Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2010 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Chad Ochocinco Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Two Deep]

82- 1140- 8tds

 

[msommer]

Repeat 2009

 

[two_dollars]

Improves on 2009. Bryant keeps defenses more honest than Coles. Plus he was just on dancing with the Stars and as lots more end zone celebrations planned.

91-1310-11

 

[fightingillini]

I have two questions regarding "85"

1) Will CIN continue its run first gameplan like last year?

2) How much will Antonio Bryant eat into Ocho's production?

75 rec, 1075 yds, 7 TD

 

[Creed Bratton]

The one problem i have in knowing what to make of ochocinco this season is not knowing what the deal is with carson palmer. Is he going to be able to return to pre-injury form? Because if palmer is able to be a top ten signal caller again, i think ochocinco could be really undervalued with a real chance to put up a 1300-1400 yard season.

 

[az_prof]

Earlier posts have hit on the relevant questions:

1) Will the team be run heavy like last year or more balanced? I think they added Bryant and Matt Jones and the rookie TE because they want to be more balanced. Let's face it; Cedric Benson is not going to carry a team to a Superbowl. So I do expect more passing than last year IF...

2) Can Palmer take a step forward in recovery from injury? If Palmer doesn't improve then I don't see how Ocho can improve on 09 and he could even regress some. Will Palmer improve? I think so. Usually players are better two years removed from major surgery compared to one year.

3) Will the addition of Bryant and Jones hurt or help? I see Jones as just a depth acquisition; he's no threat to Ocho. Bryant is a legitimate starting NFL WR and he will get his, but Ocho always did just fine, even better than fine, with Housh on the other side. If Palmer is ok I think this is a wash.

2009: 72, 1047, 9 TDs

2007: 93, 1440. 8 TDs

I am going to say that he is somewhere between these two.



82, 14.5 ypc (same as last year and the same as his career average), 1196 yards, 8 TDs.

 

[Creed Bratton]

Earlier posts have hit on the relevant questions:

1) Will the team be run heavy like last year or more balanced? I think they added Bryant and Matt Jones and the rookie TE because they want to be more balanced. Let's face it; Cedric Benson is not going to carry a team to a Superbowl. So I do expect more passing than last year IF...

2) Can Palmer take a step forward in recovery from injury? If Palmer doesn't improve then I don't see how Ocho can improve on 09 and he could even regress some. Will Palmer improve? I think so. Usually players are better two years removed from major surgery compared to one year.

3) Will the addition of Bryant and Jones hurt or help? I see Jones as just a depth acquisition; he's no threat to Ocho. Bryant is a legitimate starting NFL WR and he will get his, but Ocho always did just fine, even better than fine, with Housh on the other side. If Palmer is ok I think this is a wash.

2009: 72, 1047, 9 TDs

2007: 93, 1440. 8 TDs

I am going to say that he is somewhere between these two.



82, 14.5 ypc (same as last year and the same as his career average), 1196 yards, 8 TDs.

I actually think that the addition of bryant and jones will help ochocinco. In fact, i think the additions to the passing game is one of the reasons to be optimistic about ochocinco's prospects for the season. Like you stated, having housh didn't hurt him, and i don't think that's going to be different in this case either.

The bengals' OC has been talking about trying to implement the no huddle and, in general, to try to improve the passing game in cincinnati. Whether or not that is just worthless offseason coachspeak remains to be seen, but marvin lewis did have a pretty physical run game with rudi johnson and was still able to air it out as well a few years back. I think that palmer may have also had fewer pass attempts because he wasn't as effective last season, so it's reasonable to think if his arm is good to go, they're going to increase his passing attempts on the season.

I'm aware that players coming off an ACl reconstruction are usually at a 100% or close to it by the second season afterwards, but does that hold true for Palmer's surgery? I don't really know much about his elbow surgery other than jake delhomme had a similar one before(which doesn't bode well).

90 receptions for 1300 yards and 7 touchdowns provided palmer is okay.

 

[rzrback77]

From 03 through 07, Chad Johnson (Ocho Cinco) was a studly WR year in and year out. He finished as high as WR 3 and no lower than WR 9. He averaged 92 catches per year and 8.6 TDs. During those five seasons, he did not miss a game. Then in 08, he slipped badly as he struggled with his shoulder injury and missed three games. HIs targets decreased from over 9.5 per game down to 7.5. In 09, he played better and again did not miss a game, but Palmer struggled some and Cinci focused more on the run. Chad had 8 targets per game.

As we approach 2010, the Bengals have added several receiving options including Antonio Bryant, Matt Jones, Jordan Shipley, and Jermaine Gresham. With all of those added weapons, it seems to be a stretch that Ocho Cinco will get more opportunities to make plays. The Bengals passed for 4131 yards in 07, Chad's last big season. For the past two years, they have averaged less than 3,000 yards.

I tend to think that Palmer is overlooked for 2010 and the Bengals passing offense will be much improved. I just don't think that will lead to improvement for Ocho Cinco. I think that his targets could decrease some as Palmer has more places to look. I think that the overall passing effectiveness will increase and Chad will improve on his yards per reception, but just not power him back up to elite status. However, since his current ADP is WR 17 and 47 overall, he still could slightly exceed expectations, particularly if the new receivers do not provide the benefit that most are predicting.

Chad Ocho Cinco 16 gms 128 targets 77 catches 1155 yards 15.0 ypc and 8 TDs

 

[Jason Wood]

With the TO signing in place, how does this re-shape your expectations for 85?

 

[Creed Bratton]

With the TO signing in place, how does this re-shape your expectations for 85?

I don't see how it'll make any kind of difference for Ochocinco. Neither TO or Bryant is going to command a dominant amount of targets, so it's probably just a good thing that the Bengals have a little more depth at receiver.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think that Cinci wants to run the ball and play good defense and mix in the pass. I don't think Palmer is a 4k guy this year , even with the addition of TO and Bryant. TO is going to get close to 1000 yards himself, so in my mind there's only so much to go around with the style of play Cinci showed last year in winning the division.

I think it's a 1a and 1b with Chad and TO in Cinci.

70 receptions for 1020 yards and 6 td's.

I have slightly lower numbers for TO but I expect TO to come on more as the year progresses and my upside for TO is higher than it is for 85.