C Palmer Week 4 Projections (1 Viewer)

[Islander]

Please delete if I am not allowed to post this because it's subscriber material. But Dodds is projecting C Palmer as QB13 at home against the Browns.

Ok I get it, Palmer has a bad season start. Ok I get it, O-Line is horrible. Ok I get it, running game is not there, etc. But gimme a break, he played @BAL, home vs Titans who are highest scoring defense this year so far in many leagues, and @NYG. No easy matchups there.

But Palmer at home vs the Browns and he's only QB13? C Ocho Cinco and TJ Housh still alive?

The Browns D? In Cincy? If this turns out to be an offensive shootout, I would not be surprised at all. The Bengals could score 30 pts and it would not be shocking to anyone. If C Palmer falls flat against a bad team at home a few times, I could see a low ranking going forward. But right now, no chance I have him outside the top 10 QBs at home against an opponent with a weak defense and a potent offense.

Dodds = Overreacting.

Feel free to criticize me - who am I to call out Dodds... he's right much more often than me... maybe 90% of the time. But he fumbled on this one.

 

[Rushmore]

I agree

 

[Skilo]

Please delete if I am not allowed to post this because it's subscriber material. But Dodds is projecting C Palmer as QB13 at home against the Browns. Ok I get it, Palmer has a bad season start. Ok I get it, O-Line is horrible. Ok I get it, running game is not there, etc. But gimme a break, he played @BAL, home vs Titans who are highest scoring defense this year so far in many leagues, and @NYG. No easy matchups there. But Palmer at home vs the Browns and he's only QB13? C Ocho Cinco and TJ Housh still alive? The Browns D? In Cincy? If this turns out to be an offensive shootout, I would not be surprised at all. The Bengals could score 30 pts and it would not be shocking to anyone. If C Palmer falls flat against a bad team at home a few times, I could see a low ranking going forward. But right now, no chance I have him outside the top 10 QBs at home against an opponent with a weak defense and a potent offense. Dodds = Overreacting. Feel free to criticize me - who am I to call out Dodds... he's right much more often than me... maybe 90% of the time. But he fumbled on this one.

When his numbers go up, Im sure his ranking will go up.And just as a suggestion, you can still keep your post without the specific ranking. Just say it is way lower than you expect. Keep the subscriber material in family

 

[bollocks28]

Maybe you're right, maybe you're not. They're projections not guarantees.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Agreed.

You can't project him at #6 on the road in Baltimore and than justify the ranking against the Browns this week.

everyone knew cincy was gonna be a trainwreck this year and I was surprised at his week 1 ranking.

However if there is a week the Bengals get the offence together it would be this week.

I am predicting 250/2/0

 

[red stripe]

I think Dodd's early projections are fairly formulaic and he tweaks them significantly over the next couple days.

 

[simey]

You can't project him at #6 on the road in Baltimore and than justify the ranking against the Browns this week.

Sure you can. The first game of the season he got a high ranking due to his performance last year. He did poorly against Baltimore so he sank in the rankings. Against the Titans he did poorly again, so he sank some more. Last week he did well against the Giants, so he is moving back up slowly. Nothing wrong with the rankings.

 

[Chunky Soup]

And what happened last year when the Browns were at Cincy?

 

[moderated]

way to screw yourself and all Palmer owners.

this call out virtually guarantees Palmer tanks. have we learned nothing over the years about these projection call out threads?

 

[Warhogs]

I have Palmer penciled in for 346 yards, 3td and 1 int.

That should put him in the top5 this week. And that is free material for everyone. Of course they say you get what you pay for.

 

[puckalicious]

I don't care what Palmer is projected at. He is on my bench until CIN fields a decent Oline. He's proven he can't overcome this obstacle since he is a pure pocket passer, not a scrambler.

 

[Ozymandias]

Talk about overreacting. One more fantasy point in the projection and he's QB #10. Two more points and he's QB #8. Projections are are only estimates.

Palmer has not shown anything so far this year; maybe he will come out of the blues, and maybe he won't.

 

[SKribbles]

way to screw yourself and all Palmer owners.this call out virtually guarantees Palmer tanks. have we learned nothing over the years about these projection call out threads?

I'd bet this thread has nothing to do with Palmer's performance on Sunday. Just a hunch though... I could be wrong.

 

[Islander]

Talk about overreacting. One more fantasy point in the projection and he's QB #10. Two more points and he's QB #8. Projections are are only estimates.Palmer has not shown anything so far this year; maybe he will come out of the blues, and maybe he won't.

Ok, list your top 12 QBs for week 4. I will pick 3 in your top 12. I take Palmer against the three that I select in your top 12. I bet you that Palmer beats 2 of the three that I select. If he beats one or zero, I lose. If you refuse this bet, it's because you admit that QB13 is too low. Who cares if Palmer is projected 0.9 pt lower than someone else. Even if he's projected 0.1 lower than another QB, that means you would rather have that guy rather than Palmer, and that you would take the week 4 bet head to head. Another way to look at it... gimme Palmer +2 fantasy points against your QB8. I will take it. No Vegas casino would dare to offer Palmer +2 fantasy pts against 8 QBs this week. Forget it.Palmer should easily be a top 10 QB this week. And I am being conservative.

 

[coachjim]

I really want to start Palmer this week because the matchup looks good but I am staying with Favre at home against the Cards. I have not seen any of the Bengals games but it sure sounds like Palmer has no time. With Ocho Stinko not getting many balls and Housh getting a bunch it just screams that the under routes are open but he has not got the time for the deep routes to get clear by Stinko.

 

[bollocks28]

Talk about overreacting. One more fantasy point in the projection and he's QB #10. Two more points and he's QB #8. Projections are are only estimates.Palmer has not shown anything so far this year; maybe he will come out of the blues, and maybe he won't.

Ok, list your top 12 QBs for week 4. I will pick 3 in your top 12. I take Palmer against the three that I select in your top 12. I bet you that Palmer beats 2 of the three that I select. If he beats one or zero, I lose. If you refuse this bet, it's because you admit that QB13 is too low. Who cares if Palmer is projected 0.9 pt lower than someone else. Even if he's projected 0.1 lower than another QB, that means you would rather have that guy rather than Palmer, and that you would take the week 4 bet head to head. Another way to look at it... gimme Palmer +2 fantasy points against your QB8. I will take it. No Vegas casino would dare to offer Palmer +2 fantasy pts against 8 QBs this week. Forget it.Palmer should easily be a top 10 QB this week. And I am being conservative.

Your premise is flawed. The other party to the bet could make some crappy/unlucky picks that finish out of the top 12. If they finish 14, 15, 16 and Palmer finishes 13 you win the bet but the projection was bang on.Personally I think complaining about projections is one of the silliest past times on this board but if that's your thing then knock yourself out. If you don't like the projections then don't rely on them. I certainly don't. They don't have to make sense... intangibles come into play with a lot of projections. If they didn't everyones projections would be the same and where's the fun in that?

 

[SuperJohn96]

When his numbers go up, Im sure his ranking will go up.

Subscribers don't need accurate rankings AFTER the fact. They pay to have them BEFORE the game is played.Any idiot can rank the players AFTER they play the games.

 

[Wu-banger]

true .. how many owners / subcribers were screwed by the insane and unfounded ranking of Sammy Morris last week ..???

Palmer is a nice start this week , he looked good against the Giants and should have a nice game against the Browns.

I cant see him having a bad game , only having bad fantasy numbers if the Browns turn Jamal Lewis loose and control the ball against the poor Cinncy D.

 

[bollocks28]

true .. how many owners / subcribers were screwed by the insane and unfounded ranking of Sammy Morris last week ..???Palmer is a nice start this week , he looked good against the Giants and should have a nice game against the Browns.I cant see him having a bad game , only having bad fantasy numbers if the Browns turn Jamal Lewis loose and control the ball against the poor Cinncy D.

True, true. And why did no one predict that Westbrook would get hurt? I've had it.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

When his numbers go up, Im sure his ranking will go up.

Subscribers don't need accurate rankings AFTER the fact. They pay to have them BEFORE the game is played.Any idiot can rank the players AFTER they play the games.

Any idiot can pay someone else a subscription fee on the premise that vendor is providing assured accuracy of projections.No offense.

 

[Biabreakable]

I really want to start Palmer this week because the matchup looks good but I am staying with Favre at home against the Cards. I have not seen any of the Bengals games but it sure sounds like Palmer has no time. With Ocho Stinko not getting many balls and Housh getting a bunch it just screams that the under routes are open but he has not got the time for the deep routes to get clear by Stinko.

You do realize that Favre is dinged right now so not 100%. Also last week Favre showed that he is still learning the Jets offense and WR route adjustments to coverage.The Cardinals defense is much better than the Browns D. The Cardinals offense is also better than that Browns O.I have the pair of QBs also. No way am I starting Favre over Palmer this week. The Bengals offense made progress against the Gints and almost won. The line is getting better. The Bengals offense explodes this week at home against the Browns.All indicators are in Palmers favor here.Solid call Islander as ushual.

 

[Banger]

Please delete if I am not allowed to post this because it's subscriber material. But Dodds is projecting C Palmer as QB13 at home against the Browns. Ok I get it, Palmer has a bad season start. Ok I get it, O-Line is horrible. Ok I get it, running game is not there, etc. But gimme a break, he played @BAL, home vs Titans who are highest scoring defense this year so far in many leagues, and @NYG. No easy matchups there. But Palmer at home vs the Browns and he's only QB13? C Ocho Cinco and TJ Housh still alive? The Browns D? In Cincy? If this turns out to be an offensive shootout, I would not be surprised at all. The Bengals could score 30 pts and it would not be shocking to anyone. If C Palmer falls flat against a bad team at home a few times, I could see a low ranking going forward. But right now, no chance I have him outside the top 10 QBs at home against an opponent with a weak defense and a potent offense. Dodds = Overreacting. Feel free to criticize me - who am I to call out Dodds... he's right much more often than me... maybe 90% of the time. But he fumbled on this one.

what's your ranking?

 

[the rover]

true .. how many owners / subcribers were screwed by the insane and unfounded ranking of Sammy Morris last week ..???Palmer is a nice start this week , he looked good against the Giants and should have a nice game against the Browns.I cant see him having a bad game , only having bad fantasy numbers if the Browns turn Jamal Lewis loose and control the ball against the poor Cinncy D.

True, true. And why did no one predict that Westbrook would get hurt? I've had it.

I did, but I predict that every week, so it was bound to be right one of these times.

 

[Wu-banger]

true .. how many owners / subcribers were screwed by the insane and unfounded ranking of Sammy Morris last week ..???Palmer is a nice start this week , he looked good against the Giants and should have a nice game against the Browns.I cant see him having a bad game , only having bad fantasy numbers if the Browns turn Jamal Lewis loose and control the ball against the poor Cinncy D.

True, true. And why did no one predict that Westbrook would get hurt? I've had it.

Not the same thing at all ... and by no means do I use the rankings as a be all ....or in no way did I play Morris in any league.... dont want it to seem that way. I use them as one of many tools....Was not whining...BUT if the few previous posters suggested that the earlier season rankings are more statistically based then Morris was a real stretch against that thinking at 4 last week...seems it was based on matchup and oppurtunity.... which Palmer has a good as any this week..Would it really be a stretch to rational thinking if Palmer put up #1 numbers this week..?? NO.I think it is much more likely than what Ronnie Brown did to the Pats last week..

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Perhaps the OP was shocked at the ranking of Palmer and searching for more of a reason than bad play up to this point? I know some people get furious when posters question the expert rankings. Isn't that a right as a subscriber? If I wanted to simply come in and read the fiorums, I don't have to pay. Let me exaggerate to make my point. If Dodds had ranked Joe Flacco and Demetrius Williams as the QB1/WR1 for this week (on the road vs PIT), would any FF'er actually bench Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall without first asking why the ranking is what it is?

I also think a ranking of QB13 is WAY to low this week. As long as he plays the whole game, Palmer has NO chance of finishing lower than QB12. None, nada, zip, zilch. Anyone thinking otherwise is wrong.

I do not make it a point to call out the rankings of anyone, but when they are grossly wrong, it is warranted.

 

[apalmer]

Talk about overreacting. One more fantasy point in the projection and he's QB #10. Two more points and he's QB #8. Projections are are only estimates.

Palmer has not shown anything so far this year; maybe he will come out of the blues, and maybe he won't.

Ok, list your top 12 QBs for week 4. I will pick 3 in your top 12. I take Palmer against the three that I select in your top 12. I bet you that Palmer beats 2 of the three that I select. If he beats one or zero, I lose. If you refuse this bet, it's because you admit that QB13 is too low.

Who cares if Palmer is projected 0.9 pt lower than someone else. Even if he's projected 0.1 lower than another QB, that means you would rather have that guy rather than Palmer, and that you would take the week 4 bet head to head.

Another way to look at it... gimme Palmer +2 fantasy points against your QB8. I will take it. No Vegas casino would dare to offer Palmer +2 fantasy pts against 8 QBs this week. Forget it.

Palmer should easily be a top 10 QB this week. And I am being conservative.

1. Your reasoning is flawed. A .3 point difference in projections doesn't mean he'd rather have "that guy" than Palmer. The difference is statistically insignificant and means only that the QB's ranked 8-13 are roughly equal.2. You also seem to think the Browns' D is pathetic against the pass. They gave up 129 yards passing last week and had 2 Int.'s (admittedly, not against the best QB in the league) and gave up only 179 to Big Ben (admittedly in terrible weather). They gave up only 1 TD passing total in the two games. What is there about those figures that makes you think they are easy to apss on? It looks like they're easier to run against than pass against, and if Cincy has any brains, they're going to pound the ball on the ground as much as they can, limiting Palmer's passing opportunities. Lumping him in with the guys at the bottom of the top 10 is not outrageous.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Talk about overreacting. One more fantasy point in the projection and he's QB #10. Two more points and he's QB #8. Projections are are only estimates.

Palmer has not shown anything so far this year; maybe he will come out of the blues, and maybe he won't.

Ok, list your top 12 QBs for week 4. I will pick 3 in your top 12. I take Palmer against the three that I select in your top 12. I bet you that Palmer beats 2 of the three that I select. If he beats one or zero, I lose. If you refuse this bet, it's because you admit that QB13 is too low.

Who cares if Palmer is projected 0.9 pt lower than someone else. Even if he's projected 0.1 lower than another QB, that means you would rather have that guy rather than Palmer, and that you would take the week 4 bet head to head.

Another way to look at it... gimme Palmer +2 fantasy points against your QB8. I will take it. No Vegas casino would dare to offer Palmer +2 fantasy pts against 8 QBs this week. Forget it.

Palmer should easily be a top 10 QB this week. And I am being conservative.

1. Your reasoning is flawed. A .3 point difference in projections doesn't mean he'd rather have "that guy" than Palmer. The difference is statistically insignificant and means only that the QB's ranked 8-13 are roughly equal.2. You also seem to think the Browns' D is pathetic against the pass. They gave up 129 yards passing last week and had 2 Int.'s (admittedly, not against the best QB in the league) and gave up only 179 to Big Ben (admittedly in terrible weather). They gave up only 1 TD passing total in the two games. What is there about those figures that makes you think they are easy to apss on? It looks like they're easier to run against than pass against, and if Cincy has any brains, they're going to pound the ball on the ground as much as they can, limiting Palmer's passing opportunities. Lumping him in with the guys at the bottom of the top 10 is not outrageous.

Yes, it is outrageous. The only way Palmer gets a ranking of QB13 vs CLE is if Housh or CJ are out.

 

[Islander]

Your premise is flawed. The other party to the bet could make some crappy/unlucky picks that finish out of the top 12. If they finish 14, 15, 16 and Palmer finishes 13 you win the bet but the projection was bang on.

Sorry but I disagree. The projection means that there are 12 other QBs Dodds would rather start this week. If the other party makes "unlucky" picks that finish out of the top 12, it's because the other party made bad picks and maybe should have ranked Palmer higher than these duds. Another way to look at it:Let's say you rank a certain player QB1 for this week. If he finishes the week QB2, it does not mean the projection was wrong. It means there were no other QB you would have preferred to start this week. Take Brady last year. He did not finish QB1 every week. But ranking him QB1 every week was the correct call. If every week I had let you pick the QB of your choice to go up against Brady for me, I would have beat you a lot more than 50% of the time because ranking Brady QB1 was the correct ranking, even if he did not finish QB1 every week.

1. Your reasoning is flawed. A .3 point difference in projections doesn't mean he'd rather have "that guy" than Palmer. The difference is statistically insignificant and means only that the QB's ranked 8-13 are roughly equal.

Yes I think a 0.3 difference means Dodds would rather have that guy than Palmer. If you think QBs ranked 8-13 are roughly equal, let me pick one of those for myself (the QB out of these six I think will do best) and I will pick one for you (the QB out of these six I think will do the worst). I guarantee you that you won't be saying it's statistically insignificant if we make this bet 100 times because I will be taking you to the cleaners.To answer Banger, my ranking for Palmer this week is QB6. This means there are only 5 QBs for which I would bet on in a head-to-head matchup vs Palmer this week: Cutler, Rodgers, Romo, Rivers, Warner. If someone wanted to pick any other QB heads up vs Palmer I would take the bet.

 

[Das Boot]

way to screw yourself and all Palmer owners.this call out virtually guarantees Palmer tanks. have we learned nothing over the years about these projection call out threads?

I don't think you understand what a Keerocking is.

 

[Gadfly]

I have a tough decision this week with Palmer or JTO vs NO. I think Palmer has more upside but also more downside. JTO will have to pass more than the past couple weeks to keep up with NO's offense, but I don't think he will have a huge game. Palmer had the huge game against Cleveland last year, but it seems like Cleveland's pass D has improved. I'm not sure the Cincy-Cle game will be the usual shootout.

 

[Dragon1952]

I just picked the bum up off of the WW

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Please delete if I am not allowed to post this because it's subscriber material. But Dodds is projecting C Palmer as QB13 at home against the Browns. Ok I get it, Palmer has a bad season start. Ok I get it, O-Line is horrible. Ok I get it, running game is not there, etc. But gimme a break, he played @BAL, home vs Titans who are highest scoring defense this year so far in many leagues, and @NYG. No easy matchups there. But Palmer at home vs the Browns and he's only QB13? C Ocho Cinco and TJ Housh still alive? The Browns D? In Cincy? If this turns out to be an offensive shootout, I would not be surprised at all. The Bengals could score 30 pts and it would not be shocking to anyone. If C Palmer falls flat against a bad team at home a few times, I could see a low ranking going forward. But right now, no chance I have him outside the top 10 QBs at home against an opponent with a weak defense and a potent offense. Dodds = Overreacting. Feel free to criticize me - who am I to call out Dodds... he's right much more often than me... maybe 90% of the time. But he fumbled on this one.

Have you actually watched any of the games? It's not pretty...

 

[Katism]

I'd bench him for Jamarcus or Matt Schaub if I were you.

 

[W1cked]

C Ocho Cinco and TJ Housh still alive?

Not sure about 85 I think I saw him on a milk carton.... but TJ is.

 

[two_dollars]

I got Palmer as QB6 this week.

 

[Project Mayhem]

Carson Palmer was added to the Bengals' injury report as "questionable" for Week 4 with elbow soreness, but says he will play against the Browns.

 

[apalmer]

"Keerocked" may get replaced by "Islandered".

 

[David Dodds]

I was closer than all of you that had him super high.

 

[moderated]

way to screw yourself and all Palmer owners.this call out virtually guarantees Palmer tanks. have we learned nothing over the years about these projection call out threads?

It's just getting worse, now call out threads end up with the player not even playing the game.Can't wait until next weeks addition of "The Call Out" thread.

 

[billjohnson]

I was closer than all of you that had him super high.

I agree. Was it the injury that figured into the lower projections? Either way, had he played, I bet he would have been around QB 15! Nice call.

 

[[scooter]]

I was closer than all of you that had him super high.

Technically it's still possible for him to post top-10 numbers this week.

 

[TeamDingo]

I was closer than all of you that had him super high.

 

[David Dodds]

I was closer than all of you that had him super high.

I agree. Was it the injury that figured into the lower projections? Either way, had he played, I bet he would have been around QB 15! Nice call.

I factored in the injury, the bad play of the OL for pass protection and Game Predictor told me this team should be able to run against the Browns. There is a madness to some of my projections (sometimes).

 

[Keys Myaths]

I was closer than all of you that had him super high.

Please take this a little more seriously.

 

[Jason Wood]

Threads like these are funny...

 

[top dog]

I was closer than all of you that had him super high.

 

[apalmer]

I was closer than all of you that had him super high.

I'm proud to have supported you.

 

[Islander]

I was closer than all of you that had him super high.

I agree. Was it the injury that figured into the lower projections? Either way, had he played, I bet he would have been around QB 15! Nice call.

I factored in the injury, the bad play of the OL for pass protection and Game Predictor told me this team should be able to run against the Browns. There is a madness to some of my projections (sometimes).

Interesting that you did not come in here to mention that you had moved him up to QB8 or so later in the week when you realized your initial projection was too low. I pretty much agreed with you at that point. Then we both moved him down to zero with the injury news today.Your projections are very solid 99% of the time and it's the most valuable tool on this site for me on a weekly basis, but I can't give you credit for ranking Palmer low early in the week (which might have been a good call based on what I saw today) because you changed your own call after reconsideration.