Bryce Brown anything to see here? (2 Viewers)

[Brewtown]

I like the move by the Bills. Bryce is big and fast and Fred Jackson is at the finish line.

They obviously liked him to go and get him so they will probably want to get him involved.

He played very well two years ago when given the opportunity as a rookie!

 

[Faust]

LeSean McCoy: Bryce Brown will start for Buffalo Bills

 

[lardonastick]

 

[EBF]

They gave up the Stevie Johnson pick for him, which is either a 3rd/4th rounder. So this wasn't a cut price move for a veteran RB. It's actually pretty strong when you look at what veteran backs usually pull in trades. I think it's a very interesting situation. I'm wondering what Brown's equivalent market value would be in rookie picks. Could be a guy to target if he's cheap enough.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

They gave up the Stevie Johnson pick for him, which is either a 3rd/4th rounder. So this wasn't a cut price move for a veteran RB. It's actually pretty strong when you look at what veteran backs usually pull in trades. I think it's a very interesting situation. I'm wondering what Brown's equivalent market value would be in rookie picks. Could be a guy to target if he's cheap enough.

Whatever his price is currently, the time to buy was before this past weekend. Pretty much everyone should be penciling him in for Jackson's role now (at least) by next year at the latest. Which is infinitely more appealing than being stuck behind McCoy.

 

[OrangeJulius]

I think that he is the type of guy that is hard to keep on the bench unless you have all-pro talent in front of him...

A guy that big who can run that fast is rare.

I think that he will shine over the next 3 years in Buffalo!

 

[Sabertooth]

They gave up the Stevie Johnson pick for him, which is either a 3rd/4th rounder. So this wasn't a cut price move for a veteran RB. It's actually pretty strong when you look at what veteran backs usually pull in trades. I think it's a very interesting situation. I'm wondering what Brown's equivalent market value would be in rookie picks. Could be a guy to target if he's cheap enough.

Whatever his price is currently, the time to buy was before this past weekend. Pretty much everyone should be penciling him in for Jackson's role now (at least) by next year at the latest. Which is infinitely more appealing than being stuck behind McCoy.

So who is Shady's handcuff now?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

They gave up the Stevie Johnson pick for him, which is either a 3rd/4th rounder. So this wasn't a cut price move for a veteran RB. It's actually pretty strong when you look at what veteran backs usually pull in trades. I think it's a very interesting situation. I'm wondering what Brown's equivalent market value would be in rookie picks. Could be a guy to target if he's cheap enough.

Whatever his price is currently, the time to buy was before this past weekend. Pretty much everyone should be penciling him in for Jackson's role now (at least) by next year at the latest. Which is infinitely more appealing than being stuck behind McCoy.

So who is Shady's handcuff now?

Polk.

 

[Amused to Death]

They gave up the Stevie Johnson pick for him, which is either a 3rd/4th rounder. So this wasn't a cut price move for a veteran RB. It's actually pretty strong when you look at what veteran backs usually pull in trades. I think it's a very interesting situation. I'm wondering what Brown's equivalent market value would be in rookie picks. Could be a guy to target if he's cheap enough.

Whatever his price is currently, the time to buy was before this past weekend. Pretty much everyone should be penciling him in for Jackson's role now (at least) by next year at the latest. Which is infinitely more appealing than being stuck behind McCoy.

So who is Shady's handcuff now?

Chris Polk had passed Brown on the depth chart last season. Brown needs to stop bouncing everything outside and he can put up nice numbers.

 

[Sabertooth]

Really Polk passed him? Wasn't aware of that. Notebook updated.

 

[EBF]

Really Polk passed him? Wasn't aware of that. Notebook updated.

He "passed" him, but had 11 carries all season compared to 75 for Brown.

It's early in his regime, but my sense is that Chip Kelly is a big "fit" guy who has very specific taste in players and little patience for those who don't fit his ideas. Obviously he didn't love what he had in Brown. IMO Brown is a lot more gifted than Polk though.

Some have speculated that Chip is clearing space for LaMichael James. That's not totally far-fetched given that James may be talking/playing his way out of SF. Time will tell.

 

[Amused to Death]

Really Polk passed him? Wasn't aware of that. Notebook updated.

He "passed" him, but had 11 carries all season compared to 75 for Brown.

It's early in his regime, but my sense is that Chip Kelly is a big "fit" guy who has very specific taste in players and little patience for those who don't fit his ideas. Obviously he didn't love what he had in Brown. IMO Brown is a lot more gifted than Polk though.

Some have speculated that Chip is clearing space for LaMichael James. That's not totally far-fetched given that James may be talking/playing his way out of SF. Time will tell.

Low number of carries for Polk, but it wasn't a surprise Brown got dealt. Kelly seemed to prefer Polk by the end of the season and Brown was seen as not a good fit.

 

[Bayhawks]

Re-read this thread after it was bumped today.

Amazing that some people were actually predicting that Brown was going to be in a 50/50 split with McCoy. Same people that see 3rd, 4th, 5th (and later) round draft picks who are going to supplant legitimate NFL starters.

If you own Brown, find one of these guys and trade him now. Someone is sure to think that Brown is going to supplant one (or both) of FJax and/or Spiller, when in reality, he was a depth pick (based on FJax's age and Spiller's injury last year). I think that, at best (barring 1-2 injuries), Brown becomes the lesser part of a RBBC with Spiller (assuming FJax's age finally catches up to him)

Buffalo had 546 rushing attempts last year, almost 10% more than the 2nd and 3rd place SF and Seattle. Spiller has never had more than about 200 carries in a season (202 and 207 the last two years). Even if he bumps up to ~250, there's still another 250-300 carries in the design of the offense. Fred Jackson is 33 years old. There's room for Brown to have value as Spiller's backup either in 2014 if Fjax is hurt/too old/or gone, and certainly in 2015.

I drafted Bryce in the 20th round of a start up earlier this year, and he's 22 turning 23 in a few days, with 2x by 150+ yard and 2 TD games under his belt. I'd expect him to go somewhere in the 10-15th round range now.

Brown doesn't need to 'supplant' Spiller as a starter to have value... I'd say his value has already jumped a bit due to the trade, but could easily jump more if Fjax goes down in 2014, and certainly in 2015.

Sure, they had 546 rushing attempts last year, IF you include the QB and WR rushes. Since Brown is unlikely to play either QB or WR, it doesn't make much sense to include their totals in this discussion.

With regards to RBs, Spiller had 201 (while dinged/hurt much of the year), FJax had 207, and the rest of the RBs totals 47 (and another 11 receptions).

I don't see Brown getting much more than 75 rushes and 5-10 catches, unless one of the 2 RBs ahead of him get hurt. He is, FF speaking, a handcuff. If you draft him, you are protecting yourself against an injury to the Buff RB(s) that you own, or you are "hoping" for an injury to one of the other two.

Barring injury, Brown doesn't have an FF value, beyond that of an insurance policy/trade bait.

Not a chance Jackson gets 207 carries again this year. It's impossible to say how it al shakes out, but Brown certainly has a reasonable chance to tote the rock 150 times

What, exactly, are you basing this absolute statement on? What quote, insider information, etc tells you that Jackson has no chance to get 207 carries in 2014? Because it seems like your guessing. Because while the chances aren't good, as Lloyd Christmas might say, "you're saying there's a chance."

What is more "reasonable" to expect is for Spiller to get the lion's share of the RB carries (maybe 250), FJax to drop off some, (125-150), and for Brown to pick up the scraps that the other Buff RBs got last year (maybe 75, even though last year, the "other" RBs got less than 50 carries). 150 isn't a reasonable projection for Buffalo's #3 RB, it's triple what they got last year.

While you're correct on calling me out on my "not a chance", I don't see 207 carries for a 33 y.o RB as reasonable (barring injuries to other of course). You seem to have made the same mistake dismissing Brown's chances of picking up 150 carries- which I called a "reasonable chance"- which was meant as more of a ceiling (barring injuries of course) than a projection.

With all three healthy I would expect more along the line of 220 for Spiller and 100 each for Jackson and Brown.

I don't expect FJax to get 207 carries again either, but Spiller will pick up those carries, not Brown.

 

[msommer]

Sneaky move. First reaction is that it can't be any worse for his value than riding the pine in Philly. How many years left on Spiller's deal?

Spiller's deal is essentially up after this year. He has a player option for 2015, but the general feeling is that he'd decline in order to become a FA, but stranger things have happened.

WIth the current salaries Veteran RBs are getting he may be better off taking the option...

 

[Brewtown]

The Bills tried to trade up in the second round to select Ohio State RB Carlos Hyde.

The Bills couldn't make a deal work before the 49ers took Hyde at No. 57 overall, so they settled for a Bryce Brown trade. Regardless, their dogged pursuit of running back help doesn't instill much long-term confidence in C.J. Spiller, who can opt out of his rookie contract after this season. They've likely settled on Spiller as a complementary piece, scrapping the notion of using him as a true feature back. Fred Jackson is 33 years old and in the final year of his deal as well.

Source: buffalobills.com May 14 - 10:01 AM

 

[Snotbubbles]

They gave up the Stevie Johnson pick for him, which is either a 3rd/4th rounder. So this wasn't a cut price move for a veteran RB. It's actually pretty strong when you look at what veteran backs usually pull in trades. I think it's a very interesting situation. I'm wondering what Brown's equivalent market value would be in rookie picks. Could be a guy to target if he's cheap enough.

Whatever his price is currently, the time to buy was before this past weekend. Pretty much everyone should be penciling him in for Jackson's role now (at least) by next year at the latest. Which is infinitely more appealing than being stuck behind McCoy.

So who is Shady's handcuff now?

Polk.

Some combination of Polk and Sproles?

 

[Snotbubbles]

Really Polk passed him? Wasn't aware of that. Notebook updated.

He "passed" him, but had 11 carries all season compared to 75 for Brown.

It's early in his regime, but my sense is that Chip Kelly is a big "fit" guy who has very specific taste in players and little patience for those who don't fit his ideas. Obviously he didn't love what he had in Brown. IMO Brown is a lot more gifted than Polk though.

Some have speculated that Chip is clearing space for LaMichael James. That's not totally far-fetched given that James may be talking/playing his way out of SF. Time will tell.

Brown's biggest problem was he tried to do too much East-West and could never turn the corner. He's much more effective as a North-South runner. Just hit the hole and go. Stop trying to be Shady.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

They gave up the Stevie Johnson pick for him, which is either a 3rd/4th rounder. So this wasn't a cut price move for a veteran RB. It's actually pretty strong when you look at what veteran backs usually pull in trades. I think it's a very interesting situation. I'm wondering what Brown's equivalent market value would be in rookie picks. Could be a guy to target if he's cheap enough.

Whatever his price is currently, the time to buy was before this past weekend. Pretty much everyone should be penciling him in for Jackson's role now (at least) by next year at the latest. Which is infinitely more appealing than being stuck behind McCoy.

So who is Shady's handcuff now?

Polk.

Some combination of Polk and Sproles?

I personally think Sproles' roles will remain pretty constant regardless, but we'll know more in camp, obviously. Even if McCoy gets hurt, I don't see Sproles with more than a handful of carries / game.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

LeSean McCoy: Bryce Brown will start for Buffalo Bills

No disrespect, but McCoy is one of the dumbest tweeters out there.

 

[SelenaCat]

How much is Brown worth in terms of 2014 rookie picks at this point? 3rd rounder? 4th?

 

[EBF]

They basically gave up a 3rd/4th round pick for him. And veterans usually cost less in picks than equivalent talent rookies. To me he's somewhere slightly below Mason and around Hill. 2nd round value sounds about right.

 

[Brewtown]

They basically gave up a 3rd/4th round pick for him. And veterans usually cost less in picks than equivalent talent rookies. To me he's somewhere slightly below Mason and around Hill. 2nd round value sounds about right.

I agree with this...

 

[JetMaxx]

Overpayment

 

[EBF]

Could be. We'll see.

Fred Jackson is ancient and while he had a decent season last year in some respects, there were also some signs of slippage. His game really lacked explosiveness and he was one of the worst NFL backs at breaking long runs. We're talking absolutely bottom of the barrel alongside BJGE and the ghosts of Mendenhall and Ray Rice. I think the Bryce move was mainly about preempting Jackson's collapse and finding someone they can try to pair with Spiller once the old man can't answer the bell any more (which could be as soon as this season?). If it works out really well, he could even be the long-term replacement for CJ.

 

[humpback]

They basically gave up a 3rd/4th round pick for him. And veterans usually cost less in picks than equivalent talent rookies. To me he's somewhere slightly below Mason and around Hill. 2nd round value sounds about right.

Not really. Not that you should only using draft position to value them, but that pick isn't nearly as valuable as what was used on Mason or Hill.

 

[EBF]

Recent RB trades:

Darren Sproles to Philadelphia for a 2014 5th round pick

Trent Richardson to Cleveland for a 2014 1st round pick

Chris Ivory to New York for a 2013 4th round pick (106nd overall)

LeGarrette Blount to New England for Jeff Demps and a 2013 7th round pick

Marshawn Lynch to Seattle for a 2011 4th and a conditional pick that became a 2012 5th

Thomas Jones and the 63rd pick in 2007 for the 37th pick

Thomas Jones was also traded earlier in his career for Marquise Walker, a 2002 third round pick who didn't play a game for the Bucs in his rookie season and didn't survive training camp with Arizona after they acquired him.

There aren't a lot of trades for backs, but when they do happen it's usually a cut-rate deal. Trent Richardson pulled a 1st rounder a year after being the #3 pick in his draft and Clinton Portis reaped a major haul way back in the day when the Skins got him, but in general you don't see teams paying over the odds for a veteran back. It looks like veteran RBs actually come at a discount. Maybe due to salary reasons or simply wearing out their welcome.

In the context of what a veteran back will usually pull in a trade, the Stevie Johnson pick (a conditional 3rd/4th) that the Bills spent on Bryce Brown represents a fairly significant investment. Not in the ballpark of what Richardson or Portis cost, but similar to what Ivory and Lynch cost. That isn't a flyer price. It indicates pretty strong intent. I'd say they must be pretty optimistic that they can get good value out of him to spend that.

Given that veterans tend to pull lower prices in trades than rookies of equivalent talent, I don't think it's a stretch to look at Brown and his conditional 3rd/4th price tag as being roughly on par with a late 2nd/3rd round rookie. Even if you take the most pessimistic stance and say it's no better than a 4th round rookie, that puts him on level pegging with guys like Andre Williams and Devonta Freeman who are going somewhat high in FF leagues. He arguably has a more prototypical FF skill set since he's a 220+ pound back with 4.4 speed and conceivably more upside left in the tank (he's still very young and he has almost no carries in his entire college and NFL career).

You can argue what the price tag means exactly, but the general interpretation seems pretty clear to me. This is a price tag that indicates a pretty high degree of optimism. It's roughly equal to what the Jets paid for Ivory and he was their leading rusher last year.

 

[humpback]

You're forgetting that this is the Bills, who majorly reached for EJ and gave up a ton for Watkins- there was speculation that Brown was going to be cut.

That being said, the pick is either going to be SF's 4th rounder in 2015, or if the Stevie trade turns into SF's 3rd, it would be Buffalo's 4th or 3rd in 2016 (they wouldn't get SF's 3rd in 2015). That's no where near the same value as a 2nd or 3rd round pick in this 2014 draft.

He may be a veteran, but he's one who just turned 23 last week, makes peanuts for a salary, and has less than 200 carries in his career. I don't think that commands much of a "veteran discount".

I don't disagree that the Bills may be optimistic about him, but that doesn't mean a heck of a lot.

 

[Zyphros]

I really like what I've seen from him on the field and am lucky enough to own him in 1 of my leagues. In my other league I've tried to acquire him for the 2.03 in a 10 team league, but was declined only for the reason that the owner wants to see the situation play out more. I can't fault him for that. He likes him just as much as I do and there's only 3RB's in this draft class I would rather have.

 

[Xue]

Overpayment

Bryce Brown is 3 months younger than Terrance West and has already shown NFL ability. West was drafted 3.30. Brown also has less combined college and NFL carries than West did in his final season. Fair deal.

 

[az_prof]

Overpayment

Bryce Brown is 3 months younger than Terrance West and has already shown NFL ability. West was drafted 3.30. Brown also has less combined college and NFL carries than West did in his final season. Fair deal.

Let's say he shows some promise. Why not wait to acquire him? If he starts the year third on the depth chart and gets no carries, by mid season he may be on FA wire or you can get him for chump change. I guess if Spiller gets hurt or Jackson is cut before then, his value will go up, but...it seems like waiting is in order even if you like him.

 

[steveski]

Overpayment

Bryce Brown is 3 months younger than Terrance West and has already shown NFL ability. West was drafted 3.30. Brown also has less combined college and NFL carries than West did in his final season. Fair deal.

Let's say he shows some promise. Why not wait to acquire him? If he starts the year third on the depth chart and gets no carries, by mid season he may be on FA wire or you can get him for chump change. I guess if Spiller gets hurt or Jackson is cut before then, his value will go up, but...it seems like waiting is in order even if you like him.

Are you talking about dynasty or redraft? In dynasty, the hope is that with FJax being 33 and on the last year of his contract and Spiller being able to opt out of his last year, Bryce Brown could be in line for the starting job in 2015.

In redraft, I don't think there's any reason to grab him unless the rosters are really deep. I think he'll get a shot for some playing time this year, but won't be fantasy relevant (startable) unless FJax and/or Spiller get injured or just flat out suck. The chances of one of those 2 guys getting injured or sucking for whatever reason are pretty high, IMO.

 

[humpback]

Overpayment

Bryce Brown is 3 months younger than Terrance West and has already shown NFL ability. West was drafted 3.30. Brown also has less combined college and NFL carries than West did in his final season. Fair deal.

Let's say he shows some promise. Why not wait to acquire him? If he starts the year third on the depth chart and gets no carries, by mid season he may be on FA wire or you can get him for chump change. I guess if Spiller gets hurt or Jackson is cut before then, his value will go up, but...it seems like waiting is in order even if you like him.

I may be wrong here, but I think they're talking about it from an NFL perspective, not FF.

 

[EBF]

Got him at RB45 with the 137th pick of a startup tonight. DLF has him ranked around RB54 currently. Tremendous value there IMO. He went from being in a total logjam in Philly behind McCoy and his fat contract to joining a team whose top two RBs are both scheduled to hit free agency after this season. Despite that, it seems like his market price hasn't really moved since last season. If anything, he might be cheaper now. I get that he had a pretty weak 2013 season apart from one big run, but man there is a lot of upside at a very low price. Seems like an obvious buy to me.

 

[steveski]

Yeah I was offered a 2015 2nd (probably mid) for him but I rejected it. Thought about it for a while though. Like someone said earlier, his problem is going too much East-West. Hopefully it was just a product of trying to be like McCoy and he forgets it and plays to his strengths instead. He is very talented and he's still very young. Hard to not like him where he is being drafted since he is basically the same age as rookies, yet he has proven he CAN do it at a NFL level.

 

[Sabertooth]

Traded for him as a throwin when acquiring McCoy earlier before the trade. I was tickled. His stock shot way up in my opinion. I wouldn't trade him for a mid-2 either. For exactly the reasons steveski outlines.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Got him at RB45 with the 137th pick of a startup tonight. DLF has him ranked around RB54 currently. Tremendous value there IMO. He went from being in a total logjam in Philly behind McCoy and his fat contract to joining a team whose top two RBs are both scheduled to hit free agency after this season. Despite that, it seems like his market price hasn't really moved since last season. If anything, he might be cheaper now. I get that he had a pretty weak 2013 season apart from one big run, but man there is a lot of upside at a very low price. Seems like an obvious buy to me.

Yeah that's a steal IMO. Also pretty surprising -- I like Brown to at least get 1st crack at filling the Fred Jackson role from 2015 (latest) forward, and possibly more if Spiller walks. I've put feelers out in a few leagues where I don't own him, and the asking price has been a 1st +, and I don't think that's unreasonable. I'd buy all day at RB4 / RB5 prices.

 

[EBF]

Got him at RB45 with the 137th pick of a startup tonight. DLF has him ranked around RB54 currently. Tremendous value there IMO. He went from being in a total logjam in Philly behind McCoy and his fat contract to joining a team whose top two RBs are both scheduled to hit free agency after this season. Despite that, it seems like his market price hasn't really moved since last season. If anything, he might be cheaper now. I get that he had a pretty weak 2013 season apart from one big run, but man there is a lot of upside at a very low price. Seems like an obvious buy to me.

Yeah that's a steal IMO. Also pretty surprising -- I like Brown to at least get 1st crack at filling the Fred Jackson role from 2015 (latest) forward, and possibly more if Spiller walks. I've put feelers out in a few leagues where I don't own him, and the asking price has been a 1st +, and I don't think that's unreasonable. I'd buy all day at RB4 / RB5 prices.

Wow, we actually agree on something.

I think he's a guy whose owners value him above his ADP. To me, he's worth a late 1st round rookie pick. Not terribly different in value from someone like Tre Mason. For whatever reason though, the public as a whole isn't excited about him. I think maybe people don't realize that the Bills gave up a conditional 3rd/4th round rookie pick to get him. That is not a cheap price for a RB. If you look ahead a year, there's a pretty clear path for him to at least have a prominent role in a committee and potentially be the outright starter. If it breaks right, he could quite easily be a consensus top 15 dynasty RB in about 12-18 months.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Got him at RB45 with the 137th pick of a startup tonight. DLF has him ranked around RB54 currently. Tremendous value there IMO. He went from being in a total logjam in Philly behind McCoy and his fat contract to joining a team whose top two RBs are both scheduled to hit free agency after this season. Despite that, it seems like his market price hasn't really moved since last season. If anything, he might be cheaper now. I get that he had a pretty weak 2013 season apart from one big run, but man there is a lot of upside at a very low price. Seems like an obvious buy to me.

Yeah that's a steal IMO. Also pretty surprising -- I like Brown to at least get 1st crack at filling the Fred Jackson role from 2015 (latest) forward, and possibly more if Spiller walks. I've put feelers out in a few leagues where I don't own him, and the asking price has been a 1st +, and I don't think that's unreasonable. I'd buy all day at RB4 / RB5 prices.

Wow, we actually agree on something.

I think he's a guy whose owners value him above his ADP. To me, he's worth a late 1st round rookie pick. Not terribly different in value from someone like Tre Mason. For whatever reason though, the public as a whole isn't excited about him. I think maybe people don't realize that the Bills gave up a conditional 3rd/4th round rookie pick to get him. That is not a cheap price for a RB. If you look ahead a year, there's a pretty clear path for him to at least have a prominent role in a committee and potentially be the outright starter. If it breaks right, he could quite easily be a consensus top 15 dynasty RB in about 12-18 months.

I agree with you on specific player eval more often than not -- we just attack the macro stuff from polar opposite perspectives typically.

 

[Sabertooth]

I'll play the odds on Fred Jackson and say he breaks down this season and Bryce gets in there. I bet Bryce has over 125 carries in 2014 with potential for a huge increase a Fred is put out to pasture and Spiller gets paid what he's worth se place like Miami.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Got him at RB45 with the 137th pick of a startup tonight. DLF has him ranked around RB54 currently. Tremendous value there IMO. He went from being in a total logjam in Philly behind McCoy and his fat contract to joining a team whose top two RBs are both scheduled to hit free agency after this season. Despite that, it seems like his market price hasn't really moved since last season. If anything, he might be cheaper now. I get that he had a pretty weak 2013 season apart from one big run, but man there is a lot of upside at a very low price. Seems like an obvious buy to me.

Talent wasn't being used due to Shady and he'd gotten in the coaching doghouse so getting a breath of fresh air is one thing but great point about both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller becoming free agents.

Bills RB Bryce Brown seems to have been forgotten and is flying under radar.

'Could' get opportunity this year but he is also interesting for the longer term per the FA contract status of Jackson/Spiller.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Bryce Brown - RB - Bills

ESPN Bills reporter Mike Rodak believes the team "would like" Bryce Brown to "develop into one of their lead backs."

The Bills gave up a 2015 fourth-rounder that can become a third-rounder for Brown, a relatively high price to pay for a running back. Both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are entering the final years of their contracts. Spiller has injury red flags and may never become a true No. 1, while Jackson is 33 1/2 years old. Brown is 23, has a boatload of running talent, and is entering the league's run-heaviest offense. His Dynasty arrow is pointing straight up.

Source: ESPN.com

Jul 8 - 9:11 AM

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I'll play the odds on Fred Jackson and say he breaks down this season and Bryce gets in there. I bet Bryce has over 125 carries in 2014 with potential for a huge increase a Fred is put out to pasture and Spiller gets paid what he's worth se place like Miami.

Just wait `til BB breaks one, that will be all it takes.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

The point about the Bills interest in trading-up trying to grab RB Carlos Hyde has been glossed over.

The Bills tried to trade up in the second round to select Ohio State RB Carlos Hyde.

The Bills couldn't make a deal work before the 49ers took Hyde at No. 57 overall, so they settled for a Bryce Brown trade. Regardless, their dogged pursuit of running back help doesn't instill much long-term confidence in C.J. Spiller, who can opt out of his rookie contract after this season. They've likely settled on Spiller as a complementary piece, scrapping the notion of using him as a true feature back. Fred Jackson is 33 years old and in the final year of his deal as well.
Source: buffalobills.com May 14 - 10:01 AM

The Bills not being able to pull off that deal and then trading for Bryce is a significant point IMHO.

It means they felt they had a need that they had to fill.

The point over the age of F-Jax and the contract status of both CJ and F-Jax has been mentioned but they both are locked-in for this year and F-Jax has a lengthy history of holding off challengers and he replied in a fiesty tweet to PHI RB LeSean McCoy's tweet about Bryce being the day-1 starter.

10 MayLesean McCoy ✔@CutonDime25
@BryceBrown_34 my boy it's been fun... Good luck with everything and knowing what they got and knowing what they getting lol starter day 1
Fred Jackson ✔@Fred22JacksonFollow

No disrespect to @BryceBrown_34 but @CutonDime25 starter day 1 huh? I think @CJSPILLER and I might wanna bet something on that! #BillsMafia

2:12 PM - 10 May 2014

-------------------------------------------------------
I think that F-Jax and Spiller hold onto the bulk of the carries this year but then age of F-Jax and both of those contracts become a huge issue.

Of the nearly $13 million paid to the entire Bills RB position, F-Jax and CJ eat up over $9 million.

-Spiller makes over 400% more than the average NFL RB and is being paid a top-5 salary.

- Fred Jackson will be 35 years old next year and he's making over $3 million per year.

http://espn.go.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/10769/counting-the-bills-running-backs

Total cap value: $12,988,332
Compared to NFL average: 53.7 percent more
NFL positional rank: 4th

Portion of Bills' total cap number: 9.4 percent

2014 cap numbers:
C.J. Spiller: $5.916 million (5th on Bills, 9th among NFL running backs)
Fred Jackson: $3.85 million (Bills: 9th; NFL: 16th)
Anthony Dixon: $1.016 million (Bills: 30th; NFL: 55th)
Bryce Brown: $570,000 (Bills: tied for 47th; NFL: tied for 102nd)

Average per year:
Spiller: $5.219 million (6th on Bills, 10th among NFL running backs)
Jackson: $4.35 million (Bills: 9th; NFL: 12th)
Dixon: $1.166 million (Bills: 27th; NFL: 45th)
Summers: $570,000 (Bills: 51st; NFL: tied for 120th)
Brown: $537,720 (Bills: 57th; NFL: 149th)

Most overpaid: Spiller. This is probably more of a commentary on the state of the running back position in the NFL more than it is on Spiller. Teams aren't giving running backs large contracts these days. Currently, Spiller's cap number is 416 percent higher than the NFL average at his position. Among Bills players, only Mario Williams has a larger gap from his positional average. This all sets the table for the Bills' upcoming negotiations with Spiller, who can become a free agent after this season. Are the Bills willing to pay Spiller top-five money for his position? Or can they get by with a rotation of younger players? I think the Bills would love to have Spiller's speed and big-play ability around for several more years, but he might still need to prove that he can be the lead horse in the backfield. He's not Adrian Peterson.

Most underpaid: None. This will likely be the final year that the Bills have this much cap space tied up in their running backs. At 33, Jackson isn't going to command the same deal that he received in 2012. Even though Jackson's production hasn't declined -- if anything, he's coming off one of his best seasons -- the Bills will need to consider the future with Jackson, not the past. Will he be worth $4 million a year or more as a 35-year old back? That's unlikely. If the Bills re-sign Spiller, there might be less willingness to bring back Jackson. I think the Bills would like Brown to develop into one of their lead backs, and if that happens, then he'll be underpaid. But for right now, there's no player worthy of that distinction.

Some could synically say that Bryce Brown was acquired as leverage for CJ and F-Jax contracts but the fact the Bills tried and failed to trade-up for Hyde and then made the deal for Bryce indicates this he is more than merely a negotiating chit.

CJ doesn't seem built to be a work horse but both Hyde and Brown look the part.

I agree that with both CJ and F-Jax in place and under contract for this year that Bryce is likely to make his mark next year but I really like his long-term dynasty value. That is how I would target him.

He looks set to either be the starter or challenge for significant playing time in 2015.

 

[EBF]

He looks set to either be the starter or challenge for significant playing time in 2015.

That's my conclusion as well. He's one of the best value-per-cost dynasty RBs right now.

Some of the guys ranked ahead of him in the DLF staff rankings: Sproles, Khiry Robinson, MJD, KaDeem Carey, Danny Woodhead, Darren McFadden, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Johnson. In short, lots of has-beens and never-weres. They have Bernard Pierce at RB25. As someone who owns both players in several leagues, I would probably take Bryce ahead of Pierce right now. Looks to be a similar talent without the durability question marks and actually has a better dynasty situation. I think if I did a dynasty RB list he would at least be in the top 30, if not a little higher. At anything close to his ~RB50 market value, he's a no-brainer buy.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

He looks set to either be the starter or challenge for significant playing time in 2015.

That's my conclusion as well. He's one of the best value-per-cost dynasty RBs right now.

Some of the guys ranked ahead of him in the DLF staff rankings: Sproles, Khiry Robinson, MJD, KaDeem Carey, Danny Woodhead, Darren McFadden, Knowshon Moreno, Chris Johnson. In short, lots of has-beens and never-weres. They have Bernard Pierce at RB25. As someone who owns both players in several leagues, I would probably take Bryce ahead of Pierce right now. Looks to be a similar talent without the durability question marks and actually has a better dynasty situation. I think if I did a dynasty RB list he would at least be in the top 30, if not a little higher. At anything close to his ~RB50 market value, he's a no-brainer buy.

I agree. Kind of a similar situation to C Michaels around this time last year.

Their are some differences.

- Seattle had not attempted to trade-up for a RB as the Bills did this year

- After failing to trade-up for a big RB the Bills traded outright for Bryce Brown

- Michaels (18 carries) was a rookie vying for PT behind one beastly bell-cow RB in his prime

- The Hawks had also drafted a RB the year before in Robert Turbin who compted for reps (77 carries last year)

- Last year the Hawks also drafted RB Spencer Ware (3 carries) later which clouded the backfield even more

- Bills will have one of their two RBs turning age 35 next year while making over $3 million

- CJ and F-Jax in contract years seems one won't be resigned next year

Then their is the ever present injury concern.

http://fansided.com/2014/07/08/bryce-brown-future-buffalo-bills-backfield/#!bbyFdl

Is Bryce Brown the future of the Buffalo Bills’ backfield?

The Buffalo Bills have two excellent running backs in C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, a mix of lightning and thunder. So why did they trade for Bryce Brown during the NFL Draft? The answer seems to be two-fold.

First, the Bills could use an emergency plan for the upcoming season. Fred Jackson came off arguably his best season, but he is still 33-years-old. Running backs have never been like fine wine — unfortunately, they’re like the cheap stuff. Drink it all up till it’s gone. Typically, that doesn’t take very long. It will be great news if Jackson proves my wine analogy false, but it’s more likely that he won’t. C.J. Spiller has a history of injury woes.

Most likely, Brown will be expected to have a reserve role with the Bills that is similar to what he did for the Eagles. He was incredibly productive when called upon. While the Bills would never hope for such a moment to arise, it’s the NFL, and I’d bet it will.

Second, neither Spiller nor Jackson are under contract for 2015. He will have an immediate impact stabilizing what could very well be an inconsistent backfield. Then, he could take over the backfield. He has shown bursts where he could absolutely be a no. 1 running back in the NFL. With a year to get acquainted with the Bills’ system, he could be ready to be the guy in 2015.

Plus, when the Bills renegotiate with C.J. Spiller, they want a bit of leverage to talk Spiller’s agent down. That won’t hurt either.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I like bb, and all that, but what makes dynasty guys think the bills won't simply draft their carlos hyde next year?

why is it assumed bb inherits the crown in '15?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I like bb, and all that, but what makes dynasty guys think the bills won't simply draft their carlos hyde next year?

why is it assumed bb inherits the crown in '15?

exactly

If Spiller and FJax both walk, the cupboard behind Brown will be bare and they will draft a RB regardless

 

[Warhogs]

I own Bryce Brown on one dynasty squad and hope this building hype brings in a nice offer. I don't mind seeing how this plays out but you will bet he won't be handed anything. I see his situation more like Chris Ivory a year ago.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Brown didn't have a game with 10 carries in 2013.

As a rookie in 2012, he didn't have more than 5 carries until week 11. In the next two games against CAR and DAL, he was a combined 43-347-4 rushing (he did underwhelm in the next two games, the only other ones in his short career with 10+ carries - without looking it up, I think due to a McCoy concussion?). He may have put the ball on the ground a few times during that stretch.

Brown was Rivals scouting service's #1 overall prospect in the nation in 2008 (the first RB with that ranking for them since Adrian Peterson in 2004). As a junior, he was the only USA Today All-American from his class. Some scouts thought he was the best RB from the state of Kansas since Barry Sanders.

He verbally committed to Miami to follow his brother (BAL ILB Arthur Brown - reportedly they are the only brothers to be five star recruits) but didn't sign a letter of intent and ended up at Tennessee in 2009. After Lane Kiffin went to USC, he followed his brother, who had since transferred to Kansas State (after both were caught up in allegations of improper benefits from an ex-booster, though not necessarily for that reason, Bryce left Kansas State). So after massive expectations, his collegiate resume was pretty much a complete washout.

He ran a 4.38 at the Kansas State Pro Day at just under 6'0" and 223 lbs., and isn't just a big, fast guy, but has natural rushing skills.

Agree a fourth or possible third round compensation isn't insignificant (though it sounds like it could be a 2016 pick, which could make it relatively cheaper on a time value of the pick basis), especially based on recent precedents.

BUF has a high run volume scheme, Jackson is ancient for a RB, Spiller has been dinged a lot (and even when healthy doesn't look cut out for extensive carries- though could add a lot of touches catching out of the backfield). Both are in contract years, as noted, and even if Spiller returns in 2015, Jackson would seem unlikely to. So Brown seems likely to at least figure prominently in a RBBC, with potential upside as a feature RB if Spiller isn't retained for some reason (more injuries, too expensive to extend?).

Based purely on rushing ability, he is arguably as or more talented than many of the top RBs in the past few classes, and offers an interesting combination of talent, youth (23) and very low mileage (including college).

In the mid/long term, BUF could have a potent offense if Watkins is as good as advertised, and there could be a lot of scoring opportunities in the run game, which Brown might be better suited for than Spiller, given his larger size, sturdier build and more rugged style.

* Brown signed a four year contract with PHI in 2012 (and must be very cheap as a seventh rounder), so his contract year is staggered a year after Spiller and Jackson, in 2015.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I own Bryce Brown on one dynasty squad and hope this building hype brings in a nice offer. I don't mind seeing how this plays out but you will bet he won't be handed anything. I see his situation more like Chris Ivory a year ago.

Bryce Brown might be able to catch and stay healthy though, and Buffalo has been an extremely good rushing offense for a while. I also doubt that the hype explodes given the presence of Spiller and Jackson -- late summer hype usually is tied to perceived opportunity, and for 2014 Brown has plenty of competition.