Here is nice chunk of David's work.
http://forumimages.footballguys.com/forums/public/style_images/master/snapback.pnghttp://forums.footballguys.com/foru...=forums&section=findpost&pid=14661929' alt='a>'>David Yudkin, on 21 August 2012 - 09:46 PM, said:
Since LHUCKS had some concerns about Brady, I figured that I would throw some stuff out there.
Pats turnover differential in Games 1-8 last year: Even. Pats turnover differential in Games 9-16: +17. People ask why Brady may have had fewer passing attempts but more fantasy points in the latter half of the season, there's your answer. The Pats got the ball a ton and had better field position. Drives were shorter, so passes were not as big a requirement. And the difference in attempts was marginal. First 8 games: 321, last 8 games: 290. Oh, did I mention the Pats scored 291 points in the second half of the season (36.4 ppg)?
Brady also added 3 rushing TD at the end of the season for a total of 22 TD in the final 8 games.
One reason the Pats passed so much was that for the most part the defense was horrible. Even that might be too kind. Yes, they added some potentially decent rookies, but it's pretty much the same crew that looked lost last year and couldn't get off the field or stop the pass.
The running game this year is pretty much unproven. BJGE is gone and they did not really add anyone noteworthy. While Vereen and Ridley may be quicker, we have no idea how they will do. My initial case is inconsisently . . . and on same games ineffectively.
Instead of adding a real RB threat, the Pats instead added Lloyd, Gaffney, and Stallworth to give Brady even more weapons to throw to. None of this screams to me that the Pats will be run centric or they will rely on the pass less this year.
They also added Josh McDaniels, he of the 2007 season with 50 passes and a lethal air attack before it became common to throw the ball all over the yard. Yes, McDaniels uses running backs . . . to catch screens. And we saw how hard the Pats tried to score and score and score back then.
So heading into 2012, Brady now has elite TEs to throw two, a better WR corps, and guys now coming out of the backfield to catch the football.
Some will point to an (on paper) tough schedule against the pass this year. I agree, if in fact those oppoents really are tougher, Brady will see a drop off in production in those games. Let's also say he faces 8 Top pass defenses (like he did in 2009 or the 9 he faced in 2010). I checked and in the 29 games since 2007 where he faced Top 10 defenses, Brady averaged 253 yards and 2.25 TD per game. For argument's sake, let's say he repeats that perfromance level against those 8 Top 10 defenses. That would mean in 8 games he would total 2024/18.
Last year, against non-Top 10 defenses, Brady averaged 345/2.8 per game. While people may say that's insanely high, I ask why? The Pats have shown that they will commit to the pass and run up the score. Common sense says that the Pats should sit Brady with a 50 point lead . . . but they haven't ever done that. For whatever reason, BB seems inclined to keep the ball in the air and rack up the points. Again, for argument's sake, let's use the same numbers against not Top 10 defenses this year. That would be 2760/23.
Again, humor me by adding those two together. I get 4784/41. Now, mind you, that included factoring in having BJGE, but did not include having McDaniels, Lloyd, Gaffney, or Stallworth. IMO, I would say all of that leads me to think Brady would be north of those numbers . . . and that already accounts for playing 8 Top 10 defenses into the equation (based on how he's done recently against top passing defenses).
The only fly in the ointmenthere is if the Pats have long term OL injuries or issues. I have been following this situation. mankins is back in camp and is said to be a beast. He spent his entire rehab working on his upper body and is now a mountain man and stronger than ever. For now, he has slowed some in his manual dexterity and range, but front to back he is fine and added a ton of muscle. Koppen is back and doing well. Vollmer is coming back this week and shows signs of being able to contribute right away, although back injuries are a bit hard to predict as to when they will flare up and when they won't. From the sound of it, Waters is expected back right before the season starts. He didn't show up uto camp until 9/4 last year, at this stage I would consider it a surprise if he didn't come back. From what I have heard/seen, Solder has been holding his own, and paired with Mankins should be more than adequate and will potentially minimize the loss of Matt Light. The only bad thing I have seen about the OL is that Marcus Cannon has been overmatched trying to play RT and they have been trying to coach him up and work on his technique. It sounds like he is getting overmatched by big D-lineman and pushed around a lot. Dan Connolly has been playing the role of super sub and is not a liability no matter where he lines up. In the main, the Pats are expecting a full OL with some depth to be ready by Opening Day.
All in all, I don't see anything not to like about the Pats passing game this year. Some people have suggested that since Brady hit 35 suddenly he will be frail, lose his mojo, not have as much on the ball, will be more apt to get injured, and the like. I would say if there were signs of that I would agree, but he had a pretty decent year at 34
