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Brandon Jacobs question? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Stashy
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redman
Footballguy
I know LJ. LJ is a good friend of mine. And Jacobs is no LJ.
kentric
Footballguy
Couldn't disagree with you more. This isn't as far out in left field as the guy who thinks that Tiki won't be top 20, but its in the general category. Jacobs still needs to hit the hole lower. The Giants need to continue to address that issue and the problem he had holding onto the ball (which he appears to have done better on later in the season). If both of those items are addressed, then he has the chance of becoming a decent back. Is he as good as Tiki? No way. Will Tiki get 90% of the Giants' carries? Most assuredly.
H.K.
Footballguy
FYI - Tiki got 82.7% of the carries last year. No way that number increases. That is a huge workload.Tiki will see far fewer that his 357 carries from last season. Jacobs will get much more work this year. Guaranteed.
Tong Po
Footballguy
Well I'm guessing it'll take about 100 less carries and about 25 less catches for him to rank outside the Top 20 RBS... as you preditced.
you're replying with last season stuff, he has worked on those with the G-men and Eddie George. Check out giants.com or BBI he is far improved
H.K.
Footballguy
What if his TD's dip from 11 to five or six?
Tong Po
Footballguy
Point is... ALL of these things would have to happen for him to not finish in the Top 20. He would need to see WAY less carries, have WAY less receptions, and about HALF as many touchdowns. Is this what you are forecasting for Tiki Barber? If so... then I would have to seriously disagree with you.
H.K.
Footballguy
That puts you in the majority around here.You probably also make the assumption that Barber stays healthy. I do not.
Tong Po
Footballguy
Any chance I can get you to list the 20 RBs that will finish higher than Tiki Barber?
H.K.
Footballguy
PPR no particular order & off the top of my head:LT, SA, LJ, Portis, SJax, R.Bown, J.Lewis, Dunn, Maroney, T.Jones, Parker, James, Rhodes, C.Williams, Westbrook, M.Bell, A.Green, McGahee, Jordan, Gore.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
While everyone is entitled to their opinions I see some serious flaws in your predictions. On the other hand, I'll give you props for having the cajones to make such a call.
H.K.
Footballguy
Not sure how posting 20 RB's names anonymously on an FF board takes cajones, but thanks anyway.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
Well your name on the post pretty much insures we all know who you are. 
Were you being facetious in projecting all these guys over Tiki this year? If not it's either cajones or pure obtuseness!
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H.K.
Footballguy
It was a contextual statement. It takes cajones to invest your life savings to start a business, or go to Iraq, or run into a burning building to save a child.Comparatively, the downside of making an innaccurate projection on this board is pretty low risk.
Tong Po
Footballguy
I believe so. He's been saying that Tiki will finish outside the Top 20. I asked who would finish ahead of Tiki and I got 20 random names. Now it's possible that a couple of these players may surprise and finish ahead of Barber... but highly unlikely that they all will. The moral of the story? H.K. is down on Tiki Barber more than most people. I suppose I'll move along now.
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mightyeskimo
Footballguy
Of course those situations are different. No one in their right mind would say fantasy football cajones and war/money/Iraq cajones are the same thing. Obviously I'm referring to the former.It was a contextual statement. It takes cajones to invest your life savings to start a business, or go to Iraq, or run into a burning building to save a child.Comparatively, the downside of making an innaccurate projection on this board is pretty low risk.
H.K.
Footballguy
The names weren't random, I had a few more I could have added too. I think Tiki will bust this year. Plenty of historical facts to back it up based on perfromance by RB's that are 31 + in age, as well as RB's with career workloads in his range that hit the wall, etc. Also, I think Jacobs will get a lot of work in an attempt to keep Tiki healthy because Brandon has shown he can be an every down RB. Coughlin no longer needs to rely on one running back anymore, and I doubt he will. As a result, Barber's numbers, all of them, will be greatly reduced.
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
Forgot to mention that as a Brandon Jacobs owner I hope you're right!
Koya
Footballguy
How many times did a non-Tiki RB carry the ball for the Giants last year? Between Jacobs, Ward and some others, there were a good number of touches I bet.
Now, assume 90%+ of those touches go to Jacobs, while he eats into Tiki's touches marginally (no more than 10%). Jacobs gets a good fill and some carries, and Tiki has a chance to approach his usual exceptional production health permitting.
Point 2 - Having a good backup is a GOOD thing. If you are LUCKY enough to have Tiki on your team (who is in great shape, a "young" 31 you can say and check his total yardage and tds over the last half decade) then having a very good and possible FF great backup behind him is a bonus. Should tiki go down, you have someone viable to help you fill that huge void.
Point 3 - EVERY FREAKIN YEAR people get down on Tiki. He does nothing but produce. A lot.
Now, assume 90%+ of those touches go to Jacobs, while he eats into Tiki's touches marginally (no more than 10%). Jacobs gets a good fill and some carries, and Tiki has a chance to approach his usual exceptional production health permitting.
Point 2 - Having a good backup is a GOOD thing. If you are LUCKY enough to have Tiki on your team (who is in great shape, a "young" 31 you can say and check his total yardage and tds over the last half decade) then having a very good and possible FF great backup behind him is a bonus. Should tiki go down, you have someone viable to help you fill that huge void.
Point 3 - EVERY FREAKIN YEAR people get down on Tiki. He does nothing but produce. A lot.
CalBear
Footballguy
Are cajones those banana-leaf wrapped cornmeal things?
Koya
Footballguy
I stand somewhat corrected. Tiki had 357 Rushes last year, and another 54 Catches.
All other backs had just over 70, combined, split between Ward and Jacobs - not as much as I had thought.
Even so, increase that to 100-120, and all Jacobs, which would cut Tiki's rushes to about 315-325 rushes or so. That doesnt impact his catches at all, as I could see him going for 60 or so as he usually does. So, we lose 30-50 rushes, or about 120-200 yards, which even at the high end is less than 10% of Tiki's yardage.
But once again, I can't reiterate enough, every year Tiki drops too far.
All other backs had just over 70, combined, split between Ward and Jacobs - not as much as I had thought.
Even so, increase that to 100-120, and all Jacobs, which would cut Tiki's rushes to about 315-325 rushes or so. That doesnt impact his catches at all, as I could see him going for 60 or so as he usually does. So, we lose 30-50 rushes, or about 120-200 yards, which even at the high end is less than 10% of Tiki's yardage.
But once again, I can't reiterate enough, every year Tiki drops too far.
H.K.
Footballguy
Giants 2005 RB Touches break down:RB carriesBarber 357 (83%)Team 74Total 431RB ReceptsBarber 54 (96%)Team 2Total 56Barber had 84% of all RB touches last season. Do you really think Barber will see anything close to that workload after Jacobs has had a year to learn the system and how he has performed with the starters against starting defenses this year?
Koya
Footballguy
See my post above.So he wont have 2400 yards. Tiki will only be able to get 2200. Or, dare I say, 2100. Again, health permitting.ETA... those lost yards will be rushes. If anything, I could see Tikis recepts going up 5-10.
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meanjoegreen
Footballguy
You do it on purpose, at least you did last year. I can't take anything you say seriously, since last year your whole song and dance about Tiki was just BS. Why should anybody believe you aren't yanking chains this year again about Tiki? Strange games you play.
H.K.
Footballguy
Beacuse this year I mean it.
kupcho1
Footballguy
H.K. = has kojones
H.K.
Footballguy
I thought it was for "Hail Kupcho1"....H.K. = has kojones
TheFanatic
Footballguy
And sooner or later you will be right. What's to say it's not this year? I don't know. I know I grabbed Jacobs late in the initial dynasty draft I had in May. Doesn't cost me anything but a roster spot to sit on the guy and see if something happens. If Tiki misses any time this year the kid will get a good long look. What he does with that look will be up to him. I think there's a chance that he could be the future there at RB. I don't know if it's a strong chance but I took a gamble on the kid....H.K. said:
The Jerk
Footballguy
Let's look at some actual numbers concerning the dropoff needed just for Tiki to fall outside of the top 10 RBs:
In 2005, the #10 RB scored just over 200 FP (FBG style).
In ppg, the #10 RB scored 14.12 ppg (x 16 = 226 points). As you can see, a few RBs could not stay healthy throughout the course of the season. Still, let's take the average of these two values, 213 points.
Tiki had 2390 combined yards last year. A reduction of 25% across the board would see him at 1797 yards, or just shy of 180 points.
Tiki had 11 TDs last year, or 66 points. Cut that total in half and you have 33 points.
Combine the two totals and you have 213 points, likely a top 10 RB.
My conclusion is that 2005 likely was Tiki's career year and chances are he will decline some in 2006. However, Tiki can see his yardage total drop by a quarter and his TD total cut in half and STILL be a top 10 RB. That's a pretty good safety net.
In 2005, the #10 RB scored just over 200 FP (FBG style).
In ppg, the #10 RB scored 14.12 ppg (x 16 = 226 points). As you can see, a few RBs could not stay healthy throughout the course of the season. Still, let's take the average of these two values, 213 points.
Tiki had 2390 combined yards last year. A reduction of 25% across the board would see him at 1797 yards, or just shy of 180 points.
Tiki had 11 TDs last year, or 66 points. Cut that total in half and you have 33 points.
Combine the two totals and you have 213 points, likely a top 10 RB.
My conclusion is that 2005 likely was Tiki's career year and chances are he will decline some in 2006. However, Tiki can see his yardage total drop by a quarter and his TD total cut in half and STILL be a top 10 RB. That's a pretty good safety net.
The Jerk
Footballguy
As to Tiki's workload... (recycled from previous threads)
Barber has missed only two of his past 128 games and six out of 144 for his career.
While I think chronological age does matter, I think workload matters even more.
Contrast Barber with James and Tomlinson.
Chronological age as of September 2006:
Barber 31 yr 5 mo
James 28 yr 1 mo
LT 27 yr 2 mo
Combined number of regular season rushes and receptions:
James 2544 over 96 games (26.50 touches per game)
Barber 2417 over 138 games (17.52 touches per game)
LT 2044 over 79 games (25.87 touches per game)
Another way to look at it is that Barber has only had the punishing workload of a full feature back for the past four seasons:
Barber's touches:
1997-2001 629 rushes and 284 receptions in 74 games (12.34 touches per game)
2002-2005 1260 rushes and 244 receptions in 64 games (23.50 touches per game)
Finally, consider that 2005 was Barber's busiest year.
In 16 games, 357 rushes and 54 receptions = 411 touches (25.69 touches per game)
So even in Barber's busiest single season, he averaged fewer touches per game than both Edge and LT have FOR THEIR ENTIRE CAREER.
Any player can get hurt, but it's stats like these that suggest Barber is a young 31 (and that Edge is an old 28).
Adding Portis to the mix...
25 years 0 months
1399 touches in 60 games (23.32 touches per game)
Another way of looking at this is while Tiki is considerably older in terms of chronological age, in the five seasons prior to Portis' arrival in 2002, Tiki only had half the workload (12.34 touches per game) of a "workhorse" running back.
Since Portis arrived in the NFL:
Portis has 1258 rushes and 141 receptions in 60 games (23.32 touches per game)
Barber has 1260 rushes and 244 receptions in 64 games (23.50 touches per game)
Which running back played all 64 regular sesaon games from 2002-2005?
Old Man Barber
Which running back missed four regular sesaon games?
Young Pup Portis
(NOTE: All stats taken from FBG's player pages. My spreadsheet calculations could include errors.)
Barber has missed only two of his past 128 games and six out of 144 for his career.
While I think chronological age does matter, I think workload matters even more.
Contrast Barber with James and Tomlinson.
Chronological age as of September 2006:
Barber 31 yr 5 mo
James 28 yr 1 mo
LT 27 yr 2 mo
Combined number of regular season rushes and receptions:
James 2544 over 96 games (26.50 touches per game)
Barber 2417 over 138 games (17.52 touches per game)
LT 2044 over 79 games (25.87 touches per game)
Another way to look at it is that Barber has only had the punishing workload of a full feature back for the past four seasons:
Barber's touches:
1997-2001 629 rushes and 284 receptions in 74 games (12.34 touches per game)
2002-2005 1260 rushes and 244 receptions in 64 games (23.50 touches per game)
Finally, consider that 2005 was Barber's busiest year.
In 16 games, 357 rushes and 54 receptions = 411 touches (25.69 touches per game)
So even in Barber's busiest single season, he averaged fewer touches per game than both Edge and LT have FOR THEIR ENTIRE CAREER.
Any player can get hurt, but it's stats like these that suggest Barber is a young 31 (and that Edge is an old 28).
Adding Portis to the mix...
25 years 0 months
1399 touches in 60 games (23.32 touches per game)
Another way of looking at this is while Tiki is considerably older in terms of chronological age, in the five seasons prior to Portis' arrival in 2002, Tiki only had half the workload (12.34 touches per game) of a "workhorse" running back.
Since Portis arrived in the NFL:
Portis has 1258 rushes and 141 receptions in 60 games (23.32 touches per game)
Barber has 1260 rushes and 244 receptions in 64 games (23.50 touches per game)
Which running back played all 64 regular sesaon games from 2002-2005?
Old Man Barber
Which running back missed four regular sesaon games?
Young Pup Portis
(NOTE: All stats taken from FBG's player pages. My spreadsheet calculations could include errors.)
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I don't understand why it's so outlandish to believe that a RB will plumet down the rankings after having a career season.
I am going to go into the minority here and agree with HK.
I think if Tiki gets hurt he will not finish in the top 20. Even if he doesn't get hurt I don't see him finishing in the top 15. HK makes some very valid points, while no one has been able to come back and refute them.
What stands out to me most is the stats that Tiki received 83% or so of the carries last season... he is 31 years old... coming off of a career season.
There is a much younger RB waiting in the wings who has come along very nicely. Yes, Tiki is talented, but to say that he'll get more than 83% of the carries is just ignorant of the inevitable. I'd be surprised if he got over 80% of the carries, and I'll be surprised if he stays healthy. I think it's just that time.
I give HK credit for putting himself out there, but after reading everything- no one has given any evidence as to why Tiki will repeat last year's stats other than "Tiki is good"
I am going to go into the minority here and agree with HK.
I think if Tiki gets hurt he will not finish in the top 20. Even if he doesn't get hurt I don't see him finishing in the top 15. HK makes some very valid points, while no one has been able to come back and refute them.
What stands out to me most is the stats that Tiki received 83% or so of the carries last season... he is 31 years old... coming off of a career season.
There is a much younger RB waiting in the wings who has come along very nicely. Yes, Tiki is talented, but to say that he'll get more than 83% of the carries is just ignorant of the inevitable. I'd be surprised if he got over 80% of the carries, and I'll be surprised if he stays healthy. I think it's just that time.
I give HK credit for putting himself out there, but after reading everything- no one has given any evidence as to why Tiki will repeat last year's stats other than "Tiki is good"
H.K.
Footballguy
Koya
Footballguy
Say tiki gets 75% of the carries and thos additional 8%, plus the D. Ward carries go to Jacobs - in fact, say it is a 70/30 split even for carries... you do the math.You tell me if that means that tiki drops out of the top 15 - because he doesnt even come close. Every year Tiki drops in the rankings. Every year he goes for over 2000 total yards and 10 TDs. What more proof do you want? HK makes an assumption based upon very little then extrapolates this assumption into meaning a lot. For those of us that watch the Giants every day, we know what Tiki is to this team, and to think he will get less than 70% of the carries unless he gets hurt is ridiculous.HK Doesnt have cojones here. He is merely playing the contrarian - with very little fact to go on. But then again, people seem to do this with tiki every year, and someone gets him at a great value because of it.
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