Charles the 5th RB? (1 Viewer)

[Ryan99]

Outside the big 3 in no particular order:

Chris Johnson

Darren McFadden

Maurice Jones Drew

Ahmad Bradshaw

Matt Forte

Jamaal Charles

Ryan Matthews

Trent Richardson

others

Every guy but one on this list has some major flaw: injury, bad year, holdout, is a rookie, talented backup etc. Some have more than one. The one that doesn't is Matt Forte (I like Michael Bush, but Forte isn't in danger of losing his job like Bradshaw is). I'm willing to begrudgingly accept Forte as the 4th RB, but what about the next guy? Charles looked good in his two preseason games. I don't think Hillis will be much of a factor, considering that Hillis is coming off a 3.6 YPC season and when Charles played with Thomas Jones in 2010 (Jones had 245 carries) Charles put up a Brown-esque 240/1467 and had more total touchdowns than Jones. Charles' two big seasons both came with other backs taking a significant number of carries (Larry Johnson in 2009), so Hillis is just filling the role that we know Charles thrives with. Even if you think Hillis might break out, its easy enough to draft him later if you have Charles.

Charles' YPC the last three years he played(excluding last year) are 2008:5.3, 2009:5.9, 2010:6.4. ADP has this guy going 16th overall. He's 6th on my board (behind Aaron Rodgers), and I've almost talked myself into bumping him ahead of Forte. Any thoughts?

 

[zamboni]

I think you're underestimating the role Hillis will play, particularly since the team may bring Charles along slowly. Not only that, but Hillis is a fantastic pass catcher in his own right, whereas Jones didn't catch too many balls as the thunder component of the RBBC.

 

[kinghill]

I think you're underestimating the role Hillis will play, particularly since the team may bring Charles along slowly. Not only that, but Hillis is a fantastic pass catcher in his own right, whereas Jones didn't catch too many balls as the thunder component of the RBBC.

I have Chris Johnson ahead of Charles for these reasons.

 

[shadyridr]

I don't think Hillis will be much of a factor

Thats where you are going wrong

 

[solorca]

Outside the big 3 in no particular order:

Chris Johnson

Darren McFadden

Maurice Jones Drew

Ahmad Bradshaw

Matt Forte

Jamaal Charles

Ryan Matthews

Trent Richardson

others

Every guy but one on this list has some major flaw: injury, bad year, holdout, is a rookie, talented backup etc. Some have more than one. The one that doesn't is Matt Forte (I like Michael Bush, but Forte isn't in danger of losing his job like Bradshaw is). I'm willing to begrudgingly accept Forte as the 4th RB, but what about the next guy? Charles looked good in his two preseason games. I don't think Hillis will be much of a factor, considering that Hillis is coming off a 3.6 YPC season and when Charles played with Thomas Jones in 2010 (Jones had 245 carries) Charles put up a Brown-esque 240/1467 and had more total touchdowns than Jones. Charles' two big seasons both came with other backs taking a significant number of carries (Larry Johnson in 2009), so Hillis is just filling the role that we know Charles thrives with. Even if you think Hillis might break out, its easy enough to draft him later if you have Charles.

Charles' YPC the last three years he played(excluding last year) are 2008:5.3, 2009:5.9, 2010:6.4. ADP has this guy going 16th overall. He's 6th on my board (behind Aaron Rodgers), and I've almost talked myself into bumping him ahead of Forte. Any thoughts?

Forte is coming off an injury and has one of the best backups in the NFL. Not sure how he doesn't have a major flaw.I'd put Mcfadden as the #4 (or 5, if you want Forte), even with the injury concerns.

 

[Modog814]

Outside the big 3 in no particular order:

Chris Johnson

Darren McFadden

Maurice Jones Drew

Ahmad Bradshaw

Matt Forte

Jamaal Charles

Ryan Matthews

Trent Richardson

others

Every guy but one on this list has some major flaw: injury, bad year, holdout, is a rookie, talented backup etc. Some have more than one. The one that doesn't is Matt Forte (I like Michael Bush, but Forte isn't in danger of losing his job like Bradshaw is). I'm willing to begrudgingly accept Forte as the 4th RB, but what about the next guy? Charles looked good in his two preseason games. I don't think Hillis will be much of a factor, considering that Hillis is coming off a 3.6 YPC season and when Charles played with Thomas Jones in 2010 (Jones had 245 carries) Charles put up a Brown-esque 240/1467 and had more total touchdowns than Jones. Charles' two big seasons both came with other backs taking a significant number of carries (Larry Johnson in 2009), so Hillis is just filling the role that we know Charles thrives with. Even if you think Hillis might break out, its easy enough to draft him later if you have Charles.

Charles' YPC the last three years he played(excluding last year) are 2008:5.3, 2009:5.9, 2010:6.4. ADP has this guy going 16th overall. He's 6th on my board (behind Aaron Rodgers), and I've almost talked myself into bumping him ahead of Forte. Any thoughts?

Forte is coming off an injury and has one of the best backups in the NFL. Not sure how he doesn't have a major flaw.I'd put Mcfadden as the #4 (or 5, if you want Forte), even with the injury concerns.

Agreed. I have McFadden at #4

 

[meyerj31]

CJ

McFadden

Murray

Charles

...for me. While I think McFadden is a better talent and would put up better numbers if healthy (#1 numbers probably), that healthy streak isn't likely. CJ in a down year had 1550 yards and has no injury or workload concerns. He's gotta be the 4th back off the board.

For those worried about Hillis, note that in 2010 Charles had 230ish carries relative to Thomas Jones who had 245. Charles, if he has his explosiveness, will be plenty effective getting even half the work of Hillis. Kansas City has said they will be trying to rush the ball 500 times so I think the 2010 season is a pretty darn good comparison.

 

[Ryan99]

I think you're underestimating the role Hillis will play, particularly since the team may bring Charles along slowly. Not only that, but Hillis is a fantastic pass catcher in his own right, whereas Jones didn't catch too many balls as the thunder component of the RBBC.

I have Chris Johnson ahead of Charles for these reasons.

Hillis has one season with over 25 receptions (and it wasn't last season). Thomas Jones had 6 such seasons, although I recognize that Jones was quite old when he came to KC (although he was coming off an amazing year prior to that). Hillis has 14,4,61,22 receptions for 12.8, 4.8, 7.8, 5.9 YPR. Charles has 27,40,45 for 10.1, 7.4, 10.4 YPR. I know who I'm throwing the ball to. Its looking like Hillis' one good year might be the aberration, rather than the norm. It seems that in his one good receiving year in Cleveland, they were really forcing him the ball ... the next highest RB in receptions was Mike Bell with only 6. Hillis also fumbled 8! times that year.I like Chris Johnson, but I'm less wary of a guy that missed time due to injury than of one who was just flat out bad and is on a bad team. As long as Charles looks healthy in the preseason I like him over Johnson.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

This discussion just proves the point that you are better off taking a QB/WR or TE than any one of these flawed backs. (after the top 3). Grab 6-7 RBs later.

 

[Ryan99]

Forte is coming off an injury and has one of the best backups in the NFL. Not sure how he doesn't have a major flaw.I'd put Mcfadden as the #4 (or 5, if you want Forte), even with the injury concerns.

Forte was fine months ago, he played in the probowl. I am not as high on Michael Bush as you are, but regardless, Michael Bush is not going to take the starting job away from Forte.

 

[ppierce]

its either CJ or Dmac at #4 and it isnt even close. for the risk averse its CJ. if you wanna take on some risk its probably DMAC.

wait until after Tennessees dress rehersal Thrusday night to see how CJ looks. If last game was any indication, he could be the #1.

 

[Ryan99]

CJMcFaddenMurrayCharles...for me. While I think McFadden is a better talent and would put up better numbers if healthy (#1 numbers probably), that healthy streak isn't likely. CJ in a down year had 1550 yards and has no injury or workload concerns. He's gotta be the 4th back off the board.

And Chris Johnson had 4 TDs to go along with those yards. The last time Charles played he had 1930 yards and 8 tds. Forte had Chris Johnson's yardage and TD total in only 12 games last year.

 

[rocketsauce]

As good a chance as any of them to be "that guy", but as is mentioned here, question marks on everyone.

I have him 8th among RBs in PPR.

 

[need2know]

Outside the big 3 in no particular order:Chris JohnsonDarren McFaddenMaurice Jones DrewAhmad BradshawMatt ForteJamaal CharlesRyan MatthewsTrent RichardsonothersEvery guy but one on this list has some major flaw: injury, bad year, holdout, is a rookie, talented backup etc. Some have more than one. The one that doesn't is Matt Forte (I like Michael Bush, but Forte isn't in danger of losing his job like Bradshaw is). I'm willing to begrudgingly accept Forte as the 4th RB, but what about the next guy? Charles looked good in his two preseason games. I don't think Hillis will be much of a factor, considering that Hillis is coming off a 3.6 YPC season and when Charles played with Thomas Jones in 2010 (Jones had 245 carries) Charles put up a Brown-esque 240/1467 and had more total touchdowns than Jones. Charles' two big seasons both came with other backs taking a significant number of carries (Larry Johnson in 2009), so Hillis is just filling the role that we know Charles thrives with. Even if you think Hillis might break out, its easy enough to draft him later if you have Charles.Charles' YPC the last three years he played(excluding last year) are 2008:5.3, 2009:5.9, 2010:6.4. ADP has this guy going 16th overall. He's 6th on my board (behind Aaron Rodgers), and I've almost talked myself into bumping him ahead of Forte. Any thoughts?

dont see marshawn lynch on your list. hes better than most of those rbs listed above including charles (for this year anyway)

 

[Run It Up]

Oh god no...

IMO:

Chris Johnson

MJD

Forte

Mcfadden

Charles

Bradshaw

F.Jackson

Lynch

S.Jackson

Sproles

Richardson

10 other guys

Deangello Williams

Mathews

 

[EBF]

Yikes. No. Not for me anyway.

Charles has never been a bell cow in his career, and I don't expect that to change with Hillis around. Add in the rust from his ACL injury and he's a guy I'd avoid.

 

[Ryan99]

Outside the big 3 in no particular order:Chris JohnsonDarren McFaddenMaurice Jones DrewAhmad BradshawMatt ForteJamaal CharlesRyan MatthewsTrent RichardsonothersEvery guy but one on this list has some major flaw: injury, bad year, holdout, is a rookie, talented backup etc. Some have more than one. The one that doesn't is Matt Forte (I like Michael Bush, but Forte isn't in danger of losing his job like Bradshaw is). I'm willing to begrudgingly accept Forte as the 4th RB, but what about the next guy? Charles looked good in his two preseason games. I don't think Hillis will be much of a factor, considering that Hillis is coming off a 3.6 YPC season and when Charles played with Thomas Jones in 2010 (Jones had 245 carries) Charles put up a Brown-esque 240/1467 and had more total touchdowns than Jones. Charles' two big seasons both came with other backs taking a significant number of carries (Larry Johnson in 2009), so Hillis is just filling the role that we know Charles thrives with. Even if you think Hillis might break out, its easy enough to draft him later if you have Charles.Charles' YPC the last three years he played(excluding last year) are 2008:5.3, 2009:5.9, 2010:6.4. ADP has this guy going 16th overall. He's 6th on my board (behind Aaron Rodgers), and I've almost talked myself into bumping him ahead of Forte. Any thoughts?

dont see marshawn lynch on your list. hes better than most of those rbs listed above including charles (for this year anyway)

He would be in the 'others' category and his 'major flaw' would be the cops.

 

[John 14:6]

This discussion just proves the point that you are better off taking a QB/WR or TE than any one of these flawed backs. (after the top 3). Grab 6-7 RBs later.

Load up on depth as injuries are almost a certainty.

 

[zamboni]

I think you're underestimating the role Hillis will play, particularly since the team may bring Charles along slowly. Not only that, but Hillis is a fantastic pass catcher in his own right, whereas Jones didn't catch too many balls as the thunder component of the RBBC.

I have Chris Johnson ahead of Charles for these reasons.

Hillis has one season with over 25 receptions (and it wasn't last season). Thomas Jones had 6 such seasons, although I recognize that Jones was quite old when he came to KC (although he was coming off an amazing year prior to that). Hillis has 14,4,61,22 receptions for 12.8, 4.8, 7.8, 5.9 YPR. Charles has 27,40,45 for 10.1, 7.4, 10.4 YPR. I know who I'm throwing the ball to. Its looking like Hillis' one good year might be the aberration, rather than the norm. It seems that in his one good receiving year in Cleveland, they were really forcing him the ball ... the next highest RB in receptions was Mike Bell with only 6. Hillis also fumbled 8! times that year.

Reasonable points, but we only have two years to work from since Hillis had 68 carries and 13 carries his first two years, followed by 270 and 161.Hillis indeed was force fed the ball back in 2010, but he did well with limited options around him. And he has his OC Brian Daboll from those years.At the end of the day, the 64K question is which Hillis we see this year - the 2010 stud/Madden boy or the pedestrian head case of last year. Who knows?

 

[need2know]

This discussion just proves the point that you are better off taking a QB/WR or TE than any one of these flawed backs. (after the top 3). Grab 6-7 RBs later.

Load up on depth as injuries are almost a certainty.

:IBTL: :IBTL: :IBTL:

 

[Ryan99]

This discussion just proves the point that you are better off taking a QB/WR or TE than any one of these flawed backs. (after the top 3). Grab 6-7 RBs later.

Load up on depth as injuries are almost a certainty.

There is no depth at RB, that's the problem. Go ahead, draft your 7 late RBs. Every week you'll be staring at your computer screen for hours trying to decide which of 7 identical RBBC guys to start, and you'll get it wrong half the time. The numbers I've looked at indicate that you're better off drafting RB early, even with the increased injury risk, than WR or TE. Unless you have reason to believe that WR or RB production or injury rates will differ greatly from the historic rates, this is not a good strategy, imo.You need to draft RB early AND get RB depth later on. That's how important RB is in most leagues.

 

[Shutout]

The best combination of safe/productive at the 4 spot would be either MJD or Forte IMO. DMAC has frequent injuries and is coming off one, Charles is coming off an injury, and Chris Johnson is the king of the feast or famine. I don't want a guy that might not be a true featured back at the #4 pick, I don't want a guy that is prone to injury, and I don't want a guy who puts up 7-8 games a year less than 10 points. forte and MJD might bore people to death with 14-22, but I'll take that every week over taking ups and downs from guys with legit concrens.

 

[Ryan99]

Reasonable points, but we only have two years to work from since Hillis had 68 carries and 13 carries his first two years, followed by 270 and 161.

Hillis indeed was force fed the ball back in 2010, but he did well with limited options around him. And he has his OC Brian Daboll from those years.

At the end of the day, the 64K question is which Hillis we see this year - the 2010 stud/Madden boy or the pedestrian head case of last year. Who knows?

I see two likely scenarios play out in KC. The first is that Hillis gets the volume of touches he needs to be effective, Charles hits home runs, and everybody wins (which really means you win twice, since if you're drafting Charles you also grab Hillis and maybe flex him). The other is that Hillis flounders with 8 carries for 25 yards most games and Charles dominates. This is what's so great about Charles: he doesn't need all the touches to put up great numbers. As long as he's healthy, he's been dominant. The same can not be said for Hillis. But remember, its not an either or situation, you can draft Charles AND Hillis. It just makes Charles that much more attractive that you can draft his backup and actually play him in your flex. If either guy goes down the other gets even better.As long as Charles is healthy (every indication right now is that he is), there is no possible way the guy doesn't get his touches. He tied the all time record for ypc the last time he played a season.

 

[EBF]

I'd be inclined to wait a round and grab Richardson or Doug Martin.

Both guys have games that are tailor-made for FF production.

If they are both healthy for the entire season, I expect good things. It's been a little while since we had a great rookie RB in FF, but I think these guys will revive that tradition.

 

[karmarooster]

Foster

Rice

McCoy

CJ

DMC

Forte

Murray

SJax

Charles

Richardson

MJD

Bradshaw

Martin

Matthews

 

[zamboni]

Reasonable points, but we only have two years to work from since Hillis had 68 carries and 13 carries his first two years, followed by 270 and 161.

Hillis indeed was force fed the ball back in 2010, but he did well with limited options around him. And he has his OC Brian Daboll from those years.

At the end of the day, the 64K question is which Hillis we see this year - the 2010 stud/Madden boy or the pedestrian head case of last year. Who knows?

I see two likely scenarios play out in KC. The first is that Hillis gets the volume of touches he needs to be effective, Charles hits home runs, and everybody wins (which really means you win twice, since if you're drafting Charles you also grab Hillis and maybe flex him). The other is that Hillis flounders with 8 carries for 25 yards most games and Charles dominates. This is what's so great about Charles: he doesn't need all the touches to put up great numbers. As long as he's healthy, he's been dominant. The same can not be said for Hillis. But remember, its not an either or situation, you can draft Charles AND Hillis. It just makes Charles that much more attractive that you can draft his backup and actually play him in your flex. If either guy goes down the other gets even better.As long as Charles is healthy (every indication right now is that he is), there is no pissble way the guy doesn't get his touches. He tied the all time record for ypc the last time he played a season.

Absolutely - having both is a good option. I already own Charles in my keeper league, but I'm not sure I'll get Hillis. As for the all-time YPC, that was an ACL injury ago, so one has to temper their expectations a bit.

 

[3 hour lunch]

ADP might be brought back a bit slowly but he's practicing now and should be ready for week 1- I'm surprised he hasn't begun to make his way back up draft boards. He certainly belongs in some of the longer lists in this thread, albeit lower than most of the back from the OP.

 

[pizzatyme]

I got Charles @3.4 last night in a $150 FPC draft as the #13 RB off the board. I then took Hillis @7.4. I'll take that every time.

Edit to add that ADP went @2.1. So, the time is now to get value on all 3 backs.

 

[Otis]

Yes he is.

 

[ponchsox]

FosterRiceMcCoyCJDMCForteMurraySJaxCharlesRichardsonMJDBradshawMartinMatthews

No Lynch?

 

[LHUCKS]

I take all of these guys over Charles...

Chris Johnson

Darren McFadden

Maurice Jones Drew

Matt Forte

 

[theplayer11]

Yikes. No. Not for me anyway.Charles has never been a bell cow in his career, and I don't expect that to change with Hillis around. Add in the rust from his ACL injury and he's a guy I'd avoid.

he doesn't need to be a bell cow to put up great fantasy points....very undervalued

 

[Run It Up]

I take all of these guys over Charles...Chris JohnsonDarren McFaddenMaurice Jones DrewMatt Forte

This guy gets it.

 

[Ryan99]

I take all of these guys over Charles...Chris JohnsonDarren McFaddenMaurice Jones DrewMatt Forte

This guy gets it.

Apparently I don't get it. If you're in a shark league where you need to hit multiple early round home runs to compete, sure, take a chance on McFadden. But in a 'regular' league it doesn't make sense to drop a first round pick on him (maybe if you're at the turn and he's hanging around you do it if you plan on going RB RB). Jones Drew is holding out and coming off a 380 touch season. He has 3 consecutive seasons of at least 330 touches and was not exactly known for his durability during that time (despite missing only 2 games). Of the 7 RBs with at least 300 carries in 2010, all but Michael Turner (!) saw decreased production in 2011, many of them significantly.I have Forte ahead of Charles. I like Johnson, but not enough to have him 5th.For people that are putting 4 or 5 people ahead of Charles (not including the big 3), instead of just stating your rankings and saying its obvious or some such useless phrase, actually post some numbers, or at least fully formed thoughts, to back up your argument.

 

[need2know]

Outside the big 3 in no particular order:Chris JohnsonDarren McFaddenMaurice Jones DrewAhmad BradshawMatt ForteJamaal CharlesRyan MatthewsTrent RichardsonothersEvery guy but one on this list has some major flaw: injury, bad year, holdout, is a rookie, talented backup etc. Some have more than one. The one that doesn't is Matt Forte (I like Michael Bush, but Forte isn't in danger of losing his job like Bradshaw is). I'm willing to begrudgingly accept Forte as the 4th RB, but what about the next guy? Charles looked good in his two preseason games. I don't think Hillis will be much of a factor, considering that Hillis is coming off a 3.6 YPC season and when Charles played with Thomas Jones in 2010 (Jones had 245 carries) Charles put up a Brown-esque 240/1467 and had more total touchdowns than Jones. Charles' two big seasons both came with other backs taking a significant number of carries (Larry Johnson in 2009), so Hillis is just filling the role that we know Charles thrives with. Even if you think Hillis might break out, its easy enough to draft him later if you have Charles.Charles' YPC the last three years he played(excluding last year) are 2008:5.3, 2009:5.9, 2010:6.4. ADP has this guy going 16th overall. He's 6th on my board (behind Aaron Rodgers), and I've almost talked myself into bumping him ahead of Forte. Any thoughts?

dont see marshawn lynch on your list. hes better than most of those rbs listed above including charles (for this year anyway)

He would be in the 'others' category and his 'major flaw' would be the cops.

I don't think hes going to be suspended. I hope people in my leagues think like you do so I can draft him later than he should go..

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

This discussion just proves the point that you are better off taking a QB/WR or TE than any one of these flawed backs. (after the top 3). Grab 6-7 RBs later.

Load up on depth as injuries are almost a certainty.

There is no depth at RB, that's the problem. Go ahead, draft your 7 late RBs. Every week you'll be staring at your computer screen for hours trying to decide which of 7 identical RBBC guys to start, and you'll get it wrong half the time. The numbers I've looked at indicate that you're better off drafting RB early, even with the increased injury risk, than WR or TE. Unless you have reason to believe that WR or RB production or injury rates will differ greatly from the historic rates, this is not a good strategy, imo.You need to draft RB early AND get RB depth later on. That's how important RB is in most leagues.

Sorry for the hijack but...Disagree totally. There is a ton of RB depth. Add in the fact that RB is one of THE most injury prone positions in the game, and if you're smart about it, you'll hit on a few of those 7 guys. The key is to get guys that can be very productive if given the opportunity. 3 of last years top 10 RBs had an ADP of the 7th round or later.11 of last years top 24 RBs had an ADP of the 5th round or later.As a point of reference there were 22RBs with an ADP of the 4th Round or higher.That doesn't even factor in draft disappointments like CJ1.2K or Mendenhall. I'd much rather put a guy like Brady, Calvin, Rodgers, Brees, Graham or Gronk out there and reap the weekly rewards. As for Charles, I think he'll have a good season. Just don't think you can expect 2010 numbers though. Maybe 1400/6 combined.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I take all of these guys over Charles...Chris JohnsonDarren McFaddenMaurice Jones DrewMatt Forte

This guy gets it.

Apparently I don't get it. If you're in a shark league where you need to hit multiple early round home runs to compete, sure, take a chance on McFadden. But in a 'regular' league it doesn't make sense to drop a first round pick on him (maybe if you're at the turn and he's hanging around you do it if you plan on going RB RB). Jones Drew is holding out and coming off a 380 touch season. He has 3 consecutive seasons of at least 330 touches and was not exactly known for his durability during that time (despite missing only 2 games). Of the 7 RBs with at least 300 carries in 2010, all but Michael Turner (!) saw decreased production in 2011, many of them significantly.I have Forte ahead of Charles. I like Johnson, but not enough to have him 5th.For people that are putting 4 or 5 people ahead of Charles (not including the big 3), instead of just stating your rankings and saying its obvious or some such useless phrase, actually post some numbers, or at least fully formed thoughts, to back up your argument.

To answer your question, I don't know if anyone has every come back from an ACL and put up a season like Jamaal Charles did in 2010. He posted 1935/8. He's got a touchdown vulture on the roster in Hillis as well. I think you'd be looking at it from a fairly realistic perspective if you projected 75% of his 2010 totals. That would make it 1450/6. I just don't know how anybody could believe he's just as explosive as he was back then anyway. I'd rank him accordingly.

 

[GDogg]

I take all of these guys over Charles...

Chris Johnson

Darren McFadden

Maurice Jones Drew

Matt Forte

This guy gets it.

Apparently I don't get it. If you're in a shark league where you need to hit multiple early round home runs to compete, sure, take a chance on McFadden. But in a 'regular' league it doesn't make sense to drop a first round pick on him (maybe if you're at the turn and he's hanging around you do it if you plan on going RB RB). Jones Drew is holding out and coming off a 380 touch season. He has 3 consecutive seasons of at least 330 touches and was not exactly known for his durability during that time (despite missing only 2 games). Of the 7 RBs with at least 300 carries in 2010, all but Michael Turner (!) saw decreased production in 2011, many of them significantly.I have Forte ahead of Charles. I like Johnson, but not enough to have him 5th.

For people that are putting 4 or 5 people ahead of Charles (not including the big 3), instead of just stating your rankings and saying its obvious or some such useless phrase, actually post some numbers, or at least fully formed thoughts, to back up your argument.

That seems arbitrary. Jones-Drew had 299 carries in 2010. If he'd have had one more, you think he'd have been at risk of decreased production last year? He had great production in 2011. And, Jones-Drew is well known for his durability. He's missed 3 games total in his entire career.I have Jones-Drew, Forte, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Trent Richardson and Darren McFadden (of the names that have been mentioned) all above Charles. My reason is the ACL tear. I can only think of one RB, Jamal Lewis, to come back after an ACL tear and run for more than 1000 yards.

Maybe Jamaal Charles will buck that trend. But, particularly for a guy who relied on speed, I have no faith at all that he'll be back to normal, if ever, until next season.

 

[Ryan99]

Does anyone have any data on guys coming back from knee tears in the past 10 or so years?

 

[GDogg]

Does anyone have any data on guys coming back from knee tears in the past 10 or so years?

Jamal Lewis: Torn ACL in 2001. Bounced back in 2002 to rush for 1327 yards with a 4.3 avg. Then in 2003 rushed for 2066 yards with a 5.3 avg.Edgerrin James: Torn ACL in 2001. Following year in 2002, rushed for 989 in 14 games. In 2003, rushed for 1289 yards, then had back to back 1500+ yard seasons in '04 and '05.Willis McGahee: Torn ACL in the bowl game before being drafted. Missed entire rookie season in 2003 and bounced back next season with 1128 yards rushing with a 4.0 ypc.Frank Gore: Tore his left ACL in 2001 while in college. Rehabbed all of 2002, returned in 2003 only to tear his right ACL. Returned following year after switching jersey numbers and rushed for 1000+ yards in his last college year. In his rookie year in 2005, as a part timer, rushed for 608 yards with a 4.8 ypc. Following year in 2006, rushed for 1695 yards with a 5.4 ypc.Note: You might want to have precautionary surgery to strengthen a healthy ACL if you are a RB at "the U."Deuce McAllister: Torn ACL in 2007. Came back in 2008 to rush for 418 yards with a 3.9 avg.Ronnie Brown: Torn ACL in 2006. Came back in 2007 to rush for 946 yards.Kevin Smith: Torn ACL in 2009. Came back in 2010 to rush for 133 yards.So, only Ronnie Brown and Jamal Lewis came back to do reasonably well the following season, but only Lewis ran for more than 1000 yards. But, Lewis also tore his in preseason of 2001 and had a long rehab prior to coming back in 2002. He also didn't have to compete for carries with another starting RB the following season.The general rule that I've read is that it takes two years for most players to get back to normal following ACL tears. For that reason, I'm essentially crossing Charles and Peterson (and Mendenhall, Hightower and Moreno) off my list (unless I can get them as my RB4, which I don't think I can).

 

[Traders2001]

I don't think Hillis will be much of a factor

Thats where you are going wrong

I actally think he is right, Hillis will be a non factor by week 3 or 4 .Maybe a change of pace and some 1 yd TD runs , but basically worthless.

 

[Grahamburn]

I take all of these guys over Charles...

Chris Johnson

Darren McFadden

Maurice Jones Drew

Matt Forte

This guy gets it.

Apparently I don't get it. If you're in a shark league where you need to hit multiple early round home runs to compete, sure, take a chance on McFadden. But in a 'regular' league it doesn't make sense to drop a first round pick on him (maybe if you're at the turn and he's hanging around you do it if you plan on going RB RB). Jones Drew is holding out and coming off a 380 touch season. He has 3 consecutive seasons of at least 330 touches and was not exactly known for his durability during that time (despite missing only 2 games). Of the 7 RBs with at least 300 carries in 2010, all but Michael Turner (!) saw decreased production in 2011, many of them significantly.I have Forte ahead of Charles. I like Johnson, but not enough to have him 5th.

For people that are putting 4 or 5 people ahead of Charles (not including the big 3), instead of just stating your rankings and saying its obvious or some such useless phrase, actually post some numbers, or at least fully formed thoughts, to back up your argument.

What are your projections for Charles?

 

[EBF]

I'm not a big Hillis fan either, but given Charles's slight frame and lack of power, and the fact that previous coaches have never trusted him with a full workload, I find it pretty likely that Hillis will feature heavily as the Jacobs to his Bradshaw.

 

[LHUCKS]

I take all of these guys over Charles...

Chris Johnson

Darren McFadden

Maurice Jones Drew

Matt Forte

This guy gets it.

Apparently I don't get it. If you're in a shark league where you need to hit multiple early round home runs to compete, sure, take a chance on McFadden. But in a 'regular' league it doesn't make sense to drop a first round pick on him (maybe if you're at the turn and he's hanging around you do it if you plan on going RB RB). Jones Drew is holding out and coming off a 380 touch season. He has 3 consecutive seasons of at least 330 touches and was not exactly known for his durability during that time (despite missing only 2 games). Of the 7 RBs with at least 300 carries in 2010, all but Michael Turner (!) saw decreased production in 2011, many of them significantly.I have Forte ahead of Charles. I like Johnson, but not enough to have him 5th.

For people that are putting 4 or 5 people ahead of Charles (not including the big 3), instead of just stating your rankings and saying its obvious or some such useless phrase, actually post some numbers, or at least fully formed thoughts, to back up your argument.

That seems arbitrary. Jones-Drew had 299 carries in 2010. If he'd have had one more, you think he'd have been at risk of decreased production last year? He had great production in 2011. And, Jones-Drew is well known for his durability. He's missed 3 games total in his entire career.I have Jones-Drew, Forte, Chris Johnson, Ryan Mathews, Trent Richardson and Darren McFadden (of the names that have been mentioned) all above Charles. My reason is the ACL tear. I can only think of one RB, Jamal Lewis, to come back after an ACL tear and run for more than 1000 yards.

Maybe Jamaal Charles will buck that trend. But, particularly for a guy who relied on speed, I have no faith at all that he'll be back to normal, if ever, until next season.

 

[Grahamburn]

I don't think Hillis will be much of a factor

Thats where you are going wrong

I actally think he is right, Hillis will be a non factor by week 3 or 4 .Maybe a change of pace and some 1 yd TD runs , but basically worthless.

In Hillis' breakout 2010 season Brian DaBoll was his offensive coordinator. Brian DaBoll is the current offensive coordinator for the Chiefs. KC's coaching staff has already gone on record saying they'd like to get to 500 rushes this season. Hillis has already scored twice in the red zone this preseason. Jamaal Charles is returning from a torn ACL. There have been several studies done showing significant dropoffs in total production and production per touch for RBs in their first year following an ACL injury. Jamaal Charles' career high in carries is 230. Non-factor and worthless are not terms I would use to describe Peyton Hillis in 2012.

 

[Traders2001]

Yikes. No. Not for me anyway.Charles has never been a bell cow in his career, and I don't expect that to change with Hillis around. Add in the rust from his ACL injury and he's a guy I'd avoid.

he doesn't need to be a bell cow to put up great fantasy points....very undervalued

And he had Thomas Jones to share the load with him aniways, and sorry guys bt Jones was a far better talent then Hillis.Remember Mike Alstot , Hillis is the same type of player.

 

[Ryan99]

Jamal Lewis: Torn ACL in 2001. Bounced back in 2002 to rush for 1327 yards with a 4.3 avg. Then in 2003 rushed for 2066 yards with a 5.3 avg.Edgerrin James: Torn ACL in 2001. Following year in 2002, rushed for 989 in 14 games. In 2003, rushed for 1289 yards, then had back to back 1500+ yard seasons in '04 and '05.Willis McGahee: Torn ACL in the bowl game before being drafted. Missed entire rookie season in 2003 and bounced back next season with 1128 yards rushing with a 4.0 ypc.Frank Gore: Tore his left ACL in 2001 while in college. Rehabbed all of 2002, returned in 2003 only to tear his right ACL. Returned following year after switching jersey numbers and rushed for 1000+ yards in his last college year. In his rookie year in 2005, as a part timer, rushed for 608 yards with a 4.8 ypc. Following year in 2006, rushed for 1695 yards with a 5.4 ypc.Note: You might want to have precautionary surgery to strengthen a healthy ACL if you are a RB at "the U."Deuce McAllister: Torn ACL in 2007. Came back in 2008 to rush for 418 yards with a 3.9 avg.Ronnie Brown: Torn ACL in 2006. Came back in 2007 to rush for 946 yards.Kevin Smith: Torn ACL in 2009. Came back in 2010 to rush for 133 yards.So, only Ronnie Brown and Jamal Lewis came back to do reasonably well the following season, but only Lewis ran for more than 1000 yards. But, Lewis also tore his in preseason of 2001 and had a long rehab prior to coming back in 2002. He also didn't have to compete for carries with another starting RB the following season.The general rule that I've read is that it takes two years for most players to get back to normal following ACL tears. For that reason, I'm essentially crossing Charles and Peterson (and Mendenhall, Hightower and Moreno) off my list (unless I can get them as my RB4, which I don't think I can).

It might be informative to delve into these numbers a bit more:Kevin Smith: tear - mid December 2009, wasn't ready for the beginning of 2010, came back in October, played 6 games and got hurt againRonnie Brown: tear - mid October 2006, came back and ran for 214/916, 33/254 receiving. Very similar numbers to his two previous healthy seasons (207/907, 32/232 and 241/1008, 33/276)Deuce McAllister: tear - late september 2007, wasn't ready for the first game of the season. The saints were really spreading the ball around at that point ... they had 3 backs over 100 carries (Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas)Frank Gore: tear - 4th game (college) of 2003, ran for over 1000 yards in 2004 (still college)Edge: tear - late October 2001, ran poorly in 2002 but still had over 1300 total yards and 330 touchesWillis McGahee: tear - early January 2003 (all three ligaments), missed 2003, had a monster 2004So, I'm assuming this list is not comprehensive, but it looks like most of these guys had solid following years. The two guys who didn't were not ready to start the season and were (probably) rushed back mid season. Given this, their lack of production could easily have been due to lack of conditioning or something like that. Charles was hurt at the very beginning of last season and looks like he's ready to play.

 

[Ryan99]

That seems arbitrary. Jones-Drew had 299 carries in 2010. If he'd have had one more, you think he'd have been at risk of decreased production last year? He had great production in 2011. And, Jones-Drew is well known for his durability. He's missed 3 games total in his entire career.

OK, lets include MJD in the list of 300 carry RBs from 2010. Its now 1 out of 8 that improved, 1 out of 8 that stayed the same and 6 out of 8 that got worse, some significantly. These are not great odds. And this is not the only factor going against MJD right now.

 

[Ryan99]

What are your projections for Charles?

1400/6 combined is a conservative estimate, and he has high upside and not a lot of risk, imo (ill be sure to watch the Chiefs week 3 preseason game though).Pro tip: if your post consists solely of a quote and an emoticon, don't bother.

 

[LHUCKS]

1400/6 combined is a conservative estimate, and he has high upside and not a lot of risk, imo

"High Upside"...what exactly do you think his upside is coming off an ACL?"not a lot of risk"...guy is small coming off an ACL...risk all over the place here.