Kool-Aid Larry said:
Bob Magaw said:
I'm not trying to tear posters off anybody's shrine, but before we anoint him the next priest holmes and marshall faulk could we acknowledge that before he took advantage of back ups to the bears already historically bad run defense in garbage time during the week 15 54-11 blowout the guy had 188 yds on 64 carries through the first 14 weeks -- that's less than 3 ypc
when you remind us that coaches and player personnel make mistakes and use poor judgement were you referring to philly or buffalo?
Bottom line, do you think he is fairly, over or undervalued at about RB50?
I honestly don't play dynasty --- my only interest is I'm in an auction keeper, so there's a very significant roster cost associated with anyone, as I wouldn't want to sacrifice this year for what may or may not materialize next year, but I'm sure he'll be pennies on the dollar, and the upside is certainly there, so I'm more a seeker of knowledge than hotline psychic.
it just starts to worry me when the hype train comes up with marshall faulk, carlos hyde, et al as points of comparison to make a case for him.
there's such a thing as handicapping the handicappers.
like I said, I don't play dynasty, but give me like a bunch of surrounding players and I will take a guess at who I might prefer.
maybe 6 players to either side, and also a few surrounding rb.
I'm not in any keeper leagues, but I take it there are some parallels with dynasty. Like making guesses about the future of a given prospect's intersection of talent and opportunity. I think of it more in terms of probabilities and informed conjecture than being psychic, but ultimately everybody is in the same boat. There is uncertainty due to Spiller and Jackson. But there are levels of uncertainty and probability.
Spiller would seem to be a more likely candidate to be retained due to the fact that this season will be 27 and Jackson 33. Maybe he will get injured and miss a lot of games? That also has a probablility. He has only missed three games in his first four seasons (though maybe he has been dinged and had his play negatively impacted at other times). Maybe Jackson will explode for 2,000 yards and be extended for another 2-3 years, anything is possible. But that is a low probability.
The acquisition cost theme has been a contentious issue. Suffice it to say, his outlook doesn't need to be as strong as Hyde, to possibly offer upside and value at RB50.
The "since PHI runs a lot and could surely use the depth more than such debateably "low" compensation, we should infer Brown is probably mediocre" theme is also contentious.
I'm not sure if it is obvious why the information about PHI parting with Brown because they presumably weren't high on his future prospects should carry any more weight than BUF liking his future prospects enough to acquire him?
When you brought up maybe nobody wanted DeSean Jackson for a draft pick, that seemed beside the point. It likely had to do with reasons other than his talent (maybe other teams didn't want to assume his contract, there could have been character or off-field concerns, right or wrong, about gang associations, etc.). I don't think you are suggesting that PHI releasing Jackson should be interpreted as his being untalented, but in the context of a discussion about whether PHI giving up on Brown maybe DOES mean that he isn't talented, it is unclear what connecting point this was intended to make?
There seem to be a few separate possible scenarios discussed in the thread and imo it is important to distinguish them. Some may have evaluated him and just don't think he is very good. From that perspective, maybe he isn't a bargain or even fair value at RB50. Other than about three impressive games, he hasn't set the league on fire. A few points on that. Some RBs do better when they have a chance to get in a rhythm, which in his case was probably precluded getting on average 1-2 carries per quarter many games. He is also a RB that is an impressive combination of size and speed, so with more runs, he would have more chances to break more big, explosive plays and raise the yards per carry average. He has been criticized for bouncing runs outside too much, which sounds problematic, perhaps BUF viewed him as a project with upside if they can coach him up and break him of that habit (maybe he will be more motivated and receptive after being traded, to avoid a journeyman rep and status).
Another school of thought could be that he has potential, but his chance at playing time could be blown up by a draft pick as soon as next year. That is a separate issue. Again, if Brown isn't very good, that renders this point moot. IF he does play well, and Spiller plays well and is extended, than how would that situation compare to recent examples where a team was prompted to draft a RB in rounds 2-4 (no first rounders in 2013-2014) that might either have a chance to start, or be an important complement and figure prominently in some form of RBBC?
TEN had only Greene left as their best RB once the declining, expensive and unwilling to negotiate Chris Johnson was out of the picture, and that isn't very good. Bernard went to a team with the nondescript, plodding Law Firm. SF took Hyde, Gore is aging, Hunter is 5'7", 200 lbs. and Lattimore may have lost his burst. PIT took Bell and didn't really have any good options. Ball went to DEN where Moreno had underwhelmed for much of his career and had a contract looming, and they may have wanted at least a complement to Hillman with better size than 5'10", 195 lbs., if not a feature RB. Hill went to a team with one young stud RB, but in need of an upgrade over the plodding Law Firm (see above) with a more dynamic bigger RB complement. Lacy went to a team, like Bell, that didn't have much in the backfield. Sims went to a team with an established young RB, but not much else, so in need of a complement. Third rounder Mason went to a team that didn't have much else after the young incumbent, and he could be a more explosive complement and may even have the talent to eventually supplant Stacy (himself a fifth rounder). West went to a team that brought Tate in as a free agent, who is talented but has injury concerns. Andre Williams went to a team where they just signed a free agent to be the starter despite limited experience and success in that role, and being 29, and their 2012 first rounder may have a career threatening neck injury.
Compared to the above situations, again, IF Spiller plays well (and is extended) and so does Brown, and Jackson isn't extended, they will have a relatively young duo with complementary size. The risk or threat assessment of BUF adding a RB with a "relatively" high pick to Spiller and Brown in the 2015 draft (which was the concern in question being addressed here) wouldn't be like Hill going to CIN when they already had Bernard or Mason to STL when they already had Stacy, it would be more like them adding a THIRD RB in as many years. Unless any members of the expected Bernard/Hill and Stacy/Mason RBBCs completely bomb, I'd be surprised to see a RB taken next year (though Fisher did draft use two picks in the second round and one in the first in rapid succession in TEN, I think in a four year period).
BUF had other options in this draft. The 1.9 was the only compensation from the 2013 draft used to move up to 1.4 for Watkins (plus a 2015 first and fourth). Even after taking OT Kouandjio in the second rather than their pick of the RBs, which was understandable, there were RBs they could have taken later. Leaving out smaller RBs like Mason in the third and Devonta Freeman and Ka'Deem Carey in the fourth (if they were targeting Hyde in a trade up, that could signal they were looking more for a bigger RB as a Spiller complement and Jackson replacement, maybe not coincidentally, like they traded for in Brown), they could have had Terrance West instead of LB Preston Brown in the third or Andre Williams instead of CB Ross Cockrell in the fourth. Maybe they just liked the value of the LB and CB too much to pass on, and they didn't necessarily dislike big RBs like West and Williams, but it is possible that they preferred Bryce Brown to them. I'm not sure that would be my preference, but the advantage to doing it how they did, they were able to draft the LB and CB they wanted THIS year, and still get the RB by flipping the SF fourth NEXT year (or SF third in TWO years) for Stevie Johnson.
Instead of trying to line up Brown's value with other RBs in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, etc., maybe it should be compared to Stevie Johnson, since that is what they actually paid, a 27 year old (28 later this month) WR with three straight 1,000 yard seasons averaging nearly 8 TDs prior to an injury plagued 2013 (though Watkins rendered him superfluous, and effectively made his contract overpriced in a reduced role).
Brown's value has already appreciated from a seventh round pick in 2012 to a probable fourth round pick in 2015, and that was just with what he flashed in fairly limited opportunity, albeit inconsistently (while the few isolated big game outbursts may not impress some surrounded by the stretches of poor yard per carry average games, he does have two 160+ rushing yard games on his resume - many RBs have never done that even once over their career, let alone in their rookie season*, even given far more opportunity over a longer period of time). If he is given a bigger opportunity next year and does something with it, his value could appreciate even more.
* How many rookie RBs have had two 160+ yard rushing games? How many did it in consecutive games and/or with four or fewer starts?
** I saw your list above, I think that was a constructive exercise. It goes to show, Brown isn't the only potentially undervalued prospect, there are always others, and they can be found at every position. Sims is interesting, TB has likened him to Forte (who new HC Lovie Smith had in CHI). He was clearly the best receiving back in the draft, has pretty good size and offers deceptive, underrated speed, if not the most sudden or elusive RB. Though Martin has better size than Spiller with which to be a volume RB, which could leave fewer carries in a potential RBBC distribution for Sims than his counterpart Brown in BUF (if that is what he turns out to be
).
