Calvin Johnson not the top WR this year (1 Viewer)

[Xue]

Just to be more productive than the rest of this thread, I think Dwayne Bowe would be the guy to finish number 1 this year, he has had a monster year before and he is playing for a big pay day. Cassell might not be the best, but he had a monster season with him as his quarterback before.

CJs ADP is 3-8...Bowe is 49-55 To get the #1 WR at that spot is a steal. Load up early and take the #1 WR in the 3rd or 4th.

Dwayne Bowe had a career year in 2010 because (it should have been widely known that) the Chiefs had an amazingly soft pass schedule. Cassel had one of his best years as well. Where Cassel goes, Bowe goes.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Ah. You might want to lurk here for a little bit and see how the real men do things.

Your whole premise isn't a very useful thread. Do you have a player you think beats him, or are you just bringing up the "never before seen, earth shattering, new and completely original idea" that "Not Calvin Johnson" is likely to finish WR1 overall?

It's like if you had a custom roulette wheel: 20% of the spots are green, 40% are red, 20% yellow, and 20% black. (Yes, I realize there is no yellow on an actual roulette wheel).

If you asked me "Do you think it will come up red, or another color?" I'd have to tell you no...because it is more likely than not that it comes up another color. If you asked "What color do you think it will come up as?" I would have to say red...because it's twice as likely as any other color.

If you were to ask "Is it possible that a color other than red will come up?" I'd have to say you're being asinine, because it's obviously possible...

So, you would like me to predict a specific player that I think will do better than Cal. Johnson to make this thread resemble the majority of the threads here? Fine I'll take Fitz, Welker and White to finish the year above Cal. Johnson (PPR).Your roulette analogy isn't comparable to fantasy football, at least not in this regard. Because finishing the year as the #1 WR or even #3 still maintains value. If an injury were to occur then yes its a win/lose scenario like your analogy would hold water.

How do you rank players after a dominate performance? Business as usual (He will continue his performance) or the law of averages (He will fall back down to Earth.)

If it's the latter is he worth the 4th, 5th, or 6th pick overall?

You're getting there. The guys who are actually worth listening to tend to actually contribute opinions and analysis here. A solid OP would have mentioned some of the things that Calvin had in his favor last year:
[*]WOW, Stafford threw the 3rd most pass attempts in NFL history...surely that number will prove to be an anomaly

[*]Calvin had a very high TD rate last year (over 16% of his receptions) while his career rate is about 13%. Because I think Stafford and the offense is better, I'll project him to improve a little on his career, but probably not as high as the 16% rate which he caught them at last year. As such, I see Calvin more along the line of 12 TDs this season.

[*]Calvin career ypr is 16, but in his two best seasons, he averaged over 17 yards per catch. I think his rookie year (littered with back issues) can be overlooked, and he also had injury troubles in 09. I'd guess his ypr is probably closer to 16.5 this year.

[*]Calvin has more receptions last year than any other season he has played by a WIDE margin - over 1 catch per game. His targets were also a little over 1 per game more than in previous seasons. These things both correlate strongly with the higher number of pass attempts that Detroit had, and probably return to earth a little this season. I'll predict about 80-85 receptions for Calvin (still more than any year other than last season by 0.5+ catches per game).

[*]Given those numbers (an incredibly superficial analysis as of now that could use deeper insight, like what % of targets Calvin was getting, whether or not that changed, etc...) I am going to say Calvin gets around 82/1353/12 - good for 289.3 points in your typical PPR league, and 207.3 in your typical standard league.

[*]Looking at historical data for the #1WR's numbers in any given season, the typical number of fantasy points has been about 315 in PPR and just over 200 points in nonPPR over the past five years.

[*]As such, I would say that, given my projections for Calvin (and other players, not included here for brevity's sake) I do not think he'll finish #1 in PPR, but I do believe he is likely to finish top 3 and possibly #1 in a nonPPR.

That would be ANALYSIS and actual thought processes that make posts useful. This:

I just see his numbers coming back down to Earth this year.

He is still 1st round talent, don't get me wrong, I just don't see him finishing the year as the #1 WR.

:discuss:

is really ####ty analysis. You can't even call it analysis. "I just see his numbers coming back down to Earth..." Seriously? Is this the kind of crap you guys populate FFT with? You may just want to stay over there...Also, you should read up on the law of averages (more commonly referred to as regression to the mean) and figure out that if Calvin is to "fall back" to averages, it is a phenomenon based on HIS averages - things like his personal TD/rec rate, YPR, Rec/game, etc...To think that he will fall back to typical averages of any given WR is an incredibly flawed thought process.

My roulette analogy is perfectly applicable to the question that YOU posed: Will Calvin finish #1? You didn't ask "Will Calvin likely have value that makes him worth a mid first rounder this year?" You asked if he would be the #1 WR, period. You have attempted to be very clear about that. To say that the real question is whether or not he will still have value as the #3 WR is to move the goalposts from the question YOU posed.

This sentence here:

If an injury were to occur then yes its a win/lose scenario like your analogy would hold water.

makes no sense. Try again. In solid English please. Unless that's not how they do things on other boards. And you meant to say "dominant" where you said "dominate". Just a heads up.

If you want to continue with the question of years following dominant performances, or whether or not Calvin as merely a top 5 WR is still worth a first round pick, that's a great discussion to have. But let's not pretend that it is the discussion you opened with the OP or your posts prior to just this last one.

Just curious, but why choose this thread to jump all over the OP for posting an idea or quick blurb for further discussion? In reality, that's what the majority of the threads here are (and is the entire concept behind the staff endorsed player spotlights among others).In point of fact, in a quick skim over the entire first page of the shark pool I didn't find a single thread where the analysis was actually in the original post. While those types of post are surely the most helpful, they're pretty rare so it seems odd to jump on this one for doing something that 95% of the posts do similarly.

 

[Instinctive]

Ah. You might want to lurk here for a little bit and see how the real men do things.

Your whole premise isn't a very useful thread. Do you have a player you think beats him, or are you just bringing up the "never before seen, earth shattering, new and completely original idea" that "Not Calvin Johnson" is likely to finish WR1 overall?

It's like if you had a custom roulette wheel: 20% of the spots are green, 40% are red, 20% yellow, and 20% black. (Yes, I realize there is no yellow on an actual roulette wheel).

If you asked me "Do you think it will come up red, or another color?" I'd have to tell you no...because it is more likely than not that it comes up another color. If you asked "What color do you think it will come up as?" I would have to say red...because it's twice as likely as any other color.

If you were to ask "Is it possible that a color other than red will come up?" I'd have to say you're being asinine, because it's obviously possible...

So, you would like me to predict a specific player that I think will do better than Cal. Johnson to make this thread resemble the majority of the threads here? Fine I'll take Fitz, Welker and White to finish the year above Cal. Johnson (PPR).Your roulette analogy isn't comparable to fantasy football, at least not in this regard. Because finishing the year as the #1 WR or even #3 still maintains value. If an injury were to occur then yes its a win/lose scenario like your analogy would hold water.

How do you rank players after a dominate performance? Business as usual (He will continue his performance) or the law of averages (He will fall back down to Earth.)

If it's the latter is he worth the 4th, 5th, or 6th pick overall?

You're getting there. The guys who are actually worth listening to tend to actually contribute opinions and analysis here. A solid OP would have mentioned some of the things that Calvin had in his favor last year:
[*]WOW, Stafford threw the 3rd most pass attempts in NFL history...surely that number will prove to be an anomaly

[*]Calvin had a very high TD rate last year (over 16% of his receptions) while his career rate is about 13%. Because I think Stafford and the offense is better, I'll project him to improve a little on his career, but probably not as high as the 16% rate which he caught them at last year. As such, I see Calvin more along the line of 12 TDs this season.

[*]Calvin career ypr is 16, but in his two best seasons, he averaged over 17 yards per catch. I think his rookie year (littered with back issues) can be overlooked, and he also had injury troubles in 09. I'd guess his ypr is probably closer to 16.5 this year.

[*]Calvin has more receptions last year than any other season he has played by a WIDE margin - over 1 catch per game. His targets were also a little over 1 per game more than in previous seasons. These things both correlate strongly with the higher number of pass attempts that Detroit had, and probably return to earth a little this season. I'll predict about 80-85 receptions for Calvin (still more than any year other than last season by 0.5+ catches per game).

[*]Given those numbers (an incredibly superficial analysis as of now that could use deeper insight, like what % of targets Calvin was getting, whether or not that changed, etc...) I am going to say Calvin gets around 82/1353/12 - good for 289.3 points in your typical PPR league, and 207.3 in your typical standard league.

[*]Looking at historical data for the #1WR's numbers in any given season, the typical number of fantasy points has been about 315 in PPR and just over 200 points in nonPPR over the past five years.

[*]As such, I would say that, given my projections for Calvin (and other players, not included here for brevity's sake) I do not think he'll finish #1 in PPR, but I do believe he is likely to finish top 3 and possibly #1 in a nonPPR.

That would be ANALYSIS and actual thought processes that make posts useful. This:

I just see his numbers coming back down to Earth this year.

He is still 1st round talent, don't get me wrong, I just don't see him finishing the year as the #1 WR.

:discuss:

is really ####ty analysis. You can't even call it analysis. "I just see his numbers coming back down to Earth..." Seriously? Is this the kind of crap you guys populate FFT with? You may just want to stay over there...Also, you should read up on the law of averages (more commonly referred to as regression to the mean) and figure out that if Calvin is to "fall back" to averages, it is a phenomenon based on HIS averages - things like his personal TD/rec rate, YPR, Rec/game, etc...To think that he will fall back to typical averages of any given WR is an incredibly flawed thought process.

My roulette analogy is perfectly applicable to the question that YOU posed: Will Calvin finish #1? You didn't ask "Will Calvin likely have value that makes him worth a mid first rounder this year?" You asked if he would be the #1 WR, period. You have attempted to be very clear about that. To say that the real question is whether or not he will still have value as the #3 WR is to move the goalposts from the question YOU posed.

This sentence here:

If an injury were to occur then yes its a win/lose scenario like your analogy would hold water.

makes no sense. Try again. In solid English please. Unless that's not how they do things on other boards. And you meant to say "dominant" where you said "dominate". Just a heads up.

If you want to continue with the question of years following dominant performances, or whether or not Calvin as merely a top 5 WR is still worth a first round pick, that's a great discussion to have. But let's not pretend that it is the discussion you opened with the OP or your posts prior to just this last one.

Just curious, but why choose this thread to jump all over the OP for posting an idea or quick blurb for further discussion? In reality, that's what the majority of the threads here are (and is the entire concept behind the staff endorsed player spotlights among others).In point of fact, in a quick skim over the entire first page of the shark pool I didn't find a single thread where the analysis was actually in the original post. While those types of post are surely the most helpful, they're pretty rare so it seems odd to jump on this one for doing something that 95% of the posts do similarly.

1. Because it gets annoying after a while.2. Because he's new to the SP so perhaps it would actually have an impact.

3. I think I may start doing it more often.

I really just don;t get why people start threads with such useless OPs. We need a mod to clean that junk out. Too much crap in here where people just throw #### on the wall and hope it sticks.

ETA: It's not the concept behind the spotlights at all. The spotlights encourage detailed analysis and ask for projections. They are very specific about what they want, and they lead to actual site content that's very useful. Apples to oranges.

 

[Manster]

Megatron is prolly the most physically gifted WR in the league who really came into his own last season. He's on a throw first offense that scores a lot. Stafford is a stud QB who consistently finds Cal. Stafford to Megatron is pretty much unstoppable. Teams tried, and failed last season. So, you've got to ask yourself, who has a better chance to score more FF points at WR?

Fitz? Elite talent, mediocre offense and QB.

Welker? ppr machine on a great offense. But, Brady will spread the ball around. Lots of mouths to feed there. More risk here than with Megatron.

AJ? injuries

White/Julio? Julio will likely take some from White. Both studs, but two of em.......

Dont overthink it. Or go with your gut. But, Calvin is set to dominate again.

 

[Sweet Love]

If I had to pick between Calvin Johnson or The Field, I'd take The Field.If I had to pick one particular person to finish #1, I'd pick Calvin Johnson.

Exactly...if you are picking the top player at ANY position, you should not go in thinking "he will be the best...just done", you are basically playing the odds. Calvin may have a 50% chance of finishing as WR1, Fitz may have a 25% chance and so on. You are mitigating risk in a sense. Having played for a lot of years, I am now starting to pay a lot of attention to a player's "floor". We have seen calvin with a crappy QB, and he is better than Fitz with a crappy QB (not by much, but you get where I am going). On the flipside, I see more risk (injury and if QB goes down) to guys like AJ and Nicks, and THAT is why I like Calvin so much. When I take a player in the 1st round, I rarely expect him to justify that ADP in a sense where he will be player #3 after I took him at #3...I just hope that he doesn't fall too far, and the mid-round guys crush their ADP and give me a good, solid team.

 

[Bishop]

You're getting there. The guys who are actually worth listening to tend to actually contribute opinions and analysis here. A solid OP would have mentioned some of the things that Calvin had in his favor last year:

[*]WOW, Stafford threw the 3rd most pass attempts in NFL history...surely that number will prove to be an anomaly

[*]Calvin had a very high TD rate last year (over 16% of his receptions) while his career rate is about 13%. Because I think Stafford and the offense is better, I'll project him to improve a little on his career, but probably not as high as the 16% rate which he caught them at last year. As such, I see Calvin more along the line of 12 TDs this season.

[*]Calvin career ypr is 16, but in his two best seasons, he averaged over 17 yards per catch. I think his rookie year (littered with back issues) can be overlooked, and he also had injury troubles in 09. I'd guess his ypr is probably closer to 16.5 this year.

[*]Calvin has more receptions last year than any other season he has played by a WIDE margin - over 1 catch per game. His targets were also a little over 1 per game more than in previous seasons. These things both correlate strongly with the higher number of pass attempts that Detroit had, and probably return to earth a little this season. I'll predict about 80-85 receptions for Calvin (still more than any year other than last season by 0.5+ catches per game).

[*]Given those numbers (an incredibly superficial analysis as of now that could use deeper insight, like what % of targets Calvin was getting, whether or not that changed, etc...) I am going to say Calvin gets around 82/1353/12 - good for 289.3 points in your typical PPR league, and 207.3 in your typical standard league.

[*]Looking at historical data for the #1WR's numbers in any given season, the typical number of fantasy points has been about 315 in PPR and just over 200 points in nonPPR over the past five years.

[*]As such, I would say that, given my projections for Calvin (and other players, not included here for brevity's sake) I do not think he'll finish #1 in PPR, but I do believe he is likely to finish top 3 and possibly #1 in a nonPPR.

That would be ANALYSIS and actual thought processes that make posts useful. This:

I just see his numbers coming back down to Earth this year.

He is still 1st round talent, don't get me wrong, I just don't see him finishing the year as the #1 WR.

:discuss:

is really ####ty analysis. You can't even call it analysis. "I just see his numbers coming back down to Earth..." Seriously? Is this the kind of crap you guys populate FFT with? You may just want to stay over there...Also, you should read up on the law of averages (more commonly referred to as regression to the mean) and figure out that if Calvin is to "fall back" to averages, it is a phenomenon based on HIS averages - things like his personal TD/rec rate, YPR, Rec/game, etc...To think that he will fall back to typical averages of any given WR is an incredibly flawed thought process.

Thank you Matthew Berry for your spot on "analysis" of Calvin Johnson's career averages and how they project this year. To be perfectly honest I was unaware that these place was chalk full of the greatest fantasy football minds in history. You seem to have solved the fantasy football riddle, you've figured out the code and it's all in the numbers (even though the "Earth-shattering" revelation of the prior season having little to do with the upcoming season.)According to your line of reasoning Calvin Johnson would never have had the year he had last year, because his career averages didn't project that. All I'm getting at is this, and I'll say it verrry slowly.

Calvin Johnson is a great WR, one of the best in the NFL, if he doesn't repeat his number from last season (which would be very difficult to do) his numbers would would drop. See where I'm going with this? So, his number drop from last season, never said anything about how far because NO ONE knows, except number crunchers obviously.

Back on topic: Cal. Johnson 2012 < Cal. Johnson 2011

Since we don't know how far the fall would be, it is safe to assume that taking him #5 overall would be a stretch, I think so, others disagree which is fine. Another WR or maybe two could surpass him, maybe they have a 2011 Cal. Johnson type season, or maybe have a 2010 Roddy White/Brandon Lloyd season or just maybe someone could have a 2009 Brandon Marshall type season. Who that is only the fantasy experts would know.

So why take Calvin Johnson #5 overall hoping he duplicates his numbers from last season, when it's probably safer to draft a 2nd or 3rd tier WR later.

Hook 'em Horns

 

[Kleck]

This is like picking a golfer in a major. The field is always a better play than an individual athlete. However, if I had to pick a favorite, it is going to be Calvin.

Was thinking the same thing. Calvin would be my individual choice, but I'd bet the field if I could

 

[jurb26]

Back on topic: Cal. Johnson 2012 < Cal. Johnson 2011

OK, why do you think this? I know you just went round and round with Instinctive a little bit but I'm still not sure I can figure out how you come to this conclusion. What has changed in Det that makes you think Calvin is so sure to regress? Is it just that he had a monster season so he must? That seems to be you're outlook. While that in it's self isn't a terribly bad way of looking at it, I'm personally unable to find reasons to downgrade Calvin. The only things I see as potentially holding him back are injuries, to either himself or to Stafford. You do realize that Calivin had a huge dip in production for a 4 game span in which Stafford nursesd a hand injury, right? So, for theoretically he really didn't mazimize his potential last year. If Stafford makes it through 2012 with no health blemishes what so ever do you not see Calvin as potentially surpassing his 2011 totals?Det's offense is basically no different from last years team. It's perhpas better. They drafted a top Olineman to help protect Stafford and they added an injuried WR who will eventually replace Burelson and play the slot, but not really have an impact this year. The D would best be described as marginally better IMO so shoot outs are still likely.

 

[dgreen]

Back on topic: Cal. Johnson 2012 < Cal. Johnson 2011

His stats decreasing doesn't necessarily mean his position ranking will decrease.

 

[Instinctive]

You're getting there. The guys who are actually worth listening to tend to actually contribute opinions and analysis here. A solid OP would have mentioned some of the things that Calvin had in his favor last year:

[*]WOW, Stafford threw the 3rd most pass attempts in NFL history...surely that number will prove to be an anomaly

[*]Calvin had a very high TD rate last year (over 16% of his receptions) while his career rate is about 13%. Because I think Stafford and the offense is better, I'll project him to improve a little on his career, but probably not as high as the 16% rate which he caught them at last year. As such, I see Calvin more along the line of 12 TDs this season.

[*]Calvin career ypr is 16, but in his two best seasons, he averaged over 17 yards per catch. I think his rookie year (littered with back issues) can be overlooked, and he also had injury troubles in 09. I'd guess his ypr is probably closer to 16.5 this year.

[*]Calvin has more receptions last year than any other season he has played by a WIDE margin - over 1 catch per game. His targets were also a little over 1 per game more than in previous seasons. These things both correlate strongly with the higher number of pass attempts that Detroit had, and probably return to earth a little this season. I'll predict about 80-85 receptions for Calvin (still more than any year other than last season by 0.5+ catches per game).

[*]Given those numbers (an incredibly superficial analysis as of now that could use deeper insight, like what % of targets Calvin was getting, whether or not that changed, etc...) I am going to say Calvin gets around 82/1353/12 - good for 289.3 points in your typical PPR league, and 207.3 in your typical standard league.

[*]Looking at historical data for the #1WR's numbers in any given season, the typical number of fantasy points has been about 315 in PPR and just over 200 points in nonPPR over the past five years.

[*]As such, I would say that, given my projections for Calvin (and other players, not included here for brevity's sake) I do not think he'll finish #1 in PPR, but I do believe he is likely to finish top 3 and possibly #1 in a nonPPR.

That would be ANALYSIS and actual thought processes that make posts useful. This:

I just see his numbers coming back down to Earth this year.

He is still 1st round talent, don't get me wrong, I just don't see him finishing the year as the #1 WR.

:discuss:

is really ####ty analysis. You can't even call it analysis. "I just see his numbers coming back down to Earth..." Seriously? Is this the kind of crap you guys populate FFT with? You may just want to stay over there...Also, you should read up on the law of averages (more commonly referred to as regression to the mean) and figure out that if Calvin is to "fall back" to averages, it is a phenomenon based on HIS averages - things like his personal TD/rec rate, YPR, Rec/game, etc...To think that he will fall back to typical averages of any given WR is an incredibly flawed thought process.

Thank you Matthew Berry for your spot on "analysis" of Calvin Johnson's career averages and how they project this year. To be perfectly honest I was unaware that these place was chalk full of the greatest fantasy football minds in history. You seem to have solved the fantasy football riddle, you've figured out the code and it's all in the numbers (even though the "Earth-shattering" revelation of the prior season having little to do with the upcoming season.)According to your line of reasoning Calvin Johnson would never have had the year he had last year, because his career averages didn't project that. All I'm getting at is this, and I'll say it verrry slowly.

Calvin Johnson is a great WR, one of the best in the NFL, if he doesn't repeat his number from last season (which would be very difficult to do) his numbers would would drop. See where I'm going with this? So, his number drop from last season, never said anything about how far because NO ONE knows, except number crunchers obviously.

Back on topic: Cal. Johnson 2012 < Cal. Johnson 2011

Since we don't know how far the fall would be, it is safe to assume that taking him #5 overall would be a stretch, I think so, others disagree which is fine. Another WR or maybe two could surpass him, maybe they have a 2011 Cal. Johnson type season, or maybe have a 2010 Roddy White/Brandon Lloyd season or just maybe someone could have a 2009 Brandon Marshall type season. Who that is only the fantasy experts would know.

So why take Calvin Johnson #5 overall hoping he duplicates his numbers from last season, when it's probably safer to draft a 2nd or 3rd tier WR later.

Hook 'em Horns

You may have been distracted when you read some actual analysis and skimmed over another part, but: Even assuming Calvin's numbers fall FAR from last year's and realign more with his typical production rates:Calvin gets around 82/1353/12 - good for 289.3 points in your typical PPR league, and 207.3 in your typical standard league. (Just wanted to point out here that this is a full 1/20/.25 less per game production, a significant amount)

[*]Looking at historical data for the #1WR's numbers in any given season, the typical number of fantasy points has been about 315 in PPR and just over 200 points in nonPPR over the past five years.

[*]As such, I would say that, given my projections for Calvin (and other players, not included here for brevity's sake) I do not think he'll finish #1 in PPR, but I do believe he is likely to finish top 3 and possibly #1 in a nonPPR.

But you're right. You should probably stick with the incredibly useful "I think his numbers will fall, but I don't know how far or why. I just think they will." That's much more useful.

According to your line of reasoning Calvin Johnson would never have had the year he had last year, because his career averages didn't project that

Actually, this isn't entirely true. In statistics, you have something called an outlier. What that means is that a given point or set of data lies outside the typical averages. The NFL season is, in and of itself, a small sample size - it's conducive to the creation of outliers. That's why you look at things like rate stats over a career - you can try to find what portions of the circumstances that allowed Calvin's monster you to happen are likely to be repeated.If you read above (This might help) closely, you'd notice I mentioned the high number of passing attempts that Detroit had last year (unusually high - 3rd most in NFL history!) and might think that type of thing would be unlikely to repeat. You could then look at Calvin's career rate stats, like recs/TD, yards/rec, rec/game, rec%, targets/game...and look at their context (Stafford out, backup QB, third string QBs...) to see if they had factors other than "The talent of Calvin Johnson" influencing them.

My line of reasoning actually predicted a season relatively close to what Calvin did last year (when I did this type of analysis last year, and in each year) - I was off by about 1 catch per game, 25 yards per game (a function of his higher ypr plus the extra catch) and three or four TDs - a function of his hot streak to start the year. TDs are inherently volatile and generally don't hold a lot of predictive value from year to year (Steve Smith's career is a GREAT example of this), so I'm ok with that.

As such, it is perfectly reasonable that Calvin's hot streak of TDs, Detroit's unusually high number of pass attempts, and the improvement that Stafford is over the backup QBs Calvin previously played with would all combine to result in the season he had last year.

The factor likely to repeat this year is Stafford's ability (which might mean Calvin's higher ypr is a sustainable rate) - you can't count on a hot streak of TDs again, and it's highly unlikely that Detroit throws the ball at a top-five-in-NFL-history rate again.

But, I suppose "I just think he'll come down some, but I don't know how much, just maybe some, so he maybe perhaps might not be worth a 1st round pick but I'm not actually sure" is decent analysis.

Of course, that also fails to take into account the high floor which Calvin likely has and the risk that he busts vs the risk of thsoe at ADPs around him, like DMC, Brady, Brees, MJD, Mathews (Brady and Brees could come back down to earth as well -THAT'S more like it for you, right? Solid analysis, just tryign to speak down at your level -while DMC has never had more than 240 touches, MJD is holding out...)

So the safety of Calvin to produce at a top 5 level (He has finished top 6 in 3 of the past 4 years according to FBG historical stats) is also worth something as a first round pick.

Then again, his numbers will come back down, but we don't know how far, but they'll probably come down some and so he maybe might not potentially be worth a sort of high pick perhaps.



Edit: had a spelling error. I am SO not a good typist.

 

[Instinctive]

Back on topic: Cal. Johnson 2012 < Cal. Johnson 2011

OK, why do you think this? I know you just went round and round with Instinctive a little bit but I'm still not sure I can figure out how you come to this conclusion. What has changed in Det that makes you think Calvin is so sure to regress? Is it just that he had a monster season so he must? That seems to be you're outlook.

While that in it's self isn't a terribly bad way of looking at it, I'm personally unable to find reasons to downgrade Calvin. The only things I see as potentially holding him back are injuries, to either himself or to Stafford.

You do realize that Calivin had a huge dip in production for a 4 game span in which Stafford nursesd a hand injury, right? So, for theoretically he really didn't mazimize his potential last year. If Stafford makes it through 2012 with no health blemishes what so ever do you not see Calvin as potentially surpassing his 2011 totals?

Det's offense is basically no different from last years team. It's perhpas better. They drafted a top Olineman to help protect Stafford and they added an injuried WR who will eventually replace Burelson and play the slot, but not really have an impact this year. The D would best be described as marginally better IMO so shoot outs are still likely.

That's because he hasn't mentioned anything. He has no reasons. Nothing. Just "I think he'll come down some." That's it. Good catch.

 

[Instinctive]

Back on topic: Cal. Johnson 2012 < Cal. Johnson 2011

His stats decreasing doesn't necessarily mean his position ranking will decrease.

That's kind of a nuanced argument. Let's stay within the bounds of the level of discussion we have set here.( )

 

[Bishop]

Back on topic: Cal. Johnson 2012 < Cal. Johnson 2011

OK, why do you think this? I know you just went round and round with Instinctive a little bit but I'm still not sure I can figure out how you come to this conclusion. What has changed in Det that makes you think Calvin is so sure to regress? Is it just that he had a monster season so he must? That seems to be you're outlook.

While that in it's self isn't a terribly bad way of looking at it, I'm personally unable to find reasons to downgrade Calvin. The only things I see as potentially holding him back are injuries, to either himself or to Stafford.

You do realize that Calivin had a huge dip in production for a 4 game span in which Stafford nursesd a hand injury, right? So, for theoretically he really didn't mazimize his potential last year. If Stafford makes it through 2012 with no health blemishes what so ever do you not see Calvin as potentially surpassing his 2011 totals?

Det's offense is basically no different from last years team. It's perhpas better. They drafted a top Olineman to help protect Stafford and they added an injuried WR who will eventually replace Burelson and play the slot, but not really have an impact this year. The D would best be described as marginally better IMO so shoot outs are still likely.

It's pretty safe to say that Detroit burst onto the scene last year, they caught a lot of teams off guard. They aren't your daddy Lions anymore, so teams are going to play them differently. Johnson always draws double coverage, now teams might start triple covering him because they don't fear Burleson/Young or even the run game for that matter, a one trick pony if you will. Please excuse this over used phrase, but it really is a copycat league. Sure he had a couple of down games last year (most notably week 14 vs MIN) teams study film a lot and will adjust accordingly. It might slow him down, it might not. The word "downgrade" that you used is kind of misleading, because it's relative to where you believe he should be rated. A lot of people have him as the #5 overall pick and I don't feel that rating is correct doesn't mean I downgrade him. I just think "their" expectations are a bit too high.

 

[Bishop]

Back on topic: Cal. Johnson 2012 < Cal. Johnson 2011

His stats decreasing doesn't necessarily mean his position ranking will decrease.

Of course, but should I draft him mid 1st round because his position rank says I should? I'm not saying he is undraftable, but his expectations are through the roof.

 

[dgreen]

Back on topic: Cal. Johnson 2012 < Cal. Johnson 2011

His stats decreasing doesn't necessarily mean his position ranking will decrease.

Of course, but should I draft him mid 1st round because his position rank says I should? I'm not saying he is undraftable, but his expectations are through the roof.

Well, that obviously depends on projections of other players, too. Deciding when to draft Calvin Johnson isn't just a question about Calvin Johnson.I'll admit, I'm not familiar with many projections right now, so I can't comment on those.

 

[Bishop]

You may have been distracted when you read some actual analysis and skimmed over another part, but: Even assuming Calvin's numbers fall FAR from last year's and realign more with his typical production rates:

Calvin gets around 82/1353/12 - good for 289.3 points in your typical PPR league, and 207.3 in your typical standard league. (Just wanted to point out here that this is a full 1/20/.25 less per game production, a significant amount)

[*]Looking at historical data for the #1WR's numbers in any given season, the typical number of fantasy points has been about 315 in PPR and just over 200 points in nonPPR over the past five years.

[*]As such, I would say that, given my projections for Calvin (and other players, not included here for brevity's sake) I do not think he'll finish #1 in PPR, but I do believe he is likely to finish top 3 and possibly #1 in a nonPPR.

Are you saying that we actually agree So, because I didn't break down the numbers as you did (very eloquently I might add) that's what this is all about.

I refuse to believe in projections on fantasy football, because it can't be quantified.

Link

Your ideas are something that I agree with. A lot of them. But you've got the wrong players. I think McCoy's overvalued. I think Hillis is undervalued as well, but I don;t think he's so undervalued that I'm going to take him in the 2nd. I'm more risk averse than that, and while I think he could be just as good again...I'm not THAT confident in that thought.

How'd Hillis work out for you last year? And I couldn't help but noticed your lack of statistical data on Hillis' value/ projections, more of "I think" there.

 

[Instinctive]

You may have been distracted when you read some actual analysis and skimmed over another part, but: Even assuming Calvin's numbers fall FAR from last year's and realign more with his typical production rates:

Calvin gets around 82/1353/12 - good for 289.3 points in your typical PPR league, and 207.3 in your typical standard league. (Just wanted to point out here that this is a full 1/20/.25 less per game production, a significant amount)

[*]Looking at historical data for the #1WR's numbers in any given season, the typical number of fantasy points has been about 315 in PPR and just over 200 points in nonPPR over the past five years.

[*]As such, I would say that, given my projections for Calvin (and other players, not included here for brevity's sake) I do not think he'll finish #1 in PPR, but I do believe he is likely to finish top 3 and possibly #1 in a nonPPR.

Are you saying that we actually agree So, because I didn't break down the numbers as you did (very eloquently I might add) that's what this is all about.

I refuse to believe in projections on fantasy football, because it can't be quantified.

Link

Your ideas are something that I agree with. A lot of them. But you've got the wrong players. I think McCoy's overvalued. I think Hillis is undervalued as well, but I don;t think he's so undervalued that I'm going to take him in the 2nd. I'm more risk averse than that, and while I think he could be just as good again...I'm not THAT confident in that thought.

How'd Hillis work out for you last year? And I couldn't help but noticed your lack of statistical data on Hillis' value/ projections, more of "I think" there.

1. We agree in that I also believe his numbers will come down. It's just obnoxious to me to see asinine reasoning like "I just see it happening." Figured since you were new here, maybe I could catch it early and turn you into one of the productive posters. I think we way disagree on the value of drafting him in the mid first round. And in nonPPR - if you read closely - I do have him as a probable WR1.2. Out of context quote. But we'll play your game - my projections for Hillis came in to a point where I valued him below where the market did. I'm not sure what you're trying to prove with that of all quotes (because I've made some terrible calls over the years, not all of them turn out like this or this ), but Hillis worked out great for me - I passed on him specifically because of the portions of the quote that you chose not to bold (holy cherry picking, Batman!) - you know this part:

but I don;t think he's so undervalued that I'm going to take him in the 2nd. I'm more risk averse than that.

and then the second bolded portion...when I say directly afterwards that I am not confident in that thought.I guess I'm just wondering why you chose to use a quote of me making a solid, correct call to pick on. I'm not sure if my analysis is on here anywhere, but what I had on Hillis last year was a high volume I felt unlikely to be repeated, an efficiency I felt unlikely to be repeated, and an offense that was lucky more often than usual and would likely regress some, especially given a tougher expected schedule.

ETA: Man - if you click the link you give, it takes you to page three of a thread. In that first post on page 3, is EXACTLY the type of post we need more of in the Shark Pool. That guy knows his stuff. Great link, great example.

Also - I really should commend you on taking the time to dig up an out of context quote from over a year ago to point out something I said that turned out to be correct. Thank you for saving me the time...as if it has any impact on the validity of the current discussion (it doesn't.) But thanks. That's WAY more time than I would spend in a half-assed attempt to make another poster look bad. Then again, I'd probably manage to succeed in doing so, at least, if I tried to. (For instance, I'd have pointed out what a massive whiff I made on McCoy. But thats just me.)

 

[Bishop]

You may have been distracted when you read some actual analysis and skimmed over another part, but: Even assuming Calvin's numbers fall FAR from last year's and realign more with his typical production rates:

Calvin gets around 82/1353/12 - good for 289.3 points in your typical PPR league, and 207.3 in your typical standard league. (Just wanted to point out here that this is a full 1/20/.25 less per game production, a significant amount)

[*]Looking at historical data for the #1WR's numbers in any given season, the typical number of fantasy points has been about 315 in PPR and just over 200 points in nonPPR over the past five years.

[*]As such, I would say that, given my projections for Calvin (and other players, not included here for brevity's sake) I do not think he'll finish #1 in PPR, but I do believe he is likely to finish top 3 and possibly #1 in a nonPPR.

Are you saying that we actually agree So, because I didn't break down the numbers as you did (very eloquently I might add) that's what this is all about.

I refuse to believe in projections on fantasy football, because it can't be quantified.

Link

Your ideas are something that I agree with. A lot of them. But you've got the wrong players. I think McCoy's overvalued. I think Hillis is undervalued as well, but I don;t think he's so undervalued that I'm going to take him in the 2nd. I'm more risk averse than that, and while I think he could be just as good again...I'm not THAT confident in that thought.

How'd Hillis work out for you last year? And I couldn't help but noticed your lack of statistical data on Hillis' value/ projections, more of "I think" there.

1. We agree in that I also believe his numbers will come down. It's just obnoxious to me to see asinine reasoning like "I just see it happening." Figured since you were new here, maybe I could catch it early and turn you into one of the productive posters. I think we way disagree on the value of drafting him in the mid first round. And in nonPPR - if you read closely - I do have him as a probable WR1.2. Out of context quote. But we'll play your game - my projections for Hillis came in to a point where I valued him below where the market did. I'm not sure what you're trying to prove with that of all quotes (because I've made some terrible calls over the years, not all of them turn out like this or this ), but Hillis worked out great for me - I passed on him specifically because of the portions of the quote that you chose not to bold (holy cherry picking, Batman!) - you know this part:

but I don;t think he's so undervalued that I'm going to take him in the 2nd. I'm more risk averse than that.

and then the second bolded portion...when I say directly afterwards that I am not confident in that thought.I guess I'm just wondering why you chose to use a quote of me making a solid, correct call to pick on. I'm not sure if my analysis is on here anywhere, but what I had on Hillis last year was a high volume I felt unlikely to be repeated, an efficiency I felt unlikely to be repeated, and an offense that was lucky more often than usual and would likely regress some, especially given a tougher expected schedule.

It actually wasn't that hard, just typed in your name and Hillis, because I'm sure you would have brought some brillant statistical analysis on him and that's where the link took me. It's more to the point that you had a feeling or that you think something would happen. Which is OK for you but apparently not for others.

 

[Instinctive]

It actually wasn't that hard, just typed in your name and Hillis, because I'm sure you would have brought some brillant statistical analysis on him and that's where the link took me. It's more to the point that you had a feeling or that you think something would happen. Which is OK for you but apparently not for others.

Again - context matters. A throwaway post in response to somebody else is different from taking up page one space with a new thread and a really ####ty OP.

Did you look at the first post on the page you link to? That's the stuff we need. I wish I could post like that user.

 

[Bishop]

It actually wasn't that hard, just typed in your name and Hillis, because I'm sure you would have brought some brillant statistical analysis on him and that's where the link took me. It's more to the point that you had a feeling or that you think something would happen. Which is OK for you but apparently not for others.

Again - context matters. A throwaway post in response to somebody else is different from taking up page one space with a new thread and a really ####ty OP.

Did you look at the first post on the page you link to? That's the stuff we need. I wish I could post like that user.

I gotcha now, throwaway posts are OK. But not threads.Edit: Better?

 

[Instinctive]

It actually wasn't that hard, just typed in your name and Hillis, because I'm sure you would have brought some brillant statistical analysis on him and that's where the link took me. It's more to the point that you had a feeling or that you think something would happen. Which is OK for you but apparently not for others.

Again - context matters. A throwaway post in response to somebody else is different from taking up page one space with a new thread and a really ####ty OP.

Did you look at the first post on the page you link to? That's the stuff we need. I wish I could post like that user.

I gotcha now, throwaway posts are OK. But not threads.

Closer. Of course, it should be recognized that you didn't quote the entirety of the post - I looked for the post you quoted and realized it wasn't actually a post - you took less than a paragraph from a post (good grief, that's more cherry picked than I expected at first!). Allow me:

The thing is, if you look at the situations surrounding Andre's career, he's performed better than those stats would indicate. Andre has his last season (86 for 1200+ yards) in 13 games...and two of those games he left early due to injury. That put shim on pace for...want to guess? Over 100 catches and over 1500 yards. If a guy can play through injury and have a "bad" season, and miss 3 games, and leave 2 more in the first or second quarter...and still have over 80 catches for over 1200 yards...the guy's a stud.

The previous season? 100+ catches for 1500+ yards.

The season before? 100+ catches (115 actually) for 1500+ yards.

The season before? Which you are putting in his career average? Broke his leg in the 9th game of the year. Would you like to guess what his pace was? Yeah. 100+ catches and 1500+ yards.

And in each of those seasons, he had 8, 9, 8, and 8 TDs. You know what his pace was when you account for the missed games? (3 last year, 7 in 2007). His per game TD pace projects to an average of...10 TDs per season. Which would be double digits, last time I checked. And the difference between your WR1 having 8 and 10 TDs...not gonna be that much. His average (not accounting for any games missed, purely aggregate TDs/seasons) the past four years (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010) is 8/year. That's definitely respectable...

Now, you're correct on one point. He hasn't always had those type of stats. In fact, let's look at his pre-2007 per game pace stats: Each year's per game pace average together gives him 5 catches/game, and 65 yards per game, a pedestrian 80 catch 1000+ yard season. And his TD pace is only 5 per season. In summary, he was a decent WR2 to have in PPR, but not the greatest by any means.

Now, that's counting his rookie season. Typically a poor season for the WR position, which has a high learning curve. But we won't even make that a factor.

What happened between 2006 and 2007 that gives Andre Johnson two very different 4-year career splits?

Care to hazard a guess? Stumped? Oh yeah...the Texans actually got a QB who didn't suck (Matt Schaub) and went .500 for the first time ever. Oh yeah...they hired an offensive minded Head Coach who wan't an idiot. Oh yeah.......need I go on?

Look:

Your ideas are something that I agree with. A lot of them. But you've got the wrong players. I think McCoy's overvalued. I think Hillis is undervalued as well, but I don;t think he's so undervalued that I'm going to take him in the 2nd. I'm more risk averse than that, and while I think he could be just as good again...I'm not THAT confident in that thought.

I won't go into any detail on Rice, but suffice it to say that a back who has started two seasons, and gone over 1800 yards both seasons, on an offense that is still on the rise - is a guy I would love to get at 6 or so. Yardage is consistent. TDs are not.

Look, I agree with your concept. That's how I was able to ride Matt Schaub in 2008-2009 when everybody said he was "made of glass" or "injury prone". But when you looked at his missed games...in 2008 every single one was a result of a penalized late hit that was later fined (4 games) and one where he had the flu. The consensus was that he couldn't finish a full season when the reality was...he'd been unlucky.

Thats the same thing you see with Johnson. It says you joined in 07, so let's think back to then on the opinions about Johnson: they included things like "ok receiver," "good but not great," "all his value comes from targets..."

And yet he started a 4 year run of dominance rarely seen in the NFL. Some of us who follow your same thoughts have been able to benefit from that for 4 years now.

Because you have to look at the individual situations. And drater makes a good point on Bowe - I think he's got a ton of physical talent, and he seems to have his head on straight. But I'm not going to blow a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him because he also comes with a hefty amount of risk. I think he'll be a nice WR2. I'm not going to pay a WR1 price for him. I'm the opposite of you. You think he's undervalued...I think he's OVERvalued.

But the concept you put forth is correct. A little abrasive. And the poster boys for your concept are both AWFUL examples, But the concept is correct, and one I totally agree with. The difference is that you assume I like a guy like Andre Johnson because "that's the consensus," when the reality is that I liked him when the consensus was to be down on him. And he has yet to show me anything to indicate that I was wrong. In fact, he's been even better than I thought he would be. He's still in his prime. He still has a good/great QB in a strong offense. Regardless of what anyone else thinks...I think that a healthy Andre in Houston means 100 catches and 1500 yards. Just like his pace has been for the past 4 years. I'll take him 5th overall, after Charles, AD, CJ, Foster. And I'd rather be drafting 8th or so, in order to get him after McCoy, Rice, and MJD too and have an earlier 2nd round pick.

Your ideas are good. But when you make a post that arrogant and then use examples which are completely wrong...no wonder people ripped you man.

Wow. Context really changes things sometimes. I guess it's important.ETA: I suppose I really ought to include the post to which that's a reply to (you know, because you can look and see that the comment you chose to single out is actually agreeing with an analysis done by another poster - no need to present my own when it differed only slightly)...but I think you've so thoroughly been outdone here that I can probably just call it quits.

 

[Bishop]

Closer. Of course, it should be recognized that you didn't quote the entirety of the post - I looked for the post you quoted and realized it wasn't actually a post - you took less than a paragraph from a post (good grief, that's more cherry picked than I expected at first!). Allow me:

The thing is, if you look at the situations surrounding Andre's career, he's performed better than those stats would indicate. Andre has his last season (86 for 1200+ yards) in 13 games...and two of those games he left early due to injury. That put shim on pace for...want to guess? Over 100 catches and over 1500 yards. If a guy can play through injury and have a "bad" season, and miss 3 games, and leave 2 more in the first or second quarter...and still have over 80 catches for over 1200 yards...the guy's a stud.

The previous season? 100+ catches for 1500+ yards.

The season before? 100+ catches (115 actually) for 1500+ yards.

The season before? Which you are putting in his career average? Broke his leg in the 9th game of the year. Would you like to guess what his pace was? Yeah. 100+ catches and 1500+ yards.

And in each of those seasons, he had 8, 9, 8, and 8 TDs. You know what his pace was when you account for the missed games? (3 last year, 7 in 2007). His per game TD pace projects to an average of...10 TDs per season. Which would be double digits, last time I checked. And the difference between your WR1 having 8 and 10 TDs...not gonna be that much. His average (not accounting for any games missed, purely aggregate TDs/seasons) the past four years (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010) is 8/year. That's definitely respectable...

Now, you're correct on one point. He hasn't always had those type of stats. In fact, let's look at his pre-2007 per game pace stats: Each year's per game pace average together gives him 5 catches/game, and 65 yards per game, a pedestrian 80 catch 1000+ yard season. And his TD pace is only 5 per season. In summary, he was a decent WR2 to have in PPR, but not the greatest by any means.

Now, that's counting his rookie season. Typically a poor season for the WR position, which has a high learning curve. But we won't even make that a factor.

What happened between 2006 and 2007 that gives Andre Johnson two very different 4-year career splits?

Care to hazard a guess? Stumped? Oh yeah...the Texans actually got a QB who didn't suck (Matt Schaub) and went .500 for the first time ever. Oh yeah...they hired an offensive minded Head Coach who wan't an idiot. Oh yeah.......need I go on?

Look:

Your ideas are something that I agree with. A lot of them. But you've got the wrong players. I think McCoy's overvalued. I think Hillis is undervalued as well, but I don;t think he's so undervalued that I'm going to take him in the 2nd. I'm more risk averse than that, and while I think he could be just as good again...I'm not THAT confident in that thought.

I won't go into any detail on Rice, but suffice it to say that a back who has started two seasons, and gone over 1800 yards both seasons, on an offense that is still on the rise - is a guy I would love to get at 6 or so. Yardage is consistent. TDs are not.

Look, I agree with your concept. That's how I was able to ride Matt Schaub in 2008-2009 when everybody said he was "made of glass" or "injury prone". But when you looked at his missed games...in 2008 every single one was a result of a penalized late hit that was later fined (4 games) and one where he had the flu. The consensus was that he couldn't finish a full season when the reality was...he'd been unlucky.

Thats the same thing you see with Johnson. It says you joined in 07, so let's think back to then on the opinions about Johnson: they included things like "ok receiver," "good but not great," "all his value comes from targets..."

And yet he started a 4 year run of dominance rarely seen in the NFL. Some of us who follow your same thoughts have been able to benefit from that for 4 years now.

Because you have to look at the individual situations. And drater makes a good point on Bowe - I think he's got a ton of physical talent, and he seems to have his head on straight. But I'm not going to blow a 2nd or 3rd round pick on him because he also comes with a hefty amount of risk. I think he'll be a nice WR2. I'm not going to pay a WR1 price for him. I'm the opposite of you. You think he's undervalued...I think he's OVERvalued.

But the concept you put forth is correct. A little abrasive. And the poster boys for your concept are both AWFUL examples, But the concept is correct, and one I totally agree with. The difference is that you assume I like a guy like Andre Johnson because "that's the consensus," when the reality is that I liked him when the consensus was to be down on him. And he has yet to show me anything to indicate that I was wrong. In fact, he's been even better than I thought he would be. He's still in his prime. He still has a good/great QB in a strong offense. Regardless of what anyone else thinks...I think that a healthy Andre in Houston means 100 catches and 1500 yards. Just like his pace has been for the past 4 years. I'll take him 5th overall, after Charles, AD, CJ, Foster. And I'd rather be drafting 8th or so, in order to get him after McCoy, Rice, and MJD too and have an earlier 2nd round pick.

Your ideas are good. But when you make a post that arrogant and then use examples which are completely wrong...no wonder people ripped you man.

Wow. Context really changes things sometimes. I guess it's important.ETA: I suppose I really ought to include the post to which that's a reply to (you know, because you can look and see that the comment you chose to single out is actually agreeing with an analysis done by another poster - no need to present my own when it differed only slightly)...but I think you've so thoroughly been outdone here that I can probably just call it quits.

Yes, your Houston analysis is spot on. The Hillis / McCoy bit is kinda light, I kept reading and found nothing. :(

But it's OK though because it was a throw away couple sentences in a otherwise very meaningful post.

 

[Dragon1952]

If Calvin and Stafford both stay healthy I don't see how anyone can possibly beat Calvin Johnson in FP's. If you look at the guys closest to him last year, Welker, Cruz, Jordy, Roddy....they should all regress IMO. Welker had a career year in targets, yds and TD's and has Lloyd and even more TE's in the picture now, Cruz is not likely to repeat his incredible year especially if the Giants do what they want to do (run the ball more) and if Nicks is healthier and a guy like Randle steps up, Jordy went from a high of 2 TD's to 15 on just 68 receptions...not likely to repeat that, and Roddy will be competing with more Julio and not likely to see 180 targets again. Julio has to compete with Roddy, Jordy with Jennings, Cruz with Nicks, Welker with Gronk, Hernandez and Lloyd...who does Calvin compete with? Who else is there that can get enough targets and with such an accurate QB to compete with CJ, who is almost guaranteed to not see a decrease in targets. And I do think that 60% catch percentage is sustainable to within a couple %. Colston maybe if Graham and Sproles weren't getting nearly 250 targets between them. Andre Johnson can't stay healthy enough. Britt's in too much trouble. If Cutler and Marshall click maybe Brandon? If I had to pick somebody I think that's who it would be.

 

[Zow]

Instinctive

 

[kutta]

Ah. You might want to lurk here for a little bit and see how the real men do things.Your whole premise isn't a very useful thread. Do you have a player you think beats him, or are you just bringing up the "never before seen, earth shattering, new and completely original idea" that "Not Calvin Johnson" is likely to finish WR1 overall?It's like if you had a custom roulette wheel: 20% of the spots are green, 40% are red, 20% yellow, and 20% black. (Yes, I realize there is no yellow on an actual roulette wheel).If you asked me "Do you think it will come up red, or another color?" I'd have to tell you no...because it is more likely than not that it comes up another color. If you asked "What color do you think it will come up as?" I would have to say red...because it's twice as likely as any other color.If you were to ask "Is it possible that a color other than red will come up?" I'd have to say you're being asinine, because it's obviously possible...

So, you would like me to predict a specific player that I think will do better than Cal. Johnson to make this thread resemble the majority of the threads here? Fine I'll take Fitz, Welker and White to finish the year above Cal. Johnson (PPR).Your roulette analogy isn't comparable to fantasy football, at least not in this regard. Because finishing the year as the #1 WR or even #3 still maintains value. If an injury were to occur then yes its a win/lose scenario like your analogy would hold water.How do you rank players after a dominate performance? Business as usual (He will continue his performance) or the law of averages (He will fall back down to Earth.)If it's the latter is he worth the 4th, 5th, or 6th pick overall?

I'll bet you $100. I'll take Calvin to finish #1. You take two of those three guys to finish #1.If none of them finish #1, the bet is void.Deal?

 

[Instinctive]

Instinctive