Carolina and Minnesota (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

Okay, I look at these things every week when I write For The Win, and I could not help but notice the big money lines available for two teams:

Carolina is +900 to win outright against the Steelers in Pittsburgh

Minnesota is +800 in Philly to win outright.

(Courtesy of VegasInsider.com)

Do you dare play either one on the off-chance that one of them wins?

I think MIN is actually more feasible, but I wanted some other thoughts as to who might also share this opinion.

(Not advocating playing with the mortgage here of course, but the chances of going 8-9x - or even 8x9=72x - can make for a very Merry Christmas)....

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Playing those dogs are asking for a lump of coal in your Christmas stocking.

 

[NorrisB]

Pitt beating Carolina 9 times out of ten seems about right. Philly beating Minnesota 8 times out of 10, I think I like Minnesota there

 

[Breesisdaman]

I might take a gamble on Minny depending on the starting QB. I might have to hedge my bets though.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

The Vikings' safeties are terrible...Desean will eat them alive.

 

[Modog814]

I think from a Expected Value standpoint, they're both worth a play. It's the NFL and whether anyone wants to admit it or not, no game is ever really a cake walk. Both Carolina and Minnesota appear to be mismatched here, but a few timely plays, a key turnover here or there, or a big special teams play can easily lead to an underdog win.

I think both teams are closer to a +400 Underdog (about 20% chance of winning). That said, even getting twice as much as I think you should be getting, you're still going to lose nearly most of the time.

I think they're worth a wager as a fraction (I'll say 1/5) of what you'd normally pay, if you do believe have about a 20% chance of winning or more.

 

[NoCheese]

For some reason, I think Carolina is the better play but both may not even be worth 8:1 or 9:1.

 

[Modog814]

For some reason, I think Carolina is the better play but both may not even be worth 8:1 or 9:1.

I agree in that I think Carolina actually has the better chance to pull an upset. Pittsburgh has really struggled getting the ball into the endzone (4 Offensive TD's in the last 4 games). Pitt seems to be struggling at home, 4-3 record. And there defense just isn't the same without Polamalu (who's been ruled out tonight). I think this game will probably be closer than many expect, especially since Carolina has rediscovered how to run the ball (400+yds in last 2 games, 530+ in last 3). I think if the score ends up a blowout, it'll be due to mistakes at the end of the game leading to short or even defensive scores. I wouldn't be totaly shocked to see Carolina have the ball in the final minutes with a chance to tie or win. Now, whether they actually score is a different question.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I think from a Expected Value standpoint, they're both worth a play. It's the NFL and whether anyone wants to admit it or not, no game is ever really a cake walk. Both Carolina and Minnesota appear to be mismatched here, but a few timely plays, a key turnover here or there, or a big special teams play can easily lead to an underdog win. I think both teams are closer to a +400 Underdog (about 20% chance of winning). That said, even getting twice as much as I think you should be getting, you're still going to lose nearly most of the time. I think they're worth a wager as a fraction (I'll say 1/5) of what you'd normally pay, if you do believe have about a 20% chance of winning or more.

That's about where I come down on these two as well. I can see a scenario for each to win the game - although it is pretty unlikely.CAR - Jonathan Stewart breaks off 1-2 long TDs and they win the turnover battle. Big Ben gets hit by Charles Johnson early.MIN - ADP and Favre play and the game gets out of hand early. Philly's lack of DBs (Nate Allen out, A Samuel will be avoided if he plays, Patterson has looked terrible) is tested. VShiancoe runs wild (PHI can't stop TEs). ADP runs over the backup MLB (Chaney).Stranger things have happened. Who had Cleveland over NE by 20?

 

[NorrisB]

What is 800 in terms of odds is that like 8-1?

 

[Modog814]

What is 800 in terms of odds is that like 8-1?

Exactly

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

....

CAR - Jonathan Stewart breaks off 1-2 long TDs and they win the turnover battle. Big Ben gets hit by Charles Johnson early.

.....

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I don't think betting random longshots is ever a good idea in any form of wagering.

if you wanted to make a case for points, that might be different, but those games deserve big money lines.

in my opinion, anyway.

if you want long odds on a 'very merry xmas' play the lottery -- it pays more.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

jeff -- if you're really into this, maybe you have the stats --- what were the records of the higher money line underdogs last year by amount?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

jeff -- if you're really into this, maybe you have the stats --- what were the records of the higher money line underdogs last year by amount?

Not sure what the question is here... can you try again?I'd have to dig, I don't have those types of stats at the ready.Clearly Carolina should have been +9000.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I googled this site:

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_odds.shtml

Week 1 2009

Detroit Lions [+750] at New Orleans Saints

Kansas City Chiefs [+625] at Baltimore Ravens

Buf @NE +675

Week 3, 2009

Cleveland At Baltimore +$600

Week 5, 2009

At Philadelphia -15.5 Tampa Bay 42 -$1300 +$900

At NY Giants -15.5 Oakland 38 -$1300 +$900

Week 6, 2009

At Pittsburgh -14 Cleveland 38 -$1150 +$800

At Green Bay -14 Detroit 48 -$1000 +$700

Philadelphia -14.5 At Oakland 40.5 -$1000 +$700

Week 7, 2009

Indianapolis -14 At St. Louis 45 -$1100 +$800

New England -15.5 Tampa Bay

(At London) 44.5 -$1300 +$900

Week 8, 2009

At San Diego -16 Oakland 41.5 -$1600 +$1000

Week 10, 2009

At Minnesota -17 Detroit 47.5 -$1700 +$1100

New Orleans -14 At St. Louis 50.5 -$900 +$650

Week 12, 2009

At Dallas -13.5 Oakland 40.5 -$800 +$600

Week 13, 2009

At Pittsburgh -15 Oakland 37 -$1300 +$850

At Cincinnati -13.5 Detroit 42 -$800 +$600

San Diego -14 At Cleveland 42.5 -$850 +$600

Week 14, 2009

At Baltimore -14 Detroit 40 -$900 +$600

At Tennessee -14 St. Louis 40 -$800 +$600

Week 15, 2009

Arizona -14 At Detroit 47 -$1000 +$700

Houston -14 At St. Louis 43.5 -$1000 +$700

At Denver -14 Oakland 37 -$1000 +$700

Week 16, 2009

At Green Bay -13.5 Seattle 43.5 -$850 +$600

At New Orleans -14 Tampa Bay 48.5 -$850 +$600

At Arizona -16.5 St. Louis 43.5 -$1300 +$850

At San Francisco -14 Detroit 41 -$900 +$650

Week 3, 2010

Buffalo At New England +$725

Week 4, 2010

At Green Bay -14.5 Detroit 46 -$1200 +$850

Week 6, 2010

At Pittsburgh -14 Cleveland 37.5 -$1100 +$750

Week 11, 2010

Baltimore -13 At Carolina 37 -$900 +$650

Week 15, 2010

At New England -14.5 Green Bay 43.5 -$1000 +$700

all +600 or higher underdogs the last 2 years (reg season, week 17 excluded)

winning dogs bolded

total 32, if I counted right, with these 4 scores:

Philadelphia -14.5 At Oakland 40.5 -$1000 +$700

At Pittsburgh -15 Oakland 37 -$1300 +$850

At Denver -14 Oakland 37 -$1000 +$700

At New Orleans -14 Tampa Bay 48.5 -$850 +$600 -- week 16, I think NO had everything wrapped?

not likin' this strategy.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I googled this site:

http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_odds.shtml

Week 1 2009

Detroit Lions [+750] at New Orleans Saints

Kansas City Chiefs [+625] at Baltimore Ravens

Buf @NE +675

Week 3, 2009

Cleveland At Baltimore +$600

Week 5, 2009

At Philadelphia -15.5 Tampa Bay 42 -$1300 +$900

At NY Giants -15.5 Oakland 38 -$1300 +$900

Week 6, 2009

At Pittsburgh -14 Cleveland 38 -$1150 +$800

At Green Bay -14 Detroit 48 -$1000 +$700

Philadelphia -14.5 At Oakland 40.5 -$1000 +$700

Week 7, 2009

Indianapolis -14 At St. Louis 45 -$1100 +$800

New England -15.5 Tampa Bay

(At London) 44.5 -$1300 +$900

Week 8, 2009

At San Diego -16 Oakland 41.5 -$1600 +$1000

Week 10, 2009

At Minnesota -17 Detroit 47.5 -$1700 +$1100

New Orleans -14 At St. Louis 50.5 -$900 +$650

Week 12, 2009

At Dallas -13.5 Oakland 40.5 -$800 +$600

Week 13, 2009

At Pittsburgh -15 Oakland 37 -$1300 +$850

At Cincinnati -13.5 Detroit 42 -$800 +$600

San Diego -14 At Cleveland 42.5 -$850 +$600

Week 14, 2009

At Baltimore -14 Detroit 40 -$900 +$600

At Tennessee -14 St. Louis 40 -$800 +$600

Week 15, 2009

Arizona -14 At Detroit 47 -$1000 +$700

Houston -14 At St. Louis 43.5 -$1000 +$700

At Denver -14 Oakland 37 -$1000 +$700

Week 16, 2009

At Green Bay -13.5 Seattle 43.5 -$850 +$600

At New Orleans -14 Tampa Bay 48.5 -$850 +$600

At Arizona -16.5 St. Louis 43.5 -$1300 +$850

At San Francisco -14 Detroit 41 -$900 +$650

Week 3, 2010

Buffalo At New England +$725

Week 4, 2010

At Green Bay -14.5 Detroit 46 -$1200 +$850

Week 6, 2010

At Pittsburgh -14 Cleveland 37.5 -$1100 +$750

Week 11, 2010

Baltimore -13 At Carolina 37 -$900 +$650

Week 15, 2010

At New England -14.5 Green Bay 43.5 -$1000 +$700

all +600 or higher underdogs the last 2 years (reg season, week 17 excluded)

winning dogs bolded

total 32, if I counted right, with these 4 scores:

Philadelphia -14.5 At Oakland 40.5 -$1000 +$700

At Pittsburgh -15 Oakland 37 -$1300 +$850

At Denver -14 Oakland 37 -$1000 +$700

At New Orleans -14 Tampa Bay 48.5 -$850 +$600 -- week 16, I think NO had everything wrapped?

not likin' this strategy.

To be fair, I think if you are correct it would be this:28 losses: -$2800

4 wins: $2850

So you'd be up $50.

Not exactly Merry Christmas money, but not a loss.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Well I hope some of you took this to heart.

 

[duaneok66]

Well I hope some of you took this to heart.

tonight's game results gives me room to pause: I don't see how you guys bet on football . . .my television would be broken if I had bet on Philly tonight . . .

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

 

[Raider Nation]

Well I hope some of you took this to heart.

Did you actually play it? Be honest...

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Well I hope some of you took this to heart.

Did you actually play it? Be honest...

Wasn't able to, but I would have for 1/2 unit each, sure. Wasn't in Las Vegas this week.Really liked MIN +14 and saw them as big play possibility.Should've been more assertive on the Lexycast about this one.