...I like Grant of that bunch as you can find him mid 6th to sometimes the early 8th if no one else is paying attention to him.

WRs become a real crapshoot after about 15-18 are off the board. That 21-40 range gets kind of dicey and I put up another thread with about 5 WRs all in the same range, you get the idea. Guys are loading up in here and I find there to be a few gems in no particular order...Santana Moss, Chad OchoJohnson, Mario Manningham(I'm scooping him up in every league even if I need to reach a round b4), Lance Moore, while guys like Harvin, Rice, and Boldin I am just kind of meh on.

QBs...There are some steals IMO like Eli Manning who gets no love and just posts 4,000/30 TD and has 2 explosive WRs to air it out with. I would say there are at least 10-12 QBs you can live with but I also think a couple are obviously ahead of the rest. I think brady is a shoe in to torch the league for 35-40 TDs. That's about 2-3 TD a week, seems easy with what he has around him right now.

Any particular rounds you all are finding it difficult to get behind whatever the going players are at that spot?

 
I am finding that 12th spot to be mind numbing in figuring out what exactly to grab in the early rounds. So I see your point on the "Black Hole" Whatever you do, you are setting yourself up for the next two rounds. Even that becomes a large question mark as you balance value with need. One thing I am finding out through countless mocks, going with any combo that doesn't include at least one RB, can become ugly.

For example, I may end up with a Roddy/Fitz or QB/WR combo that looks like a fantastic way to start your draft. However, you absolutely have to get two rb's on the next turn or you are asking for trouble. And even then, who is available on that turn? Would you feel comfortable with Best/Greene/Grant/Jones/Mathews as your #1 and #2 RBs? Drafting like this leaves me feeling empty for some reason. I guess it isn't terrible, but I find going RB/WR or even RB/RB leaves my final team looking a bit more solid all around due to the depth at WR this year and the late round value at QB. The main problem with going RB/RB is leaving Roddy or CJ on the board as one or both could be available.

The larger problem with the 12th spot is the 3/4 turn. You can ignore what you did in the first 2 rounds and just grab best available, or you have to secure the positions you left vacant with your first two picks. Lets say you grab McFadden and Gore through the first two. What is the right road to take? A top TE/QB combo or go right after the next best available WRs? I find going TE/WR here to be the right move unless a top QB is still there.

Ultimately I am finding this spot to be the roughest in all of my drafts this year.

 
I am finding that 12th spot to be mind numbing in figuring out what exactly to grab in the early rounds. So I see your point on the "Black Hole" Whatever you do, you are setting yourself up for the next two rounds. Even that becomes a large question mark as you balance value with need. One thing I am finding out through countless mocks, going with any combo that doesn't include at least one RB, can become ugly. For example, I may end up with a Roddy/Fitz or QB/WR combo that looks like a fantastic way to start your draft. However, you absolutely have to get two rb's on the next turn or you are asking for trouble. And even then, who is available on that turn? Would you feel comfortable with Best/Greene/Grant/Jones/Mathews as your #1 and #2 RBs? Drafting like this leaves me feeling empty for some reason. I guess it isn't terrible, but I find going RB/WR or even RB/RB leaves my final team looking a bit more solid all around due to the depth at WR this year and the late round value at QB. The main problem with going RB/RB is leaving Roddy or CJ on the board as one or both could be available.The larger problem with the 12th spot is the 3/4 turn. You can ignore what you did in the first 2 rounds and just grab best available, or you have to secure the positions you left vacant with your first two picks. Lets say you grab McFadden and Gore through the first two. What is the right road to take? A top TE/QB combo or go right after the next best available WRs? I find going TE/WR here to be the right move unless a top QB is still there. Ultimately I am finding this spot to be the roughest in all of my drafts this year.
I'm having the same exact problem with the 11th spot which I think is even worse than the 12th. I don't know which guy to take first out of the these guys who will be available to me if the first round goes as you say: CJ, DMC, MJD, Fitz, Mendy, Brady. I've always been a fan of taking 2 RBs but if I take two here but the risk seems greater this year.Those above guys more often than not I'll have to choose from between the first and 2nd round and the reason I say the 11th is harder to pick from the 12th spot is because you only get one shot before the guy at the 12th spot takes 2 picks. So you can't anticipate how he'll draft in that first round based on need to take advantage of the pick right after his.Qbs go so fast in my draft I'm tempted to draft Brady in the first which is something I never do but if I don't snag him there he more than likely won't be there in the 2nd round for me. If I go QB/RB...then I'll miss out on a stud WR.....11th is damn ugly man.
 
The 9th and 10th spot has been my toughest draft spot so far. At least at 11 you can usually predict what the guy on the end is going to do. I did a ffpc draftmasters from the 10th spot last night and started with McFadden/Fitz. Vick fell to 3.10 so I grabbed him there and at 4.03 took Ingram.

The 6th, 7th, and 8th rounds were probably the black holes for me I took Harvin at 6.10, Winslow at 7.03, and JStew at 8.03. I'm not thrilled with any of them but they seemed like the right choices. No one blew me away in those rounds that's for sure. At 9.10 I got McGahee who I was pretty happy to take there. The 10th presented another black hole for me. I decided to just go ahead and grab Bush to pair with McFadden because again, no one stood out to me.

If you care, here's how the rest of the team ended up:

draftmasters

 
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First of all I have always felt that in the first half of the draft you take the BPA - guys who can really carry your team.

But at the end of the first round you have no shortage of good choices but I really think you want to start RB/WR or WR/RB depending on who you like. The problem with taking two RB or two WR there is not a lack of talent on the 3/4 turn but the psychological problem of feeling you "have to" draft one or two of the position you missed....if you are 1/1 you can more easily take the BPA with your pick in the third and then have lots of choices positionally for your fourth round player. I might draft a TE there if Witten or Finley was there in a PPR/TE league but I think I see better teams when people wait on their quarterbacks until later in the draft.

 
QBs...There are some steals IMO like Eli Manning who gets no love and just posts 4,000/30 TD and has 2 explosive WRs to air it out with. I would say there are at least 10-12 QBs you can live with but I also think a couple are obviously ahead of the rest. I think brady is a shoe in to torch the league for 35-40 TDs. That's about 2-3 TD a week, seems easy with what he has around him right now. Any particular rounds you all are finding it difficult to get behind whatever the going players are at that spot?
People who keep pimping Eli do not get it. He had 25 ints last year. With Steve Smith gone, he could very well get the same again this year. When you play in a league that gives you -2 for ints, 4000 & 30 TDs means squat when Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers etc are throwing <10 ints. It is not about the final yards and TDs only....it is about week to week scoring. When Eli is throwing >1 int a game, you are getting penalized every time for it. And you lose games because of it. And Eli is not suddenly becoming an accurate QB.He sucks at completion %s for a reason. He is an over-rated QB who won one fluke SB thanks to the biggest fluke catch in the history of football and a very good D.
 
I recently drafted from the 12 spot. I didn't see it as a black hole at all. I expected to take 2 top shelf WR's. But in this league, they went early. So I changed my focus and switched to RB-QB. The rest of the draft had so many picks that just fell. Guys I had as 4th rounders falling to the 6th and etc.

Disagree with your black hole theory.

 
I have a few spots so far in the 1st 10 rounds of most drafts that I am finding what I call black holes.
I guess this could happen if you're using a cheat sheet made by someone else. But if you take the time to type up your own list, even just the top 100, there should be no surprises. Organize them by your own tiers and determine in which rounds you feel comfortable drafting them.I like to have ADP listed beside the players for at least my top 50, but that's only a guess as to when other owners might draft that player. If I really want that player I will take them a round or two earlier without even blinking.

 
I have a few spots so far in the 1st 10 rounds of most drafts that I am finding what I call black holes.
I guess this could happen if you're using a cheat sheet made by someone else. But if you take the time to type up your own list, even just the top 100, there should be no surprises. Organize them by your own tiers and determine in which rounds you feel comfortable drafting them.I like to have ADP listed beside the players for at least my top 50, but that's only a guess as to when other owners might draft that player. If I really want that player I will take them a round or two earlier without even blinking.
:lmao: Yeah MoP, if you just learned to stop being such a noob you wouldn't have these problems.

 
:lmao:

Yeah MoP, if you just learned to stop being such a noob you wouldn't have these problems.
I've been around here for a couple of years and I know MoP isn't a noob.But my point remains. If you find yourself saying "I don't want to draft any guys out of this group at the turn of Round 3/4", and you've put together your own draft list, then you've done something wrong. You should have players listed in the order that you'd be willing to take them. Why have a player listed at #36 overall if personally you wouldn't even think about drafting them until Round 5?

 
We see them every year and they typically are areas we look back at and can't find a solid pick for an entire round or two. I have a few spots so far in the 1st 10 rounds of most drafts that I am finding what I call black holes. Entire blocks of bad picks based on erroneous ADP stuff that people get int heir heads and say "I gotta take this guy here".My 1st black hole of sorts is actually pretty early in the draft. The end of the 1st round in a 12 teamer is getting harder and harder. By the time you pick at 12 typically 5-6 top RBs are off the board and possibly the top5 at WR if your league has a bunch of sharpies. It's tough to bite down and go WR/WR at that point. I have seen folks go RB/RB there with some combo of DMC/Mendy/MJD...not a huge fan of this because you are locked in to go WR/WR on the 3/4 turn however there has been a ton of value falling on that spot so it's not the end of the world.
A black hole if your preffered strategy is taking rb/rb. Otherwise owners adept to selecting WRs or QBs early aren't breaking a sweat.
Next is the 2/3 turn. I'm not a fan of the WR/WR turn that so many do and grab 2 guys like DJax/M.Wallace which to me has the potential to explode one week and explode in your hands on others. I like DeSean but he gets extra points for his returns and I don't normally get those points in my leagues so I think he is a bit overvalued for 47 receptions last year. Just a tough spot and I almost lean QB/TE on this turn as you lock up 2 positions and set yourself up for a 4/5 and 6/7 run of WRs.
Taking D-Jax/Mike Wallace doesn't bring me the same comfort as Reggie Wayne/Mike Wallace or Miles Austin/Mike Wallace or Greg Jenning/Mike Wallace or Vincent Jackson/Mike Wallace. Which is possible at the 2/3 turn depending on your position. Desean is the weak link in your equation for my preference. I would be grateful with any wrwr combo involving:wr1: VJ, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Nicks. Or pair any of the other top 5 wrs from round1 with these wrs. And take advantage of the rb value you mention in round 3-6. wr2: Mike Wallace, Austin, Welker(ppr)and Mike Williams. I prefer at least 1 rb before these WRs Bowe, Dez Bryant, Brandon Lloyd. Another section which I don't see as a black hole per say. But I see where you are coming from.
3rd/4th/5th rounds there is a lot of value. There is a group of RBs that go in the 5th/6th and 7th rounds that I find hard to rate and they include Moreno, Lynch, Mathews, Grant, D.Thomas...I like Grant of that bunch as you can find him mid 6th to sometimes the early 8th if no one else is paying attention to him.
Agreed. The loss of Leshoure and Ryan Williams has hurt this rb value pool.
WRs become a real crapshoot after about 15-18 are off the board. That 21-40 range gets kind of dicey and I put up another thread with about 5 WRs all in the same range, you get the idea. Guys are loading up in here and I find there to be a few gems in no particular order...Santana Moss, Chad OchoJohnson, Mario Manningham(I'm scooping him up in every league even if I need to reach a round b4), Lance Moore, while guys like Harvin, Rice, and Boldin I am just kind of meh on.
I agree 200% with this statement. Maybe wr20-40 is my weakness. However you cut it....MID ROUND WRS IS MY BLACKHOLE. I don't like any of these low floor wideouts. Which is why I take elite wrs early and use the mid round rb value to my advantage. I have tried and tried to make the best of this pool of wrs. And i can't find the appropriate mix of wrs to keep me confident. Without relying on in-season free agency to bolster the unit. There are a few wrs I do like. But many other owners are keen to the same mid round gems. Moss, 85, manningham, maclin, julio jones, AJ and lance moore. I am with you. I believe he is the wr to own. Not meachum.
Any particular rounds you all are finding it difficult to get behind whatever the going players are at that spot?
WRs from round 6-round 11 is my one and only blackhole. Otherwise I believe I can value at all other positions.
 
We see them every year and they typically are areas we look back at and can't find a solid pick for an entire round or two. I have a few spots so far in the 1st 10 rounds of most drafts that I am finding what I call black holes. Entire blocks of bad picks based on erroneous ADP stuff that people get int heir heads and say "I gotta take this guy here".My 1st black hole of sorts is actually pretty early in the draft. The end of the 1st round in a 12 teamer is getting harder and harder. By the time you pick at 12 typically 5-6 top RBs are off the board and possibly the top5 at WR if your league has a bunch of sharpies. It's tough to bite down and go WR/WR at that point. I have seen folks go RB/RB there with some combo of DMC/Mendy/MJD...not a huge fan of this because you are locked in to go WR/WR on the 3/4 turn however there has been a ton of value falling on that spot so it's not the end of the world. Next is the 2/3 turn. I'm not a fan of the WR/WR turn that so many do and grab 2 guys like DJax/M.Wallace which to me has the potential to explode one week and explode in your hands on others. I like DeSean but he gets extra points for his returns and I don't normally get those points in my leagues so I think he is a bit overvalued for 47 receptions last year. Just a tough spot and I almost lean QB/TE on this turn as you lock up 2 positions and set yourself up for a 4/5 and 6/7 run of WRs. 3rd/4th/5th rounds there is a lot of value. There is a group of RBs that go in the 5th/6th and 7th rounds that I find hard to rate and they include Moreno, Lynch, Mathews, Grant, D.Thomas...I like Grant of that bunch as you can find him mid 6th to sometimes the early 8th if no one else is paying attention to him. WRs become a real crapshoot after about 15-18 are off the board. That 21-40 range gets kind of dicey and I put up another thread with about 5 WRs all in the same range, you get the idea. Guys are loading up in here and I find there to be a few gems in no particular order...Santana Moss, Chad OchoJohnson, Mario Manningham(I'm scooping him up in every league even if I need to reach a round b4), Lance Moore, while guys like Harvin, Rice, and Boldin I am just kind of meh on. QBs...There are some steals IMO like Eli Manning who gets no love and just posts 4,000/30 TD and has 2 explosive WRs to air it out with. I would say there are at least 10-12 QBs you can live with but I also think a couple are obviously ahead of the rest. I think brady is a shoe in to torch the league for 35-40 TDs. That's about 2-3 TD a week, seems easy with what he has around him right now. Any particular rounds you all are finding it difficult to get behind whatever the going players are at that spot?
I just did a 10 team PPR from slot 9. I know you're in a 12 teamer, but after about round 10 in 10 team format things get ugly for about two rounds. In many cases this year I've skipped the top 7 TEs and I usually fill out my TE committee here with like Gronk/Cook or Olsen/Kendricks, or your TE flavor of the week. Some of these guys will pop. Other than that, I swing for the fences in these rounds taking your Ben Tates, Spillers, Rashad Jennings', Javon Ringers, Kendall Hunters, Jacoby Fords, Burlesons, Denarius Moores, Delone Carters, B. Powells etc. I'm so averse to just taking fantasy dead weight in these late rounds. All my selections thru this area tends to be for home run swing upside.
 
First and foremost, great post that inspires some good discussion.

Have you considered going WR with a QB on the turn and coming back with a valued QB and a RB or TE on the turn? From there go RB/RB and fish for potential gems at WR and even another tradable QB after the sixth round. Depending on scoring a top tier QB may have a very good running back coming back to you in a trade early on in the season. I'm not saying it's perfect but it may be something to consider.

 
I maintain the early selections 1-3 or 1-4...when you come back on the 2/3 turn I think it's best to split them up. I am not a fan of the WR/WR combo. I am a fan of the WR/WR on the 4/5 turn based on what is there. You might reach slightly for your RB2 but it makes the rest of the draft flow a lot better and you can usually find a decent RB3 on the 6/7 turn. Just my advice based on drafting in the 2 and the 4 slot a half dozen times so far.

 
We see them every year and they typically are areas we look back at and can't find a solid pick for an entire round or two. I have a few spots so far in the 1st 10 rounds of most drafts that I am finding what I call black holes. Entire blocks of bad picks based on erroneous ADP stuff that people get int heir heads and say "I gotta take this guy here".My 1st black hole of sorts is actually pretty early in the draft. The end of the 1st round in a 12 teamer is getting harder and harder. By the time you pick at 12 typically 5-6 top RBs are off the board and possibly the top5 at WR if your league has a bunch of sharpies. It's tough to bite down and go WR/WR at that point. I have seen folks go RB/RB there with some combo of DMC/Mendy/MJD...not a huge fan of this because you are locked in to go WR/WR on the 3/4 turn however there has been a ton of value falling on that spot so it's not the end of the world. Next is the 2/3 turn. I'm not a fan of the WR/WR turn that so many do and grab 2 guys like DJax/M.Wallace which to me has the potential to explode one week and explode in your hands on others. I like DeSean but he gets extra points for his returns and I don't normally get those points in my leagues so I think he is a bit overvalued for 47 receptions last year. Just a tough spot and I almost lean QB/TE on this turn as you lock up 2 positions and set yourself up for a 4/5 and 6/7 run of WRs. 3rd/4th/5th rounds there is a lot of value. There is a group of RBs that go in the 5th/6th and 7th rounds that I find hard to rate and they include Moreno, Lynch, Mathews, Grant, D.Thomas...I like Grant of that bunch as you can find him mid 6th to sometimes the early 8th if no one else is paying attention to him. WRs become a real crapshoot after about 15-18 are off the board. That 21-40 range gets kind of dicey and I put up another thread with about 5 WRs all in the same range, you get the idea. Guys are loading up in here and I find there to be a few gems in no particular order...Santana Moss, Chad OchoJohnson, Mario Manningham(I'm scooping him up in every league even if I need to reach a round b4), Lance Moore, while guys like Harvin, Rice, and Boldin I am just kind of meh on. QBs...There are some steals IMO like Eli Manning who gets no love and just posts 4,000/30 TD and has 2 explosive WRs to air it out with. I would say there are at least 10-12 QBs you can live with but I also think a couple are obviously ahead of the rest. I think brady is a shoe in to torch the league for 35-40 TDs. That's about 2-3 TD a week, seems easy with what he has around him right now. Any particular rounds you all are finding it difficult to get behind whatever the going players are at that spot?
I just did a 10 team PPR from slot 9. I know you're in a 12 teamer, but after about round 10 in 10 team format things get ugly for about two rounds. In many cases this year I've skipped the top 7 TEs and I usually fill out my TE committee here with like Gronk/Cook or Olsen/Kendricks, or your TE flavor of the week. Some of these guys will pop. Other than that, I swing for the fences in these rounds taking your Ben Tates, Spillers, Rashad Jennings', Javon Ringers, Kendall Hunters, Jacoby Fords, Burlesons, Denarius Moores, Delone Carters, B. Powells etc. I'm so averse to just taking fantasy dead weight in these late rounds. All my selections thru this area tends to be for home run swing upside.
:thumbsup:
 
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Hawks don't worry about black holes, they create them. If you don't like the value at your pick, skip it.

 
I am finding that 12th spot to be mind numbing in figuring out what exactly to grab in the early rounds. So I see your point on the "Black Hole" Whatever you do, you are setting yourself up for the next two rounds. Even that becomes a large question mark as you balance value with need. One thing I am finding out through countless mocks, going with any combo that doesn't include at least one RB, can become ugly. For example, I may end up with a Roddy/Fitz or QB/WR combo that looks like a fantastic way to start your draft. However, you absolutely have to get two rb's on the next turn or you are asking for trouble. And even then, who is available on that turn? Would you feel comfortable with Best/Greene/Grant/Jones/Mathews as your #1 and #2 RBs? Drafting like this leaves me feeling empty for some reason. I guess it isn't terrible, but I find going RB/WR or even RB/RB leaves my final team looking a bit more solid all around due to the depth at WR this year and the late round value at QB. The main problem with going RB/RB is leaving Roddy or CJ on the board as one or both could be available.The larger problem with the 12th spot is the 3/4 turn. You can ignore what you did in the first 2 rounds and just grab best available, or you have to secure the positions you left vacant with your first two picks. Lets say you grab McFadden and Gore through the first two. What is the right road to take? A top TE/QB combo or go right after the next best available WRs? I find going TE/WR here to be the right move unless a top QB is still there. Ultimately I am finding this spot to be the roughest in all of my drafts this year.
I'm having the same exact problem with the 11th spot which I think is even worse than the 12th. I don't know which guy to take first out of the these guys who will be available to me if the first round goes as you say: CJ, DMC, MJD, Fitz, Mendy, Brady. I've always been a fan of taking 2 RBs but if I take two here but the risk seems greater this year.Those above guys more often than not I'll have to choose from between the first and 2nd round and the reason I say the 11th is harder to pick from the 12th spot is because you only get one shot before the guy at the 12th spot takes 2 picks. So you can't anticipate how he'll draft in that first round based on need to take advantage of the pick right after his.Qbs go so fast in my draft I'm tempted to draft Brady in the first which is something I never do but if I don't snag him there he more than likely won't be there in the 2nd round for me. If I go QB/RB...then I'll miss out on a stud WR.....11th is damn ugly man.
FWIW, in a 12 team redraft where QBs get 6 pts/any TD & -2 pts/Int, I took Brady from the 11th spot, then Calvin on the comeback in the 2nd. I didn't feel great about it, but my mindset was to get two "sure things" in the first 2 Rds. Of course my RB stable leaves much to be desired (Greene/DWill/Beanie/Addai/McGahee), but felt I didn't really have much of a choice. I also didn't wanna let someone w/ a stud RB follow suit w/ a top 5 QB &/or a top WR. I felt your pain, but I just went w/ my plan to get sure-thing, impact guys in the first 2 Rds.
 
Personally, I think the 2/3 turn for guys that draft #1 overall in a 12 teamer is tough. I have 5 stud WRs, then a small second tier of 3 WRSs(VJax, Wallace, Jennings), then a dropoff to the next 10-11 which are very similar, then it becomes more of a crapshoot like what MOP says. I think that there are 13 solid backs in PPR then a big dropoff to my #14 back. In a shark league, it's likely that you will have the top 8 WRs off the board and the top 13 RBs, as well as Rodgers and Vick. Now what do you do?

I just did a draft where I was in the 2 hole in a 12 teamer, took Rice at 1.02. Then, as I expected, my top 8 WRs, 12 RBs, Rodgers and Vick were all off the board when it was my turn again. I scooped up my last RB in my top 13 (Hillis). IMO there was just no value at the WR position or the RB position with the 3.02....I thought that I can get a similar RB or WR in the next round. So I swallowed hard, went against the grain, and took Tom Brady with the 3.02 pick. (We get 5 pts per TD pass and 1 pt per 20 yards passing, so Brady is pretty valuable). Got lucky and snagged Santonio Holmes at 4.11 (which was one of the 10 3rd tier WRs) and Mark Ingram at 5.2.

 
I've been around here for a couple of years and I know MoP isn't a noob.

But my point remains. If you find yourself saying "I don't want to draft any guys out of this group at the turn of Round 3/4", and you've put together your own draft list, then you've done something wrong. You should have players listed in the order that you'd be willing to take them. Why have a player listed at #36 overall if personally you wouldn't even think about drafting them until Round 5?
At first, I was going to agree here. But I think I fall more on MOP's side, although I fall on the other side as well.I do my own projections and tiers. Every. Single. Year. But I too typically experience these "black holes" that MOP mentions, and here is why:

Your tiers all end at certain points (or they wouldn't be tiers, would they?) and then begin after a drop off. For instance, when your 5 man tier 3 is up, you may have a 12 man tier 4. That is where you usually go to another position with a higher ier left.

However, when multiple tiers hit that spot at once, THAT is the "black hole". If I see the next 8 WRs and 8 RBs and 5 QBs and 5 TEs as all being on the same level...then it is a "black hole." You don't really want to draft any one of them more than another because YOUR tiers say they're all the same.

 
Personally, I think the 2/3 turn for guys that draft #1 overall in a 12 teamer is tough. I have 5 stud WRs, then a small second tier of 3 WRSs(VJax, Wallace, Jennings), then a dropoff to the next 10-11 which are very similar, then it becomes more of a crapshoot like what MOP says. I think that there are 13 solid backs in PPR then a big dropoff to my #14 back. In a shark league, it's likely that you will have the top 8 WRs off the board and the top 13 RBs, as well as Rodgers and Vick. Now what do you do?I just did a draft where I was in the 2 hole in a 12 teamer, took Rice at 1.02. Then, as I expected, my top 8 WRs, 12 RBs, Rodgers and Vick were all off the board when it was my turn again. I scooped up my last RB in my top 13 (Hillis). IMO there was just no value at the WR position or the RB position with the 3.02....I thought that I can get a similar RB or WR in the next round. So I swallowed hard, went against the grain, and took Tom Brady with the 3.02 pick. (We get 5 pts per TD pass and 1 pt per 20 yards passing, so Brady is pretty valuable). Got lucky and snagged Santonio Holmes at 4.11 (which was one of the 10 3rd tier WRs) and Mark Ingram at 5.2.
I love the Hillis Brady scoop on the 2/3 turn. You can find 2 nice WRs on the 4/5 turn, much harder to fill up the other spots. Well done my friend.
 
We see them every year and they typically are areas we look back at and can't find a solid pick for an entire round or two. I have a few spots so far in the 1st 10 rounds of most drafts that I am finding what I call black holes. Entire blocks of bad picks based on erroneous ADP stuff that people get int heir heads and say "I gotta take this guy here".

My 1st black hole of sorts is actually pretty early in the draft. The end of the 1st round in a 12 teamer is getting harder and harder. By the time you pick at 12 typically 5-6 top RBs are off the board and possibly the top5 at WR if your league has a bunch of sharpies. It's tough to bite down and go WR/WR at that point. I have seen folks go RB/RB there with some combo of DMC/Mendy/MJD...not a huge fan of this because you are locked in to go WR/WR on the 3/4 turn however there has been a ton of value falling on that spot so it's not the end of the world.

Next is the 2/3 turn. I'm not a fan of the WR/WR turn that so many do and grab 2 guys like DJax/M.Wallace which to me has the potential to explode one week and explode in your hands on others. I like DeSean but he gets extra points for his returns and I don't normally get those points in my leagues so I think he is a bit overvalued for 47 receptions last year. Just a tough spot and I almost lean QB/TE on this turn as you lock up 2 positions and set yourself up for a 4/5 and 6/7 run of WRs.

3rd/4th/5th rounds there is a lot of value. There is a group of RBs that go in the 5th/6th and 7th rounds that I find hard to rate and they include Moreno, Lynch, Mathews, Grant, D.Thomas...I like Grant of that bunch as you can find him mid 6th to sometimes the early 8th if no one else is paying attention to him.

WRs become a real crapshoot after about 15-18 are off the board. That 21-40 range gets kind of dicey and I put up another thread with about 5 WRs all in the same range, you get the idea. Guys are loading up in here and I find there to be a few gems in no particular order...Santana Moss, Chad OchoJohnson, Mario Manningham(I'm scooping him up in every league even if I need to reach a round b4), Lance Moore, while guys like Harvin, Rice, and Boldin I am just kind of meh on.

QBs...There are some steals IMO like Eli Manning who gets no love and just posts 4,000/30 TD and has 2 explosive WRs to air it out with. I would say there are at least 10-12 QBs you can live with but I also think a couple are obviously ahead of the rest. I think brady is a shoe in to torch the league for 35-40 TDs. That's about 2-3 TD a week, seems easy with what he has around him right now.

Any particular rounds you all are finding it difficult to get behind whatever the going players are at that spot?
This reminded me of this article:There's a Hole

 

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