Calculating Fantasy Value (1 Viewer)

[Lehigh98]

I have a league (5x5) with some nonstandard rosters (start 5 hitters regardless of position) so magazine cheatsheets aren't much help. I started playing around with some projections in Excel with VORP to try and determine value.

Determining the "replacement value" was easy enough, I just used some "smoothed" stats for the best undrafted player...

R-88 / HR-25 / RBI-90 / SB-14 / AVG-.282 (FYI: 51st best hitter regardless of position)

But now I'm having a hard time figuring out the best way to assign value to the difference in each category.

For example, if I project someone to hit 40 HR's, that's a VORP of 15 HR's.

How do I determine the value I multiply the HR's by to come up with a HR value for this player based on my league?

Would I base this on the # of HR's I think it would take to win the category?

The difference in HR's between the first and last place teams?

The standard deviation across the category?

I could just make up numbers that "seem" right but I want to find the actual value of the players in this format without any bias of who I think should be ranked higher than the others.

Here's a simplified example of where the evaluation comes in, drafting your first rounder, no specific strategy for HR or SB...

Player A is projected for 40 HR (15 VORP) & 15 SB (1 VORP)

Player B is projected for 26 HR (1 VORP) & 30 SB (16 VORP)

Who would you take just based on the above? How do you know if the HR or SB are more valuable?

TIA

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Why not just use dollar values?

 

[Lehigh98]

Why not just use dollar values?

Ok, but how do you calculate them?

 

[Lehigh98]

Ok, I used the standings from last year to assign a point value to each category per the 10 - 1 points you receive depending on your place in the standings.

For example, the team that led in HR's had an average of 34 per player and last place had 18 per player. So if I had someone projected for 34 home runs, I assigned them 10 points. If I had them projected for 18 HR's they got 1 point. It was a straight line formula between and beyond the two. Pujols' 40 HR's was good for 20 points, Ellsbury's 10 HR was good for -7.

I did the same across all categories and added them up to get the total for the player, here's the top 20, does it make sense? (Remember, shallow league and no position scarcity)...

Player		Pos	R	HR	RBI	AVG	SB	R	HR	RBI	AVG	SB	Total
Albert Pujols	1B	110	40	120	0.337	10	16.99	20.16	14.20	37.45	-5.43	83.36
Alex Rodriguez	3B	110	36	120	0.310	15	16.99	16.53	14.20	22.36	-2.96	67.11
Ryan Braun	OF	110	37	120	0.305	17	16.99	17.43	14.20	19.57	-1.98	66.21
Miguel Cabrera	1B	105	35	115	0.320	3	14.34	15.62	12.83	27.95	-8.89	61.84
Matt Holliday	OF	105	28	115	0.320	15	14.34	9.26	12.83	27.95	-2.96	61.42
Hanley Ramirez	SS	100	25	110	0.320	25	11.68	6.54	11.47	27.95	1.98	59.61
Matt Kemp	OF	100	30	110	0.305	32	11.68	11.08	11.47	19.57	5.43	59.22
Chase Utley	2B	110	32	105	0.300	15	16.99	12.89	10.10	16.77	-2.96	53.79
Ryan Howard	1B	105	47	140	0.275		14.34	26.51	19.66	2.80	-10.37	52.93
Mark Teixeira	1B	100	37	120	0.305		11.68	17.43	14.20	19.57	-10.37	52.50
Prince Fielder	1B	100	42	115	0.285		11.68	21.97	12.83	8.38	-10.37	44.50
David Wright	3B	100	25	110	0.300	17	11.68	6.54	11.47	16.77	-1.98	44.48
Joe Mauer	C	100	20	85	0.330	3	11.68	2.00	4.64	33.54	-8.89	42.97
Ryan Zimmerman	3B	105	30	110	0.295	5	14.34	11.08	11.47	13.98	-7.90	42.95
Jacoby Ellsbury	OF	105	10	65	0.300	60	14.34	-7.08	-0.82	16.77	19.27	42.47
Evan Longoria	3B	100	36	115	0.280	10	11.68	16.53	12.83	5.59	-5.43	41.19
Robinson Cano	2B	90	27	100	0.315	5	6.37	8.35	8.74	25.16	-7.90	40.71
Derek Jeter	SS	110	16	70	0.315	20	16.99	-1.63	0.55	25.16	-0.49	40.56
Joey Votto	1B	90	30	105	0.305	7	6.37	11.08	10.10	19.57	-6.92	40.20
Carl Crawford	OF	110	14	65	0.290	50	16.99	-3.45	-0.82	11.18	14.33	38.23

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

Why not just use dollar values?

Ok, but how do you calculate them?

There are many free dollar value calculators that will allow you to enter the stat categories, number of teams, player pool, etc. Just use one of those that you're comfortable with.Generally, dollar values are based only on the value of the stats that the player produces. That's probably a lot easier and much more accurate (granted these values will be based on projections but I'm sure you can find a calculator that will give you the 2009 values too) than what you're trying to do.