Chicago Bears D from a VBD persepctive (1 Viewer)

[tikitime]

I have man love for the Bears D, especally since they pulled my season out of the fire last night with the two TD performance. Presently in my league this is the list of non-QB players that have scored more points than the Bears D:

LT

LJ

That's it.

There are three games left in '06, and they have already set the record for most points scored by a Defense in a season (for all of my leagues). (Ravens are about 40 behind, but most importantly, the Vikings, who are third are nearly 100 points back of the Bears.)

I know it is welloutside the norm and conventional wisdom, but could the Bears be a 4th round pick next year, or do most think that it is impossible to rely on a D to be consistent. Considering their points, anything later than the 6th round is a ridiculous steal.

 

[tikitime]

no comments at all?

 

[Rounders]

Short answer: NO

In my league the Bears are #1 with 188 points, and the Ravens are #2 with 180.

So no way in my league, but I do think that they will get drafted higher next year than they were this year (9.5)

 

[steviey]

Not even the top D in our league and there are 15 non QBs ahead of them. But they still kick some ###

 

[thatguy]

Last year a guy in my league took the Raven's D in the 4th round based on VBD and it bit him in the ###. In that same league I took the Bears as probably the 10th D off the board. While from a VBD perspective they may very well warrant a 4th rounder, I doubt I'd take them nearly that early. I prefer to take a couple sleeper D's late and if they don't work out, I can usually find a good surprise on the waiver wire in the first couple weeks.

By the way, if they're 100 points better than the third best defense in your league, my guess is they'd warrant a 1st rounder based on VBD.

 

[Chase Stuart]

It entirely depends on your scoring system and starting lineup requirements. The Bears could be worth anywhere from worth a 1st round pick to a 10th round pick in leagues (I doubt in any league that includes a defense the Bears could be worth less than a 10th rounder).

Some leagues let you use up to 3 D/STs (at the flex spots) and D/STs score a lot, in which case the Bears would be incredibly valuable. I think in the standard, FBG scoring leagues, the Bears might be worth a 3rd round pick. For comparison's sake, right now the Bears are outscoring the #12 D/ST by more than Drew Brees is outscoring the #12 QB (although by only a few points).

The difference between RB#5 and RB#24 is about the same as the difference between the Bears D and the 12th ranked D.

If you could guarantee the production that you'd get from the Bears again next year, they'd be worth a low first round pick.

So the answer is the same as it almost always is. Based on your scoring system, starting lineup requirements, your opinion of how likely the Bears D is to be this good again, and your guess as to how your league-mates value the Bears, will tell you what round you should take them in.

 

[toppshelff]

In my scoring system, the Bears score 80 points more than the "pack" headed by Minny. If you look at RBs, LT is 160 points more than the "pack" behind LJ. QBs, you have only 40 points from 1st to 3rd with a "pack" behind 3rd.

Agree with all posters that it depends on your scoring system. However, I could make an argument that Chi should be taken just behind LT & LJ, and it wouldn't be unreasonable.

Of course, the answer to the question "When is the best time to pick the Chicago D?" is...

Immediately before the guy who plans to take them with his next pick.

That is the challenge. How patient do you think others will be? In one league I'm in, Defense scores boatloads of points and are worth a lot. I planned to take Chi in the 5th round, but they went in the 3rd. They were a steal...

 

[428143]

If Tommie Harris is fully recovered, and they can somehow re-sign Briggs, I would take them in the 5-7 round. Urlacher is probably the "oldest" stud on this defense, so they should be a top 5 NFL defense for quite some time.

 

[bentley]

For the sake of increasing discussion, I'll look at it from an auction perspective. I run an auction keeper league with a $200 salary cap this year. The Bears were the most valuable defense this year at $6. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they were protected next year for $11, which would put them in Todd Heap/Mushin Muhammad/Marc Bulger salary range for next year. They'd be a great value.

 

[PahtyTom]

Regardless of what they are worth right now, the variance from year to year on top defenses is too big to make it worthwhile to burn an early pick on any defense.

 

[toppshelff]

Regardless of what they are worth right now, the variance from year to year on top defenses is too big to make it worthwhile to burn an early pick on any defense.

I thought of that, too, but Chicago has been pretty consistent, and won't see many changes. I ask you how reliable RBs are beyond the obvious choices (think injuries)? Or WRs? I'm sure that somebody could run a quick analysis of players and defenses over the past 3 years, and the D variance would be pretty small for Chicago.Don't know, the data wouldn't lie if we had it.

 

[Widbil83]

I took the Bears in like the 5th round and they have bailed me out numerous times. I will take them that early next year to.

 

[Marc Levin]

Depends on your scoring system, but Hester alone might make the Bears worth a relatively early pick in most scoring systems.

4th round? I don't know if VBD favors that, but if they repeat their fantasy value from this year, it is hard to argue (your confidence in that happening, however, is the deciding factor)

 

[Marc Levin]

Regardless of what they are worth right now, the variance from year to year on top defenses is too big to make it worthwhile to burn an early pick on any defense.

I thought of that, too, but Chicago has been pretty consistent, and won't see many changes. I ask you how reliable RBs are beyond the obvious choices (think injuries)? Or WRs? I'm sure that somebody could run a quick analysis of players and defenses over the past 3 years, and the D variance would be pretty small for Chicago.Don't know, the data wouldn't lie if we had it.

I don't know if it is consistency from year to year that is the issue as much as the likelihood they will outscore the second best, the sixth best, and the twelfth best fantasy defenses.

 

[radballs]

Regardless of what they are worth right now, the variance from year to year on top defenses is too big to make it worthwhile to burn an early pick on any defense.

 

[Koya]

:headshot:

(bring it back, for moments like this)

 

[Chase Stuart]

Regardless of what they are worth right now, the variance from year to year on top defenses is too big to make it worthwhile to burn an early pick on any defense.

How much smaller would the variance have to be to make it worthwhile?

 

[Koya]

variance smariance.

There are always at least 15-20 defenses on the waiver wire at any point in 98% of the leagues out there.

You can play matchups and gain far more value using VBD by not wasting a 4th on a freakin' defense.

seriously

 

[Chase Stuart]

variance smariance.There are always at least 15-20 defenses on the waiver wire at any point in 98% of the leagues out there.You can play matchups and gain far more value using VBD by not wasting a 4th on a freakin' defense.seriously

How many FPs do you expect to get out of your D/ST spot using your strategy?

 

[46 ZONE]

variance smariance.There are always at least 15-20 defenses on the waiver wire at any point in 98% of the leagues out there.You can play matchups and gain far more value using VBD by not wasting a 4th on a freakin' defense.seriously

There are not 15-20 defenses available is most leagues, that's ridiculous.But, I agree that the Bears D (or any defense) does not merit a 4th round pick, ever, unless your scoring is out of whack.As a Bear homer, I still would not touch the defense until the middle rounds. Throw away the VBD analysis based on this year's stats. Chi D will be fine, but there's no guarantee they will come close to matching this year's numbers. Its not worth passing on a top flight WR or RB2. Get real.

 

[Knight who says Ni]

Last year a guy in my league took the Raven's D in the 4th round based on VBD and it bit him in the ###. In that same league I took the Bears as probably the 10th D off the board. While from a VBD perspective they may very well warrant a 4th rounder, I doubt I'd take them nearly that early. I prefer to take a couple sleeper D's late and if they don't work out, I can usually find a good surprise on the waiver wire in the first couple weeks.By the way, if they're 100 points better than the third best defense in your league, my guess is they'd warrant a 1st rounder based on VBD.

We had a similar thing happen last year - only I was the sucker who took Baltimore (I think it might have been the 5th). Never againNi

 

[PahtyTom]

again, no.

 

[MSULions]

no. never. ever. period.

 

[428143]

You can't judge them on today's game, or the rest of this season for that matter, as Tommie Harris is the beast that makes this defense click. Take into account their stud return man, they should go 2 or 3 rounds before the 2nd D...

In my main league, the D is the #3 scorer behind LJ and LT, scoff at that all you want, and I see no reason they can't do it again next season, assuming they return 10 of the 11 starters(possibly losing Briggs)

With Jerry Angelo/Lovie Smith in town, this D will dominate the league

Scoring(traditional)

30,22,9,19,23,25,18,5,18,26,14,33,19

 

[The Moz]

bears without Brown, Harris,Tank, and Vasher are really average ! with all those guys Bears are maybe the greatest defense in last 10 years

 

[Johnny Rock]

Case in point. My 28th ranked Rams Def/ST pitched a shutout against OAK and garnered 16 pts (not that I needed them).

My opponents' highly touted CHI Bears Def/ST, playing against the lowly Bucs, mustered a whopping 2 pts.

It's scenarios like this that led one of my quality leagues to drop Def/ST all together. Too random.