Calling all stat freaks (1 Viewer)

[valhallan]

Alright I'm in a 4-team playoff league that starts 3 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, with each coming from a different NFL team. We're doing a 12-round draft, so there's no bench - just start 'em and go. I'm trying to come up with some VBD numbers and have decided there are two factors to consider: a) the value relative to others at his position, and b) the value relative to others on his NFL team. So my main question is what weight do you put on each of those values? Is one more important than the other? Why? Here are some interesting points to consider:- Peyton Manning is 3rd overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 26th overall when ranked by team VBD (because of Harrison, Wayne, and James)- Steve Smith is 27th overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 3rd overall when ranked by team VBD (because the Panthers 4th best player is their defense, which doesn't score much in our system)So how do you decide which VBD number to follow? My initial instinct is to use the standard positional VBD to start the draft, but move toward the team VBD later.Thoughts?

 

[bobspruill]

Alright I'm in a 4-team playoff league that starts 3 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, with each coming from a different NFL team. We're doing a 12-round draft, so there's no bench - just start 'em and go. I'm trying to come up with some VBD numbers and have decided there are two factors to consider: a) the value relative to others at his position, and b) the value relative to others on his NFL team. So my main question is what weight do you put on each of those values? Is one more important than the other? Why?

Here are some interesting points to consider:

- Peyton Manning is 3rd overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 26th overall when ranked by team VBD (because of Harrison, Wayne, and James)

- Steve Smith is 27th overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 3rd overall when ranked by team VBD (because the Panthers 4th best player is their defense, which doesn't score much in our system)

So how do you decide which VBD number to follow? My initial instinct is to use the standard positional VBD to start the draft, but move toward the team VBD later.

Thoughts?

I guess I don't understand this very well. How could P. Manning be 26th on any list (below the median), when he's the QB who's most likely to play 3 games?

 

[CalBear]

Alright I'm in a 4-team playoff league that starts 3 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, with each coming from a different NFL team. We're doing a 12-round draft, so there's no bench - just start 'em and go. I'm trying to come up with some VBD numbers and have decided there are two factors to consider: a) the value relative to others at his position, and b) the value relative to others on his NFL team. So my main question is what weight do you put on each of those values? Is one more important than the other? Why?

Here are some interesting points to consider:

- Peyton Manning is 3rd overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 26th overall when ranked by team VBD (because of Harrison, Wayne, and James)

- Steve Smith is 27th overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 3rd overall when ranked by team VBD (because the Panthers 4th best player is their defense, which doesn't score much in our system)

So how do you decide which VBD number to follow? My initial instinct is to use the standard positional VBD to start the draft, but move toward the team VBD later.

Thoughts?

I don't think VBD is the right way to look at this problem; VBD is a linear measure, and you're trying to maximize a 2-D matrix. Doing straight numerical analysis in a draft like this is quite tricky, because the values of players will vary wildly based on who has already chosen from a specific team. (That is, once you have chosen a Colt, all the rest of the Colts have zero value for you, and once you have chosen a QB, all the rest of the QBs have zero value). The format will have serious logistical problems. What if I chose Edgerrin James, and it's the last round and the only defense left is the Colts? One thing is clear; in this format your first pick should be a RB, and if there are any starting RBs left at your second pick, your second pick should be a RB, too. Starting thirty-six RBs from 12 teams means that one-third of the league will be putting up flat zeros at this position, and another third will be putting up Kevin Faulk numbers. Ron Dayne is going to be on a roster; make sure it's not yours.

There are 12 starting QBs, 12 starting kickers, 12+ starting TEs, and 12 starting defenses to choose from. Those positions will not suffer from scarcity; they should be the last four picks of your draft.

I think you can use VBD wiith the RBs and WRs, with last-starter as a baseline. That means the baseline for RBs is essentially zero, with the WR baseline somewhat higher. From there, you can probably eyeball the team exclusion situation, but I don't think the team exclusion should affect your choices very much, since the player pool is so small anyway.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

Alright I'm in a 4-team playoff league that starts 3 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, with each coming from a different NFL team. We're doing a 12-round draft, so there's no bench - just start 'em and go. I'm trying to come up with some VBD numbers and have decided there are two factors to consider: a) the value relative to others at his position, and b) the value relative to others on his NFL team. So my main question is what weight do you put on each of those values? Is one more important than the other? Why?

Here are some interesting points to consider:

- Peyton Manning is 3rd overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 26th overall when ranked by team VBD (because of Harrison, Wayne, and James)

- Steve Smith is 27th overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 3rd overall when ranked by team VBD (because the Panthers 4th best player is their defense, which doesn't score much in our system)

So how do you decide which VBD number to follow? My initial instinct is to use the standard positional VBD to start the draft, but move toward the team VBD later.

Thoughts?

I don't think VBD is the right way to look at this problem; VBD is a linear measure, and you're trying to maximize a 2-D matrix. Doing straight numerical analysis in a draft like this is quite tricky, because the values of players will vary wildly based on who has already chosen from a specific team. (That is, once you have chosen a Colt, all the rest of the Colts have zero value for you, and once you have chosen a QB, all the rest of the QBs have zero value). The format will have serious logistical problems. What if I chose Edgerrin James, and it's the last round and the only defense left is the Colts? One thing is clear; in this format your first pick should be a RB, and if there are any starting RBs left at your second pick, your second pick should be a RB, too. Starting thirty-six RBs from 12 teams means that one-third of the league will be putting up flat zeros at this position, and another third will be putting up Kevin Faulk numbers. Ron Dayne is going to be on a roster; make sure it's not yours.

There are 12 starting QBs, 12 starting kickers, 12+ starting TEs, and 12 starting defenses to choose from. Those positions will not suffer from scarcity; they should be the last four picks of your draft.

I think you can use VBD wiith the RBs and WRs, with last-starter as a baseline. That means the baseline for RBs is essentially zero, with the WR baseline somewhat higher. From there, you can probably eyeball the team exclusion situation, but I don't think the team exclusion should affect your choices very much, since the player pool is so small anyway.

Psst. He said it's only 4 teams, not 12. There are only 12 RBs to be drafted total

 

[CalBear]

Oops. Ignore that.Coherent response to follow.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

Alright I'm in a 4-team playoff league that starts 3 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, and 1 D, with each coming from a different NFL team. We're doing a 12-round draft, so there's no bench - just start 'em and go. I'm trying to come up with some VBD numbers and have decided there are two factors to consider: a) the value relative to others at his position, and b) the value relative to others on his NFL team. So my main question is what weight do you put on each of those values? Is one more important than the other? Why?

Here are some interesting points to consider:

- Peyton Manning is 3rd overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 26th overall when ranked by team VBD (because of Harrison, Wayne, and James)

- Steve Smith is 27th overall when ranked by positional VBD, yet 3rd overall when ranked by team VBD (because the Panthers 4th best player is their defense, which doesn't score much in our system)

So how do you decide which VBD number to follow? My initial instinct is to use the standard positional VBD to start the draft, but move toward the team VBD later.

Thoughts?

I guess I don't understand this very well. How could P. Manning be 26th on any list (below the median), when he's the QB who's most likely to play 3 games?

Because the difference between Manning and the 4th best Colt (Wayne) isn't as big as the difference between, say Thomas Jones, and the 4th best Bear (Muhammad?)I think it's more important to focus on the Positional VBD, but keep an Eye to the team scoring. As calbear said, once 3 players from a team are taken, you can pencil in a player you want from that team, and wait to draft them. Similarly, as a position gets filled up, you don't need to rush to take the last player at the position.

I think you are on the right track by looking roughly Positional VBD early, then focusing on the team value later. But again as calbear mentioned, this will be tough to track because players may drop out of the VBD equation without getting picked based on other players form that team being picked. (e.g., your top rated K by positional vbd might be Vanderjagt, but if as one might expect, Manning, James, Harrison, and Wayne get taken, Vandy has to just come off the list at Kicker and your baseline drops further down.)

You should plan for your low scoring positions (particularly K and TE) to come from teams you don't think will win any games.

 

[CalBear]

OK, with four teams, you still have the problem of the value matrix; if the other three guys choose Manning, Harrison, and James as the first three picks, none of them can chose another Colt, so you get to pick which one of the remainder you want. So where the value is will depend greatly on what everyone has selected so far; you can't just look at a VBD number, however it's derived. If you are on your toes, you'll be able to notice that the other guys have all taken QBs and Colts, so you can wait until the last two rounds to take your QB and your Colt. It will be important to come up with realistic projections. You can probably use the PPG totals from the regular season as a baseline, and then modify that by the expected number of games the player will be playing. (If you want to get tricky, you can modify the PPG expectation based on the defenses the player will be facing). This will probably come up with a number that's lower than you might expect for the good teams. Even if you give the Colts a 70% chance of winning in each of two games, and Carolina just a 30% chance of winning their games, that means the expected return on a Colt is 2.09 times the PPG value, whereas a Panther gets 1.42 times the PPG value. People are likely to over-value the players on good teams in this format; be analytical.RB is the only position with any scarcity in this format; after Alexander and James, the RBs all have pretty serious questions about either their production or their team's likelihood for success (or both). Again, I don't think pure VBD helps you that much here, because it's really hard to set a decent baseline. But be aware that you will need to choose your RBs early; DeShaun Foster, Fast Willie Parker, and Fred Taylor are all picks you don't want to have to make, while the worst WRs will be Mushin Muhammad, Rod Smith, Jimmy Smith, who are not bad for #3 guys. The QBs will be Manning, Hasselbeck, Palmer, and Brady/Plummer; can't really go wrong there, so forget about the QB early.I would worry about team affiliations only insofaras it affects my RB choices, and to a lesser extent, QB. For QB, just make sure you don't shut yourself out of the top 5 listed above; for RB, don't shut yourself out of the top 6 or 7 RBs. You can find WRs, TEs, Ds, and Ks.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

RB is the only position with any scarcity in this format...

... The QBs will be Manning, Hasselbeck, Palmer, and Brady/Plummer; can't really go wrong there, so forget about the QB early.

Again, not to be a pest but I don't think you're reading it correctly. Each of the 4 teams has to select 3 QBs, so all 12 starting QBs will have to get picked (unless you get something wierd like one player taking Leftwich and another taking Garrard) Scarcity is definitely an issue at QB as well.I think it is almost as important to get high scorers at QB as it is at RB. (not quite, because there will be several 2 game QBs who score decent, while many 2 game RBs may not score as well because they just aren't that good - the top ones will be much more valuable) Just remember that once it gets down to the QBs you predict for 1 game only, the difference in their scores is going to be minimal (Even a bad QB will usually score you 10 points in a game), so you may as well slough off the position until the end.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Interesting problem.You may want to consider thinking out of the box and working backwards.The constraint that is key is that you must have 4 players from every team - no more, no less.Write down the 4 best players on all 12 teams, regardless of position. Include kickers and defenses.Then, align those lists by position. You'll see a problem soon enough - you can't reach an equilibrium. For example, let's take the Colts. You have Edge, Manning, Harrison and Wayne. What about the D or K? Clark a Top 4 TE?I would work the problem from both ends, just drafting on your own as if you were running 4 teams yourself for the first 6 or 7 rounds. See who comes off the board. Mostly QB/RB/WR is likely. See what's left, and what teams are filled up. Take note of which teams have 3 go off the board that quickly (my guess - Indy and Seattle, maybe NY). Then see what teams are being neglected. Fill out you ideal roster with the best player from each team, and think about getting 9-10 of those (all but maybe D, TE or K depending on the least likely to score many points). Draft the first 3 or 4 rounds right off that list, then jump to the teams that will lose players on your ideal list first. Example - TB. Galloway and Cadillac are your top 2 (either order). It may seem odd but consider taking one of those two far earlier than others would expect, ESPECIALLY if you can live with a K, TE or D from another team that will lose 3 players fast (again - Indy). Vandy will likely still be there for you (or Clark or the D) after Edge, Peyton and Harrison go. If you can live with one of those 3, then that's your 12th pick. Pick up Tom Brady or Corey Dillon early. Know going in that the last 4 rounds will be an "all stop" to fill in your rosters - virtually everyone will lock to a player / team. Don't get stuck - know what those last 4 will be and you'll be way ahead. Let Shockey and Stevens go to someone else and live with Heath Miller or Chris Cooley. Lots of strategy here, and frankly I'm thinking of doing this on my own just for fun.Edit to add:This "problem" can be further simplified by your roster constraints:12 QBs - every team will have a QB picked.12 RBs - I see every team's #1 RB option getting selected, with the possible exception of Jacksonville. Bettis or Bell may go instead.12 WRs - Fun stuff now. Harrison, Wayne, Rod Smith, CJohnson, and HWard go from the AFC for sure. NFC - SMoss, SSmith, Plaxico, Galloway, MMuhammad, and likely DJax. That's 11. JSmith may go from Jacksonville. NE may have Givens or Branch.4 TEs - Cooley, Shockey and Stevens from Seattle. Dallas Clark may go, but only if there is not a conflict. Heath Miller or Jeb Putzier likely.4 Ks and 4 Ds - whatever fits. The interesting part is that you're really only picking the #1 RB, #1 WR and the QB then whatever fits. Let us know the results.

 

[bobspruill]

As I see it, the two big factors that will influence your projections are your sense of the relative strength of the playoff teams and the scoring system you're using.Usually, scoring inequities across positions only really come up in connection with flex spots. Here, though, you're going to have unequal lineups. Since you're playing 4-on-4 in week 3 and 2-on-2 in week 4, whoever has players at the higher-scoring positions in those games will win.All this is just to say that a good rough-justice way of doing the first few picks would be to establish an order of preference among the teams and use that as a way of narrowing the range of decisions you have to make. Do everything you can to find guys at the high-scoring positions who you think are going to be on the field.If you want to put a number to all this, estimate value by PPG * expected number of games played. I wouldn't bother trying to futz with multipliers or baselines to make a VBD-type draft sheet that takes relative scarcity into account. What you want is points, wherever they come from. Your RB doesn't have to be better than all the other RB's in the pool; he just has to be playing while the better ones are watching him on TV.Tracking info will be crucial, for reasons stated elsewhere in this thread. It's a nifty format. This is the only draft situation I've seen where your opponents really do make your pick for you in some cases.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Interesting problem.

You may want to consider thinking out of the box and working backwards.

The constraint that is key is that you must have 4 players from every team - no more, no less.

Write down the 4 best players on all 12 teams, regardless of position. Include kickers and defenses.

Then, align those lists by position. You'll see a problem soon enough - you can't reach an equilibrium. For example, let's take the Colts. You have Edge, Manning, Harrison and Wayne. What about the D or K? Clark a Top 4 TE?

I would work the problem from both ends, just drafting on your own as if you were running 4 teams yourself for the first 6 or 7 rounds. See who comes off the board. Mostly QB/RB/WR is likely. See what's left, and what teams are filled up. Take note of which teams have 3 go off the board that quickly (my guess - Indy and Seattle, maybe NY). Then see what teams are being neglected. Fill out you ideal roster with the best player from each team, and think about getting 9-10 of those (all but maybe D, TE or K depending on the least likely to score many points). Draft the first 3 or 4 rounds right off that list, then jump to the teams that will lose players on your ideal list first.

Example - TB. Galloway and Cadillac are your top 2 (either order). It may seem odd but consider taking one of those two far earlier than others would expect, ESPECIALLY if you can live with a K, TE or D from another team that will lose 3 players fast (again - Indy). Vandy will likely still be there for you (or Clark or the D) after Edge, Peyton and Harrison go. If you can live with one of those 3, then that's your 12th pick. Pick up Tom Brady or Corey Dillon early.

Know going in that the last 4 rounds will be an "all stop" to fill in your rosters - virtually everyone will lock to a player / team. Don't get stuck - know what those last 4 will be and you'll be way ahead. Let Shockey and Stevens go to someone else and live with Heath Miller or Chris Cooley.

Lots of strategy here, and frankly I'm thinking of doing this on my own just for fun.

Edit to add:

This "problem" can be further simplified by your roster constraints:

12 QBs - every team will have a QB picked.

12 RBs - I see every team's #1 RB option getting selected, with the possible exception of Jacksonville. Bettis or Bell may go instead.

12 WRs - Fun stuff now. Harrison, Wayne, Rod Smith, CJohnson, and HWard go from the AFC for sure. NFC - SMoss, SSmith, Plaxico, Galloway, MMuhammad, and likely DJax. That's 11. JSmith may go from Jacksonville. NE may have Givens or Branch.

4 TEs - Cooley, Shockey and Stevens from Seattle. Dallas Clark may go, but only if there is not a conflict. Heath Miller or Jeb Putzier likely.

4 Ks and 4 Ds - whatever fits.

The interesting part is that you're really only picking the #1 RB, #1 WR and the QB then whatever fits.

Let us know the results.

I did a mock draft for this, and found a few quirks.1. RBs lock - fast. (Lock means that there is either one slot left OR three owners already have players from that NFL team). DeShaun Foster locked for me as the #12 RB in about the 6th round.

2. QBs lock next. Watch out.

3. Colts lock out fast too. Like by Round 2.

4. Watch out for a Jacksonville lock. Gets a little hairy finding that 4th guy, especially if you fill your RB slots up and don't / can't take Taylor or Greg Jones.

Good luck.

 

[bostonfred]

Manning's history suggests that he is fairly likely to play just one game, or maybe two, and the first round bye makes it impossible for him to play four. I like Alexander, Hasselbeck and Brady a ton in this system, and would like Barber more if I didn't think Carolina was going to win that game.

 

[valhallan]

Wow, wonderful responses so far. I don't quite have the energy to do them all justice right now, but I'll get back to this in the morning.Thanks guys

 

[Doug Drinen]

Manning's history suggests that he is fairly likely to play just one game, or maybe two

Manning's teams have a history of winning playoff games in which they are the higher seed.

 

[valhallan]

It will be important to come up with realistic projections. You can probably use the PPG totals from the regular season as a baseline, and then modify that by the expected number of games the player will be playing. (If you want to get tricky, you can modify the PPG expectation based on the defenses the player will be facing). This will probably come up with a number that's lower than you might expect for the good teams. Even if you give the Colts a 70% chance of winning in each of two games, and Carolina just a 30% chance of winning their games, that means the expected return on a Colt is 2.09 times the PPG value, whereas a Panther gets 1.42 times the PPG value.

Funny, I did exactly that. My projected games are:IND 2.25

SEA 2.25

DEN 2.00

CHI 2.00

CIN 1.85

NE 1.85

NYG 1.85

TB 1.85

JAX 1.52

PIT 1.52

CAR 1.52

WAS 1.52

That's all based on their seed and some basic historical trends. I could probably make it even more accurate but I feel pretty comfortable with these numbers.

I multiplied those by their PPG game this season and have the following top 20:

R  Player         Score1  Alexander      53.332  James          44.553  Harrison       41.184  Barber         38.385  D.Jackson      38.256  P.Manning      36.907  C.Johnson      34.308  Hasselbeck     33.759  Palmer         33.3810	Wayne          31.7311	Brady          30.9612	S.Smith        30.8713	Houshmandzadeh	30.4114	Galloway       30.2215	T.Jones        30.2016	R.Smith        29.8017	R.Johnson      28.9318	Plummer        28.4019	Engram         28.3520	Dillon         28.18

 

[valhallan]

If you want to put a number to all this, estimate value by PPG * expected number of games played. I wouldn't bother trying to futz with multipliers or baselines to make a VBD-type draft sheet that takes relative scarcity into account. What you want is points, wherever they come from. Your RB doesn't have to be better than all the other RB's in the pool; he just has to be playing while the better ones are watching him on TV.

Agree completely. VBD is a bit useful though, as there are only 3 WRs in the top 20 when you go by the worst-starter method. I should probably stay away from them until I've filled out most of my RBs and QBs and maybe even grab the highest K or D if their value is higher than one of the many clone receivers left.

 

[valhallan]

I did a mock draft for this, and found a few quirks.

1. RBs lock - fast. (Lock means that there is either one slot left OR three owners already have players from that NFL team). DeShaun Foster locked for me as the #12 RB in about the 6th round.

2. QBs lock next. Watch out.

3. Colts lock out fast too. Like by Round 2.

4. Watch out for a Jacksonville lock. Gets a little hairy finding that 4th guy, especially if you fill your RB slots up and don't / can't take Taylor or Greg Jones.

Good luck.

Very cool Based on your warnings, I think my instinct to hold off on receivers has been reinforced.

#4 presents an interesting problem. As mentioned earlier, I'll want to fill my K and D slots with teams that I don't think will go very far. It might actually make sense to pass up a mid-round receiver like Houshmandzedah or Engram to grab Jacksonville's (or another team I think will get bounced early) K or D and force my opponents into using favored teams for those slots while I snag Engram later.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Funny, I did exactly that. My projected games are:

IND 2.25

SEA 2.25

DEN 2.00

CHI 2.00

CIN 1.85

NE 1.85

NYG 1.85

TB 1.85

JAX 1.52

PIT 1.52

CAR 1.52

WAS 1.52

Here are mine, based on a few thousand simulations, with probabilities coming from:(1) the money lines on this week's games.

(2) historical probabilities given each team's record and HFA for future games.

ind 2.38

nwe 2.15

sea 2.10

den 1.97

tam 1.97

nyg 1.86

car 1.75

pit 1.73

was 1.68

chi 1.65

cin 1.51

jax 1.27

 

[jeff_eaglz]

I did a mock draft for this, and found a few quirks.

1. RBs lock - fast. (Lock means that there is either one slot left OR three owners already have players from that NFL team). DeShaun Foster locked for me as the #12 RB in about the 6th round.

2. QBs lock next. Watch out.

3. Colts lock out fast too. Like by Round 2.

4. Watch out for a Jacksonville lock. Gets a little hairy finding that 4th guy, especially if you fill your RB slots up and don't / can't take Taylor or Greg Jones.

Good luck.

Very cool Based on your warnings, I think my instinct to hold off on receivers has been reinforced.

#4 presents an interesting problem. As mentioned earlier, I'll want to fill my K and D slots with teams that I don't think will go very far. It might actually make sense to pass up a mid-round receiver like Houshmandzedah or Engram to grab Jacksonville's (or another team I think will get bounced early) K or D and force my opponents into using favored teams for those slots while I snag Engram later.

Sure thing. It was fun. I'd be interested in doing a 4 league team for fun if anyone else wanted to give this a go.

 

[Mungo Burrows]

So what did this draft end up looking like?

 

[Bri]

playoffs are unpredictable IMO and you should just wing it and have fun.

 

[Family Matters]

So then if I understand this, this isn't about getting the best players, it's about "guessing" which team(s) will make it the furthest in the playoffs. Of course we have an idea who they will be so then it comes down to "guessing" which team is the spoiler and who gets upset early, because that always seems to happen.So this is a "guessing" game? Not much fun IMO. I'm sure some of you guys enjoy this but this doesn't really resemble fantasy football all that much. It's more like a pool of chance.

 

[valhallan]

So what did this draft end up looking like?

Doing it today at 130.. I will post the results tonight

 

[valhallan]

So then if I understand this, this isn't about getting the best players, it's about "guessing" which team(s) will make it the furthest in the playoffs. Of course we have an idea who they will be so then it comes down to "guessing" which team is the spoiler and who gets upset early, because that always seems to happen.

So this is a "guessing" game? Not much fun IMO. I'm sure some of you guys enjoy this but this doesn't really resemble fantasy football all that much. It's more like a pool of chance.

If we were getting the best players, we would certainly have to know who will go furthest in the playoffs. But what we're really trying to do is force everyone to have a dog in every game and see who played their cards right by having productive players in every spot.All fantasy playoff leagues involve chance compared to the regular season because you don't know how many games each team will play. So are you simply not a fan of playing fantasy football during the playoffs? If so, that's fine. For those of us who do like to continue the fun, this format is unique and provides a different brand of strategy.

 

[Family Matters]

So then if I understand this, this isn't about getting the best players, it's about "guessing" which team(s) will make it the furthest in the playoffs. Of course we have an idea who they will be so then it comes down to "guessing" which team is the spoiler and who gets upset early, because that always seems to happen.

So this is a "guessing" game? Not much fun IMO. I'm sure some of you guys enjoy this but this doesn't really resemble fantasy football all that much. It's more like a pool of chance.

If we were getting the best players, we would certainly have to know who will go furthest in the playoffs. But what we're really trying to do is force everyone to have a dog in every game and see who played their cards right by having productive players in every spot.All fantasy playoff leagues involve chance compared to the regular season because you don't know how many games each team will play. So are you simply not a fan of playing fantasy football during the playoffs? If so, that's fine. For those of us who do like to continue the fun, this format is unique and provides a different brand of strategy.

True I'm not a fan but I can understand why you would be. Also it seems that if you guess the QB's correctly then clearly you have an edge that would be difficult to overcome with a start 3 QB system. I don't know what the scoring rules are but if they work like most fantasy leagues then you have to have the right picks on your QB's or don't stand a chance in this thing.But the reason I'm not a fan is because it leaves alot more to the luck factor than regular season FF leagues. Skill is watered down in this format and if I'm going bank on luck I'd just assume leave that for the lottery or Vegas.

 

[valhallan]

So then if I understand this, this isn't about getting the best players, it's about "guessing" which team(s) will make it the furthest in the playoffs. Of course we have an idea who they will be so then it comes down to "guessing" which team is the spoiler and who gets upset early, because that always seems to happen.

So this is a "guessing" game? Not much fun IMO. I'm sure some of you guys enjoy this but this doesn't really resemble fantasy football all that much. It's more like a pool of chance.

If we were getting the best players, we would certainly have to know who will go furthest in the playoffs. But what we're really trying to do is force everyone to have a dog in every game and see who played their cards right by having productive players in every spot.All fantasy playoff leagues involve chance compared to the regular season because you don't know how many games each team will play. So are you simply not a fan of playing fantasy football during the playoffs? If so, that's fine. For those of us who do like to continue the fun, this format is unique and provides a different brand of strategy.

True I'm not a fan but I can understand why you would be. Also it seems that if you guess the QB's correctly then clearly you have an edge that would be difficult to overcome with a start 3 QB system. I don't know what the scoring rules are but if they work like most fantasy leagues then you have to have the right picks on your QB's or don't stand a chance in this thing.But the reason I'm not a fan is because it leaves alot more to the luck factor than regular season FF leagues. Skill is watered down in this format and if I'm going bank on luck I'd just assume leave that for the lottery or Vegas.

Being that there's only 4 owners, I think everyone knows QBs are a premium. The scoring rules limit their dominance though, with 4 pt passing TDs and PPR for RB/WR/TE. I'm quite sure this league is going to be won in the mid-rounds, but I've never done it before and am looking forward to seeing how it shakes out.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

So then if I understand this, this isn't about getting the best players, it's about "guessing" which team(s) will make it the furthest in the playoffs. Of course we have an idea who they will be so then it comes down to "guessing" which team is the spoiler and who gets upset early, because that always seems to happen.

So this is a "guessing" game? Not much fun IMO. I'm sure some of you guys enjoy this but this doesn't really resemble fantasy football all that much. It's more like a pool of chance.

If we were getting the best players, we would certainly have to know who will go furthest in the playoffs. But what we're really trying to do is force everyone to have a dog in every game and see who played their cards right by having productive players in every spot.All fantasy playoff leagues involve chance compared to the regular season because you don't know how many games each team will play. So are you simply not a fan of playing fantasy football during the playoffs? If so, that's fine. For those of us who do like to continue the fun, this format is unique and provides a different brand of strategy.

True I'm not a fan but I can understand why you would be. Also it seems that if you guess the QB's correctly then clearly you have an edge that would be difficult to overcome with a start 3 QB system. I don't know what the scoring rules are but if they work like most fantasy leagues then you have to have the right picks on your QB's or don't stand a chance in this thing.But the reason I'm not a fan is because it leaves alot more to the luck factor than regular season FF leagues. Skill is watered down in this format and if I'm going bank on luck I'd just assume leave that for the lottery or Vegas.

Being that there's only 4 owners, I think everyone knows QBs are a premium. The scoring rules limit their dominance though, with 4 pt passing TDs and PPR for RB/WR/TE. I'm quite sure this league is going to be won in the mid-rounds, but I've never done it before and am looking forward to seeing how it shakes out.

If seeds held true, there would be 4 teams in each conference playing 2 games, and 2 teams (5 and 6 seeds) playing one. Thus 2 teams would play 3, 6 play 2, 4 play 1.That's if seeds hold. We all know that isn't always the case.

Drafting would seem to shuffle these around - Hass, Brady and Peyton will be the first 3 off the board. Eli and Palmer, Delhomme with possibly Plummer next. Pitt, Wash, TB, Chi and Jax will be last.

Odds are that the first 3 will be spread around, and most teams will have 2 of the Top 7 on this list. The 8th will likely be stronger at RB and/or WR.

I don't think there's a big bias for or against QBs.

 

[valhallan]

Real quick, here's how the draft went:1 Alex, Barber, P.Mann, S.Smith2 Palmer, Brady, C.Johnson, Plummer3 R.Johnson, Hass, T.Jones, Ward4 Edge, Galloway, Harrison, S.Moss5 E.Mann, Dillon, Portis, Cooley6 Simms, Delhomme, Lefty, Roeth7 Branch, Bunell, M.Anderson, Taylor8 Bell, Shockey, Muhammad, Caddy9 Wayne, Foster, DJax, Burress10 New England, Pitt, Miller, Chicago11 Scobee, Denver, Graham, J.Brown12 Grossman, J.Smith, Bryant, MangumSome people definitely ran into problems with the team constraints.. it was fun. I'll update this once some scores are in.Later guys

 

[Family Matters]

Real quick, here's how the draft went:

1 Alex, Barber, P.Mann, S.Smith

2 Palmer, Brady, C.Johnson, Plummer

3 R.Johnson, Hass, T.Jones, Ward

4 Edge, Galloway, Harrison, S.Moss

5 E.Mann, Dillon, Portis, Cooley

6 Simms, Delhomme, Lefty, Roeth

7 Branch, Bunell, M.Anderson, Taylor

8 Bell, Shockey, Muhammad, Caddy

9 Wayne, Foster, DJax, Burress

10 New England, Pitt, Miller, Chicago

11 Scobee, Denver, Graham, J.Brown

12 Grossman, J.Smith, Bryant, Mangum

Some people definitely ran into problems with the team constraints.. it was fun. I'll update this once some scores are in.

Later guys

Good luck and let us know how it turns out.

 

[bostonfred]

Manning's history suggests that he is fairly likely to play just one game, or maybe two

Manning's teams have a history of winning playoff games in which they are the higher seed.

Manning has appeared in one game, one game, one game, three games, and two games, in five playoff appearances. He was not only starter caliber, but a fantasy monster in the wins, but he has never had a "good" fantasy game in a playoff loss. Manning has also never been to a Superbowl, and while I can understand why some would debate it, I really don't see that changing this year. Which, with the first round bye, means he probably won't get you more than one start caliber game, and two playoff games overall.

Even if he makes it to a Superbowl, though, Manning will have at most three playoff games with which to accrue points due to the bye.

Personally, I steered clear of him in my postseason league because he will either play New England, Jacksonville, or Pittsburgh in his first game, and he generally has not fared well against them. Personlly, I like Brady and Hasselbeck best as playoff QBs this year.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Real quick, here's how the draft went:

1 Alex, Barber, P.Mann, S.Smith

2 Palmer, Brady, C.Johnson, Plummer

3 R.Johnson, Hass, T.Jones, Ward

4 Edge, Galloway, Harrison, S.Moss

5 E.Mann, Dillon, Portis, Cooley

6 Simms, Delhomme, Lefty, Roeth

7 Branch, Bunell, M.Anderson, Taylor

8 Bell, Shockey, Muhammad, Caddy

9 Wayne, Foster, DJax, Burress

10 New England, Pitt, Miller, Chicago

11 Scobee, Denver, Graham, J.Brown

12 Grossman, J.Smith, Bryant, Mangum

Some people definitely ran into problems with the team constraints.. it was fun. I'll update this once some scores are in.

Later guys

Here was my "mock" draft. I liked the idea so much I put together my own virtual league to see how this goes.1.01 Shaun Alexander

1.02 Peyton Manning

1.03 Edgerrin James

1.04 Tom Brady

2.01 Carson Palmer

2.02 Corey Dillon

2.03 Matt Hasselbeck

2.04 Tiki Barber

3.01 Marvin Harrison

3.02 Steve Smith

3.03 Thomas Jones

3.04 Mike Anderson

4.01 Jake Delhomme

4.02 Clinton Portis

4.03 DeShaun Foster

4.04 Chad Johnson

5.01 Cadillac Williams

5.02 Rod Smith

5.03 Hines Ward

5.04 Fast Willie Parker

6.01 Jake Plummer

6.02 Ben Roethlisberger

6.03 Eli Manning

6.04 Mark Brunell

7.01 Plaxico Burress

7.02 Chris Simms

7.03 Byron Leftwich

7.04 Joey Galloway

8.01 Muhsin Muhammad

8.02 BEARS

8.03 Chris Cooley

8.04 Jerramy Stevens

9.01 Adam Vinatieri

9.02 Jimmy Smith

9.03 Shayne Graham

9.04 Josh Scobee

10.01 Heath Miller

10.02 Josh Brown

10.03 Deion Branch

10.04 Rex Grossman

11.01 REDSKINS

11.02 Rudi Johnson

11.03 BUCCANEERS

11.04 PANTHERS

12.01 Fred Taylor

12.02 Jeremy Shockey

12.03 Jason Elam

12.04 Reggie Wayne

I'll add some comments later. Time for Game 2.

 

[valhallan]

Results so far:

Brady    35DELHOMME 32P.Manni  17ANDERSON 20T.Jones  14Portis   19Galloway 13JACKSON  29J.Smith   6Shockey   8Graham    5STEELERS 13Total   211	Grossman 10Palmer    2Simms    12BELL      1James    18F.Taylor  6Burress   0S.SMITH  78WARD     18Cooley   15J.BROWN   8Patriots	24Total   192	E.Mannin  1PLUMMER  10ROETHLIS 34ALEXANDE  0R.Johnso 14C.Willia  8Branch   28S.Moss   27Wayne    18MANGUM    9Scobee    3Bears     0Total   152Brunell  14HASSELBE 20Leftwich  8Barber    9Dillon   12FOSTER   22Harrison  8C.Johnso  9Muhammad  8H.MILLER 18Bryant    4BRONCOS  13Total   145

Still alive players are capitalized. I'm the first team. Team 2 needs another huge one out of Smith and some production from Ward. Team 3 could make a big move with at least 1 QB going to the Super Bowl and Alexander still sitting there. Team 4 looks to be almost dead.

 

[jeff_eaglz]

Results so far:

Brady 35DELHOMME 32P.Manni 17ANDERSON 20T.Jones 14Portis 19Galloway 13JACKSON 29J.Smith 6Shockey 8Graham 5STEELERS 13Total 211 Grossman 10Palmer 2Simms 12BELL 1James 18F.Taylor 6Burress 0S.SMITH 78WARD 18Cooley 15J.BROWN 8Patriots 24Total 192 E.Mannin 1PLUMMER 10ROETHLIS 34ALEXANDE 0R.Johnso 14C.Willia 8Branch 28S.Moss 27Wayne 18MANGUM 9Scobee 3Bears 0Total 152Brunell 14HASSELBE 20Leftwich 8Barber 9Dillon 12FOSTER 22Harrison 8C.Johnso 9Muhammad 8H.MILLER 18Bryant 4BRONCOS 13Total 145Still alive players are capitalized. I'm the first team. Team 2 needs another huge one out of Smith and some production from Ward. Team 3 could make a big move with at least 1 QB going to the Super Bowl and Alexander still sitting there. Team 4 looks to be almost dead.

Interesting to see how there is no FWP on any team.How did they dynamics of the draft play out? Did we help?

 

[bostonfred]

Manning's history suggests that he is fairly likely to play just one game, or maybe two

Manning's teams have a history of winning playoff games in which they are the higher seed.

Manning has appeared in one game, one game, one game, three games, and two games, in five playoff appearances. He was not only starter caliber, but a fantasy monster in the wins, but he has never had a "good" fantasy game in a playoff loss. Manning has also never been to a Superbowl, and while I can understand why some would debate it, I really don't see that changing this year. Which, with the first round bye, means he probably won't get you more than one start caliber game, and two playoff games overall.

Even if he makes it to a Superbowl, though, Manning will have at most three playoff games with which to accrue points due to the bye.

Personally, I steered clear of him in my postseason league because he will either play New England, Jacksonville, or Pittsburgh in his first game, and he generally has not fared well against them. Personlly, I like Brady and Hasselbeck best as playoff QBs this year.

Well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad.

 

[valhallan]

Results so far:

Brady 35DELHOMME 32P.Manni 17ANDERSON 20T.Jones 14Portis 19Galloway 13JACKSON 29J.Smith 6Shockey 8Graham 5STEELERS 13Total 211 Grossman 10Palmer 2Simms 12BELL 1James 18F.Taylor 6Burress 0S.SMITH 78WARD 18Cooley 15J.BROWN 8Patriots 24Total 192 E.Mannin 1PLUMMER 10ROETHLIS 34ALEXANDE 0R.Johnso 14C.Willia 8Branch 28S.Moss 27Wayne 18MANGUM 9Scobee 3Bears 0Total 152Brunell 14HASSELBE 20Leftwich 8Barber 9Dillon 12FOSTER 22Harrison 8C.Johnso 9Muhammad 8H.MILLER 18Bryant 4BRONCOS 13Total 145Still alive players are capitalized. I'm the first team. Team 2 needs another huge one out of Smith and some production from Ward. Team 3 could make a big move with at least 1 QB going to the Super Bowl and Alexander still sitting there. Team 4 looks to be almost dead.

Interesting to see how there is no FWP on any team.How did they dynamics of the draft play out? Did we help?

Yeah team 3 would have taken FWP over Bell but he already had Ward.Our discussion did help, and it pretty much went the way we thought it would - QBs gone early, receivers available late, team VBD, etc.

Here's a little example of our discussion paying dividends. I had taken Galloway early because of Tampa's team VBD, and in round 9 he was still the only guy in my receiving corps with Seattle, Cinci, Pitt, and Jax left open. Team 2 (picking after me) had S.Smith and Ward with New York, New England, Seattle, and Chicago left open. I was keeping my eye on DJax and knew only team 2 could take him since the other two had taken Hasselbeck and Alexander already. So it was finally time to take my Seahawk and he's currently 5th in scoring with at least one more game left

Holding out for a highly ranked, but low team VBD guy like DJax enabled me to snag lower ranked, but high team VBD guys like Delhomme, Portis, and T.Jones.