Josh Boyce or Stedman Bailey - I know there is a good Bailey thread going, but my question is who do you choose between the two? Both were 2nd WR drafted by their teams and could be stuck in a log jam to seeing playing time. Who do you take a shot at later in rookie drafts for now and future?
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Boyce or Bailey (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter SiahTwins
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Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
Bailey is the far more talented and not nearly in the logjam it appears. he'll not have much trouble moving ahead of B Quick and is the all around better WR then Givens. Givens has talent but Bailey the more rounded WR, and I'm also not sold on durability of T Austin at pro level. Not too impressed with J Cook either. The Rams will see before long Bailey is the best WR on the roster.
Boyce has more the obstacles with an offense built for TE's even when the top two are injured Ballard is there. Then they still have Edelman, Dobson, Jenkins and one or two others to compete in a very complex system. Amendola of course, and the Pats haven't been stellar in WR evaluations in quite some time.
Boyce has more the obstacles with an offense built for TE's even when the top two are injured Ballard is there. Then they still have Edelman, Dobson, Jenkins and one or two others to compete in a very complex system. Amendola of course, and the Pats haven't been stellar in WR evaluations in quite some time.
EBF
Footballguy
Bailey is only 5'10" and doesn't have great speed to compensate. You can count the number of dominant NFL WRs who fit that description on zero hands.
I think Lance Moore is Bailey's upside, and that's not very exciting.
Boyce is a superior physical talent in every respect. He also goes to a team with less talent at WR and a better quarterback. He doesn't look like a future mega star either, but he has a much higher ceiling.
I take Boyce here without much hesitation.
I think Lance Moore is Bailey's upside, and that's not very exciting.
Boyce is a superior physical talent in every respect. He also goes to a team with less talent at WR and a better quarterback. He doesn't look like a future mega star either, but he has a much higher ceiling.
I take Boyce here without much hesitation.
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
How did that 'superior physical talent' translate at the collegiate level where that gives many players an advantage they don't have in the Pros? We've seen how many times guys that run great '40's equate to nothing. There is absolutely nothing Boyce does better at this point other then a dash.
As far as the 5'10" knock how many great WR's shall we start naming who are under 6 foot?
As far as the 5'10" knock how many great WR's shall we start naming who are under 6 foot?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Lance Moore is a valid comparison and could be what he becomes, but that's not his upside any more than Devery Henderson is Boyce's upside. Bailey's upside is Hines Ward. If you want to say Boyce's upside is Victor Cruz or similar I think it's equally realistic but unlikely.
Shanahanigans
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
College production isn't a perfect predictor of pro success. Bailey is a marginal physical talent who thrived in a pass happy offense. Like Mark Clayton and Ryan Broyles.
Boyce does many things better than Bailey. He's bigger, faster, stronger, and quicker. He will be a tougher matchup for pro corners because of his size/speed/quickness combo.
Most of the successful short NFL WRs have good speed to compensate. Santonio Holmes, Steve Smith, and DeSean Jackson are all very fast. Bailey isn't.
If you really need to draft a 5'10" WR with 4.5 speed then go ahead, but that's not a combination that has seen much success in the NFL lately.
EBF
Footballguy
When did Steve Largent play? 30 years ago? Sorry, but that's not relevant to today's NFL.
Jennings is a better athlete than Bailey. An inch taller. Faster. Quicker in the three cone drill. A little more explosive in his jumps.
You can pretty much rule out the prospect of Bailey ever becoming a #1 NFL WR on the basis of measurables alone. He might end up becoming a good NFL weapon for the Rams as a versatile complementary receiver, but he doesn't appear to have much upside.
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
Fortunately careers and fantasy production aren't solely measurable dependent..
Bailey will enjoy the much better career then Boyce
And saying 'bigger faster stronger' doesn't mean he does anything 'better' on the field. Boyce has miles to go before he exhibits anything that looks reliable and confident at the pro level.
Go ask the Raiders how often this works out..
Here are a few more recent productive smaller WR's :
Harvin, Welker, S Smith, A Brown, R Cobb, V Cruz, TY Hilton, Amendola, Kerley, Shorts...
Bailey will enjoy the much better career then Boyce
And saying 'bigger faster stronger' doesn't mean he does anything 'better' on the field. Boyce has miles to go before he exhibits anything that looks reliable and confident at the pro level.
Go ask the Raiders how often this works out..
Here are a few more recent productive smaller WR's :
Harvin, Welker, S Smith, A Brown, R Cobb, V Cruz, TY Hilton, Amendola, Kerley, Shorts...
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EBF
Footballguy
If you look into the perennially elite FF WRs you'll find that they're great height/weight/speed athletes with few exceptions. There's a pretty well-established mold for what a #1 WR in the NFL looks like. Even some of the guys like Victor Cruz and Reggie Wayne who might not seem like great athletes at first glance are pretty much right in line with what you'd expect. You just don't see marginal physical talents dominating in the NFL. The defensive backs are to good to be beaten by an average athlete, no matter how good his WR skills may be. That's why guys like Peter Warrick and Mark Clayton struggled.
Bailey is much like them. Without great size or speed, he has no clear advantage over pro corners. That puts a pretty low cap on his ceiling. He might become a solid complementary receiver, but nothing more. A player of this type only has FF value if he falls into a perfect situation with a great QB. I don't think Bradford is going to be so good that he props up 2-3 productive NFL WRs. Austin is more dynamic than Bailey and Givens is a much more gifted athlete. Bailey could be a reliable safety valve who gets 600-800 yards per season as a bit player. Anything more would be a big surprise.
For FF purposes I'd much rather gamble on players who have the skill set to be great. Boyce was only picked 10 spots lower than Bailey by the NFL. He has a vastly superior set of tools, ranking as one of the best height/weight/speed athletes in the class. He goes to an offense with no proven starters at WR and a Hall of Fame QB. To me, this is a pretty easy decision. Boyce might not be a lock for stardom, but he has more potential and his path to relevance might actually be more direct. He has the potential to start as a rookie in a Tom Brady offense. I will take that over Sam Bradford's #3 receiver.
Bailey is much like them. Without great size or speed, he has no clear advantage over pro corners. That puts a pretty low cap on his ceiling. He might become a solid complementary receiver, but nothing more. A player of this type only has FF value if he falls into a perfect situation with a great QB. I don't think Bradford is going to be so good that he props up 2-3 productive NFL WRs. Austin is more dynamic than Bailey and Givens is a much more gifted athlete. Bailey could be a reliable safety valve who gets 600-800 yards per season as a bit player. Anything more would be a big surprise.
For FF purposes I'd much rather gamble on players who have the skill set to be great. Boyce was only picked 10 spots lower than Bailey by the NFL. He has a vastly superior set of tools, ranking as one of the best height/weight/speed athletes in the class. He goes to an offense with no proven starters at WR and a Hall of Fame QB. To me, this is a pretty easy decision. Boyce might not be a lock for stardom, but he has more potential and his path to relevance might actually be more direct. He has the potential to start as a rookie in a Tom Brady offense. I will take that over Sam Bradford's #3 receiver.
KCitons
Footballguy
I like both, but I took Bailey mid/late 2nd and Boyce mid/late 3rd in our Rookie draft. Biggest concern was the NE WR situation. I hate trying to figure out what BB is going to do from week to week. Pair that with NE drafting Dobson and I bumped Boyce down a little.
If Boyce was the only WR taken by the Pats, I would probably have have looked at him ahead of Bailey.
If Boyce was the only WR taken by the Pats, I would probably have have looked at him ahead of Bailey.
Shutout
Footballguy
I tend to look at the physical characteristics of Wrs more than a lot of other positions and while I do feel a bit uneasy when I look at Wrs that aren't in that 6'1"6'3" range, I don't let it block the other factors either.
I'll agree that if you have a big 6'2" target with all the physical measures, it probably is a plus because you can start thinking about the person being a big red zone target, leaper, strong against corners, etc but, at the end of the day, in this comparison, I like Bailey a lot more beacuse he has proven production, he has great hands, he runs great routes, he hasn't been subject to injuries, and he has played agianst competition where he has actually had to be pressed. I think a lot of people REALLY overlook that last part. A lot of these kids that play in some of these conferences don't really get pressed at all in the college level and it takes a while to adapt to that. I think Dez and Blackmon all experienced that.
At any rate, it is just hard for me (might not be for anyone else) to ignore what I have actually seen in play and I like that more than I like looking at combine times or looking at how a player is built and assuming.
I'll agree that if you have a big 6'2" target with all the physical measures, it probably is a plus because you can start thinking about the person being a big red zone target, leaper, strong against corners, etc but, at the end of the day, in this comparison, I like Bailey a lot more beacuse he has proven production, he has great hands, he runs great routes, he hasn't been subject to injuries, and he has played agianst competition where he has actually had to be pressed. I think a lot of people REALLY overlook that last part. A lot of these kids that play in some of these conferences don't really get pressed at all in the college level and it takes a while to adapt to that. I think Dez and Blackmon all experienced that.
At any rate, it is just hard for me (might not be for anyone else) to ignore what I have actually seen in play and I like that more than I like looking at combine times or looking at how a player is built and assuming.
I was able to snag Boyce (3.03) and Bailey (3.08) a few weeks ago. Looks like one or maybe both will be available in my current draft at 4.01 (two picks to before me (fingers crossed). I own both Amendola and Quick. Think I am going with Boyce if both there with hopes he will fill the Amendola role if/when Amendola goes down.
HellToupee
Footballguy
Invictus~Bronte said:
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Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
Great stat..what it's worth I have little clue but I'll not be comparing Cook to Gronk in any bizarro universe or otherwise
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I find it strange that you argue that Bailey's college production does not matter when just the other day you were saying this:EBF said:
College production sure seems to matter a lot to you when talking about Dobson.
I think both you and Bloom stuck your necks out big time for Boyce. I give you guys respect for that and sticking to your guns with him as well.
That being said you cannot have it both ways. Either college production matters or it doesn't. If Dobson is a bad prospect because he did not produce enough for you in college then Bailey is an awesome prospect for the same reason.
Josh Boyce
Receiving Rushing ScrimmageYear School Conf Class Pos Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD2010* Texas Christian MWC FR WR 34 646 19.0 6 0 0 0 34 646 19.0 62011* Texas Christian MWC SO WR 61 998 16.4 9 1 1 1.0 0 62 999 16.1 92012* Texas Christian Big 12 JR WR 66 891 13.5 7 3 6 2.0 1 69 897 13.0 8Career Texas Christian 161 2535 15.7 22 4 7 1.8 1 165 2542 15.4 23Aaron Dobson
Receiving Rushing ScrimmageYear School Conf Class Pos Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD2009* Marshall CUSA FR WR 15 362 24.1 4 0 0 0 15 362 24.1 42010 Marshall CUSA SO WR 44 689 15.7 5 2 18 9.0 0 46 707 15.4 52011* Marshall CUSA JR WR 49 668 13.6 12 1 1 1.0 0 50 669 13.4 122012 Marshall CUSA SR WR 57 679 11.9 3 0 0 0 57 679 11.9 3Career Marshall 165 2398 14.5 24 3 19 6.3 0 168 2417 14.4 24I do not really see Dobsons numbers as bad and they are not that different than what Boyce did.
Stedmon Bailey
Code:
Receiving Rushing ScrimmageYear School Conf Class Pos Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD2010* West Virginia Big East SO WR 24 317 13.2 4 0 0 0 24 317 13.2 42011* West Virginia Big East JR WR 72 1279 17.8 12 0 0 0 72 1279 17.8 122012* West Virginia Big 12 JR WR 114 1622 14.2 25 2 13 6.5 0 116 1635 14.1 25Career West Virginia 210 3218 15.3 41 2 13 6.5 0 212 3231 15.2 41
mjr
Footballguy
Every year since Moss a new WR going to NE is expected to have good stats because Brady will be throwing the ball, but what I think some people tend to overlook is how complicated the NE offense can be. Moss was a seasoned vet and the kind of talent a guy like BB would consider altering the offensive plan to accommodate at least a little. Rookies and other FAs aren't so lucky, and if they don't pick things up quick enough, they could be looking for employment again after none too long.
Boyce might have the measurements, but he's not in the optimal situation many might think, at least that's what I think (of course, now that I've said it, he'll be a stud).
Bailey isn't in all that great a situation either, but I would take him before Boyce, especially in a PPR league. He wont be a fancy pick and probably will never be a true, solid #2 FF WR, but I would expect him to produce as a good #3 or bye week filler these next few years where Boyce is most likely to sit on my bench for that same time frame and might not survive the cut in NE long enough to fully grasp the system and shine in it. You don't know if this guy is going to end up in Cleveland with Weeden throwing to him 2 or 3 years from now.
Boyce might have the measurements, but he's not in the optimal situation many might think, at least that's what I think (of course, now that I've said it, he'll be a stud).
Bailey isn't in all that great a situation either, but I would take him before Boyce, especially in a PPR league. He wont be a fancy pick and probably will never be a true, solid #2 FF WR, but I would expect him to produce as a good #3 or bye week filler these next few years where Boyce is most likely to sit on my bench for that same time frame and might not survive the cut in NE long enough to fully grasp the system and shine in it. You don't know if this guy is going to end up in Cleveland with Weeden throwing to him 2 or 3 years from now.
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This is a bit of an unfair criticism. College production can be a hygiene factor where you need a certain amount of it, but beyond a certain point it becomes less important.
If you say a RB will not succeed because he cannot pass block, it does not follow that a different RB is guaranteed success because he is great at pass blocking.
30%-40% are reasonable yardage market shares. The 15.5% that Dobson put up is what is so concerning.
Xue
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
Point taken, but EBF never said anything about QBs.
Where are the dominant WRs that don't have elite measurables?
I think the best current player example someone has come up with in terms of bad measurables and production is Antonio Brown. And I for one don't think Antonio Brown qualifies as elite or as you put it a stud.
Let's look at Harvin for example. 74th percentile or better in the following:
Vertical Jump
Bench Press
40 Yard Dash
20 Yard Dash
10 Yard Dash
The only thing where Bailey is at that level is the 20 yard shuttle (82%ile) where I don't see a stat for Harvin, he also had 66th percentile 3 cone speed. So he is quick. He is also below the 50th percentile in those measures that Harvin was above the 74th percentile in (no listed time for 20 yd).
Cobb had 72nd percentile 40 speed and 77th percentile 20 yd speed. Maybe he is the fast but not quick version of Bailey.
Shanahanigans
Footballguy
This is what I don't like about your guys' argument. You don't have to be elite or a stud to be of value in fantasy. Antonio Brown holds a good amount of fantasy value without being "elite", and so can Bailey. I don't think many people are touting him as the next AJ Green, but more as a guy who is a good value at his current ADP in dynasty drafts.
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
In short time this debate will be a distant memory. Much of why many NFL clubs are whiffing on players more and more is because they are relying on more and more stats, measurables and what some old school football guys will call 'underwear olympics'
I go case by case, and Bailey is miles ahead of Boyce in everything that is of importance on a football field at this point. Some players just have the savvy and wear with all as a rookie. To me he's the most 'Pro Ready' of this class. As far as an overall skill set, he's tough to match. Route running, hands, ball tracking, body control and getting off press.
Rod Smith is another old school WR who was basically a walk on with avg measurables. There are hits and misses with every skill set and the current 6'3 220 WR's that run a 4.5 are enticing but same goes for them. For every successful one, there are 100 who fail.
I go case by case, and Bailey is miles ahead of Boyce in everything that is of importance on a football field at this point. Some players just have the savvy and wear with all as a rookie. To me he's the most 'Pro Ready' of this class. As far as an overall skill set, he's tough to match. Route running, hands, ball tracking, body control and getting off press.
Rod Smith is another old school WR who was basically a walk on with avg measurables. There are hits and misses with every skill set and the current 6'3 220 WR's that run a 4.5 are enticing but same goes for them. For every successful one, there are 100 who fail.
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Is this true though? Let's look at your top 20 WRs by the round they were taken in the NFL draft:
Round Count1 92 33 34 15 06 17 0UFA 3That looks like NFL teams are nailing it to me.
This is fair, if you will notice I was responding specifically to someone who used the term stud.
FUBAR
Footballguy
This depends on your league setup. If 24-36 WRs start any given week in your league, you'll want to take a greater chance on a higher ceiling player vs. lower floor than if your league starts 48-60. The goal should generally be to get "fantasy relevant" players.
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If your goal is just to compete, then that would probably work. If your goal is to build a dynasty, then I can't see why you would want to spend any time watching players develop into WR3s.
Invictus~Bronte
Footballguy
Nailing it? Rounds 2 and 3 are 2 players ahead of round 6 and even with UFA. First round looks like the only useful barometer
Borden
Footballguy
I think both players situations are being over looked a little too much.
Bailey:
-At 5'10" he is facing more of an up hill battle since, I think most of agree, that the slot position on the Rams is likely to be filled by Austin. This leaves Bailey to battle out a position for one of the outside spots.
-Bradford might not ever turn into the superstar that he was drafted to be but he should be a solid starter for the Rams for the foreseeable future.
-He is used to playing a support role for Austin and is also used to working routes with each other and should already have a natural chemistry with the Rams projected #1 offensive weapon.
Boyce:
- Has a solid shot of taking over the slot position given Amendola's injury issues and that he is younger and currently cheaper.
- How long does Brady have left? He will be 36 to start this season. You can argue Mallets skills but either way he isn't Brady. When Brady leaves want happens to this offense?
This isn't meant to be judging of either of the players just something that I would like to hear discussed by all you in this thread that seem to be more in the know than myself.
Bailey:
-At 5'10" he is facing more of an up hill battle since, I think most of agree, that the slot position on the Rams is likely to be filled by Austin. This leaves Bailey to battle out a position for one of the outside spots.
-Bradford might not ever turn into the superstar that he was drafted to be but he should be a solid starter for the Rams for the foreseeable future.
-He is used to playing a support role for Austin and is also used to working routes with each other and should already have a natural chemistry with the Rams projected #1 offensive weapon.
Boyce:
- Has a solid shot of taking over the slot position given Amendola's injury issues and that he is younger and currently cheaper.
- How long does Brady have left? He will be 36 to start this season. You can argue Mallets skills but either way he isn't Brady. When Brady leaves want happens to this offense?
This isn't meant to be judging of either of the players just something that I would like to hear discussed by all you in this thread that seem to be more in the know than myself.
2 of the 3 UFA are Texas Tech slot receivers that currently play with top 10 QBs of all-time. The 3rd is also mostly a slot gut that plays with a QB that has already won 2 super bowls. So yes,it does appear that the NFL is not good at identifying slot WRs, or maybe they just don't value them highly because they can find good ones late.
You say rounds 2 and 3 are 2 players ahead of round 6, that is underselling it where the overselling version would be to say they are 300% of round 6. To me this isn't the most interesting part.
75% of the top 20 are coming from the first 3 rounds. The remainder are slot guys, from non-BCS schools or both.
ETA: Generally, this applies to Boyce as much as Bailey. Though I do think all of the potential upside Boyce has is as a slot guy.
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Based on the majority opinion, I way overdrafted Bailey in two different 16 team leagues, taking him in the late first both times. Call me crazy, and biased from watching WVU on Fox seems like every week, but I just like him. A 5'10" guy with average speed getting 25 TDs in college caught my eye. Now he's going to a team with his teammate to run a similar offense. Maybe I overdrafted, but I'm trusting my gut on this one, the same feeling I got when I drafted Wes Welker in 2007. I'm not expecting Welker-like numbers, but since it seems like the height/weight/speed guys, especially ones that aren't knuckleheads, are in high demand but short supply, I'll buy a competent WR2/3 while waiting 3+ years for guys like Da'Rick Rogers to get his s*** together.
I will say that the risk/reward ratio changes a bit in a 16 team league. If you are top 48 all of the sudden you are a WR3 in a 16 team league. On a relative basis, hitting singles becomes a better proposition than always swinging for upside.
EBF
Footballguy
I've posted this several other times this offseason, but it's worth repeating:
People obsess over production and skills, but the list above suggest that a receiver's raw physical talent plays a big role in determining his upside. You just don't see a lot of mediocre athletes becoming superstars at the WR position. There have been a few notable exceptions like Anquan Boldin and Chad Johnson in the past decade, but even Boldin had elite size with his 28.9 BMI and Johnson was a guy who played far more explosive than he tested. Even if you include those guys, they represent a small minority of the total elite #1 type of receivers in the game.
This is not to say that measurables are the only thing that matters or that every workout warrior is going to be superstar. Don't confuse necessary for sufficient. You have to be tall to play center in the NBA. Not everyone who's tall can play center in the NBA though. Likewise, you have to have special physical qualities to be a high end #1 WR in the NFL. However, not every WR prospect who tests well is going to become a great pro. I wouldn't take a UDFA like Mark Harrison over a high 2nd round pick like Robert Woods just because he tested better.
However, in the case of two players with a similar draft position and outlook, I'll usually favor the elite athlete over the modestly talented overachiever. Boyce and Bailey were only picked 10 spots apart. The difference is so minor that it's pretty much negligible. Here's how they stack up physically using the numbers from above:
Stedman Bailey - 27.5 (4.46 - 34.5" - 9'9")
Josh Boyce - 28.6 (4.34 - 34" - 10'11")
Boyce is a much more gifted athlete. Bailey has pretty good weight for his height and his 40 time is solid, but it's worth pointing out that NFL.com has his combine time as a 4.52 (and Boyce at a 4.38). For whatever reason Draft Scout's 40 times aren't consistent with NFL.com's numbers this year. You can decide for yourself who to believe. Either way, Boyce is significantly faster. Their verticals are both disappointing. Bailey is better, but only by half an inch. Boyce blew him away in the long jump, with an elite 10'11" mark compared to a below average 9'9" jump. Boyce is also bigger and heavier. I don't emphasize bench press and the three cone drill quite as much, but Boyce trumped Bailey in those drills as well. He did twice as many reps on the bench. He had the 3rd best WR time in the three cone drill compared to the 8th best for Bailey. Overall, Boyce ranked in the top 5 at his position in 5 of 7 drills at the combine. Bailey ranked in the top 5 in exactly none. So you're talking about a borderline freakish athlete vs. a completely pedestrian athlete.
Having said all that, there are numerous successful NFL WRs who aren't incredible workout warriors. Guys like Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, Lance Moore, Steve Johnson, and Mike Williams come to mind. Personally, I don't think any of these guys are situation-proof elite #1 NFL receivers though. They're good receivers who have thrived when thrust into favorable situations. Johnson has benefited from Buffalo's lack of viable alternatives at WR (he gets a lot of targets by default). Guys like Decker, Nelson, Moore, and Welker have only been relevant with elite quarterbacks passing them the ball. I think this is about the best case scenario for Bailey. He will never be a superstar in the NFL, but if he pans out and the stars align, he can potentially become a top 20-30 WR in FF. That's his realistic best case scenario though. With Bradford looking pretty mediocre and Austin/Givens already on the roster to siphon targets, I don't think this situation looks promising enough to elevate an average talent like Bailey to weekly relevance.
Boyce has warts of his own. He's not quite as tall as you'd like, he doesn't have a great catch radius, and his vertical leap is a bit lower than you'd like to see. He's not an elite prospect either, but he has rare athletic tools with his 28.6 BMI/4.3 speed/10'11" broad jump/6.68s three cone time. That package of speed/strength/quickness is going to make him a tough cover in the NFL. He might not ever become a superstar either, but he seems to have a much higher ceiling than someone like Bailey. He also goes to a better team with a thin WR depth chart and a HoF lock at QB. To me, this is an easy decision.
This paints a pretty clear picture. With few exceptions, the situation-proof superstar NFL WRs test very well in workouts. They have size/speed/explosiveness that show up in the drills. Every player on this list had at least a 10' broad jump. All but one had at least a 36" vertical. 4.52 was the slowest 40 time. The averages for all of those drills are significantly better. It's also worth pointing out that the 28-29 BMI range is the most well represented in this sample. In other words, heavy receivers dominate.
People obsess over production and skills, but the list above suggest that a receiver's raw physical talent plays a big role in determining his upside. You just don't see a lot of mediocre athletes becoming superstars at the WR position. There have been a few notable exceptions like Anquan Boldin and Chad Johnson in the past decade, but even Boldin had elite size with his 28.9 BMI and Johnson was a guy who played far more explosive than he tested. Even if you include those guys, they represent a small minority of the total elite #1 type of receivers in the game.
This is not to say that measurables are the only thing that matters or that every workout warrior is going to be superstar. Don't confuse necessary for sufficient. You have to be tall to play center in the NBA. Not everyone who's tall can play center in the NBA though. Likewise, you have to have special physical qualities to be a high end #1 WR in the NFL. However, not every WR prospect who tests well is going to become a great pro. I wouldn't take a UDFA like Mark Harrison over a high 2nd round pick like Robert Woods just because he tested better.
However, in the case of two players with a similar draft position and outlook, I'll usually favor the elite athlete over the modestly talented overachiever. Boyce and Bailey were only picked 10 spots apart. The difference is so minor that it's pretty much negligible. Here's how they stack up physically using the numbers from above:
Stedman Bailey - 27.5 (4.46 - 34.5" - 9'9")
Josh Boyce - 28.6 (4.34 - 34" - 10'11")
Boyce is a much more gifted athlete. Bailey has pretty good weight for his height and his 40 time is solid, but it's worth pointing out that NFL.com has his combine time as a 4.52 (and Boyce at a 4.38). For whatever reason Draft Scout's 40 times aren't consistent with NFL.com's numbers this year. You can decide for yourself who to believe. Either way, Boyce is significantly faster. Their verticals are both disappointing. Bailey is better, but only by half an inch. Boyce blew him away in the long jump, with an elite 10'11" mark compared to a below average 9'9" jump. Boyce is also bigger and heavier. I don't emphasize bench press and the three cone drill quite as much, but Boyce trumped Bailey in those drills as well. He did twice as many reps on the bench. He had the 3rd best WR time in the three cone drill compared to the 8th best for Bailey. Overall, Boyce ranked in the top 5 at his position in 5 of 7 drills at the combine. Bailey ranked in the top 5 in exactly none. So you're talking about a borderline freakish athlete vs. a completely pedestrian athlete.
Having said all that, there are numerous successful NFL WRs who aren't incredible workout warriors. Guys like Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, Lance Moore, Steve Johnson, and Mike Williams come to mind. Personally, I don't think any of these guys are situation-proof elite #1 NFL receivers though. They're good receivers who have thrived when thrust into favorable situations. Johnson has benefited from Buffalo's lack of viable alternatives at WR (he gets a lot of targets by default). Guys like Decker, Nelson, Moore, and Welker have only been relevant with elite quarterbacks passing them the ball. I think this is about the best case scenario for Bailey. He will never be a superstar in the NFL, but if he pans out and the stars align, he can potentially become a top 20-30 WR in FF. That's his realistic best case scenario though. With Bradford looking pretty mediocre and Austin/Givens already on the roster to siphon targets, I don't think this situation looks promising enough to elevate an average talent like Bailey to weekly relevance.
Boyce has warts of his own. He's not quite as tall as you'd like, he doesn't have a great catch radius, and his vertical leap is a bit lower than you'd like to see. He's not an elite prospect either, but he has rare athletic tools with his 28.6 BMI/4.3 speed/10'11" broad jump/6.68s three cone time. That package of speed/strength/quickness is going to make him a tough cover in the NFL. He might not ever become a superstar either, but he seems to have a much higher ceiling than someone like Bailey. He also goes to a better team with a thin WR depth chart and a HoF lock at QB. To me, this is an easy decision.
Whitney26
Footballguy
I've been a huge Bailey and Boyce fan for a couple of years. I've been able to pick them both up in a couple of drafts. I have an extensive database of WR metrics, and I thought it would be interesting to compare their numbers to some other WR's that have similar characteristics. Since I put this together in 30 minutes or so, I haven't had time to really break it down. Basically, it includes 80 guys and I sorted each category into a separate tab according to:
1 - Overall Athleticsm (CtRa)
2 - Long & Short Agility (CoDa)
3 - Explosion (ExP)
4 - Long Speed (Lspd)
5 - Power (Pwr)
I'll break it down further when I find the time. I'm always open to ideas. In case you're wondering, this is sorted by the physical metrics only......no production is used.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AotIVo4gpWF8dFJudk9CeHlmNzJ1Ym9Wd2xqLUZtalE&gid=37
After a quick glance, Boyce, according to the physical metrics, is the superior prospect. He scores in the top 10 in every category besides explosion.....average vertical. He finishes in the top 3 in Long Speed and Power.
1 - Overall Athleticsm (CtRa)
2 - Long & Short Agility (CoDa)
3 - Explosion (ExP)
4 - Long Speed (Lspd)
5 - Power (Pwr)
I'll break it down further when I find the time. I'm always open to ideas. In case you're wondering, this is sorted by the physical metrics only......no production is used.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AotIVo4gpWF8dFJudk9CeHlmNzJ1Ym9Wd2xqLUZtalE&gid=37
After a quick glance, Boyce, according to the physical metrics, is the superior prospect. He scores in the top 10 in every category besides explosion.....average vertical. He finishes in the top 3 in Long Speed and Power.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ok I think I understand your point that a college WR should produce at a certain threshold of yardage and once they pass that point the extra is superfluous. If one set that benchmark at 700 yards lets say then which Dobson for 3 seasons was hovering just under while Boyce cleared that mark in his last 2 seasons as being the difference. I hardly consider that a fair or useful way to evaluate their production but unless I am mistaken that seems to be your point right?
Here are both WR with target data from 2012
Josh Boyce WR 6'0, 203 Jr. *** (5.5) 96 61 998 63.5% 28.5% 64.6% 9.4 Aaron Dobson WR-X 6'3, 204 Sr. ** (5.4) 76 49 668 64.5% 19.7% 57.9% 8.1 So Boyce had 20 more targets than Dobson. So Dobson with 20 more targets at Dobsons catch rate of 64.5% that would mean 12.9 more catches for a total of 61.9 catches which is exactly how many catches Boyce had with that number of targets. Boyce does have an advantage of 1.3 yards/target.
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2012-marshall-thundering-herd-football-statistical-profile
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2012-tcu-horned-frogs-football-statistical-profile
ZWK
Footballguy
I like them both (once Terrance Williams & Dobson are off the board) and have them neck-and-neck in my rankings. I'm also not too worried about the WR "logjam" in either city. If there is an established starter in front of a rookie then that is something to worry about. But if there is a competition between a bunch of prospects and cheap veterans then I'm not so worried. A rookie WR drafted in the 3rd or 4th round is not just going to be handed a starting spot and a major role in the offense; he is going to have to compete for it. So let them go out and compete - with Dobson, Quick, Jenkins, Givens, Austin, and the other guys. Odds are, most of those guys aren't going to amount to much. So if Bailey or Boyce is good, he'll probably be able to win a significant role pretty quickly.
It's worth keeping in mind that odds aren't that great on either of them. As EBF points out, most top NFL WRs have very good size and athleticism - better than Bailey's, certainly (though there are a few exceptions, like Antonio Brown, who is about the same size as Bailey and had worse combine numbers). But it's also true that most top NFL WRs had very good college numbers - better than Boyce's, certainly (though there are a few exceptions, like Steve Johnson, whose college numbers were similar to Boyce's). And it is also true that most top NFL WRs are taken early in the draft - earlier than Bailey or Boyce (I count 3 on EBF's list of 17 who were taken after pick 90, though the number grows if you include guys on the level of Steve Johnson & Antonio Brown).
It's worth keeping in mind that odds aren't that great on either of them. As EBF points out, most top NFL WRs have very good size and athleticism - better than Bailey's, certainly (though there are a few exceptions, like Antonio Brown, who is about the same size as Bailey and had worse combine numbers). But it's also true that most top NFL WRs had very good college numbers - better than Boyce's, certainly (though there are a few exceptions, like Steve Johnson, whose college numbers were similar to Boyce's). And it is also true that most top NFL WRs are taken early in the draft - earlier than Bailey or Boyce (I count 3 on EBF's list of 17 who were taken after pick 90, though the number grows if you include guys on the level of Steve Johnson & Antonio Brown).
