Break Down of DENVERs passing game (1 Viewer)

[numberSE7EN]

Last year the Broncos passed for 2995 yards. Cutler started 5 games and averaged 200.2 passing yards a game in those 5 games. Over 16 games that translates to 3203 yards. That's if Cutler averages the same passing yds per game, I don't see how it does not increase. I think 3300 is a good base number to work with for Cutler. So where do those 3300 yds go? They can't all go to Javon Walker...

Last year this is how the passing yardage broke down...

Out of 2995 yards and 256 catches:

Wide Receivers had:

150 catches for 2092 yards

70% of the yards and 58% of the catches

Tight Ends had:

43 catches for 518 yards

17% of the yards and 17% of the catches

Running Backs had:

63 catches for 385 yards

13% of the yards and 25% of the catches

This is what has changed in the Denver offense...

QBs: Jay Cutler is the man and will see every snap unless injured. Patrick Ramsey is the back up and a decent one

WRs: Javon Walker was the #1 last year and will be the #1 receiving target again.

Rod Smith is recovering from hip surgery and is a big ?, but sadly I think his days are numbered

Brandon Marshall came on late last season and should push for the #2 spot

Brandon Stokley signed as a FA and should be the slot receiver or even see time at #2 if Marshall and Smith falter.

David Kirkus, David Terrel and Qunicy Morgan are deep on the depth chart as well

TEs: Tony Scheffler is recovering from a broken foot, but he and Cutler showed great chemisty late last season.

Daniel Grahm signed as a FA

(I am not sure how Graham will be used and how much a healthy Scheffler will cut into Grahams #s, but together they form an above average target for Cutler)

Vet Stephen Alexander and Colonel Mustard are on the rosters as well

RBs: Travis Henry was brought in to be the MAN, Henry had 18 catches for 78yds last year in TEN

Mike Bell should get a few carries a game and had 20 catches last year.

Cecil Sapp and Kyle Johnson should also figure into the mix.

Using the same percentages as last year...

If Cutler throws for 3300 yards and 282 completions:

The WRs should gain 2300yds and 164 catches

The TEs should gain 561yds and 48 catches

The RBs should gain 439yds and 70 catches

Cutler threw 9TDs in 5 games last year which translates to 28TDs over 16 games, which I think is more than he will have this year. I have a feeling DEN will be scoring a lot of rushing TDs this year. 23-25TDs is what I am thinking with 12-16INTs for Cutler.

So for Projections:

Javon Walker 82 catches for 1200 yards and 9 tds

Brandon Marshal 41 catches for 700 yards and 6 tds

Rod Smith/Brandon Stokley 35 catches for 400 yards and 2 tds

Tony Scheffler 28 catches for 350 yards 4tds

Daniel Graham 20 catches for 212 yards 1td

RBs get the rest with 70 catches for 439 yards and 2-3tds

Just a note:

This is the break down for weekly team leaders in receiving yards for the Broncos:

Walker 11 times

Schefler 2

Marshall 2

Smith 1

Leading your team in rec yds 11 times is good, I am seeing big things out of Walker this year.

Comments good and bad are welcome...

Edit to add David Kirkus to depth chart.

 

[duaneok66]

Ok Broncos homers,

any news on Kircus . . . is he still on the roster???

 

[numberSE7EN]

Kirkus is still there, but he is behind Walker, Marshall, Smith, and i would say Stokley.

 

[duaneok66]

Last year the Broncos passed for 2995 yards. Cutler started 5 games and averaged 200.2 passing yards a game in those 5 games. Over 16 games that translates to 3203 yards. That's if Cutler averages the same passing yds per game, I don't see how it does not increase. I think 3300 is a good base number to work with for Cutler. So where do those 3300 yds go? They can't all go to Javon Walker...

Last year this is how the passing yardage broke down...

Out of 2995 yards and 256 catches:

Wide Receivers had:

150 catches for 2092 yards

70% of the yards and 58% of the catches

Tight Ends had:

43 catches for 518 yards

17% of the yards and 17% of the catches

Running Backs had:

63 catches for 385 yards

13% of the yards and 25% of the catches

This is what has changed in the Denver offense...

QBs: Jay Cutler is the man and will see every snap unless injured. Patrick Ramsey is the back up and a decent one

WRs: Javon Walker was the #1 last year and will be the #1 receiving target again.

Rod Smith is recovering from hip surgery and is a big ?, but sadly I think his days are numbered

Brandon Marshall came on late last season and should push for the #2 spot

Brandon Stokley signed as a FA and should be the slot receiver or even see time at #2 if Marshall and Smith falter.

David Terrel and Qunicy Morgan are deep on the depth chart as well

TEs: Tony Scheffler is recovering from a broken foot, but he and Cutler showed great chemisty late last season.

Daniel Grahm signed as a FA

(I am not sure how Graham will be used and how much a healthy Scheffler will cut into Grahams #s, but together they form an above average target for Cutler)

Vet Stephen Alexander and Colonel Mustard are on the rosters as well

RBs: Travis Henry was brought in to be the MAN, Henry had 18 catches for 78yds last year in TEN

Mike Bell should get a few carries a game and had 20 catches last year.

Cecil Sapp and Kyle Johnson should also figure into the mix.

Using the same percentages as last year...

If Cutler throws for 3300 yards and 282 completions:

The WRs should gain 2300yds and 164 catches

The TEs should gain 561yds and 48 catches

The RBs should gain 439yds and 70 catches

Cutler threw 9TDs in 5 games last year which translates to 28TDs over 16 games, which I think is more than he will have this year. I have a feeling DEN will be scoring a lot of rushing TDs this year. 23-25TDs is what I am thinking with 12-16INTs for Cutler.

So for Projections:

Javon Walker 82 catches for 1200 yards and 9 tds

Brandon Marshal 41 catches for 700 yards and 6 tds

Rod Smith/Brandon Stokley 35 catches for 400 yards and 2 tds

Tony Scheffler 28 catches for 350 yards 4tds

Daniel Graham 20 catches for 212 yards 1td

RBs get the rest with 70 catches for 439 yards and 2-3tds

Just a note:

This is the break down for weekly team leaders in receiving yards for the Broncos:

Walker 11 times

Schefler 2

Marshall 2

Smith 1

Leading your team in rec yds 11 times is good, I am seeing big things out of Walker this year.

Comments good and bad are welcome...

good post, and you have a lot of interesting data, however witha) Smith's health

b) Marshall's health

it's extremely difficult to project numbers for WR2 and WR3

. . .

 

[numberSE7EN]

Agreed, mostly I looked at the data to reinforce my belief the Walker will have a big year. Which in my eyes it looks like he will. Health permitting of course.

 

[duaneok66]

Kircus is still there, but he is behind Walker, Marshall, Smith, and i would say Stokley.

thanks, I just now saw it in the original post . . .

 

[Hammerage]

Javon Walker 82 catches for 1200 yards and 9 tds

Brandon Marshal 41 catches for 700 yards and 6 tds

Rod Smith/Brandon Stokley 35 catches for 400 yards and 2 tds

Tony Scheffler 28 catches for 350 yards 4tds

Daniel Graham 20 catches for 212 yards 1td

I think if Sheffler can come back at full strenth for the start of the season that Cutler will lean on him a bit more than that. He had 4 TD's over the final 4 games last year and 14 rec. See his receptions a bit higher with maybe 6 TD. The big IF is his health.

 

[numberSE7EN]

Javon Walker 82 catches for 1200 yards and 9 tds

Brandon Marshal 41 catches for 700 yards and 6 tds

Rod Smith/Brandon Stokley 35 catches for 400 yards and 2 tds

Tony Scheffler 28 catches for 350 yards 4tds

Daniel Graham 20 catches for 212 yards 1td

I think if Sheffler can come back at full strenth for the start of the season that Cutler will lean on him a bit more than that. He had 4 TD's over the final 4 games last year and 14 rec. See his receptions a bit higher with maybe 6 TD. The big IF is his health.

I agree the big question is Tony's health. Plus if he misses the first few games and Graham does well, it may take longer for Tony to get an increased roll. Late last year Jay and Tony did show a lot of chemistry and I personally hope it continues, but we will see when Scheffler actually gets on the field.

 

[H.K.]

So for Projections:

Javon Walker 82 catches for 1200 yards and 9 tds

Just a note:

This is the break down for weekly team leaders in receiving yards for the Broncos:

Walker 11 times

Schefler 2

Marshall 2

Smith 1

Leading your team in rec yds 11 times is good, I am seeing big things out of Walker this year.

I'd look a little closer at the numbers regarding Walker if I were you. Consider the following:1) With Cutler at QB, Walker averaged a paltry to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (this extrapolates to 57 recepts for 736 & 6 scores over 16 games)

2) Now the team has added Stokley and Graham to further eat into Javon's numbers

3) With Cutler at QB, Walker led the team in receiving yardage only once in five games (Scheffler and Marshall led 2 each in Cutler's starts). However, he led the team 10 times out of 11 with Jake.

Cutler = FF death to Javon.

 

[numberSE7EN]

So for Projections:

Javon Walker 82 catches for 1200 yards and 9 tds

Just a note:

This is the break down for weekly team leaders in receiving yards for the Broncos:

Walker 11 times

Schefler 2

Marshall 2

Smith 1

Leading your team in rec yds 11 times is good, I am seeing big things out of Walker this year.

I'd look a little closer at the numbers regarding Walker if I were you. Consider the following:1) With Cutler at QB, Walker averaged a paltry to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (this extrapolates to 57 recepts for 736 & 6 scores over 16 games)

2) Now the team has added Stokley and Graham to further eat into Javon's numbers

3) With Cutler at QB, Walker led the team in receiving yardage only once in five games (Scheffler and Marshall led 2 each in Cutler's starts). However, he led the team 10 times out of 11 with Jake.

Cutler = FF death to Javon.

Thats one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is Cutler leaned on Marshall and Scheffler in his 5 starts because that is who he was getting snaps with in pracitce all season, with a full offseason of time spent as the #1 QB i see his chemistry with Walker to greatly improve.

 

[moleculo]

So for Projections:

Javon Walker 82 catches for 1200 yards and 9 tds

Just a note:

This is the break down for weekly team leaders in receiving yards for the Broncos:

Walker 11 times

Schefler 2

Marshall 2

Smith 1

Leading your team in rec yds 11 times is good, I am seeing big things out of Walker this year.

I'd look a little closer at the numbers regarding Walker if I were you. Consider the following:1) With Cutler at QB, Walker averaged a paltry to 3.6 receptions 46 yards receiving and 0.4 TD catches per game (this extrapolates to 57 recepts for 736 & 6 scores over 16 games)

2) Now the team has added Stokley and Graham to further eat into Javon's numbers

3) With Cutler at QB, Walker led the team in receiving yardage only once in five games (Scheffler and Marshall led 2 each in Cutler's starts). However, he led the team 10 times out of 11 with Jake.

Cutler = FF death to Javon.

HK>is there some magic reason that "Cutler = FF death to Javon?" Do you care to explain why this happened, or are you going to stubbornly repeat this?TIA fir not mentioning "statistically impossible".

 

[a_troll00]

I'm really interested to see how the TE situation works out in Denver. Graham was a monster receiver while at CU, I badly wanted the Broncos to draft him. NE drafted him but utilized him more as a blocking TE than as a receiver. Now at Denver, can he live up to the receiving potential he displayed in college?

Then we look at Scheffler. The Cutler-Scheffler express started right away in the preseason. Rumors started swirling that he could be Denver's next Shannon Sharpe. The regular season started and Plummer never really utilized the tight ends. Cutler comes in and the Cutler-Scheffler express rides again. Now Scheffler is coming back from a broken foot, will he be effective this season?

I'm really hoping training camp will give us some insight to this situation. Will one of them dominate the position and become a fantasy stud? Will they split the TE load? Anyways, I'm predicting Graham to be the starter out of the gates being the more effective blocker.

 

[H.K.]

Thats one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is Cutler leaned on Marshall and Scheffler in his 5 starts because that is who he was getting snaps with in pracitce all season, with a full offseason of time spent as the #1 QB i see his chemistry with Walker to greatly improve.

Same can be said for Graham, Stokley, RSmith, etc. which equalizes any potential benefitr to Walker.

 

[numberSE7EN]

Thats one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is Cutler leaned on Marshall and Scheffler in his 5 starts because that is who he was getting snaps with in pracitce all season, with a full offseason of time spent as the #1 QB i see his chemistry with Walker to greatly improve.

Same can be said for Graham, Stokley, RSmith, etc. which equalizes any potential benefitr to Walker.

Except Walker is the #1 WR in the offense and a better reciever than the other people you listed.

 

[H.K.]

HK>is there some magic reason that "Cutler = FF death to Javon?" Do you care to explain why this happened, or are you going to stubbornly repeat this?

Anyone who knows why is guessing...except Cutler or possibly Shanny. But I do know WHAT happened, and everyone is ignoring those facts. Anyone estimating Walker to improve with Cutler this year versus Plummer last year is making a HUGE baseless assumption. When Cutler played, Walker suffered badly. When Plummer played Walker was FF gold. Cutler to Walker 2007 would have to go off the charts to equal 2006 Plummer to Walker numbers, yet people still project numbers better than when Plummer was there. A second year QB with a known proclivity to spread the ball around on a team that added receiving options in the off-season is not a recipe for success to the incumbent WR1.People hope Cutler will throw to Walker more than he did last season, but there are zero signs that indicate he will.....and hope is not a strategy which I subscribe.

 

[H.K.]

Thats one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is Cutler leaned on Marshall and Scheffler in his 5 starts because that is who he was getting snaps with in pracitce all season, with a full offseason of time spent as the #1 QB i see his chemistry with Walker to greatly improve.

Same can be said for Graham, Stokley, RSmith, etc. which equalizes any potential benefitr to Walker.

Except Walker is the #1 WR in the offense and a better reciever than the other people you listed.

He was last year, too. How did that work out for him?

 

[Peyton Marino]

HK>is there some magic reason that "Cutler = FF death to Javon?" Do you care to explain why this happened, or are you going to stubbornly repeat this?

Anyone who knows why is guessing...except Cutler or possibly Shanny. But I do know WHAT happened, and everyone is ignoring those facts. Anyone estimating Walker to improve with Cutler this year versus Plummer last year is making a HUGE baseless assumption. When Cutler played, Walker suffered badly. When Plummer played Walker was FF gold. Cutler to Walker 2007 would have to go off the charts to equal 2006 Plummer to Walker numbers, yet people still project numbers better than when Plummer was there. A second year QB with a known proclivity to spread the ball around on a team that added receiving options in the off-season is not a recipe for success to the incumbent WR1.People hope Cutler will throw to Walker more than he did last season, but there are zero signs that indicate he will.....and hope is not a strategy which I subscribe.

Walker had 2 out of 5 usable FF games last season with Cutler as QB as opposed to 5 out of 11 with Plummer. A usable FF game is 10 points or more. Walker is not going to all of a sudden fall off the map because some new QB is taking over. Once he develops a rapport with Cutler he'll be fine.

 

[LBH]

Thats one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is Cutler leaned on Marshall and Scheffler in his 5 starts because that is who he was getting snaps with in pracitce all season, with a full offseason of time spent as the #1 QB i see his chemistry with Walker to greatly improve.

Same can be said for Graham, Stokley, RSmith, etc. which equalizes any potential benefitr to Walker.

Except Walker is the #1 WR in the offense and a better reciever than the other people you listed.

He was last year, too. How did that work out for him?

I agree with the original poster. an entire offseason of working together should greatly improve chemistry between Cutler and Walker. Walker will be the #1 option in the passing game so even though the chemistry should improve all around, it will be of greatest benefit to Walker imo

 

[Peyton Marino]

Another interesting data set shows that Walker scored 4, 7, 30, 6 and 7 points with Plummer's first 5 weeks at QB (first 5 weeks of the season).

Walker scored 1, 5, 14, 11 and 2 in Cutler's first 5 weeks.

you can spin the numbers however you want, but in no way does it mean the "FF death of Javon Walker.

 

[H.K.]

Walker had 2 out of 5 usable FF games last season with Cutler as QB as opposed to 5 out of 11 with Plummer. A usable FF game is 10 points or more.

Walker is not going to all of a sudden fall off the map because some new QB is taking over. Once he develops a rapport with Cutler he'll be fine.

Or another way to look at it from a fantasy football perspective in PPR formats:-with Plummer, Walker averaged 17.3 PPG, extrapolated over 16 games that's on pace for 276.8 FF points, good for WR #3 in 2006

-with Cutler he averaged 10.6 PPG, extrapolated over 16 games that's on pace for WR # 33 in 2006

40% drop in production with Cutler, caused Walker to fall out of the top 5 and all the way out of starter status.

Color me skeptical that Walker will do better with Cutler this season than he did last year with Plummer. He'd have to finish as WR #2 in PPR to do so.

 

[H.K.]

Another interesting data set shows that Walker scored 4, 7, 30, 6 and 7 points with Plummer's first 5 weeks at QB (first 5 weeks of the season). Walker scored 1, 5, 14, 11 and 2 in Cutler's first 5 weeks. you can spin the numbers however you want, but in no way does it mean the "FF death of Javon Walker.

54 points compared to 33...That's a 40% drop in production, changing the scoring system doesn't change the outcome in this scenario.

 

[numberSE7EN]

Walker had 2 out of 5 usable FF games last season with Cutler as QB as opposed to 5 out of 11 with Plummer. A usable FF game is 10 points or more.

Walker is not going to all of a sudden fall off the map because some new QB is taking over. Once he develops a rapport with Cutler he'll be fine.

Or another way to look at it from a fantasy football perspective in PPR formats:-with Plummer, Walker averaged 17.3 PPG, extrapolated over 16 games that's on pace for 276.8 FF points, good for WR #3 in 2006

-with Cutler he averaged 10.6 PPG, extrapolated over 16 games that's on pace for WR # 33 in 2006

40% drop in production with Cutler, caused Walker to fall out of the top 5 and all the way out of starter status.

Color me skeptical that Walker will do better with Cutler this season than he did last year with Plummer. He'd have to finish as WR #2 in PPR to do so.

The agrument was never that Walker is 'going to do better than he did last year with Plummer on a PPG basis. The fact is over the whole season Walker did not put up those stats, his production did drop off when Cutler started the last 5 games. If you look at my data i assume that Cutler is going to pass for around 3300 yds and 2300 of those yards are going to go to the WRs. Your argument that Cutler likes to spread the ball around may be vaild, but of those 2300 yds I think Walker is going to get the lions share. As far as TDs, i think that is a lot more of luck/chance, but I feel confident that the yards and catches will come this year.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Walker had 2 out of 5 usable FF games last season with Cutler as QB as opposed to 5 out of 11 with Plummer. A usable FF game is 10 points or more. Walker is not going to all of a sudden fall off the map because some new QB is taking over. Once he develops a rapport with Cutler he'll be fine.

Or another way to look at it from a fantasy football perspective in PPR formats:-with Plummer, Walker averaged 17.3 PPG, extrapolated over 16 games that's on pace for 276.8 FF points, good for WR #3 in 2006

the bulk of these points came in two huge games, one of these games involved a 72 yard TD run which Plummer had no part of. If you want to extrapolate his first 11 games to a 16 game season, ok, but the majority of the guy's games were clunkers. he had a bunch of 7 and 5 point games, a 10 and a 12 point game, and then a 30 and a 43 point game. if you're going to use the ever reliable extrapolation method to predict the rest of Walker's stats, you might want to factor in the huge discrepancy between his top 2 games and his other 9 with Plummer as QB. PPG wise, I don't think he'll be anywhere close to 17 and I don't really think anyone is predicting that. when people say Walker will be better with Cutler than he was with Plummer, this is most likely not what they're saying.

 

[H.K.]

The agrument was never that Walker is 'going to do better than he did last year with Plummer on a PPG basis.

Your numbers are incomplete to do a FF PPG comparison because you did not include rushing stats, but you did project Walker to perform better than with Cutler this year than he did with Plummer last year in two out of three categories.

Receptions increase from 4.6 to 5.1 per game

Receiving yards per game decrease from 77 YPG to 75 YPG

TDs increase from .54 to .56 per game

Bottom line, you project Walker to be better with Cutler this year than Plummer last year.

The fact is over the whole season Walker did not put up those stats, his production did drop off when Cutler started the last 5 games. If you look at my data i assume that Cutler is going to pass for around 3300 yds and 2300 of those yards are going to go to the WRs. Your argument that Cutler likes to spread the ball around may be vaild, but of those 2300 yds I think Walker is going to get the lions share. As far as TDs, i think that is a lot more of luck/chance, but I feel confident that the yards and catches will come this year.

Yeah, you project Walker at 1200, leaving 1100 for the remaining WR's. Last year WR's excluding Walker tallied 1057 yards. I guess if all else holds constant, Stokley is looking at a 43 yard season to hit your projection.

 

[H.K.]

Walker had 2 out of 5 usable FF games last season with Cutler as QB as opposed to 5 out of 11 with Plummer. A usable FF game is 10 points or more.

Walker is not going to all of a sudden fall off the map because some new QB is taking over. Once he develops a rapport with Cutler he'll be fine.

Or another way to look at it from a fantasy football perspective in PPR formats:-with Plummer, Walker averaged 17.3 PPG, extrapolated over 16 games that's on pace for 276.8 FF points, good for WR #3 in 2006

the bulk of these points came in two huge games, one of these games involved a 72 yard TD run which Plummer had no part of. If you want to extrapolate his first 11 games to a 16 game season, ok, but the majority of the guy's games were clunkers. he had a bunch of 7 and 5 point games, a 10 and a 12 point game, and then a 30 and a 43 point game. if you're going to use the ever reliable extrapolation method to predict the rest of Walker's stats, you might want to factor in the huge discrepancy between his top 2 games and his other 9 with Plummer as QB.

PPG wise, I don't think he'll be anywhere close to 17 and I don't really think anyone is predicting that. when people say Walker will be better with Cutler than he was with Plummer, this is most likely not what they're saying.

read my previous post.

 

[moleculo]

HK>is there some magic reason that "Cutler = FF death to Javon?" Do you care to explain why this happened, or are you going to stubbornly repeat this?

Anyone who knows why is guessing...except Cutler or possibly Shanny. But I do know WHAT happened, and everyone is ignoring those facts. Anyone estimating Walker to improve with Cutler this year versus Plummer last year is making a HUGE baseless assumption. When Cutler played, Walker suffered badly. When Plummer played Walker was FF gold. Cutler to Walker 2007 would have to go off the charts to equal 2006 Plummer to Walker numbers, yet people still project numbers better than when Plummer was there. A second year QB with a known proclivity to spread the ball around on a team that added receiving options in the off-season is not a recipe for success to the incumbent WR1.People hope Cutler will throw to Walker more than he did last season, but there are zero signs that indicate he will.....and hope is not a strategy which I subscribe.

any projections are guessing. You drawing conclusions from what happened last year is guessing just as much.In my opinion, here's what happened last year:

1) Javon was the clear focus of the offense. He was definately THE play-maker, and Shanahan did what he could to put the ball in his hands, including WR screens and end-arounds.

2) Plummer focused on Walker. I'm not certain if the level of focus was by design (Shanahan), or Plummer failing to check down.

3) Cutler definately did not focus on Walker to the degree of Plummer. Again, it's not clear if this was by design or if it was Cutler checking down early.

Looking to 2007:

1) IMO Javon will still be the focus of the offense, at least as far as the passing game goes. I also believe that there has been a clear move to strengthen the passing O since the AFCCG vs Pittsburgh - I believe this because of all the personel acquisitions acquisitions over the past 2 years (2 WR's , 1 TE, and 1 QB via draft, 2 vet WR's, 1 TE and 1 QB via trade/FA), Yes, Henry was brought in, but I believe his true role will be to restore balance. Denver will not be a pass first team, they will be close to even in run/pass as they were in 2006.

2) Denver historically has not had any production from WR3. As I've said before, I don't believe that is by design, I believe that it is because of lack of depth beyond WR2 (this goes back to 1989). While this years Broncos have more depth at WR than any team I can remember, it really isn't fair to downgrade JW because of Stokely.

I don't believe it's appropriate to think that JW will be better w/ Cutler than he was w/ Plummer, but it's equally wrong to assume he will perform at the same level in 2007 as he did w/ Cutler in 2006. IMO, the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and if I had a gun to my head, I'd say his performance will be closer to his numbers w/ Plummer.

 

[numberSE7EN]

The agrument was never that Walker is 'going to do better than he did last year with Plummer on a PPG basis.

Your numbers are incomplete to do a FF PPG comparison because you did not include rushing stats, but you did project Walker to perform better than with Cutler this year than he did with Plummer last year in two out of three categories.

Receptions increase from 4.6 to 5.1 per game

Receiving yards per game decrease from 77 YPG to 75 YPG

TDs increase from .54 to .56 per game

Bottom line, you project Walker to be better with Cutler this year than Plummer last year.

The fact is over the whole season Walker did not put up those stats, his production did drop off when Cutler started the last 5 games. If you look at my data i assume that Cutler is going to pass for around 3300 yds and 2300 of those yards are going to go to the WRs. Your argument that Cutler likes to spread the ball around may be vaild, but of those 2300 yds I think Walker is going to get the lions share. As far as TDs, i think that is a lot more of luck/chance, but I feel confident that the yards and catches will come this year.

Yeah, you project Walker at 1200, leaving 1100 for the remaining WR's. Last year WR's excluding Walker tallied 1057 yards. I guess if all else holds constant, Stokley is looking at a 43 yard season to hit your projection.

I Dont think Rod Smith is going to get many recieving yards at all, that is where stokley is going to pick up his yards. Assuming Walker is #1 and Marshall #2, how many yards do you expect from DEN's #3 WR? Especially when they have two TEs worth looks.

 

[H.K.]

I Dont think Rod Smith is going to get many recieving yards at all, that is where stokley is going to pick up his yards. Assuming Walker is #1 and Marshall #2, how many yards do you expect from DEN's #3 WR? Especially when they have two TEs worth looks.

Here are last year's numbersDavid Kircus 187 Brandon Marshall 309Rod Smith 512Javon Walker 1084 Nate Jackson 49WR 3 & 4 had almost 500 yards, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Smith & Stokley have 600+. You've got a healthy Rod Smith and newly acquired Brandon Stokley at only 400 yards combined, I find this highly unlikely.

 

[numberSE7EN]

I Dont think Rod Smith is going to get many recieving yards at all, that is where stokley is going to pick up his yards. Assuming Walker is #1 and Marshall #2, how many yards do you expect from DEN's #3 WR? Especially when they have two TEs worth looks.

Here are last year's numbersDavid Kircus 187

Brandon Marshall 309

Rod Smith 512

Javon Walker 1084

Nate Jackson 49

WR 3 & 4 had almost 500 yards, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Smith & Stokley have 600+.

You've got a healthy Rod Smith and newly acquired Brandon Stokley at only 400 yards combined, I find this highly unlikely.

Rod Smith is far from healthy....Smith Paces Recovery

 

[az_prof]

The assumption in this thread, and I have been guilty of it myself, is that Walker is the undisputed number one because he is the best WR on the roster. Therefore, the numbers that show Marshall excelling when he started and Walker disappearing from the offense must be an abberation that somehow will be rectified as Walker and Cutler "get to know each other."

There is another possibility. What if Marshall is the better player? Crazy? Maybe. But I remember the year Walker broke out in GB and the guy who was "supposed" to be WR1 was Donald Driver. But the fact is that Walker was more talented than Driver. And it could be that Marshall is more talented than Driver. Just an idea to stir the pot and prod the Walker apologists and owners.

 

[Banger]

Since when is a 5 game sample with a rookie QB a significant indicator of anything? Look at Ron Dayne's last 5 games last year. If people are discounting Walker based on the 5 game sample size I would imagine that Scheffler s/b the #1/2 TE this year since he's good for 700 yards and 12-13 tds.

At the end of the day Walker/Cutler will be one of the best big play hookups in the game. Both of their strengths match each other perfectly, Javon being a big play deep threat and Cutler having one of the best guns in the game and Shanny is smart enough to gameplan/exploit it. Sometimes you have to put the stats away and watch the games.

 

[DspSphinx]

Another interesting data set shows that Walker scored 4, 7, 30, 6 and 7 points with Plummer's first 5 weeks at QB (first 5 weeks of the season). Walker scored 1, 5, 14, 11 and 2 in Cutler's first 5 weeks. you can spin the numbers however you want, but in no way does it mean the "FF death of Javon Walker.

54 points compared to 33...That's a 40% drop in production, changing the scoring system doesn't change the outcome in this scenario.

If you are going off of the average per game you must throw out the highest and lowest score for each QB. So with Plummer he averaged 6.67 points per game and with Cutler he averaged 6 pts per game. Not much difference there. Besides, if I remember correctly, his 30 pt (against NE) game had nothing to do with Plummer. He caught a 10 yd comeback pass and made several defenders miss and ran for a long touchdown. It was all Walker and had nothing to do with Plummer (besides the first 10 yards)

 

[duaneok66]

Since when is a 5 game sample with a rookie QB a significant indicator of anything? Look at Ron Dayne's last 5 games last year. If people are discounting Walker based on the 5 game sample size I would imagine that Scheffler s/b the #1/2 TE this year since he's good for 700 yards and 12-13 tds.

At the end of the day Walker/Cutler will be one of the best big play hookups in the game. Both of their strengths match each other perfectly, Javon being a big play deep threat and Cutler having one of the best guns in the game and Shanny is smart enough to gameplan/exploit it. Sometimes you have to put the stats away and watch the games.

good post . . .

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Since when is a 5 game sample with a rookie QB a significant indicator of anything? Look at Ron Dayne's last 5 games last year. If people are discounting Walker based on the 5 game sample size I would imagine that Scheffler s/b the #1/2 TE this year since he's good for 700 yards and 12-13 tds. At the end of the day Walker/Cutler will be one of the best big play hookups in the game. Both of their strengths match each other perfectly, Javon being a big play deep threat and Cutler having one of the best guns in the game and Shanny is smart enough to gameplan/exploit it. Sometimes you have to put the stats away and watch the games.

VERY I don't see Javon Walker putting up top 5 numbers in Cutler's 2nd year.... but he dang sure won't be putting up WR33 numbers. That's lunacy. Javon Walker is a proven commodity. He will be 2 years removed from surgery. He was already good ONE year removed, in a new offense, with subpar QB performance.Javon's ceiling is limited only by Cutler's performance. Javon will not be practically ignored in the passing game. Rod Smith and Brandon Stokely will not cut into his numbers, they simply are no longer good enough. The addition of Graham may have the TEs getting a little bigger piece of the pie, but he's not the 2nd coming of Shannon Sharpe.Walker will be better. Cutler will be better. I see good things for both.

 

[Banger]

Javon's ceiling is limited only by Cutler's performance. Javon will not be practically ignored in the passing game. Rod Smith and Brandon Stokely will not cut into his numbers, they simply are no longer good enough. The addition of Graham may have the TEs getting a little bigger piece of the pie, but he's not the 2nd coming of Shannon Sharpe.Walker will be better. Cutler will be better. I see good things for both.

It's not surprising at all to me that Walker was targeted less in Cutlers few starts. The speed of the game, especially to a rookie QB starting mid-season, is a huge adjustment that cannot be simulated so I would expect that he would look for short quick passes to TE's as safe plays/avoid sacks. As time goes on and he gets more comfortable in the pocket and can effectively go through his progressions the cream will rise to the top and he will use his #1 weapon just like Favre did. Graham/Scheffler/Stokely/etc. are all noise/other options but this offense will be run through Walker receiving the ball/Henry running the ball.