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Chris Hogan, WR (1 Viewer)

I don't disagree with that.

I went back and checked and in the last 5 seasons, (I know this will make Mavis angry) only 2 times have the Pats had 2 WRs get over 100 targets. I still think projecting Hogan for 90 targets seems pretty reasonable. Hogan is obviously going to see more than the 58 targets he got last year, it's just a matter of how much more.

The other thing to think about with him is, can he replicate is 17.9YPC that he had during the regular season (was 18.4 if you include playoffs). His career average is 13.1ypc. He would also have to keep up with his catch rate from last year, which was 67.9%, better than Brown, Julio, Beckham, Green, Evans, and Edelman. His catch rate for his career is around 64%. Now obviously, if he sees an increase in targets, keep up his catch rate and ypc, then yes, he's an absolute steal based on his ADP.  
His career rate is deflated by playing in Buffalo. His rates with Brady are the only ones I would care much about.

 
Since nobody knows and everyone is guessing I'm just going to toss out a stat line and see how close I get come the end of the year...

93 targets, 60 catches, 930 yards receiving, 7 TDs

which in PPR puts him at 195 points which equals WR 20-24, so low end WR2 in a twelve team league. 

 
Since nobody knows and everyone is guessing I'm just going to toss out a stat line and see how close I get come the end of the year...

93 targets, 60 catches, 930 yards receiving, 7 TDs

which in PPR puts him at 195 points which equals WR 20-24, so low end WR2 in a twelve team league. 
I think those are low, but if accurate I overpaid by double.  Won't be the first or last time.

 
Since nobody knows and everyone is guessing I'm just going to toss out a stat line and see how close I get come the end of the year...

93 targets, 60 catches, 930 yards receiving, 7 TDs

which in PPR puts him at 195 points which equals WR 20-24, so low end WR2 in a twelve team league. 
That would be more like WR30. Crowder was WR30 last year at 193.5.

 
It's pretty hard to project Hogan until we see how Cooks gets used.  Edelman has been a 9-10 target/game guy for each of the past four seasons, with and without Gronk in the lineup.  

The appeal of Hogan is that he is a cheap way of potentially accessing those and other targets.  Fresh off the injury news he was still basically free in drafts, or on waivers for leagues that already drafted.  I was fortunate to get him on a few rosters that way, but I'm not sure how great an investment he is if he starts going at, say, WR30.  It's similar to how I've been happy to grab Burkhead or James White as RB50, but not interested in Gillislee as RB25.

Hogan is basically a week 2 waiver wire pickup who got fast-tracked.

 
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timbrah_ho said:
Why does everyone assume Cooks is just gonna eat all the open targets? Guy is a streaky deep ball threat and always has been.
Maybe because some of us realize Cooks is not a streaky deep ball threat?

 
Since nobody knows and everyone is guessing I'm just going to toss out a stat line and see how close I get come the end of the year...

93 targets, 60 catches, 930 yards receiving, 7 TDs

which in PPR puts him at 195 points which equals WR 20-24, so low end WR2 in a twelve team league. 
TDs seem high to me. Gronk also missed time last year, and Mitchell should have a role upon his return. Also don't know if he'll catch ~65% of his targets, or average  15.5 YPC.

imma go with 90 targets, 50 rec, 725 yards & 5 TDs.

152.5 PPR points. Enjoy. :)  

 
Valid points. Do you think he keeps up the 68% catch rate or do we see it come down some?
I'd guess it comes down a little as maybe he sees opponents' better cornerbacks but I'd also think his rapport with Brady has improved as he gets more reps. 

I'd also say he's the biggest beneficiary in target increase, especially early in the season. 

Hogan gained Brady's trust last year, averaging 5.6 targets over the last nine games. Dwayne Allen has to really learn this offense and what Brady needs from him before having any big games.

I'll project 6.5 targets per game (104 total) for 66 receptions, 960 yards, 8 TDs. 

 
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Why can't people simply admit that we really have no idea how things are going to shake out in NE this season? Is anyone truly confident in their projections for ANY skill position player (outside of Brady and Gronk, but even Gronk would have to be on a per-game basis)? Edelman was the ONE other guy you could be confident in projecting going into the season.

We all know that there will be tons of fantasy points put up in NE so I get the excitement, but there are so many ways this could reasonably play out.

 
TDs seem high to me. Gronk also missed time last year, and Mitchell should have a role upon his return. Also don't know if he'll catch ~65% of his targets, or average  15.5 YPC.

imma go with 90 targets, 50 rec, 725 yards & 5 TDs.

152.5 PPR points. Enjoy. :)  
In 14 games playing with Brady last year (including the post season), Hogan had 47 receptions for 890 yards with 5 TD on 66 targets. He caught 71% of his targets.

 
In 14 games playing with Brady last year (including the post season), Hogan had 47 receptions for 890 yards with 5 TD on 66 targets. He caught 71% of his targets.
Yes I looked it up too. 

That was last year. And that % and average per catch represented career highs that I think he's unlikely to replicate, as evidenced by my projections. 

 
Why can't people simply admit that we really have no idea how things are going to shake out in NE this season? Is anyone truly confident in their projections for ANY skill position player (outside of Brady and Gronk, but even Gronk would have to be on a per-game basis)? Edelman was the ONE other guy you could be confident in projecting going into the season.

We all know that there will be tons of fantasy points put up in NE so I get the excitement, but there are so many ways this could reasonably play out.
Watch Brady get knocked out week 1 & basically render this entire topic moot. All those wasted pixels. lol

 
Yes I looked it up too. 

That was last year. And that % and average per catch represented career highs that I think he's unlikely to replicate, as evidenced by my projections. 
So Hogan will have worse numbers this year when he:

- should have a full season of Brady(ie, we at least know Brady doesn't have to miss 4 games)
- might be in better health (Hogan was dinged up 1/3 of the way into the season last year for a few weeks)
- another year in the system
- better chemistry with Brady
- and a starting role that he did not have for much of the season last year?

 
Why can't people simply admit that we really have no idea how things are going to shake out in NE this season? Is anyone truly confident in their projections for ANY skill position player (outside of Brady and Gronk, but even Gronk would have to be on a per-game basis)? Edelman was the ONE other guy you could be confident in projecting going into the season.

We all know that there will be tons of fantasy points put up in NE so I get the excitement, but there are so many ways this could reasonably play out.
Yup...one of my big peeves is when people dig their heels in and refuse to look at the upside and downside of a situation because almost every situation has this...IMO you can't be a legit fantasy owner if you don't have the ability to understand why your opinion may not work out...

 
Maybe because some of us realize Cooks is not a streaky deep ball threat?
I'm just going to quote Matt Harmon (reception perception) below. Do I think Cooks will do well in NE? Absolutely. But he is not a true #1 receiver in the mold of a M.Thomas, ODB, Baldwin, etc. 

Harmon: 

“Cooks does well at go routes and post routes, but has never been a consistently good route runner… [My] Reception Perception results have long showed that Brandin Cooks as a player isn’t at the level of some of the true No. 1 receivers in the league. It makes sense that not only was he passed up for that role in the Saints offense by rookie Michael Thomas, but was then acquired by a team in New England that rarely asks such a designation out of their receivers.”

And from PFF:

"I tested Harmon’s assertion that Cooks, throughout his career, has dominated on deep routes but has mostly underwhelmed everywhere else.

Among all 51 receivers to record at least 250 targets over the past three seasons, Cooks ranks second-best in fantasy points per target (3.0) on deep routes (corner routes, post routes, and go routes). On all other routes, he ranks 20th-best (1.71.) This was the second-greatest differential among all receivers.

Of course, we’ve known for some time that Cooks’ bread and butter is the deep ball. Since he entered the league, 35 percent of Cooks’ fantasy points have come on deep targets (balls traveling 20 yards or more through the air.) Among all wide receivers with at least 200 targets over that stretch, only four wide receivers have been more deep-target-dependent."

----

I realize this isn't a Cooks thread and to circle back - the relevance here is that Cooks is going to continue being a streaky long ball threat, which is what NE likely brought him on to do. They did not envision him in the Edelman possession receiver role. I'm willing to bet my 9th round pick (where I grabbed him) that Hogan is going to take up a lot of that slack. 

 
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In 14 games playing with Brady last year (including the post season), Hogan had 47 receptions for 890 yards with 5 TD on 66 targets. He caught 71% of his targets.
18.9YPC and 71% catch rate just seem crazy to keep up. If he does that with the increased targets, that's borderline WR1 territory. That would give him 64/1209/7 on 90 targets. 226.9pts in a PPR, which was Amari Cooper last season.

 
So Hogan will have worse numbers this year when he:

- should have a full season of Brady(ie, we at least know Brady doesn't have to miss 4 games)
- might be in better health (Hogan was dinged up 1/3 of the way into the season last year for a few weeks)
- another year in the system
- better chemistry with Brady
- and a starting role that he did not have for much of the season last year?
I have no idea. I lost my crystal ball. I gave you my projections. What I do know is that this ain't last year. Gronk is healthy (for now), they went out and added Cooks (presumably because they wish to throw him the ball, but hey, maybe he's a super popular locker room guy and makes a mean quiche?) and the team is loaded with players who can catch the ball. 

I know two things: 1. If Brady is healthy he's gonna have a monster year.  2. If healthy Gronk is his #1 target. 

everything else is debatable. IMO it's a crapshoot and you're as likely to be correct as I am or as anyone is. 

My reasoning for decline in Hogan's stats is based on my disbelief he'll repeat career highs in % & average per, Pats spreading the ball, rotating receivers, lots of mouths to feed with receiving RBs and perhaps most significantly, the addition of Brandin Cooks. 

If you feel otherwise, I won't tell you you're wrong - they're all just like, opinions, maaaaan. 

 
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I'm just going to quote Matt Harmon (reception perception) below. Do I think Cooks will do well in NE? Absolutely. But he is not a true #1 receiver in the mold of a M.Thomas, ODB, Baldwin, etc. 

Harmon: 

“Cooks does well at go routes and post routes, but has never been a consistently good route runner… [My] Reception Perception results have long showed that Brandin Cooks as a player isn’t at the level of some of the true No. 1 receivers in the league. It makes sense that not only was he passed up for that role in the Saints offense by rookie Michael Thomas, but was then acquired by a team in New England that rarely asks such a designation out of their receivers.”

And from PFF:

"I tested Harmon’s assertion that Cooks, throughout his career, has dominated on deep routes but has mostly underwhelmed everywhere else.

Among all 51 receivers to record at least 250 targets over the past three seasons, Cooks ranks second-best in fantasy points per target (3.0) on deep routes (corner routes, post routes, and go routes). On all other routes, he ranks 20th-best (1.71.) This was the second-greatest differential among all receivers.

Of course, we’ve known for some time that Cooks’ bread and butter is the deep ball. Since he entered the league, 35 percent of Cooks’ fantasy points have come on deep targets (balls traveling 20 yards or more through the air.) Among all wide receivers with at least 200 targets over that stretch, only four wide receivers have been more deep-target-dependent."

----

I realize this isn't a Cooks thread and to circle back - the relevance here is that Cooks is going to continue being a streaky long ball threat, which is what NE likely brought him on to do. They did not envision him in the Edelman possession receiver role. I'm willing to bet my 9th round pick (where I grabbed him) that Hogan is going to take up a lot of that slack. 
The implication of course is that Cooks is what he is and can't ever improve despite moving to a team that's known for making trash heap WRs into stars?

all based on a whopping 2 NFL seasons. 

yeah - imma have to take Harmon with a huge grain of salt here. 

 
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The implication of course is that Cooks is what he is and can't ever improve despite moving to a team that's known for making trash heap WRs into stars?

all based on a whopping 2 NFL seasons. 

yeah - imma have to take Harmon with a huge grain of salt here. 


I do agree that Bellicheck, out of any coach in the league, likely will find a way to utilize his strengths. But Cooks probably is what he is to a certain degree. There's a reason the Saints let him leave instead of making him their #1. 

 
I do agree that Bellicheck, out of any coach in the league, likely will find a way to utilize his strengths. But Cooks probably is what he is to a certain degree. There's a reason the Saints let him leave instead of making him their #1. 
Well, that and Thomas is a BEAST. 

 
18.9YPC and 71% catch rate just seem crazy to keep up. If he does that with the increased targets, that's borderline WR1 territory. That would give him 64/1209/7 on 90 targets. 226.9pts in a PPR, which was Amari Cooper last season.
Clearly we are all just guessing, so your guess is no better or worse than mine or anyone else's.

For starters, I would think that the routes Hogan will be running this year would play into his catch rate. If he takes on some of Edelman's short routes. that should keep his catch percentage high (but will reduce his YPC).

I would guess his targets will go up, his YPC will go down, and his catch percentage drops a little but not a ton. What he did in Buffalo has no bearing on anything to do with NE (reference Welker in MIA or Moss in OAK as examples).

Hogan had 66 targets in 14 games last year playing with Brady (4.7 per game). I expect that to go up to 7 per game this year given his increase in snaps and 160 targets freed up by the loss of Edelman. Over a full season, that would turn out to be 112 targets.

Call it a 65% catch rate, 14.5 YPC, and that would project out to 73 receptions, 1059 yards, and make up a number of TD's (let's say 6). 

If I had to play with the numbers from that, I might go more targets and a lower YPC, but than the number of receptions would probably go up.

 
Clearly we are all just guessing, so your guess is no better or worse than mine or anyone else's.

For starters, I would think that the routes Hogan will be running this year would play into his catch rate. If he takes on some of Edelman's short routes. that should keep his catch percentage high (but will reduce his YPC).

I would guess his targets will go up, his YPC will go down, and his catch percentage drops a little but not a ton. What he did in Buffalo has no bearing on anything to do with NE (reference Welker in MIA or Moss in OAK as examples).

Hogan had 66 targets in 14 games last year playing with Brady (4.7 per game). I expect that to go up to 7 per game this year given his increase in snaps and 160 targets freed up by the loss of Edelman. Over a full season, that would turn out to be 112 targets.

Call it a 65% catch rate, 14.5 YPC, and that would project out to 73 receptions, 1059 yards, and make up a number of TD's (let's say 6). 

If I had to play with the numbers from that, I might go more targets and a lower YPC, but than the number of receptions would probably go up.
Oh I agree, I have no problem with admitting we're all spitballing here. It's easier to understand when people are actually making projections though instead of just telling others they are wrong.

For certain, we're all in agreement that Hogan's targets will go up. You're not getting an argument from me. I think he's probably in the 90ish range. I seem him more as a WR3ish that borders on the WR4 line. You clearly have him as a mid-range WR2. Certainly within the range of outcomes.

For me personally, I just have a hard time seeing him getting more targets than Cooks, who I believe sees somewhere around 115. But, what do I know lol.

 
There's a lot of passion in this topic. So I'm gonna go ahead and do an unofficial contest. 

Post up Hogan projections for the 2017 regular season. Targets, Caches, yards & ReTDs; rushes, RuYd & RuTd

closest to all metrics wins a bottle of award-winning hot sauce. Entry closes 5 mins before kickoff next Thursday night. 

Good luck! 

 
I realize this isn't a Cooks thread and to circle back - the relevance here is that Cooks is going to continue being a streaky long ball threat, which is what NE likely brought him on to do. They did not envision him in the Edelman possession receiver role. I'm willing to bet my 9th round pick (where I grabbed him) that Hogan is going to take up a lot of that slack. 
You think that the Pats traded away a first round pick and subsequently took on the fifth year option at very good money to get a guy to be a streaky deep ball threat for them? You may want to read up on Belichick's history/man love with Cooks. I think maybe he knows a bit about football, perhaps even more than a fantasy football writer.

None of that diminishes your pick of Hogan, there's room enough for him to have success as well - this Brady guy throwing the ball is pretty good.

 
You think that the Pats traded away a first round pick and subsequently took on the fifth year option at very good money to get a guy to be a streaky deep ball threat for them? You may want to read up on Belichick's history/man love with Cooks. I think maybe he knows a bit about football, perhaps even more than a fantasy football writer.

None of that diminishes your pick of Hogan, there's room enough for him to have success as well - this Brady guy throwing the ball is pretty good.
Like I said, could be a super team guy in the locker room, making quiche every Saturday night and hosting brunch before games? 

Anything's possible? 

 
I do agree that Bellicheck, out of any coach in the league, likely will find a way to utilize his strengths. But Cooks probably is what he is to a certain degree. There's a reason the Saints let him leave instead of making him their #1. 
The Saints did not let him leave, they received a first round pick for him and saved cap room - they desperately needed both to improve their horrendous defense.

 
The Saints did not let him leave, they received a first round pick for him and saved cap room - they desperately needed both to improve their horrendous defense.
Fine but metrics don't lie. My point isn't that Cooks sucks...It's just that he is what he is and I think Hogan benefits more. Kind of like Cooks will benefit some but he was gonn eat in this offense anyway, whereas Hogan has nothing but green grass and upside considering this basically forces him into a showcase role. 

 
Of all the stats and projections being thrown around, Anarchy's is the most telling:

"In his last 9 games last year, Hogan put up 36-621-4. That projects to 64-1104-7 over 12 games."

This is without him having the clearer role he does now. With even more chemistry built up with Brady, this points to a big year. Where his ADP should be at I don't know. He was taken in the 4th in a FFPC yesterday which seems steep (but not terribly far off).

 
There's a lot of passion in this topic. So I'm gonna go ahead and do an unofficial contest. 

Post up Hogan projections for the 2017 regular season. Targets, Caches, yards & ReTDs; rushes, RuYd & RuTd

closest to all metrics wins a bottle of award-winning hot sauce. Entry closes 5 mins before kickoff next Thursday night. 

Good luck! 
111 Targets, 82-1150-11

7 rushes, 52 yards, 0 TDs

 
Fine but metrics don't lie. My point isn't that Cooks sucks...It's just that he is what he is and I think Hogan benefits more. Kind of like Cooks will benefit some but he was gonn eat in this offense anyway, whereas Hogan has nothing but green grass and upside considering this basically forces him into a showcase role. 
Well I was only really arguing against your incorrect assessment of Cooks' game - but if your point is now that Edelman's injury only mildly affects Cooks' potential production then I would agree - because I figured Cooks would have more targets than Edelman to begin with and I think the Edelman injury should only give him a slight bump up. 

The Edelman injury is obviously going to help Hogan because that opens up a bunch of targets. Personally I'm not sure the Edelman "role" (or targets) will go exclusively to Hogan, as I think Amendola has had success in that role before and I think Mitchell could become more involved once healthy. Hogan is a good player, and truth be told, he is a better physical talent than Edelman for whatever that is worth. Belichick also loved him and targeted taking him away from Buffalo last offseason, so he has that going for him as well. His ceiling is pretty high now - but it's far from a given he reaches it.

 
Of all the stats and projections being thrown around, Anarchy's is the most telling:

"In his last 9 games last year, Hogan put up 36-621-4. That projects to 64-1104-7 over 12 games."

This is without him having the clearer role he does now. With even more chemistry built up with Brady, this points to a big year. Where his ADP should be at I don't know. He was taken in the 4th in a FFPC yesterday which seems steep (but not terribly far off).
I don't remember what I typed at the time, but it should say projected over 16 games. 

 
There's a lot of passion in this topic. So I'm gonna go ahead and do an unofficial contest. 

Post up Hogan projections for the 2017 regular season. Targets, Caches, yards & ReTDs; rushes, RuYd & RuTd

closest to all metrics wins a bottle of award-winning hot sauce. Entry closes 5 mins before kickoff next Thursday night. 

Good luck! 
90/62/930/6/26/0

 
I get that, but if Hogan gets 150 targets, what does that leave Cooks, Gronk, White/RBs?
The only way I could see Hogan getting 150 targets is if Gronk went down as well. I only wanted to show that the slot guy has been showered with targets for a literal decade.

Before the injury I had Edelman projected to receive 130 targets and I think it's possible those slide over to Hogan.

 
The only way I could see Hogan getting 150 targets is if Gronk went down as well. I only wanted to show that the slot guy has been showered with targets for a literal decade.

Before the injury I had Edelman projected to receive 130 targets and I think it's possible those slide over to Hogan.
Hogan lined up in the slot a lot last year but he's not the same kind of slot guy that Welker and Edelman were/are which is evidenced by his ypc versus theirs. Amendola plays much more similar to Welker/Edelman and could absorb many of those type of targets. Now I do not think Amendola is going to see 130 targets (even if there was a possibility that he could do so and stay healthy) but I do think he will see time in the "short slot" which will keep Hogan from seeing 130 targets.

 
Here was last year's target distribution:

Edelman - 159

White - 86

Bennett - 73

Hogan - 58

Mitchell - 48

Gronk - 38

Amendola - 29

Lewis - 24

No one else saw more than 8

So where does Cooks fit into this? Unless you think the Pats are going to throw the ball another 100+ times this season, where do all of Hogan's targets come from? Gronk's numbers have to go up, right? As long as he's healthy, he'll probably see 75+ targets. Amendola, if he's healthy probably sees 60 or so. White may not see 86 again, but White/Lewis/Burkhead combined could probably see around 100. Dwyane Allen is probably in the 40s target wise.

Maybe instead of just continually coming in here and saying random stuff, do a little research and report back.
you are using last year as the target baseline which is a mistake IMO for several reasons.  last year the Pats offense had 550 pass attempts...the prior 5 years they have averaged 623 attempts...this team is built much more for passing as opposed to pounding the ball and think the 623 or around that figure s/b used when trying to determine the future target pie.   

 
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you are using last year as the target baseline which is a mistake IMO for several reasons.  last year the Pats offense had 550 pass attempts...the prior 5 years they have averaged 623 attempts...this team is built much more for passing as opposed to pounding the ball and think the 623 or around that figure s/b used when trying to determine the future target pie.   
I'd rather see per game estimates

 
Of all the stats and projections being thrown around, Anarchy's is the most telling:

"In his last 9 games last year, Hogan put up 36-621-4. That projects to 64-1104-7 over 12 games."

This is without him having the clearer role he does now. With even more chemistry built up with Brady, this points to a big year. Where his ADP should be at I don't know. He was taken in the 4th in a FFPC yesterday which seems steep (but not terribly far off).
And it's also with a hurt Gronk, and no Brandin Cooks, who they traded a lot to get. 

Question: if Hogan were all that & a bag of chips, why'd they go trade a 1st round pick for Cooks? Seems pretty active for a team so set at WR. 

 
And it's also with a hurt Gronk, and no Brandin Cooks, who they traded a lot to get. 

Question: if Hogan were all that & a bag of chips, why'd they go trade a 1st round pick for Cooks? Seems pretty active for a team so set at WR. 
Why not? The Pats cant play 3 games without losing a skill position player.

They went out and got Hogan if you dont remember. 

The trade for Cooks was a no brainer, a great talent for the 32nd overall in a class they didnt like anyone in.

 
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There's a lot of passion in this topic. So I'm gonna go ahead and do an unofficial contest. 

Post up Hogan projections for the 2017 regular season. Targets, Caches, yards & ReTDs; rushes, RuYd & RuTd

closest to all metrics wins a bottle of award-winning hot sauce. Entry closes 5 mins before kickoff next Thursday night. 

Good luck! 
88/60/870/7 18/0

 

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