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Brady, Brees, and Rodgers: Which Is Most Likely To Get Back to Normal? (1 Viewer)

Which of These 3 QBs is Most Likely to Get Back to Their Usual Level of Production

  • Tom Brady

    Votes: 2 2.2%
  • Drew Brees

    Votes: 47 52.2%
  • Aaron Rodgers

    Votes: 41 45.6%

  • Total voters
    90

Tango

Footballguy
Three traditional QB studs have gotten off to slow(ish) to outright-slow starts.

Drew Brees currently 9th QB in my TV-heavy league

Cons:

  • The offense is not right yet. The obvious thing to mention is the lack of Sproles
  • The pass-catching-corps (ex-Graham) has played among the worst in the league so far. Colston has been very hit or miss, Stills has been non-existent, Meachem looks tired
  • The O-line struggled yesterday against the Vikes base pass rush & blitzes and also was spotty at-best against the Browns base pass rush & blitzes.
  • The run play selection % has increased markedly, but the running hasnt been particularly effective except at the goalline; which matters most.
  • Back to Sproles. His "replacement", Pierre Thomas, is perhaps the slowest HB in the NFL. I beg you to watch yesterday's tape and argue that point. He is just a body in the passing game; nothing more
  • Brees is doing his usual dancing in the pocket, but hasnt been able to turn the plays he extends into completions; and certainly not long completions. He has just 1x 40+ ball so far this year and just 6x 20+ completions; both stats being the worst among the Top 10 QBs.
Pros:

  • 2 of 3 have been on the road and the schedule started to ease up yesterday with then only road-game worrisome game being Oct 30 in Carolina
  • The 1-2 record, plus the Falcons & Panthers' starts mean that the Saints are likely to be playing hard through week 17
  • Jimmy Graham
  • Brandin Cooks has shown flashes and could develop nicely
Aaron Rodgers currently 11th QB

Cons:

  • Sputtering running game resulting in 3rd and longs; though that never seemed to slow him down before
  • O-line injuries, but what team isnt suffering there? Very similar to the Saints yesterday, the Packers couldnt handle the base pass rush of their opponent so Rodgers (and Brees) never really had time to look downfield
  • Lack of production by Cobb. I havent watched the Pack close enough to figure out what is going on there
  • Only 5x 20+ completions and just 1x 40+; both the lowest or tied for lowest (with Brees!) among the Top 11
Pros:

  • Played 3 decent defenses the first 3 weeks and 2 of 3 on the road
  • 1.0% interception percentage
  • May adjust the gameplan to become more passing-oriented early in the game on 1st
  • Odds of regression to the mean seem highest among the 3 QBs here. More of the pieces are in place.
Tom Brady (Ive watched him least among these three) 31st QB currently

Cons:

  • Usual WR problems. Is it Thompkins or Dobson? What is wrong with Amendola? Edelman banged up.
  • O-line seems to be as bad as it has been during Brady's tenure
Pros:

  • Gronk
  • Someone please fill this out as I havent seen enough of the Pats to know
So, which of these three marquis QBs is most likely to get back to business as usual?
 
The Packers WRs aren't getting open. Cobb in particular doesn't appear to be the same player, and they're having difficulty getting Lacy going. Lacy doesn't look like the same guy this year. Looks more tentative. Also, they seem to miss James Jones and they're not getting much from their TEs. Rodgers' accuracy has been a little off as well, but I expect that will return. But that offense is lost right now.

I haven't seen any of the Saints games.

In the Patriots games I've seen it looks like the offensive line is struggling to pass protect, and pressure has always been the key to stopping Brady. Plus he might be starting to decline at age 37.

:2cents:

 
Brees almost avg 300 yds these 3 games, whats wrong?

Brady is getting old and regressing, coaching staff trying to take pressure off his plate

Rodgers has a terrible O-line

 
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Brees almost avg 300 yds these 3 games, whats wrong?

Brady is getting old and regressing, coaching staff trying to take pressure off his plate

Rodgers has a terrible O-line
Among a few things for Brees this stands out: he has 1x 40+ ball so far this year and 6x 20+ completions; both stats being the worst among the Top 10 QBs.

If we had a stat for 25+ yard pass attempts, then I'd bet he'd be at the bottom there as well.

 
Brees passing totals in Weeks 11-13 last year were (305, 278, 147). 2 of 3 of these were on the road (243 ypg avg)

Brees passing total in Week 5-8 (week 7 was bye) were (288, 236, 332). 2 of 3 of these were on the road. (285 ypg avg)

Brees finished 2013 with 5,162 and 39 TD's

Brees week 1 through 3 this year are (333, 237, 293). (average of 287 ypg). 2 of 3 of these were on the road.

Brees will be fine. Brees lights it up at home and is just decent on the road, that's his MO.

Graham, Ben Watson, Colston, Stills, Cooks, Morgan, Meachem. That is tremendous talent, just need some games at home for it to gel.

I think Brady or Rodgers both would take a pay cut to be able to get an opportunity to throw the ball around to that ensemble of receivers.

Thomas is not really a replacement for Sproles. Thomas has had a defined role in the NO offense for years now, both before Sproles came in and while Sproles was there. He's never been advertised to be fast, that's not what he is relied on for. He's a sure handed guy who can pick up tough 3rd and shorts, and an above average pass blocking RB.

Don't look for Brady to have a big passing year, as the Pats can adjust and find a lot of ways to win games without mega passing numbers.

Rodgers . . . .jury is out.

 
Brees passing totals in Weeks 11-13 last year were (305, 278, 147). 2 of 3 of these were on the road (243 ypg avg)

Brees passing total in Week 5-8 (week 7 was bye) were (288, 236, 332). 2 of 3 of these were on the road. (285 ypg avg)

Brees finished 2013 with 5,162 and 39 TD's

Brees week 1 through 3 this year are (333, 237, 293). (average of 287 ypg). 2 of 3 of these were on the road.

Brees will be fine. Brees lights it up at home and is just decent on the road, that's his MO.
Tend to agree on this overall assessment...

Graham, Ben Watson, Colston, Stills, Cooks, Morgan, Meachem. That is tremendous talent, just need some games at home for it to gel.

I think Brady or Rodgers both would take a pay cut to be able to get an opportunity to throw the ball around to that ensemble of receivers.
Not true for Rodgers IMO, but true for Brady.

Thomas is not really a replacement for Sproles. Thomas has had a defined role in the NO offense for years now, both before Sproles came in and while Sproles was there. He's never been advertised to be fast, that's not what he is relied on for. He's a sure handed guy who can pick up tough 3rd and shorts, and an above average pass blocking RB.
I have to assume you missed those two 3rd and shorts yesterday for Thomas where he looked far slower than usual and didnt covnert.

I wish I could say it was just two plays and that Im cherry-picking, but it wasnt. Perhaps he was banged up somehow? But if he wasnt and that was the real Pierre Thomas...then I will go out on a short limb and say that this will be his last year in the NFL; even if they dont sign Ingram.

 
Rodgers, obviously. He is younger than the other two and still has a ton of talent to throw to.

Brees will most likely be fine.

Brady has declined the last year or so, and when you combine that with his receivers not being as good anymore, his drop-off is likely to continue, although he is still obviously capable of stepping up at the end of games or having the occasional big game.

 
Brees has more talent to work with overall.

Rogers o-line is a mess. James Jones had issues at times but he was a threat in a way Boykin never was and Adams isn't yet. Quarless is just a guy, and I'm baffled why they throw so little to Lacey or Starks.

Brady may never be a top ten QB again.

 
Thomas is not really a replacement for Sproles. Thomas has had a defined role in the NO offense for years now, both before Sproles came in and while Sproles was there. He's never been advertised to be fast, that's not what he is relied on for. He's a sure handed guy who can pick up tough 3rd and shorts, and an above average pass blocking RB.
I have to assume you missed those two 3rd and shorts yesterday for Thomas where he looked far slower than usual and didnt covnert.

I wish I could say it was just two plays and that Im cherry-picking, but it wasnt. Perhaps he was banged up somehow? But if he wasnt and that was the real Pierre Thomas...then I will go out on a short limb and say that this will be his last year in the NFL; even if they dont sign Ingram.
I'll admit I haven't seen the Week 3 Saints game yet. I was basing my comments on Thomas more from years of watching the role he has played in that offense. I don't doubt for a second he has lost some speed, but he didn't have a lot to begin with.

To predict this is his final year in the league is somewhat bold. He is likely still better at picking up the blitz than any other RB on the roster, and that is an important skill in that offense, and one that Payton values a lot.

 
Rodgers. Brees has an injury he's not disclosing. Brady is no longer an elite QB and shouldn't be in this conversation.

 
Brady is done. Brees will shine unless he's injured. Rodgers is talented, but not sure about the talent around him. Expected more from him vs. Detroit. I would vote Brees.

 
Pats OLine is a mess. Brady is going to have a Tony Eason type super bowl run despite the issues.

 
If any of these three is going to end up in the top 5 at year's end, my money would be on Brees. Has the schedule and the supporting cast. Rodgers will be OK, and end up as a mid level QB1. Brady isn't likely to continue this level of sucktitude, but he's still a major dissapointment and unlikely to find his way to fantasy QB1 numbers.

All three have and likely will continue to fail to live up to their draft slots, but Brees and Rodgers owners will be ok.

 
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FWIW, the Packers schedule has a lot to do with Rodgers slow start. He's been off no doubt, but I think he's very likely to bounce back to normal Aaron Rodgers numbers going forward.

Seattle, NYJ and DET rank 8,2,1 in team defense so far respectively. That's not an easy way to start the season.

Detroit was putting 6 in the box for large parts of the game, and daring the Packers to run the ball. I haven't rewatched the game, but according to McCarthy, Lacy left a lot of yards on the field. If you don't make a team pay for playing you with only 6 in the box, it's gonna make for a long day in the passing game. I think that is the long and short of what happened. If you believe Lacy will be better going forward, then so will Rodgers.

 
FWIW, the Packers schedule has a lot to do with Rodgers slow start. He's been off no doubt, but I think he's very likely to bounce back to normal Aaron Rodgers numbers going forward.

Seattle, NYJ and DET rank 8,2,1 in team defense so far respectively. That's not an easy way to start the season.

Detroit was putting 6 in the box for large parts of the game, and daring the Packers to run the ball. I haven't rewatched the game, but according to McCarthy, Lacy left a lot of yards on the field. If you don't make a team pay for playing you with only 6 in the box, it's gonna make for a long day in the passing game. I think that is the long and short of what happened. If you believe Lacy will be better going forward, then so will Rodgers.
On the bolded, not only that, but against the lowest ranked team on that list, the game plan was for Rodgers to not use the entire field, not throwing a single pass at Sherman. That will make a defense better than its ranking.

I agree with the consensus that Brees and Rodgers will be fine, and Brady won't.

ETA: Voting so far:

Drew Brees (36 votes [52.94%])
Aaron Rodgers (32 votes [47.06%])
Tom Brady (0 votes [0.00%])

I voted Rodgers.

 
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Saints have been short on deep passes

"The Saints lead the NFL in third-down conversions (61.5 percent). And Brees ranks first in completion percentage (70.9 percent) among all quarterbacks who have started every game.

But only two of those completed passes have traveled at least 20 yards in the air. Brees is 2-of-6 for 66 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions on those deep throws."

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=new-orleans-saints&id=9938&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2FzA7awunOiq%22%7D

 

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