Bump KC rushing attack (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

I was high on LJ coming back with a vengence before reading the following. Go to the link for the full story.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/640131.html

Chan Gailey wouldn’t let up.

The Chiefs’ new offensive coordinator sat down last month with first-round pick Branden Albert and talked about the future and which position the youngster would play. Albert had played guard at Virginia, and Gailey was talking about moving the rookie to tackle — left tackle, one of any NFL team’s marquee and highest-pressure positions.

... The Chiefs are going with a lot of what Gailey has suggested since he replaced Mike Solari in January. After arriving in Kansas City, he started changing anything that looked like it might have caused last year’s 4-12 record.

The Chiefs attempted 563 passes last year, 11th-most in the NFL. Gailey’s offense centers on power running and play-action, which coaches hope will relieve pressure on second-year starting quarterback Brodie Croyle.

Gailey simplified the playbook. He wanted a younger, defined offensive line...

... Gailey’s offense is not glamorous or tricky but instead is a throwback. Gailey is a 56-year-old football guy, a man who talks about toughness and pride in a thick Georgia drawl. Offense, in Gailey’s opinion, isn’t about fooling defenses; it’s about beating them.

“I believe in running the football,” Gailey said. “I believe you have to be a physical football team to win. It’s a tough game for tough people.”

Edwards couldn’t help but laugh this week when asked to describe Gailey’s offense.

There’s no style or signature; it’s just simple and efficient — kind of like Gailey himself, Edwards said...

I had a feeling LJ would be coming back with a vengence a few months ago before they drafted Brandon Albert. I had forgotten the boost that Chaun Gailey could provide. I think KC's rushing attack is worthy of a legit bump and that LJ is being grossly undervalued in some circles.

 

[travdogg]

It all sounds nice until you remember the Chiefs are one of the least talented teams in the league. I'd be shocked if LJ was a top-5 RB again.

The only guy on that team that looks capable of outperforming their ADP is Bowe IMO.

 

[Banger]

With Herm running the show I think it should be expected that they'll run the rock (or at least try) no matter what. Last year LJ was on pace for 316 carries and 60 receptions. I know he bashed quite a bit last year but I wrote this a few weeks back in an LJ thread....

What's funny is that while LJ played the toughest part of his schedule and was just getting to the juicy part when he got hurt he still scored 98.5 points in 8 games. Over a 16 game schedule it extrapolates to 197 points which would have put him 7th in RB scoring last year. In '06 when RB scoring was much high he would have come in 10th. Not nearly as horrible a year as many think it was.

....

Despite their bad line, bad QB, etc. if LJ can stay healthy it will be very very difficult for him not to be a top 10 RB next year.

 

[burd]

KC is going to pound the rock ... until they're down by 2 TDs. At which point, they'll be forced to pass.

no good ... i don't like any KC players this year. The OL isn't what it once was, so LJ won't be skating through holes like he did in the pass. Also, Croyle sparks zero fear in the mind's of opposing defenses. Look for LJ to see 8, even 9 in the box until Croyle gives defenses reason to worry about him.

i know that LJ will be gone way too early for my liking, but even still, say he's available at the end of round 1, which he won't be, i'd rather take my chances w/ McGahee or some other less than stellar RB.

 

[css2373]

Johnson's health is as dependent on his blockers that just about any other RB in the league. He initiaites contact most of the time, so...will he be meeting up with d lineman, linebackers or the secondary. Who is hitting him will determine how long he lasts this year. Like Banger said, Herm will get him the touches...but how long can he hold up.

Also, with that D in transition, how many leads will Johnson be relied upon to salt away? Or, will he be on the bench or pass blocking when whomever the QB is, is trying to mount a feeble comeback.

 

[TheFanatic]

Pounding the rock + horrible O line = mediocre numbers for LJ

 

[KCC]

KC is going to pound the rock ... until they're down by 2 TDs. At which point, they'll be forced to pass.

Given their QB situation, I don't think KC's wanting to run the ball is surprising. It won't be surprising to any defensive coordinators either.

 

[Banger]

Pounding the rock + horrible O line = mediocre numbers for LJ

Is being ranked #7 mediocre? Don't lose sight that he had 30 receptions last year in 8 games.His ppg were 8.7, 8.7, 3.7, 14.8, 1.5, 20.3, 19.3, 21.5 and he was getting to the nice part of his schedule.

 

[zamboni]

Doesn't just about every team not coached by Andy Reid or offensively coordinated by Mike Martz have a strong desire to run the ball as much as feasible?

 

[travdogg]

KC is going to pound the rock ... until they're down by 2 TDs. At which point, they'll be forced to pass.

no good ... i don't like any KC players this year. The OL isn't what it once was, so LJ won't be skating through holes like he did in the pass. Also, Croyle sparks zero fear in the mind's of opposing defenses. Look for LJ to see 8, even 9 in the box until Croyle gives defenses reason to worry about him.

i know that LJ will be gone way too early for my liking, but even still, say he's available at the end of round 1, which he won't be, i'd rather take my chances w/ McGahee or some other less than stellar RB.

McGahee? Isn't his situation very similar to LJ's? Unproven QB, mediocre line and arguably less talent in the passing game. Not to mention McGahee has less talent than LJ. I'm not saying I'd be comfortable taking LJ in the 1st round(and he carried me in 05' and 06') but McGahee seems like an interesting choice to go ahead of him.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Doesn't just about every team not coached by Andy Reid or offensively coordinated by Mike Martz have a strong desire to run the ball as much as feasible?

Absolutely. Being able to run the ball keeps your team in control, manages the clock, wears down the opposing defense, and keeps your D rested. Unfortunately bad teams are not able to do this.

 

[dahboys]

KC is going to pound the rock ... until they're down by 2 TDs. At which point, they'll be forced to pass.

no good ... i don't like any KC players this year. The OL isn't what it once was, so LJ won't be skating through holes like he did in the pass. Also, Croyle sparks zero fear in the mind's of opposing defenses. Look for LJ to see 8, even 9 in the box until Croyle gives defenses reason to worry about him.

i know that LJ will be gone way too early for my liking, but even still, say he's available at the end of round 1, which he won't be, i'd rather take my chances w/ McGahee or some other less than stellar RB.

McGahee? Isn't his situation very similar to LJ's? Unproven QB, mediocre line and arguably less talent in the passing game. Not to mention McGahee has less talent than LJ. I'm not saying I'd be comfortable taking LJ in the 1st round(and he carried me in 05' and 06') but McGahee seems like an interesting choice to go ahead of him.

KC will win alot more games than B-more!.5 point per reception dynasty league and I picked up Larry Johnson with the seventh pick fifth round. Chad Johnson went next. Both must have fell of the radar screan b/c three LBs went before Larry and Chad.

5.07 47 Johnson, Larry KCC RB Mon May 26 9:37:04 p.m. ET 2008 Pick made based on Pre-Draft List

 

[coolnerd]

Doesn't just about every team not coached by Andy Reid or offensively coordinated by Mike Martz have a strong desire to run the ball as much as feasible?

And if I search hard enough I can find articles about how all 30 of them will run more effectively in 2008 because of new scheme, better OL, different RB, improved passing game, more committment, etc.

 

[moderated]

KC will win alot more games than B-more!

 

[The Jacket]

Pounding the rock + horrible O line = mediocre numbers for LJ

Is being ranked #7 mediocre? Don't lose sight that he had 30 receptions last year in 8 games.His ppg were 8.7, 8.7, 3.7, 14.8, 1.5, 20.3, 19.3, 21.5 and he was getting to the nice part of his schedule.

Exactly. People are sleeping on LJ and completely overreacting to ESPN hype. He will be a hell of a lot better this year, and he WASN'T EVEN THAT BAD LAST YEAR! Fantasy does not equal reality. It doesn't matter if his YPC was down, he still got some decent points, and he hadn't even got into the easy part of his schedule. He was on pace to finish 7th, and given his schedule there's a chance could've finished top-five. I feel real good about saying he'll easily do that again if healthy ... if he can avoid another fluke injury.

 

[FavreCo]

KC will win alot more games than B-more!

Let's say Baltimore wins zero games. How many exactly is 'a lot more' because I also don't think the Chiefs have 'a lot more' in their arsenal.

 

[Banger]

Pounding the rock + horrible O line = mediocre numbers for LJ

Is being ranked #7 mediocre? Don't lose sight that he had 30 receptions last year in 8 games.His ppg were 8.7, 8.7, 3.7, 14.8, 1.5, 20.3, 19.3, 21.5 and he was getting to the nice part of his schedule.

Exactly. People are sleeping on LJ and completely overreacting to ESPN hype. He will be a hell of a lot better this year, and he WASN'T EVEN THAT BAD LAST YEAR! Fantasy does not equal reality. It doesn't matter if his YPC was down, he still got some decent points, and he hadn't even got into the easy part of his schedule. He was on pace to finish 7th, and given his schedule there's a chance could've finished top-five. I feel real good about saying he'll easily do that again if healthy ... if he can avoid another fluke injury.

Even though he was "horrible" last year he was on pace for 1478 yards and 8 tds. He was also on pace for 376 touch's which would have been the most in the league followed by LT (375), Portis (372), Westy (368), James (349), etc. Is a guy that averages 4.3 ypc and gets 260 carries better than a guy that gets 3.5 ypc and 320 carries? Is he going to be worse than last year? If he's healthy he's a top 10 back if he duplicates last year, if he's better then he's a top 5 back.... So basically the bet is whether he's going to be healthy or not which really isn't much different than any other RB.....

 

[TheFanatic]

Pounding the rock + horrible O line = mediocre numbers for LJ

Is being ranked #7 mediocre? Don't lose sight that he had 30 receptions last year in 8 games.His ppg were 8.7, 8.7, 3.7, 14.8, 1.5, 20.3, 19.3, 21.5 and he was getting to the nice part of his schedule.

He had 3 great games against Cinci, Oakland and Green Bay at home. That line is a shell of what it used to be. LJ is a year older. LJ is not top 10 material anymore....Maybe in PPR leagues as he's got great hands, he's just not in a good situation anymore....

 

[TheFanatic]

Pounding the rock + horrible O line = mediocre numbers for LJ

Is being ranked #7 mediocre? Don't lose sight that he had 30 receptions last year in 8 games.His ppg were 8.7, 8.7, 3.7, 14.8, 1.5, 20.3, 19.3, 21.5 and he was getting to the nice part of his schedule.

Exactly. People are sleeping on LJ and completely overreacting to ESPN hype. He will be a hell of a lot better this year, and he WASN'T EVEN THAT BAD LAST YEAR! Fantasy does not equal reality. It doesn't matter if his YPC was down, he still got some decent points, and he hadn't even got into the easy part of his schedule. He was on pace to finish 7th, and given his schedule there's a chance could've finished top-five. I feel real good about saying he'll easily do that again if healthy ... if he can avoid another fluke injury.

Even though he was "horrible" last year he was on pace for 1478 yards and 8 tds. He was also on pace for 376 touch's which would have been the most in the league followed by LT (375), Portis (372), Westy (368), James (349), etc. Is a guy that averages 4.3 ypc and gets 260 carries better than a guy that gets 3.5 ypc and 320 carries? Is he going to be worse than last year? If he's healthy he's a top 10 back if he duplicates last year, if he's better then he's a top 5 back.... So basically the bet is whether he's going to be healthy or not which really isn't much different than any other RB.....

Guys don't run in a vacuum. They have to have a line block for them, a QB that can march a team down the field and a D that can get the ball back from the opposing team. KC is 0-3 on all of those. This is a team that traded their best Defensive player, and was looking for, according to the coach, 6 or 7 starters in the draft. That is not a team that is going to score much or win many games. Playing from behind kills the running game....

 

[Andy Herron]

I wouldn't get too carried away with a simple article instilling confidence in the Chiefs running game right now, and I don't think LJ is too far from fishing trips with Shaun Alexander.

 

[The Jacket]

Pounding the rock + horrible O line = mediocre numbers for LJ

Is being ranked #7 mediocre? Don't lose sight that he had 30 receptions last year in 8 games.His ppg were 8.7, 8.7, 3.7, 14.8, 1.5, 20.3, 19.3, 21.5 and he was getting to the nice part of his schedule.

He had 3 great games against Cinci, Oakland and Green Bay at home. That line is a shell of what it used to be. LJ is a year older. LJ is not top 10 material anymore....Maybe in PPR leagues as he's got great hands, he's just not in a good situation anymore....

The line will be better this year. A lot better. And nothing else got worse. That's why you're missing the point. 2007 repeated is a top 10 finish -- IF HEALTHY -- and he should be BETTER!

 

[Otis]

We're gonna be really good this season. /every team in the NFL in May

 

[Bracie Smathers]

We're gonna be really good this season. /every team in the NFL in May

Niether the article or Edwards or Gailey uttered that line. This is what Gailey said.

... Gailey’s offense is not glamorous or tricky but instead is a throwback. Gailey is a 56-year-old football guy, a man who talks about toughness and pride in a thick Georgia drawl. Offense, in Gailey’s opinion, isn’t about fooling defenses; it’s about beating them.

“I believe in running the football,” Gailey said. “I believe you have to be a physical football team to win. It’s a tough game for tough people.”

Last year the Cheifs had a rookie QB, Bowe was unknown, and LJ was not only coming off of a 400+ carry season he also had missed all of training camp and got injured. He was coming on strong before he got hurt with a rookie QB and with Bowe having less than a year's worth of starts under his belt. Croyle insn't my idea of a good starting QB but he'll be better than he was last year. Bowe should also improve. And ask Cleveland how much impact a rookie OLT can have on an offense.

The anti-LJ jags are almost identical to what was being said last year about Jamal Lewis. He's old, he has a lot of carries, he is part of the 400 carry club and no one ever does well after taking 400 carries, Cleveland's offsive line is horrible, Cleveland doesn't have a QB, Jamal is done, kaput, fini.

After years finishing at the bottom of the league in offense the Browns had five Pro Bowlers on offense and finished in the top ten in scoring and Jamal Lewis had the most combined yards of any Browns RB since Leroy Kelly back in 1968.

If LJ is healthy he is vastly underrated in some circles.

 

[MAC_32]

LJ would be a great matchup play but a matchup play isn't what's expected out of a 1st round pick, which is what he's going to command; it's not worth it. He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

 

[jurb26]

Does anyone know how Charles is planned to be used? I would think he could poss a rather big threat to steal some of those receptions LJ had been getting the past few years.

 

[Bojang0301]

History shows that Herm favors one back. No one is a threat. He ran CuMart into the ground he will do the same with LJ.

 

[Bojang0301]

LJ would be a great matchup play but a matchup play isn't what's expected out of a 1st round pick, which is what he's going to command; it's not worth it. He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

What is worth it for a first rounder? Seriously, what RB doesn't have question marks. This is getting redundent. ADP is probably the most talented back available and he has had injury woes and still has carries taken from him by Chester. There is nothing set in stone for this year. No automatic Marshall or Priest or Emmitt... nada.

 

[The Jacket]

He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

Once again, his first eight games doubled makes him entirely worth a first-round pick -- and he'd have upside. If people think KC's overall offense will be worse in '08, they really need to actually watch last year's unit and then take a look at their current roster. (WR corps vastly improved, OL vastly improved, RB depth vastly improved, TE depth vastly improved. Croyle could once again stink, but it's reasonable to assume he'll improve; and even if he doesn't, he stunk last year and that alone won't kill LJ.)Let's put it this way: If LJ stays healthy, he's getting 300 carries. And in those 300 carries, I fully expect him to get 1100+ yards - and that's conservative. Over 16 games, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll top 40 catches for 30+ yards and has 50+ catch potential. Touchdowns are a wildcard but you can once again bet your bottom dollar that he'll get plenty of opportunities (and certainly more than Brodie Croyle passing the football).

 

[MAC_32]

LJ would be a great matchup play but a matchup play isn't what's expected out of a 1st round pick, which is what he's going to command; it's not worth it. He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

What is worth it for a first rounder? Seriously, what RB doesn't have question marks. This is getting redundent. ADP is probably the most talented back available and he has had injury woes and still has carries taken from him by Chester. There is nothing set in stone for this year. No automatic Marshall or Priest or Emmitt... nada.

The difference being LJ's lower ceiling, I am confident he will have avg to below avg to bad games against New England, Carolina, Tennessee, San Diego x2, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Buffalo. I'll probably get one or two wrong, so six sub-par games and he probably won't set the world on fire in all of the other games in which I expect better than avg production. I think the upside of other RB options in round 1 justifies picking them above LJ. I think the 2nd tier 1st round RB's that stay healthy will have relatively similar numbers come season's end (very early projections), but one or two will emerge from the heap - I just think the chances of that person being LJ is much smaller than the others.

 

[MAC_32]

He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

Once again, his first eight games doubled makes him entirely worth a first-round pick -- and he'd have upside. If people think KC's overall offense will be worse in '08, they really need to actually watch last year's unit and then take a look at their current roster. (WR corps vastly improved, OL vastly improved, RB depth vastly improved, TE depth vastly improved. Croyle could once again stink, but it's reasonable to assume he'll improve; and even if he doesn't, he stunk last year and that alone won't kill LJ.)Let's put it this way: If LJ stays healthy, he's getting 300 carries. And in those 300 carries, I fully expect him to get 1100+ yards - and that's conservative. Over 16 games, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll top 40 catches for 30+ yards and has 50+ catch potential. Touchdowns are a wildcard but you can once again bet your bottom dollar that he'll get plenty of opportunities (and certainly more than Brodie Croyle passing the football).

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency? I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season. And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season. He had a total of 17 passing attempts while LJ was playing. He may not have a negative effect on LJ, but stating that he will not is just wild speculation.I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

 

[Banger]

He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

Once again, his first eight games doubled makes him entirely worth a first-round pick -- and he'd have upside. If people think KC's overall offense will be worse in '08, they really need to actually watch last year's unit and then take a look at their current roster. (WR corps vastly improved, OL vastly improved, RB depth vastly improved, TE depth vastly improved. Croyle could once again stink, but it's reasonable to assume he'll improve; and even if he doesn't, he stunk last year and that alone won't kill LJ.)Let's put it this way: If LJ stays healthy, he's getting 300 carries. And in those 300 carries, I fully expect him to get 1100+ yards - and that's conservative. Over 16 games, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll top 40 catches for 30+ yards and has 50+ catch potential. Touchdowns are a wildcard but you can once again bet your bottom dollar that he'll get plenty of opportunities (and certainly more than Brodie Croyle passing the football).

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency? I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season. And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season. He had a total of 17 passing attempts while LJ was playing. He may not have a negative effect on LJ, but stating that he will not is just wild speculation.I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

Gore won't get the touch's LJ will. If he stays exactly the same as last year (which was horrible by most accounts) he'd finish 7th, in '06 he would've finished 10th, his ranking is 9th in FBG (don't know ADP). Unless you think he's going to get worse or get hurt he's a good value this year. If the line improves and/or Croyle improves he becomes a very good value and top 5 back.

 

[MAC_32]

He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

Once again, his first eight games doubled makes him entirely worth a first-round pick -- and he'd have upside. If people think KC's overall offense will be worse in '08, they really need to actually watch last year's unit and then take a look at their current roster. (WR corps vastly improved, OL vastly improved, RB depth vastly improved, TE depth vastly improved. Croyle could once again stink, but it's reasonable to assume he'll improve; and even if he doesn't, he stunk last year and that alone won't kill LJ.)Let's put it this way: If LJ stays healthy, he's getting 300 carries. And in those 300 carries, I fully expect him to get 1100+ yards - and that's conservative. Over 16 games, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll top 40 catches for 30+ yards and has 50+ catch potential. Touchdowns are a wildcard but you can once again bet your bottom dollar that he'll get plenty of opportunities (and certainly more than Brodie Croyle passing the football).

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency? I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season. And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season. He had a total of 17 passing attempts while LJ was playing. He may not have a negative effect on LJ, but stating that he will not is just wild speculation.I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

Gore won't get the touch's LJ will. If he stays exactly the same as last year (which was horrible by most accounts) he'd finish 7th, in '06 he would've finished 10th, his ranking is 9th in FBG (don't know ADP). Unless you think he's going to get worse or get hurt he's a good value this year. If the line improves and/or Croyle improves he becomes a very good value and top 5 back.

Says who? Their coach and OC have already been talking about making sure their best play makers (Gore and VD) get more touches. Gore averaged 21/gm last year, I think a 4 touch spike would be reasonable. Any more than that and the injury risk increases more and more. LJ may get more than 25/gm, but I think the increase in short term production is offset by the increased likelihood of being injured.Gore was a popular first round pick, finished in that same neighborhood (7-10, don't have the exact numbers with me) as LJ would have finished had his numbers held up for a full season, and owners were frustrated. Why? A lower ppg and a lot of pts concentrated within a smaller sample of games, something LJ was showing signs of. What do Gore and LJ have in common? A lot, they're both bruising, physical backs that play every down, are the focal point of their respective offense, have an awful QB under center, bad OLines to run behind, bad offenses in general, poor coaching, a questionable defense, and have really only been big time producers in one full season. We have a pretty good idea of what we're going to get out of these guys, we don't out of guys like Marshawn, MB3, Ryan Grant, MJD, etc. That said, we do know that the Grant's and the Graham's are capable of at least matching LJ, they're more valuable because there's reason to believe they're capable of more. Possibly, a lot more.

 

[Banger]

He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

Once again, his first eight games doubled makes him entirely worth a first-round pick -- and he'd have upside. If people think KC's overall offense will be worse in '08, they really need to actually watch last year's unit and then take a look at their current roster. (WR corps vastly improved, OL vastly improved, RB depth vastly improved, TE depth vastly improved. Croyle could once again stink, but it's reasonable to assume he'll improve; and even if he doesn't, he stunk last year and that alone won't kill LJ.)Let's put it this way: If LJ stays healthy, he's getting 300 carries. And in those 300 carries, I fully expect him to get 1100+ yards - and that's conservative. Over 16 games, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll top 40 catches for 30+ yards and has 50+ catch potential. Touchdowns are a wildcard but you can once again bet your bottom dollar that he'll get plenty of opportunities (and certainly more than Brodie Croyle passing the football).

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency? I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season. And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season. He had a total of 17 passing attempts while LJ was playing. He may not have a negative effect on LJ, but stating that he will not is just wild speculation.I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

Gore won't get the touch's LJ will. If he stays exactly the same as last year (which was horrible by most accounts) he'd finish 7th, in '06 he would've finished 10th, his ranking is 9th in FBG (don't know ADP). Unless you think he's going to get worse or get hurt he's a good value this year. If the line improves and/or Croyle improves he becomes a very good value and top 5 back.

Says who? Their coach and OC have already been talking about making sure their best play makers (Gore and VD) get more touches. Gore averaged 21/gm last year, I think a 4 touch spike would be reasonable. Any more than that and the injury risk increases more and more. LJ may get more than 25/gm, but I think the increase in short term production is offset by the increased likelihood of being injured.Gore was a popular first round pick, finished in that same neighborhood (7-10, don't have the exact numbers with me) as LJ would have finished had his numbers held up for a full season, and owners were frustrated. Why? A lower ppg and a lot of pts concentrated within a smaller sample of games, something LJ was showing signs of. What do Gore and LJ have in common? A lot, they're both bruising, physical backs that play every down, are the focal point of their respective offense, have an awful QB under center, bad OLines to run behind, bad offenses in general, poor coaching, a questionable defense, and have really only been big time producers in one full season. We have a pretty good idea of what we're going to get out of these guys, we don't out of guys like Marshawn, MB3, Ryan Grant, MJD, etc. That said, we do know that the Grant's and the Graham's are capable of at least matching LJ, they're more valuable because there's reason to believe they're capable of more. Possibly, a lot more.

Look at the history. LJ will be at the top or near in touch's with Herm at the helm. Just run the #'s and the expected ypc at various carry levels, LJ is a good value where he's drafted now despite the potential anemic offense. I was screaming the same thing about McGahee and Portis last year... use the search and see. To throw Graham's name in there is an insult. Graham = Betts. Grant's situation has changed drastically (and I own Grant in the same league as I own LJ). We know what the Graham's and Grant's are capable of in all of what 8 games each? cmon. That's silly. LJ is sooooooooo much more talented than either one of those backs it's crazy. LJ is a proven elite back who's going to get the ball a TON whether it be in the running or passing game.

 

[Banger]

He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

Once again, his first eight games doubled makes him entirely worth a first-round pick -- and he'd have upside. If people think KC's overall offense will be worse in '08, they really need to actually watch last year's unit and then take a look at their current roster. (WR corps vastly improved, OL vastly improved, RB depth vastly improved, TE depth vastly improved. Croyle could once again stink, but it's reasonable to assume he'll improve; and even if he doesn't, he stunk last year and that alone won't kill LJ.)Let's put it this way: If LJ stays healthy, he's getting 300 carries. And in those 300 carries, I fully expect him to get 1100+ yards - and that's conservative. Over 16 games, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll top 40 catches for 30+ yards and has 50+ catch potential. Touchdowns are a wildcard but you can once again bet your bottom dollar that he'll get plenty of opportunities (and certainly more than Brodie Croyle passing the football).

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency? I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season. And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season. He had a total of 17 passing attempts while LJ was playing. He may not have a negative effect on LJ, but stating that he will not is just wild speculation.I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

Gore won't get the touch's LJ will. If he stays exactly the same as last year (which was horrible by most accounts) he'd finish 7th, in '06 he would've finished 10th, his ranking is 9th in FBG (don't know ADP). Unless you think he's going to get worse or get hurt he's a good value this year. If the line improves and/or Croyle improves he becomes a very good value and top 5 back.

Says who? Their coach and OC have already been talking about making sure their best play makers (Gore and VD) get more touches. Gore averaged 21/gm last year, I think a 4 touch spike would be reasonable. Any more than that and the injury risk increases more and more. LJ may get more than 25/gm, but I think the increase in short term production is offset by the increased likelihood of being injured.Gore was a popular first round pick, finished in that same neighborhood (7-10, don't have the exact numbers with me) as LJ would have finished had his numbers held up for a full season, and owners were frustrated. Why? A lower ppg and a lot of pts concentrated within a smaller sample of games, something LJ was showing signs of. What do Gore and LJ have in common? A lot, they're both bruising, physical backs that play every down, are the focal point of their respective offense, have an awful QB under center, bad OLines to run behind, bad offenses in general, poor coaching, a questionable defense, and have really only been big time producers in one full season. We have a pretty good idea of what we're going to get out of these guys, we don't out of guys like Marshawn, MB3, Ryan Grant, MJD, etc. That said, we do know that the Grant's and the Graham's are capable of at least matching LJ, they're more valuable because there's reason to believe they're capable of more. Possibly, a lot more.

So 21 touch's is safe injury wise but 25 is dangerous, ok. All that stuff to me is meaningless. You can show me whatever study you want but give me the RB who gets the ball. So why did ADP get hurt then? or how about Caddy? or L. Jordan? etc. Look at the history, LJ will be at the top or near in touch's with Herm at the helm. Just run the #'s and the expected ypc at various carry levels, LJ is a good value where he's drafted now despite the potential anemic offense. I was screaming the same thing about McGahee and Portis last year... use the search and see. To throw Graham's name in there is an insult. Graham = Betts. Grant's situation has changed drastically (and I own Grant in the same league as I own LJ). We know what the Graham's and Grant's are capable of in all of what 8 games each? cmon. That's silly. LJ is sooooooooo much more talented than either one of those backs it's crazy. LJ is a proven elite back who's going to get the ball a TON whether it be in the running or passing game.

 

[MAC_32]

He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

Once again, his first eight games doubled makes him entirely worth a first-round pick -- and he'd have upside. If people think KC's overall offense will be worse in '08, they really need to actually watch last year's unit and then take a look at their current roster. (WR corps vastly improved, OL vastly improved, RB depth vastly improved, TE depth vastly improved. Croyle could once again stink, but it's reasonable to assume he'll improve; and even if he doesn't, he stunk last year and that alone won't kill LJ.)Let's put it this way: If LJ stays healthy, he's getting 300 carries. And in those 300 carries, I fully expect him to get 1100+ yards - and that's conservative. Over 16 games, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll top 40 catches for 30+ yards and has 50+ catch potential. Touchdowns are a wildcard but you can once again bet your bottom dollar that he'll get plenty of opportunities (and certainly more than Brodie Croyle passing the football).

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency? I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season. And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season. He had a total of 17 passing attempts while LJ was playing. He may not have a negative effect on LJ, but stating that he will not is just wild speculation.I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

Gore won't get the touch's LJ will. If he stays exactly the same as last year (which was horrible by most accounts) he'd finish 7th, in '06 he would've finished 10th, his ranking is 9th in FBG (don't know ADP). Unless you think he's going to get worse or get hurt he's a good value this year. If the line improves and/or Croyle improves he becomes a very good value and top 5 back.

Says who? Their coach and OC have already been talking about making sure their best play makers (Gore and VD) get more touches. Gore averaged 21/gm last year, I think a 4 touch spike would be reasonable. Any more than that and the injury risk increases more and more. LJ may get more than 25/gm, but I think the increase in short term production is offset by the increased likelihood of being injured.Gore was a popular first round pick, finished in that same neighborhood (7-10, don't have the exact numbers with me) as LJ would have finished had his numbers held up for a full season, and owners were frustrated. Why? A lower ppg and a lot of pts concentrated within a smaller sample of games, something LJ was showing signs of. What do Gore and LJ have in common? A lot, they're both bruising, physical backs that play every down, are the focal point of their respective offense, have an awful QB under center, bad OLines to run behind, bad offenses in general, poor coaching, a questionable defense, and have really only been big time producers in one full season. We have a pretty good idea of what we're going to get out of these guys, we don't out of guys like Marshawn, MB3, Ryan Grant, MJD, etc. That said, we do know that the Grant's and the Graham's are capable of at least matching LJ, they're more valuable because there's reason to believe they're capable of more. Possibly, a lot more.

Look at the history. LJ will be at the top or near in touch's with Herm at the helm. Just run the #'s and the expected ypc at various carry levels, LJ is a good value where he's drafted now despite the potential anemic offense. I was screaming the same thing about McGahee and Portis last year... use the search and see. To throw Graham's name in there is an insult. Graham = Betts. Grant's situation has changed drastically (and I own Grant in the same league as I own LJ). We know what the Graham's and Grant's are capable of in all of what 8 games each? cmon. That's silly. LJ is sooooooooo much more talented than either one of those backs it's crazy. LJ is a proven elite back who's going to get the ball a TON whether it be in the running or passing game.

His ypc was 3.5 last season, if that's not improved he won't have an opportunity to run that much because they won't be getting many 1st downs, won't possess the ball very long, and will likely fall behind quickly (due to leaning on a poor defense and Croyle) and have to throw. I was screaming similar things about Portis last year too, but Washington's offense in 07 is not comparible to KC's offense in 08 - Portis had some semblance of talent surrounding him, on both sides of the ball.I believe Grant did it in 12 games, for what it's worth. Graham? Well, he accomplished more in half a season than Caddy did in three (he also isn't recovering from a blown out knee) and his remaining competition is a slow 32 year old scat back. I obviously value opportunity and surrounding talent more than you do, could they implode and be reduced to a split situation? could they get injured? Sure, but we don't know what their respective ceiling's are, we know they can match LJ though. Again, LJ's only done it over a full season one time, how "proven" is that really?

 

[Banger]

He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

Once again, his first eight games doubled makes him entirely worth a first-round pick -- and he'd have upside. If people think KC's overall offense will be worse in '08, they really need to actually watch last year's unit and then take a look at their current roster. (WR corps vastly improved, OL vastly improved, RB depth vastly improved, TE depth vastly improved. Croyle could once again stink, but it's reasonable to assume he'll improve; and even if he doesn't, he stunk last year and that alone won't kill LJ.)Let's put it this way: If LJ stays healthy, he's getting 300 carries. And in those 300 carries, I fully expect him to get 1100+ yards - and that's conservative. Over 16 games, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll top 40 catches for 30+ yards and has 50+ catch potential. Touchdowns are a wildcard but you can once again bet your bottom dollar that he'll get plenty of opportunities (and certainly more than Brodie Croyle passing the football).

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency? I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season. And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season. He had a total of 17 passing attempts while LJ was playing. He may not have a negative effect on LJ, but stating that he will not is just wild speculation.I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

Gore won't get the touch's LJ will. If he stays exactly the same as last year (which was horrible by most accounts) he'd finish 7th, in '06 he would've finished 10th, his ranking is 9th in FBG (don't know ADP). Unless you think he's going to get worse or get hurt he's a good value this year. If the line improves and/or Croyle improves he becomes a very good value and top 5 back.

Says who? Their coach and OC have already been talking about making sure their best play makers (Gore and VD) get more touches. Gore averaged 21/gm last year, I think a 4 touch spike would be reasonable. Any more than that and the injury risk increases more and more. LJ may get more than 25/gm, but I think the increase in short term production is offset by the increased likelihood of being injured.Gore was a popular first round pick, finished in that same neighborhood (7-10, don't have the exact numbers with me) as LJ would have finished had his numbers held up for a full season, and owners were frustrated. Why? A lower ppg and a lot of pts concentrated within a smaller sample of games, something LJ was showing signs of. What do Gore and LJ have in common? A lot, they're both bruising, physical backs that play every down, are the focal point of their respective offense, have an awful QB under center, bad OLines to run behind, bad offenses in general, poor coaching, a questionable defense, and have really only been big time producers in one full season. We have a pretty good idea of what we're going to get out of these guys, we don't out of guys like Marshawn, MB3, Ryan Grant, MJD, etc. That said, we do know that the Grant's and the Graham's are capable of at least matching LJ, they're more valuable because there's reason to believe they're capable of more. Possibly, a lot more.

Look at the history. LJ will be at the top or near in touch's with Herm at the helm. Just run the #'s and the expected ypc at various carry levels, LJ is a good value where he's drafted now despite the potential anemic offense. I was screaming the same thing about McGahee and Portis last year... use the search and see. To throw Graham's name in there is an insult. Graham = Betts. Grant's situation has changed drastically (and I own Grant in the same league as I own LJ). We know what the Graham's and Grant's are capable of in all of what 8 games each? cmon. That's silly. LJ is sooooooooo much more talented than either one of those backs it's crazy. LJ is a proven elite back who's going to get the ball a TON whether it be in the running or passing game.

His ypc was 3.5 last season, if that's not improved he won't have an opportunity to run that much because they won't be getting many 1st downs, won't possess the ball very long, and will likely fall behind quickly (due to leaning on a poor defense and Croyle) and have to throw. I was screaming similar things about Portis last year too, but Washington's offense in 07 is not comparible to KC's offense in 08 - Portis had some semblance of talent surrounding him, on both sides of the ball.I believe Grant did it in 12 games, for what it's worth. Graham? Well, he accomplished more in half a season than Caddy did in three (he also isn't recovering from a blown out knee) and his remaining competition is a slow 32 year old scat back. I obviously value opportunity and surrounding talent more than you do, could they implode and be reduced to a split situation? could they get injured? Sure, but we don't know what their respective ceiling's are, we know they can match LJ though. Again, LJ's only done it over a full season one time, how "proven" is that really?

I do value surrounding talent and his certainly can't be worse than last year and there is no better opportunity than LJ has (he'll be in the top 2-3 in touches). My point is last year he did have a terrible ypc, he was in those terrible down and distance situations, they were behind early and he was still on pace to be the #7 back thru half a season (with much easier teams on schedule in the 2nd half). If they can't run it and they're down, they'll pass it to him (see his 30 receptions in 8 games). He is their offense.

 

[The Jacket]

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.

Bowe only gets better, Will Franklin trumps any other WR they had last year, and Devard Darling is better than Samie f'in Parker.

TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency?

Brad Cottam >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a broken down Jason Dunn.

I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season.

I never said he WILL improve. Can you read? And a 1:1 TD:INT ratio isn't that "awful" out of first-year starter.

And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season.

You're right; LJ had the fortune to play with Damon Huard!

I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

I'm not sure what this irrelevant comparison has to do with anything. Point is, a healthy LJ is a hell of a bet for 1100+ rushing yards, 300+ receiving yards and a handful of touches. If he can avoid that fluke injury, there's really no question that he'll be a top ten back. You're completely ignorant when it comes to the Chiefs. No clue whatsoever. Feel free to think LJ either gets his foot caught under another LB or has an otherwise unfortunate injury, or that he'll stay healthy and rush for, like, 800 yards in 16 games ( ), but don't pretend to know anything about the players on KC's roster. You clearly don't.

 

[The Jacket]

... and have really only been big time producers in one full season.

Wow. You are just completely clueless. Larry Johnson has only been a "big-time" producer for one full season.

 

[Bojang0301]

He'll get a ton of touches and will have more good games than bad, but if the beginning of last season was any indication his bad games could be pretty ugly.

Once again, his first eight games doubled makes him entirely worth a first-round pick -- and he'd have upside. If people think KC's overall offense will be worse in '08, they really need to actually watch last year's unit and then take a look at their current roster. (WR corps vastly improved, OL vastly improved, RB depth vastly improved, TE depth vastly improved. Croyle could once again stink, but it's reasonable to assume he'll improve; and even if he doesn't, he stunk last year and that alone won't kill LJ.)Let's put it this way: If LJ stays healthy, he's getting 300 carries. And in those 300 carries, I fully expect him to get 1100+ yards - and that's conservative. Over 16 games, you can bet your bottom dollar he'll top 40 catches for 30+ yards and has 50+ catch potential. Touchdowns are a wildcard but you can once again bet your bottom dollar that he'll get plenty of opportunities (and certainly more than Brodie Croyle passing the football).

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency? I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season. And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season. He had a total of 17 passing attempts while LJ was playing. He may not have a negative effect on LJ, but stating that he will not is just wild speculation.I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

Gore won't get the touch's LJ will. If he stays exactly the same as last year (which was horrible by most accounts) he'd finish 7th, in '06 he would've finished 10th, his ranking is 9th in FBG (don't know ADP). Unless you think he's going to get worse or get hurt he's a good value this year. If the line improves and/or Croyle improves he becomes a very good value and top 5 back.

Says who? Their coach and OC have already been talking about making sure their best play makers (Gore and VD) get more touches. Gore averaged 21/gm last year, I think a 4 touch spike would be reasonable. Any more than that and the injury risk increases more and more. LJ may get more than 25/gm, but I think the increase in short term production is offset by the increased likelihood of being injured.Gore was a popular first round pick, finished in that same neighborhood (7-10, don't have the exact numbers with me) as LJ would have finished had his numbers held up for a full season, and owners were frustrated. Why? A lower ppg and a lot of pts concentrated within a smaller sample of games, something LJ was showing signs of. What do Gore and LJ have in common? A lot, they're both bruising, physical backs that play every down, are the focal point of their respective offense, have an awful QB under center, bad OLines to run behind, bad offenses in general, poor coaching, a questionable defense, and have really only been big time producers in one full season. We have a pretty good idea of what we're going to get out of these guys, we don't out of guys like Marshawn, MB3, Ryan Grant, MJD, etc. That said, we do know that the Grant's and the Graham's are capable of at least matching LJ, they're more valuable because there's reason to believe they're capable of more. Possibly, a lot more.

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. No way does Martz all of a sudden start running the ball and using his TE. NO WAY. I will sig bet on it if you want to. Gore will not get 25 touches a game.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I'm hearing lots of people talking about how being behind makes a team abandon the rush. While this is somewhat true, the numbers don't tell the whole story. Moreso than lessening your rushing attempts, being behind lessens your total offensive plays. A perfect example of this were the Patriots last year. It seems like Tom Brady threw the ball on every play, right? But who would've guessed that the Patriots finished 9th in rushing attempts? There are many reasons that only 2 of the top 10 FF RB's from last year were on losing teams, but having your offense being able to stay on the field is a reason many disregard. Of the top 10 teams in carry attempts in 2007, only OAK and CAR had losing seasons; of the bottom 10, only GB had a winning season. It was no different in 2006, as 2 teams in the top 10 had losing seasons (ATL and WAS) and 1 team in the bottom had a winning season (PHI). It's hard to rack up carries while your defense is on the field.

 

[Banger]

I'm hearing lots of people talking about how being behind makes a team abandon the rush. While this is somewhat true, the numbers don't tell the whole story. Moreso than lessening your rushing attempts, being behind lessens your total offensive plays. A perfect example of this were the Patriots last year. It seems like Tom Brady threw the ball on every play, right? But who would've guessed that the Patriots finished 9th in rushing attempts? There are many reasons that only 2 of the top 10 FF RB's from last year were on losing teams, but having your offense being able to stay on the field is a reason many disregard. Of the top 10 teams in carry attempts in 2007, only OAK and CAR had losing seasons; of the bottom 10, only GB had a winning season. It was no different in 2006, as 2 teams in the top 10 had losing seasons (ATL and WAS) and 1 team in the bottom had a winning season (PHI). It's hard to rack up carries while your defense is on the field.

That's fine but LJ was on pace last year to have the most touch's in the NFL. He'll get a larger % of touches of any RB in the league. He is their best player and will get the ball a ton. It doesn't matter if their winning or losing, he'll always be on the field either getting handoffs or thrown to out of the backfield.

 

[winwithike]

I'm hearing lots of people talking about how being behind makes a team abandon the rush. While this is somewhat true, the numbers don't tell the whole story. Moreso than lessening your rushing attempts, being behind lessens your total offensive plays. A perfect example of this were the Patriots last year. It seems like Tom Brady threw the ball on every play, right? But who would've guessed that the Patriots finished 9th in rushing attempts? There are many reasons that only 2 of the top 10 FF RB's from last year were on losing teams, but having your offense being able to stay on the field is a reason many disregard. Of the top 10 teams in carry attempts in 2007, only OAK and CAR had losing seasons; of the bottom 10, only GB had a winning season. It was no different in 2006, as 2 teams in the top 10 had losing seasons (ATL and WAS) and 1 team in the bottom had a winning season (PHI). It's hard to rack up carries while your defense is on the field.

That's fine but LJ was on pace last year to have the most touch's in the NFL. He'll get a larger % of touches of any RB in the league. He is their best player and will get the ball a ton. It doesn't matter if their winning or losing, he'll always be on the field either getting handoffs or thrown to out of the backfield.

This I'm not too sure of. I expect Charles to get enough carries to keep LJ fresh, and wouldn't be totally shocked if Smith got a series a game as well.

 

[Banger]

I'm hearing lots of people talking about how being behind makes a team abandon the rush. While this is somewhat true, the numbers don't tell the whole story. Moreso than lessening your rushing attempts, being behind lessens your total offensive plays. A perfect example of this were the Patriots last year. It seems like Tom Brady threw the ball on every play, right? But who would've guessed that the Patriots finished 9th in rushing attempts? There are many reasons that only 2 of the top 10 FF RB's from last year were on losing teams, but having your offense being able to stay on the field is a reason many disregard. Of the top 10 teams in carry attempts in 2007, only OAK and CAR had losing seasons; of the bottom 10, only GB had a winning season. It was no different in 2006, as 2 teams in the top 10 had losing seasons (ATL and WAS) and 1 team in the bottom had a winning season (PHI). It's hard to rack up carries while your defense is on the field.

That's fine but LJ was on pace last year to have the most touch's in the NFL. He'll get a larger % of touches of any RB in the league. He is their best player and will get the ball a ton. It doesn't matter if their winning or losing, he'll always be on the field either getting handoffs or thrown to out of the backfield.

This I'm not too sure of. I expect Charles to get enough carries to keep LJ fresh, and wouldn't be totally shocked if Smith got a series a game as well.

How would that be much different than any other RB. He's not going to get every carry but he'll still be at or near the top in touches and if they run fewer plays that will result in a higher %.

 

[winwithike]

I'm hearing lots of people talking about how being behind makes a team abandon the rush. While this is somewhat true, the numbers don't tell the whole story. Moreso than lessening your rushing attempts, being behind lessens your total offensive plays. A perfect example of this were the Patriots last year. It seems like Tom Brady threw the ball on every play, right? But who would've guessed that the Patriots finished 9th in rushing attempts? There are many reasons that only 2 of the top 10 FF RB's from last year were on losing teams, but having your offense being able to stay on the field is a reason many disregard. Of the top 10 teams in carry attempts in 2007, only OAK and CAR had losing seasons; of the bottom 10, only GB had a winning season. It was no different in 2006, as 2 teams in the top 10 had losing seasons (ATL and WAS) and 1 team in the bottom had a winning season (PHI). It's hard to rack up carries while your defense is on the field.

That's fine but LJ was on pace last year to have the most touch's in the NFL. He'll get a larger % of touches of any RB in the league. He is their best player and will get the ball a ton. It doesn't matter if their winning or losing, he'll always be on the field either getting handoffs or thrown to out of the backfield.

This I'm not too sure of. I expect Charles to get enough carries to keep LJ fresh, and wouldn't be totally shocked if Smith got a series a game as well.

How would that be much different than any other RB. He's not going to get every carry but he'll still be at or near the top in touches and if they run fewer plays that will result in a higher %.

It's not much different than any other RB, but it is much different than it has been for LJ in the past. LJ didn't used to be like other backs, before his injury noone else was getting any carries at all. He will still get his, but if hes getting 10-15% less carries than hes had in the past then his numbers are going to take a hit.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Gailey was able to produce a running game at Ga Tech behind some fairly weak D-1 offensive lines. P.J Daniels and Tashard Choice both led the ACC in rushing while Tony Hollings was leading the nation before season-ending injury. This was all behind some very lightly recruited and often very undersized linemen.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Chan Gailey will have no problem boosting the rushing attack from 2007. Why not? Because KC aired it out more than 29 other teams last year. They passed on 62% of their plays. Only DET (66%) and NO (63%) were higher. There were 10 teams that threw 60% or more of the time. Not surprisingly, only GB had a winning record.

 

[MAC_32]

WR corps vastly improved? I'd be willing to bet against that, Bowe's good and may be a future star but after that there isn't anything, not this year anyway.

Bowe only gets better, Will Franklin trumps any other WR they had last year, and Devard Darling is better than Samie f'in Parker.

TE depth vastly improved? Again, where? Didn't they lose their TE2 to free agency?

Brad Cottam >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a broken down Jason Dunn.

I don't know what makes you think Croyle will improve, just because he has another season under him doesn't mean he still doesn't suck. He was awful on the field last season.

I never said he WILL improve. Can you read? And a 1:1 TD:INT ratio isn't that "awful" out of first-year starter.

And his sucking had no effect on LJ because he didn't get the opportunity to suck on the field until after LJ was lost for the season.

You're right; LJ had the fortune to play with Damon Huard!

I just don't see how one can expect better numbers from LJ than they did from Frank Gore last season, and if memory serves most Gore owners last year were very frustrated throughout the season with their RB1.

I'm not sure what this irrelevant comparison has to do with anything. Point is, a healthy LJ is a hell of a bet for 1100+ rushing yards, 300+ receiving yards and a handful of touches. If he can avoid that fluke injury, there's really no question that he'll be a top ten back. You're completely ignorant when it comes to the Chiefs. No clue whatsoever. Feel free to think LJ either gets his foot caught under another LB or has an otherwise unfortunate injury, or that he'll stay healthy and rush for, like, 800 yards in 16 games ( ), but don't pretend to know anything about the players on KC's roster. You clearly don't.

To each their own, but a 2nd day rookie wide out and a castoff from Baltimore isn't my idea of "vastly improved."Likewise, a rookie TE is no upgrade over just about any other option. Could he? Sure, but to expect it would be playing with fire.A 1:1 TD:INT ratio is bad, first year starter, fourth year guy, grizzled vet - it's still bad, and I was referring to his play on the field more than anything. Numbers aside Croyle looked lost and bad out there. Damon Huard > Brodie Croyle.I was comparing a stud RB on an anemic offense with terrible QB play in 07 to a stud RB on what I expect to be an anemic offense with terrible QB play in 08. What's irrelevant about that?Ignorant? You're funny. Now take your obvious homer goggles off and look at your team from the outside. It's ugly.

 

[MAC_32]

... and have really only been big time producers in one full season.

Wow. You are just completely clueless. Larry Johnson has only been a "big-time" producer for one full season.

LJ played minimally in 03, had a similar role in 04 until Priest went down and LJ stepped up in the final month, was on the light end of a RBBC in 05 until Priest's injury and then got the full load, was the guy in 06 (his only full season of feature back work), and then broke down halfway through an ineffective 07.Clueless? Not so much, .

 

[Tanner9919]

Pounding the rock + horrible O line = mediocre numbers for LJ

Mediocre for LJ is still better than probably 85% of the NFL RB's.Chan Gailey took a Pitt offense that ranked 5th in attempts and 12th in yards(1995), to 2nd in att, and 2nd in yards in 1996.In 1997,they ranked #1 in both categories.In 2000, Chan Gailey took a journeyman named Lamar Smith and turned him into a 1139 yard, 16 TD(14 rush, 2 rec) machine..I recall people saying the Dolphins had a lousy line back in 2000.. Also , the Chiefs play the 5th easiest SOS against the run, for whatever thats worth..I don't think he's going to rush for 1700 yards, but , I do think he'll remain a top 5 RB.335/1407/164.2 avg..

 

[Banger]

Pounding the rock + horrible O line = mediocre numbers for LJ

Mediocre for LJ is still better than probably 85% of the NFL RB's.Chan Gailey took a Pitt offense that ranked 5th in attempts and 12th in yards(1995), to 2nd in att, and 2nd in yards in 1996.In 1997,they ranked #1 in both categories.In 2000, Chan Gailey took a journeyman named Lamar Smith and turned him into a 1139 yard, 16 TD(14 rush, 2 rec) machine..I recall people saying the Dolphins had a lousy line back in 2000.. Also , the Chiefs play the 5th easiest SOS against the run, for whatever thats worth..I don't think he's going to rush for 1700 yards, but , I do think he'll remain a top 5 RB.335/1407/164.2 avg..

16 td's? I have a tough time seeing that. I think 10-11 would be a very good year. LT was the only RB with more than 15 last year with 18 (15+3).