Chamber/Wayne... (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

2 ywaes ago T.O. had the most drops in the NFL, and I don't think many people thought that he was overrated. Chambers has been getting better every year, with no help from his QBs. Thos year he has C-pep, and he is going to be huge. I think that he will challenge for the Top 5.

T.O. has proven that it's possible to be top-10 with a horrible catch%... but if 9 out of 10 top-10 WRs have a 58+% catch%, historically... then why on earth would I gamble on a WR with a 50% catch% instead of a comparable WR with a 60% catch%?

Well for starters, 50% of 200 is still greater than 58% of 150. Oh yeah, and then there's also the little known (or not so much) fact that there's this magical thing in FF land called yards and touchdowns.By the way, how many targets did Chambers get last night in two and a half quarters? He should reach 180 this year with absolute ease, he got it last year with an offense that could barely even stay on the field. And of course there's the simple fact that each of those targets should be better this year with a better QB throwing to him.But really, this whole "catch percentage" thing seems fairly worthless as an FF stat and not even tertiary to the stats that really matter, so a difference of 8-10% in a category that seems to have little correlation with FF success doesn't really worry anyone. Other than you of course...

 

[Ironman]

As a Dolphins and Univ. of Miami fan I've been watching most of the key players in this debate for years.

First off, I think people aren't giving enough credit to the blocking of Edgerring James. Yeah, Peyton is a great QB who can feel the rush, but without one of the best blocking RBs in the league (at least based on my very unscientific opinion) I think Manning will be knocked down a bunch more this season and that will negatively impact Harrison and Wayne.

As for judging Chambers and Wayne just by themselves, I think both are great but that Chambers is going to take another step up. He was fantastic over the last half of the 2005 season and seems to get better at catching the ball every year (although the numbers prove that he's just remained 50/50). Anyway, I think that if CPep can stay healthy that the two will get better at timing as the season progresses. Also, considering that Culpepper has a gun and a very quick release, I think Miami is going to use Chambers on a ton of quick hitters and short crossing routes (you saw a bunch of that last night other than the TD that was called back).

For comparison's sake, I think Chambers will put up something like 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns while Wayne will probably reach about 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns.

 

[djjosee]

Chambers looked awesome tonight but Wayne looked great in his last preseason game. Can I have them both.

You can if you have a top 3 pick (2/3 turn).

Exactly what I'm thinking. LJ, then two out of Boldin/Chambers/Wayne. I think I can get a reasonable RB2 at 4.12, and then have flexibility at 5.1...3rd WR, top 3 Qb, etc.

I'm first pick in a 14 team re-draft (no PPR) and every mock I've done I've had Chamber/Wayne at the 2/3 turn with a bunch of 3rd tier RBs (Reuben/Taylor/Dunn/Lewis) - I always picked Chambers and one of Dunn/Reuben/Taylor/Lewis (in that order) and then I'd get Mason at the 4/5 turn. Going the Chamber/Wayne route, I'd get a T. Jones or Addai as my RB2 ... something I'd be less comfortable with.As per the OP's question - Chambers was my pick up to now ... but Wayne is quickly catching up (if not already surpassed) - draft isn't til September 3rd, so we'll by then.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Well for starters, 50% of 200 is still greater than 58% of 150. Oh yeah, and then there's also the little known (or not so much) fact that there's this magical thing in FF land called yards and touchdowns.By the way, how many targets did Chambers get last night in two and a half quarters? He should reach 180 this year with absolute ease, he got it last year with an offense that could barely even stay on the field. And of course there's the simple fact that each of those targets should be better this year with a better QB throwing to him.But really, this whole "catch percentage" thing seems fairly worthless as an FF stat and not even tertiary to the stats that really matter, so a difference of 8-10% in a category that seems to have little correlation with FF success doesn't really worry anyone. Other than you of course...

I think you're missing the point. The comparison is Chambers to Wayne. Here are Chris Chambers targets (receptions in parentheses) as far back as Data Dominator went:2002: 100 (52) = 52%2003: 130 (64) = 49%2004: 131 (70) = 54%2005: 166 (82) = 49%It is assumed that Wayne will catch 80+ balls this year. So in order for Chambers to equal that he will have to either: A) See 160 targets and continue his mediocre 50% catch percentage.orB) Improve his catch percentage assuming he sees less targets.Here are Reggie Wayne's targets (receptions in parentheses)2002: 70 (48) = 68%2003: 107 (68) = 64%2004: 113 (77) = 68%2005: 122 (80) = 66%Looking at Chambers catch percentage since 2002 I kind of doubt he will dramatically improve in the catch percentage area. So really, he has to be targeted about 10 times a game to get 80 catches. You can see each year Wayne is getting more and more targets. Last year Wayne had 10 less targets than Harrison and this could be the year he actually surpasses him. If Wayne were to get say 140 targets this year he's looking at 90 receptions. Chris Chambers would have to see 180 targets to equal that. Last year, the league leader in targets only had 171.

 

[SSOG]

2 ywaes ago T.O. had the most drops in the NFL, and I don't think many people thought that he was overrated. Chambers has been getting better every year, with no help from his QBs. Thos year he has C-pep, and he is going to be huge. I think that he will challenge for the Top 5.

T.O. has proven that it's possible to be top-10 with a horrible catch%... but if 9 out of 10 top-10 WRs have a 58+% catch%, historically... then why on earth would I gamble on a WR with a 50% catch% instead of a comparable WR with a 60% catch%?

Well for starters, 50% of 200 is still greater than 58% of 150. Oh yeah, and then there's also the little known (or not so much) fact that there's this magical thing in FF land called yards and touchdowns.By the way, how many targets did Chambers get last night in two and a half quarters? He should reach 180 this year with absolute ease, he got it last year with an offense that could barely even stay on the field. And of course there's the simple fact that each of those targets should be better this year with a better QB throwing to him.

What? 200 targets? Chambers should reach 180 with ease? Only once in the last 4 years (actually, probably only once in NFL history) has a WR gotten 200 targets- that was Marvin Harrison's 142 reception season. Only four times in the last 4 years has a WR topped 180 targets (the mark you're saying Chambers is going to get "with ease"). Only 6 players in the last 4 years got more targets than Chambers got last year. One of the five repeated the performance (Randy Moss 2002 - 2003), one of the five was last season (Anquan Boldin), and the other THREE (Marvin Harrison 2002, Torry Holt 2003, Eric Moulds 2002) saw their targets drop by 62, 54, and 61, respectively. In other words, this "180 target WR" is sort of like the mythical "25 carry a game RB". It's almost a myth. And the few times it DOES happen, the targets almost always fall THROUGH THE FLOOR the following season. Only Randy Moss has managed to avoid a huge drop in targets... and you might recall that he had something working in his favor called "The Randy Ratio". If Miami announces the "Chambers Ratio", then I'll concede that MAYBE he won't see his targets drop. If they don't, his targets are going to fall through the floor.

But really, this whole "catch percentage" thing seems fairly worthless as an FF stat and not even tertiary to the stats that really matter, so a difference of 8-10% in a category that seems to have little correlation with FF success doesn't really worry anyone. Other than you of course...

There's little correlation between catch% and FF success? Come again?Here are the all of the WRs who have topped 200 points over the past 4 years, courtesy of the Data Dominator. Before their names, I listed their catch%.64.7% Randy Moss 2003, 262.7 points58.5% Muhsin Muhammad 2004, 238 points68.7% Steve Smith 2005, 236.8 points63.9% Torry Holt 2003, 233.9 points69.6% Marvin Harrison 2002, 231.4 points62.3% Terrell Owens 2002, 219.9 points69.6% Hines Ward 2002, 214.1 points64.5% Javon Walker 2004, 210.0 points64.4% Joe Horn 2004, 205.9 points62.4% Larry Fitzgerald 2005, 205.0 points61.1% Terrell Owens 2004, 203.5 points62.7% Santana Moss 2005, 202.0 points62.3% Marvin Harrison 2004, 201.3 points62.6% Chad Johnson 2005, 200.5 pointsWant to tell me again that there's little correlation between catch% and fantasy points?

 

[urbanhack]

Chambers looked awesome tonight but Wayne looked great in his last preseason game. Can I have them both.

You can if you have a top 3 pick (2/3 turn).

I'm thinking this might be my plan.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

You specifically said "why would you want a guy who catches xx% less of his targets"? The easy answer I gave was that he gets more of those targets, as well as many more in the redzone.

Chambers has to have more targets than Wayne to have more points? So what? He's had more targets than Wayne every year.

It is also far from unreasonable to think that that catch % is going to go up for Chambers with the first good QB he's ever had throwing to him.

The bottom line is your entire argument is based on one statistic that is worth exactly 0 fantasy points. Saying "why would you want a WR in Chambers that catches a smaller percentage of his passes than Wayne" is like saying "why would you want RB X when his ypc is only 4.3 when you can have RB Y who's ypc is 4.7?" RB X is Ladainian Tomlinson, and RB Y is Willie Parker. The answer to the two questions is similar, because you're ignoring a half dozen other factors many of which are far more important than that one. Despite the lower YPC, LT is going to get more touches, and more redzone touches, just like despite the lower catch pct Chambers has always gotten more targets and more redzone targets, but you act like those don't even matter.

Sure, Wayne's targets have increased each of the last 4 years....and so have Chambers, and I don't think it's unreasonable to assume his will continue to rise with an offense that can actually stay on the field and pick up a few first downs, and a quarterback that has locked onto a WR in the past and appears to be doing so again.

 

[jurb26]

You specifically said "why would you want a guy who catches xx% less of his targets"? The easy answer I gave was that he gets more of those targets, as well as many more in the redzone.Chambers has to have more targets than Wayne to have more points? So what? He's had more targets than Wayne every year.It is also far from unreasonable to think that that catch % is going to go up for Chambers with the first good QB he's ever had throwing to him.The bottom line is your entire argument is based on one statistic that is worth exactly 0 fantasy points. Saying "why would you want a WR in Chambers that catches a smaller percentage of his passes than Wayne" is like saying "why would you want RB X when his ypc is only 4.3 when you can have RB Y who's ypc is 4.7?" RB X is Ladainian Tomlinson, and RB Y is Willie Parker. The answer to the two questions is similar, because you're ignoring a half dozen other factors many of which are far more important than that one. Despite the lower YPC, LT is going to get more touches, and more redzone touches, just like despite the lower catch pct Chambers has always gotten more targets and more redzone targets, but you act like those don't even matter.Sure, Wayne's targets have increased each of the last 4 years....and so have Chambers, and I don't think it's unreasonable to assume his will continue to rise with an offense that can actually stay on the field and pick up a few first downs, and a quarterback that has locked onto a WR in the past and appears to be doing so again.

Chambers should have a QB who can actually put the ball in the same zip code as him this year. He didn't in years past. Look out for Chambers.

 

[brakeyawself]

You specifically said "why would you want a guy who catches xx% less of his targets"? The easy answer I gave was that he gets more of those targets, as well as many more in the redzone.Chambers has to have more targets than Wayne to have more points? So what? He's had more targets than Wayne every year.It is also far from unreasonable to think that that catch % is going to go up for Chambers with the first good QB he's ever had throwing to him.The bottom line is your entire argument is based on one statistic that is worth exactly 0 fantasy points. Saying "why would you want a WR in Chambers that catches a smaller percentage of his passes than Wayne" is like saying "why would you want RB X when his ypc is only 4.3 when you can have RB Y who's ypc is 4.7?" RB X is Ladainian Tomlinson, and RB Y is Willie Parker. The answer to the two questions is similar, because you're ignoring a half dozen other factors many of which are far more important than that one. Despite the lower YPC, LT is going to get more touches, and more redzone touches, just like despite the lower catch pct Chambers has always gotten more targets and more redzone targets, but you act like those don't even matter.Sure, Wayne's targets have increased each of the last 4 years....and so have Chambers, and I don't think it's unreasonable to assume his will continue to rise with an offense that can actually stay on the field and pick up a few first downs, and a quarterback that has locked onto a WR in the past and appears to be doing so again.

Chambers should have a QB who can actually put the ball in the same zip code as him this year. He didn't in years past. Look out for Chambers.

I agree. Wayne wont be far off from Chambers, but Miami simply has less quality targets. If Cpep can stay healthy, Id say Chambers ranks top 3 WR this year. Wayne still has Harrison on one side, Stokley as WR3, a good TE, and two RB's. Chambers has Booker who might miss time, and D. Hagan. A rookie Wideout. I guess this also means Chambers might get more double teams. But I think Miami will be able to handle it and draw them away enough, where Chambers ends as a top3 WR. Wayne probably in the 5-10 area. Not far off. But I go Chambers. Even with Harrington as QB if Pep gets hurt.

 

[JAMMIN]

Not to hijack a thread but would you take FWP over either or both of these guys.

 

[SSOG]

You specifically said "why would you want a guy who catches xx% less of his targets"? The easy answer I gave was that he gets more of those targets, as well as many more in the redzone.

Chambers has to have more targets than Wayne to have more points? So what? He's had more targets than Wayne every year.

It is also far from unreasonable to think that that catch % is going to go up for Chambers with the first good QB he's ever had throwing to him.

The bottom line is your entire argument is based on one statistic that is worth exactly 0 fantasy points. Saying "why would you want a WR in Chambers that catches a smaller percentage of his passes than Wayne" is like saying "why would you want RB X when his ypc is only 4.3 when you can have RB Y who's ypc is 4.7?" RB X is Ladainian Tomlinson, and RB Y is Willie Parker. The answer to the two questions is similar, because you're ignoring a half dozen other factors many of which are far more important than that one. Despite the lower YPC, LT is going to get more touches, and more redzone touches, just like despite the lower catch pct Chambers has always gotten more targets and more redzone targets, but you act like those don't even matter.

Sure, Wayne's targets have increased each of the last 4 years....and so have Chambers, and I don't think it's unreasonable to assume his will continue to rise with an offense that can actually stay on the field and pick up a few first downs, and a quarterback that has locked onto a WR in the past and appears to be doing so again.

In response to the highlighted portion of your post... I actually *DO* think it's unreasonable to expect his targets to continue to rise. Like I said, of the 6 instances in the past 4 seasons where a player has had as many Targets as Chambers, ONE TIME have the targets remained similar (Randy Moss 2002 to 2003 only lost 16 targets). One time has no data (Anquan Boldin 2005), and the other 4 times the WR has lost AT LEAST 50 targets. In fact, of the 27 times a WR has gotten 150+ targets in the last 4 years, only TWICE has the WR improved on that number in year N+1 (Torry Holt 2002-2003 saw an increase of 24 targets, and Chad Johnson 2003-2004 saw an increase of a whopping 4 targets). I think anyone who is expecting Chambers to even DUPLICATE the targets he had last season- let alone improve upon them!- is sorely mistaken. Chambers last year had an outlier season, and players very seldom follow up an outlier season with an even more severe outlier season.Anyway, the difference between catch% and ypc is one of correlation. I've shown you historical numbers that show that there is a very strong correlation between a high catch% and elite fantasy seasons. No such strong correlation exists for ypc. Heck, the correlation between targets and elite seasons isn't even as strong as the correlation between catch% and elite seasons- 6 of the 14 times a WR has put up 200 fantasy points, he has had 150 or fewer targets. In fact, Terrell Owens 2004 was one of the 14 times a WR broke 200 fantasy points over the last 4 years, and he ranks 75th in targets over that same span. Historically, a good catch% is more conducive to a good season than a huge number of targets.

Now, you can argue that Chambers' catch% might increase now that he has a competant QB at the helm, but I'll just argue back that Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, and Randy Moss never saw a dip in their catch% with Gus Frerotte at the helm, and Torry Holt managed to put up a 60+% catch% with Jamie Martin and Ryan Fitzpatrick QBing his team. While Chambers COULD see a spike in his catch%, it would take a DRAMATIC spike to put him into elite territory, and dramatic spikes are extremely uncommon.

I agree. Wayne wont be far off from Chambers, but Miami simply has less quality targets. If Cpep can stay healthy, Id say Chambers ranks top 3 WR this year. Wayne still has Harrison on one side, Stokley as WR3, a good TE, and two RB's. Chambers has Booker who might miss time, and D. Hagan. A rookie Wideout. I guess this also means Chambers might get more double teams. But I think Miami will be able to handle it and draw them away enough, where Chambers ends as a top3 WR. Wayne probably in the 5-10 area. Not far off. But I go Chambers. Even with Harrington as QB if Pep gets hurt.

Again, disagreed. While Chambers doesn't have anyone of the caliber of Harrison across from him, Miami has just as many quality targets as Indy. Booker and McMichaels are both pro-bowl caliber players, and at this stage of their careers, Welker is a better WR than Stokley. Plus wasn't Ronnie Brown drafted above Caddilac because of his receiving skills?I would sig bet anyone around that Chambers has pretty much no shot at even getting a sniff of the top 3 this year. Even with a 5% increase in his catch%, he'd still need 184 targets to wind up with 100 receptions. To put that into perspective- only two players have put up 184 or more targets since 2002- Marvin in his 143 reception season, and Randy Moss in 2002. That would call for Chambers to buck ALL of the regression trends of high-target players and actually see a SUBSTANTIAL increase in his targets. The odds are so stacked against that that it's not even funny.

 

[Gbagzz]

the answer is Santana Moss, who handily outperformed both last year.

... and the most inconsistant out of the three

 

[Wingnut]

Chambers looked awesome tonight but Wayne looked great in his last preseason game. Can I have them both.

You can if you have a top 3 pick (2/3 turn).

Exactly what I'm thinking. LJ, then two out of Boldin/Chambers/Wayne. I think I can get a reasonable RB2 at 4.12, and then have flexibility at 5.1...3rd WR, top 3 Qb, etc.

I did this. Had pick 3, 22, and 24 to start the draft. Got LT, Fitz, Chambers (when I took Chambers, Wayne and TO were still on the board)Next picks were D Foster and Brady. Im LOVIN my team right now.

 

[kingmalaki]

I did something similar. Took SA, Fitz then Wayne (in a PPR league).

 

[Significant Shrinkage]

I think Wayne takes over as Indy's #1 this year. No disrespect to Marvin, but he's 34 years old now. Therefore I'd take Wayne in an explosive scheme, as opposed to Chambers in a run first offense.

This gets stated/predicted every year. I'd still take Marvin in a heartbeat. The Manning/Harrison chemistry is unmatched

 

[SSOG]

I think Wayne takes over as Indy's #1 this year. No disrespect to Marvin, but he's 34 years old now. Therefore I'd take Wayne in an explosive scheme, as opposed to Chambers in a run first offense.

This gets stated/predicted every year. I'd still take Marvin in a heartbeat. The Manning/Harrison chemistry is unmatched

I agree wholly, especially since Marvellous is still rather young for a WR (34 is nothing for the elite ones), and his game was never really predicated on speed- it was all routes and hands.With that said, while I'd take Harrison over Wayne, I don't have any problem whatsoever with ranking them both in the top 10. They're both looking like they'll have a very nice season.