Chaos Commish
Footballguy
If accuracy is the goal, a late November mock is an exercise in futility. That's understood in advance so perhaps spare me that grievance? Thanks.
If an early peak at possibilities, an introduction to and/or conversation about future NFL players, and an early discussion about team needs interests you, then this thread could work. My mocks change right up to the week of the draft. It's the learning process through constant correction that helps fuel my interest in the topic so-- team homers and college junkies-- all criticisms and suggestions are appreciated.
You may hate my selection order. Sorry. The first ten are all very near their current order. I fiddled with the 5-6 and 6-5 teams a little, and messed with playoff outcomes. It's all up in the air and open for input.
About next April's draft. I am mostly unimpressed with the depth and overall talent. The mid and late first round includes talent comparable to last year's early third round, imo. A year ago, Hank Baskett made round 1 of my first mock then proceeded to go undrafted (and fell out of my mocks too). He's a nice talent and a good example of last year's depth. Similar issues exist only at WR this year, and the lack of depth elsewhere should make mistakes like the one above less likely. The elite talent is quality for any year. The dropoff is early and deep.
Everyone seems to love these wide receivers and I am no different (not just the hyped top guns but a full top ten of big-time talent). I am going with Sidney Rice's current stance though. That's a tough hit to the elite depth at WR. He is not in this mock. He seems "reasonably" sincere in his committment to Spurrier for another season. I think it's 55-45 he stays, so whereas I usually stick the underclassmen in expecting them to declare, I'm going with Rice's early word in this early mock. Deep down I think Sidney recognizes a first round guarantee this year compared to a great shot at top 5 next year makes staying good risk management. And he says he's having fun and the Gamecocks can make a run.
I also like the QBs a lot and had to work to get four of them in this mock. A few intriguing and eligible QB talents whom I once predicted would be in this draft will not, but the QB talent and depth is still impressive. If you hate my decisions on QB team placement, oh well. I prolly got 'em wrong but dern it, 4 or 5 of them are going in the first round somehow some way. Any team's fans assigned a QB after Quinn are probably going to gripe. The real draft order will go a long way to sorting this out. I certainly could be wrong about these numbers, but I think 7 or more QBs from this class will be starting in the NFL eventually-- seriously.
After a couple gifted underclassman RBs I am not impressed with the rest of this group. Some solid TEs help make this shallow draft decent for long-term fantasy purposes-- WRs+++, QBs+++, TEs++, RBs- unless you get Peterson, Lynch (maybe Bush) or lucky. I do have a sleeper RB or two, but that'll have to wait.
The DTs and DEs tell a similar story. Some nice ones and a cliff, though more DEs are emerging than I expected. There isn't half as many quality LBs as last year, but the top tier is comparable. The DBs are solid and respectably deep, but again, nothing like last year's mob. The OL talent is shallow, decent at the top, but mostly unimpressive, sorry. If you're dreaming of rebuilding an OL through this draft, you probably are dreaming. There's a few nice players, but understand if I don't see your team addressing pressing OL needs in round one (later is probably more likely this year). I have all OLs but #1 generally downgraded, especially Sam Baker and Levi Brown who have not played up to their press clippings. However, I do agree the lack of significant depth elsewhere could launch a few more OLs into the first round.
* designates underclassmen
I'm barely commenting on these draftees, so feel free to ask questions or share insights. It's very early yet. Off we go...
1.01 Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
Thomas is a great prospect with franchise LT potential. The Cards are a solid OL away from a dominant offense. Thomas should be available anywhere in the first four picks so regardless of where AZ lands he should be their target. I alphabetized the teams with worst records. AZ goes first, thus so does Thomas.
1.02 Detroit Lions - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
Quinn's had an up and down season but the final numbers are ridiculous 35 tds, 5 picks, 63% completions... nice. Kitna, McCown and Orlovsky? I know they all have their fans, but meh. Quinn is better than any and he'll sell tickets. After the Harrington saga, this team deserves a franchise QB. Quinn is exactly that.
1.03 Oakland Raiders - Adrian Peterson*, RB, Oklahoma
I expect some readers will want me to switch 3 and 4 (most mocks do). I'm expecting Peterson to be top three and ahead of Calvin Johnson regardless of how the final order falls. I could see him 1st or 2nd, Johnson 2nd or 3rd (both before Quinn and Thomas). Raider fans may be screaming for an OL here. Uh, there isn't one worth it. Trading down could be an option. But Peterson is a force of nature who can instantly breathe life into that offense with or without Moss. I thought hard about another QB here and later mocks may reflect that. Brohm or Russell could skyrocket in this draft.
1.04 Cleveland Browns - Calvin Johnson*, WR, Georgia Tech
The Browns have a great young receiver and many needs elsewhere, but you don't pass up on a sure thing with Johnson's potential. What a combo he and Edwards could be. Imagine if the OL stays healthy and reaches it's potential. Watch out for the Browns. I still think Romeo and Phil know what they're doing. The OL losses were too much too overcome and the D is still a work in progress (for later rounds). Calvin Johnson is elite. He falls no farther than this.
1.05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
One could argue that Adams ends the elite "must draft" best available player talent in this draft. The above are probably the top five players. Simeon Rice isn't getting any younger and Adams has been as good as any DE in the country for two straight years. He's had a great season and made himself a rich man. Personally, I think the 4 above him are clearly separated from the pack and the deep DE pool makes this a dicey pick.
1.06 Houston Texans - LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Glenn Earl and CC Brown? Landry is a needed upgrade. I fell in love with a DB to be drafted later and set out to be a contrarian and argue him as the best DB in the country. So, I watched Landry and others very closely. Landry is amazing. Hits harder and more often than his brother who is starting for the Ravens as a rookie. Runs much faster, makes plays all over the field, intense ballhawk. Scary how good he could be. He's a can't miss star at safety and Houston's defense is still it's biggest problem.
1.07 Pittsburgh Steelers - Alan Branch*, DT, Michigan
Sorry EG, I had to chuckle when I saw the Steelers possibly this high, so I went with it. This is still a team without major weaknesses. I debated others before deciding on Branch. The guy's been a beast in all but the Buckeye game where he was doubled all day. He just ragdolls OLs-- a huge part of Michigan's success. At 6-6 330 he is way more than quick enough to play alongside Hampton and make Kimo a distant memory.
1.08 Washington Redskins - Tedd Ginn, Jr.*, WR, Ohio State
If I fire up the draft blog after the holidays, Ginn will get special attention. The myths need debunking. The player needs better understanding. One myth floating about is that Ginn has bad hands (he had a couple drops against Michigan). OSU HC Jim Tressell says he has the best hands on the team. I have seen enough snatches of difficult to catch balls to have no concerns about his hands. Who knows what the Skins do with a high draft pick if they don't trade it? Gibbs has won a Super Bowl with smaller speedy WRs. Ginn fits the mold, and is a very special talent.
1.09 Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch*, RB, California
I can already hear the complaint, "This isn't fantasy football, it's the real NFL." Well this year, which isn't spectacular by NFL measures, is pretty cool for fantasy purposes. I'm generally the last one to emphasize offensive skill positions in a mock draft, but Lynch is a freak and the Packers are a prime candidate to snatch him up. There isn't much invested in Morency and Herron. Green could fill a Dillon role to Lynch's Maroney. Lynch is better than Maroney, imo btw. "I" would sure draft him if I was GB, and I'd do so knowing needed DBs run pretty deep in this draft.
1.10 Tennessee Titans - Dwayne Jarrett*, WR, Southern California
Yes another skill position. Jarrett's stock has been up and down since early this season. It is peaking since the Notre Dame performance but post season testing may downgrade it. I doubt the braintrust in Tennessee has moved him up or down a bit as they know him well. Vince needs help and Jarrett seems like a good match (understanding opinions on these WRs vary).
1.11 Buffalo Bills - Brian Brohm*, QB, Louisville
I know, another offensive ball handler type guy. I know. Losman is coming around and it's still too early to give up on him. Holcomb is around to pick up messes and Nall has starter potential of his own. It's not exactly like Detroit because of JP's youth, but still, this team has been too long without a franchise grade QB, and that is exactly what Brohm is. He may be better than Quinn who I think is better than Leinart. It's not like Buffalo is predictable and does what the masses expect. Will 7 of the first 11 be skill position players? Probably not. Odds are against it, but it's possible and more importantly these are the best available players, imo.
1.12 Atlanta Falcons - Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
Currently there's a plaintive wail crying for Falcon WRs to catch the expertly thrown passes of Michael Vick. At 1.12 there will very likely be an elite WR available, but not in this mock unless you love the pitcher from Notre Dame. Anyway, Lelie, White, Jenkins... they still have excellent potential. It's not their most pressing need. Able bodies pressuring the QB is the biggest problem I see in Atlanta. Moses at his best plays like Abraham. He has not been at his best this year and rumors abound about his uninspired effort. Nevertheless, he was once considered the possible #1 overall. He is a freak athlete. He could fall more, but he should stop the bleeding in workouts, and the local hero thing works for me before a longer fall.
1.13 Miami Dolphins - Darrelle Revis*, CB, Pittsburgh
Another team whining for WR. There seems to be a consensus among the online drafnik/guru/experts that Leon Hall is the #1 CB. I disagree. Hall has played great, looks great, may be great, but no doubt he benefits from tremendous surrounding talent. I've seen Revis do things that are above and beyond the rest of the corners in this draft. He's a great talent. When all the poking and prodding is done, I expect him to go very high. If not, he'll be a steal. A diehard Dolphin draft expert is assuring me they will go DL here. He assured me after the mock was done, so I'm not changing now. OL is just as likely perhaps? Revis rocks.
1.14 Minnesota Vikings - Michael Griffin, S, Texas
The Vikings lead the league in run defense because they are second to last against the pass. Why bother running? What's the deal Vike fans? Smoot and Winfield are solid. Nevertheless, Griffin comes out with an exceptional grade. Sharper is aging. Smith has his moments but isn't a long-term answer at safety. Griffin makes sense to me at this point. He's a borderline elite talent reminiscent of a young Sharper.
1.15 San Francisco 49ers - Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Walt Harris has had a nice season in SF, but he's too old to be a starting corner. SF needs a future opposite Spencer, and Hall (should he last this long and be up to the hype) would be a great addition to a vastly improved team. I confess to not being as high on Hall as most. Anybody catch him against the Buckeyes? Uh... I understand Ginn and Gonzo are excellent, but come on, make some plays. So he makes the top 15 based primarily on 9er needs and "other" opinions which I respect.
1.16 Philadelphia Eagles - Paul Posluzny, LB, Penn State
Get used to seeing this pick in just about every mock. That probably means it won't happen, but the Eagles need to solve their LB problems. Posluzny would have been a first rounder last year if he declared and was healthy. He has made a seamless recovery and staying in school hasn't cost him a bunch of money. Good for him. Nice player where ever he ends up. Should have a long productive career.
1.17 St Louis Rams - Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi
The Rams are terrible against the run. Witherspoon was a step in the right direction, but they still need sure tacklers. A better tackler than Willis cannot be found in this draft. He's a meaner, bigger hitting version of DeMeco Ryans without the incredible intangibles, though his intangibles are good. He's a tackle machine who many thought could have been a first rounder last year. Ryans opened the 2nd round as a steal and Willis had an almost identical grade. He also gives the Rams the option to move Spoon to WLB as Willis is capable of playing any LB slot in the Rams scheme. They could go for a DT to plug their soft underbelly, but Wroten is going to be good and the DTs below do not grade like Willis, imo.
1.18 New York Jets - LaMarr Woodley, DE, Michigan
Woodley is the real deal. What a great season he had. Projecting here as a 3/4 OLB capable of playing 4-3 DE in the Jets hybrid schemes, this seems like a nice fit. The Jets are impressively headed in the right direction. An explosive pass rusher like Woodley is one of the missing ingredients. Best to nab him here and worry about the other pieces later.
1.19 Jacksonville Jaguars - JaMarcus Russell*, QB, LSU
Russell may be the most polarizing player in this draft. What is it with black QBs? Silly if you ask me. This kid has the strongest arm in the history of civilization. He can put the ball in orbit round the moon and land it back in the stadium. He's also a solid leader and a tough competitor. His decision making has been a little sketchy here and there, but that can usually be said of any QB in the SEC. I think he's a freak, a stud, better than Leftwich or Garrard, as good as Quinn and Brohm, just different. Completing 68% of his passes in that conference as an underclassman... are you kidding me? Auburn and Florida got the best of him early, but since Oct 7th he's been the best performing QB in the country. He could go earlier in this draft.
1.20 New York Giants - Glenn Dorsey*, DT, LSU
The Giants are tough to predict. Statistically they are only top 10 running the ball. The interior DL is improved, still not very good, though it has dominating moments. Pierce could use help at LB (depth and health are issues), and the secondary remains mediocre. I know they found a nice DT late in the draft last year, but it seems to me they need to keep pressing that spot. Like they did DE for a couple years. They will eventually find what they're looking for. Dorsey may not declare, but if he did it would be because the Draft Advisory Board told him what I believe-- first rounder, no doubt. So believing that means I expect him to come out even though most are currently expecting the opposite.
1.21 Kansas City Chiefs - Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio State
When I think of Pitcock, I think of Tamba Hali in a DTs body. The Chiefs were very happy to land Hali around this spot last year. I think they stay focussed on the same issues and bring fresh meat and legs into the middle of the D-line. Pitcock is generally regarded as the best senior DT in the draft. He's always been a rock against the run and this year he's unleashed a fierce pass rush for the nation's top team.
1.22 Denver Broncos - Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame
Abiamiri's career has been a poor man's version of Mario Williams' days at NC State. He's great against bad teams, piles up numbers, then disappears into the shadows of his teammates against better competition. Sometimes he flashes amazing ability. The intangibles are solid. The measureables should be impressive. Shanahan loves speed and it's time he find some for his defensive line. There's a couple DEs I like better but I'm anticipating measureables separating Abiamiri. I could be wrong about this one. Imagine that? Tamba wha... ?
1.23 Carolina Panthers - Justin Blalock, OL, Texas
Hey another OL makes the mock. Carolina has good RBs despite the many opinions bouncing around sites like this. Edge is a good RB in AZ. Sometimes, most times, the OL is the story, and I think it is the problem in Carolina. Blalock is the best run blocker in this draft. He can play guard or tackle. He is a road grader of the highest order. I guess he could fall like John Scott did a year ago, but I have a feeling his run blocking and versatility will be the difference.
1.24 Cincinnatti Bengals - Eric Weddle, DB, Utah
Here's the DB I have been gushing over for about a year now. I still think he could be the best of the lot when all is said and done. Weddle got mad game. He can play any position in the secondary and can even switch sides and play some RB. Scored four TDs against SDSU this year-- two as a safety and two as an RB. I watched him completely dismantle Calvin Johnson last year. It was four quarters of total domination of an elite WR. I've seen him take over three other games in the last two years, and I mean take over. Reminds me of Ronnie Lott.
1.25 New England (from Seattle) - Michael Bush, RB, Louisville
No way you say? This is the team that drafted TEs in the first round in back to back years only to add two more TEs the following year. Let's face it, we don't know who they'll draft, but we know Belichick likes his toys. Bush is representing nice value about here. He is great insurance for a Maroney or Dillon injury, a better receiver than both and considering the way this mock unfolded... well, there he is, so here's something to talk about. Also, during a Louisville game this season, the announcer was discussing Bush on the sidelines and said a couple NFL scouts have told him they see him as an HBack multi purpose player, not a grind it out feature RB. I concur. I think the Pats think like that too. (OK fine, find a spot for Bush. He went undrafted in my rough draft.)
1.26 New England Patriots - Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State
Yeah, I'm going with the Fresno connection here rather than try to figure out the enigmatic Pats. I'm a little tired of typing at pick 26. McCauley has had a tough year. You'll hear about how he was better than Richard Marshall last year. It isn't true. Marshall was incredible and he currently looks like the best corner from last year's draft. McCauley wasn't far behind him, he just wasn't better. He does have better measureables and he is as solid in man coverage as any college corner in memory, but not quite the ball skills, run support, or playmaking ability of Marshall. Still the skillset of a shut down corner is there and the Pats could use that.
1.27 New Orleans Saints - Buster Davis, LB, Florida State
A couple months back in the IDP forum I said I thought Buster would be a third rounder. He had a great game and I was subduing hype. Uh, he kept having great games, and as a first rounder he's a nice example of the missing depth in this draft. The knock on him is height, but Zach Thomas, London Fletcher and others have overcome being short in the middle. The Saints need a playmaking tackling machine and Buster could be very good after all. He has a great nose for the ball. While many will harp on his shortness, I think he can only go up from here in this draft.
1.28 San Diego Chargers - Jeff Samardzija, WR, Notre Dame
The Shark (I hate the nickname less than typing the real name) is another polarizing player. Some love him. Some hate him. Few fall inbetween. I think he's terrific. Last I heard our friend Sigmund Bloom didn't care for him. I don't want to argue it, but I'm pretty sure the scouts like what they see. He is quite the athlete before and after the catch and a pretty slick route runner for a tall WR. His hands are top notch. Say what you want about Parker and McCardell being solid, or about Jackson and Floyd emerging, none of them are making an impact. It is a weakness in San Diego and this team is an impact receiver away from being complete on offense. The baseball thing could be a problem, but I am not considering it in this projection.
1.29 Chicago Bears - Rufus Alexander, LB, Oklahoma
No question in my mind that Alexander is a better LB than Clint Ingram who is making a nice name for himself in Jacksonville. If Briggs goes then they'll need to replace him and even if he stays Rufus could line up with Briggs and Urlacher. You'd think the Bears would address offense immediately. They didn't last year until a 6th round FB. I doubt they do that again, but I also expect them to continue adding to that defense with their first pick next year.
1.30 Baltimore Ravens - Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State
My respect for Ozzie and Co. as talent evaluators is well established here. They blew it with Boller (so it seems), so they make up for it here. This team is nicely rounded across the roster and the personnel department has a history of seeking BAP. I think Smith is it. OL could be addressed here. Note: After compiling this mock and making subtle changes, I scanned a few others. This Smith to the Ravens thing is very popular. Who knew?
1.31 Dallas Cowboys - Reggie Nelson, FS, Florida
As a fan I think the needs are OL, FS, and/or a future #1 WR would be nice to see. Knowing Parcells I have to rule out the OL and WR in round one and even FS is not his cup of round one tea. I also have a hard time judging how much they like Pat Watkins. Aaron Glenn is still holding up in the nickel, but his time is coming up soon, so I guess any DB (best available) makes the most sense, but truthfully, I think it's just any defensive player. I went with Reggie Nelson to give him props for the great season. He is playing at a very high level and could be what the doctor ordered at FS in Dallas. LB or DL are equally likely I suppose.
1.32 Indianapolis Colts - HB Blades, ILB, Pittsburgh
Back when I said Buster Davis was a 3rd rounder I mentioned preferring Blades over him. It's close, but Davis was better this year. The Colts are soft up the middle. You have to love a story like Brackett's, but they need to toughen up the middle of the field. Blades is the best option to do that this year with who's left. I like the guy, but certain things I've seen make me wonder if he has some cardio issues. In the first quarter he's everywhere, but he loses something as games progress-- more than most. He's a true warrior on the field. A bit like D'Qwell from last year.
Well, there you have it so let me have it. I half expect half the names in this mock to be missing by early April, but it's a sincere and original effort I had to get off my chest to get the juices flowing. I'm aware of many missing names that may be bothering you. I'm very sympathetic and open to changes in DEs and CBs in particular. Some tough calls and cuts were made in the process, but the missing players grade/rank very near the chosen ones.
I have top tens by position in the works. They just need a little more research, thought and tweaking. I'll post them as an appendix to this mock, once complete and time permitting. Prolly get that finished up Sunday while watching the games.
If an early peak at possibilities, an introduction to and/or conversation about future NFL players, and an early discussion about team needs interests you, then this thread could work. My mocks change right up to the week of the draft. It's the learning process through constant correction that helps fuel my interest in the topic so-- team homers and college junkies-- all criticisms and suggestions are appreciated.
You may hate my selection order. Sorry. The first ten are all very near their current order. I fiddled with the 5-6 and 6-5 teams a little, and messed with playoff outcomes. It's all up in the air and open for input.
About next April's draft. I am mostly unimpressed with the depth and overall talent. The mid and late first round includes talent comparable to last year's early third round, imo. A year ago, Hank Baskett made round 1 of my first mock then proceeded to go undrafted (and fell out of my mocks too). He's a nice talent and a good example of last year's depth. Similar issues exist only at WR this year, and the lack of depth elsewhere should make mistakes like the one above less likely. The elite talent is quality for any year. The dropoff is early and deep.
Everyone seems to love these wide receivers and I am no different (not just the hyped top guns but a full top ten of big-time talent). I am going with Sidney Rice's current stance though. That's a tough hit to the elite depth at WR. He is not in this mock. He seems "reasonably" sincere in his committment to Spurrier for another season. I think it's 55-45 he stays, so whereas I usually stick the underclassmen in expecting them to declare, I'm going with Rice's early word in this early mock. Deep down I think Sidney recognizes a first round guarantee this year compared to a great shot at top 5 next year makes staying good risk management. And he says he's having fun and the Gamecocks can make a run.
I also like the QBs a lot and had to work to get four of them in this mock. A few intriguing and eligible QB talents whom I once predicted would be in this draft will not, but the QB talent and depth is still impressive. If you hate my decisions on QB team placement, oh well. I prolly got 'em wrong but dern it, 4 or 5 of them are going in the first round somehow some way. Any team's fans assigned a QB after Quinn are probably going to gripe. The real draft order will go a long way to sorting this out. I certainly could be wrong about these numbers, but I think 7 or more QBs from this class will be starting in the NFL eventually-- seriously.
After a couple gifted underclassman RBs I am not impressed with the rest of this group. Some solid TEs help make this shallow draft decent for long-term fantasy purposes-- WRs+++, QBs+++, TEs++, RBs- unless you get Peterson, Lynch (maybe Bush) or lucky. I do have a sleeper RB or two, but that'll have to wait.
The DTs and DEs tell a similar story. Some nice ones and a cliff, though more DEs are emerging than I expected. There isn't half as many quality LBs as last year, but the top tier is comparable. The DBs are solid and respectably deep, but again, nothing like last year's mob. The OL talent is shallow, decent at the top, but mostly unimpressive, sorry. If you're dreaming of rebuilding an OL through this draft, you probably are dreaming. There's a few nice players, but understand if I don't see your team addressing pressing OL needs in round one (later is probably more likely this year). I have all OLs but #1 generally downgraded, especially Sam Baker and Levi Brown who have not played up to their press clippings. However, I do agree the lack of significant depth elsewhere could launch a few more OLs into the first round.
* designates underclassmen
I'm barely commenting on these draftees, so feel free to ask questions or share insights. It's very early yet. Off we go...
1.01 Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
Thomas is a great prospect with franchise LT potential. The Cards are a solid OL away from a dominant offense. Thomas should be available anywhere in the first four picks so regardless of where AZ lands he should be their target. I alphabetized the teams with worst records. AZ goes first, thus so does Thomas.
1.02 Detroit Lions - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
Quinn's had an up and down season but the final numbers are ridiculous 35 tds, 5 picks, 63% completions... nice. Kitna, McCown and Orlovsky? I know they all have their fans, but meh. Quinn is better than any and he'll sell tickets. After the Harrington saga, this team deserves a franchise QB. Quinn is exactly that.
1.03 Oakland Raiders - Adrian Peterson*, RB, Oklahoma
I expect some readers will want me to switch 3 and 4 (most mocks do). I'm expecting Peterson to be top three and ahead of Calvin Johnson regardless of how the final order falls. I could see him 1st or 2nd, Johnson 2nd or 3rd (both before Quinn and Thomas). Raider fans may be screaming for an OL here. Uh, there isn't one worth it. Trading down could be an option. But Peterson is a force of nature who can instantly breathe life into that offense with or without Moss. I thought hard about another QB here and later mocks may reflect that. Brohm or Russell could skyrocket in this draft.
1.04 Cleveland Browns - Calvin Johnson*, WR, Georgia Tech
The Browns have a great young receiver and many needs elsewhere, but you don't pass up on a sure thing with Johnson's potential. What a combo he and Edwards could be. Imagine if the OL stays healthy and reaches it's potential. Watch out for the Browns. I still think Romeo and Phil know what they're doing. The OL losses were too much too overcome and the D is still a work in progress (for later rounds). Calvin Johnson is elite. He falls no farther than this.
1.05 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
One could argue that Adams ends the elite "must draft" best available player talent in this draft. The above are probably the top five players. Simeon Rice isn't getting any younger and Adams has been as good as any DE in the country for two straight years. He's had a great season and made himself a rich man. Personally, I think the 4 above him are clearly separated from the pack and the deep DE pool makes this a dicey pick.
1.06 Houston Texans - LaRon Landry, S, LSU
Glenn Earl and CC Brown? Landry is a needed upgrade. I fell in love with a DB to be drafted later and set out to be a contrarian and argue him as the best DB in the country. So, I watched Landry and others very closely. Landry is amazing. Hits harder and more often than his brother who is starting for the Ravens as a rookie. Runs much faster, makes plays all over the field, intense ballhawk. Scary how good he could be. He's a can't miss star at safety and Houston's defense is still it's biggest problem.
1.07 Pittsburgh Steelers - Alan Branch*, DT, Michigan
Sorry EG, I had to chuckle when I saw the Steelers possibly this high, so I went with it. This is still a team without major weaknesses. I debated others before deciding on Branch. The guy's been a beast in all but the Buckeye game where he was doubled all day. He just ragdolls OLs-- a huge part of Michigan's success. At 6-6 330 he is way more than quick enough to play alongside Hampton and make Kimo a distant memory.
1.08 Washington Redskins - Tedd Ginn, Jr.*, WR, Ohio State
If I fire up the draft blog after the holidays, Ginn will get special attention. The myths need debunking. The player needs better understanding. One myth floating about is that Ginn has bad hands (he had a couple drops against Michigan). OSU HC Jim Tressell says he has the best hands on the team. I have seen enough snatches of difficult to catch balls to have no concerns about his hands. Who knows what the Skins do with a high draft pick if they don't trade it? Gibbs has won a Super Bowl with smaller speedy WRs. Ginn fits the mold, and is a very special talent.
1.09 Green Bay Packers - Marshawn Lynch*, RB, California
I can already hear the complaint, "This isn't fantasy football, it's the real NFL." Well this year, which isn't spectacular by NFL measures, is pretty cool for fantasy purposes. I'm generally the last one to emphasize offensive skill positions in a mock draft, but Lynch is a freak and the Packers are a prime candidate to snatch him up. There isn't much invested in Morency and Herron. Green could fill a Dillon role to Lynch's Maroney. Lynch is better than Maroney, imo btw. "I" would sure draft him if I was GB, and I'd do so knowing needed DBs run pretty deep in this draft.
1.10 Tennessee Titans - Dwayne Jarrett*, WR, Southern California
Yes another skill position. Jarrett's stock has been up and down since early this season. It is peaking since the Notre Dame performance but post season testing may downgrade it. I doubt the braintrust in Tennessee has moved him up or down a bit as they know him well. Vince needs help and Jarrett seems like a good match (understanding opinions on these WRs vary).
1.11 Buffalo Bills - Brian Brohm*, QB, Louisville
I know, another offensive ball handler type guy. I know. Losman is coming around and it's still too early to give up on him. Holcomb is around to pick up messes and Nall has starter potential of his own. It's not exactly like Detroit because of JP's youth, but still, this team has been too long without a franchise grade QB, and that is exactly what Brohm is. He may be better than Quinn who I think is better than Leinart. It's not like Buffalo is predictable and does what the masses expect. Will 7 of the first 11 be skill position players? Probably not. Odds are against it, but it's possible and more importantly these are the best available players, imo.
1.12 Atlanta Falcons - Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
Currently there's a plaintive wail crying for Falcon WRs to catch the expertly thrown passes of Michael Vick. At 1.12 there will very likely be an elite WR available, but not in this mock unless you love the pitcher from Notre Dame. Anyway, Lelie, White, Jenkins... they still have excellent potential. It's not their most pressing need. Able bodies pressuring the QB is the biggest problem I see in Atlanta. Moses at his best plays like Abraham. He has not been at his best this year and rumors abound about his uninspired effort. Nevertheless, he was once considered the possible #1 overall. He is a freak athlete. He could fall more, but he should stop the bleeding in workouts, and the local hero thing works for me before a longer fall.
1.13 Miami Dolphins - Darrelle Revis*, CB, Pittsburgh
Another team whining for WR. There seems to be a consensus among the online drafnik/guru/experts that Leon Hall is the #1 CB. I disagree. Hall has played great, looks great, may be great, but no doubt he benefits from tremendous surrounding talent. I've seen Revis do things that are above and beyond the rest of the corners in this draft. He's a great talent. When all the poking and prodding is done, I expect him to go very high. If not, he'll be a steal. A diehard Dolphin draft expert is assuring me they will go DL here. He assured me after the mock was done, so I'm not changing now. OL is just as likely perhaps? Revis rocks.
1.14 Minnesota Vikings - Michael Griffin, S, Texas
The Vikings lead the league in run defense because they are second to last against the pass. Why bother running? What's the deal Vike fans? Smoot and Winfield are solid. Nevertheless, Griffin comes out with an exceptional grade. Sharper is aging. Smith has his moments but isn't a long-term answer at safety. Griffin makes sense to me at this point. He's a borderline elite talent reminiscent of a young Sharper.
1.15 San Francisco 49ers - Leon Hall, CB Michigan
Walt Harris has had a nice season in SF, but he's too old to be a starting corner. SF needs a future opposite Spencer, and Hall (should he last this long and be up to the hype) would be a great addition to a vastly improved team. I confess to not being as high on Hall as most. Anybody catch him against the Buckeyes? Uh... I understand Ginn and Gonzo are excellent, but come on, make some plays. So he makes the top 15 based primarily on 9er needs and "other" opinions which I respect.
1.16 Philadelphia Eagles - Paul Posluzny, LB, Penn State
Get used to seeing this pick in just about every mock. That probably means it won't happen, but the Eagles need to solve their LB problems. Posluzny would have been a first rounder last year if he declared and was healthy. He has made a seamless recovery and staying in school hasn't cost him a bunch of money. Good for him. Nice player where ever he ends up. Should have a long productive career.
1.17 St Louis Rams - Patrick Willis, LB, Mississippi
The Rams are terrible against the run. Witherspoon was a step in the right direction, but they still need sure tacklers. A better tackler than Willis cannot be found in this draft. He's a meaner, bigger hitting version of DeMeco Ryans without the incredible intangibles, though his intangibles are good. He's a tackle machine who many thought could have been a first rounder last year. Ryans opened the 2nd round as a steal and Willis had an almost identical grade. He also gives the Rams the option to move Spoon to WLB as Willis is capable of playing any LB slot in the Rams scheme. They could go for a DT to plug their soft underbelly, but Wroten is going to be good and the DTs below do not grade like Willis, imo.
1.18 New York Jets - LaMarr Woodley, DE, Michigan
Woodley is the real deal. What a great season he had. Projecting here as a 3/4 OLB capable of playing 4-3 DE in the Jets hybrid schemes, this seems like a nice fit. The Jets are impressively headed in the right direction. An explosive pass rusher like Woodley is one of the missing ingredients. Best to nab him here and worry about the other pieces later.
1.19 Jacksonville Jaguars - JaMarcus Russell*, QB, LSU
Russell may be the most polarizing player in this draft. What is it with black QBs? Silly if you ask me. This kid has the strongest arm in the history of civilization. He can put the ball in orbit round the moon and land it back in the stadium. He's also a solid leader and a tough competitor. His decision making has been a little sketchy here and there, but that can usually be said of any QB in the SEC. I think he's a freak, a stud, better than Leftwich or Garrard, as good as Quinn and Brohm, just different. Completing 68% of his passes in that conference as an underclassman... are you kidding me? Auburn and Florida got the best of him early, but since Oct 7th he's been the best performing QB in the country. He could go earlier in this draft.
1.20 New York Giants - Glenn Dorsey*, DT, LSU
The Giants are tough to predict. Statistically they are only top 10 running the ball. The interior DL is improved, still not very good, though it has dominating moments. Pierce could use help at LB (depth and health are issues), and the secondary remains mediocre. I know they found a nice DT late in the draft last year, but it seems to me they need to keep pressing that spot. Like they did DE for a couple years. They will eventually find what they're looking for. Dorsey may not declare, but if he did it would be because the Draft Advisory Board told him what I believe-- first rounder, no doubt. So believing that means I expect him to come out even though most are currently expecting the opposite.
1.21 Kansas City Chiefs - Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio State
When I think of Pitcock, I think of Tamba Hali in a DTs body. The Chiefs were very happy to land Hali around this spot last year. I think they stay focussed on the same issues and bring fresh meat and legs into the middle of the D-line. Pitcock is generally regarded as the best senior DT in the draft. He's always been a rock against the run and this year he's unleashed a fierce pass rush for the nation's top team.
1.22 Denver Broncos - Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame
Abiamiri's career has been a poor man's version of Mario Williams' days at NC State. He's great against bad teams, piles up numbers, then disappears into the shadows of his teammates against better competition. Sometimes he flashes amazing ability. The intangibles are solid. The measureables should be impressive. Shanahan loves speed and it's time he find some for his defensive line. There's a couple DEs I like better but I'm anticipating measureables separating Abiamiri. I could be wrong about this one. Imagine that? Tamba wha... ?
1.23 Carolina Panthers - Justin Blalock, OL, Texas
Hey another OL makes the mock. Carolina has good RBs despite the many opinions bouncing around sites like this. Edge is a good RB in AZ. Sometimes, most times, the OL is the story, and I think it is the problem in Carolina. Blalock is the best run blocker in this draft. He can play guard or tackle. He is a road grader of the highest order. I guess he could fall like John Scott did a year ago, but I have a feeling his run blocking and versatility will be the difference.
1.24 Cincinnatti Bengals - Eric Weddle, DB, Utah
Here's the DB I have been gushing over for about a year now. I still think he could be the best of the lot when all is said and done. Weddle got mad game. He can play any position in the secondary and can even switch sides and play some RB. Scored four TDs against SDSU this year-- two as a safety and two as an RB. I watched him completely dismantle Calvin Johnson last year. It was four quarters of total domination of an elite WR. I've seen him take over three other games in the last two years, and I mean take over. Reminds me of Ronnie Lott.
1.25 New England (from Seattle) - Michael Bush, RB, Louisville
No way you say? This is the team that drafted TEs in the first round in back to back years only to add two more TEs the following year. Let's face it, we don't know who they'll draft, but we know Belichick likes his toys. Bush is representing nice value about here. He is great insurance for a Maroney or Dillon injury, a better receiver than both and considering the way this mock unfolded... well, there he is, so here's something to talk about. Also, during a Louisville game this season, the announcer was discussing Bush on the sidelines and said a couple NFL scouts have told him they see him as an HBack multi purpose player, not a grind it out feature RB. I concur. I think the Pats think like that too. (OK fine, find a spot for Bush. He went undrafted in my rough draft.)
1.26 New England Patriots - Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State
Yeah, I'm going with the Fresno connection here rather than try to figure out the enigmatic Pats. I'm a little tired of typing at pick 26. McCauley has had a tough year. You'll hear about how he was better than Richard Marshall last year. It isn't true. Marshall was incredible and he currently looks like the best corner from last year's draft. McCauley wasn't far behind him, he just wasn't better. He does have better measureables and he is as solid in man coverage as any college corner in memory, but not quite the ball skills, run support, or playmaking ability of Marshall. Still the skillset of a shut down corner is there and the Pats could use that.
1.27 New Orleans Saints - Buster Davis, LB, Florida State
A couple months back in the IDP forum I said I thought Buster would be a third rounder. He had a great game and I was subduing hype. Uh, he kept having great games, and as a first rounder he's a nice example of the missing depth in this draft. The knock on him is height, but Zach Thomas, London Fletcher and others have overcome being short in the middle. The Saints need a playmaking tackling machine and Buster could be very good after all. He has a great nose for the ball. While many will harp on his shortness, I think he can only go up from here in this draft.
1.28 San Diego Chargers - Jeff Samardzija, WR, Notre Dame
The Shark (I hate the nickname less than typing the real name) is another polarizing player. Some love him. Some hate him. Few fall inbetween. I think he's terrific. Last I heard our friend Sigmund Bloom didn't care for him. I don't want to argue it, but I'm pretty sure the scouts like what they see. He is quite the athlete before and after the catch and a pretty slick route runner for a tall WR. His hands are top notch. Say what you want about Parker and McCardell being solid, or about Jackson and Floyd emerging, none of them are making an impact. It is a weakness in San Diego and this team is an impact receiver away from being complete on offense. The baseball thing could be a problem, but I am not considering it in this projection.
1.29 Chicago Bears - Rufus Alexander, LB, Oklahoma
No question in my mind that Alexander is a better LB than Clint Ingram who is making a nice name for himself in Jacksonville. If Briggs goes then they'll need to replace him and even if he stays Rufus could line up with Briggs and Urlacher. You'd think the Bears would address offense immediately. They didn't last year until a 6th round FB. I doubt they do that again, but I also expect them to continue adding to that defense with their first pick next year.
1.30 Baltimore Ravens - Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State
My respect for Ozzie and Co. as talent evaluators is well established here. They blew it with Boller (so it seems), so they make up for it here. This team is nicely rounded across the roster and the personnel department has a history of seeking BAP. I think Smith is it. OL could be addressed here. Note: After compiling this mock and making subtle changes, I scanned a few others. This Smith to the Ravens thing is very popular. Who knew?
1.31 Dallas Cowboys - Reggie Nelson, FS, Florida
As a fan I think the needs are OL, FS, and/or a future #1 WR would be nice to see. Knowing Parcells I have to rule out the OL and WR in round one and even FS is not his cup of round one tea. I also have a hard time judging how much they like Pat Watkins. Aaron Glenn is still holding up in the nickel, but his time is coming up soon, so I guess any DB (best available) makes the most sense, but truthfully, I think it's just any defensive player. I went with Reggie Nelson to give him props for the great season. He is playing at a very high level and could be what the doctor ordered at FS in Dallas. LB or DL are equally likely I suppose.
1.32 Indianapolis Colts - HB Blades, ILB, Pittsburgh
Back when I said Buster Davis was a 3rd rounder I mentioned preferring Blades over him. It's close, but Davis was better this year. The Colts are soft up the middle. You have to love a story like Brackett's, but they need to toughen up the middle of the field. Blades is the best option to do that this year with who's left. I like the guy, but certain things I've seen make me wonder if he has some cardio issues. In the first quarter he's everywhere, but he loses something as games progress-- more than most. He's a true warrior on the field. A bit like D'Qwell from last year.
Well, there you have it so let me have it. I half expect half the names in this mock to be missing by early April, but it's a sincere and original effort I had to get off my chest to get the juices flowing. I'm aware of many missing names that may be bothering you. I'm very sympathetic and open to changes in DEs and CBs in particular. Some tough calls and cuts were made in the process, but the missing players grade/rank very near the chosen ones.
I have top tens by position in the works. They just need a little more research, thought and tweaking. I'll post them as an appendix to this mock, once complete and time permitting. Prolly get that finished up Sunday while watching the games.
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