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California is facing a massive housing crisis (1 Viewer)

Difference better 2008 and 2018 is that there is an actual housing supply shortage instead of a surplus.

 
We need a 50 or even a 100 year plan to come up with better mass transit in this country. People flock to cities because they don't want to spend an hour and a half getting to their job less than 30 miles away, or an hour getting to their job less than 10 miles away. And they flock to smaller cities/large towns that have train stations so they don't have to deal with the hassle of driving, but those types of towns are few and far between in highly populated areas and those that have them also are dealing with failing mass transit options. 

We need way more towns with walkable "downtowns" or town centers that don't force people to be slaves to their cars, and with better mass transit, those types of towns can be built further out from the large cities where properties are cheaper. 

 
Across the country, there is a major shortage of decent construction sub-contractors and material costs are rising.

I'm telling every teenager I know with any kind of physical skill-sets to forgo a 4-year degree and go into a construction trade like electrician, plumber or H-VAC.  Two years of school and an apprenticeship can land you close to 6-figures in some areas.  Heck just framing and drywall or roofing (which requires no schooling) can be a great way to earn $50k a year in the Midwest in your early 20's.  If someone is professional, honest and organized they can own their own business and make a great living.  I've thought about doing it myself at 40, but my entire career has been behind a desk to this point.  I'm currently a Project Manager for a GC that does work around the country.  Finding good, affordable sub-contractors is the biggest challenge we face.

 
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Jayrod said:
Across the country, there is a major shortage of decent construction sub-contractors and material costs are rising.

I'm telling every teenager I know with any kind of physical skill-sets to forgo a 4-year degree and go into a construction trade like electrician, plumber or H-VAC.  Two years of school and an apprenticeship can land you close to 6-figures in some areas.  Heck just framing and drywall or roofing (which requires no schooling) can be a great way to earn $50k a year in the Midwest in your early 20's.  If someone is professional, honest and organized they can own their own business and make a great living.  I've thought about doing it myself at 40, but my entire career has been behind a desk to this point.  I'm currently a Project Manager for a GC that does work around the country.  Finding good, affordable sub-contractors is the biggest challenge we face.
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Painters are having no problem getting jobs at $60 an hour.  That's $120k a year.

 
Jayrod said:
Across the country, there is a major shortage of decent construction sub-contractors and material costs are rising.

I'm telling every teenager I know with any kind of physical skill-sets to forgo a 4-year degree and go into a construction trade like electrician, plumber or H-VAC.  Two years of school and an apprenticeship can land you close to 6-figures in some areas.  Heck just framing and drywall or roofing (which requires no schooling) can be a great way to earn $50k a year in the Midwest in your early 20's.  If someone is professional, honest and organized they can own their own business and make a great living.  I've thought about doing it myself at 40, but my entire career has been behind a desk to this point.  I'm currently a Project Manager for a GC that does work around the country.  Finding good, affordable sub-contractors is the biggest challenge we face.
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I'm right with you.  A traditional 4-year degree is such a waste of time right now (for the majority of people not entering a highly specialized field).  If a kid wants to party, I get it.  But thinking about it from a financial aspect, it's a really poor decision.

A kid starts at 18, learns one of the above-mentioned schools (even painting/drywall as you said) and starts banking 50k a year while living at home.  

If you want your kid to be setup financially, THAT is a great thing to do.  If schooling is truly important to you, you can encourage your kid to take night courses and have a 5-10 year plan to graduate.  And by the time he does, he should have a ton of money in the bank at a young age, which is a great thing for a kid. 

All that being said I'm right there with you on wanting to do it myself.  I'm 40, and I'm making more than I've ever made professionally, but there's a part of me that would love to learn a skill and get out there and do physical labor for a change.

 
shader said:
I'm right with you.  A traditional 4-year degree is such a waste of time right now (for the majority of people not entering a highly specialized field).  If a kid wants to party, I get it.  But thinking about it from a financial aspect, it's a really poor decision.

A kid starts at 18, learns one of the above-mentioned schools (even painting/drywall as you said) and starts banking 50k a year while living at home.  

If you want your kid to be setup financially, THAT is a great thing to do.  If schooling is truly important to you, you can encourage your kid to take night courses and have a 5-10 year plan to graduate.  And by the time he does, he should have a ton of money in the bank at a young age, which is a great thing for a kid. 

All that being said I'm right there with you on wanting to do it myself.  I'm 40, and I'm making more than I've ever made professionally, but there's a part of me that would love to learn a skill and get out there and do physical labor for a change.
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But the robots are eliminating all these jobs...

 
Here in Vacaville, CA, houses are going for 120% over asking price.  Definitely a shortage of housing in this area, between San Fran and Sacramento. I read an article not too long ago about the restrictive regulations for builders here in CA that is basically handcuffing builders, along with the demand for skilled and unskilled labor. 

http://www.auburnjournal.com/article/11/15/17/another-view-over-regulation-hurting-home-building-industry

ETA: recently read this article about shortage in Grand Rapids but I see the same thing in my area of CA

https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-housing-shortage-slams-the-door-on-buyers-1521395460

 
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Jayrod said:
Across the country, there is a major shortage of decent construction sub-contractors and material costs are rising.

I'm telling every teenager I know with any kind of physical skill-sets to forgo a 4-year degree and go into a construction trade like electrician, plumber or H-VAC.  Two years of school and an apprenticeship can land you close to 6-figures in some areas.  Heck just framing and drywall or roofing (which requires no schooling) can be a great way to earn $50k a year in the Midwest in your early 20's.  If someone is professional, honest and organized they can own their own business and make a great living.  I've thought about doing it myself at 40, but my entire career has been behind a desk to this point.  I'm currently a Project Manager for a GC that does work around the country.  Finding good, affordable sub-contractors is the biggest challenge we face.
Click to expand...
I've had about a dozen couples ages 19-22 buy homes with me in the past two years that are in construction here in Boise.

 
BassNBrew said:
But the robots are eliminating all these jobs...
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On a serious note I'm pushing my kid (who hates school) in this general direction as these jobs will never get replaced.  I have a plumber friend who has lots nicer #### than I do - looks like a good way to make a fairly recession and robotics resistant living.

 
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Sand said:
On a serious note I'm pushing my kid (who hates school) in this general direction as these jobs will never get replaced.  I have a plumber friend who has lots nicer #### than I do - looks like a good way to make a fairly recession and robotics resistant living.
Click to expand...
But 3D printing will eliminate these jobs.  Don't you remember the Jetsons???

 
Jayrod said:
Across the country, there is a major shortage of decent construction sub-contractors and material costs are rising.

I'm telling every teenager I know with any kind of physical skill-sets to forgo a 4-year degree and go into a construction trade like electrician, plumber or H-VAC.  Two years of school and an apprenticeship can land you close to 6-figures in some areas.  Heck just framing and drywall or roofing (which requires no schooling) can be a great way to earn $50k a year in the Midwest in your early 20's.  If someone is professional, honest and organized they can own their own business and make a great living.  I've thought about doing it myself at 40, but my entire career has been behind a desk to this point.  I'm currently a Project Manager for a GC that does work around the country.  Finding good, affordable sub-contractors is the biggest challenge we face.
Click to expand...
The added bonus of guys getting into these trades at 20 will produce a lot more regulars to the "Cortisone shots suck" thread when they are in their 40s.

I have a good friend who layed carpet for many years.  His body was breaking down and he had to get out of it.  Most of those jobs aren't careers you can do you whole working life unless you are super conservative with your money.

Plus those X dollars an hour don't neatly compare to a desk job, since you are paying for your own health insurance, unemployment insurance, no 401k match, etc etc if you are working for yourself.

 
shader said:
I'm right with you.  A traditional 4-year degree is such a waste of time right now (for the majority of people not entering a highly specialized field).  If a kid wants to party, I get it.  But thinking about it from a financial aspect, it's a really poor decision.
Click to expand...
Everything I've read says the exact opposite- that the jobs of the near and distant future are going to be ones that require college degrees and that we need more college grads, not fewer. link  another link (from that hypocrite Bill Gates)

The cost, of course, is a separate and significant issue.

The combination of these two things is the foundation of the progressive push to pay for college for all.

 
RUSF18 said:
We need a 50 or even a 100 year plan to come up with better mass transit in this country. People flock to cities because they don't want to spend an hour and a half getting to their job less than 30 miles away, or an hour getting to their job less than 10 miles away. And they flock to smaller cities/large towns that have train stations so they don't have to deal with the hassle of driving, but those types of towns are few and far between in highly populated areas and those that have them also are dealing with failing mass transit options. 

We need way more towns with walkable "downtowns" or town centers that don't force people to be slaves to their cars, and with better mass transit, those types of towns can be built further out from the large cities where properties are cheaper. 
Click to expand...
In the near future we'll all be driven around in autonomous vehicles, traveling 100MPH, 2 feet from each other... The technology will be so dialed in that we won't have issues like traffic. It will actually expand metro areas. And there will be way fewer overall cars because many (most?) people will opt not to own their own vehicles due to the cost advantages of ride-sharing.

 
I am just glad so many people want to live in crowded areas of our country.   Selfish yes.    I love that I can an afford a 3500SQ ft home with a pool and decent schools, drive new vehicles every 2 years making far less than I would have to make living in California or New York.   When I hear about people paying 5k a month rent and having to use a bus, subway, or taxi to get from point A to B my mind goes numb.   Why in the world these people live in these dense population zones making 150K a plus a year to just to break even is crazy to me.    But, please people move to California and New York and leave us hillbillies alone.     

 
TobiasFunke said:
Everything I've read says the exact opposite- that the jobs of the near and distant future are going to be ones that require college degrees and that we need more college grads, not fewer. link  another link (from that hypocrite Bill Gates)

The cost, of course, is a separate and significant issue.

The combination of these two things is the foundation of the progressive push to pay for college for all.
Click to expand...
As Walking Boot alluded to, many of the degrees people are going for are not in fields that can support the number of degreed "professionals" hitting the job market. 

Tradesmen are in great demand and the demand is only going to get bigger.  Quality tradesmen can pretty much write their own wage because there are not enough of them around.  Everyone needs plumbers, electricians, HVAC etc because very few people know the basics of these aspects.  When something breaks they don't know how to fix it.  Quality contractors are booked for months and are turning away work because they are too busy.  That is where the shortage of labor is currently.

 
RUSF18 said:
We need a 50 or even a 100 year plan to come up with better mass transit in this country. People flock to cities because they don't want to spend an hour and a half getting to their job less than 30 miles away, or an hour getting to their job less than 10 miles away. And they flock to smaller cities/large towns that have train stations so they don't have to deal with the hassle of driving, but those types of towns are few and far between in highly populated areas and those that have them also are dealing with failing mass transit options. 

We need way more towns with walkable "downtowns" or town centers that don't force people to be slaves to their cars, and with better mass transit, those types of towns can be built further out from the large cities where properties are cheaper. 
Click to expand...
what about water?

 
Walking Boot said:
Meh. When that future's a decade or more off, and you can get 100k+ a year doing plumbing or painting, why not work for 10 years, earn a million dollars in your 20s, then decide at 30 if you want to take a little time off and pursue a degree in another field?

Plus, the people we need to fill those jobs that require college degrees aren't the kind of people getting pushed through the diploma mills. We'll need people with real degrees in STEM fields, not $100,000 educations in medieval art history or imperial russian literature. For the bulk of average kids getting forced into college "because you have to go to college" and getting worthless degrees, they're not helping anyway. Get 'em in the trades and give them a decent shot at life instead of saddled with oppressive debt and no job prospects.
Click to expand...
I'm not discounting the wisdom of pursuing certain careers like plumbing for which there will always be a need (although of course if more people do them, the associated income and job security both decline). And I'm definitely not saying that everyone should go to some $40K a year liberal arts haven and major in Russian Lit. I'm simply taking issue with the notion that we have too many college grads. Every analysis I've seen about our near and distant economic future has concluded the opposite.

And yeah, the cost is a huge issue. That's the problem we focused on IMO, not pushing kids towards trades to the point that we push down wages and opportunity in those areas too. It's fine on a personal level obviously, but we don't need a million new plumbers.  We need a million new software engineers and doctors and accountants and educators. The first link in my post provides the numbers to back this up.

 
Gally said:
As Walking Boot alluded to, many of the degrees people are going for are not in fields that can support the number of degreed "professionals" hitting the job market. 

Tradesmen are in great demand and the demand is only going to get bigger.  Quality tradesmen can pretty much write their own wage because there are not enough of them around.  Everyone needs plumbers, electricians, HVAC etc because very few people know the basics of these aspects.  When something breaks they don't know how to fix it.  Quality contractors are booked for months and are turning away work because they are too busy.  That is where the shortage of labor is currently.
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And that applies to non-quality unreliable contractors.  

Right now I might as well be saying thank you very much for booking me 2 weeks out to rip me off, miss 2 appointments, and screw the job up three times while not following local codes and dumping freon into the atmosphere to boot.

 
TobiasFunke said:
I'm not discounting the wisdom of pursuing certain careers like plumbing for which there will always be a need (although of course if more people do them, the associated income and job security both decline). And I'm definitely not saying that everyone should go to some $40K a year liberal arts haven and major in Russian Lit. I'm simply taking issue with the notion that we have too many college grads. Every analysis I've seen about our near and distant economic future has concluded the opposite.

And yeah, the cost is a huge issue. That's the problem we focused on IMO, not pushing kids towards trades to the point that we push down wages and opportunity in those areas too. It's fine on a personal level obviously, but we don't need a million new plumbers.  We need a million new software engineers and doctors and accountants and educators. The first link in my post provides the numbers to back this up.
Click to expand...
TF, I'm seeing firsthand new engineers and other business/econ folks not finding jobs after graduation.  They are your middle of the road gpa types, the top folks are getting snatched up.  Now some of this may be do to them not wanting a job in rural Kansas, but is the push for more degree people really just a push for more candidates in the top 1/3 of their graduating class?

Would a change from graded work in college to pass/fail solve some of these issues?

 
For all those touting the appeal of construction and similar trade skills, I hear you.  These are not jobs that will be replaced anytime soon.  They would be decent ways to earn money.  However, these careers do take their toll physically.  Everything is working well when you are 25, but after 20 years of that physical labor as you are pushing towards 50, your body breaks down.  You better be skilled enough and savvy enough to own the company and employ others.  A friend of mine in his early 50's has been painting for quite a while.  He has back issues....knee issues...He wishes he wasn't doing what he is doing anymore.

 
Galileo said:
For all those touting the appeal of construction and similar trade skills, I hear you.  These are not jobs that will be replaced anytime soon.  They would be decent ways to earn money.  However, these careers do take their toll physically.  Everything is working well when you are 25, but after 20 years of that physical labor as you are pushing towards 50, your body breaks down.  You better be skilled enough and savvy enough to own the company and employ others.  A friend of mine in his early 50's has been painting for quite a while.  He has back issues....knee issues...He wishes he wasn't doing what he is doing anymore.
Click to expand...
I think this is a valid point.  But I also think a lot of the long-term appeal to trades is the ability to become a supervisor, manager or even own your own company and still make great money.  The physical grind can be placed on younger employees and you simply either become the face/sales guy or supervise make sure the work is done right.

ETA:  My father is in his mid-60's and is a supervisor for a contracting company that specializes in installing fiber optics lines.  There is a lot of travel involved, but he barely has to get out of a truck.  Making the best money of his career right now and doesn't plan to retire for at least another 5 years.

 
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Jayrod said:
Across the country, there is a major shortage of decent construction sub-contractors and material costs are rising.

I'm telling every teenager I know with any kind of physical skill-sets to forgo a 4-year degree and go into a construction trade like electrician, plumber or H-VAC.  Two years of school and an apprenticeship can land you close to 6-figures in some areas.  Heck just framing and drywall or roofing (which requires no schooling) can be a great way to earn $50k a year in the Midwest in your early 20's.  If someone is professional, honest and organized they can own their own business and make a great living.  I've thought about doing it myself at 40, but my entire career has been behind a desk to this point.  I'm currently a Project Manager for a GC that does work around the country.  Finding good, affordable sub-contractors is the biggest challenge we face.
Click to expand...
Well at least until 3d printing of houses really takes off

 
Sand said:
On a serious note I'm pushing my kid (who hates school) in this general direction as these jobs will never get replaced.  I have a plumber friend who has lots nicer #### than I do - looks like a good way to make a fairly recession and robotics resistant living.
Click to expand...
I'm pushing my kid to work on the robots that will replace all the other jobs

 
Walking Boot said:
Meh. When that future's a decade or more off, and you can get 100k+ a year doing plumbing or painting, why not work for 10 years, earn a million dollars in your 20s, then decide at 30 if you want to take a little time off and pursue a degree in another field?

Plus, the people we need to fill those jobs that require college degrees aren't the kind of people getting pushed through the diploma mills. We'll need people with real degrees in STEM fields, not $100,000 educations in medieval art history or imperial russian literature. For the bulk of average kids getting forced into college "because you have to go to college" and getting worthless degrees, they're not helping anyway. Get 'em in the trades and give them a decent shot at life instead of saddled with oppressive debt and no job prospects.
Click to expand...
No let them all get college degrees....We don't need anybody pursuing careers in housing construction..They can always live in a cardboard box or culvert pipe...

 
I have two kids coming through to middle school.

They will go to college.  Having said that - if I wanted to prepare them with a trade, where would I start looking for this type of training for them in their teens?

eta - All the options I see when I google vocational schools seem to target disadvantaged kids.  Do all high schools have this these days?

 
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shader said:
I'm right with you.  A traditional 4-year degree is such a waste of time right now (for the majority of people not entering a highly specialized field).  If a kid wants to party, I get it.  But thinking about it from a financial aspect, it's a really poor decision.

A kid starts at 18, learns one of the above-mentioned schools (even painting/drywall as you said) and starts banking 50k a year while living at home.  

If you want your kid to be setup financially, THAT is a great thing to do.  If schooling is truly important to you, you can encourage your kid to take night courses and have a 5-10 year plan to graduate.  And by the time he does, he should have a ton of money in the bank at a young age, which is a great thing for a kid. 

All that being said I'm right there with you on wanting to do it myself.  I'm 40, and I'm making more than I've ever made professionally, but there's a part of me that would love to learn a skill and get out there and do physical labor for a change.
Click to expand...
Another thing I will also add to this:

The majority of 18 year olds also have no ******* clue what they want to do anyway with college. What they want to major in, what they want their "career" to be, etc.

Go out and get some real world experience. Make 50k a year while living at home like you said. Save money. Set yourself up financially. And when you're 22 or 23 or 24 or whatever, you probably have a better idea of what you want to major in. At least better than you did at 18. 

 
Don't Toews Me said:
Another thing I will also add to this:

The majority of 18 year olds also have no ******* clue what they want to do anyway with college. What they want to major in, what they want their "career" to be, etc.

Go out and get some real world experience. Make 50k a year while living at home like you said. Save money. Set yourself up financially. And when you're 22 or 23 or 24 or whatever, you probably have a better idea of what you want to major in. At least better than you did at 18. 
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What trade job is a 20 year old making 50k per year?

 
SHIZNITTTT said:
Why in the world these people live in these dense population zones making 150K a plus a year to just to break even is crazy to me.    But, please people move to California and New York and leave us hillbillies alone.     
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I have lived in both SoCal and NorCal so I can provide some explanation.

In many industries the professional opportunity is unparalleled . We are talking big money, not your run of the mill 200k/ year professional job that may be near the professional apex of a typical midwestern city.  To give you some context, my landscaper pulled seven digits last year....that’s a landscaper.

My buddies in the tech world make that landscapers best year look like minimum wage.

So while a 3 million dollar home and high taxes may seem like a lot to some, it’s important to note that that 150k guy often times has aspirations of being the 1.5 million guy.

I agree that if you don’t have income upside it’s typically not the best state to live in if you are only considering finances.

 
dschuler said:
 Is it worth buying a house in San Diego or is it a bubble?
Click to expand...
Depends on location as usual.  I wouldn’t buy inland but if you are close to the coast(5 miles) in many areas that property has been bulletproof.

 
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TobiasFunke said:
Everything I've read says the exact opposite- that the jobs of the near and distant future are going to be ones that require college degrees and that we need more college grads, not fewer. link  another link (from that hypocrite Bill Gates)

The cost, of course, is a separate and significant issue.

The combination of these two things is the foundation of the progressive push to pay for college for all.
Click to expand...
Disagree.  Less college grads are needed and more people with skills will be needed.  

Obviously if a college grad has skills that’s great...but just getting the skills is more than enough for most folks.  

Edit:  and by the way the cost is not a separate issue.  It’s a significant part of the argument.  A pie in the sky “college for everyone” argument is a separate issue.  But the current, real-world cost of a degree is essential to the point I was making.

 
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