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Calvin Johnson versus ... (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter CravenM
- Start date
RC94
Footballguy
This is a well thought out analysis. These numbers are really the only things that matter when evaluating football players.
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'4" 220 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
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corrected
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'5" 239 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
corrected
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'5" 239 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
nice correction...and probably most important of all, the dude wants to be GREAT and has an exceptional work ethic...
FavreCo
Footballguy
CravenM
Footballguy
That is exactly the point of the post - thanks for agreeing.This is a well thought out analysis. These numbers are really the only things that matter when evaluating football players.
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'4" 220 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
mightyeskimo
Footballguy
If this actually makes sense to you then somewhere a 3rd grade teacher is not doing his job.That is exactly the point of the post - thanks for agreeing.This is a well thought out analysis. These numbers are really the only things that matter when evaluating football players.
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'4" 220 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
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RC94
Footballguy
If this actually makes sense to you then somewhere a 3rd grade teacher is not doing his job.That is exactly the point of the post - thanks for agreeing.This is a well thought out analysis. These numbers are really the only things that matter when evaluating football players.
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'4" 220 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
footballfreek
Footballguy
Not trying to hijack this thread but not so sure Rogers would have been a bust if he did not get hurt after 5 games into the start of his career. Look at the numbers after 5 games. Not a bad start. Now obviously the kid could not take a day without a toke so that may have led to his demise but it wasn't that he didn't have the talent. ARI 4 38 2 17.0 GB 4 38 0 4.3 MIN 6 54 0 5.4 DEN 4 62 1 12.2 SF 4 51 0 5.1 TOT 22 243 3 Everything you hear about Johnson is that he's dedicated to success. Like Gruden said if Johnson does not succeed there will be a whole lot of people wrong about Johnson. And those people are in the know.
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Slinger
Footballguy
As a Bucs fan I really want you to be the head scout for the Saints, Falcons or Panthers.That is exactly the point of the post - thanks for agreeing.This is a well thought out analysis. These numbers are really the only things that matter when evaluating football players.
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'4" 220 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Good plan. In fact, wait on all players until they have clearly established themselves as top quality players. That way you can be assured of the joy of paying premium prices for all you own. Never take a chance because risk is a scary thing. Life is all about being safe at all times.I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
weasel3515
Footballguy
Regarding Charles Rogers, I never saw him as a "can't miss" prospect. I saw him get shut down in college by the Iowa Hawkeyes so I knew he could be shut down at the NFL level.
Calvin might be the best rookie WR since Randy Moss. Sure everyone says that, but he has not only the measurables but also the best hands I've seen in a decade. But on top of all of that is how he is a very classy guy and also very intelligent. The dude is working on his own patent for something he's invented as an engineering student!
That said, if he ends up with the Raiders all bets are off no matter how talented he is. Look at Robert Gallery.
Calvin might be the best rookie WR since Randy Moss. Sure everyone says that, but he has not only the measurables but also the best hands I've seen in a decade. But on top of all of that is how he is a very classy guy and also very intelligent. The dude is working on his own patent for something he's invented as an engineering student!
That said, if he ends up with the Raiders all bets are off no matter how talented he is. Look at Robert Gallery.
weasel3515
Footballguy
Raiders=graveyard of talent. Lions aren't far behind.
He is the most uniformally hyped player I have seen since Larry Fitzgerald. And in fact, he is more hyped than Fitzgerald. There are NO naysayers that I am aware of, in the professional ranks. Even Bush had people last year that were critical of his size.
Johnson is a once every two or three years type player. People tout certain players as once in a decade, etc., but since we see that every two to three years, I'll tone it down a little. But Calvin Johnson had a mediocre QB in college, and still did what the tapes show. He makes ALL of the catches, circus and otherwise. He is Johnny Hustle out on the field. He hasn't beaten anybody with a pool cue, hasn't urinated in public (that we know of), and hasn't been an arrogant jerk. He will make any offense better. He will require double-teams immediately, and can out-run and out-muscle safeties and cornerbacks. As long as injury doesn't derail him, he looks to be another Tim Brown/Jerry Rice, with his positive attitude and apparent skill.
Johnson is a once every two or three years type player. People tout certain players as once in a decade, etc., but since we see that every two to three years, I'll tone it down a little. But Calvin Johnson had a mediocre QB in college, and still did what the tapes show. He makes ALL of the catches, circus and otherwise. He is Johnny Hustle out on the field. He hasn't beaten anybody with a pool cue, hasn't urinated in public (that we know of), and hasn't been an arrogant jerk. He will make any offense better. He will require double-teams immediately, and can out-run and out-muscle safeties and cornerbacks. As long as injury doesn't derail him, he looks to be another Tim Brown/Jerry Rice, with his positive attitude and apparent skill.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
I agree with alot of this post BUT I do believe he is a once in a decade talent at WR. We hear it alot, but the positions change that we hear it about. Bush was a RB. Peyton was QB. Etc. Last WR i saw hyped like this guy was Braylon Edwards, and Braylon could still turn out to be pretty good (another case of injury derailment).Tim Brown/Jerry Rice? WAY too early for that call. He does have to tools to put up numbers similar to Moss' first season though IF he goes to the right place. But don't forget how far Moss had to slip in the draft to end up on the Vikings. I don't see Calvin slipping, so ........... a solid player that is going to likely have to survive the NFL for a few years before he peaks.BTW IMO Stats are maybe 1/3 of the equation in evaluating a player. Work ethic is about 50% and then character/leadership qualities are the rest. Pats showed you just how far work ethic can take you.Demons said:
Englishteacher
Footballguy
I sure hope you're in one of my dynasty leagues this year is all I have to say.If Johnson goes to a team with a decent offense with a decent passing attack I think he could garner 1,000 yards in his rookie season, a rare accomplishment. Within a couple of years I expect to see him in the Pro Bowl. This is a guy I really want to see stay healthy.CravenM said:
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'4" 220 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
coming out was considered to be extremely raw; an intriguing player/prospect with good physical skills; injured from day one
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
#1 difference: Johnson is one of the best hands guys in recent memory. Williamson proved that he could run fast. He came from a run first team and was very unproven. Johnson made a scrambling, run-first-, athlete QB look good.
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
came form a system that has always inflated Wr values. Won't bother naming all the guys. Also, system was very inconguous as to what kind of routes WR's run versus NFL routes. Hurt most of rookie year after promising mini and training camps.
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Was inconsistent in college as far as top of the line NFL skills in terms of hands. Also didn't have a tremendous mental makeup like Johnson has.
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
It's hard to play when you're drunk. At his best, had inconsistent hands. Promising young WR who threw his career away. Johnson is considered when of the top character guys in the draft at a position where most are prima donnas.
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
Injuries and weed. What more can you say? Oh, has a bad attitude.
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
FavreCo
Footballguy
Just off the top of my head:
Tyrone Calico: Bricks for hands, weak route runner, always hurt. Always.
Troy Williamson: EXTRA-ordinary bricks for hands, fast and nothing else.
Chad Jackson: An above average WR at best. Unknown due to injury. Great hands.
David Terrell: Major attitude problems. Actually thinks he's great before doing anything. Slow.
Koren Robinson: Fast with MAJOR character problems, average hands at best.
Charles Rogers: Major off the field problems, injury derailed his career along with a lack of desire.
Go ahead and wait for Calvin Johnson as I scoop him up.
Tyrone Calico: Bricks for hands, weak route runner, always hurt. Always.
Troy Williamson: EXTRA-ordinary bricks for hands, fast and nothing else.
Chad Jackson: An above average WR at best. Unknown due to injury. Great hands.
David Terrell: Major attitude problems. Actually thinks he's great before doing anything. Slow.
Koren Robinson: Fast with MAJOR character problems, average hands at best.
Charles Rogers: Major off the field problems, injury derailed his career along with a lack of desire.
Go ahead and wait for Calvin Johnson as I scoop him up.
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massraider
Footballguy
Well, how about Andre Johnson?
Real good player, Pro Bowler even. Size, strength, speed. Is he unstoppable?
Real good player, Pro Bowler even. Size, strength, speed. Is he unstoppable?
FavreCo
Footballguy
We will find out now that he is paired with an NFL QB for the 1st time in his career.
massraider
Footballguy
Can I take that to mean that it is difficult to see how good he is because he has been playing with a crappy QB?
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Here are all the Top 5 overall WR picks since 1960 . . .
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rogers
Andre Johnson
Peter Warrick
Keyshawn Johnson
Michael Westbrook
Desmond Howard
Irving Fryar
Kenny Jackson
Lam Jones
Jerry Butler
Wes Chandler
Ahmad Rashad
J.D. Hill
Dave Parks
Gary Collins
Looking at the list, it appears to me that there is no such thing as a can't miss WR prospect. That being said, I think CJ will do well as a pro. Whether he will be scary good and Canton bound is something we'll have to wait and see.
Braylon Edwards
Larry Fitzgerald
Charles Rogers
Andre Johnson
Peter Warrick
Keyshawn Johnson
Michael Westbrook
Desmond Howard
Irving Fryar
Kenny Jackson
Lam Jones
Jerry Butler
Wes Chandler
Ahmad Rashad
J.D. Hill
Dave Parks
Gary Collins
Looking at the list, it appears to me that there is no such thing as a can't miss WR prospect. That being said, I think CJ will do well as a pro. Whether he will be scary good and Canton bound is something we'll have to wait and see.
More misses than hits. From an NFL standpoint we need to take a wait and see approach, from an FFL we need to snatch him up ASAP.
Warpig
Footballguy
Are you a GM? Seriously. Most GM's DO only draft by measurables and not game tape. They fall in love with the "potential" tag and toss out production on the field.I don't agree with you. Just asking.CravenM said:
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'4" 220 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
FavreCo
Footballguy
The crappiest. You haven't seen 1/2 of Andre Johnson yet. But you will.
massraider
Footballguy
That's very exciting. I hope we aren't saying the same thing about Calvin Johnson in 4 years.
CravenM
Footballguy
So many responses ... so little time ...
David Yudkin provided a great list of top 5 WRs and the history of those guys have certainly indicated that diving for "can't miss prospects can, more often than not, be a mistake."
For instance, in my keeper league last year, Reggie Bush went #2 OVERALL - take a wild guess as to whether or not the owner went to the playoffs last year. (yes, I know he was an RB - keep your comments to yourself while looking through the 8 billion posts about the "best RB ever")
FavreCo listed a summary of maladies of the receivers in hindsight: again, that's the point. You never know what a WR is going to look like or act like when he gets to the NFL. If the money goes to his head and he loses his ambition... If the weed and drugs start to flow like wine... If he can't get off the line of scrimmage... If his offense is too complex to pick up... If he doesn't play at full speed... If his QB sucks or the offense is focused on the running game and short passing only... and so forth.
So, the question is: Suppose Calvin Johnson ends up in Cleveland or Buffalo with Frye or Losman tossing him the rock in the breezy, cold stadiums. If you're in a redraft league, where would you take him? I would think there's a chance he could end up in the top 10-15 WRs in the league, more likely in the 25-35 field, and possibly worse like a 40-50 group. You already know what Hines Ward, Roy Williams and Donald Driver do year in a year out - are you going to take him above them?
In a keeper/dynasty league, are you going to build a team around him? If he went to the Raiders with Andrew Walter at QB and that porous front line and Randy Moss and Jerry Porter on the field - is he ever going to see the ball?
The fact is that a great WR needs a great QB in a great situation. Jerry Rice would have been nothing but a nice guy if he were in Tampa Bay
Lastly...
I was one of several last year indicating that Reggie Bush is a fine person and special talent but I didn't think he'd be a #1 RB regardless of where he went. He's never run between the tackles and he's a bit slight for the goal line. I think he did great last year in N.O. and probably ended up as a #2 RB in terms of scoring but the Saints had a great year overall - it'll be interesting to see if they can continue the success in the future.
The best GMs look at game tape, talk with the players, talk with the players' coaches and make shrewd judgements afterward.The original point of the post was to indicate that there are many statistical freaks that come out of college that never amount to much in the NFL due to real talent, circumstance, "suddenly rich" syndrome, etc.Are you a GM? Seriously. Most GM's DO only draft by measurables and not game tape. They fall in love with the "potential" tag and toss out production on the field.
I don't agree with you. Just asking.
David Yudkin provided a great list of top 5 WRs and the history of those guys have certainly indicated that diving for "can't miss prospects can, more often than not, be a mistake."
For instance, in my keeper league last year, Reggie Bush went #2 OVERALL - take a wild guess as to whether or not the owner went to the playoffs last year. (yes, I know he was an RB - keep your comments to yourself while looking through the 8 billion posts about the "best RB ever")
FavreCo listed a summary of maladies of the receivers in hindsight: again, that's the point. You never know what a WR is going to look like or act like when he gets to the NFL. If the money goes to his head and he loses his ambition... If the weed and drugs start to flow like wine... If he can't get off the line of scrimmage... If his offense is too complex to pick up... If he doesn't play at full speed... If his QB sucks or the offense is focused on the running game and short passing only... and so forth.
So, the question is: Suppose Calvin Johnson ends up in Cleveland or Buffalo with Frye or Losman tossing him the rock in the breezy, cold stadiums. If you're in a redraft league, where would you take him? I would think there's a chance he could end up in the top 10-15 WRs in the league, more likely in the 25-35 field, and possibly worse like a 40-50 group. You already know what Hines Ward, Roy Williams and Donald Driver do year in a year out - are you going to take him above them?
In a keeper/dynasty league, are you going to build a team around him? If he went to the Raiders with Andrew Walter at QB and that porous front line and Randy Moss and Jerry Porter on the field - is he ever going to see the ball?
The fact is that a great WR needs a great QB in a great situation. Jerry Rice would have been nothing but a nice guy if he were in Tampa Bay
Lastly...
I was one of several last year indicating that Reggie Bush is a fine person and special talent but I didn't think he'd be a #1 RB regardless of where he went. He's never run between the tackles and he's a bit slight for the goal line. I think he did great last year in N.O. and probably ended up as a #2 RB in terms of scoring but the Saints had a great year overall - it'll be interesting to see if they can continue the success in the future.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Fact is there has been no prospect EVER at WR with the combo of attributes that CJ brings to the table...
- Freakish size
- Freakish speed
- Freakish leaping ability
- Good character
- Good work ethic
- Team oriented
- Driven to be the best
- Tremendous intelligence
- Humble
- College production
- Great hands/WR skills
All of the busts were missing some or many of these, especially with regards to work ethic, desire and character.
CJ is the best OVERALL package at WR since Larry Fitz and is actually an even better prospect b/c he's faster, bigger and jumps higher.
Barring injury, this is the safest pick to become not just a decent player, but a great one in a long, long time.
- Freakish size
- Freakish speed
- Freakish leaping ability
- Good character
- Good work ethic
- Team oriented
- Driven to be the best
- Tremendous intelligence
- Humble
- College production
- Great hands/WR skills
All of the busts were missing some or many of these, especially with regards to work ethic, desire and character.
CJ is the best OVERALL package at WR since Larry Fitz and is actually an even better prospect b/c he's faster, bigger and jumps higher.
Barring injury, this is the safest pick to become not just a decent player, but a great one in a long, long time.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
Put him on the Indy Colts and reggie Wayne is looking for a job. And yes, he'd be unstoppable.
Gopher State
Footballguy
If the Raiders draft him, you won't need a scoop shovel, maybe a pitchfork with a long handle
Couch Potato
Footballguy
You forgot a few...- Leaps tall buildings in a single bound- More powerful than a locomotive- Faster than a speeding bullet- Walks on water- Gives policy to God
NorrisB
Footballguy
Well CJ did get shut down by A. Rolle
CravenM
Footballguy
Not that this is extremely pertinent to the discussion but GaTech isn't in a very good conference - in fact, they're average conference was having a bad year.Ga Tech 2006
From the CJ stats site, it looks like Troy, Clemson, UNC and UGA all shut him down.
Not that it really means anything...
LawFitz
Footballguy
Very true, how could I forget.
CravenM
Footballguy
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I'm usually a "1st Rd WRs are overrated" guy, but I think Johnson is the best WR prospect in my lifetime. The Fitzgerald comparisons are great b/c Larry's bust factor was near zero. CJ is Fitzgerald with a higher ceiling.
His production in the near future will largely hinge on his ability to avoid Oakland, but I'd be shocked if he's not a Pro Bowler by year 2 if he goes to Detroit, Cleveland, or Tampa.
I find it amusing that Matt Millen is going to be forced to make another huge mistake and pass on CJ. As much heat as he'd take, he has to draft Johnson, IMO.
His production in the near future will largely hinge on his ability to avoid Oakland, but I'd be shocked if he's not a Pro Bowler by year 2 if he goes to Detroit, Cleveland, or Tampa.
I find it amusing that Matt Millen is going to be forced to make another huge mistake and pass on CJ. As much heat as he'd take, he has to draft Johnson, IMO.
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CJ will be a pro bowler no matter where he goes, if he can dominate with Reggie Ball as his QB @ GT he can handle playing with a mediocre QB in the pros
also the raiders offense was terrible for 1 year and all of a sudden they're a graveyard for talent....ok
also the raiders offense was terrible for 1 year and all of a sudden they're a graveyard for talent....ok
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massraider
Footballguy
Yeah.We can't do that, though, can we?
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Calico showed flashes of potential before injuries. Williamson never showed the toughness and aggresiveness that CJ has in college.
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'4" 220 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
Chad.... give him some time, he was slowed by injury last year. He should develop.
David Terrell is a work ethic issue- CJ is known to have one of the most intense work ethics in this year's draft.
Koren... it has all been off the field problems that have caused him issues.
Charles Rogers.... actually..... not to sure why this guy has not done as well as expected.
Watch the game film of CJ playing. It is impressive. I am a believer.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
:wipesdroolfrommouth:
FavreCo
Footballguy
The worst case scenario for Calvin Johnson was to be drafted by a team with David Carr as the QB. That was eliminated with the Carolina signing. Next worst case is to be drafted by the Raiders and have no QB to throw to him until Brohm in 2008. Highly likely.
FavreCo
Footballguy
It doesn't. It means Reggie Ball shut him down.Not that this is extremely pertinent to the discussion but GaTech isn't in a very good conference - in fact, they're average conference was having a bad year.Ga Tech 2006
From the CJ stats site, it looks like Troy, Clemson, UNC and UGA all shut him down.
Not that it really means anything...
Couch Potato
Footballguy
But the worst case isn't going to happen. Tampa Bay will trade up to #1 and draft Calvin, and Garcia will win the QB job and be the guy throwing to him and Galloway. Pick trade.Tampa.Garcia.Couch Potato mortal lock on all three points.
Rev
Footballguy
I disagree. If this were the case, GMs would be scouting World Championship track and field sprinters rather than college football players. Measurables are only valuable in analyzing players who have demonstrated strong or potentially strong skills. In cases where measurables are overvalued (ala Troy Williamson and my Minnesota Vikings), GMs make poor decisions.I also disagree with most the harsh posts on this thread. It is completely valid and helpful to note the volume of high quality atheletes and college standouts who are now in the bust category. It keeps me from overpaying for a player simply because he is hyped coming out of college, because it reminds me that their is no automatic correlation between rookie draft position and FF success... even though higher drafted players may have a greater likelihood of attaining some degree of success.Are you a GM? Seriously. Most GM's only draft by measurables and not game tape. They fall in love with the "potential" tag and toss out production on the field.I don't agree with you. Just asking.
Player Ht Wt 40
Calvin Johnson 6'4" 220 4.35
Tyrone Calico 6'4" 222 4.34
Troy Williamson 6'2" 203 4.38
Chad Jackson 6'1" 213 4.35
David Terrell 6'3" 210 4.43
Koren Robinson 6'1" 210 4.33
Charles Rogers 6'2" 202 4.3
I think I'll wait a year or so before I drool ...
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