Cam Newton (1 Viewer)

[Kitrick Taylor]

Why Cam Newton is Carolina's goal line back

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on October 11, 2011, 10:56 AM EDT

Getty Images

Cam Newton has five rushing touchdowns this year. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have one combined.Panthers offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski has unapologetically used Newton as the team's goal line back, and that plan doesn't figure to change anytime soon.

"That's one place where it's so compact that it's hard to get good numbers and so with the quarterback as a runner your numbers even out so that you can get hats on hats a little easier," Chudzinski said of the strategy.

Newton has 13 carries inside the ten-yard line. Stewart and Williams have three combined. This highlights what a unique player Newton has already become.

With most quarterbacks, you'd be worried about the punishment Newton could take in close quarters. But Newton is usually the one dishing out punishment on his runs.









This makes absolutely zero sense to me. The Panthers have two very good RBs on their team. If either one of them were to get hurt, the Panthers' wouldn't offense wouldn't skip a beat. On the other hand, the Panthers have one franchise QB. If he gets hurt, Jimmy Clausen is the QB. That's the same guy that helped lead them to the #1 pick in the draft.



Even if "Newton is the one dishing out punishment on his runs" its still putting the "franchise" in a lot more jeopardy than necessary. Ask the Vikings about Daunte Culpepper. He threw for 4700+ yards and 39 TD passes in 2004. He blew out his ACL, MCL and PCL on a running play in 2005, and never threw for more than 5 TDs again. His career essentially ended that day. IMO Stewart and Williams are high quality backs, but they can be replaced so much easier than Newton.



If I were the owner or GM of that team, I'd have a talk with "Chud." While using the star QB as a goal line back may give the Panthers a bit of an edge in the near term, its taking a huge risk with the future of the franchise.



As a disclaimer, I'm not saying Newton should never run with the ball. Obviously that's part of his game, and he's a real threat doing just that. Running the ball 3-5 times a game though is a far cry from designing running plays inside the 10 yard line for your QB. There's 11 defenders now keying on Newton down there. Why do you think RB's have such a short shelf life in this league?

 

[jbz]

is there some stat that shows injuries happen more often on goal line carries? I'm sure the Panthers will use Cam's size to their advantage as much as possible. They probably are setting people up for some playaction down the road as well. They used a packed in double TE shotgun formation to run with Cam twice last week and he got stuffed first try and got in (not easily) in the second. If he faked a run on the second one and a TE just leaked out I'm sure it would have been wide open. But overall, I don't see him really being in more danger of getting injured than in any normal play so why not use him?

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

Why Cam Newton is Carolina's goal line back

Posted by Gregg Rosenthal on October 11, 2011, 10:56 AM EDT

Getty Images

Cam Newton has five rushing touchdowns this year. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have one combined.Panthers offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski has unapologetically used Newton as the team's goal line back, and that plan doesn't figure to change anytime soon.

"That's one place where it's so compact that it's hard to get good numbers and so with the quarterback as a runner your numbers even out so that you can get hats on hats a little easier," Chudzinski said of the strategy.

Newton has 13 carries inside the ten-yard line. Stewart and Williams have three combined. This highlights what a unique player Newton has already become.

With most quarterbacks, you'd be worried about the punishment Newton could take in close quarters. But Newton is usually the one dishing out punishment on his runs.









This makes absolutely zero sense to me. The Panthers have two very good RBs on their team. If either one of them were to get hurt, the Panthers' wouldn't offense wouldn't skip a beat. On the other hand, the Panthers have one franchise QB. If he gets hurt, Jimmy Clausen is the QB. That's the same guy that helped lead them to the #1 pick in the draft.



Even if "Newton is the one dishing out punishment on his runs" its still putting the "franchise" in a lot more jeopardy than necessary. Ask the Vikings about Daunte Culpepper. He threw for 4700+ yards and 39 TD passes in 2004. He blew out his ACL, MCL and PCL on a running play in 2005, and never threw for more than 5 TDs again. His career essentially ended that day. IMO Stewart and Williams are high quality backs, but they can be replaced so much easier than Newton.



If I were the owner or GM of that team, I'd have a talk with "Chud." While using the star QB as a goal line back may give the Panthers a bit of an edge in the near term, its taking a huge risk with the future of the franchise.



As a disclaimer, I'm not saying Newton should never run with the ball. Obviously that's part of his game, and he's a real threat doing just that. Running the ball 3-5 times a game though is a far cry from designing running plays inside the 10 yard line for your QB. There's 11 defenders now keying on Newton down there. Why do you think RB's have such a short shelf life in this league?

Sooner or later the Panthers are going to have to figure out that they have to run the ball more than 15 times between Williams and Stewart. Yes, Newton is legit, but the Panthers need to be more than Just Newton/Smith/Olsen. While they're putting up points, they're still punting the ball after they go three and out, and the Panther defense is spending way too much time on the field. One way to correct that is to put two of the most talented guys on the entire roster to work. I have to think Chud and Rivera go this route.

 

[jurb26]

It makes sense schematically. I mean he's right, how do you stop a guy with Cam's skills that close to the endzone? Still, it seems like an odd approach to take with so much regularity. Why not at least give Newton and the RBs an even split? I don't see the sense of constantly putting Newton in harms way simply because he can do it. If they didn't have other capable players I would see it more. You're right though, he is the franchise QB! Keep him healthy and let him continue to develop. It's not like Car is winning anyway.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

is there some stat that shows injuries happen more often on goal line carries? I'm sure the Panthers will use Cam's size to their advantage as much as possible. They probably are setting people up for some playaction down the road as well. They used a packed in double TE shotgun formation to run with Cam twice last week and he got stuffed first try and got in (not easily) in the second. If he faked a run on the second one and a TE just leaked out I'm sure it would have been wide open. But overall, I don't see him really being in more danger of getting injured than in any normal play so why not use him?

Not sure about a stat, but in short yardage runs ball carriers tend to take more shots from more guys. It could lead to Cam wearing down. No sense in using that size to get the job done while putting the franchise QB at unneeded risk. That's what you have two first round draft picks at RB for. Let them take the punishment.

 

[moderated]

While they're putting up points, they're still punting the ball after they go three and out, and the Panther defense is spending way too much time on the field. One way to correct that is to put two of the most talented guys on the entire roster to work. I have to think Chud and Rivera go this route.

The panthers time of possession stats so far this season disagree with you. The offense has spent an average of 30:44 on the field vs 29:15 for the defense.

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

While they're putting up points, they're still punting the ball after they go three and out, and the Panther defense is spending way too much time on the field. One way to correct that is to put two of the most talented guys on the entire roster to work. I have to think Chud and Rivera go this route.

The panthers time of possession stats so far this season disagree with you. The offense has spent an average of 30:44 on the field vs 29:15 for the defense.

The Panthers defense is injured, and not great. The Panthers need to win the time of possession, not split it with the opponent.

 

[moderated]

While they're putting up points, they're still punting the ball after they go three and out, and the Panther defense is spending way too much time on the field. One way to correct that is to put two of the most talented guys on the entire roster to work. I have to think Chud and Rivera go this route.

The panthers time of possession stats so far this season disagree with you. The offense has spent an average of 30:44 on the field vs 29:15 for the defense.

The Panthers defense is injured, and not great. The Panthers need to win the time of possession, not split it with the opponent.

the offense is winning time of possession. Do you expect them to average 40 min a game on offense or something? That doesn't happen in the NFL.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

is there some stat that shows injuries happen more often on goal line carries? I'm sure the Panthers will use Cam's size to their advantage as much as possible. They probably are setting people up for some playaction down the road as well. They used a packed in double TE shotgun formation to run with Cam twice last week and he got stuffed first try and got in (not easily) in the second. If he faked a run on the second one and a TE just leaked out I'm sure it would have been wide open. But overall, I don't see him really being in more danger of getting injured than in any normal play so why not use him?

I don't have a stat to back it up, but I think of it this way. The field is very small when the ball is down inside the 10. There's 11 defenders crowded together within that space. It's what makes it so difficult to complete a pass down there as well. Lanes are smaller etc. Also, think of all the rules that have been put in place to protect the QBs. When Newton is out there running the ball, all those protections go out the window. Those rules were put in place because there's so few guys that can play the position at a high level. Let's be honest here too, most people watch the games to see guys like Newton play. How many less tickets are sold if Clausen starts 8 games this year? How many people stayed tuned to the TV to watch Newton, and how many turn it off if Clausen is back there?

 

[Mr Rodgers neighborhood]

While they're putting up points, they're still punting the ball after they go three and out, and the Panther defense is spending way too much time on the field. One way to correct that is to put two of the most talented guys on the entire roster to work. I have to think Chud and Rivera go this route.

The panthers time of possession stats so far this season disagree with you. The offense has spent an average of 30:44 on the field vs 29:15 for the defense.

The Panthers defense is injured, and not great. The Panthers need to win the time of possession, not split it with the opponent.

the offense is winning time of possession. Do you expect them to average 40 min a game on offense or something? That doesn't happen in the NFL.

45 seconds a game is winning the time of possession?

 

[FavreCo]

The beatdowns this guy is going to receive over the next few years will speed up his flameout. He'll be gone faster than McNair. That dude scored tons of GL TD's and took unneeded beatings.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

It makes a lot of sense to announce he's the goal line back strategically. Going forward, they can actually stick with that or not.

 

[GDogg]

The beatdowns this guy is going to receive over the next few years will speed up his flameout. He'll be gone faster than McNair. That dude scored tons of GL TD's and took unneeded beatings.

McNair played 13 seasons in the NFL. The average length of an NFL quarterback's career is 4.44 years, according to the NFLPA.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

While they're putting up points, they're still punting the ball after they go three and out, and the Panther defense is spending way too much time on the field. One way to correct that is to put two of the most talented guys on the entire roster to work. I have to think Chud and Rivera go this route.

The panthers time of possession stats so far this season disagree with you. The offense has spent an average of 30:44 on the field vs 29:15 for the defense.

The Panthers defense is injured, and not great. The Panthers need to win the time of possession, not split it with the opponent.

the offense is winning time of possession. Do you expect them to average 40 min a game on offense or something? That doesn't happen in the NFL.

45 seconds a game is winning the time of possession?

Yes?

 

[dickey moe]

The beatdowns this guy is going to receive over the next few years will speed up his flameout. He'll be gone faster than McNair. That dude scored tons of GL TD's and took unneeded beatings.

Worthless post.

 

[strong]

The beatdowns this guy is going to receive over the next few years will speed up his flameout. He'll be gone faster than McNair. That dude scored tons of GL TD's and took unneeded beatings.

i'm so glad you have that favre icon--it makes me imagine favre saying what you're writing... and whenever i see it, especially when it's about cam, i get ready for a good chuckle.

 

[dgreen]

Real coaches don't spend their time worrying about a guy getting injured. You can't coach that way and be successful.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

The beatdowns this guy is going to receive over the next few years will speed up his flameout. He'll be gone faster than McNair. That dude scored tons of GL TD's and took unneeded beatings.

McNair played 13 seasons in the NFL. The average length of an NFL quarterback's career is 4.44 years, according to the NFLPA.

Technically McNair did play 13 seasons. However, he didn't really play too much his first two years, and he wasn't very good his last four. His rushing numbers basically vanished for his last 5 years. Essentially, McNair was a quality player for 7 years. The seasons that McNair was a dual threat, he never rushed the ball more than 101 times in a season. Right now, Newton is on pace for 128 rushing attempts.

As a point of reference here's the quality years by some rushing QBs.

McNair 7

Culpepper 5

McNabb 10

Compare that to some of the more traditional pocket passers

Manning 13 so far.

Brady 11 so far.

Brees 10 so far.

Aikman 12.

Favre 18

I know that's pretty far from a scientific approach, but the three rushing QB's listed there all were in multiple pro bowls. They were big guys and talented players that flamed out much earlier than their more traditional pocket passers of their era. I don't think that's coincidence.

 

[strong]

This makes absolutely zero sense to me. The Panthers have two very good RBs on their team. If either one of them were to get hurt, the Panthers' wouldn't offense wouldn't skip a beat. On the other hand, the Panthers have one franchise QB. If he gets hurt, Jimmy Clausen is the QB. That's the same guy that helped lead them to the #1 pick in the draft.



Even if "Newton is the one dishing out punishment on his runs" its still putting the "franchise" in a lot more jeopardy than necessary. Ask the Vikings about Daunte Culpepper. He threw for 4700+ yards and 39 TD passes in 2004. He blew out his ACL, MCL and PCL on a running play in 2005, and never threw for more than 5 TDs again. His career essentially ended that day. IMO Stewart and Williams are high quality backs, but they can be replaced so much easier than Newton.



If I were the owner or GM of that team, I'd have a talk with "Chud." While using the star QB as a goal line back may give the Panthers a bit of an edge in the near term, its taking a huge risk with the future of the franchise.



As a disclaimer, I'm not saying Newton should never run with the ball. Obviously that's part of his game, and he's a real threat doing just that. Running the ball 3-5 times a game though is a far cry from designing running plays inside the 10 yard line for your QB. There's 11 defenders now keying on Newton down there. Why do you think RB's have such a short shelf life in this league?

this makes a lot of sense to me:

the coach is right: if cam is the ball carrier, you can block the defensive 11 with 10 guys. if cam hands it off, you're down to 9 blocking bodies. having an extra blocker or decoy, even if it's stewart or deangelo, increases the odds that you get one blocker on each defender in the area.

also, just a guess without anything to back it up other than anecdotal evidence of hours and hours of football watching: i'm willing to bet that most critical injuries in the NFL happen in the open field away from the goalline. the vast majority of major injuries to skill position players i can remember from my years of football watching have occurred in the open field, typically in an open-field hit at the knees or no contact ACL/hammy type injury. with quarterbacks, most injuries seem to happen in the pocket or scrambling and taking a huge blow from a defender running at full speed. that's not the case at the goalline.

that's not to downplay the extra pounding cam will take compared to other QBs, but i'd be more concerned about Cam getting laid out in the pocket like Vick and Cutler each week than I would be about four or five goalline plays in which a few lineman try to stand him up or fall on him.

 

[jbz]

that's how I see it as well. I also think them saying it openly now will work to their advantage as they can trick the D easier or at least keep them guessing.

One thing about Cam I noticed is when he takes off to run, he really does a good job of avoiding big hits and slides or goes down in a smart way. He didn't do that all the time in college, especially in the BCS title game and he took some big shots. But I think he's been coached to not take unnecessary hits. So he might leave some yards rushing on the field, but he stays healthier for the time being. Unlike Vick he tries to get as much yards as possible and takes some shots along the way.

 

[strong]

that's how I see it as well. I also think them saying it openly now will work to their advantage as they can trick the D easier or at least keep them guessing.

One thing about Cam I noticed is when he takes off to run, he really does a good job of avoiding big hits and slides or goes down in a smart way. He didn't do that all the time in college, especially in the BCS title game and he took some big shots. But I think he's been coached to not take unnecessary hits. So he might leave some yards rushing on the field, but he stays healthier for the time being. Unlike Vick he tries to get as much yards as possible and takes some shots along the way.

exactly. on the list of quarterbacks that have taken huge hits this season, i'd say cam is about middle of the pack, despite how many carries he's received.

***

i decided to look up QB sacks and hits. wow. i am surprised by this:

ESPN O-Line Stats

Carolina ranks Eleventh in QB sacks allowed, a pretty good number for the fourth most pass attempts.

Carolina ranks FIRST in QB hits allowed. Cam has only been "hit" 17 times this season, the fewest in the NFL--considering that Cam has the fourth highest amount of attempts, that's incredible. Compare the # of hits with Stafford (23), Sanchez (29), Vick (29), Cutler (31), Ryan (35), and Bradford (41), all of whom except for Ryan have fewer pass attempts.

Given the few amount of times he's been hit, I don't think any Cam newton owners should worry about goalline carries... Stafford, Sanchez, Vick, Cutler, Ryan, and Bradford owners should be concerned, however...

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

that's how I see it as well. I also think them saying it openly now will work to their advantage as they can trick the D easier or at least keep them guessing.

One thing about Cam I noticed is when he takes off to run, he really does a good job of avoiding big hits and slides or goes down in a smart way. He didn't do that all the time in college, especially in the BCS title game and he took some big shots. But I think he's been coached to not take unnecessary hits. So he might leave some yards rushing on the field, but he stays healthier for the time being. Unlike Vick he tries to get as much yards as possible and takes some shots along the way.

exactly. on the list of quarterbacks that have taken huge hits this season, i'd say cam is about middle of the pack, despite how many carries he's received.

***

i decided to look up QB sacks and hits. wow. i am surprised by this:

ESPN O-Line Stats

Carolina ranks Eleventh in QB sacks allowed, a pretty good number for the fourth most pass attempts.

Carolina ranks FIRST in QB hits allowed. Cam has only been "hit" 17 times this season, the fewest in the NFL--considering that Cam has the fourth highest amount of attempts, that's incredible. Compare the # of hits with Stafford (23), Sanchez (29), Vick (29), Cutler (31), Ryan (35), and Bradford (41), all of whom except for Ryan have fewer pass attempts.

Given the few amount of times he's been hit, I don't think any Cam newton owners should worry about goalline carries... Stafford, Sanchez, Vick, Cutler, Ryan, and Bradford owners should be concerned, however...

You do realize that Newton has rushed 40 times so far this year. How many of those 40 was he hit? I don't have the number, but my guess is it would easily put him over the 41 that Bradford has taken. That would mean he was tackled on 24 of his 40 attempts just to tie Bradford.

 

[Bermuda_Chub]

that's how I see it as well. I also think them saying it openly now will work to their advantage as they can trick the D easier or at least keep them guessing.

One thing about Cam I noticed is when he takes off to run, he really does a good job of avoiding big hits and slides or goes down in a smart way. He didn't do that all the time in college, especially in the BCS title game and he took some big shots. But I think he's been coached to not take unnecessary hits. So he might leave some yards rushing on the field, but he stays healthier for the time being. Unlike Vick he tries to get as much yards as possible and takes some shots along the way.

exactly. on the list of quarterbacks that have taken huge hits this season, i'd say cam is about middle of the pack, despite how many carries he's received.

***

i decided to look up QB sacks and hits. wow. i am surprised by this:

ESPN O-Line Stats

Carolina ranks Eleventh in QB sacks allowed, a pretty good number for the fourth most pass attempts.

Carolina ranks FIRST in QB hits allowed. Cam has only been "hit" 17 times this season, the fewest in the NFL--considering that Cam has the fourth highest amount of attempts, that's incredible. Compare the # of hits with Stafford (23), Sanchez (29), Vick (29), Cutler (31), Ryan (35), and Bradford (41), all of whom except for Ryan have fewer pass attempts.

Given the few amount of times he's been hit, I don't think any Cam newton owners should worry about goalline carries... Stafford, Sanchez, Vick, Cutler, Ryan, and Bradford owners should be concerned, however...

Culpepper blew out his knee on a scramble from midfield, not a goalline carry. Honestly, I don't think that I've ever seen a QB injured on a goalline sneak; there's just not enough time to build up the kind of force necessary to tear ligaments and break bones. I remember when Peyton used to sneak it in from the 1 or 2 every time he had the opportunity. That said, I'm sure the Panthers will fake the sneak and flip it to Stewart or Williams for a walk-in TD in the near future.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Real coaches don't spend their time worrying about a guy getting injured. You can't coach that way and be successful.

I'd agree with this premise for every other position than QB. Coaches spend countless hours trying to devise the best ways to keep them from getting hit. Look how the value of offensive lineman has soared. While I'd agree that Newton probably is less likely to take a huge hit at the goal line, I'd say he's much more likely to get hit by 2 or 3 guys at, or near the same time. Look, I'm sure that most of you that are disagreeing with my assertion are Newton owners and are loving the extra TDs. I'm sure Chud's plan is sound from a X's and O's standpoint as well. I just think that kind of thinking is going to leave the Panthers looking for a replacement at QB sooner than they'd like. From Chud's perspective, he just wants to score as many points as possible and keep his job or get a promotion to a HC. If I were Jerry Richardson though, I'd want to make sure my franchise QB stays my franchise QB for a long, long time though. We've had 4 high quality running QB's in the last 15 years. McNair, Culpepper, McNabb and Vick. Only McNabb made it to 10 years. The high quality pocket passers seem to last about twice as many years.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Some funny overanalysis in here. As a Cam owner, I'm happy to read this news.

 

[jbz]

Real coaches don't spend their time worrying about a guy getting injured. You can't coach that way and be successful.

I'd agree with this premise for every other position than QB. Coaches spend countless hours trying to devise the best ways to keep them from getting hit. Look how the value of offensive lineman has soared. While I'd agree that Newton probably is less likely to take a huge hit at the goal line, I'd say he's much more likely to get hit by 2 or 3 guys at, or near the same time. Look, I'm sure that most of you that are disagreeing with my assertion are Newton owners and are loving the extra TDs. I'm sure Chud's plan is sound from a X's and O's standpoint as well. I just think that kind of thinking is going to leave the Panthers looking for a replacement at QB sooner than they'd like. From Chud's perspective, he just wants to score as many points as possible and keep his job or get a promotion to a HC. If I were Jerry Richardson though, I'd want to make sure my franchise QB stays my franchise QB for a long, long time though. We've had 4 high quality running QB's in the last 15 years. McNair, Culpepper, McNabb and Vick. Only McNabb made it to 10 years. The high quality pocket passers seem to last about twice as many years.

McNair played more than 10 years. Culpepper's knee was tore up on an open field play and technically has 11 seasons under his belt, but yeah he was never the same after that injury. Vick is still playing and is like half the size of Newton and recklessly throws his body around. I think Newton can handle a few goal line carries every now and then.

 

[strong]

that's how I see it as well. I also think them saying it openly now will work to their advantage as they can trick the D easier or at least keep them guessing.

One thing about Cam I noticed is when he takes off to run, he really does a good job of avoiding big hits and slides or goes down in a smart way. He didn't do that all the time in college, especially in the BCS title game and he took some big shots. But I think he's been coached to not take unnecessary hits. So he might leave some yards rushing on the field, but he stays healthier for the time being. Unlike Vick he tries to get as much yards as possible and takes some shots along the way.

exactly. on the list of quarterbacks that have taken huge hits this season, i'd say cam is about middle of the pack, despite how many carries he's received.

***

i decided to look up QB sacks and hits. wow. i am surprised by this:

ESPN O-Line Stats

Carolina ranks Eleventh in QB sacks allowed, a pretty good number for the fourth most pass attempts.

Carolina ranks FIRST in QB hits allowed. Cam has only been "hit" 17 times this season, the fewest in the NFL--considering that Cam has the fourth highest amount of attempts, that's incredible. Compare the # of hits with Stafford (23), Sanchez (29), Vick (29), Cutler (31), Ryan (35), and Bradford (41), all of whom except for Ryan have fewer pass attempts.

Given the few amount of times he's been hit, I don't think any Cam newton owners should worry about goalline carries... Stafford, Sanchez, Vick, Cutler, Ryan, and Bradford owners should be concerned, however...

You do realize that Newton has rushed 40 times so far this year. How many of those 40 was he hit? I don't have the number, but my guess is it would easily put him over the 41 that Bradford has taken. That would mean he was tackled on 24 of his 40 attempts just to tie Bradford.

yes, i know. i think it's important to note, however, that 13 of those rushes have been inside the ten. that leaves about 27 rushing attempts in the "open field." (split hairs on this if you want, but i think there's a distinction between open field scrambling and play calls near the goalline--this is based on very few memories of a quarterback or running back suffering a significant injury on a goalline rush.)

i'll be the first to agree that in general extra hits lead to a decrease in physical performance, over the course of a game and a career. i'd concede that. but i also consider it a truism that different types of hits have a different impacts on the body.

i'd roughly rate them, the top being the most dangerous:

standing in the pocket, often after just releasing the ball with linemen rolling around or lunging at the quarterback's knees or throwing the quarterback down on a shoulder or head.

scrambling

goalline/inside the five rushes

***

disagree with that if you want, but it passes the sniff test in my head...

basically, cam is mixed bag. the early results are that he avoids hits in the pocket, which i think is most important and bodes very well for his longevity. but his rushing attempts (minus goalline carries) are in the top third of the league for quarterbacks, which adds a degree of injury risk, although a risk i'd consider less potent than pocket "hits" and sacks. last, he takes a lot more hits on the goalline, but i think goalline hits have a minimal impact on an athlete.

any comparisons to the careers of other rushing quarterbacks should take pocket presence into consideration. without looking it up, i know vick has always taken a lot of sacks and "hits," not counting rushing attempts. i'm not sure of the other guys offhand. perhaps i'll look into it more tomorrow, but i'd bet decent money that there's more significant correlation between pocket "hits" and sacks and decreased performance than there is between pure rushing attempts and decreased performance. that's just an assumption, but i think it's the logical one.

 

[dgreen]

Real coaches don't spend their time worrying about a guy getting injured. You can't coach that way and be successful.

I'd agree with this premise for every other position than QB. Coaches spend countless hours trying to devise the best ways to keep them from getting hit. Look how the value of offensive lineman has soared.

Right, because coaches like the QB to be able to complete passes and not fumble.

 

[urbanhack]

The beatdowns this guy is going to receive over the next few years will speed up his flameout. He'll be gone faster than McNair. That dude scored tons of GL TD's and took unneeded beatings.

McNair played 13 seasons in the NFL. The average length of an NFL quarterback's career is 4.44 years, according to the NFLPA.

FavreCo's hate for this guy is unmatched.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Cam's play so far has taken away the "horrible player" comments so his detractors are left with nothing negative to say except "he will only be relevant for 7 - 10 years."

And a comparison to McNair is a compliment in my book.

 

[simey]

The beatdowns this guy is going to receive over the next few years will speed up his flameout. He'll be gone faster than McNair. That dude scored tons of GL TD's and took unneeded beatings.

McNair played 13 seasons in the NFL. The average length of an NFL quarterback's career is 4.44 years, according to the NFLPA.

FavreCo's hate for this guy is unmatched.

He is pissy because he owns DeAngelo Williams, and Cam is stealing his GL carries.

 

[5-ish Finkle]

FavreCo's hate for this guy is unmatched.

This just isn't true. FavreCo hates everyone equally.I seriously can't recall a single player that he's liked in all the years I've been posting/lurking here, and it's to the point now that I hope it always stays that way. If he were to ever actually gush about someone I think it'd be sort of like learning that the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus didn't exist. My innocence would suffer multiple fractures.

He is pissy because he owns DeAngelo Williams, and Cam is stealing his GL carries.

That's sort of how I took the original post when I first read it. "Sounds like a disgruntled Jonathan Stewart owner.", but reading through the thread it sounds more like overanalyzing more than anything.Newton has no more of a chance to get hurt at the stripe as he has to get hurt dropping back to pass at the 50. Every hit carries the risk of serious injury.

 

[FDC]

This makes absolutely zero sense to me. The Panthers have two very good RBs on their team.

But their oline can't get a push. If you followed the game script it makes sense. Their run game is starting to click so I'd expect his goalline TDs to decrease. He is tied for 3rd in the NFL in rush TDs. That is not going to keep up.

 

[DeaLerZ]

this thread is just a waste of time ... just a pissed off owner who didn't get Cam newton, and probably is stuck with one of the Carolina RB's

speculating about how long the dude's career is going to be based on the fact that he runs the ball is really a waste of time when your talking about Cam...

he is a player that we have never seen in this league before based on his size, athletic ability, and arm strength

that's how I see it as well. I also think them saying it openly now will work to their advantage as they can trick the D easier or at least keep them guessing.

One thing about Cam I noticed is when he takes off to run, he really does a good job of avoiding big hits and slides or goes down in a smart way. He didn't do that all the time in college, especially in the BCS title game and he took some big shots. But I think he's been coached to not take unnecessary hits. So he might leave some yards rushing on the field, but he stays healthier for the time being. Unlike Vick he tries to get as much yards as possible and takes some shots along the way.

exactly. on the list of quarterbacks that have taken huge hits this season, i'd say cam is about middle of the pack, despite how many carries he's received.

***

i decided to look up QB sacks and hits. wow. i am surprised by this:

ESPN O-Line Stats

Carolina ranks Eleventh in QB sacks allowed, a pretty good number for the fourth most pass attempts.

Carolina ranks FIRST in QB hits allowed. Cam has only been "hit" 17 times this season, the fewest in the NFL--considering that Cam has the fourth highest amount of attempts, that's incredible. Compare the # of hits with Stafford (23), Sanchez (29), Vick (29), Cutler (31), Ryan (35), and Bradford (41), all of whom except for Ryan have fewer pass attempts.

Given the few amount of times he's been hit, I don't think any Cam newton owners should worry about goalline carries... Stafford, Sanchez, Vick, Cutler, Ryan, and Bradford owners should be concerned, however...

but this is definitely the most compelling argument... Cam's athletic ability is what has eluded him from getting sacked, and avoided big hits.. and even when people have tried to put a big hit on him it looks like they ran into a brick wall

 

[BassNBrew]

If you subtract Cam's rushing numbers and allow all the other QBs to keep theirs, he would be the 10th ranked QB (FBG std scoring). His rushing stats alone would rank him 19th among the RBs.

Basically one player is giving you low end QB1 and middling RB2 fantasy numbers.

 

[kyoun1e]

Curious what Cam is netting people in terms of WR talent.

Looking at FBG WR ranks in their top 250 I see the following WRs falling around Cam (in my league's scoring, PPR):

WR5 -- H. Nicks

WR6 -- M. Wallace

WR7 -- S. Johnson

Cam Newton

WR 8 -- R. White

WR 9 -- G. Jennings

WR 10 -- V. Jackson

WR 11 -- J. Maclin

Nobody is biting on WR 5-7. I tried to pry Jennings from an owner who has Ryan/Grossman/Sanchez and no go. I'm now going for J. Maclin, but have a feeling he's not going to bite on that either. And this is in a 6pts per TD pass league with 12 teams. Per FBG, after Maclin we're getting into D. Bowe territory...not sure I want to go there, but for the WR desperate, I'd consider it.

KY

 

[Reepicheep]

Cam's play so far has taken away the "horrible player" comments so his detractors are left with nothing negative to say except "he will only be relevant for 7 - 10 years."

And a comparison to McNair is a compliment in my book.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

What I noticed in the Saints-Panthers game was Newton basically just pushing up behind his line in a regular ol' scrum until they fell forward into the end zone. Of course it helped that the refs gave them more than enough time of pushing with little to no movement to get it done, but still.... effective. Newton is big enough to help with the pushing right from the get-go at the snap. My sense of things is that teams that are one-dimensional (even if it's one player who is two dimensional) are eventually figured out.

As for FF or even football in general Williams and Stewart are two former first round picks with massive talent who are basically overpaid and underutilized in this situation. Too, too bad.

 

[GDogg]

The beatdowns this guy is going to receive over the next few years will speed up his flameout. He'll be gone faster than McNair. That dude scored tons of GL TD's and took unneeded beatings.

McNair played 13 seasons in the NFL. The average length of an NFL quarterback's career is 4.44 years, according to the NFLPA.

Technically McNair did play 13 seasons. However, he didn't really play too much his first two years, and he wasn't very good his last four. His rushing numbers basically vanished for his last 5 years. Essentially, McNair was a quality player for 7 years. The seasons that McNair was a dual threat, he never rushed the ball more than 101 times in a season. Right now, Newton is on pace for 128 rushing attempts.

As a point of reference here's the quality years by some rushing QBs.

McNair 7

Culpepper 5

McNabb 10

Compare that to some of the more traditional pocket passers

Manning 13 so far.

Brady 11 so far.

Brees 10 so far.

Aikman 12.

Favre 18

I know that's pretty far from a scientific approach, but the three rushing QB's listed there all were in multiple pro bowls. They were big guys and talented players that flamed out much earlier than their more traditional pocket passers of their era. I don't think that's coincidence.

That IS pretty far from a scientific approach. What happens when you add in guys like Steve Young, Randall Cunningham, Fran Tarkenton, Mark Brunell, John Elway, Michael Vick, Roger Staubach, etc.?

I mean, you simply cherry-picked a few rushing qbs and cherry-picked traditional pocket passers from one era, which may not be representative of how many years QBs play.

On top of that, what is your criteria for "quality years?"

Additionally, your post doesn't refute the point that McNair wasn't "gone" (FavreCo's words) very quickly.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

What I noticed in the Saints-Panthers game was Newton basically just pushing up behind his line in a regular ol' scrum until they fell forward into the end zone. Of course it helped that the refs gave them more than enough time of pushing with little to no movement to get it done, but still.... effective. Newton is big enough to help with the pushing right from the get-go at the snap. My sense of things is that teams that are one-dimensional (even if it's one player who is two dimensional) are eventually figured out.

As for FF or even football in general Williams and Stewart are two former first round picks with massive talent who are basically overpaid and underutilized in this situation. Too, too bad.

How is Carolina any more one-dimensional than any of the other teams? Cam is getting TD's by running the ball at the goal line. He's been really successful at it. You're right that it may be figured out eventually but it hasn't been yet, and I'm guessing Carolina adjusts once it is figured out.

The Carolina RB's being under-utilized is one opinion.

 

[GDogg]

Real coaches don't spend their time worrying about a guy getting injured. You can't coach that way and be successful.

I'd agree with this premise for every other position than QB. Coaches spend countless hours trying to devise the best ways to keep them from getting hit. Look how the value of offensive lineman has soared. While I'd agree that Newton probably is less likely to take a huge hit at the goal line, I'd say he's much more likely to get hit by 2 or 3 guys at, or near the same time.

Look, I'm sure that most of you that are disagreeing with my assertion are Newton owners and are loving the extra TDs. I'm sure Chud's plan is sound from a X's and O's standpoint as well. I just think that kind of thinking is going to leave the Panthers looking for a replacement at QB sooner than they'd like.

From Chud's perspective, he just wants to score as many points as possible and keep his job or get a promotion to a HC. If I were Jerry Richardson though, I'd want to make sure my franchise QB stays my franchise QB for a long, long time though. We've had 4 high quality running QB's in the last 15 years. McNair, Culpepper, McNabb and Vick. Only McNabb made it to 10 years. The high quality pocket passers seem to last about twice as many years.

Except that McNair made it to 13, and Vick was in jail wiping out 3 of his seasons.

 

[kencav]

Cam should NOT be the goal line back supporters....

1-Cam haters

2-Dwill owners

3-JStew owners

4-Possible Olsen or Shockey owners

Personally I believe Cam should recieve EVERY carry and throw to himself!

1- Obviously a Cam owner

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Real coaches don't spend their time worrying about a guy getting injured. You can't coach that way and be successful.

I'd agree with this premise for every other position than QB. Coaches spend countless hours trying to devise the best ways to keep them from getting hit. Look how the value of offensive lineman has soared. While I'd agree that Newton probably is less likely to take a huge hit at the goal line, I'd say he's much more likely to get hit by 2 or 3 guys at, or near the same time.

Look, I'm sure that most of you that are disagreeing with my assertion are Newton owners and are loving the extra TDs. I'm sure Chud's plan is sound from a X's and O's standpoint as well. I just think that kind of thinking is going to leave the Panthers looking for a replacement at QB sooner than they'd like.

From Chud's perspective, he just wants to score as many points as possible and keep his job or get a promotion to a HC. If I were Jerry Richardson though, I'd want to make sure my franchise QB stays my franchise QB for a long, long time though. We've had 4 high quality running QB's in the last 15 years. McNair, Culpepper, McNabb and Vick. Only McNabb made it to 10 years. The high quality pocket passers seem to last about twice as many years.

Except that McNair made it to 13, and Vick was in jail wiping out 3 of his seasons.

Good grief. As I stated earlier in this thread, McNair played 13 years. The first two he basically didn't play. The last four he was the current equivalent of Donovan McNabb. He was a good football player for 7 years. Some of them were fantastic.

I thought by comparing Newton to McNair, Vick, McNabb and Culpepper, people would get the idea that I think Newton is an excellent player. Guess not. I also thought people would get the idea that taking more shots in this league leads to shorter careers. Guess not.

As for the Steve Young comparison, he never ran the ball more than 76 times, and most years he ran it 50-60 times. Tarkenton played in an entirely different era, (players were smaller and slower) and rant the ball on average 37.5 times a year. Newton has already ran it 40 times. Elway ran it over 60 times once in his career. (66). Brunell did it twice. (67, 80). Newton is on pace for 128 right now.

Interesting that Randall Cunningham was mentioned. He and Vick are the only one's that run the ball as much as Newton is on pace to do. (At least in the last 25 years.) Cunningham was given the role of starting QB in 1987, and ran the ball 76 times in 1987, 93 times in 1988, 104 times in 1989, and 118 times in 1990. He blew out his ACL in the first game of 1991, and wasn't ever a good QB for the Eagles again. He found one year of fantasy relevance in Minnesota in 1998, but got benched again in 1999.

Vick has played in 16 games once in his 8 full seasons. They also do not use him as their primary goal line back. As a matter of fact, they brought in Ronnie Brown to take that role.

There's plenty of coaches that use a goal line back instead of their main ball carrier. Many of them have stated they use the goal line back to cut down on the wear and tear of their lead back. So Newton is not only at risk to take hits in the pocket, and while scrambling in the open field, he's also taking shots while playing RB at the goal line.

One last thing. This is not a jealousy thing, nor am I concerned about Dwill or Stewart getting TDs. It just seems to me this is a terrible idea because it is adding unnecessary risk onto an already high risk position. Some teams have gone decades between getting a true franchise level QB. Newton has the look of one, and IMO the way they are using him will shorten his career considerably.

 

[FDC]

It just seems to me this is a terrible idea because it is adding unnecessary risk onto an already high risk position.

A high risk position, yes. But we haven't seen a QB with his physical stature. He is bigger than a lot of DEs and almost every LB on the field. Big Ben would be the most similar in terms of height and weight and he rarely misses games due to injury.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

It just seems to me this is a terrible idea because it is adding unnecessary risk onto an already high risk position.

A high risk position, yes. But we haven't seen a QB with his physical stature. He is bigger than a lot of DEs and almost every LB on the field. Big Ben would be the most similar in terms of height and weight and he rarely misses games due to injury.

Say what?Newton 6'5"248Culpepper 6'4"260McNabb 6'2" 240McNair 6'2"230 a bit smaller.

 

[two_dollars]

and even when people have tried to put a big hit on him it looks like they ran into a brick wall

The right guy hasn't hit him yet. Ray Lewis might break Cam in 2.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Regardless of who you own (I happen to own all 3 if anyone cares), the concept of the OP is saying is valid. While you try to win games, when you consider the team going almost nowhere, why put your franchise into more harms way they needed? You have two great RB's so why not use them? Now if the game is on the line and as an OC you feel the best way to score is to let Cam keep the ball then go ahead, but why so often? It is just dumb. For those who are saying he hasn't gotten hurt so what is the issue; I can only say that is a very poor thought process. Cam has been better than most people expected, why over use him for something that he is not needed for?

As an organization the goal is to get into the playoffs (first) and for Carolina they are better off saving Cam for when they need him and let him learn how to read defenses more and make calls at the LOS.

Then again, this is the same dumb organization that gave DWill a fortune when they had other holes and already had a good RB in Stewart. i could see bringing DWill back at a home town discount, but I don;t care well he does, it was a horrible signing that makes the team weaker because they don;t have money to spend where they need it.

 

[FDC]

I'm talking overall physical attributes. Daunte was probably the closest but he was no Cam. I don't think I'm stretching it here... Its glaringly obvious for most that Cam is the best athlete on the field even in the NFL. Its something that jumps just off the screen. Once in a decade/lifetime? type stuff. If he didn't wind up a QB he probably could be a TE, DE, LB etc. In other words, not the type of athletes that one would associate to a normal quarterback. Comparing injury risk is apples vs oranges.

 

[strong]

Real coaches don't spend their time worrying about a guy getting injured. You can't coach that way and be successful.

I'd agree with this premise for every other position than QB. Coaches spend countless hours trying to devise the best ways to keep them from getting hit. Look how the value of offensive lineman has soared. While I'd agree that Newton probably is less likely to take a huge hit at the goal line, I'd say he's much more likely to get hit by 2 or 3 guys at, or near the same time.

Look, I'm sure that most of you that are disagreeing with my assertion are Newton owners and are loving the extra TDs. I'm sure Chud's plan is sound from a X's and O's standpoint as well. I just think that kind of thinking is going to leave the Panthers looking for a replacement at QB sooner than they'd like.

From Chud's perspective, he just wants to score as many points as possible and keep his job or get a promotion to a HC. If I were Jerry Richardson though, I'd want to make sure my franchise QB stays my franchise QB for a long, long time though. We've had 4 high quality running QB's in the last 15 years. McNair, Culpepper, McNabb and Vick. Only McNabb made it to 10 years. The high quality pocket passers seem to last about twice as many years.

Except that McNair made it to 13, and Vick was in jail wiping out 3 of his seasons.

Good grief. As I stated earlier in this thread, McNair played 13 years. The first two he basically didn't play. The last four he was the current equivalent of Donovan McNabb. He was a good football player for 7 years. Some of them were fantastic.

I thought by comparing Newton to McNair, Vick, McNabb and Culpepper, people would get the idea that I think Newton is an excellent player. Guess not. I also thought people would get the idea that taking more shots in this league leads to shorter careers. Guess not.

As for the Steve Young comparison, he never ran the ball more than 76 times, and most years he ran it 50-60 times. Tarkenton played in an entirely different era, (players were smaller and slower) and rant the ball on average 37.5 times a year. Newton has already ran it 40 times. Elway ran it over 60 times once in his career. (66). Brunell did it twice. (67, 80). Newton is on pace for 128 right now.

Interesting that Randall Cunningham was mentioned. He and Vick are the only one's that run the ball as much as Newton is on pace to do. (At least in the last 25 years.) Cunningham was given the role of starting QB in 1987, and ran the ball 76 times in 1987, 93 times in 1988, 104 times in 1989, and 118 times in 1990. He blew out his ACL in the first game of 1991, and wasn't ever a good QB for the Eagles again. He found one year of fantasy relevance in Minnesota in 1998, but got benched again in 1999.

Vick has played in 16 games once in his 8 full seasons. They also do not use him as their primary goal line back. As a matter of fact, they brought in Ronnie Brown to take that role.

There's plenty of coaches that use a goal line back instead of their main ball carrier. Many of them have stated they use the goal line back to cut down on the wear and tear of their lead back. So Newton is not only at risk to take hits in the pocket, and while scrambling in the open field, he's also taking shots while playing RB at the goal line.

One last thing. This is not a jealousy thing, nor am I concerned about Dwill or Stewart getting TDs. It just seems to me this is a terrible idea because it is adding unnecessary risk onto an already high risk position. Some teams have gone decades between getting a true franchise level QB. Newton has the look of one, and IMO the way they are using him will shorten his career considerably.

check my last post. my main concern with comparing newton to those other rushing quarterbacks is that i'm not so sure cam takes as many dangerous hits in the pocket as those guys--at least so far.

but i definitely think comparisons to vick's injury riddled career is unfounded. vick gets crushed in and out of the pocket. even if vick weren't a scrambling quarterback, he'd still be a high injury risk because of how long he holds onto the ball.

 

[rickyg]

This thread has deteriorated from the op's Questioning the Carolina OC's commitment to running cam at the goal line to questioning their lack of running attempts from anywhere on the field. Me thinks there are some sore stewart/deangelo owners lurking in these replies lol.

As far as the goal line, is it not the ultimate goal for a football game to win by putting the ball in the endzone? And if you have a big, athletic, physcallly gifted freak of an athlete as a qb that has an unbelievable nose for the endzone and rushing abilities of a rb, why would you not want to use that weapon to score Tds??? Especially if his efficiency at the goal line is as good as cams is?

You can't not run cam in any given situation bc that would up the risk of injury. That's what makes him so special. That's why he went #1 overall. Take that away from him and you stymie greatness.

Should belicheck ask welker to not run routes over the middle to catch passes for fear of injury?

You let players like cam do what they do best. The rest is in g-ds hands.