Brown was drafted in the 7th round, but the price of acquisition for the Bills was a conditional 3rd-4th rounder.
I don't personally put any stock in the idea that a pick is worth less in the future, so the idea that he was acquired for the equivalent of a 6th-7th round pick doesn't really work for me. He was bought for a 3rd or 4th rounder. Period. That puts his range somewhere between guys like Tre Mason (3rd round), Terrance West (3rd round), and Andre Williams (4th round).
That's a good starting point, but the prices teams pay for a veteran RB are different than the prices they pay for rookies. It may seem counter-intuitive, but typically a veteran RB will be cheaper than a rookie of similar talent level. I'm not sure what's driving that exactly, but basically it's rare to see a veteran back command a high price in a trade. For reference, here's a list of recent RB trades that I compiled earlier in the thread:
Recent RB trades:
Darren Sproles to Philadelphia for a 2014 5th round pick
Trent Richardson to Cleveland for a 2014 1st round pick
Chris Ivory to New York for a 2013 4th round pick (106nd overall)
LeGarrette Blount to New England for Jeff Demps and a 2013 7th round pick
Marshawn Lynch to Seattle for a 2011 4th and a conditional pick that became a 2012 5th
Thomas Jones and the 63rd pick in 2007 for the 37th pick
Thomas Jones was also traded earlier in his career for Marquise Walker, a 2002 third round pick who didn't play a game for the Bucs in his rookie season and didn't survive training camp with Arizona after they acquired him.
There aren't a lot of trades for backs, but when they do happen it's usually a cut-rate deal. Trent Richardson pulled a 1st rounder a year after being the #3 pick in his draft and Clinton Portis reaped a major haul way back in the day when the Skins got him, but in general you don't see teams paying over the odds for a veteran back. It looks like veteran RBs actually come at a discount. Maybe due to salary reasons or simply wearing out their welcome.
In the context of what a veteran back will usually pull in a trade, the Stevie Johnson pick (a conditional 3rd/4th) that the Bills spent on Bryce Brown represents a fairly significant investment. Not in the ballpark of what Richardson or Portis cost, but similar to what Ivory and Lynch cost. That isn't a flyer price. It indicates pretty strong intent. I'd say they must be pretty optimistic that they can get good value out of him to spend that.
Given that veterans tend to pull lower prices in trades than rookies of equivalent talent, I don't think it's a stretch to look at Brown and his conditional 3rd/4th price tag as being roughly on par with a late 2nd/3rd round rookie. Even if you take the most pessimistic stance and say it's no better than a 4th round rookie, that puts him on level pegging with guys like Andre Williams and Devonta Freeman who are going somewhat high in FF leagues. He arguably has a more prototypical FF skill set since he's a 220+ pound back with 4.4 speed and conceivably more upside left in the tank (he's still very young and he has almost no carries in his entire college and NFL career).
You can argue what the price tag means exactly, but the general interpretation seems pretty clear to me. This is a price tag that indicates a pretty high degree of optimism. It's roughly equal to what the Jets paid for Ivory and he was their leading rusher last year.
I think that post explains my perspective pretty well. A 3rd-4th round pick is a relatively high investment in any RB, but especially for a veteran back.
To me, Brown is very similar as an overall proposition to guys like Hyde, Mason, B Pierce, West, A Williams, and Sankey. All of them are young RBs with compelling potential who were acquired for a relatively high price. Not a single one of them is such an obvious beast talent that he's going to be handed the keys to a starting job for the next five years. It's probably more realistic to say that the level of investment committed to each of these players ensures that they'll be given a good chance to prove themselves and earn a prominent role, but also that any one of them will be at risk of being replaced if he doesn't deliver.
Maybe then you can see why I find the Brown skepticism inconsistent relative to the optimism for players like Pierce, Sankey, Hyde, West, and Mason. None of these guys are guaranteed anything other than an audition, yet
for whatever reason there is more pessimism with Brown and more of an assumption that he's just keeping the seat warm for somebody else. That's pretty terrible analysis. If you think Sankey, Hyde, and Mason are any more secure, just look at what happened to Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty, Isaiah Pead, Ronnie Hillman, Daniel Thomas, and countless other 2nd-3rd round picks whose presumed inside track on workhorse duties didn't last.
Add it all up and there's very little difference
in my view between Brown and
players with a similar acquisition price for their NFL teams such as Hyde, Hill, Mason, West, Freeman, and Williams. I'm higher on some of those guys than others, but from a generic standpoint all of them fit the general mold of "young RB with upside and a decent pedigree who will be a given a good chance to earn a prominent role with his team." Most of those other guys have a market price around RB25-RB35, so Brown at his ~RB50 price tag represents a great opportunity to get an equivalent commodity at a greatly discounted price.
GENUFLECT at the feet of Chip Kelly's precient knowledge that DeSean Jackson will fail and that Bryce Brown won't succeed?
