Call it now Sharks...How will Calvin do this year? (1 Viewer)

[cscmtp]

There is a lot of love for Calvin on these boards, and for good reason. I just haven't seen a lot of guys predict his numbers this year, and then where they think he'll start to go in new drafts in 2008.

Anyone think he'll finish with at least 80 catches, 1000+ yards, and double digit TDs this year?

Will he be one of the top 5 WRs drafted in new leagues next year? Top 3? COULD he show enough this year that he actually becomes the first WR off the board in 2008?

Call me crazy, but I think that really could happen. Who else is with me?

 

[Couch Potato]

Don't you want to wait until the draft to ask that? If the Lions take him, for example, no he won't be top-3 with Roy Williams on the other side.

And top-3 is asking a lot. WRs may take a big jump in their 2nd year, but they generally haven't reached full potential that soon. Even if he could be assumed as a top-3 talent, to be top-3 in production there must be a convergence of opportunity, talent, team, and system. Only his talent can be reasonably assured at this point.

 

[Ned]

this is getting to the reggie bush level of hype.

i love this time of year.

 

[DeCleater]

Don't you want to wait until the draft to ask that? If the Lions take him, for example, no he won't be top-3 with Roy Williams on the other side.And top-3 is asking a lot. WRs may take a big jump in their 2nd year, but they generally haven't reached full potential that soon. Even if he could be assumed as a top-3 talent, to be top-3 in production there must be a convergence of opportunity, talent, team, and system. Only his talent can be reasonably assured at this point.

Everything you said is true but look at Randy Moss rookie year with Chris Carter on the other side.

 

[Darth Cheney]

This guy is so good..I'm taking him over LT in this years draft!!!!! In addition to this:

Calvin is the father of every kid in this town!"

"His poop is considered currency in Argentina."

"I once saw him scissor-kick Angela Lansbury."

"Did I ever tell you about the time Calvin took me out to go get a drink with him? We go off looking for a bar and we can't find one. Finally Calvin takes me to a vacant lot and says, 'Here we are.' We sat there for a year and a half — until sure enough, someone constructs a bar around us. Well, the day they opened we ordered a shot, drank it, and then burned the place to the ground. Calvin yelled over the roar of the flames, 'Always leave things the way you found 'em!'"

"He once punched a hole in a cow just to see who was coming up the road."

"He hated Mexicans! And he's half-Mexican! ...And he hated irony!"

"The character of Johnny Appleseed was based on Calvin... except for the part about planting apple trees... and not raping men."

"He did all the makeup on the Planet of the Apes movies."

"He drives an ice cream truck covered in human skulls."

"He orchestrated the merger between UNICEF and Smith & Wesson."

"Did I ever tell you about the time Calvin went hunting? Calvin decides he's going to hunt down all four of the Banana Splits. He stalks and kills every one of them with a machete. They all begged for their lives...except Fleegle."

"We once had a bachelor party for Calvin. He ate the entire cake before we could tell him there was a stripper in it."

"Calvin's family crest is a picture of a barracuda eating Neil Armstrong."

"Calvin named the group Sha Na Na. They did not want to be called that."

"If you drop a phonograph needle on Calvin's nipple, it plays the Beach Boys' Pet Sounds."

"Did I ever tell you about the time he taught his son how to drive? He did it by entering him in the Indy 500. The kid wrecked and died. Calvin said it would've happened sometime."

"He breastfeeds John Madden!"

"He killed Wolfman Jack with a trident."

"Did I ever tell you about the time Calvin and I were in a production of The King and I? Anyway, on opening night, Calvin chloroforms the entire cast, and slowly eats them in front of the audience for two hours. The production got pretty good reviews."

"He sleeps eight hours a night! Well, he was pretty normal when it came to that."

The phrase "No matter where you go, there you are" is actually

come down through the ages from an old Cherokee phrase that

translates:"No matter where you...####, is that Calvin?

AW HELL, RUN!"

Were you aware that Calvin has 6 toes? Someone tried to cut them off but the toe rose up and killed him. I went to the funeral. Man, even Calvin felt sort of bad about that one.

Calvin invented the game Candyland, and he took all the money and used it to purchase stolen Russian uranium and black market body parts in Uzbekistan.

The only reason the Chinese use chopsticks is because Calvin stole all their forks.

"He did 3 tours in 'Nam...... I was in Corpus Christi on business a month ago. I had this eight foot tall Asian waiter, which made me curious. I asked him his name. Sure enough it's Ho Tran Calvin!"

"Calvin drank a full glass of liquid LSD with his eggs. Then he slept for 8 months straight. When he woke he rubbed his eyes and said, 'All in all, I prefer gin.'"

"He has dandruff the size of mice!"

"He jogged with a fridge on his back!"

He went public with his own buttocks and made $7 million."

"They say he bleeds peppermint vodka."

"Did I ever tell ya about the time that Calvin and I took a hot air balloon trip over Los Angeles? Calvin brings an atomic bomb and drops it on the city! Then, he looks at me and says, "It would have happened sooner or later."

"The movie Deliverance was based on Calvin's experiences as a kindergarden teacher."

"His memoirs are tattooed on Ruth Buzzi."

"He's producing Battlefield Earth 2"

 

[cscmtp]

there goes 15 seconds of my life that i'll never get back...

 

[Darth Cheney]

there goes 15 seconds of my life that i'll never get back...

What do you expect? Noone knows where he is going, what system he'll play in , who will be coaching him, who will be throwing him the ball or who will be lining up alongside him THIS YEAR!! Never mind in 2008.

 

[Couch Potato]

Don't you want to wait until the draft to ask that? If the Lions take him, for example, no he won't be top-3 with Roy Williams on the other side.And top-3 is asking a lot. WRs may take a big jump in their 2nd year, but they generally haven't reached full potential that soon. Even if he could be assumed as a top-3 talent, to be top-3 in production there must be a convergence of opportunity, talent, team, and system. Only his talent can be reasonably assured at this point.

Everything you said is true but look at Randy Moss rookie year with Chris Carter on the other side.

And look at a gazillion WRs who didn't post Randy Moss rookie numbers but went on to great careers. It's not good practice to use an exception as a basis for projection. By the way, remember that Moss wasn't taken until the 21st pick in the draft, and was not even the first WR taken (Kevin Dyson). I remember Fantasy Index had more bad than good to say about him that year, and didn't expect much production. So what Moss did was not only exceptional, I don't recall it being predicted by anyone. So, again, you don't use that kind of amazing rookie performance to predict another one. At least I don't. Better to do a study of WRs who were top-5 or top-10 NFL picks and see what they did in their rookie years. I can't link you such a study, but I've seen them and the numbers generally are very underwhelming.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Don't you want to wait until the draft to ask that? If the Lions take him, for example, no he won't be top-3 with Roy Williams on the other side.And top-3 is asking a lot. WRs may take a big jump in their 2nd year, but they generally haven't reached full potential that soon. Even if he could be assumed as a top-3 talent, to be top-3 in production there must be a convergence of opportunity, talent, team, and system. Only his talent can be reasonably assured at this point.

Everything you said is true but look at Randy Moss rookie year with Chris Carter on the other side.

And look at a gazillion WRs who didn't post Randy Moss rookie numbers but went on to great careers. It's not good practice to use an exception as a basis for projection. By the way, remember that Moss wasn't taken until the 21st pick in the draft, and was not even the first WR taken (Kevin Dyson). I remember Fantasy Index had more bad than good to say about him that year, and didn't expect much production. So what Moss did was not only exceptional, I don't recall it being predicted by anyone. So, again, you don't use that kind of amazing rookie performance to predict another one. At least I don't. Better to do a study of WRs who were top-5 or top-10 NFL picks and see what they did in their rookie years. I can't link you such a study, but I've seen them and the numbers generally are very underwhelming.

That sums it up. He's an overwhelming talent but so much of what he might be able to do is tied his supporting cast (or lack thereof). And history has proven that the odds are not stacked in the favor of a rookie WR - no matter the level of talent. Calvin being drafted in the top 3 in '08? I'd estimate the odds are less than 1%

 

[cscmtp]

All valid points. But what seperates Calvin from most of the last "can't miss" WR prospects the last few years are his work ethic, attitude, and a clean record. Can't say the same for Mike Williams, Charles Rogers, or even Randy Moss. Also, remember how people not only talked about how good Fitz was coming out, but how great his character was? He loved the game, lived on the practice field, etc? EXACT same things can be said for Calvin. I guess when you take into account his physical skills, and then pair it together with his work ethic and character, I think we're looking at as close to a cant miss prospect as I can remember. Finally, he didn't have a great QB and college system to pad his stats. If anything, the world hasn't even seen what this kid can do yet.

 

[Marc Levin]

It's not good practice to use an exception as a basis for projection.

As my first post back in the SP in several moons, I think this is a response I need to make:Learn the above and use it as a mantra. It is also a debate/logic mantra - do not use the exception to prove a rule.Since rookies are volatile (in that they have no history/use in system as a point of reference), we have a tendency to, instead, equate them with a similarly touted rookie of the same position.There is no logical basis to think Calvin Johnson will react to the NFL like Randy Moss or like Anquan Boldin - and to even attempt such projections now, based on his talent alone, is at best utter speculation.(BTW, I have come around to Mr. Magaw's way of thinking and I think Calvin Johnson is an incredible, once every few years, kind of talent, ala Reggie Bush. That does not mean I automatically believe he will have a stellar early fantasy career)

 

[Marc Levin]

But what seperates Calvin from most of the last "can't miss" WR prospects the last few years are his work ethic, attitude, and a clean record.

To head it off early, "Larry Fitzgerald down?"How many "can't miss" prospects at WR are there the last few years? If anything, there is a glut of talent in the NFL at the skill positions - especially WR and RB. Therefore, calling anyone can't miss at the talent level is misleading - I believe the system, the coaching, and the QB will mean more to a young WR's early success than his individual good qualities.

 

[DeCleater]

Don't you want to wait until the draft to ask that? If the Lions take him, for example, no he won't be top-3 with Roy Williams on the other side.

And top-3 is asking a lot. WRs may take a big jump in their 2nd year, but they generally haven't reached full potential that soon. Even if he could be assumed as a top-3 talent, to be top-3 in production there must be a convergence of opportunity, talent, team, and system. Only his talent can be reasonably assured at this point.

Everything you said is true but look at Randy Moss rookie year with Chris Carter on the other side.

And look at a gazillion WRs who didn't post Randy Moss rookie numbers but went on to great careers. It's not good practice to use an exception as a basis for projection. By the way, remember that Moss wasn't taken until the 21st pick in the draft, and was not even the first WR taken (Kevin Dyson). I remember Fantasy Index had more bad than good to say about him that year, and didn't expect much production. So what Moss did was not only exceptional, I don't recall it being predicted by anyone. So, again, you don't use that kind of amazing rookie performance to predict another one. At least I don't. Better to do a study of WRs who were top-5 or top-10 NFL picks and see what they did in their rookie years. I can't link you such a study, but I've seen them and the numbers generally are very underwhelming.

Even if he could be assumed as a top-3 talent, to be top-3 in production there must be a convergence of opportunity, talent, team, and systemWhich is why I said I agree with you. Yes, rookie WR's rarely post good numbers but given the right situation CJ could and I would expect that he would. No one ever doubted Moss's talent, he fell to 21 on character issues. Coming out of college Moss looked better than Jerry Rice, I think CJ looks better than Moss entering the NFL. If he goes to Tampa I would expect close to Moss numbers his rookie year (80+ catches, 1200+ yards, and 10+ TD's). Look at his college numbers and who he had at QB. He put up huge numbers and didn't have Chad Pennington throwing him the ball. Many people have called him the best WR prospect ever. I would agree with that. But you are right that it would take the right situation for him to have monster rookie year. But don't be surprised if he does.