Boldin or Crabtree (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Boldin is proven but turns 29 in October. Crabtree turns 22 in September, but is obviously unproven.

So which would you trade for/draft if you were a GM?

Assuming both players were on the open market right now, and could be signed as free agents, who do you think would sign the larger deal?

 

[•TheRealMcCoy]

Boldin is proven but turns 29 in October. Crabtree turns 22 in September, but is obviously unproven.So which would you trade for/draft if you were a GM?Assuming both players were on the open market right now, and could be signed as free agents, who do you think would sign the larger deal?

Gotta go proven here? Boldin for me. But maybe I eat my words in a few years.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

28 is not that old for a WR, and Boldin is a damn good one.

While Crabtree has a good upside, I don't see him being the Calvin/Fitz type prospect that could turn into a dominating force in the league. I think his upside is about what Boldin is now, so go ahead and give me Boldin and skip all the developmental time and risk involved at the cost of age.

 

[jestertj]

Depends on what team I'm GM for. A team with legit playoff aspirations should get Boldin. A team that's rebuilding may go Crabtree. I voted Boldin though.

 

[Two Deep]

Boldin. Crabtree gotta show something in the NFL before I believe the hype. There have been far too many sure things that have not panned out.

 

[Darth Cheney]

A bird in the hand...

 

[Tau837]

Depends on what team I'm GM for. A team with legit playoff aspirations should get Boldin. A team that's rebuilding may go Crabtree. I voted Boldin though.

 

[TheFanatic]

Boldin, prior to this contract mess, has always been considered a great locker room presence. Good leadership guy. I'm not saying that Crabtree is a cancer or anything. I don't know if he is or he isn't. Boldin is a guy that can lead a WR squad and teach them. Not just get his stats and cash his check....

 

[The Jacket]

This question would be worth considering if the WR prospect wasn't Crabtree, who's a vastly overrated late-first type of talent.

Easily Boldin.

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

Love Boldin as a player and a teamate but he's always hurt, chronic Hip to deal with, and 7years older. As a GM i have to think about my future. I am in minority here per the polls. What surprises me is the seperation of the polls. I suppose if I am going for Championship this year Boldin would have to be the answer. But if I am building for down the road I am not so sure BOLDIN has that many years left. He had every body part hurt last year. It takes a toll on you.

 

[TitusIII]

Given Boldin's age/injury history, I think Crabtree is given a larger contract by the majority of NFL GM's, and is probably more coveted as well. Tough call, nice post!

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

Boldin

Come on Bidwills, pay the man some of that good scrilla.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I'd trade for Boldin and sign Crabtree.

 

[MDSkinner]

To me it is Boldin and not close. I like Crabtree, he seems like a really good player but it is tough to bank on young WR's. There are not too many guys like Calvin and Larry out there that you just know are going to be great coming out of college. And Crabtree is also not that guy to me.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Even if Crab reaches his ceiling, he's only Boldin anyways, so skip out on the 2-3 years to develop into that player (potentially) and get the guy that will do it for another 4 years or better.

Unless I'm Oakland... then they're both too slow.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

To me it is Boldin and not close. I like Crabtree, he seems like a really good player but it is tough to bank on young WR's. There are not too many guys like Calvin and Larry out there that you just know are going to be great coming out of college. And Crabtree is also not that guy to me.

 

[NorrisB]

To me it is Boldin and not close. I like Crabtree, he seems like a really good player but it is tough to bank on young WR's. There are not too many guys like Calvin and Larry out there that you just know are going to be great coming out of college. And Crabtree is also not that guy to me.

 

[RudeDog]

No-Brainer here. This could possibly be the most lopsided poll evah !

 

[Sebowski]

Easily Boldin, yet no one is banging on the Cardinals' door to get him. Crazy.

It may be worth the picks for the Skins to get him even it is just a keep-away move so the Eagles or Giants don't get him.

AZ, please trade him to the AFC.

 

[todisco1]

Boldin. Proven stud over a rookie every time.

 

[The High Priest]

I love Boldin..but his durability scares me. He plays like a man man, probably why he gets hurt. He's 29..they are talking about his hips being bad. If I have a contender and need a WR(NY,Dallas..Im sure more) Boldin makes sence, but I think I would take Crabtree otherwise.

<::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

 

[Chase Stuart]

Boldin. Proven stud over a rookie every time.

Sterling Sharpe, Warren Wells, Derrick Alexander, Bob Hayes, Wes Chandler, Cris Collinsworth, John Taylor, Herman Moore and Gary Clark all had big years in their late 20s before basically falling off for the rest of their careers.I'm not saying I totally disagree with you, but "proven studs" bust pretty frequently, too.

 

[Jerry Lawler]

This question would be worth considering if the WR prospect wasn't Crabtree, who's a vastly overrated late-first type of talent. Easily Boldin.

If this was a once in a decade prospect like Calvin Johnson, I would have gone with the rookie. I don't see Crabtree as being that type of prospect.

 

[Tau837]

Boldin. Proven stud over a rookie every time.

Sterling Sharpe, Warren Wells, Derrick Alexander, Bob Hayes, Wes Chandler, Cris Collinsworth, John Taylor, Herman Moore and Gary Clark all had big years in their late 20s before basically falling off for the rest of their careers.I'm not saying I totally disagree with you, but "proven studs" bust pretty frequently, too.

That's kind of a sloppy statement for you, Chase. Seems to me that you should define "proven stud" and "bust" and then provide some data that proves that "proven studs" "bust" pretty frequently. (Since you are the type of guy who normally backs up his claims with data.) Also, let's be clear what is being compared here. The odds of the performance of a "proven stud" falling off sharply around age 30 or soon thereafter vs. the odds of a rookie WR "busting". Are those really similar enough? A rookie WR might not "bust" but also might not ever reach "proven stud" level... and a "proven stud" might fall off, but still be a solid performer, just not at the same elite level.Just looking at the list you provided, IMO it is debatable whether Derrick Alexander, Cris Collinsworth, and/or John Taylor were "proven studs." From a fantasy perspective, I'll suggest that at least 3 top 10 finishes at the WR position through age 29 could be used as a loose definition. (Feel free to define a better one.) That criteria fits Boldin and rules out Alexander, Collinsworth, and Taylor.Of the other 6, I know Sharpe's career ended abruptly due to injury... I don't think that really provides much predictive value. Not if any of the others had a similar injury, but it is certainly true that some of these older players did not have the advantage of modern nutrition, training, and medical care, which can extend careers and higher production. Regardless, this leaves a very small sample size of "proven studs" who "busted" soon after their late 20s.And, of course, you didn't mention any of the guys who didn't... like Rice, Harrison, Owens, Tim Brown, Carter, Bruce, Lofton, etc. My gut feeling is that it is very likely that a player like Boldin will outperform a player like Crabtree for the next 3-5 years. Of course, it's also very possible that a team would have to pay Boldin more over that period than they would have to pay Crabtree (not sure of the market for a rookie WR taken in the 5-10 range)... so that should probably also be part of this value judgement.As you can tell, I voted Boldin.

 

[lynx4ben]

If NFL teams think the same as posters here why doesn't someone with a top 10 pick trade it for Boldin? Cleveland, Oakland, Cinci? Let's say Crabtree goes top 10; if Boldin is clearly better and more proven why wouldn't the team just trade the pick for Boldin.

What's missing here? I realize the Cards want more than a first but if the difference as big as people make it sounds it seems like a no brainer.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Boldin. Proven stud over a rookie every time.

Sterling Sharpe, Warren Wells, Derrick Alexander, Bob Hayes, Wes Chandler, Cris Collinsworth, John Taylor, Herman Moore and Gary Clark all had big years in their late 20s before basically falling off for the rest of their careers.I'm not saying I totally disagree with you, but "proven studs" bust pretty frequently, too.

That's kind of a sloppy statement for you, Chase. Seems to me that you should define "proven stud" and "bust" and then provide some data that proves that "proven studs" "bust" pretty frequently. (Since you are the type of guy who normally backs up his claims with data.) Also, let's be clear what is being compared here. The odds of the performance of a "proven stud" falling off sharply around age 30 or soon thereafter vs. the odds of a rookie WR "busting". Are those really similar enough? A rookie WR might not "bust" but also might not ever reach "proven stud" level... and a "proven stud" might fall off, but still be a solid performer, just not at the same elite level.Just looking at the list you provided, IMO it is debatable whether Derrick Alexander, Cris Collinsworth, and/or John Taylor were "proven studs." From a fantasy perspective, I'll suggest that at least 3 top 10 finishes at the WR position through age 29 could be used as a loose definition. (Feel free to define a better one.) That criteria fits Boldin and rules out Alexander, Collinsworth, and Taylor.Of the other 6, I know Sharpe's career ended abruptly due to injury... I don't think that really provides much predictive value. Not if any of the others had a similar injury, but it is certainly true that some of these older players did not have the advantage of modern nutrition, training, and medical care, which can extend careers and higher production. Regardless, this leaves a very small sample size of "proven studs" who "busted" soon after their late 20s.And, of course, you didn't mention any of the guys who didn't... like Rice, Harrison, Owens, Tim Brown, Carter, Bruce, Lofton, etc. My gut feeling is that it is very likely that a player like Boldin will outperform a player like Crabtree for the next 3-5 years. Of course, it's also very possible that a team would have to pay Boldin more over that period than they would have to pay Crabtree (not sure of the market for a rookie WR taken in the 5-10 range)... so that should probably also be part of this value judgement.As you can tell, I voted Boldin.

Pretty clearly, though, Crabtree is not just some rookie. He's a future top ten pick.Anyway, I'll have more to say on this after I post the full study I did.

 

[millertyme1]

Real world: Boldin (because if you're dealing for him you're a contender looking for him to put you over the top).

Fantasy Dynasty startup: Crabtree easily

 

[Tau837]

Boldin. Proven stud over a rookie every time.

Sterling Sharpe, Warren Wells, Derrick Alexander, Bob Hayes, Wes Chandler, Cris Collinsworth, John Taylor, Herman Moore and Gary Clark all had big years in their late 20s before basically falling off for the rest of their careers.I'm not saying I totally disagree with you, but "proven studs" bust pretty frequently, too.

That's kind of a sloppy statement for you, Chase. Seems to me that you should define "proven stud" and "bust" and then provide some data that proves that "proven studs" "bust" pretty frequently. (Since you are the type of guy who normally backs up his claims with data.) :XAlso, let's be clear what is being compared here. The odds of the performance of a "proven stud" falling off sharply around age 30 or soon thereafter vs. the odds of a rookie WR "busting". Are those really similar enough? A rookie WR might not "bust" but also might not ever reach "proven stud" level... and a "proven stud" might fall off, but still be a solid performer, just not at the same elite level.Just looking at the list you provided, IMO it is debatable whether Derrick Alexander, Cris Collinsworth, and/or John Taylor were "proven studs." From a fantasy perspective, I'll suggest that at least 3 top 10 finishes at the WR position through age 29 could be used as a loose definition. (Feel free to define a better one.) That criteria fits Boldin and rules out Alexander, Collinsworth, and Taylor.Of the other 6, I know Sharpe's career ended abruptly due to injury... I don't think that really provides much predictive value. Not if any of the others had a similar injury, but it is certainly true that some of these older players did not have the advantage of modern nutrition, training, and medical care, which can extend careers and higher production. Regardless, this leaves a very small sample size of "proven studs" who "busted" soon after their late 20s.And, of course, you didn't mention any of the guys who didn't... like Rice, Harrison, Owens, Tim Brown, Carter, Bruce, Lofton, etc. My gut feeling is that it is very likely that a player like Boldin will outperform a player like Crabtree for the next 3-5 years. Of course, it's also very possible that a team would have to pay Boldin more over that period than they would have to pay Crabtree (not sure of the market for a rookie WR taken in the 5-10 range)... so that should probably also be part of this value judgement.As you can tell, I voted Boldin.

Pretty clearly, though, Crabtree is not just some rookie. He's a future top ten pick.Anyway, I'll have more to say on this after I post the full study I did.

I look forward to that. However, it's kind of tricky to just say "he's a future top ten pick." You are right that there is presumably a different bust rate for WRs that are worthy of top 10 picks vs. all WRs drafted, of course. But the tricky part is determining whether a WR is worthy of a top 10 pick. And all drafts aren't equal, either... in a draft that is strong at WR, being worthy of a top 10 pick is much better than it is in a draft that is weak at WR. And on top of that is the needs of the teams in a given draft... in some years, it could be the case that none of the teams picking in the top 10 need a WR (or need one as much as they need other things)... in other years, there could be a number of teams in the top 10 who need one. How will you account for these variables?

 

[Arizona Ron]

Depends on what team I'm GM for. A team with legit playoff aspirations should get Boldin. A team that's rebuilding may go Crabtree. I voted Boldin though.

 

[Two Deep]

There was great expectations for this top ten pick.

DAVID TERRELL

By: Dave-Te' Thomas

#1-DAVID TERRELL University of Michigan Wolverines 6:02.5-208

ANALYSIS

Positives... Prototype receiver with the perfect ingredients (size, strength, speed)...Flashes an explosive upfield burst and quick acceleration to easily gain advantage over the defender in deep routes...Has a sharp release off the line, using his hands well to extend and push off the defensive back...His outstanding leg drive and impressive size make it very difficult for his opponent to apply press coverage...Has superb field awareness, tracking the ball in flight while making proper body adjustments to get under the pass... Very capable to snap off his route and come back for the off-target throws...Has large, soft hands, plucking the ball out of the air with his long fingers properly extended...Shows excellent concentration on the ball and aggression going for it in traffic...Has excellent leaping ability and arm extension to maintain position for the high passes...Master of keeping his feet inbounds working the sidelines...Has the flexibility to catch the over-the-shoulder passes and runs with good body lean...Great upfield blocker who is very effective delivering the cut blocks for the ground game...Graceful strider whose outstanding stop-&-go action allows him to suddenly freeze the defender after the catch...Has also seen action as a defensive back in the nickel and dime formations.

Negatives... ...Needs to show better awareness on corner/post routes as it seems he wants to turn upfield before properly securing the ball...Shows some wasted motion trying to accelerate and burst when running underneath routes...More of an intermediate route runner tan a deep threat.

CAREER NOTES

Playing for a school with a long-standing tradition of producing standout receivers, David more that made his mark on the playing field while rewriting several records during his time in a Wolverines uniform...In only three seasons at Michigan (two as a starter), he managed to haul in 152 passes for 2317 yards (15.2 avg) and 23 touchdowns...Only Anthony Carter (161, 1979-82) had more receptions in a career for Michigan...His 2317 yards are topped only by Carter (3076) and Amani Toomer (2657, 1992-95) in school annals...His 23 touchdowns receptions rank behind Desmond Howard (32, 1989-91) and Carter (37) on the Wolverines' all-time record list...Gained over 100 yards receiving in nine games during his career, surpassed only by Carter (14) in school history...First player in Michigan annals to gain over 1000 yards receiving in more than one season (1999-2000)...Caught at least one pass in his last 24 games...Accounted for 2168 yards receiving in his last 24 games, with 1317 of those yards coming after the catch.

REMIND ME OF... San Francisco's Terrell Owens.

GAZING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL... It could come down to Terrell or Koren Robinson as the Cleveland Browns' first round choice. No matter what the outcome, Terrell will long be gone before the Bears come on board, even though Chicago would love to add him to their arsenal. I like Terrell's maturity and toughness better than I like Robinson's speed.

 

[FUBAR]

Boldin. Proven stud over a rookie every time.

Sterling Sharpe, Warren Wells, Derrick Alexander, Bob Hayes, Wes Chandler, Cris Collinsworth, John Taylor, Herman Moore and Gary Clark all had big years in their late 20s before basically falling off for the rest of their careers.I'm not saying I totally disagree with you, but "proven studs" bust pretty frequently, too.

Boldin has been in the league 6 years and aside from injuries hasn't had a bad year. 5 receptions and 60 yards per game is his floor. You can't say that about the guys you listed. I'd love to see how frequently a player with 5+ years in the league, has never had a bad year, and isn't 30 yet "busts". If your argument is that you might get 6 more years out of Crabtree than you would Boldin, I won't argue except to say there's more immediate risk with Crabtree.

 

[FUBAR]

There was great expectations for this top ten pick.DAVID TERRELL By: Dave-Te' Thomas #1-DAVID TERRELL University of Michigan Wolverines 6:02.5-208GAZING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL... It could come down to Terrell or Koren Robinson as the Cleveland Browns' first round choice. No matter what the outcome, Terrell will long be gone before the Bears come on board, even though Chicago would love to add him to their arsenal. I like Terrell's maturity and toughness better than I like Robinson's speed.

9 2005 1 7 Troy Williamson WR MIN 2005 2008 0 0 1 47 6 58 0 84 1097 4 South Carolina10 2005 1 10 Mike Williams WR DET 2005 2007 0 0 0 30 44 539 2 USC16 2004 1 9 Reggie Williams WR JAX 2004 2008 0 0 3 79 11 44 0 189 2322 18 Washington21 2003 1 2 Charles Rogers WR DET 2003 2005 0 0 0 15 2 17 0 36 440 4 Michigan State27 2001 1 8 David Terrell WR CHI 2001 2005 0 0 1 54 4 14 0 128 1602 9 Michigan28 2001 1 9 Koren Robinson WR SEA 2001 2008 0 1 4 96 23 115 1 294 4244 16 North Carolina State33 2000 1 4 Peter Warrick WR CIN 2000 2005 0 0 4 79 53 360 2 275 2991 18 Florida State35 2000 1 10 Travis Taylor WR BAL 2000 2007 0 0 7 101 32 232 0 312 4017 22 FloridaElite WR prospects bust more than some would like to believe.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=2138

Ignoring cost, which player should be better for the next seven or so years? Obviously this is an impossible question to answer, as projecting the future is usually pointless. The very first post in PFR blog history asked whether Shaun Alexander or Reggie Bush would be the better player going forward; unfortunately, neither of the above wasn’t an option.

So while we don’t *really* know who is going to be better, and there are tons of intangibles surrounding both Boldin and Crabtree, I thought I’d take my best stab at trying to project the future for both players. To begin, I looked at all WRs who were “similar” to Anquan Boldin. What does that mean? Two things; one, in any year between 1970 and 2001, the WR was either 27, 28 or 29 years old. Two, they had to have between 500 and 900 yards of “Adjusted Value” in that specific season, using the formula from the Greatest WR Ever Series. Boldin last year had 661 adjusted yards of value.

I chose 1970 since that’s the year the two leagues merged; 2001 is a good end date because that gives all WRs in the study seven years following the specific year in question. There were 92 WRs that fit the “age 27-29″ and “value of 500-900 yards” description, ranging from players like Alfred Jenkins (who was a first team All Pro at age 29 in 1981 but caught just two TDs the rest of his career) to Cris Carter (who earned his first Pro Bowl berth at age 28 in 1993 and would go back to Hawaii for each of the next seven seasons). Who knows how Boldin will turn out, but these 92 data points give us a good starting point. I used the cutoff of 500 and 900 yards to provide a large enough sample for Boldin; many more players had between 500 and 661 yards of value than between 661 and say, 822, so we have to use a higher top point that bottom point.

The important thing is that of those 92 WRs, the average player was 28 years old and had a value of +655 in year N. That sounds a lot like Boldin in 2008. So how did the average WR do going forward? He had a weighted score of +1453 yards over the next seven seasons, using 100% of each receiver’s value in Year N+1, 95% of his value in Year N+2,… and finally 70% of his value in Year N+7. Below is the yearly breakdown.

Click the link for the full post, along with the full list of comparables to Boldin and Fitzgerald.

 

[rzrback77]

I have enjopyed the commentary in this thread and am very surprised that the voting is so heavy for Boldin, even though I voted that way as well. The above post of all the early first round busts is lengthy, but the more recent success of Calvin and the two rookies last year led me to believe tha the vote would be closer.

 

[Chase Stuart]

There was great expectations for this top ten pick.DAVID TERRELL By: Dave-Te' Thomas #1-DAVID TERRELL University of Michigan Wolverines 6:02.5-208GAZING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL... It could come down to Terrell or Koren Robinson as the Cleveland Browns' first round choice. No matter what the outcome, Terrell will long be gone before the Bears come on board, even though Chicago would love to add him to their arsenal. I like Terrell's maturity and toughness better than I like Robinson's speed.

9 2005 1 7 Troy Williamson WR MIN 2005 2008 0 0 1 47 6 58 0 84 1097 4 South Carolina10 2005 1 10 Mike Williams WR DET 2005 2007 0 0 0 30 44 539 2 USC16 2004 1 9 Reggie Williams WR JAX 2004 2008 0 0 3 79 11 44 0 189 2322 18 Washington21 2003 1 2 Charles Rogers WR DET 2003 2005 0 0 0 15 2 17 0 36 440 4 Michigan State27 2001 1 8 David Terrell WR CHI 2001 2005 0 0 1 54 4 14 0 128 1602 9 Michigan28 2001 1 9 Koren Robinson WR SEA 2001 2008 0 1 4 96 23 115 1 294 4244 16 North Carolina State33 2000 1 4 Peter Warrick WR CIN 2000 2005 0 0 4 79 53 360 2 275 2991 18 Florida State35 2000 1 10 Travis Taylor WR BAL 2000 2007 0 0 7 101 32 232 0 312 4017 22 FloridaElite WR prospects bust more than some would like to believe.

You're ignoring Fitz, Calvin, Johnson, Roy Williams, Plaxico and Edwards.

 

[Otis]

Think about how infrequently WR prospects actually pan out. Give me Boldin every day.

 

[Darker Knight]

It's like someone else said.....we would all be happy with Crabtree if he could turn out to be as good as Boldin........So I take Boldin every time.....and I really like Crabtree

 

[FUBAR]

There was great expectations for this top ten pick.DAVID TERRELL By: Dave-Te' Thomas #1-DAVID TERRELL University of Michigan Wolverines 6:02.5-208GAZING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL... It could come down to Terrell or Koren Robinson as the Cleveland Browns' first round choice. No matter what the outcome, Terrell will long be gone before the Bears come on board, even though Chicago would love to add him to their arsenal. I like Terrell's maturity and toughness better than I like Robinson's speed.

9 2005 1 7 Troy Williamson WR MIN 2005 2008 0 0 1 47 6 58 0 84 1097 4 South Carolina10 2005 1 10 Mike Williams WR DET 2005 2007 0 0 0 30 44 539 2 USC16 2004 1 9 Reggie Williams WR JAX 2004 2008 0 0 3 79 11 44 0 189 2322 18 Washington21 2003 1 2 Charles Rogers WR DET 2003 2005 0 0 0 15 2 17 0 36 440 4 Michigan State27 2001 1 8 David Terrell WR CHI 2001 2005 0 0 1 54 4 14 0 128 1602 9 Michigan28 2001 1 9 Koren Robinson WR SEA 2001 2008 0 1 4 96 23 115 1 294 4244 16 North Carolina State33 2000 1 4 Peter Warrick WR CIN 2000 2005 0 0 4 79 53 360 2 275 2991 18 Florida State35 2000 1 10 Travis Taylor WR BAL 2000 2007 0 0 7 101 32 232 0 312 4017 22 FloridaElite WR prospects bust more than some would like to believe.

You're ignoring Fitz, Calvin, Johnson, Roy Williams, Plaxico and Edwards.

Not ignoring, just pointing out the busts. We all know there are good picks too. Although do Roy and Braylon help show why you'd prefer the rookie WR to Boldin?

 

[Tau837]

There was great expectations for this top ten pick.DAVID TERRELL By: Dave-Te' Thomas #1-DAVID TERRELL University of Michigan Wolverines 6:02.5-208GAZING INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL... It could come down to Terrell or Koren Robinson as the Cleveland Browns' first round choice. No matter what the outcome, Terrell will long be gone before the Bears come on board, even though Chicago would love to add him to their arsenal. I like Terrell's maturity and toughness better than I like Robinson's speed.

9 2005 1 7 Troy Williamson WR MIN 2005 2008 0 0 1 47 6 58 0 84 1097 4 South Carolina10 2005 1 10 Mike Williams WR DET 2005 2007 0 0 0 30 44 539 2 USC16 2004 1 9 Reggie Williams WR JAX 2004 2008 0 0 3 79 11 44 0 189 2322 18 Washington21 2003 1 2 Charles Rogers WR DET 2003 2005 0 0 0 15 2 17 0 36 440 4 Michigan State27 2001 1 8 David Terrell WR CHI 2001 2005 0 0 1 54 4 14 0 128 1602 9 Michigan28 2001 1 9 Koren Robinson WR SEA 2001 2008 0 1 4 96 23 115 1 294 4244 16 North Carolina State33 2000 1 4 Peter Warrick WR CIN 2000 2005 0 0 4 79 53 360 2 275 2991 18 Florida State35 2000 1 10 Travis Taylor WR BAL 2000 2007 0 0 7 101 32 232 0 312 4017 22 FloridaElite WR prospects bust more than some would like to believe.

You're ignoring Fitz, Calvin, Johnson, Roy Williams, Plaxico and Edwards.

Kind of like you ignored the proven stud WRs who went on to be successful in your earlier post. Even accounting for the guys you just named, that's 5 successes out of 13 top 10 WR picks in the past 9 drafts. Not a good success rate.

 

[KellysHeroes]

If NFL teams think the same as posters here why doesn't someone with a top 10 pick trade it for Boldin? Cleveland, Oakland, Cinci? Let's say Crabtree goes top 10; if Boldin is clearly better and more proven why wouldn't the team just trade the pick for Boldin. What's missing here? I realize the Cards want more than a first but if the difference as big as people make it sounds it seems like a no brainer.

Zona doesn't want a top 5 pick, maybe not even a top 10 pick... way to much money on the line. They want a mid pick & proven player.Why should they consider trading Q anyway... hes signed for 2 more seasons.

 

[Wu-banger]

Depends on what team I'm GM for. A team with legit playoff aspirations should get Boldin. A team that's rebuilding may go Crabtree. I voted Boldin though.

his is pretty much how I feel... Rams , Detroit , Browns , San Fran ... maybe a few others I go Crabtree.

 

[timschochet]

Last year, during Superbowl week, they asked Hines Ward what he thought of Boldin. Ward said, "I thought I was a physical WR. Boldin's in a whole different league. He's the most physical WR in the NFL."

That's enough for me.

 

[lynx4ben]

If NFL teams think the same as posters here why doesn't someone with a top 10 pick trade it for Boldin? Cleveland, Oakland, Cinci? Let's say Crabtree goes top 10; if Boldin is clearly better and more proven why wouldn't the team just trade the pick for Boldin.

What's missing here? I realize the Cards want more than a first but if the difference as big as people make it sounds it seems like a no brainer.

I want to repose this question and be more direct. If it as clear cut as this poll perceives it to be why wouldn't any team with a top 15 pick who needs a WR just trade it for Boldin? I have a feeling that most teams picking that high and have a need would instead just grab Crabtree. Afterall, the Browns are rumored to want to trade Braylon and grab crabtree. Boldin is obviously the more proven receiver than Braylon but Braylon is 3 years younger.

It's hard to compare apples to apples. However, I believe the NFL executive would draft Crabtree with a top 15 pick over trading that pick for Boldin. I think too many of us are looking it from the fantasy perspective. Yes, from a fantasy perspective I would never trade Boldin for Crab without proven results. However, from an NFL franchise's prospective I think most teams want the young elite talent that they can groom in house.

Granted Crabtree isn't the prospect that Fitz or Calvin was. I'm not sure how I would compare him to AJ or Braylon coming out (I just haven't thought about it). However, as far as a prospect is concerned he is only a small notch behind these guys. That notch being measurables (ignoring character). Obviously Crabtree was crazy productive in college and has great hands.

But no he is not as tall and didn't run a sub 4.4.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Even accounting for the guys you just named, that's 5 successes out of 13 top 10 WR picks in the past 9 drafts. Not a good success rate.

True.What do you think of the blog post?

 

[FUBAR]

If it as clear cut as this poll perceives it to be why wouldn't any team with a top 15 pick who needs a WR just trade it for Boldin? I have a feeling that most teams picking that high and have a need would instead just grab Crabtree. Afterall, the Browns are rumored to want to trade Braylon and grab crabtree. Boldin is obviously the more proven receiver than Braylon but Braylon is 3 years younger.

It's hard to compare apples to apples. However, I believe the NFL executive would draft Crabtree with a top 15 pick over trading that pick for Boldin. I think too many of us are looking it from the fantasy perspective. Yes, from a fantasy perspective I would never trade Boldin for Crab without proven results. However, from an NFL franchise's prospective I think most teams want the young elite talent that they can groom in house.

Granted Crabtree isn't the prospect that Fitz or Calvin was. I'm not sure how I would compare him to AJ or Braylon coming out (I just haven't thought about it). However, as far as a prospect is concerned he is only a small notch behind these guys. That notch being measurables (ignoring character). Obviously Crabtree was crazy productive in college and has great hands.

But no he is not as tall and didn't run a sub 4.4.

One the first point - a big reason why Braylon is on the market is signability. Braylon likely won't be a Brown for more than a year or two. Boldin is almost the same. On the second - emphatic agreement. It's the unknown factor, Crabtree could be one of the best ever (although I doubt he's better than 5-10 in the NFL at any point) and teams like to groom their own players for a variety of reasons.

Crabtree is about equal to Braylon IMO, although with different stregths and weaknesses.

 

[Crimson King]

I'm on board with the majority, and I don't think it's that close, largely in part to the reasons posted above. WR's, even supposed locks, are by nature a fickle group. Chase you posted 5 top picks that have worked out, and even one of them is questionable (Roy W: he's had 1 good season and is far from stellar). I truly believe that if given the choice, you always go with the proven player, especially if that player has proven he is exceptional as Boldin has.

 

[Tau837]

What do you think of the blog post?

As I read the post, I was prepared to offer some criticisms but found you had covered them. I would take issue with these things:

Things are different now than they were, on average, from 1970-2001 (including how much money you’d have to give each player). A much higher percentage of top ten WRs have busted from ‘02 to now than from ‘70 to ‘01; it’s your call whether that’s a trend or just noise due to a small sample size.

You focused your comment here on the rookie side of this, but it is arguably more of a factor for the veteran WR. I would expect it to be easier for a modern day WR to maintain high production to an older age than it was in the 70s, 80s, and even 90s, due to improvements in training, nutrition, and medical care. So using an average for Boldin that includes players that go so far back probably leads to underprojecting him going forward.

an argument could be made that we should be using two or three years worth of production for Boldin. I didn’t because Boldin’s production was not nearly as good in either ‘06 or ‘07 as it was in ‘08, and I thought that would lower his comparables.

Why do they have to be consecutive seasons? When I did my quick look that I mentioned earlier in the thread, we were discussing "proven stud" WRs and I thought an easy metric that seemed to fit was a WR who had been a top 10 fantasy WR 3 or more times. So perhaps you should try to gather WRs who have had 3 or more seasons that meet some particular criteria.

Seven years is the wrong amount of time to use

This window seems too long for me. I doubt NFL teams use such a long window to make their decisions - too much pressure to win in the short term, plus it is rare for player contracts to be as long as 7 years. To me, a 5 year window seems more appropriate. And if I understand your post correctly, a 5 year window would project Boldin with a substantial edge over Crabtree.

no adjustment is made for the talent in each draft

Yes, I mentioned this earlier in the thread. Not sure how you can adjust for this, but it's an issue. And it's not just the talent, it's also the needs of the teams with top 10 draft picks in each draft. It seems that a better way to define the rookie sample set would be to use some kind of objective measure of talent, like draft grade from a given service, but I assume such information is not available, particularly not all the way back to 1970.In addition to all that, there are other factors that aren't addressed in your comparison, such as leadership, toughness, and blocking. I realize some of this is very difficult to quantify in a formula, but I would think that an NFL GM would value these things about Boldin; I'm not sure how Crabtree is viewed in these areas.And of course there is cost. I assume Boldin will cost his team(s) more over the next 5-7 years than Crabtree will... though I'm not sure what a top 10 drafted rookie WR contract looks like nowadays.

 

[stevegamer]

Crabtree - larger total deal

Boldin- more valuable - and higher per year dollars.

 

[bcr8f]

I'll answer this on sunday.

 

[alg]

Proof's in the pudding...

On Saturday Crabtree will be drafted top 5-10. The team drafting Crab will not trade the pick to ARI for Boldin. Wouldn't even dream of it. Q would likely fetch an early 2nd. Don't tell me ARI wouldn't take a top 10 pick. Who is going to prefer a 2nd or late first?

That is because Crab is worth significantly more than Boldin. Younger, possibly cheaper, and with a higher upside. Much higher if you consider the injury history.

How about a dynasty FFB? Anyone here going to trade 1.01 for Boldin? Not too likely. And that is always the crux of the matter. Will you make the deal? Last year CJ2 was ranking in most parts around 10-15 for WRs. But the reality is you could not trade the guy who was number 2 for him straight up. Some leagues, sure, but by and large the true value of a player is more akin to his consensus trade value than anything else.

And this is always the thing that skewers the rankings on FBG and everywhere else. LT2 was ranked how high before last season? What's he worth now? It's just one year, right? What's wrong with that? He is worth little more now than a box of tape.