Chris Hogan, WR (1 Viewer)

[tone1oc]

So in this scenario basically Amendola, Dobson, Martin, Derby, and Dion Lewis all combine for only 18 receptions on the entire season?
And New England, starting Jimmy G. for 4 games, against a much tougher schedule than last year, will have the same number of passing TD and only 197 fewer passing yards than last year?

Just clarifying . . .

Re: Dion Lewis, I said I combined his stat line with James White which was 74 targets combined. 

Re: Amendola, I conceded that some of his production will be included in Mitchell's stat line as he will rotate in in the slot, my projections don't have that level of nuance so I specifically mentioned it.

Re: Dobson, Martin are jags and have done nothing with every opportunity they've been given.  They are depth and one if not both may be cut. 

With regard to the team.. take away 4 TD's (1 for each game JG starts) and distribute it over all of the recievers and it's a minimal impact.  I also believe that there was a lot big plays and left on the field, especially in the 2nd half last year.   197 fewer passing yards is equal to a delta of about 50 yards per game while JG is in.  Take away more and distribute it.  It's not a big difference.

 

[d1234]

In 2011, the year that Brady threw for 5200 yards, the #2 WR had 702 and 5 TD.  That is very Markus Wheatonish.  It is also useful in some circumstances.  As has been stated, you can pick any year and prove what you want. However I tend to agree that the evidence supports that when NE has two TE weapons the #2 Wr on the team isn't much of an asset.  Also we can be guaranteed that Brady won't be throwing for 5200 this year. It would be historic if he even threw for 4000.

 

[Tau837]

I did a team wide projection..  I did combine Tom Brady and Garrapalo as well as James White and Dion Lewis. 

...

I believe this is very plausible and inline with what will happen.

NE RBs had 143 targets last season. You are projecting RBs for a total of 88 targets. I don't find that plausible.

NE signed Bennett to a 1 year, $5.2M contract, and has been very successful deploying 2 TEs in the past. Bennett averaged 7 targets per game over the past 3 years, but you are projecting that he will get fewer than 5 targets per game. I don't find that plausible.

Making those positions plausible requires taking targets from WRs other than Edelman.

 

[d1234]

NE RBs had 143 targets last season. You are projecting RBs for a total of 88 targets. I don't find that plausible.

NE signed Bennett to a 1 year, $5.2M contract, and has been very successful deploying 2 TEs in the past. Bennett averaged 7 targets per game over the past 3 years, but you are projecting that he will get fewer than 5 targets per game. I don't find that plausible.

Making those positions plausible requires taking targets from WRs other than Edelman.

and the  WR 4+ need more targets.  I will guess 600 and 4.

 

[Anarchy99]

Not like he was going to have a big role or anything, but it does sound like Dobson is on his way out of town by either cut or trade.

 

[tone1oc]

NE RBs had 143 targets last season. You are projecting RBs for a total of 88 targets. I don't find that plausible.

NE signed Bennett to a 1 year, $5.2M contract, and has been very successful deploying 2 TEs in the past. Bennett averaged 7 targets per game over the past 3 years, but you are projecting that he will get fewer than 5 targets per game. I don't find that plausible.

Making those positions plausible requires taking targets from WRs other than Edelman.

And RBs had about 100 targets in 2014.   I do think I should give the RB's more of the pie.  Let's say I give 40 more targets to the RBs bumping them to about 130.  I'll take 10 from Hogan and the other 30 from the rest of the pass catchers, which is uneven distribution against Hogan.   That's about 6 less catches over the coarse of the year.  

If your take is that Bennett will be a focal point of the offense, that's fine, I don't think that is the case, but let's add 20(!) targets to his projected 78.   I'll take 5 more targets away from Hogan and 15 away from the other options,  that's 3 more catches gone.  

And all of this is assuming the other options stay healthy including Bennett, who has struggled with that his whole career.   I really don't believe Bennett gets 80 targets.

 

[tone1oc]

and the  WR 4+ need more targets.  I will guess 600 and 4.

Again, the WR4+ includes Amendola but some of his production is inherent in Mitchell's stat line.  So in reality I'm projecting about 97 targets for WR3+

 

[Tau837]

And RBs had about 100 targets in 2014.   I do think I should give the RB's more of the pie.  Let's say I give 40 more targets to the RBs bumping them to about 130.  I'll take 10 from Hogan and the other 30 from the rest of the pass catchers, which is uneven distribution against Hogan.   That's about 6 less catches over the coarse of the year.  

If your take is that Bennett will be a focal point of the offense, that's fine, I don't think that is the case, but let's add 20(!) targets to his projected 78.   I'll take 5 more targets away from Hogan and 15 away from the other options,  that's 3 more catches gone.  

And all of this is assuming the other options stay healthy including Bennett, who has struggled with that his whole career.   I really don't believe Bennett gets 80 targets.

So your view is that if you take 60 targets from WRs to add to RB/TE targets, only 15 of them come from Hogan. So you are presumably projecting something like 120 targets for Edelman and just 63 targets total for all WRs other than Edelman and Hogan.

I don't find that plausible. IMO you are working too hard to justify Hogan as a value when the merit isn't there barring injuries ahead of him. 

 

[tone1oc]

So your view is that if you take 60 targets from WRs to add to RB/TE targets, only 15 of them come from Hogan. So you are presumably projecting something like 120 targets for Edelman and just 63 targets total for all WRs other than Edelman and Hogan.

I don't find that plausible. IMO you are working too hard to justify Hogan as a value when the merit isn't there barring injuries ahead of him. 

I'm taking away 25% of those targets from the guy who is 4th in the pecking order according to you.  How exactly is that not plausible?   Please feel free to do your own projections or tell me how those targets would be distributed.

And Martellus Bennett getting 100 targets is a pipe dream anyways.

ETA: No I'm projecting 97 targets for WR3+ 

 

[Run It Up]

Its tough to project NE as a team because they will get targets in where they fit in. But less than 80 targets for Bennett seems criminally low.

 

[JetMaxx]

I'm big on Hogan because of his size in the red zone, Edelman takes a step back, and BB loves him. I'll call 1000/9 if he stays healthy.

 

[Tau837]

I'm taking away 25% of those targets from the guy who is 4th in the pecking order according to you.  How exactly is that not plausible?   Please feel free to do your own projections or tell me how those targets would be distributed.

And Martellus Bennett getting 100 targets is a pipe dream anyways.

ETA: No I'm projecting 97 targets for WR3+ 

Let's walk through this slowly.

1. You had 131 targets for Edelman, 106 for Hogan, and 97 for all other WRs.
   
2. If you take away 60 targets, with 15 coming from Hogan, the other 45 must come from Edelman and the other WRs.
   
3. I suggested that you might drop Edelman to 120, which means you would be forced to take 34 targets away from the rest of the WRs. That leaves them with 63 total.
   

 

[tone1oc]

Its tough to project NE as a team because they will get targets in where they fit in. But less than 80 targets for Bennett seems criminally low.

I don't think 5 targets a game for a TE2 is criminally low.  Only 16 TE's total eclipse 78 targets last year.

 

[tone1oc]

Let's walk through this slowly.

1. You had 131 targets for Edelman, 106 for Hogan, and 97 for all other WRs.
   
2. If you take away 60 targets, with 15 coming from Hogan, the other 45 must come from Edelman and the other WRs.
   
3. I suggested that you might drop Edelman to 120, which means you would be forced to take 34 targets away from the rest of the WRs. That leaves them with 63 total.
   

If I took away 60 targets, that's fitting in with your narrative that the RBs will get equal targets to 2015 and that Bennett is going to get 100 targets, something that only 9 TE's did last season.  Under this very shaky pretext, 20 of those would come from pass catchers not named Martellus Bennett, and 40 would come from Gronk/Edelman/Hogan/Mitchell/Amendola/Bennett.  And I'm taking away more of the target distribution from Hogan than anyone else. 

I have no idea what you are talking about with #3.
 

 

[Tau837]

I don't think 5 targets a game for a TE2 is criminally low.  Only 16 TE's total eclipse 78 targets last year.

And two of them now play for the Pats.

IMO part of the problem is that you are slotting them into positional rankings, e.g., calling Bennett TE2. You should consider ranking them as one group of targets. Combining White and Lewis as you did in your projection should result in White/Lewis being the #3 target and Bennett being the #4 target (with Gronk and Edelman as the top 2, obviously). There is zero doubt in my mind that Bennett will get more targets than every WR other than Edelman unless injuries (either to Bennett, Edelman, or multiple other WRs) skew the numbers.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Agree with this, but Edelman isn't exactly an Ironman.

Hogan feels like a great PPR lottery ticket to me...a player that goes undrafted in most drafts but could be a PPR monster if Edelman gets injured like he always does.

Im trying to draft Hogan late in all my leagues. 1-1 so far. My gut tells me he will be money this yr in ppr

 

[tone1oc]

And two of them now play for the Pats.

IMO part of the problem is that you are slotting them into positional rankings, e.g., calling Bennett TE2. You should consider ranking them as one group of targets. Combining White and Lewis as you did in your projection should result in White/Lewis being the #3 target and Bennett being the #4 target (with Gronk and Edelman as the top 2, obviously). There is zero doubt in my mind that Bennett will get more targets than every WR other than Edelman unless injuries (either to Bennett, Edelman, or multiple other WRs) skew the numbers.

IMO this is the problem with your thinking.  Gronk is not coming off the field, so when that Pats are in 3 WR sets MB is not even on the field, if Hogan is the guy in 2 WR sets he's going to be on the field far more than MB will be and I think he's better at getting open and will prove to be a better weapon.  

 

[Tau837]

If I took away 60 targets, that's fitting in with your narrative that the RBs will get equal targets to 2015 and that Bennett is going to get 100 targets, something that only 9 TE's did last season.  Under this very shaky pretext, 20 of those would come from pass catchers not named Martellus Bennett, and 40 would come from Gronk/Edelman/Hogan/Mitchell/Amendola/Bennett.  And I'm taking away more of the target distribution from Hogan than anyone else. 

I have no idea what you are talking about with #3.
 

Last season, the TEs and RBs combined for 312 targets on 629 pass attempts.

You project the TEs and RBs to combine for 291 targets on 624 pass attempts. So an overall reduction despite the fact that they signed Bennett to a $5M contract. I don't think they signed him to block.

If you try to fix this in your projections, it makes zero sense to consider removing targets from Gronk or Edelman, the top 2 targets. The only source to draw targets from is to pull from the rest of the WRs, including Hogan. You have the rest of the WRs projected for 203 targets total.

If you pull, say, 40 targets from them instead of 60, that is only an increase to RBs/TEs of 19 targets. So where do the 40 come from? If only 15 come from Hogan, then you are forced to lower WR3+ from 97 to 72. It's a zero sum game.

Anyway, I've made my points. It's clear you disagree, and that's fine. IMO Hogan is being overvalued, unless people are banking on injuries to other players.

 

[Tau837]

IMO this is the problem with your thinking.  Gronk is not coming off the field, so when that Pats are in 3 WR sets MB is not even on the field, if Hogan is the guy in 2 WR sets he's going to be on the field far more than MB will be and I think he's better at getting open and will prove to be a better weapon.  

I expect Bennett will play more snaps than Hogan this season, barring injury. We'll see.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

IMO this is the problem with your thinking.  Gronk is not coming off the field, so when that Pats are in 3 WR sets MB is not even on the field, if Hogan is the guy in 2 WR sets he's going to be on the field far more than MB will be and I think he's better at getting open and will prove to be a better weapon.  

I'm not sure why this precludes Bennett being on the field. He can be there when Gronk is there.

I always enjoy the speculation about the Pats' target distribution preseason. It seems to me they are always a 3 wheel offense. Gronk & Edelman are in. Who's wheel 3? In the past it has been Faulk, Hernandez, Vereeen, Lewis.

With Brady out IMO the situation has less value to begin with. With Lewis out though I don't know that White automatically becomes that guy. However I do think traditionally it has been a TE or RB.

 

[tone1oc]

Last season, the TEs and RBs combined for 312 targets on 629 pass attempts.

You project the TEs and RBs to combine for 291 targets on 624 pass attempts. So an overall reduction despite the fact that they signed Bennett to a $5M contract. I don't think they signed him to block.

If you try to fix this in your projections, it makes zero sense to consider removing targets from Gronk or Edelman, the top 2 targets. The only source to draw targets from is to pull from the rest of the WRs, including Hogan. You have the rest of the WRs projected for 203 targets total.

If you pull, say, 40 targets from them instead of 60, that is only an increase to RBs/TEs of 19 targets. So where do the 40 come from? If only 15 come from Hogan, then you are forced to lower WR3+ from 97 to 72. It's a zero sum game.

Anyway, I've made my points. It's clear you disagree, and that's fine. IMO Hogan is being overvalued, unless people are banking on injuries to other players.

Overvalued?  His current ADP in PPR is 12.10 and 13.04 in STD, or basically your last skill position pick.  

Last season, the Patriots also had Dion Lewis who is far better than White, and also a host of injuries at WR which opened up more targets for White even though he largely sucks.  It's fair to question that distribution from 2015 for RBs was skewed. 

I'm not trying to fix my projection, only trying to accommodate your opinions on how it will shake out.  

I expect Bennett will play more snaps than Hogan this season, barring injury. We'll see.

To this, I will agree to disagree and we shall see. 

 

[Anarchy99]

As mentioned earlier, the base offense for NE this year will be 2 TEs. Situation-ally, they may get away from that, but IMO, there will be 3 TE plays and other times 3 WR plays. Of the 2 TEs, it is true that Bennett is more likely to come off the field than Gronk is. However, Gronk is more likely to be asked to block either on running plays or passing plays, so that really isn't a huge advantage for Gronk over Bennett.

For whits and giggles, suppose we changed Bennett from a "TE2" to a "WR2." Then what? Bennett will serve as the slot receiver on a lot of plays.IMO, people are overlooking Bennett because they think of him as Gronk's back up. 

And if people are suggesting Hogan will be very productive if Gronk got hurt, then Bennett would be out of this world productive if Gronk gets hurt.

If I think I've learned anything over the years, it's that people over project the top producers / starters and under project the bottom feeders and fantasy irrelevant players. Depending upon the team, that bottom tier of miscreants typically accounts for 20-30% of a team's fantasy production. Yet most people don't make much effort to account for that. So on TEAM X, they potentially have 3 WR projected in the Top 40, a TE in the Top 10, a receiving back in the Top 10, and a QB with 6,000 passing yards. Yet we know that won't happen, but people still choose to make projections that way for some reason.

 

[tone1oc]

As mentioned earlier, the base offense for NE this year will be 2 TEs. Situation-ally, they may get away from that, but IMO, there will be 3 TE plays and other times 3 WR plays. Of the 2 TEs, it is true that Bennett is more likely to come off the field than Gronk is. However, Gronk is more likely to be asked to block either on running plays or passing plays, so that really isn't a huge advantage for Gronk over Bennett.

For whits and giggles, suppose we changed Bennett from a "TE2" to a "WR2." Then what? Bennett will serve as the slot receiver on a lot of plays.IMO, people are overlooking Bennett because they think of him as Gronk's back up. 

And if people are suggesting Hogan will be very productive if Gronk got hurt, then Bennett would be out of this world productive if Gronk gets hurt.

If I think I've learned anything over the years, it's that people over project the top producers / starters and under project the bottom feeders and fantasy irrelevant players. Depending upon the team, that bottom tier of miscreants typically accounts for 20-30% of a team's fantasy production. Yet most people don't make much effort to account for that. So on TEAM X, they potentially have 3 WR projected in the Top 40, a TE in the Top 10, a receiving back in the Top 10, and a QB with 6,000 passing yards. Yet we know that won't happen, but people still choose to make projections that way for some reason.

I think where my opinion differs from many is just how much Bennett will be used.  That is fair and I can't say you are wrong right now. 

I am not thinking of MB as just a TE2, but he is the 2nd TE.  When there is only 1 TE on the field, he will most likely not be.  My projections for him as their TE2 is for 142 pts in PPR, which would of been TE13 last season.  Nothing to sneeze at.  

Always trying to improve my projection process.  I will keep that last part in mind.

 

[Anarchy99]

My point about the projections is that the most likely repeatable numbers are the bottom feeders. IMO, people should start by allocating that and then layer on the good players. What usually ends up happening is people want the big numbers to work for the cream of the crop, and then then leave off the guys that nobody cares about. So in general, people will add together the top guys to get to the 4000/32 passing totals, but in reality they are leaving the ho hum guys that would make the real projection 5000/40. Most teams won't sniff that.

I am not saying that Hogan can't get the numbers to have a decent season, but a lot has to break his way to do so. I haven't done NE projections yet this year, but certain things that I see as pretty iron clad is the amount of targets for Gronk and Edelman don't change. The way to lower their totals is to have them miss games, but their per game numbers don't really change.

Not mentioned at all in here is what happens to the running game. Another topic not really being discussed is whether the passing attempts and production with Jimmy G. will be higher or lower than with Brady. That is an interesting one, and if people think NE will be ahead or close, then I would guess the totals will be lower. But if NE finds themselves behind early in the season, they may have a ton of passing attempts. There certainly is nothing to support that, but just a guess.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I think Bennett will pull many targets from the RBs (and even some from Gronk), fewer from the WRs.

Did the Pats have a good WR2 besides Lloyd in the Hernandez days? It is entirely possible that Hogan is better than their options back then. Also, IMO Hernandez was a better receiving talent than Bennett, so one cannot simply say Bennett gets the same number of targets.

One last point that may favor Hogan: isn't he a good blocker? So he would be on the field in more situations than Mitchell and Amendola. With 4 viable targets, Brady will check down to RBs fewer times and not have to simply force it to Gronk or Edelman. If Brady has full confidence in all 4 downfield options, he will hit the open guy. Brady lost confidence in various WR2s and didn't look their way after they started screwing up routes and dropping passes. If Hogan avoids these flubs, he will be better than their typical WR2.

In short, it is entirely possible, IMO, that it is Gronk and Edelman as targets 1a/1b, then Bennett and Hogan as targets 3a/3b, then the RBs. I don't have full confidence in him, but I do somewhat like Hogan to finish as a fantasy WR3, especially on a ppg basis when Brady is back.

 

[tone1oc]

My point about the projections is that the most likely repeatable numbers are the bottom feeders. IMO, people should start by allocating that and then layer on the good players. What usually ends up happening is people want the big numbers to work for the cream of the crop, and then then leave off the guys that nobody cares about. So in general, people will add together the top guys to get to the 4000/32 passing totals, but in reality they are leaving the ho hum guys that would make the real projection 5000/40. Most teams won't sniff that.

I am not saying that Hogan can't get the numbers to have a decent season, but a lot has to break his way to do so. I haven't done NE projections yet this year, but certain things that I see as pretty iron clad is the amount of targets for Gronk and Edelman don't change. The way to lower their totals is to have them miss games, but their per game numbers don't really change.

Not mentioned at all in here is what happens to the running game. Another topic not really being discussed is whether the passing attempts and production with Jimmy G. will be higher or lower than with Brady. That is an interesting one, and if people think NE will be ahead or close, then I would guess the totals will be lower. But if NE finds themselves behind early in the season, they may have a ton of passing attempts. There certainly is nothing to support that, but just a guess.

I got your point.. I'm going to dig in on it and see if I can find a trend.  

My projection for the bottom feeders (not Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell/Amendola, Gronk, MB, Blount, White/Lewis) would total 478 yards and 3 TDs, which could be a bit low.  I need to look into this more. 

 

[Tau837]

I got your point.. I'm going to dig in on it and see if I can find a trend.  

My projection for the bottom feeders (not Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell/Amendola, Gronk, MB, Blount, White/Lewis) would total 478 yards and 3 TDs, which could be a bit low.  I need to look into this more. 

The challenge on this is that a lot of the "bottom feeders" accumulate their RL numbers due to missed time by players higher on the depth chart. If you don't project injuries (and I'm not sure how anyone can do so accurately, so IMO it is silly to try), then you should necessarily be projecting lower numbers for the bottom feeders than they will collectively get IRL.

 

[tone1oc]

The challenge on this is that a lot of the "bottom feeders" accumulate their RL numbers due to missed time by players higher on the depth chart. If you don't project injuries (and I'm not sure how anyone can do so accurately, so IMO it is silly to try), then you should necessarily be projecting lower numbers for the bottom feeders than they will collectively get IRL.

Yep, this is especially true with 2015 Pats.  I'm going to try and account for games in which they didn't start, which gets me closer but def not perfect.  

You could also go about it by looking at these projections from a weekly average perspective.  IE Julian Edelman will get 8.2 TGTs, 5.5 RECs, 58.3 YDSs and 0.41 TDs per game if he and everyone else on offense is healthy.   If say Gronk were to get hurt, that would probably result in a positive multiplier for Edelman but a net negative for the offense as it will likely decrease pass and pace tendancies.    If I was paid to do projections or thought it was critical for me to do, I'd definitely recalibrate the projections week to week based on opponent and personnel.  Looking at this way the replacement level production is baked in.

 

[ZWK]

The challenge on this is that a lot of the "bottom feeders" accumulate their RL numbers due to missed time by players higher on the depth chart. If you don't project injuries (and I'm not sure how anyone can do so accurately, so IMO it is silly to try), then you should necessarily be projecting lower numbers for the bottom feeders than they will collectively get IRL.

This is true. In weeks 1-16 of 2014, for example, the Patriots' top 6 receivers combined to miss only 1 game. The target breakdown for those 15 games was:

134   WR Julian Edelman (in 14 games)
131   TE Rob Gronkowski
113   WR Brandon LaFell
73    RB Shane Vereen
35    WR Danny Amendola
30    TE Tim Wright
27    Other RBs
21    Other WRs
7    Other TEs

Last year, iron man Amendola was the only WR to play more than 11 games, so 5 different WRs had 30+ targets (with another 14 still going to Other WRs).

This year, I'd expect the Patriots' WR2-4 to soak up most of the extra targets if there are WR or TE injuries, with Bennett (and maybe their third TE) also adding targets if Gronk is injured.

 

[ZWK]

Here is an attempt at Patriots' target projections, along with projections for statlines:

Tar    Player    (Details)
127   WR Edelman    (In 13.5 games, on pace for 151 tar, 102/1099/6.2)
119   TE Gronkowski    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 131 tar, 83/1214/13.1)
100   RBs    (On pace for 100 tar, 67/606/2.7)
88    WR Mitchell    (In 14 games, on pace for 100 tar, 57/720/3.7)
80    TE Bennett    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 88 tar, 58/623/5.6)
57    WR Hogan    (In 14.5 games, on pace for 63 tar, 36/454/2.3)
30    WR Amendola    (In 13 games, on pace for 37 tar, 25/258/1.1)
24    Other WR/TE/other    (On pace for 24 tar, 14/154/0.9)

In total, Patriots QBs are projected for: 398/625, 4602 yards, 31.9 TDs.

For any one player's fantasy value, we mostly care about the 16-game pace that they're projected for. But since we can expect some players to miss time (though we don't know who in advance), those 16-game pace stats add up to more than the team total. 1.5 missed games is roughly average, and some players are projected to miss more than that based on injury history or current injuries.

From what I've heard, Mitchell seems more likely than Hogan to win the #2 WR role so he is projected for more targets. The first step for fantasy relevance for Hogan is beating out Mitchell for that role -- if he does then we can basically just flip their projections.

Last year's 143 RB targets was the highest that they've gone, by far (the previous high was 116), and was probably due at least in part to the injuries that swept through their WR corps. They also had lower RB target numbers when the Gronk+Hernandez duo was around (84 in 2012 and 58 in 2011, despite the presence of Danny Woodhead).

 

[CabinFever]

I'm big on Hogan because of his size in the red zone, Edelman takes a step back, and BB loves him. I'll call 1000/9 if he stays healthy.

I agree. Bill is a very moody/emotional guy. Remember when Moss first got to NE and Bill LOVED him and BAM, career year. Then Moss let's his contract/money get in the media and BAM, he's a red-headed step child, fazed out and he's gone. 

Last year he LOVED Dion Lewis (the sharks heard this early) and although no one had ever seen anything or have a reason to draft or believe he'd be a factor, Bill did, BAM he's one of the top 5 RBs in PPR leagues until he got hurt.

Enter Hogan, his long lost son. The both love lacrosse. He's a NE guy. He's a big target and gets open all the time and catches everything. Bill loves him. He's gonna make sure he's fed, and fed well. I honestly believe he'll have 1000+ and 10 TDs. And I promise I don't drink or smoke, I'm not Hogan's mom or dad and I'm not even a Pats fan   

 

[Run It Up]

With Lewis out a significant portion, unless Foster turns it on I would expect those RB targets to drop and to be cut up evenly between the WR2 and Bennett.

 

[Zero RB]

He's a bye-week fill-in at best. 

 

[RenegadeGM]

With Lewis out a significant portion, unless Foster turns it on I would expect those RB targets to drop and to be cut up evenly between the WR2 and Bennett.

say what now?

 

[Apple Juice]

I agree. Bill is a very moody/emotional guy. Remember when Moss first got to NE and Bill LOVED him and BAM, career year. Then Moss let's his contract/money get in the media and BAM, he's a red-headed step child, fazed out and he's gone. 

Last year he LOVED Dion Lewis (the sharks heard this early) and although no one had ever seen anything or have a reason to draft or believe he'd be a factor, Bill did, BAM he's one of the top 5 RBs in PPR leagues until he got hurt.

Enter Hogan, his long lost son. The both love lacrosse. He's a NE guy. He's a big target and gets open all the time and catches everything. Bill loves him. He's gonna make sure he's fed, and fed well. I honestly believe he'll have 1000+ and 10 TDs. And I promise I don't drink or smoke, I'm not Hogan's mom or dad and I'm not even a Pats fan   

If all this is true I'm actually buying into it.

 

[CabinFever]

If all this is true I'm actually buying into it.

It is all true. Seriously. There may have been something else Moss did to piss off Bill but I know he was mad when he talked about the contract to the press. I'm sure some NE homers/locals can chime in. 

 

[Phenomena]

A deep-ball & blocking specialist on a team with a 38 year-old QB that can't throw a great deep ball anymore and whom will be at best 4th in targets behind Edelman/Gronk/Bennett.  Likely 5th in targets if/when Dion Lewis gets healthy. Possibly still 5th in targets if White steps up into that role.

Pump the brakes a little bit. He's a fine flyer in the 12th+ rounds but I can already see the hype machine winding up to dumb levels.

 

[JetMaxx]

I agree. Bill is a very moody/emotional guy. Remember when Moss first got to NE and Bill LOVED him and BAM, career year. Then Moss let's his contract/money get in the media and BAM, he's a red-headed step child, fazed out and he's gone. 

Last year he LOVED Dion Lewis (the sharks heard this early) and although no one had ever seen anything or have a reason to draft or believe he'd be a factor, Bill did, BAM he's one of the top 5 RBs in PPR leagues until he got hurt.

Enter Hogan, his long lost son. The both love lacrosse. He's a NE guy. He's a big target and gets open all the time and catches everything. Bill loves him. He's gonna make sure he's fed, and fed well. I honestly believe he'll have 1000+ and 10 TDs. And I promise I don't drink or smoke, I'm not Hogan's mom or dad and I'm not even a Pats fan   

Targeted FA/Traded for skill position players fare well in this offense. 

 

[tone1oc]

A deep-ball & blocking specialist on a team with a 38 year-old QB that can't throw a great deep ball anymore and whom will be at best 4th in targets behind Edelman/Gronk/Bennett.  Likely 5th in targets if/when Dion Lewis gets healthy. Possibly still 5th in targets if White steps up into that role.

Pump the brakes a little bit. He's a fine flyer in the 12th+ rounds but I can already see the hype machine winding up to dumb levels.

You are projecting all of the worst case scenarios for Hogan as a rebuke of some projecting the best case scenario.   He's a WR3, with 24 inch python type of upside.

 

[Tau837]

With Lewis out a significant portion, unless Foster turns it on I would expect those RB targets to drop and to be cut up evenly between the WR2 and Bennett.

Why? Consider these splits from last season:

• Games 1-8: RBs had 71 targets; Lewis played in 7 games
  
• Games 9-16: RBs had 72 targets; Lewis played in 0 games
  

Why do you think this year will be different?

 

[tone1oc]

Why? Consider these splits from last season:

• Games 1-8: RBs had 71 targets; Lewis played in 7 games
  
• Games 9-16: RBs had 72 targets; Lewis played in 0 games
  

Why do you think this year will be different?

Healthy and improved WRs

 

[Run It Up]

Simply imo, more and better targets will be available, I might feel differently if it were Lewis. I'll settle for White but I'll absolutely take any alternative and I think Foster can beat him out, he just needs to get some reps.

 

[rickyg]

I think Hogan is being undervalued on these boards. Bill LOVES him. Bill also loved Dion Lewis last year. I think there will be more usage than most think. And in a dynasty, he's much younger than everyone else other than Mitchell. 

Bingo

 

[Anarchy99]

For those suggesting Hogan goes for 1000/10, please post your projections for the NE offense. 

 

[RenegadeGM]

Simply imo, more and better targets will be available, I might feel differently if it were Lewis. I'll settle for White but I'll absolutely take any alternative and I think Foster can beat him out, he just needs to get some reps.

You do know Foster is in Miami, right?  That's the second time you've mentioned him in competition in the Pats backfield.

 

[Anarchy99]

You do know Foster is in Miami, right?  That's the second time you've mentioned him in competition in the Pats backfield.

DJ Foster.

 

[JFS171]

DJ Foster.

Can someone give an update on him... I've not seen much of anything other than him being hurt for most of the preseason.  Can he actually crack the roster?  Blount, White, Gaffney, Bolden, Foster?

 

[Anarchy99]

Did a quick projection for the NE passing attack . . .

Edelman (14 G) 90-950-6
Gronk (15 G) 80-1100-12
Bennett (16 G) 60-650-7
Hogan (16 G) 40-450-2
Mitchell (14 G) 35-500-4
Lewis (8 G) 30-200-2
Amendola (9 G) 20-175-1
White (16 G) 20-175-1
Derby (16 G) 5-50-1
Blount (14 G) 5-40-0
Develin (16 G) 5-40-0
Misc 10-100-0

Total: 400-4430-36


 

 

[TripItUp]

Did a quick projection for the NE passing attack . . .

Edelman (14 G) 90-950-6  UNDER
Gronk (15 G) 80-1100-12 About right
Bennett (16 G) 60-650-7 UNDER
Hogan (16 G) 40-450-2 OVER
Mitchell (14 G) 35-500-4  OVER
Lewis (8 G) 30-200-2 Who Knows
Amendola (9 G) 20-175-1 About right
White (16 G) 20-175-1 OVER
Derby (16 G) 5-50-1
Blount (14 G) 5-40-0
Develin (16 G) 5-40-0
Misc 10-100-0

Total: 400-4430-36


 

 

[Anarchy99]

Can someone give an update on him... I've not seen much of anything other than him being hurt for most of the preseason.  Can he actually crack the roster?  Blount, White, Gaffney, Bolden, Foster?

Foster was said to be the best performer early in camp (when Blount and Lewis were not even practicing). At that point, White was working more with the WR group than the RB group. Since then, he may have been slightly dinged up and has not looked as good and Gaffney sort of came on. Gaffney has played a lot in the pre-sesaon games with mixed results. Some plays he looked great, but then you look at his stats and he must not have done much the majority of carries. He had a 44-yard TD run in the first game. In his other 28 carries, he has a 3.4 ypc. He's caught 5 passes for only 18 yards.

The Pats are mostly likely going to keep Blount, White, Bolden, Develin, and one other RB. It could be Gaffney or Foster (although both have practice squad eligibility). Or it could be a pick up from another team after cuts are made.