Bloom 100: 1-20 (1 Viewer)

[Sigmund Bloom]

1-20

21-50 and 51-100 coming soon, just in time for the draft to blow the whole thing up...

I think mid to late firsts are going to be worth much less than in a typical year, but seconds and maybe even thirds will be worth more...

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Yes! The Bloom 100!

How is Jaquizz Rodgers different from/the same as Dexter McCluster?

 

[the turnip]

Would it be possible to post some of it here?

Articles are blocked by my firewall.

 

[dirtyhalos]

1-20

21-50 and 51-100 coming soon, just in time for the draft to blow the whole thing up...

I think mid to late firsts are going to be worth much less than in a typical year, but seconds and maybe even thirds will be worth more...

i'm taking this as being applied to 12 team leagues? so say 6-12 feel pretty week but say 16 to 24 feel stronger?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Would it be possible to post some of it here?

Articles are blocked by my firewall.

Bloom Top 20 By Sigmund Bloom

April 20th, 2011

Draft season means rookie draft season, which some of us look forward to as much playing out the regular season in our dynasty leagues. This year's draft is going to be kind to folks looking for running backs or a "future of the franchise" QB. It's thin on blue chip linebacker prospects and high ceiling receiving TEs. The Bloom 100 is back for another year to try to sort out ranking the entire for deep PPR IDP leagues and provide some food for thought for anyone evaluating the next wave of talent to enter the league.

A.J. Green, WR, Georgia - Dez Bryant without the devil on his shoulder. Green was born to be a true #1 wideout in the NFL, and lucky us to get to watch it happen, especially if he's on your fantasy team. Green is blessed with a long frame, basketball ups, with ball tracking and body control that can't be taught. It's all tied together with a flair for the dramatic, creativity and inspiration to use his gifts as trump cards, and a tenacious competitiveness punctuated with a my ball mentality. Green can dominate the air show to make the tough grab and the road race after the catch to frustrate and defeat would-be tacklers. I don't care where Green lands, he'll be in everyone's dynasty top 10 wide receivers very soon. Make offers for the 1.1 with that value in mind.

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama - Even if his career is only three years long, they will be three damned good years. Ingram has the classic NFL compact frame, conviction in every movement, and an advanced all-around game to get him atop his team's depth chart from day one. He has no physical attribute to set him apart from the pack in the NFL, but the whole of his game greatly surpasses the sum of the his tools a la Ray Rice or, yes, Emmitt Smith. In some years, he would be the slam dunk #1 pick.

Julio Jones, WR, Alabama - Consider yourself pretty lucky if you get Jones sitting at #3 - players that seem as certain to hit as he does aren't always available at #3. Anyone who gets Jones at #4 or #5 because their draft is RB-obsessed should thank their lucky stars. Jones is a big, rugged wideout who makes defensive backs look like feeble little brothers trying to cover and tackle their big brother. He's a natural hands catcher who turns into a running back in mentality and ability after the catch (with deceptive speed to boot). In St. Louis, he could put up Brandon Marshall-esque numbers very quickly and perhaps even have a credible argument for post draft #1 on this list.

Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois - Now we get to the first player with an appreciable bust risk. LeShoure has flourished in a way that has not asked him to demonstrate as much of the skills necessary to run with success in the NFL's small spaces against NFL quality defenders as Ingram and many backs rated lower than him on this list. Still, a back with his size, strength, speed, and inspired open-field game makes you drool when you think of how good things could be if last year was just a sign of things to come. He already has an NFL-ready 6'0' 230 frame and he can both run away from defenders and make them miss. He only started really taking his nutrition and conditioning seriously last year and I have no doubt that LeShoure has top uberelite top five running back upside right there with Jonathan Stewart. Plus, you have to root for a guy who was born in prison. He's not the layup that the top three picks are, but he's certainly the caliber of player you feel good about taking in the top five.

Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech - This is where the elite tier ends. If you don't have a pick in the top five, do what you must to consummate a trade up or pray someone takes a QB or other ill-advised target at #5 when you're sitting at #6. Williams, like Ingram, runs compactly with superior footwork and little wasted motion. Dare I say he has a better second gear than Ingram, and closer to sports car handling. Williams is fifth mainly because his ceiling isn't as high as LeShoure's and floor isn't as high as Ingram's. His potential reward times his high hit rate is not at all far off of the top four even though his number five ranking makes Williams seem like a consolation prize. He's not.

Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky - Big ups to our own Matt Waldman for turning me on to Cobb's game before anyone else was singing his praises quite as loudly. Cobb is one tough, slippery, fast, quick, dependable receiver. He hasn't done much in the way of mastering the pro route tree, but his skills are going to translate and his team is going to want to get the ball in his sticky hands a lot. Cobb doesn't have the physical gifts or all-around #1 wide receiver game to merit a spot in the elite tier, but he should be your target in PPR leagues if you are picking after the elite tier has dried up.

Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State - Hunter might not be drafted to be his team's future feature back, but eventually, he could be, and they will have trouble not including him in their backfield in short time. Even though Hunter's size isn't ideal, his strong, suddenness, fight and long speed more than make up for it. Hunter has the determination, burst, and instincts to excel in the NFL. Don't let his likely place outside of the top two rounds of the NFL draft scare you off of taking him in the first round of your rookie draft.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State - Rodgers turns a negative into a positive by using his diminutive stature to consistently get lower than his opponent. He runs with the same sort chip on his shoulder and leverage as Maurice Jones-Drew, generating a ton of power in his lower body. Rodgers comes with the ridiculous lateral agility you would expect from a little back, but with a bigger back's skills and mentality running inside. His size could scare teams off and the depth of this year's RB class makes it even more likely that Rodgers doesn't even go in the first 100 picks, or maybe even the first 150. I'm trying to figure out exactly when the optimal moment to trade up for Rodgers will be, because he should last a lot longer than this in most drafts.

Cam Newton, QB, Auburn - Newton's bust risk is big between shadowy character concerns, one-year wonder status, and the remote connection between the style of offense he played at Auburn and the brand offensive football played in the NFL. Still, he single-handedly propelled his team to a national championship with less than Vince Young had to work with in a supporting cast, and he is the player outside of the top five with the highest fantasy ceiling by far with his dual threat profile. Whether you take a player like Newton is mostly based on your approach to risk aversion, but if you want upside at quarterback in this year's draft, you can't beat Newton.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State - Thomas is a big, strong back with good feet and more than good enough burst for his size. He does have to run a little lower and lacks the polished multi-faceted skillset of a do-everything back, giving him more of a LeGarrette Blount career path in a best case scenario, but that's plenty good enough to merit a late-first round pick in your rookie drafts.

Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami (Fl) - Hankerson doesn't look like the kind of player with the top-end physical talent or flawless execution of a future top 20 wide receiver. He's tough and his game in the air is behind only to AJ Green and maybe Jon Baldwin in this class, but he is also prone to bouts of inconsistency. You get the feeling that he is best suited to be a #2, but a #2 on some team is worth more for fantasy than some #1s, so he could end up as high as #6 in the right spot post-draft.

Greg Little, WR, North Carolina - Little is very raw as a receiver, having only converted from running back to a full-time wideout in 2009 (and not playing in 2010 because of an NCAA violation for an inappropriate relationship with an agent), but he displays a basketball mindset ( he was on the UNC basketball team for a short stint) when the ball is in the air, and a mean aggressiveness and beast mode after the catch that is reminiscent of Boston, Marshall, and Boldin. The payoff could be huge, but he needs to mature as a person and a player to get there.

Demarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma - Murray will definitely make himself useful in the NFL. He has redefined his game to be more efficient running inside with a downhill style that is built on good balance and leg drive. His running style and all-around game remind me of Matt Forte, and with better durability in college, you could make a case that his ceiling is that high. Murray is outside of my top 10 because he suffered a few doozies in the injury department (dislocated kneecap, ruptured hamstring), so you wonder if he'll ever be the physical specimen it looked like he could turn into after a dynamic start to his career in Norman.

Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego State - Brown is a technician who should at worst earn his way to a highly-targeted third on the depth chart with his precise game (think Austin Collie). He can work the middle of the field and make a living moving the chains even though he is not a big wide receiver. Brown isn't going to make highlight reel catches or run away from defenders, but he can become a bread and butter part of a passing offense. Like Hankerson, he could move into mid-first consideration in the right offense.

Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh - Baldwin is similar to Little because he could vastly outproduce a draft stock that is deflated despite top-end ability because it comes with the need to refine a lot on and off the field. Then again, he could also never pan out because of the rawness of his game and personality. He's a big wide receiver with good enough speed and suddenness to go along with the leaping ability, timing, and body control to win most every jumpball - in other words, his game is tailor made for big plays.

Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland - Smith is at his best competing for the ball in flight, and he attacks defenders after the catch with speed and quickness. While top-end speed is there in deep routes, Smith is not explosive off the snap, and he is not a polished route runner or particularly physical receiver. If his game rounds out, Smith could become a solid #2/#3 fantasy receiver, but he could also be limited to a Devery Henderson type role if it doesn't.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame - I'm not really that down on Rudolph, it's just that the second tier in rookie drafts this year is very deep. Rudolph will go earlier than this in a lot of drafts because he stands out from the rest of the TE class. Still, he doesn't have the potential to break into the growing group of elite fantasy TEs, so I would aim higher at other positions unless you are hard up at TE and snag a development pass-catching TE with just as much fantasy upside later. Rudolph is a quality two-way TE and he has great ball skills in addition to toughness and good hands. He's one of the safest picks in the top 20, if an unexciting one.

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri - I haven't seen what others have in Gabbert. Yes, the size, arm strength, aggressiveness, and athleticism are all there, but where are the results? That adds up to a guy who will get many shots, but not necessarily one that will make good on them. Gabbert's lack of downfield accuracy scares me, and his system hasn't asked that much more of him than Newton's has of him. I don't know that his hit rate or upside is that much higher than the next three or four QBs in this draft, so I would let someone else reach for him in the late first/early second.

Edmond Gates, WR, Abilene Christian - Gates is ridiculously fast and sometimes he reminds me of Mike Wallace. I won't be surprised if his game translates in the same way, but it's hard to tell when you can only compare him to other small school players on film. His hands and ball tracking are more than good enough for him to follow a similar path as college teammate and fellow speedster Johnny Knox.

Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse - Carter is a lot like Tashard Choice in that he'll produce results when he gets a lot of touches, but you wonder if he'll ever be the most talented back on his team. He's a tough, efficient, instinctive runner, and I won't be surprised one bit if he kills it when he gets a chance to carry the load, but he just as easily could toil as a second fiddle for most or all of his career. RBBC back is probably his future, but RBBC backs still carry a decent amount of value in deep leagues.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

1-20

21-50 and 51-100 coming soon, just in time for the draft to blow the whole thing up...

I think mid to late firsts are going to be worth much less than in a typical year, but seconds and maybe even thirds will be worth more...

i'm taking this as being applied to 12 team leagues? so say 6-12 feel pretty week but say 16 to 24 feel stronger?

yeah 12 as the break point in discussion of round value

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Yes! The Bloom 100!How is Jaquizz Rodgers different from/the same as Dexter McCluster?

McCluster is more slight and thin-hipped like a WR, while Quizz is built thick and low like an RB - McCluster has better phone booth quicks, but Quizz can hang as an inside runner in the pros.

 

[dirtyhalos]

also, traditionally your 100 is an idp list as well... typically we've been seeing lbs start sneaking in the early teens... is this a fairly weak idp class? or has your value of idps relative to offense diminished some?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Yes! The Bloom 100!How is Jaquizz Rodgers different from/the same as Dexter McCluster?

McCluster is more slight and thin-hipped like a WR, while Quizz is built thick and low like an RB - McCluster has better phone booth quicks, but Quizz can hang as an inside runner in the pros.

So is there a potential he could be a poor man's Warrick Dunn type?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Awesome work, Sig, as usual.

also, traditionally your 100 is an idp list as well... typically we've been seeing lbs start sneaking in the early teens... is this a fairly weak idp class? or has your value of idps relative to offense diminished some?

Interested to hear Sig's take here, but I think it's a combination of less talent and depth among the ILB prospects and the usual issue of not knowing where players will land that's been further complicated this year by the uncertainty of what may happen with the large group of free agent linebackers (Tulloch, Ruud, etc). I'd expect one or two linebackers and maybe a defensive end to leak into the upper second round tiers on my draft board after next weekend, but there's isn't a clear candidate right now.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Yes! The Bloom 100!How is Jaquizz Rodgers different from/the same as Dexter McCluster?

McCluster is more slight and thin-hipped like a WR, while Quizz is built thick and low like an RB - McCluster has better phone booth quicks, but Quizz can hang as an inside runner in the pros.

So is there a potential he could be a poor man's Warrick Dunn type?

not-so-poor... I see some MJD -minus long speed in him. I just know that his desire and football smarts/dedication are outstanding and his style almost turns mini-stature into advantage b/c of leverage a la MJD

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

also, traditionally your 100 is an idp list as well... typically we've been seeing lbs start sneaking in the early teens... is this a fairly weak idp class? or has your value of idps relative to offense diminished some?

Weak IDP class, deep 2nd tier of offensive players, Some offensive players are going to fall farther than we expect or end up in bad situations. I expect Martez Wilson and maybe a few other LBs to end up in the top 20 post-draft

 

[Stinkin Ref]

 

[loose circuits]

Yes! The Bloom 100!How is Jaquizz Rodgers different from/the same as Dexter McCluster?

McCluster is more slight and thin-hipped like a WR, while Quizz is built thick and low like an RB - McCluster has better phone booth quicks, but Quizz can hang as an inside runner in the pros.

So is there a potential he could be a poor man's Warrick Dunn type?

not-so-poor... I see some MJD -minus long speed in him. I just know that his desire and football smarts/dedication are outstanding and his style almost turns mini-stature into advantage b/c of leverage a la MJD

Is it even close in comparison? Dunn is 5'9" 180 lbs, McCluster 5'9" 175 lbs while Rodgers is like 5'6" 195 lbs. Based off the size, it seems to me like that is comparing Haloti Ngata with Brian Urlacher cause they are both over 6' tall

 

[coolnerd]

Yes! The Bloom 100!How is Jaquizz Rodgers different from/the same as Dexter McCluster?

McCluster is more slight and thin-hipped like a WR, while Quizz is built thick and low like an RB - McCluster has better phone booth quicks, but Quizz can hang as an inside runner in the pros.

So is there a potential he could be a poor man's Warrick Dunn type?

not-so-poor... I see some MJD -minus long speed in him. I just know that his desire and football smarts/dedication are outstanding and his style almost turns mini-stature into advantage b/c of leverage a la MJD

Is it even close in comparison? Dunn is 5'9" 180 lbs, McCluster 5'9" 175 lbs while Rodgers is like 5'6" 195 lbs. Based off the size, it seems to me like that is comparing Haloti Ngata with Brian Urlacher cause they are both over 6' tall

I was thinking this when I saw the original question. those guys do not play the same game of football. A guy like Randall Cobb in terms of the style of play is a McCluster kinda WR, kinda RB, kinda slot player.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

All I meant was a guy that isn't prototypical NFL RB size that can still be a productive NFL RB. I don't think McCluster can. Dunn could. Sounds like Quizz may be able to.

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

Replace Jacquizz Rodgers with Taiwan Jones. I personally think his upside is a lot higher.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Replace Jacquizz Rodgers with Taiwan Jones. I personally think his upside is a lot higher.

I'm having trouble justifying backs like Vereen, Powell, Spann, Jones, and Harper outside of the top 20. All have great "best case scenarios" and none would shock me as one of the 3-5 best backs out of this class three years from now. That's one of the best things about this year's rookie draft, you can likely get one of your top 5-7 RBs in the 3rd round.

 

[zadok]

Replace Jacquizz Rodgers with Taiwan Jones. I personally think his upside is a lot higher.

He could be the next Chris Johnson? I don't have the guts to put him in my top 5, so he's sitting at 6.

 

[DexterDew]

Thanks Bloom! I agree with you except last partwhere I would say that you can find your top 5-7 by the end of the 2nd.

I personally have about a dozen RBs that I am considering (six picks, the last being 2.05), and I think the Jeter23 exercise shows what we all know: that after the Big 3, there are a lot of different opinions on which RB will/should go next... but I think there will be a lot of jockeying in the late first and second when owners want to make sure they get their guy instead of hoping they make it to the 3rd.

I see the first two rounds going 2 QBs, 1 TE, 13 RB and 8WR... and that is because there are so many RBs (and WR take longer to develope). YMMV.

 

[Matt Waldman]

While there are a few players here I really disagree with Bloom about here (Gabbert, Quizz, and (somewhat) Hunter), I enjoy his takes a lot because he not only aggregates information from a variety of sources, he has the intelligence and independence of thought to put his own spin on it. Great job!

 

[moderated]

Thanks for the rankings.

Also are these ff based or real life NFL based?

I ask because I have Cobb as the #3 wr for real world NFL but for FF purposes I just don't see him as having stud wr type potential. He is a solid wr but will be more of a jack of all trades type of guy which usually doesn't translate to FF stardom. Also he doesn't have great deep speed so won't be the type who has long td's like a desean Jackson.

 

[Illegal Pants Downfield]

NFL Draft season (and the rookie drafts following) are like Christmas in April...it was worth the wait, Bloom - thanks!

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Thanks for the rankings.Also are these ff based or real life NFL based?I ask because I have Cobb as the #3 wr for real world NFL but for FF purposes I just don't see him as having stud wr type potential. He is a solid wr but will be more of a jack of all trades type of guy which usually doesn't translate to FF stardom. Also he doesn't have great deep speed so won't be the type who has long td's like a desean Jackson.

FF - but of course "real life" is a huge element of that.Re: Cobb - I think he will end up being a target that his QB comes to rely on in short order...

 

[moderated]

Thanks for the rankings.Also are these ff based or real life NFL based?I ask because I have Cobb as the #3 wr for real world NFL but for FF purposes I just don't see him as having stud wr type potential. He is a solid wr but will be more of a jack of all trades type of guy which usually doesn't translate to FF stardom. Also he doesn't have great deep speed so won't be the type who has long td's like a desean Jackson.

FF - but of course "real life" is a huge element of that.Re: Cobb - I think he will end up being a target that his QB comes to rely on in short order...

I agree he'll be a great security blanket for a qb and could develop into a 75 reception type guy, but without great deep speed ala d.Jackson or the size to be a really good redone threat I just can't see him as having stud wr potential as it relates to FF.With a 6-8 pick I want to swing for the fences, but I can see someone wanting to go a safer router and lock up a likely 800-1000 yard/4-6 td guy. His ceiling for FF just doesn't excite me, but for NFL purposes I love his multi faceted game.

 

[loose circuits]

All I meant was a guy that isn't prototypical NFL RB size that can still be a productive NFL RB. I don't think McCluster can. Dunn could. Sounds like Quizz may be able to.

you realize having low center of gravity could be a good thing as well as being able to 'hide' behind blockers? I think the 'size' debate is a ridiculous one unless a guy looks rail skinny like Jerious Norwood. wasn't there a guy from Oklahoma State a few years ago that was short & a decent RB?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

All I meant was a guy that isn't prototypical NFL RB size that can still be a productive NFL RB. I don't think McCluster can. Dunn could. Sounds like Quizz may be able to.

you realize having low center of gravity could be a good thing as well as being able to 'hide' behind blockers? I think the 'size' debate is a ridiculous one unless a guy looks rail skinny like Jerious Norwood. wasn't there a guy from Oklahoma State a few years ago that was short & a decent RB?

Players are much bigger and faster today. And yes, I realize that. It's why I was asking what kind of player Quizz is, having never seen him play.

 

[BigTex]

The Bloomberg Report!!!!!!!

 

[Tick]

Something you've done at times is put non-PPR ranks in parentheses... I like that.

 

[Dave Larkin]

also, traditionally your 100 is an idp list as well... typically we've been seeing lbs start sneaking in the early teens... is this a fairly weak idp class? or has your value of idps relative to offense diminished some?

Weak IDP class, deep 2nd tier of offensive players, Some offensive players are going to fall farther than we expect or end up in bad situations. I expect Martez Wilson and maybe a few other LBs to end up in the top 20 post-draft

Thanks for the thoughts Sig. I've noticed nobody is really raving in IDP land about the IDP prospects this year. I was surprised to see not even one IDP in the top 20, but now I know why.

 

[pretender]

Great work as usual Sigmund! Worth waiting for