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Bulger's plummet (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Barooo
- Start date
Birdie048
Footballguy
Might be the health status of Orland Pace. Don't know, but that's a significant drop.
I rate him higher than most (Top 12).
Drew Bennett's extra time in camp will help him as StL WR2 (even with the minor injury).
Holt is healthy and they like McMichael at TE.
Plus S Jax will get a fair share of receptions!
I rate him higher than most (Top 12).
Drew Bennett's extra time in camp will help him as StL WR2 (even with the minor injury).
Holt is healthy and they like McMichael at TE.
Plus S Jax will get a fair share of receptions!
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Bennett will not be the WR2 by week 6. The guy is not a Saunders type WR. He was not brought in by Saunders. Avery and the 4th rounder have been tearing it up. I doubt Bennett is on the team in 2009Now McMichael will be a stud this year....
Oh, Rams Homer...
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I've heard the stat twice now that Saunders' offenses traditionally rank close to #1 in rushing attempts and near #32 in pass attempts.
Add to that the fact that Bulger has shown he's as tough as balsa wood and playing behind a questionable line, I can see the ranking making sense.
Add to that the fact that Bulger has shown he's as tough as balsa wood and playing behind a questionable line, I can see the ranking making sense.
Great comments....but didn't we know most of this just 2 weeks ago....
I am comfortable with some players going up or down 2-3 spots as the pre-season progresses (excluding major injuries of course)....but a 9 spot drop to me is huge when you are talking about QBs...
Nothing like going from a very high end QB2...to scraping the bottom of the QB2 slot....
I am comfortable with some players going up or down 2-3 spots as the pre-season progresses (excluding major injuries of course)....but a 9 spot drop to me is huge when you are talking about QBs...
Nothing like going from a very high end QB2...to scraping the bottom of the QB2 slot....
Nigel Tufnel
Footballguy
TheFanatic
Footballguy
But look who he had as QB's in KC and Washington. Look at his WR's in KC. Kennison?
As for the Balsa wood thing, the guy is literally suffering from shell shock. The Rams started 15 diferent linemen last year. Between the numbers they assigned to the starters and linemen numbers retired they had only 2 numbers left to assign in the linemen range. That's ugly. Favre would've missed time behind our line last year.Here's what I saw in the first preseason game. Nearly every Bulger pass was thrown with Bulger moving away from the play, either backward or sideways, whether he had someone in his face or now. Defense mechanism from so many hits last year. He never stepped into his throws. Did not see the second game but Dan Looker said the one thing the Rams took from that game was that the line played great and they were really proud of that. Reports from the third game were that Bulger was stepping into throws. Playing with more confidence. And it showed on the field and in the box score. Not sure if they will play him in game 4. They may play him for a couple of series with SJax to get a rhythm going, but I doubt it goes much longer than that. While I say that I don't have Bulger on any of my teams. Living in St. Lou, someone always drafts the home town players a little earlier than they should be drafted so I am not, "putting my money where my mouth is," so to speak here. Just giving a homer perspective of what I have seen and am hearing on the local radio...
BigRed
Footballguy
Exactly. Saying this or that won't happen because "they don't fit the coach's system" is overrated. How Bulger/the Rams do keys largely on staying healthy IMO. If he and Jackson and the OL do that, they should be fine.But look who he had as QB's in KC and Washington. Look at his WR's in KC. Kennison?
What about Trent Green? What about his two year tutelage under Martz in St. Louis with Warner, Holt, Bruce and Faulk?In 2001-2005, Trent Green was KC's QB in Al Saunders offense and according to FBGs, he ranked 16th his first year and then 8, 3, 4 and 8. Green averaged over 500 attempts, 22 TDs and over 4000 yards passing. Even in 2006 in Washington, with a hurt Brunell and a rookie in Cambpell, they threw the ball almost 500 times.
Here is a fun stat. In 2007, Saunder's QBs in Washington threw more passes than Peyton Manning did in 2007. They also threw more passes than Tom Brady has averaged in his 7 years as the starter (I ignored his first year).
Saunders may have looked run first, but he studied under Air Coryell and Martz for many a season, so I think it is misinformation to say that his teams never pass. If you look at the stats, Saunders QBs since 1999-2007 have easily averaged 500+ attempts a year. For those playing at home, that is 31.25+ passes per game, which is a lot. Tom Brady threw a ton last year and he averaged 35 attempts per game.
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I banked on Trent Green as a bargain QB for a number of years. He averaged 4000 yards passing and 20 TDs between 2001 and 2005, and was never that highly rated. I think Bulger can perform at that level if the line gives him a chance this year.
Saunders to me might be more TE/QB friendly than WR-friendly, but as another poster observed, it depends on what talent is available on the team. Tony Gonzo and Chris Cooley are two very good TEs.
Saunders to me might be more TE/QB friendly than WR-friendly, but as another poster observed, it depends on what talent is available on the team. Tony Gonzo and Chris Cooley are two very good TEs.
T Bell
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't know where you got this perception from, Andy, but it's not borne out by the stats. The most important thing to remember with Saunders is that historically his teams have fared far better years two and beyond than they have the first year given the immense size of his playbook and the complexity of his scheme. We 'Skins fans were warned about that repeatedly in 2006. That in and of itself is reason to wonder how productive this offense can be, especially with young WR's supposedly playing a major role. Mitigating that to a degree is Bulger's experience in a very similar system under Martz.What about Trent Green? What about his two year tutelage under Martz in St. Louis with Warner, Holt, Bruce and Faulk?
In 2001-2005, Trent Green was KC's QB in Al Saunders offense and according to FBGs, he ranked 16th his first year and then 8, 3, 4 and 8. Green averaged over 500 attempts, 22 TDs and over 4000 yards passing. Even in 2006 in Washington, with a hurt Brunell and a rookie in Cambpell, they threw the ball almost 500 times.
Here is a fun stat. In 2007, Saunder's QBs in Washington threw more passes than Peyton Manning did in 2007. They also threw more passes than Tom Brady has averaged in his 7 years as the starter (I ignored his first year).
Saunders may have looked run first, but he studied under Air Coryell and Martz for many a season, so I think it is misinformation to say that his teams never pass. If you look at the stats, Saunders QBs since 1999-2007 have easily averaged 500+ attempts a year. For those playing at home, that is 31.25+ passes per game, which is a lot. Tom Brady threw a ton last year and he averaged 35 attempts per game.
Nigel Tufnel
Footballguy
So, is the sudden drop all about Pace, then? He's dropped significantly in everyone's projections.
ScoobyDoo
Footballguy
I'd be curious as to why as well.So, is the sudden drop all about Pace, then? He's dropped significantly in everyone's projections.
Nigel Tufnel
Footballguy
Nigel Tufnel
Footballguy
About a 15 point difference in Dodds's rankings.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I'm not sure where you are getting that from.In 22 years as a HC, OC, or Assistant Coach, his teams' average ranking has been 16.3 in passing attempts and 11.4 in rushing attempts.His offenses have ranked Top 10 in passing attempts 7 times and Top 10 in rushing attempts 11 times. His offenses have ranked 20th or worse in passing attempts 10 times and 20th or worst in rushing attempts 5 times.Bear in mind that many times he was only a piece of the puzzle, so I'm not sure we can pin the entire playcalling on him.
T Bell
Footballguy
You mean as opposed to, say, McNabb?
Gr00vus
Footballguy
It's funny because it's true.As opposed to the many other QB's available to draft from.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Then I heard wrong. Maybe it was just last year?
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Have you seen any of the games? Two things the Rams are lauding this preseason is the play of their O-Line and the fact that they have only allowed 1 TD in 8 redzone attempts on D....
T Bell
Footballguy
This is all true, but after watching last year's debacle with Pace out, I'm not sure how much to trust what I've seen in the preseason. Fair?
Granted; I acknowledge that from a point spread perspective..the shift could be viewed as small. However, it is still an amazing drop in my eyes and can potentially signal that his selection even as a back-up is unstable...
To me when someone goes from projections similar to Anderson and almost in line with a top 10 selection....to below Kitna (no Martz), Warner (not even the starter "yet") and Campbell...and just above Tavaris....something is brewing behind the scenes (see below for breakdown).
Lets look at some recent articles published this week on the site:
- 8/25; Top 200 Performance scoring - Bulger is ranked QB13
- 8/26; Current Projections for QB - Bulger is ranked QB22
Same author; huge moves in just one day....something doesn't fit...
Here were the rankings as of 8/12:
11 Derek Anderson (05.05) 218
12 Vince Young (12.09) Ten/6 218
13 Marc Bulger (08.04) StL/5 216
14 Philip Rivers (10.11) SD/9 205
15 Aaron Rodgers (11.07) 204
16 Eli Manning (08.05) NYG/4 204
17 Matt Schaub (11.09) Hou/8 203
18 Jason Campbell (12.08) 202
19 Jake Delhomme (10.03) 197
20 Brett Favre (08.11) NYJ/5 193
21 Jon Kitna (12.11) Det/4 193
22 Tarvaris Jackson (17.07) 185
Evolved too on 8/25
11 Derek Anderson (06.02) 221
12 Vince Young (13.09) Ten/6 218
13 Matt Schaub (11.06) Hou/8 217
14 Eli Manning (09.02) NYG/4 215
15 Jake Delhomme (11.05) 211
16 Brett Favre (08.09) NYJ/5 209
17 Aaron Rodgers (12.02) 208
18 Philip Rivers (11.02) SD/9 206
19 Jason Campbell (14.06) 205
20 Kurt Warner (19.04) Ari/7 202
21 Jon Kitna (13.02) Det/4 200
22 Marc Bulger (10.02) StL/5 199
To me when someone goes from projections similar to Anderson and almost in line with a top 10 selection....to below Kitna (no Martz), Warner (not even the starter "yet") and Campbell...and just above Tavaris....something is brewing behind the scenes (see below for breakdown).
Lets look at some recent articles published this week on the site:
- 8/25; Top 200 Performance scoring - Bulger is ranked QB13
- 8/26; Current Projections for QB - Bulger is ranked QB22
Same author; huge moves in just one day....something doesn't fit...
Here were the rankings as of 8/12:
11 Derek Anderson (05.05) 218
12 Vince Young (12.09) Ten/6 218
13 Marc Bulger (08.04) StL/5 216
14 Philip Rivers (10.11) SD/9 205
15 Aaron Rodgers (11.07) 204
16 Eli Manning (08.05) NYG/4 204
17 Matt Schaub (11.09) Hou/8 203
18 Jason Campbell (12.08) 202
19 Jake Delhomme (10.03) 197
20 Brett Favre (08.11) NYJ/5 193
21 Jon Kitna (12.11) Det/4 193
22 Tarvaris Jackson (17.07) 185
Evolved too on 8/25
11 Derek Anderson (06.02) 221
12 Vince Young (13.09) Ten/6 218
13 Matt Schaub (11.06) Hou/8 217
14 Eli Manning (09.02) NYG/4 215
15 Jake Delhomme (11.05) 211
16 Brett Favre (08.09) NYJ/5 209
17 Aaron Rodgers (12.02) 208
18 Philip Rivers (11.02) SD/9 206
19 Jason Campbell (14.06) 205
20 Kurt Warner (19.04) Ari/7 202
21 Jon Kitna (13.02) Det/4 200
22 Marc Bulger (10.02) StL/5 199
The Rams have had an awfully easy preseason schedule though. I'm sure this is artificially inflating the defense (a lot of Charlie Whitehurst and Joe Flacco the last 2 games), but I'm hesitant to say so regarding the OL. Interested to hear your thoughts there . . .Also, the Rams essentially have no backup OT behind Pace and Barron.TheFanatic said:
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
What doesn't fit is Favre being ranked below Vince Young. That's kooky talk.Bulger had a bad year due to injuries to him and the line, and not many have confidence in him this year based on that. No-one knows for sure what's going to happen this year, but as of now, he should not be drafted as a QB1 but rather a QB2 with upside. The guy was drafted as a Top 5 QB last year. People have short memories.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
It wasn't like the Rams were without Pace last year and the rest of the line was fine. They started 15 different linemen over the course of the season. They didn't just lose Pace. They pretty much lost everyone. Pace is the linchpin, but they actually have depth at O-Line this year. Last year, years of Martz not drafting bread and butter guys (linemen - D and O - LB's, 2ndary guys) caught up with the Rams. Martz drafted toys (Crouch in the 5th, Candidate in the 1st) instead of guys for depth in the trenches and even just special teamers that have to earn their way to the O or the D. The Rams did a lot to restock the shelves with those guys this offseason.Tatum Bell said:
T Bell
Footballguy
I think we're in agreement then. I do appreciate that the Rams have rebuilt their line, but the truth is that the guys you are citing as depth are rookies, and without Pace in the lineup that's small consolation to someone (like me, BTW) rooting for Bulger. As Pace goes, so goes that line this year IMHO.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
They also signed Jacob Bell from Tennessee in the offseason. And getting back 2 or 3 starters that were injured for all or part of last season makes the line immensely better. But the other side of the ball is equally important. The Rams couldn't stop anybody last year and had to pass to score and got Bulger killed out there. Being able to hand off in the 4th quarter will be a HUGE deal here...
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
He should have been closer to #22 a couple months ago.What is drivng the fall on the application now? They were very very late of getting hip-to-the-skip.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I like Avery too, but to displace a solid route runner with good hands who is 6' 5" with a rookie who is still learning the playbook is a big leap for me. I can se Avery climbing up to become the WR3 mid-season, but he still has a long way to go before I put him ahead of Drew Bennett. Bennett is a nice Red Zone target regardless. OK, so he's not a Saunders guy...I am no Rams Homer by any reach.... so I have to accept your view as a better local angle, but from the preseaon reports on Avery, he was looking very raw...has this changed? (sorry, I can not access the reports... at work right now).
The drop in Bulger's value could also be based on the idea that S Jax has returned and the plan os to run more thus reducing the passing offense.... just a guess.
Maybe they are lauding it after the 3rd preseason game against the woeful Ravens but they weren't very good the first 2 games. I specifically saw Bulger get his bell majorly rung in game 2 causing a fumble and forcing him to leave the game.Edit: Maybe it was an aberration, but I am going to have to see some real games before I trust that the O'line is much better after the last two years.TheFanatic said:
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David Dodds
Administrator
It's mostly a downgrade to the offensive line and the possibility he misses a start to injury because of an offensive line that so far doesn't look like it wil be able to keep him healthy all season. I lowered him 2 passings TDs and a rushing TD and that was enough to have him move a lot of spots among the other QBs.
David; killer!! Thank you for taking the time to help me understand the shift. I truly value everything that you write and am one of the biggest believers in your approaches. I have reached the Superbowl in 50% of my leagues since I started reviewing your work. I don't think too many people can say that after managing 14 teams.
So in a nutshell; should I take Schaub to flirt with the top 10 QBs?
So in a nutshell; should I take Schaub to flirt with the top 10 QBs?
David Dodds
Administrator
I love Schaub a lot this year. His situation is perfect for a QB. The running game is a mess, with a bunch of average and often-injured players competing against a rookie. I don't expect a lot from the backs. This team threw for 3,925 yards last year, but Schaub gets no love because those stats were split between he and Rosenfels. I am a big believer in Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels and of course Andre Johnson is a stud if he can stay healthy.
I also like that Schaub is undervalued in most drafts and you can get him in the later rounds.
I also like that Schaub is undervalued in most drafts and you can get him in the later rounds.
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Not to quibble, but the last year when Martz was there, they drafted Incognito and Barron, 2 more starters on the OL than they've drafted since, not to mention an excellent blocking FB in Hedgecock. Greco's the first OL they've drafted in the first 4 rounds since Linehan became coach. The real reason no one should adjust their ratings b/c of the OL injuries in camp is that Setterstrom and Gorin are totally replaceable guys. Hell, they got Gorin as a camp cut by Arizona about this time a year ago.
David; I concur on all points......just needed to make sure that I wasn't missing something that had shifted......I think all of us in the realm of prediction just want to have confidence...hence my thread....I am a manager on a Stats team...hence my concern based on the deviation....
I look forward to your guidance all year long.....
I look forward to your guidance all year long.....
