Carson Palmer, QB, Oakland Raiders (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Carson Palmer, QB, Oakland Raiders

Player Page Link: Carson Palmer Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Palmer basically came in "off the couch" and averaged a whopping 293 yards per game in 9 starts and a healthy 8.6 YPA. He didn't have the benefit of a healthy Jacoby Ford or a complementary stud RB in Darren McFadden. He's still only 32 years old, but the perception is he's been around forever, yet QB's like Drew Brees (33) and Peyton Manning (36) get the benefit of the doubt. In his recent interviews, he seems really fired up to get on with the preseason and has been working out with the receiving crew over the winter in offseason workouts.

Out is Hue Jackson who maneuvered the trade for Palmer, and in new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, who is bringing with him Houston's version of the west coast offense and zone blocking system. It's not a dink and dunk system, but It's fair to expect more short to intermediary routes this year as well to go with some of the deep shots the Raiders are known for. I expect Palmer's yardage totals to go up but the YPA to go down a tad. Also, the new offensive scheme is going to make a beast out of Darren McFadden, who should be the focal point, just as it was for Arian Foster in Houston. Rookie wideout Juron Criner is going to be a new weapon running possession routes in this new system, adding to the mix of a talented crew of DHB, Moore, Ford who will spread the field. Raider TE's are a mixed bag, not worthy of mention for fantasy purposes, but then again Palmer doesn't really throw to them much anyway.

Projecting out Palmer's stats from last year and adjusting for lowered YPA and increased red zone opportunities, I get the following projection (which I think is conservative):

att/com/yard/TD/Int's

340/530/4150/28/16

I think he makes for a strong QB2 to be paired with a middling QB1, and he himself has potential for QB1 upside, provided the new defense struggles and hes forced to air it out to keep up on the scoreboard. I think he's value for his current ADP.

 

[LawFitz]

Agreed that he's sorely undervalued right now.

Tons of offensive weapons, already solid OL was upgraded in the offseason, potentially bad defense, full offseason.

4000+ yds, 31 TD, 20 int

 

[5Rings]

I'm high on Palmer this year too.

+Full offseason

+talented WR corps

+healthy DMC

+solid OL

+a subpar defense

-Greg Knapp (not a fan)

378-600, 4100, 19td - 17 int.

 

[Bayhawks]

I don't see Palmer being a top-10 QB, but he will (IMO) be a decent FF QB2 in 2012 (in leagues that don't penalize INTS).

544 attempts, 337 completions, 3950 passing yards, 27 TD, 18 INT

 

[LawFitz]

I'm high on Palmer this year too.

378-600, 4100, 19td - 17 int.

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't see Palmer being a top-10 QB, but he will (IMO) be a decent FF QB2 in 2012 (in leagues that don't penalize INTS).544 attempts, 337 completions, 3950 passing yards, 27 TD, 18 INT

Palmer was the #10 fantasy QB from Week 9 on in terms of fantasy ppg. I am curious why he would not be much of a candidate to be in the Top 10 this year when he literally came in from the street and did very well last year. I realize last year is last year, but wouldn't he stand a chance to do as well or better with a full training and more of a chance to absorb the entire playbook?

 

[5Rings]

I'm high on Palmer this year too.

378-600, 4100, 19td - 17 int.

I see his total being closer to 19 than to 31. I think Palmer and the Oak passing game will continue to stall in the red zone in 2012.

 

[Bayhawks]

I don't see Palmer being a top-10 QB, but he will (IMO) be a decent FF QB2 in 2012 (in leagues that don't penalize INTS).544 attempts, 337 completions, 3950 passing yards, 27 TD, 18 INT

Palmer was the #10 fantasy QB from Week 9 on in terms of fantasy ppg. I am curious why he would not be much of a candidate to be in the Top 10 this year when he literally came in from the street and did very well last year. I realize last year is last year, but wouldn't he stand a chance to do as well or better with a full training and more of a chance to absorb the entire playbook?

By my main league scoring (which is fairly standard, I think, except for no negatives for INTS), he was the 11th QB from week 9 on. But that's not the point.Based on my projections, I have Palmer as QB20. I have guys like Flynn, Freeman, and RGIII ahead of him right now, so depending on what I read/hear/see between here and the beginning of the season, that might change, but I don't see him jumping up 10 spots. Again, this is based on my personal projections, so there's a (very good) chance that I don't know what I'm talking about

 

[FF Ninja]

Palmer is an interesting case for 2012. He is one of several players that screams value to me and will make it hard to justify taking a QB in the top 12. Roethlisberger (QB15), Palmer (QB20), Fitzpatrick (QB21), and Flynn (QB24) are my favorite value plays at first glance. Last season Palmer was thrown into the fire via midseason trade after not participating in football activities all year, but put up impressive totals after just two weeks of learning the system. His last 9 games extrapolate to a 16 game season of:

546 att, 340 comp (62.2%), 8.6 ypa, 23 TD, 23 INT

8.6 ypa was by far a career high. Given his career average and the new offensive system, I think a solid bump down is prudent. However, with the departure of Michael Bush and DMC's fragile nature, he could easily see 550 attempts this coming season. I really like his WR trio of Moore, DHB, and Ford. DMC is a good receiver, too. Palmer played without Ford and DMC for most of those 9 games. No matter how I look at the situation, I can't fathom him finishing as low as his current ADP.

550 att [x 61% = 336 comp] x 7.5 ypa = 4125 yards, 28 TD, 18 INT, negligible rushing stats

 

[Clifford]

I don't see Palmer being a top-10 QB, but he will (IMO) be a decent FF QB2 in 2012 (in leagues that don't penalize INTS).

544 attempts, 337 completions, 3950 passing yards, 27 TD, 18 INT

Palmer was the #10 fantasy QB from Week 9 on in terms of fantasy ppg. I am curious why he would not be much of a candidate to be in the Top 10 this year when he literally came in from the street and did very well last year. I realize last year is last year, but wouldn't he stand a chance to do as well or better with a full training and more of a chance to absorb the entire playbook?

By my main league scoring (which is fairly standard, I think, except for no negatives for INTS), he was the 11th QB from week 9 on. But that's not the point.Based on my projections, I have Palmer as QB20. I have guys like Flynn, Freeman, and RGIII ahead of him right now, so depending on what I read/hear/see between here and the beginning of the season, that might change, but I don't see him jumping up 10 spots.

Again, this is based on my personal projections, so there's a (very good) chance that I don't know what I'm talking about

Care to explain what you are looking at that makes two (projected) first-time starters and a QB who severely regressed last year perform better than a seasoned vet who was top 10 in ppg scoring last year?I see a good year for Carson 4200/26/13.

 

[az_prof]

I don't know where the kool aid came from, but people appear to be drunk on the Palmer kool aid.

He has not had a studly year since 2007-2008, before his serious injury. The guy has never been the same. Last season he threw for a high ypg number but it was not a full season and most of those games were without McFadden. Doesn't it seem likely that the team will emphasize the run more with McFadden in the backfield, at least as long as DMAC is healthy? He also had MORE INTS than TDs last year--a clear sign that he was forcing the ball and that those passing yards are going to have to come down.

Let's assume he continues to pass at the same rate of 32/game.

Where last year was an anomaly was in yards per attempt. Last season was by far the highest ypa, 8.4, that he has ever achieved. That screams out--revert to the mean. His career ypa is 7.2. Let's give him an uptick on that, assuming that Oakland likes to air it out, which accounts for the long plays. We'll assume 7.4 ypa.

512 attempts at 7.4 ypa, comes to 3788 yards

Last year he had 13 TDs on 10 games, an average of 1.3. I think with McFadden back, and passing less, but more strategically, and with McFadden catching a few TDs that Bush couldn't, his TD total will go up. Let's say, 1.5/game instead of 1.3. That would come to 24 TDs, which is very close to his career average of 1.56 TDs/season.

512 passing attempts; 3788 yards; 24 TDs; 20 INTs.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't know where the kool aid came from, but people appear to be drunk on the Palmer kool aid.

He has not had a studly year since 2007-2008, before his serious injury. The guy has never been the same. Last season he threw for a high ypg number but it was not a full season and most of those games were without McFadden. Doesn't it seem likely that the team will emphasize the run more with McFadden in the backfield, at least as long as DMAC is healthy? He also had MORE INTS than TDs last year--a clear sign that he was forcing the ball and that those passing yards are going to have to come down. I don't see him attempting 32 passes a game, but probably closer to 27. His career ypa is 8.4, a better measure than ten games last season. That comes to 3628 yards.

Last year he had 13 TDs on 10 games, an average of 1.3. I think with McFadden back, and passing less, but more strategically, and with McFadden catching a few TDs that Bush couldn't, his TD total will go up. Let's say, 1.5/game instead of 1.3. That would come to 24 TDs, which is very close to his career average of 1.56 TDs/season.

432 passing attempts; 3628 yards; 24 TDs; 20 INTs.

Is this a joke? Only the Broncos attempted less than 27 attempts per game last year (26.8). The Raiders don't have the personnel to pull off that kind of offense. DMC will snap by week 5 if they try to grind out every game. The median passing att/gm was 34.3 last year. 34.3 x 16 = 549 attempts.

 

[az_prof]

I don't know where the kool aid came from, but people appear to be drunk on the Palmer kool aid.

He has not had a studly year since 2007-2008, before his serious injury. The guy has never been the same. Last season he threw for a high ypg number but it was not a full season and most of those games were without McFadden. Doesn't it seem likely that the team will emphasize the run more with McFadden in the backfield, at least as long as DMAC is healthy? He also had MORE INTS than TDs last year--a clear sign that he was forcing the ball and that those passing yards are going to have to come down. I don't see him attempting 32 passes a game, but probably closer to 27. His career ypa is 8.4, a better measure than ten games last season. That comes to 3628 yards.

Last year he had 13 TDs on 10 games, an average of 1.3. I think with McFadden back, and passing less, but more strategically, and with McFadden catching a few TDs that Bush couldn't, his TD total will go up. Let's say, 1.5/game instead of 1.3. That would come to 24 TDs, which is very close to his career average of 1.56 TDs/season.

432 passing attempts; 3628 yards; 24 TDs; 20 INTs.

Is this a joke? Only the Broncos attempted less than 27 attempts per game last year (26.8). The Raiders don't have the personnel to pull off that kind of offense. DMC will snap by week 5 if they try to grind out every game. The median passing att/gm was 34.3 last year. 34.3 x 16 = 549 attempts.

Good point. I am going to back and modify my analysis.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Good analysis guys. I believe that Oakland will try to run more though teams always say that. I'll go with 3900 yards and 25 TDs which should be a good value at his current ADP of QB18. His ADP is rising though +7