Cadillac's Schedule (1 Viewer)

[John Mamula]

Link to projected strength of schedule having a statistically significant effect on production?

Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.

That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.

Stats not needed, common sense will due

OK. Please list your rankings of 2006 defenses. We will revisit this in January 2007 to analyze your "common sense".

 

[LHUCKS]

If I had a point, it would be that I would be concerned in taking Williams at his currently consensus #9 slot overall.

A lot of landmines in that 9-20 range IMHO. Cadillac is the safest choice.

the best value play in that range this year will be Rudi Johnson.

He's one of the more solid choices...but a lot of folks are scared off by Chris Perry...to be honest that situation is a little tough to predict.

 

[joffer]

Link to projected strength of schedule having a statistically significant effect on production?

Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.

That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.

Stats not needed, common sense will due

OK. Please list your rankings of 2006 defenses. We will revisit this in January 2007 to analyze your "common sense".

Pittsburgh - near the topHouston - near the bottom

 

[gocats]

If I had a point, it would be that I would be concerned in taking Williams at his currently consensus #9 slot overall.

A lot of landmines in that 9-20 range IMHO. Cadillac is the safest choice.

the best value play in that range this year will be Rudi Johnson.Cadillac is a great talent, but I am not sure he can handle a 280+ carry season without getting dinged up.

I would not be really comfortable with him as my RB1, but like you mentioned, there are a lot of land mines out there this year.

More than ever, I think this is the year to trade to get into the top three picks. The TD production alone makes it worth it.

I was a Cadillac owner last year and it was very frustrating I think Im going to stay away from him this year if possible

 

[John Mamula]

Link to projected strength of schedule having a statistically significant effect on production?

Well, I'd rather have Cadillac facing SF than Chicago in my fantasy playoffs, but that's just me.

That's your perception but where are the facts to back that up?The only strength of schedule I look at is for defensive combinations as that is a team category. Individual categories are infinitely more difficult to predict.

Stats not needed, common sense will due

OK. Please list your rankings of 2006 defenses. We will revisit this in January 2007 to analyze your "common sense".

Pittsburgh - near the topHouston - near the bottom

loli don't disagree necessarily, but looking at a game by schedule for an individual is really a waste of time imo. individuals may have good games against bad defenses and vice versa. you combine that with the uncertainty of defenses from year to year and you should just draft the BPA.

 

[LHUCKS]

you combine that with the uncertainty of defenses from year to year and you should just draft the BPA.

In most cases I do draft BPA, but I ding the upside projection in extreme situations...which is what I think we have with Cadillac and Tiki this year. Two really tough rushing schedules.

 

[LHUCKS]

to further the TIVO line of thinking...what about recording the channel that plays music on your TIVO? is that illegal?

 

[John Mamula]

to further the TIVO line of thinking...what about recording the channel that plays music on your TIVO?  is that illegal?

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN.

 

[Capella]

to further the TIVO line of thinking...what about recording the channel that plays music on your TIVO?  is that illegal?

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN.

two browsers open.

 

[John Mamula]

to further the TIVO line of thinking...what about recording the channel that plays music on your TIVO?  is that illegal?

HOW DID THAT HAPPEN.

two browsers open.

bah

 

[ChampBailey24]

Hey LHUCKS . . .

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year). Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

That doesn't prove anything. Most of the players in that list had more 290 (300,310,320, etc...). No offence David but those facts mean nothing.

 

[David Yudkin]

Hey LHUCKS . . .

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year).  Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

That doesn't prove anything. Most of the players in that list had more 290 (300,310,320, etc...). No offence David but those facts mean nothing.

You are missing the point here.If you look at the ratio of points scored to total touches, Williams is very low on the food chain on this one. Whether that means anything or not, who knows, but 290 carries is still a lot of carries.

At the same rate of production, Cadillac would not have ranked much higher on the list. Even with 40 more carries (up to 330), he would still have scored 176 points and would have climbed only 11 spots on the list (197th).

From a fantasy perspective, his biggest asset was number of carries, but his yardage and TD totals were very low compared to just about everyone else in this data set.

 

[Bailiver]

Hey LHUCKS . . .

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year).  Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

That doesn't prove anything. Most of the players in that list had more 290 (300,310,320, etc...). No offence David but those facts mean nothing.

You are missing the point here.If you look at the ratio of points scored to total touches, Williams is very low on the food chain on this one. Whether that means anything or not, who knows, but 290 carries is still a lot of carries.

At the same rate of production, Cadillac would not have ranked much higher on the list. Even with 40 more carries (up to 330), he would still have scored 176 points and would have climbed only 11 spots on the list (197th).

From a fantasy perspective, his biggest asset was number of carries, but his yardage and TD totals were very low compared to just about everyone else in this data set.

Good stuff here. I'm a TB fan and have plenty of man-love for Caddy. I think he is going to be a great NFL RB, but his FF value may be lower than I realized. I do think his TDs will increase some just because his O-line will be better and I think Caddy will be scoring from a distance when his improved O-line gives him some space to do his magic.

But I need to temper that optimism because Tampa Bay just does not seem to score that many TDs on the ground.

 

[AnonymousBob]

If he played in the middle of the year even though he was hurt, that would be a factor that would be negatively affecting Yukin's stats. So he was tough enough to play but wasn't effective enough to do anything.

 

[LHUCKS]

Good stuff here. I'm a TB fan and have plenty of man-love for Caddy. I think he is going to be a great NFL RB, but his FF value may be lower than I realized.

I do think his TDs will increase some just because his O-line will be better and I think Caddy will be scoring from a distance when his improved O-line gives him some space to do his magic.

But I need to temper that optimism because Tampa Bay just does not seem to score that many TDs on the ground.

Let's not also forget that Caddy is just going to get plain better...look at Emmit's difference in effectiveness from year one to year two.

+--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1990 dal |  16 |   241    937    3.9   11 |    24    228   9.5    0 || 1991 dal |  16 |   365   1563    4.3   12 |    49    258   5.3    1 |

 

[ChampBailey24]

Hey LHUCKS . . .

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year). Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

That doesn't prove anything. Most of the players in that list had more 290 (300,310,320, etc...). No offence David but those facts mean nothing.

You are missing the point here.If you look at the ratio of points scored to total touches, Williams is very low on the food chain on this one. Whether that means anything or not, who knows, but 290 carries is still a lot of carries.

At the same rate of production, Cadillac would not have ranked much higher on the list. Even with 40 more carries (up to 330), he would still have scored 176 points and would have climbed only 11 spots on the list (197th).

From a fantasy perspective, his biggest asset was number of carries, but his yardage and TD totals were very low compared to just about everyone else in this data set.

Alright. I dont particularly love Cadillac. I was just wondering if his value was as low as you said but you convinced me.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

The dude is just all or nothing the way I see it and what really sucks is if he's having a bad game he usually won't get you that one yard td to help you out.

He basically had 6 really good games last year and 6 really bad games.

That's not what I want with my first round pick.

Reminds me of arguments against Shaun Alexander early in his career.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Hey LHUCKS . . .

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year). Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

That doesn't prove anything. Most of the players in that list had more 290 (300,310,320, etc...). No offence David but those facts mean nothing.

You are missing the point here.If you look at the ratio of points scored to total touches, Williams is very low on the food chain on this one. Whether that means anything or not, who knows, but 290 carries is still a lot of carries.

At the same rate of production, Cadillac would not have ranked much higher on the list. Even with 40 more carries (up to 330), he would still have scored 176 points and would have climbed only 11 spots on the list (197th).

From a fantasy perspective, his biggest asset was number of carries, but his yardage and TD totals were very low compared to just about everyone else in this data set.

I would be interested in these rankings if you could redo them based on FP from yards alone. Is he still low on the totem pole then?

 

[mightyeskimo]

I'll let you all know when I've gotten past seeing Karim Abdul-Jabbar mentioned in a fantasy football discussion. Then I'll get around to adding to this conversation. "Waitress, another beer please"

 

[Blackjacks]

The dude is just all or nothing the way I see it and what really sucks is if he's having a bad game he usually won't get you that one yard td to help you out.

He basically had 6 really good games last year and 6 really bad games.

That's not what I want with my first round pick.

Reminds me of arguments against Shaun Alexander early in his career.

Wherever there is a good fantasy comparasion there are 50 bad one's.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

Suit yourself . . .

Williams ranked 20th out of 21 backs with 290 carries as a rookie--behind Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Bobby Humphrey, and Rashaan Salaam and ahead of only John Stephens.

Running the numbers for rookies without consideration for workload, Williams  campaign ranked as the 62nd best season for a rookie RB since 1960.

I'm not saying he will be a total dud, just thinking out load that he may not be "all that" as some are suggesting.

So only 21 runningbacks in the history of the NFL have been able to carry that kind of load. Let's see that entire list and take a look at how many busted in year 2...I would guess it's a very high percentage by NFL RB standards.

Nobody is saying he is the next Barry Sanders, but if you want solid FF production Cadillac looks like he may be able to give you what few NFL RBs can...workhorse numbers.

1 Eric Dickerson 341.20 2 Edgerrin James 315.90

3 Billy Sims 288.40

4 Curtis Martin 264.80

5 Curt Warner 261.40

6 George Rogers 258.00

7 Mike Anderson 255.60

8 Marshall Faulk 252.40

9 Ottis Anderson 251.30

10 Joe Cribbs 232.00

11 Earl Campbell 227.80

12 LaDainian Tomlinson 220.30

13 Robert Edwards 216.60

14 Jerome Bettis 209.30

15 Eddie George 203.00

16 Jamal Lewis 202.00

17 Karim Abdul-Jabbar 191.50

18 Bobby Humphrey 183.55

19 Rashaan Salaam 173.00

20 Cadillac Williams 161.90

21 John Stephens 150.60

I would also bet that Cadillac is one of the smaller backs on that list.

caddy is plenty big... if he isn't a monster, it probably won't be due to his size, imo...i think he is a listed 217 (played in college about 205 reportedly but bulked up with some "good" weight that didn't seem to slow him down discernibly)...

for context, that might be bigger than LT when he came out, similar to edge & 5-10 lbs heavier than faulk when he came up... same with curtis martin...

 

[Finatic]

I'll let you all know when I've gotten past seeing Karim Abdul-Jabbar mentioned in a fantasy football discussion. Then I'll get around to adding to this conversation. "Waitress, another beer please"

 

[David Yudkin]

I'll let you all know when I've gotten past seeing Karim Abdul-Jabbar mentioned in a fantasy football discussion. Then I'll get around to adding to this conversation. "Waitress, another beer please"

Roger Murdock: I'm sorry son, but you must have me confused with someone else. My name is Roger Murdock. I'm the co-pilot. Joey: You are Kareem. I've seen you play. My dad's got season tickets.

Roger Murdock: I think you should go back to your seat now Joey. Right Clarence?

Captain Oveur: Nahhhhhh, he's not bothering anyone, let him stay here.

Roger Murdock: But just remember, my name is ROGER MURDOCK. I'm an airline pilot.

Joey: I think you're the greatest, but my dad says you don't work hard enough on defense. And he says that lots of times, you don't even run down court. And that you don't really try... except during the playoffs.

Roger Murdock: The hell I don't. LISTEN KID. I've been hearing that crap ever since I was at UCLA. I'm out there busting my buns every night. Tell your old man to drag Walton and Lanier up and down the court for 48 minutes.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Hey LHUCKS . . .

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year). Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

This is a somewhat misleading statistic, since Cadillac also tied for least number of carries amongst the 213 RB's who carried for at least 290 in a season.290-1178-6 with 4.1 YPC is pretty good for a rookie. It is similar to 339-1236-10 (LT) or 314-1282-12 (Faulk).

 

[goonsquad]

Hey LHUCKS . . .

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year).  Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

Run those numbers just for rookies and see what you get...Cadillac is the goods.

Suit yourself . . .Williams ranked 20th out of 21 backs with 290 carries as a rookie--behind Karim Abdul-Jabbar, Bobby Humphrey, and Rashaan Salaam and ahead of only John Stephens.

Running the numbers for rookies without consideration for workload, Williams campaign ranked as the 62nd best season for a rookie RB since 1960.

I'm not saying he will be a total dud, just thinking out load that he may not be "all that" as some are suggesting.

This is awesome information... to use to try and pry Cadillac off someone else's roster this offseason. Very misleading stats, IMO. I love it!

 

[Sabertooth]

This was/is a great thread. It certainly tempers my enthusiasm for Caddy which is good as he'll be waaay overrated this season.Yudkin nailed it here IMO:

Based on that, Williams will need to do some of the following to climb the RB rankings in my book:- Get a lot more TD than the 6 he scored last year.- Get a lot more receiving yards than the 80 he had last year- Get more than 4.1 yards per carry than last year- Get a lot more touches than the 310 he got last year

 

[softball]

This was/is a great thread. It certainly tempers my enthusiasm for Caddy which is good as he'll be waaay overrated this season.

Yudkin nailed it here IMO:

Based on that, Williams will need to do some of the following to climb the RB rankings in my book:

- Get a lot more TD than the 6 he scored last year.

- Get a lot more receiving yards than the 80 he had last year

- Get more than 4.1 yards per carry than last year

- Get a lot more touches than the 310 he got last year

I think he COULD get more receiving yards in 2006. Only because of off season training and a full season of Pro Football under his belt.That said I'm avoiding him, period.

Yudkin has hit on a number of excellent statistics.

My biggest problem with Williams is that in two of his 6 productive games, he was unproductive until busting a TD run late in the game. AT Minn. and Atlanta. Without those two TDs, he scored under 20 FPs (HP SCORING) in 12 of 14 games played.

That's not getting it done from a Fantasy Production standpoint...

 

[gang-wars]

I remember people saying that SA should be the #1 pick because of his SOS and LT lovers went off on them. You saw lots of "R U CRAZY TISLSITS LTLTLTLT".

Then people mentioned LTs tough SOS, and of course everyone shouted "you can't predict defense!".

At pick 9-15, it's a coin flip. If two guys are projected pretty close, I'll take the guy playing SF/Houston/Rams/Buffalo/Raiders/KC. You can go bash your head against the Bucs/Panthers/Bears/Steelers all you want.

 

[Donnybrook]

TB sure did get a tough draw this year...AFC Central and NFC East.

2006 Schedule

Sep 10 Baltimore 1:00pm

Sep 17 @Atlanta 1:00pm

Sep 24 Carolina 1:00pm

Week 4 BYE 

Oct 8 @New Orleans 1:00pm

Oct 15 Cincinnati 1:00pm

Oct 22 Philadelphia 1:00pm

Oct 29 @N.Y. Giants 2:00pm

Nov 5 New Orleans 2:00pm

Nov 13 @Carolina 9:30pm

Nov 19 Washington 2:00pm

Nov 23 @Dallas 5:15pm

Dec 3 @Pittsburgh 2:00pm

Dec 10 Atlanta 2:00pm

Dec 17 @Chicago 2:00pm

Dec 24 @Cleveland 2:00pm

Dec 31 Seattle 2:00pm

All times are Eastern

Why is Atlanta in red?

 

[Football Jones]

I believe Caddy is one of the more overrated young RBs in the league (ROY or not). I'm not totally down on him, but let's just say I'm leery of him at this point.

 

[supermark_28]

TB sure did get a tough draw this year...AFC Central and NFC East.

2006 Schedule

Sep 10 Baltimore 1:00pm

Sep 17 @Atlanta 1:00pm

Sep 24 Carolina 1:00pm

Week 4 BYE 

Oct 8 @New Orleans 1:00pm

Oct 15 Cincinnati 1:00pm

Oct 22 Philadelphia 1:00pm

Oct 29 @N.Y. Giants 2:00pm

Nov 5 New Orleans 2:00pm

Nov 13 @Carolina 9:30pm

Nov 19 Washington 2:00pm

Nov 23 @Dallas 5:15pm

Dec 3 @Pittsburgh 2:00pm

Dec 10 Atlanta 2:00pm

Dec 17 @Chicago 2:00pm

Dec 24 @Cleveland 2:00pm

Dec 31 Seattle 2:00pm

All times are Eastern

Why is Atlanta in red?

caddy had his best games last year against the falcs but imo they will be much improved this year. lots of injuries last year and teams will be better prepared for him this year.

 

[Footballhead]

Hey LHUCKS . . .

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year). Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

Why are we suddenly forgetting he was a rookie last year and played only 60% of his game at full strength. Sometimes, stats don't give the full picture. Bucs line is improving, and they are making Cadillac the center-piece of their offense. In redraft league, off-course I'll pick Tiki over Cadillac....for this year, but in dynasty league Cadillac>Tiki.

 

[LHUCKS]

I remember people saying that SA should be the #1 pick because of his SOS and LT lovers went off on them. You saw lots of "R U CRAZY TISLSITS LTLTLTLT".

Then people mentioned LTs tough SOS, and of course everyone shouted "you can't predict defense!".

At pick 9-15, it's a coin flip. If two guys are projected pretty close, I'll take the guy playing SF/Houston/Rams/Buffalo/Raiders/KC. You can go bash your head against the Bucs/Panthers/Bears/Steelers all you want.

Let the haters hate. You can only lead a horse to water...

 

[gang-wars]

caddy had his best games last year against the falcs but imo they will be much improved this year. lots of injuries last year and teams will be better prepared for him this year.

The ATL D will be improved. But what have they done to help the RUN defense?Milloy? You mean the big run stopper in Buffalo? :X

Abraham again the run? :X

Hartwell's impact on the D? :X

Hartwell was pretty much stealing money until he got hurt. The run D is insanely bad. Improvements in the pass defense should help. But the additions probably just make teams want to run more.

Nationally people are playing up the Falcon D, but locally we're far more tempered in our expectations.

 

[supermark_28]

caddy had his best games last year against the falcs but imo they will be much improved this year. lots of injuries last year and teams will be better prepared for him this year.

The ATL D will be improved. But what have they done to help the RUN defense?Milloy? You mean the big run stopper in Buffalo? :X

Abraham again the run? :X

Hartwell's impact on the D? :X

Hartwell was pretty much stealing money until he got hurt. The run D is insanely bad. Improvements in the pass defense should help. But the additions probably just make teams want to run more.

Nationally people are playing up the Falcon D, but locally we're far more tempered in our expectations.

anything has to be an improvement over last year right? thanks for the insight... i just cut a slice of crow pie for myself...

 

[gang-wars]

caddy had his best games last year against the falcs but imo they will be much improved this year. lots of injuries last year and teams will be better prepared for him this year.

The ATL D will be improved. But what have they done to help the RUN defense?Milloy? You mean the big run stopper in Buffalo? :X

Abraham again the run? :X

Hartwell's impact on the D? :X

Hartwell was pretty much stealing money until he got hurt. The run D is insanely bad. Improvements in the pass defense should help. But the additions probably just make teams want to run more.

Nationally people are playing up the Falcon D, but locally we're far more tempered in our expectations.

anything has to be an improvement over last year right? thanks for the insight... i just cut a slice of crow pie for myself...

You're right, they will be better. But it's still mostly the same D that gave up 4 TDs to Derrick Blaylock, and 3 TDs to Gado. And last year Caddy destroyed us late in the year (150 and a TD) when we were still 8-6 and had a shot at the playoffs. Brooking back to the weak side helps, hopefully Hartwell knows the defense now. The new secondary (milloy, crocker, jimmy williams) should help.

But at the core, Coleman/Abraham/Kearny just aren't that good against the run. They're really 3 pass rushers. Brooking/Hartwell/Boley? Ike Reese? Those DL/LBs are small, and a power rush team pretty much destroys them. You're going to see the safety coming down into the box a lot. But there were lots of points last year, when it was obvious the team was going to run, and we just couldn't stop it.

So fantasy wise, they will score pretty well. It's a big play defense. Against the pass, they should be pretty good. But against the run, you feel good about starting your RB.

 

[Sabertooth]

Hey LHUCKS . . .

There have been 213 times when a RB has had 290 carries in a season (including Williams last year).  Cadillac ranked 208th out of those 213 RB in terms of fantasy scoring with 161 fantasy points.

Wouldn't his marginal success even with a large workload be something to be concerned about (even ignoring his schedule for 2006)?

Why are we suddenly forgetting he was a rookie last year and played only 60% of his game at full strength. Sometimes, stats don't give the full picture. Bucs line is improving, and they are making Cadillac the center-piece of their offense. In redraft league, off-course I'll pick Tiki over Cadillac....for this year, but in dynasty league Cadillac>Tiki.

I'm not forgetting that. Just like I am not forgetting that he never carried the load in college either. He has had a long history of not being able to play a full slate of games. Tampa still has Alstott and Pittman right? That's short yardage and third down right there. Gruden has a storied history of RBBC going back to Oakland.

I am not completely down on Caddy. I think he's got serious talent but he has his question marks as well. I just don't see him making that huge jump this season like Emmitt Smith did.

 

[zamboni]

Gruden has a storied history of RBBC going back to Oakland.

Gruden also never drafted an RB at #5 overall, much less with the talent of Caddy (with all due respect to Chuck Garner).

 

[Norseman]

I remember people saying that SA should be the #1 pick because of his SOS and LT lovers went off on them. You saw lots of "R U CRAZY TISLSITS LTLTLTLT".

Then people mentioned LTs tough SOS, and of course everyone shouted "you can't predict defense!".

At pick 9-15, it's a coin flip. If two guys are projected pretty close, I'll take the guy playing SF/Houston/Rams/Buffalo/Raiders/KC. You can go bash your head against the Bucs/Panthers/Bears/Steelers all you want.

Let the haters hate. You can only lead a horse to water...

Why all the love for Cadillac? He didn't play in the Conference of Champions!!

 

[Capella]

Just like I am not forgetting that he never carried the load in college either. He has had a long history of not being able to play a full slate of games.

You're being disingenuous here -- there's a reason why Caddy didn't carry the load at Auburn, and he's currently playing down in Miami.

 

[ookook]

You're avoiding the question.

There is in fact a postive correlation between yards allowed in rushing from year n and year n+1 as well as yards allowed receiving. I calculated both a few years ago.

There is also (obviously) a positive correlation between those statistics in year n and the PROJECTED stats for year n+1...therefore....well you do the math.

Put me down in the camp that says "SOS doesn't matter" is one of the biggest myths in the game, and one that has been prumulgated by some associated with this site.

The only question is "how much weight should I give it when I draft"? Whjich is really, "how much shoudl it affect my projections"? My own answer is that past player performance should have about 4 to 5 times the weight...but weighting SOS 1/5th can change my rankings.

-OOK!

p.s., please do not assert the null hypothesis without presenting data

 

[stbugs]

Good stuff here.  I'm a TB fan and have plenty of man-love for Caddy.  I think he is going to be a great NFL RB, but his FF value may be lower than I realized. 

I do think his TDs will increase some just because his O-line will be better and I think Caddy will be scoring from a distance when his improved O-line gives him some space to do his magic.

But I need to temper that optimism because Tampa Bay just does not seem to score that many TDs on the ground.

Let's not also forget that Caddy is just going to get plain better...look at Emmit's difference in effectiveness from year one to year two.
+--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1990 dal |  16 |   241    937    3.9   11 |    24    228   9.5    0 || 1991 dal |  16 |   365   1563    4.3   12 |    49    258   5.3    1 |

I just noticed this and thought that you made Yudkin's point even more.In 241 carries, Emmitt had 182.5 points and in 365 carries he had 260.1 points. If you do points per carry, Emmitt actually went down from .76 in 1990 to .71 in 1991. Even though, overall he improved total points wise, he actually went down in points per carry.

Even in Arizona, yes, horrible running Arizona, 35 year old Emmitt had more fantasy points in 2004 on only 267 carries than Caddy did last year on 290 carries

Based on the fact that Caddy's points per carry was 0.56, he is going to have to improve by 40-50% in order to get into stud fantasy RB territory even with 300 carries. Right now, he pales in comparison to a great fantasy back like Smith.

I would take a guy like Dominick Davis with a solid handcuff for injuries over Caddy since DD has averaged 0.8 points per carry in his 3 years in the league and even missing 5 games in 2005, he still finished higher than Caddy. The Houston backups in 5 games, did way better than Caddy too (they had 82 FPs in 5 games to Caddy's 162 in 15 games).

 

[Sabertooth]

Gruden has a storied history of RBBC going back to Oakland. 

Gruden also never drafted an RB at #5 overall, much less with the talent of Caddy (with all due respect to Chuck Garner).

True. But he did use a bit of a committee last season no?

 

[Sabertooth]

Just like I am not forgetting that he never carried the load in college either.  He has had a long history of not being able to play a full slate of games. 

You're being disingenuous here -- there's a reason why Caddy didn't carry the load at Auburn, and he's currently playing down in Miami.

This might be true as well. But Caddy bogged down with injuries after his uber-workload last season as well. He's 0-1 in pro seasons as far as playing the full 16 games.

 

[Sabertooth]

Good stuff here.  I'm a TB fan and have plenty of man-love for Caddy.  I think he is going to be a great NFL RB, but his FF value may be lower than I realized. 

I do think his TDs will increase some just because his O-line will be better and I think Caddy will be scoring from a distance when his improved O-line gives him some space to do his magic.

But I need to temper that optimism because Tampa Bay just does not seem to score that many TDs on the ground.

Let's not also forget that Caddy is just going to get plain better...look at Emmit's difference in effectiveness from year one to year two.
+--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1990 dal |  16 |   241    937    3.9   11 |    24    228   9.5    0 || 1991 dal |  16 |   365   1563    4.3   12 |    49    258   5.3    1 |

I just noticed this and thought that you made Yudkin's point even more.In 241 carries, Emmitt had 182.5 points and in 365 carries he had 260.1 points. If you do points per carry, Emmitt actually went down from .76 in 1990 to .71 in 1991. Even though, overall he improved total points wise, he actually went down in points per carry.

Even in Arizona, yes, horrible running Arizona, 35 year old Emmitt had more fantasy points in 2004 on only 267 carries than Caddy did last year on 290 carries

Based on the fact that Caddy's points per carry was 0.56, he is going to have to improve by 40-50% in order to get into stud fantasy RB territory even with 300 carries. Right now, he pales in comparison to a great fantasy back like Smith.

I would take a guy like Dominick Davis with a solid handcuff for injuries over Caddy since DD has averaged 0.8 points per carry in his 3 years in the league and even missing 5 games in 2005, he still finished higher than Caddy. The Houston backups in 5 games, did way better than Caddy too (they had 82 FPs in 5 games to Caddy's 162 in 15 games).

I find it funny that LHucks sees the same information and claims that it proves his point instead of Yudkin's. Talk about putting the conclusion ahead of the proof.

 

[Capella]

Gruden has a storied history of RBBC going back to Oakland. 

Gruden also never drafted an RB at #5 overall, much less with the talent of Caddy (with all due respect to Chuck Garner).

True. But he did use a bit of a committee last season no?

Not really. Look at the games Caddy played, he got the bulk of the carries.It's not a committee when one guy gets 25 carries and the other two backs combine for 5 or 6.

 

[zamboni]

Gruden has a storied history of RBBC going back to Oakland. 

Gruden also never drafted an RB at #5 overall, much less with the talent of Caddy (with all due respect to Chuck Garner).

True. But he did use a bit of a committee last season no?

Not really. Look at the games Caddy played, he got the bulk of the carries.It's not a committee when one guy gets 25 carries and the other two backs combine for 5 or 6.

True. I think the alleged RBBC concern stems from Alstott snagging about 6 or 7 short yardage TDs last year. Pittman wasn't much of a factor except for when Caddy was out.If one is concerned about some function of an RBBC, I'd agree it would be Alstott continuing to be used at the goal line. Given Caddy's nose for the end zone, however, it wouldn't shock me if he gets some of those 1-yard plunges this year.

 

[Capella]

Just like I am not forgetting that he never carried the load in college either.  He has had a long history of not being able to play a full slate of games. 

You're being disingenuous here -- there's a reason why Caddy didn't carry the load at Auburn, and he's currently playing down in Miami.

This might be true as well. But Caddy bogged down with injuries after his uber-workload last season as well. He's 0-1 in pro seasons as far as playing the full 16 games.

Injury. Injury. Not injuries. He had a foot problem. Some say it was due to a lot of carries, other say he took a good amount of weight on it in a pile. Either way, a guy missing 4 games in his rookie season and becoming injury prone for life now is kind of silly.

But then again, I don't care where any of you guys draft him. I'm just hoping he can lead the team back to the playoffs.

 

[Capella]

Gruden has a storied history of RBBC going back to Oakland. 

Gruden also never drafted an RB at #5 overall, much less with the talent of Caddy (with all due respect to Chuck Garner).

True. But he did use a bit of a committee last season no?

Not really. Look at the games Caddy played, he got the bulk of the carries.It's not a committee when one guy gets 25 carries and the other two backs combine for 5 or 6.

True. I think the alleged RBBC concern stems from Alstott snagging about 6 or 7 short yardage TDs last year. Pittman wasn't much of a factor except for when Caddy was out.If one is concerned about some function of an RBBC, I'd agree it would be Alstott continuing to be used at the goal line. Given Caddy's nose for the end zone, however, it wouldn't shock me if he gets some of those 1-yard plunges this year.

He started getting those carries later in the year.But yeah, Alstott will see some short-yardage touches.

 

[stbugs]

I find it funny that LHucks sees the same information and claims that it proves his point instead of Yudkin's. Talk about putting the conclusion ahead of the proof.

True, but since I never really watched Caddy, he might improve enough. My concern is that even Emmitt Smith in his rookie season showed the potential to score fantasy points.In some cases, the system and or the RB may achieve fantasy greatness even if they aren't considered the best "talent." Again, I would take DD every year over Caddy if I knew for a fact that both guys were going to start all 16 games. I may not think DD is a better NFL RB, but I know that he will score, whereas I don't know that (yet) about Caddy.

I kind of see Caddy as Jamal Lewis right now. Lewis has finished in the top 10 in 1 of his 6 years in the league and it took the perfect season (twice as many TDs as his next best year) to do it. Lewis has the same lack of TDs/few receptions that Caddy had last year, but Lewis still seems to carry an overhyped label to him, which may have faded last year a bit.