need2know said:
Someone will reach for him in my drafts. He will have some big games but will be inconsistent fighting for targets behind obj. Pass for me
Let's flesh this out some.
2016 - NYG 597 attempts, OBJ 169 targets (28.3%)
2015 - NYG 615 attempts, OBJ 158 targets (25.7%)
2014 - NYG 599 attempts, OBJ 130 targets (21.7%)
In those seasons, guys like Rueben Randle had 127 targets and Larry Donnell had 92. There's plenty leftover for Marshall. The Giants were Bottom 3 in the league in rushing yards, rushing TD, and ypc last season. They are again going to have to move the ball through the air.
People have a tendency to want to allocate last year's targets the same and then see what the new guy gets from the scraps and leftovers. I beg to differ. The targets will go to OBJ and Marshall and everyone else will get the leftovers. I doubt a rookie TE is going to take a ton of targets away from a player that has had six 100 catch seasons.
Assuming OBJ stays healthy and out of trouble (FAR from a given for either of those), if we give OBJ 10 targets a game (160 total) and Marshall 8 targets a game (128), that adds up to 288. Based on 600 attempts, that still leaves 312 targets for Shephard, Engram, Vereen, and role players.
Using Marshall's career averages for catch%, ypr, and TD%, that would put Marshall in line for around 80 catches, 1,000 yards, and 8 TD. That's 228 fantasy points in PPR leagues. In 2016, that would have ranked as WR15. AT MFL, Marshall currently has an ADP of WR34 in PPR drafts.
I don't think projecting Marshall for 128 targets is an outrageous number. Given that Shepard is recovering from an ankle injury, Vereen is coming back from multiple surgeries, and rookie TE's typically struggle, Marshall may be in line for even more targets than I just spelled out.
All this pretty much aligns with my position I posted earlier (borderline fantasy WR1 and solid WR2 numbers).