Which do you consider solid? James won the rushing title his first two seasons and then failed to rush for 1000 yards the year following the tear. McAllister was awful upon his return. Gore didn't return the first time. McGahee took 18 months before he came back. The NFL season will be over 18 months after Charles' injury. Ronnie Brown admittedly wasn't very good pre-injury, but his production did dip from the previous season post-injury. Kevin Smith is more akin to Adrian Peterson (and Mendenhall), I'll give you that. But, he averaged 22 yards per game once he came back.McAllister's tear came in Week 3. Charles' tear came in Week 2 (September 18th). Edgerrin James tore his in Week 6 on October 25, so it was only about 5 weeks later than Charles. McAllister returned to a crowded backfield. Charles is returning to a crowded backfield. I expect Charles to be somewhere between James and McAllister (real enlightening). He's got a situation more akin to McAllister's, but his age is closer to James'.Frank Gore missed an entire year following his first ACL tear. He came back the next year only after his second ACL tear (of the other knee). So, it was more than two seasons removed from his first ACL tear before he played again.And, as I said above, I think it's worth noting that out of the above, none of them were speedy "scat" backs like Charles is who relies on elite acceleration/deceleration and cuts. From another site, "[t]he ACL holds the femur and tibia in place and is one of the most critical ligaments to athletes because of its primary function of stabilizing the knee joint during deceleration. Without the ACL, players would fall to the ground due to the knee buckling when applying pressure from either stopping or changing direction. It is only natural for a running back to be hesitant when running during the first year after an ACL injury. Given the speed of the NFL, there is no room for there to be any kind of hesitation and still expect a running back to put up big numbers."Maybe Charles will buck the trend as I said. I hope he does. I don't root for injury and I hope all players make it back 100% from injury. But, you need to draft Charles in the first two rounds to get him. He's either your RB1 or RB2. You are advocating him as not only an RB1, but the #5 RB off the board. Charles' injury is such that I don't think it likely that he's 100% and I don't think it's likely he'll receive either the workload or have the production required to get to top 5 numbers. I'd gladly take him as an RB4.
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Charles the 5th RB? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ryan99
- Start date
One
Not Allowed In Mexico
I think some are discounting Hillis a bit much. Love Charles, but you have to take your foot off the gas a little with him a year removed from an blown ACL.
This guy's game evolves around his top end speed and shiftyness. Look at happened to CJ after he lost his. Very above average. (I'm still not sold on CJ this season)
For Charles, I'll be happy with 1200 total years and 6 TDs, and I thought I was high.
Guys I'd take over him:
Foster
Rice
McFadden
McCoy
Murray
CJ2k
People taking AP in the 1st & 2nd round are out of their minds.
This guy's game evolves around his top end speed and shiftyness. Look at happened to CJ after he lost his. Very above average. (I'm still not sold on CJ this season)
For Charles, I'll be happy with 1200 total years and 6 TDs, and I thought I was high.
Guys I'd take over him:
Foster
Rice
McFadden
McCoy
Murray
CJ2k
People taking AP in the 1st & 2nd round are out of their minds.
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kutta
Footballguy
I don't understand the high ranking on Charles. I will even go so far as to say that he and Hillis will have very similar stats at the end of the year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Hillis outscore him.
Charles will not get a ton of carries, especially coming off an ACL. They will not give Charles the goal line work. And Hillis can catch balls, so they won't automatically pull him to insert Charles on passing downs. The signs are all pointing to Hillis scoring a ton of TD's and having a pretty good total yardage number (I could see 1200 total yards and 10 TD's). I think Charles gets maybe 5 TD's this year, and could see him with similar total yardage numbers.
I'm sure this thread will get bumped in week 10 when Charles is tearing it up and Hillis is doing nothing, but it just seems to me that this year the Chiefs will ease Charles back in slowly and let Hillis carry a decent portion of the load. Next year is a different story.
Charles will not get a ton of carries, especially coming off an ACL. They will not give Charles the goal line work. And Hillis can catch balls, so they won't automatically pull him to insert Charles on passing downs. The signs are all pointing to Hillis scoring a ton of TD's and having a pretty good total yardage number (I could see 1200 total yards and 10 TD's). I think Charles gets maybe 5 TD's this year, and could see him with similar total yardage numbers.
I'm sure this thread will get bumped in week 10 when Charles is tearing it up and Hillis is doing nothing, but it just seems to me that this year the Chiefs will ease Charles back in slowly and let Hillis carry a decent portion of the load. Next year is a different story.
Run It Up
Footballguy
The only numbers you even need to know for running backs are opportunities.
It doesnt matter at all what you think someone can do with their carries (for example, every charles honk expecting him to average 9 million yards per carry). What matters is that CJ2K is gonna be a workhorse. MJD is gonna be a workhorse (if he plays). Mcfadden is gonna be a workhorse. Forte even though he isnt getting the short yardage will still be a workhorse.
I put Charles ahead of a lot of backs further up this thread - I know how talented he is, but I would be hard pressed to say he will get as many opportunities as say Lynch, Sjax or Fjax either.
When youre talking about the difference between 200-230 and 300-350 its significant.
fantasy stud
Footballguy
I can't rank MJD here id he never plays.'Run It Up said:
Fantaholic
Footballguy
Agreed. I just don't get the continued high projections of J.Charles and MJD by this site. Having both of these guys in the top 8 for RB's seems a bit aggressive to me. RB's are undoubtedly thin this year in the draft, but I'm still waiting a bit on Charles and MJD.
kutta
Footballguy
I'm not so sure that a RB who relies so much on speed and quickness is going to average 6 yds. per carry one year after tearing an ACL.
footballnerd
Footballguy
'zamboni said:
'zamboni said:
Run It Up
Footballguy
Why stop at 6 ypc, we all know hes capable of 20.:screech:
LittleLarry
Footballguy
Did no one watch the Browns games last year? I saw them all.
When given the ball Hillis danced behind the line hesitantly and eventually put his head down for 1 or 2 yards. His longest run on the year was a whopping 24 yds and he averaged 3.6 ypc. I expect more of the same.
If he got a hangnail he was out of action. IMO he's a goal-line back and nothing more. And that's what his role will eventually be in KC.
When given the ball Hillis danced behind the line hesitantly and eventually put his head down for 1 or 2 yards. His longest run on the year was a whopping 24 yds and he averaged 3.6 ypc. I expect more of the same.
If he got a hangnail he was out of action. IMO he's a goal-line back and nothing more. And that's what his role will eventually be in KC.
kutta
Footballguy
Why do you think there was such a big difference from 2 years ago to last year?
LittleLarry
Footballguy
Dude wanted to get paid --- and didn't. Why wouldn't the Browns fork over the cash? Says something about Hillis.
Yes, although 1300 combined is nothing to sneeze at. A drop in production, but still solid.
Yes, but there was no way he was getting a huge workload even if he didn't get hurt. The Saints had just drafted Reggie Bush and had a burgeoning Pierre Thomas in the backfield.
Are you saying he injured his other knee (the second one) due to coming off the first injury? If not, this is irrelevant.
True, and he was awesome.
Dropped very slightly. It could have due to any number of factors. I don't think anyone could say for certainty that this small deviation was due to the injury.
There are two big differences between McAllister's and Charles' post injury situation. One, playing in a crowded backfield is what Charles does. He gained 1950 combined while getting fewer carries than Thomas Jones in 2010. Second, McAllister wasn't ready; he didn't play in week one. Charles certainly looks ready. I wasn't able to find preseason stats for McAllister that year, so I'm not sure if he played in the preseason.
This could be significant, but it could also be easier for a speed back to come back since they weigh less and the ligament doesn't have to support as much. Can you think of any 'scat-backs' with knee injuries recently?The one thing that really jumps out at me among these RBs is that the guys that were ready to start the season did fine, and the ones that weren't didn't. It may be the case that the mid-season guys are rushed back, or are fully healthy but aren't able to get into football shape without camp and the preseason.
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If someone can point me towards one of these I'd appreciate it.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Those numbers would have put Charles at RB14 in 2011 in a standard league, but you're ranking him 5th?
That wasn't me. Maybe hang around the forum for a little more than two weeks before giving pro tips?I thought this piece was well done, and it's rather relevant to the topic.My link
Sure, because, as I said, that's a conservative estimate. He could easily be well over that. I don't think its out of the question for him to get 200 carries at 6 ypc for 1200 yards and 50 catches at 10 ypr for another 500, along with 10tds. But keep in mind, Charles' value is not just in Charles himself, its in the fact that you can also get his backup / rbbc buddy Hillis for cheap and flex him. If you wanted to get Arian Foster's backup, Ben Tate, it would cost you 7.04 based on current ADP and you're getting a guy who has very limited upside without Foster getting hurt, so basically you're paying 1.01 and 7.04 for a great player and an insurance policy. With Charles / Hills, you're getting 2 guys and an insurance policy on each. Note: I'm not saying Charles should be higher than Foster, I'm just saying that when you're analyzing Charles, you have to look at the big picture.
If you didn't do it, then the comment wasn't directed at you. It was a general comment. As for the 'hang around for more than two weeks' thing, as in fantasy football, you should always judge an argument based on its merit. And my comment had merit. This is one of the things BostonFred was talking about: "It is a rare post that I read now which has any information whatsoever". Well, you can't get less information than a quote and an emoticon. All I'm saying is, if you're going to post, bring something to the table. Its great that people have thousands or tens of thousands of lifetime posts, but if they're routinely posting zero content posts those lofty numbers become a negative rather than a positive. Based on my brief time here it certainly seems like some people just chase high posting numbers and offer little to the community.Thanks for the link.
Also, FBG, I seriously served you up a softball there and you missed. I was fully expecting to wake up this morning and see a post of someone quoting me with a thumbs up emoticon.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
There seems to be quite a bit of evidence suggesting Charles' previous production numbers are going to decrease. Granted, those numbers could still be lofty considering their previous levels, but will his touches be high enough to warrant a draft pick at his ADP? I don't think they will be. If Charles is a 1,400 and 6 player he's being majorly overvalued. He doesn't interest me at that spot regardless of my opportunity to draft Hillis later. I'd rather take someone else at that spot and just draft Hillis. In my opinion he's the player to own in this situation.
Charles was a 15 or so touch player before the injury. We can expect those numbers to decline some, especially early in the season. It's clear he won't be receiving too many red zone opportunities either. Hillis has already scored twice inside the 20 in the preseason. There are several indicators here showing how much the Chiefs plan on incorporating Hillis into their offense.
Both players could end up having similar fantasy point totals, but only one of them represents value at the RB position.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Maybe it says something about the Browns?!
SYMPHONY X
Footballguy
I agree with this statement. I have been doing various mock drafts for my main league (10-teamer), and I seem to come up with better looking teams if I grab stud QB/WR/TE early (I have no shot at the top 3 RB's), and then load up at RB later. For example, if I grab 2 RB early, I end up with something like MJD/D. Martin. If I wait on my RB's, I end up with something like F. Jax/McGahee at RB. With all the question marks at RB4-RB12 or so, I believe that some good production can be had from the older RB's in the RB13-RB24 range. I will be sure to mix in some youth at the RB3/RB4/RB5 positions on the roster. To answer the original post question, I think it goes CJ/McFadden/Forte/Richardson/Charles after the top 3 RB's. Perhaps I am a little biased against Charles because losing him last year killed me in my main league, but at RB#8 overall, he is still being valued quite highly. This year more than ever is going to be boom/bust at the RB position. Whether you wait on RB's or grab them early, you will need some luck on your side.
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