Buy Low RBs for 2011 (1 Viewer)

[wiscstlatlmia]

Name some guys you think could emerge next year (aka Foster, Mcfadden)

Ill start it off:

Deangelo Williams- I realize hes a known commodity already but I am pretty sure his stock is low enough that

he can be had for very solid value at this point.

Michael Bush- Depending on where he goes guy could be a stud. Also surprisingly good hands for a power back.

Has the potential to be a poor mans Steven Jackson.

Beanie Wells- No one ever questions the talent. But can he put it together? if so i think hes a top 10 guy

Felix Jones- Depending on how the carries split up with him and choice. He could emerge as and has Jamaal Charles

like quickness and moves

James Starks- From what ive heard so far from packers homers is that if this guy can stay healthy he is the real deal

and has a very good shot at being the main ball carrier in Green Bay(which is a great situation).

 

[I was in the pool]

regardless of his destination, D.Williams, assuming he is the starter, will be undervalued going into 2011.

B.Wells is a worthwhile investment because he is dirt cheap and still has the talent/potential to be a top 10 RB in 2011 or 2012 if he gets it together/stays healthy.

F.Jones gets one more chance from me in 2011 with Barber likely to be out of town and Jerry Jones loves him, but 8 TDs in 400 career touches and Choice getting GL stuff in 2010 is worrisome.

M.Bush, like D.Williams, will be undervalued if he has a good shot at a featured role on a new team.

Instead of Starks, I am thinking Grant will be undervalued in 2011 because most are writing him off too soon. This guy ran for 1200+ yards in 2008 and 2009 and will be 28 in 2011. Something and someone to keep track of in the off-season.

One more.....B.Green-Ellis. check out his numbers in 2010 - they surprised me as I didn't own him in any league. If his role is the same in 2011, he will be undervalued at almost every draft.

 

[jojoh07]

Shonn Greene

 

[Kiddnets]

I think S Greene will have the year in 2011 that he was supposed to have in 2010...but at much cheaper price

 

[footballguy#1]

Agree with Bush, Williams, Greene, and Wells. In that order.

Disagree with Starks and Jones. In that order.

 

[Phantom Knight]

Names you didn't mention on my dynasty radar.

[*]Tashard Choice. Not certain of his contract situation, but believe there is a chance he could leave Dallas?

[*]Montario Hardesty. Obviously health is an issue.

[*]Mike Goodson. Assuming De Angelo leaves.

[*]Joe McKnight. Stay healthy and beat out LT.

[*]James Davis. Long shot with Torain. End of bench flyer

[*]Jahvid Best. His value is not likely to ever be lower.

 

[J-Dawg]

I like Montario Hardesty next year too. Hillis wore down in the latter part of the season that it looks like he may not be getting all of the touches next year. He put up big enough numbers though that people may view him as the bellcow still making Hardesty a nice undervalued guy with some upside.

 

[Warhogs]

I will through out another name not mentioned in Jason Snelling. I believe he is an UFA and may have a shot at finding a starting role.

 

[finito]

Spiller time?

 

[J-Dawg]

Spiller time?

Not yet if you ask me. He showed virtually nothing this year while Jackson had yet another productive season. I expect him to be more involved than he was in his rookie season, but I still view him as a clear back-up and not a committee guy.

 

[LC512]

I'm going to be all over Jahvid Best, especially if they improve the line (you have to think they have to).

I believe in his talent, and he'll be "the guy" when healthy.

Situation eerily identical to McFadden prior to this year (except that Smith/Morris are worse than Mike Bush)

 

[Phantom Knight]

Spiller time?

Not yet if you ask me. He showed virtually nothing this year while Jackson had yet another productive season. I expect him to be more involved than he was in his rookie season, but I still view him as a clear back-up and not a committee guy.

But almost certainly ONE of either Jackson or Spiller will emerge next year. And both are likely to be undervalued.

 

[I was in the pool]

I will through out another name not mentioned in Jason Snelling. I believe he is an UFA and may have a shot at finding a starting role.

I watch every snap of the Falcons' games. Snelling has far more value in Atlanta than anywhere else. They have a good run-blocking line and he functions best in a reserve role (with occasion fill-in starts). I was going through the teams with RB needs and I can't really pin down a destination for D.Williams, let alone Snelling. I say Atlanta pays him enough (with a hometown discount) to stay put in 2011.

 

[sparkky]

I sat on Bush all this season and will keep him in 2 dynasty leagues because of his talent and contract.

I also have Choice on my radar. I'll be very surprised if big D keeps all 3 rb's.

 

[doubletrouble]

Danny Ware

 

[ClownDogs]

I think tolbert could someday(sooner rather than later) become a turner type RB.

 

[Beetlejuice]

Danny Ware

Agree on Ware as I can't be convinced at this point that Jacobs is back next season regardless of his 2010 effortsAgree on Shonn Greene. LT will likely be back I would assume, but I doubt in as much of a role as he had in 2010Bernard Scott is always a possibility depending on Ced BensonAnthony Dixon is also somebody who has a shot to be relevant depending on Gore's recovery

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Deep dive into the WW...

Joe McKnight, Charles Scott, Jeremiah Johnson and Tyrell Sutton.

 

[stp-d]

I'll be going after BJGE as he's sure to go lower than his top 15 ability as everyone will reach on the shiney new toys...

 

[chihawk]

I'll be going after BJGE as he's sure to go lower than his top 15 ability as everyone will reach on the shiney new toys...

I would agree with you, but it all depends on what the Patriots do in the off-season at the RB position. They could very well drop one or two of their existing backs (Taylor for ex.) and add someone else that catches fire in that offense...either through the draft or trade. With as many draft picks as they have, I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a pretty good RB prospect.

 

[TheWick]

Ryan Mathews - when healthy he is impressive

 

[moderated]

I think tolbert could someday(sooner rather than later) become a turner type RB.

Tolbert may have a similar body type, but he lacks all the other qualities (outside of power) that turner posseses.Turner has great instincts, vision, and used to have great speed. Tolbert lacks those qualities.Tolbert had a leron mcclain type year and likely won't ever be given the role he had this year again.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I'll be going after BJGE as he's sure to go lower than his top 15 ability as everyone will reach on the shiney new toys...

I would agree with you, but it all depends on what the Patriots do in the off-season at the RB position. They could very well drop one or two of their existing backs (Taylor for ex.) and add someone else that catches fire in that offense...either through the draft or trade. With as many draft picks as they have, I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a pretty good RB prospect.

Strongly disagree that BJGE is top 15 in ability. He was barely top 15 in points. I would agree he's got a Ryan Grant-esque blend of professionalism, opportunity, and good enough talent to have long term value depending on NE's whimsy.One gamble buy low is Pierre Thomas. Couldn't stay healthy this year but is the complete package. NE had some interest in him last year. His injuries could reduce his salary enough that he resigns with NO. He could be successful anywhere. Pierre and Choice are pretty much my main two pick for player targets when I need RB, seeing how low the price can get. (Not that they're the best guys but the best blend of upside and price.)

 

[BobbyLayne]

He's not the first guy you think of in a buy low conversation, but Shady was the #8 back this year, #3 in PPR.

When Ray Rice had a similar sophomore season, he was a consensus 3rd/4th pick overall.

Is anybody projecting McCoy as a top five pick in 2011?

 

[stp-d]

I'll be going after BJGE as he's sure to go lower than his top 15 ability as everyone will reach on the shiney new toys...

I would agree with you, but it all depends on what the Patriots do in the off-season at the RB position. They could very well drop one or two of their existing backs (Taylor for ex.) and add someone else that catches fire in that offense...either through the draft or trade. With as many draft picks as they have, I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a pretty good RB prospect.

Strongly disagree that BJGE is top 15 in ability. He was barely top 15 in points. I would agree he's got a Ryan Grant-esque blend of professionalism, opportunity, and good enough talent to have long term value depending on NE's whimsy.

So i guess top 15 ability would be better stated, top 15 opportunity... I would go with that...

 

[stp-d]

He's not the first guy you think of in a buy low conversation, but Shady was the #8 back this year, #3 in PPR.When Ray Rice had a similar sophomore season, he was a consensus 3rd/4th pick overall.Is anybody projecting McCoy as a top five pick in 2011?

In PPR dynasty, i'm expecting him to go very close to top 5.. I don't think there will be a clear consensus top 3-5 rb's in dynasty startups, but Mccoy will probably be a common theme up there...

 

[Restricted]

Ryan Mathews - when healthy he is impressive

How low do you expect to get him. Prolly the 1st RB picked if not the 1st overall in most dynasty rook drafts this year. As big as the investment was, you'll prolly still have to pay.

 

[moderated]

Ryan Mathews - when healthy he is impressive

How low do you expect to get him. Prolly the 1st RB picked if not the 1st overall in most dynasty rook drafts this year. As big as the investment was, you'll prolly still have to pay.

agree, anyone wanting to buy mathews low probably missed out, his last game gave hope to those who drafted him 1.1, they aren't gonna give up on him cheap.

 

[plyka]

He's not the first guy you think of in a buy low conversation, but Shady was the #8 back this year, #3 in PPR.When Ray Rice had a similar sophomore season, he was a consensus 3rd/4th pick overall.Is anybody projecting McCoy as a top five pick in 2011?

I absolutely love mccoy. In ppr, he is a top 5 back. In dynasty leagues, I would only take adp over mccoy. He has incredible talent in my eyes.

 

[moderated]

He's not the first guy you think of in a buy low conversation, but Shady was the #8 back this year, #3 in PPR.When Ray Rice had a similar sophomore season, he was a consensus 3rd/4th pick overall.Is anybody projecting McCoy as a top five pick in 2011?

I absolutely love mccoy. In ppr, he is a top 5 back. In dynasty leagues, I would only take adp over mccoy. He has incredible talent in my eyes.

yes, don't see mccoy as a buy low as no one is selling him at anything less then a top 5 dynasty player.

 

[Spike]

He's not the first guy you think of in a buy low conversation, but Shady was the #8 back this year, #3 in PPR.When Ray Rice had a similar sophomore season, he was a consensus 3rd/4th pick overall.Is anybody projecting McCoy as a top five pick in 2011?

I absolutely love mccoy. In ppr, he is a top 5 back. In dynasty leagues, I would only take adp over mccoy. He has incredible talent in my eyes.

yes, don't see mccoy as a buy low as no one is selling him at anything less then a top 5 dynasty player.

 

[FUBAR]

I'm going to be all over Jahvid Best, especially if they improve the line (you have to think they have to).I believe in his talent, and he'll be "the guy" when healthy.Situation eerily identical to McFadden prior to this year (except that Smith/Morris are worse than Mike Bush)

McFadden barely had 600 total yards in 2009 and less than 800 as a rookie. He had shown very little IMO. Best has shown the ability to be elite and exceeded 1,000 as a rookie. I just don't think the situations are that similar, and Best will probably be expensive.

 

[Tanner9919]

Ryan Torain - if he completes a full 16 game schedule this guy can/will be lethal.

L. Blount - avg'd 5 yards per carry and broke 1000 yards this season..

Fred Jackson - will be the starting RB on team with an improving offense, and FJ was surprisingly productive this season.

J Ringer - CJ's legs have seen a lot of action the past two seasons, Ringer should get more opportunities as time goes by.

 

[Shutout]

Best-As a Best owner in a few leagues, going on my own experiences, I have to think that he will be overall undervalued. People who own him (like me), are pretty polar on this one. We either think of him as being injury prone or we think he will get healthy and explode. I am in the 2nd camp because I never bought the injury prone talk to start with (doesn't mean I am right, just saying that was my stance from the beginning). I then felt great after the first two games and thought I had the R.O.Y. Then came the turf toes (plural) and, if you have ever had turf toe, you KNOW...for him to even be able to do what he did with dual Turf toes is pretty telling that he is tougher than advertised and pretty talented. Factor in the Lions' QB and defensive injuries and I'm willing to roll with Best again and see what the Lions can do if they stay healthy.

Snelling-I'm not 100% sure of his contract situation, etc but I know he could be an impact next year for someone. But I don't see him as a long-term guy so he's a guy I look at as "just for next year".

Joe McKnight-This is the kid every Shonn Greene owner MUST have. He is going to be the compliment to Greene next year and he can roll on his own if Greene can't go at some point. He got a bad rep (deservedly) and still has a way to go but I can definitely see why this guy was the #1 RB prospect coming out of high school. He gives you more than you would think (at times) and the situation is now good.

Lex Hillard-I'm going DEEP into the vault on this one and only mention him because I seriously doubt anyone would bring him up since there are so many obvious guys to talk about (Goodson, Sutton, Jennings, Bush, etc). IF (huge IF) every single thing aligns just right and the Dolphins don't overhaul their running game, then I don't see how Hillard doesn't get a shot at some point next year. Brown and WIlliams have age, injury history, and just haven't excelled and I can see this guy as a guy that could go from "who is this guy" to a nice story (not Arian Foster nice but along the same types of scenario that plays out).

James Davis-I have liked him more than I should so I'm not ready to jump ship on him. I have thought he would emerge at some point because of Shanahan but I have to temper that with the reality that Shanahan might be what also derails my thought. I still think he will get his chance but we won't know until Shanahan pulls his magic act and "poof"!

Bernard Scott-Love everything about him except where he is. I just don't see cincy giving him the chance and he will be 27 when the season starts. no longer thinking of him as a dynasty stash. Instead, starting to sell him off in leagues where I have him.

 

[zamboni]

Lex Hillard-I'm going DEEP into the vault on this one and only mention him because I seriously doubt anyone would bring him up since there are so many obvious guys to talk about (Goodson, Sutton, Jennings, Bush, etc). IF (huge IF) every single thing aligns just right and the Dolphins don't overhaul their running game, then I don't see how Hillard doesn't get a shot at some point next year. Brown and WIlliams have age, injury history, and just haven't excelled and I can see this guy as a guy that could go from "who is this guy" to a nice story (not Arian Foster nice but along the same types of scenario that plays out).

Interesting call.Down the stretch last year when Brown was out and Ricky was starting to hit the wall, Hilliard got some PT and looked pretty good.

I thought he might get some more reps this year, but he was virtually invisible with Brown and Ricky healthy all year.

That said, I think any window for Hilliard may be closed even if both Ricky and Brown depart. I would guess the team gets a brand new toy via FA or the draft.

 

[FantasyTrader]

He's not the first guy you think of in a buy low conversation, but Shady was the #8 back this year, #3 in PPR.When Ray Rice had a similar sophomore season, he was a consensus 3rd/4th pick overall.Is anybody projecting McCoy as a top five pick in 2011?

I think McCoy is slightly overvalued. He's a bubble top-10 fantasy back and will most definitely be a first round pick in fantasy drafts.

 

[Summer Wheat]

I'm going to be all over Jahvid Best, especially if they improve the line (you have to think they have to).I believe in his talent, and he'll be "the guy" when healthy.Situation eerily identical to McFadden prior to this year (except that Smith/Morris are worse than Mike Bush)

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB and it not nearly as physical as McFadden. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm going to be all over Jahvid Best, especially if they improve the line (you have to think they have to).I believe in his talent, and he'll be "the guy" when healthy.Situation eerily identical to McFadden prior to this year (except that Smith/Morris are worse than Mike Bush)

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

THANK YOU!

 

[Summer Wheat]

I'm going to be all over Jahvid Best, especially if they improve the line (you have to think they have to).I believe in his talent, and he'll be "the guy" when healthy.Situation eerily identical to McFadden prior to this year (except that Smith/Morris are worse than Mike Bush)

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

THANK YOU!

Also edited to say that Best is not nearly as physical a runner as McFadden.

 

[omahabrad]

I'm going to be all over Jahvid Best, especially if they improve the line (you have to think they have to).I believe in his talent, and he'll be "the guy" when healthy.Situation eerily identical to McFadden prior to this year (except that Smith/Morris are worse than Mike Bush)

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

THANK YOU!

Also edited to say that Best is not nearly as physical a runner as McFadden.

One of the complaints about McFadden before this season was that he went down on first contact too easily

 

[thriftyrocker]

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB and it not nearly as physical as McFadden. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

Everytime someone says stuff like this I hear Brian Westbrook and I want to buy Best even more.As a Detroit fan do you think Best is a bust? Saying "a third down RB" seems pretty much like homer pessimism. Even as a committee back I think he is an elite playmaker who will get 15+ touches a game and score 8+ TDs a year.

 

[FantasyTrader]

I'm going to be all over Jahvid Best, especially if they improve the line (you have to think they have to).I believe in his talent, and he'll be "the guy" when healthy.Situation eerily identical to McFadden prior to this year (except that Smith/Morris are worse than Mike Bush)

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

THANK YOU!

Also edited to say that Best is not nearly as physical a runner as McFadden.

One of the complaints about McFadden before this season was that he went down on first contact too easily

I was gonna say. Prior to this year, "McFadden" and "physical" were not two words you'd see in the same sentence other than "physical"ly unable to perform. I'm not saying Best will end up being a good between the tackles RB, but I don't think we can judge him based on what we saw this year. A RB's health can have a lot do with how he moves in traffic and the degree with which he seeks/avoids contact.

 

[Summer Wheat]

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB and it not nearly as physical as McFadden. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

Everytime someone says stuff like this I hear Brian Westbrook and I want to buy Best even more.As a Detroit fan do you think Best is a bust? Saying "a third down RB" seems pretty much like homer pessimism. Even as a committee back I think he is an elite playmaker who will get 15+ touches a game and score 8+ TDs a year.

No, I don`t think Best is a bust at all. Best has great speed and quickness but gets blown up between the tackles. If the Lions use Best correctly he will be a solid RBBC back. I don`t see Best getting the goal line work next year. The Lions did not have much talent at RB and were forced to use Best more than they would have liked early on. Pretty sure the Lions will be looking at bringing in another RB.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Best might be best in combined yardage leagues, I think that any TDs would be off of passes or long break out runs.

 

[Kiddnets]

As for McKnight - dont see him doing much in 2011 as the Jets will likely squeeze one more year out of LT but I think he will be the Greene compliment in 2012.

 

[Concept Coop]

I was gonna say. Prior to this year, "McFadden" and "physical" were not two words you'd see in the same sentence other than "physical"ly unable to perform. I'm not saying Best will end up being a good between the tackles RB, but I don't think we can judge him based on what we saw this year. A RB's health can have a lot do with how he moves in traffic and the degree with which he seeks/avoids contact.

McFadden is bigger and stronger than Best and always has been.If it is not too early to claim he is a buy low, it is not too early to suggest otherwise. If you want to talk about a buy low from the class, it has to be CJ Spiller. He was thought to be the better talent, he just happened to end up in NFL hell. Best hasn't proven any more than CJ, he just got more chances.

 

[FUBAR]

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB and it not nearly as physical as McFadden. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

Everytime someone says stuff like this I hear Brian Westbrook and I want to buy Best even more.As a Detroit fan do you think Best is a bust? Saying "a third down RB" seems pretty much like homer pessimism. Even as a committee back I think he is an elite playmaker who will get 15+ touches a game and score 8+ TDs a year.

No, I don`t think Best is a bust at all. Best has great speed and quickness but gets blown up between the tackles. If the Lions use Best correctly he will be a solid RBBC back. I don`t see Best getting the goal line work next year. The Lions did not have much talent at RB and were forced to use Best more than they would have liked early on. Pretty sure the Lions will be looking at bringing in another RB.

He isn't a short yardage guy but I hope the Lions give him the bulk of any RBBC. Pair him with a guy like Jacobs and roll with it.

 

[Summer Wheat]

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB and it not nearly as physical as McFadden. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

Everytime someone says stuff like this I hear Brian Westbrook and I want to buy Best even more.As a Detroit fan do you think Best is a bust? Saying "a third down RB" seems pretty much like homer pessimism. Even as a committee back I think he is an elite playmaker who will get 15+ touches a game and score 8+ TDs a year.

No, I don`t think Best is a bust at all. Best has great speed and quickness but gets blown up between the tackles. If the Lions use Best correctly he will be a solid RBBC back. I don`t see Best getting the goal line work next year. The Lions did not have much talent at RB and were forced to use Best more than they would have liked early on. Pretty sure the Lions will be looking at bringing in another RB.

He isn't a short yardage guy but I hope the Lions give him the bulk of any RBBC. Pair him with a guy like Jacobs and roll with it.

Exactly. Too bad they missed the boat on La Blount.

 

[Shutout]

I'm going to be all over Jahvid Best, especially if they improve the line (you have to think they have to).

I believe in his talent, and he'll be "the guy" when healthy.

Situation eerily identical to McFadden prior to this year (except that Smith/Morris are worse than Mike Bush)

I watched best in every game this year, still not convinced that Best is anything more than a third down RB. Best does not have the skill set of an everydown RB and it not nearly as physical as McFadden. Lacks the push inside and it not durable enough. Mo Morris was much more effective between the tackles. If Morris stays he may be the goal line RB next year. Schwartz loves how Mo hits the line.

I don't think you have ever had Turf toe. I knoe of people who couldn't surf, cycle, or jog with turf toe. By definition, it prevents you from pushing or changing direction without pain. So, imagine a rb with this ailment in both feet trying to move a pile.The knock on mcFadden was always the physicality. People said he had no push, no strength, his legs were too small, etc. Seems to have proven otherwise after getting healthy and you can see with him as an example as to what a guy who can catch and has speed can do when healthy. Best could be better than McFadden in those departments. Granted, he's never going to be Adrian Peterson but you don't always need Adrian Peterson types. Its ok to be a Brian Westbrook type just as well.

 

[thriftyrocker]

If you want to talk about a buy low from the class, it has to be CJ Spiller. He was thought to be the better talent, he just happened to end up in NFL hell. Best hasn't proven any more than CJ, he just got more chances.

Not by everybody. He was downgraded a lot due to the concussion history at Cal. A lot of Shark Pool posts recommended Best over Spiller in rookie drafts circa last June. While situation was part of that, there was an indication Best could be an every down back whereas Spiller can't be. Best has proven a lot more than Spiller, just in one game vs. the Eagles. He didn't even have a great year returning the ball - his old teammate Jacoby Ford had more return yards, more return TDs, and a higher avg.