Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Brett Favre Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

Brett Favre has had two outstanding years out of the last three. I think that most would agree and give him a mulligan for his one JET season as he was not well and it just didn't work. His last four years stats are I will consider as I think that they tell a compelling strory of Favre and his legacy.

06 - GB 16 gms 343 of 613 56.0% 3885 yards 6.3 ypa 18 TDs and 18 ints

07 - GB 16 gms 356 of 535 66.5% 4157 yards 7.8 ypa 28 TDs and 15 ints

08 - NYJ 16 gms 343 of 522 65.7% 3472 yards 6.7 ypa 22 TDs and 22 ints

09 - MiN 16 gms 383 of 531 68.4% 4202 yards 7.9 ypa 33 TDs and 7 ints

Favre had spent 16 seasons in Green Bay, starting every game once he was took over as the starting QB in his first season there. He was Green Bay. However, his play seriously slipped in 05 and 06 where he had back to back years with a career low of 6.3 ypa in 06 and 6.4 the year before. The record in 05 fell to 4-12 and although it went back to 8-8 in 06, they failed to make the playoffs. The off-season retirement drama began to tire those life long supporters more and more. It all turned around in 07 as he completed over 66%, the ypa climbed back to 7.8 and the TDs were almost double the ints. The team also improved to 13-3 and won the division, then also won the Divisional playoff, before losing to the Giants 23-20 at home as Favre threw an interception to seal the loss.

HIs renewal process took two complete years and although most felt the old man had lost it in New York, he bounced back well a year ago, completing 68.4% of his passes for the third most yards in his long and distinguished career. HIs TD to interception ration climbed to 4.7:1 and his interceptions were a career low. He amazingly had that spark back and the Vikings had it as a team. I see no reason to doubt that he will not do it again. The risk of drafting him at QB 8 and 62 overall seems well worth the risk now in July and when redraft leagues hit their peak in late August, you will know for sure whether he will play (and he will) or not. He has outstanding weapons in Rice, Harvin, Berrian, Shiancoe, and Peterson and will definitely succeed if he plays.

Brett Favre 16 gms 370 comp 540 att 68.5% 4212 yards 7.8 ypa 28 TDs 13 ints and 30 rushing yards and 1 TD

 

[cr8f]

When does the Favre one hour decision show start?

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Anyone else want to comment or make some projections on Favre?

 

[mikel2014]

When does the Favre one hour decision show start?

That would require him picking a date.

 

[Jason Wood]

So for the sake of this Spotlight, let's assume he's coming back

Last year a lot of people discounted Favre because of his age and struggles in New York. Those who recognized that NY was a function of his shoulder and a different offense, and bet that neither would be an impediment with Minnesota were rewarded with not only a solid fantasy year, but one of Favre's career bests. I rostered Brett in a ton of leagues and would be lying if I said I saw 68% completion, 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and ONLY 7 INTs coming.

This year he's doing another song and dance and has had surgery. Yet his supporting cast returns intact and we know that if there's any QB who is going to start 16 games if he starts 1, it's Favre.

Anyone actively targeting him? Can someone make a case for a meaningful regression? Which QBs would you take him ahead of that the consensus ADP suggests otherwise?

 

[-jb-]

You know, I think the lack of response in this thread is the same thing that's indicative of his current ADP. No one wants to be the first to blink. I base just about everything on when I can get a certain player, and my question about his ADP is whether or not it takes into account the very very very very off-chance that he won't play. I think it does, and believe he will rise up the board once he declares his return...but I have no idea how much. I don't think that his ranking among QBs will change much (perhaps he moves in front of Rivers), but I do believe he'll be drafted earlier in general. If he goes in the fifth, it's probably about right, but I could see a 4th round pick being used to get him this year by a few of my league mates. All that said, it will be interesting to see exactly where he gets drafted as we get closer to kick-off.

The more I think about it, he's kind of a nice back-up plan to those of us who are gunning for Romo. I'm surprised to see guys like Eli and Cutler ahead of him in many projections.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Why does David, Bob and Maurile all have Farve playing 15, 14 and 9 games in their projections on his player page?

Farve will play. I look at Farve like a balloon. It takes a lot of air to blow up a 40 year old balloon, but it was as full as it could be in the NFC Championship game. He was ready to win that game and more than likely go on and beat the Colts as the Vikings looked to me to be the best team in the NFL at the end of last year. However, that balloon popped and it's going to take a lot of time to blow up to get that balloon anywhere near where it was during last year's playoff run. I think he goes for it one more time because of the young WR's, the strong defense, the good offensive line and talented Rb's he's working with.

3900 yards 25 td's with 17int's

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm not sure why I thought Favre's played tailed off in the second half of the season; it didn't.

He averaged 21.2 FP/G, 7.5 Y/A and 8.24 AY/A in the first half of the season, and then 24.0 FP/G, 8.3 Y/A and 8.86 AY/A in the second half.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think age, injuries, and declining skills/decision-making all catch up to Favre this year. He played better than could be expected last year, and this year a lot more things will go wrong.

3500 yds, 20 TD, 19 INT

10 rushing yards, 0 TD

 

[Highlander]

I think age, injuries, and declining skills/decision-making all catch up to Favre this year. He played better than could be expected last year, and this year a lot more things will go wrong.

I've been saying that for 5 years and have yet to be right.

 

[baconisgood]

I think age, injuries, and declining skills/decision-making all catch up to Favre this year. He played better than could be expected last year, and this year a lot more things will go wrong.3500 yds, 20 TD, 19 INT10 rushing yards, 0 TD

You are projecting a 25% decline in production? Man, that is pretty steep.

 

[Gopher State]

4000 yards 34 TD's 8 ints

To many weapons in MN for him to not have another great year

 

[-jb-]

Up.

I still think he's undervalued in the 6th round.

4000 yards, 28 TDs. I'll take him ahead of Cutler, Kolb and Eli.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I think age, injuries, and declining skills/decision-making all catch up to Favre this year. He played better than could be expected last year, and this year a lot more things will go wrong.3500 yds, 20 TD, 19 INT10 rushing yards, 0 TD

I'm actually more worried about the health of the guys around Favre (Rice & Harvin) than Favre himself at this point.Very hard to project knowing what we know right now.

 

[Kenny Powers]

How are people adjusting Favre's stats now that Rice is out half the year??

Before today, I had him at 3800yds, 26tds/13int, 5 300 yard games

Now Im thinking: 3550yds, 23tds/15int, 4 300 yard games

 

[LawFitz]

How are people adjusting Favre's stats now that Rice is out half the year??Before today, I had him at 3800yds, 26tds/13int, 5 300 yard gamesNow Im thinking: 3550yds, 23tds/15int, 4 300 yard games

I think Rice's ability to snag Favre's chucks is really gonna be missed. Even more so than you've made out here. Combine this with Favre's bad ankle and misgivings with Childress and I'm not touching gramps.Vikings wreak of a team looking to nosedive this year. Dark clouds seem to be hovering.

 

[Kenny Powers]

How are people adjusting Favre's stats now that Rice is out half the year??Before today, I had him at 3800yds, 26tds/13int, 5 300 yard gamesNow Im thinking: 3550yds, 23tds/15int, 4 300 yard games

I think Rice's ability to snag Favre's chucks is really gonna be missed. Even more so than you've made out here. Combine this with Favre's bad ankle and misgivings with Childress and I'm not touching gramps.Vikings wreak of a team looking to nosedive this year. Dark clouds seem to be hovering.

I wouldnt be surprised if his numbers were worse than that. Now that I re-evalute, those numbers put him at #18 for me, among Flacco, Smith, Stafford, Palmer, and Roethlisberger - all of which id take over Favre anyway.

 

[Sabertooth]

People forget that Rice was considered a bust before Brett got there. He made Rice what he was, not the other way around. Although I think Favre is a prima donna, there is no denying his ability to make lemonade out of lemons. I don't think his numbers suffer much because of Rice. That isn't to say he won't just slam into the wall this season though. It's coming, only a matter of time (at least it would seem to be coming). But Sidney Rice being out 8 games has very little to do with it.

 

[cr8f]

From Peter King(I know but is this true?)

Brett Favre: He's already taking injections in his wounded ankle.

After his so-so eight series Saturday night on the hard floor of Mall of America Field (I prefer to call it the Metrodome, because that's what we know it to be), Favre went into the trainers' room in the Vikes' locker room and got an injection of lubricant in the left ankle that has three times been operated on to remove loose bodies. "Like a grease fitting,'' he said.

Noted orthopedist Dr. James Andrews did the most recent surgery May 22, with an interested party in the operating theater: Deanna Favre. "They took out a cup full of stuff -- bone and all these other loose bodies,'' Brett Favre said Saturday night. "Deanna watched and told me, 'If you don't feel a lot better, I'll be shocked.''

Favre feels better, but not really that good. He explained the arthroscopic procedure that happened in May and what's happened since. He said Dr. Andrews made two incisions on the top of his left ankle, where the ankle flexes above the foot, and sucked out the loose bodies. He said Dr. Andrews wasn't surprised a significant spur returned when Favre went for a re-exam a month ago -- but he was surprised it happened so fast. The Vikings will attempt to manage the pain the spur brings on, but Favre said he didn't think he'd take any painkillers stronger than Motrin.

"It's catching up with me, all this stuff,'' said Favre, who turns 41 in October.

"I asked you this a year ago -- Do you think you can last the season?''' I said to Favre. "And you said you didn't know. How about now?''

"I don't know. I have no idea, really," he answered. "My ankle just seems to get easier to sprain. I know everyone thinks the New Orleans game [the NFC Championship Game] killed me, but it was bad before then. Now we'll see if I can make it. My mind's telling me one thing, but my body's telling me something else.''

I've said this all along: This ankle thing's a little different that the weariness he felt a year ago. There could come a time where his mobility is so compromised that Favre won't be able to get out of the way of the rush consistently. It wouldn't surprise me if the ankle knocked him out for a few games this year.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writ...l#ixzz0y5dPUYbT

 

[Routilla]

For some reason I just don't think he can make it through the season. The guy has been doing it for so long though, until he is forced to stop we will just have to wait. I guess T Jackson is the #2 there so perhaps he has a little value.

 

[ookook]

I am interested more in PPG than totals at QB, as it is so easy to draft or find a serviceable replacement when someone is clearly out due to injury at that position.

It is funny that some people projecting double or triple the INTs of last season are also projecting it in fewer games due to injuries.

 

[Hipple Long Ware & Peete]

Favre already is getting ankle injectionsPosted by Mike Florio on August 30, 2010 10:56 AM ETAs Vikings quarterback Brett Favre prepares for his 20th and final NFL season (unless it isn't), he's already getting the Tin Man treatment in order to ensure that his ankle will operate properly.Per Peter King of SI.com, Favre has received lubricant injections into the joint. Favre called it a "grease fitting." (Once his birthday comes around, we'll have to start calling him "WD-41.")Favre also told King that, when Dr. James Andrews operated on the ankle in May, "[t]hey took out a cup full of stuff -- bone and all these other loose bodies." Favre's wife observed the proceedings from a Junior Mint-free zone in the gallery. "Deanna watched and told me, 'If you don't feel a lot better, I'll be shocked,'" Favre said.So will he feel a lot better all year?"I don't know. I have no idea, really," Favre told King. "My ankle just seems to get easier to sprain. I know everyone thinks the New Orleans game killed me, but it was bad before then. Now we'll see if I can make it. My mind's telling me one thing, but my body's telling me something else.''Regardless of how it plays out, he has set the table either to be a hero, or to be heroic.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think age, injuries, and declining skills/decision-making all catch up to Favre this year. He played better than could be expected last year, and this year a lot more things will go wrong.3500 yds, 20 TD, 19 INT10 rushing yards, 0 TD

You are projecting a 25% decline in production? Man, that is pretty steep.

Looks like I was way off.

 

[flc735]

i will be dropping him this week and rolling with troy smith and hasselback for my consolation bowl and picking up a prospect for next year in this dynasty. i think he is now on a run heavy team with no good matchups he rest of the year