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Chris Hogan, WR (2 Viewers)

psychobillies said:
Not disagreeing, but the Saints used the 32nd pick on an OT.
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Thanks - I guess that's where the value was with the pick, but at the time the reports were that the impetus for the trade was to improve their defense. In fact I think they nearly traded the pick back for Malcolm Butler at one point.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
There's a lot of passion in this topic. So I'm gonna go ahead and do an unofficial contest. 

Post up Hogan projections for the 2017 regular season. Targets, Caches, yards & ReTDs; rushes, RuYd & RuTd

closest to all metrics wins a bottle of award-winning hot sauce. Entry closes 5 mins before kickoff next Thursday night. 

Good luck! 
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132 targets 74 catch 1180yds 7 TD, 10 rushes 42 yards 0TD.

 
Rogi said:
And those numbers are from when Edelman was playing, right?  If so, we could maybe assume some of Edelman's targets will go to Hogan.
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Plus no Bennett and with a healthy Gronk how many other targets will other TEs see?

My Target projections---

Cooks 140, Gronk 130, Hogan 100, RBs 120, Allen 40 and other WR/Options 90 ...Thats 620 targets and Brady makes over 600 pass attempts most years plus MFL projects 636 for 2017. So 100 targets for Hogan is very reasonable. I guess 65/900/8 after re-accessing the projections, is fair in my eyes...in fact that is more than reasonable as a Patriot #2.  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
And it's also with a hurt Gronk, and no Brandin Cooks, who they traded a lot to get. 

Question: if Hogan were all that & a bag of chips, why'd they go trade a 1st round pick for Cooks? Seems pretty active for a team so set at WR. 
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Has NE ever been set at WR? It's fluid just about every year and Edelman is made of glass.

I believe Hogan was trending up even before the injury. Not into the stratosphere or anything, but I think this injury adds 50 targets to his year. 

My projection: 65/1000/8

 
My projected NE targets:

Cooks 135

Burkhead / Lewis / White 125

Gronk 120

Hogan 90

Amendola 55

Mitchell 50

Allen 40

Others 10

Total 625

 
74/953/7 - Brandon LaFell from 2014 with Gronk and Edelman playing basically full seasons.

So, Gronk is Gronk, Cooks is Edelman, Hogan is LaFell (plus a little bit)

77/1004/8 

 
Would anyone have the balls to start all 3 of Cooks, Gronk and Hogan? 

You know you are guaranteed 3 TDs and almost 300 yards combined on average a week. 

Seems a Patriots heavy lineup could be a nice strategy if you get it. Go for Brady, K and D too, shoot. RBs, stay away from. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
What fabulous insight, well reasoned and supported by examples. Do you have a newsletter I can subscribe to, or perhaps an informational pamphlet? 
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I do. And if you give me your address, I'll deliver it to your doorstep. And if it's in a bag that is on fire, you should definitely step on it immediately  :P

 
Mavis said:
Would anyone have the balls to start all 3 of Cooks, Gronk and Hogan? 

You know you are guaranteed 3 TDs and almost 300 yards combined on average a week. 

Seems a Patriots heavy lineup could be a nice strategy if you get it. Go for Brady, K and D too, shoot. RBs, stay away from. 
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I wouldn't want to face that lineup on a given Sunday knowing what that offense can do!

 
Jed said:
Has NE ever been set at WR? It's fluid just about every year and Edelman is made of glass.

I believe Hogan was trending up even before the injury. Not into the stratosphere or anything, but I think this injury adds 50 targets to his year. 

My projection: 65/1000/8
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Remember Deion "Brady's favorite target" Branch? 

I'm having flashbacks. I had him his injury season - when he was listed as questionable every week. Every week after having ACL surgery. lol

Not saying Hogan is hurt, just making a comparison to past NEP "locks" at WR. 

 
I'm sure this won't effect Hogans targets at all... :whistle:  

Malcolm Mitchell - WR -  Patriots

Patriots WR Malcolm Mitchell (knee) has been cleared to practice.

Mitchell had limited to individual drills. He's missed most of the preseason, appearing in just one game. Mitchell's return to practice gives him a chance to be ready for Week 1.

Source: Boston Herald 

Aug 30 - 5:46 PM
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I'm sure this won't effect Hogans targets at all... :whistle:  
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Mitchell has a long term, lingering, and border line chronic knee issue. Sure, if he were healthy and had practiced with everyone else at mini camp, OTA's, and training camp, then sure, he could be ready to go and do something at the start of the season. From what I can tell, he hasn't practiced since before the Super Bowl. From what I have seen and heard, his knee isn't really better, and it's at the point he has to suck it up and deal with the pain and play.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Mitchell has a long term, lingering, and border line chronic knee issue. Sure, if he were healthy and had practiced with everyone else at mini camp, OTA's, and training camp, then sure, he could be ready to go and do something at the start of the season. From what I can tell, he hasn't practiced since before the Super Bowl. From what I have seen and heard, his knee isn't really better, and it's at the point he has to suck it up and deal with the pain and play.
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Didn't he play in the first preseason game?

 
BobbyLayne said:
My projected NE targets:

Cooks 135

Burkhead / Lewis / White 125

Gronk 120

Hogan 90

Amendola 55

Mitchell 50

Allen 40

Others 10

Total 625
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Anybody else want to project where the targets will go this year?

2016 

RB - 130 WR - 296 TE - 114

2015

RB - 164 WR - 311 TE - 169

2014

RB - 105 WR - 359 TE - 170

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Didn't he play in the first preseason game?
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No. He hasn't done anything with the team until this week, and there still isn't a true sense of what he is able to do as practices are closed now (except media access at the beginning which is mostly warm ups).

 
Hogan's 58 targets last year was an unusually low number for New England's WR2. In the Gronk era:

2016: 58 targets in 15 games for Hogan (62 target pace); Gronk missed a bunch of games
2015: 87 targets in 14 games for Amendola (99 target pace); Edelman missed a bunch of games
2014: 119 targets in 16 games for Lafell; just a few missed games from Gronk/Edelman
2013: 83 targets in 12 games for Amendola (111 target pace); Gronk missed a bunch of games
2012: 131 targets in 16 games from Lloyd; Gronk missed 5 games
2011: 113 targets in 14 games from Hernandez (129 target pace); 90 targets in 15 games from Branch (96 target pace); no missed games from Gronk+Welker

So last year seems like a bad starting point for projecting Hogan this year, since it was an unusual season for the Patriots' WR2. Target got divided up pretty evenly between Hogan and Mitchell, along with Bennett, in a way that usually hasn't happened with the Gronk + Edelman/Welker Patriots.

If things play out more like 2011-15, and Hogan is their legit WR2, then it seems likely that he'll get 100+ targets (per 16 games).

Of course there still is some risk of last year's WR2BC continuing, possibly with Amendola joining in for a larger chunk (given that Edelman is the one who's out). On the other hand, there's also a chance of the WR2 role being bigger than usual, if Cooks is less of a target hog than Edelman/Welker.

 
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ZWK said:
Hogan's 58 targets last year was an unusually low number for New England's WR2. In the Gronk era:

2016: 58 targets in 15 games for Hogan (62 target pace); Gronk missed a bunch of games
2015: 87 targets in 14 games for Amendola (99 target pace); Edelman missed a bunch of games
2014: 119 targets in 16 games for Lafell; just a few missed games from Gronk/Edelman
2013: 83 targets in 12 games for Amendola (111 target pace); Gronk missed a bunch of games
2012: 131 targets in 16 games from Lloyd; Gronk missed 5 games
2011: 113 targets in 14 games from Hernandez (129 target pace); 90 targets in 15 games from Branch (96 target pace); no missed games from Gronk+Welker

So if Hogan is their legit WR2 and trends continue, then it seems likely that he'll get 100+ targets (per 16 games).

The main thing that changed last year is that the #3 role among WRs/TEs got divided up pretty evenly between Hogan, Mitchell, and Bennett. There is some risk of that happening again, possibly with Amendola joining in for a larger chunk (given that Edelman is the one who's out). But there's also a chance of the WR2 role being bigger than usual, if Cooks is less of a target hog than Edelman/Welker.
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Last year was Hogan's first year with Brady. He has developed some rapport now. Totally different story. Brady needs trust and the guys that have been there are going to have a better chance of gaining his trust. Cooks is the new guy and both he and Brady have openly acknowledged that chemistry will be an issue this year at least early on. Remember Brandon Lloyd? Hogan has a big advantage there. Dola has Brady's trust but is nowhere near the athlete that Hogan is so his contribution will be more limited. 40-50 targets max for Dola IMO. Excuse if these points have already been made.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
There's a lot of passion in this topic. So I'm gonna go ahead and do an unofficial contest. 

Post up Hogan projections for the 2017 regular season. Targets, Caches, yards & ReTDs; rushes, RuYd & RuTd

closest to all metrics wins a bottle of award-winning hot sauce. Entry closes 5 mins before kickoff next Thursday night. 

Good luck! 
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These were fun last year...here's my wild guess:

80T, 52R, 705RYds, 5RTDs; 1 rush, 6 yards, 0 TD.

 
Why do people keep bringing up last year and including the outcomes from Jimmy G and Brissett? Those are irrelevant.

There has not been a time when they added a WR1 and two RB's, had Gronk coming back, and had Edelman out for the season before. So like them, we will have to break new ground on projecting what will happen. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Why do people keep bringing up last year and including the outcomes from Jimmy G and Brissett? Those are irrelevant.

There has not been a time when they added a WR1 and two RB's, had Gronk coming back, and had Edelman out for the season before. So like them, we will have to break new ground on projecting what will happen. 
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I don't think 2014 is a terrible comparison for this year. Replace Edelman with Cooks and Lafell with Hogan. Granted they only really had Vereen in the backfield catching passes but he had almost 80 targets and Gronk had 130 targets.

 
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ZWK said:
Hogan's 58 targets last year was an unusually low number for New England's WR2. In the Gronk era:

2016: 58 targets in 15 games for Hogan (62 target pace); Gronk missed a bunch of games
2015: 87 targets in 14 games for Amendola (99 target pace); Edelman missed a bunch of games
2014: 119 targets in 16 games for Lafell; just a few missed games from Gronk/Edelman
2013: 83 targets in 12 games for Amendola (111 target pace); Gronk missed a bunch of games
2012: 131 targets in 16 games from Lloyd; Gronk missed 5 games
2011: 113 targets in 14 games from Hernandez (129 target pace); 90 targets in 15 games from Branch (96 target pace); no missed games from Gronk+Welker

So last year seems like a bad starting point for projecting Hogan this year, since it was an unusual season for the Patriots' WR2. Target got divided up pretty evenly between Hogan and Mitchell, along with Bennett, in a way that usually hasn't happened with the Gronk + Edelman/Welker Patriots.

If things play out more like 2011-15, and Hogan is their legit WR2, then it seems likely that he'll get 100+ targets (per 16 games).

Of course there still is some risk of last year's WR2BC continuing, possibly with Amendola joining in for a larger chunk (given that Edelman is the one who's out). On the other hand, there's also a chance of the WR2 role being bigger than usual, if Cooks is less of a target hog than Edelman/Welker.
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Good post. However, I think it is worth pointing out the pass attempts for the Pats in those seasons:

  • 2016: 550
  • 2015: 629
  • 2014: 609
  • 2013: 628
  • 2012: 641
  • 2011: 612
Lowest WR2 targets in the season with the fewest passing attempts; highest WR2 targets in the season with the most passing attempts. Not a perfect correlation, but not zero either.

IMO Brady will never again have a season with 600 passing attempts. Brady averaged 36 pass attempts per game in the regular season last year, which scales to 576 in 16 games. He is 40. The Pats have an easy schedule and will likely spend a lot of time on cruise control. They have a plethora of RBs to carry the ball. They just won it all last year by cruising in the regular season once Brady was back. All signs point to fewer passing attempts than most seem to expect.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
There's a lot of passion in this topic. So I'm gonna go ahead and do an unofficial contest. 

Post up Hogan projections for the 2017 regular season. Targets, Caches, yards & ReTDs; rushes, RuYd & RuTd

closest to all metrics wins a bottle of award-winning hot sauce. Entry closes 5 mins before kickoff next Thursday night. 

Good luck! 
Click to expand...
76 targets, 52 receptions, 726 receiving yards, 5 receiving TDs, 2 carries, 12 rushing yards, 0 rushing TDs

:moneybag:

 
Well, things have officially gotten out of hand on the Chris Hogan bandwagon.  Watching the Pats final preseason game, and the discussion between the guys in the booth and the guys in the studio and they expect Hogan to DOUBLE his production from last year, citing the chemistry and bromance between Hogan and Brady (and the absence of Edelman). They said 70+ receptions as a floor. I don't even want to try to figure out a) how that would be possible, b) what numbers that would actually translate to, and c) how that would impact everyone else on the offense. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I passed on him for Davonte Parker in the 7th. Hogan went 1 pick after me in the to a team I face in week 1, so it might be cause for regret very soon. But I liked what I've seen of Parker, I like 3rd year WRs, and well - I had him ranked/projected higher. 

My lone investment in the Pats was White in the 10th - needed a RB and the upside of White's receptions in the absence of Edelman also looms large in a PPR league as a RB5. So it's not like I disagree with you, or you even need to explain the concept of "swinging for the fences" to me. I've been playing this game a long time - I get why people would take Hogan in the 7th. 

I just think people are overrating him. I might be wrong. It's happened before many, many times. ;)

Good luck. 
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I would take Parker over Hogan pretty easily as well.  But Parker isn't typically there in the 7th.  And Hogan even with the hype is still typically around even a little longer than that.

Either way, he belongs in the conversation with most of the guys in that round 7-10 range, and I really only jumped into this debate to point out that the argument being used against him was the same as the one that was used against the guy he's replacing.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Well, things have officially gotten out of hand on the Chris Hogan bandwagon.  Watching the Pats final preseason game, and the discussion between the guys in the booth and the guys in the studio and they expect Hogan to DOUBLE his production from last year, citing the chemistry and bromance between Hogan and Brady (and the absence of Edelman). They said 70+ receptions as a floor. I don't even want to try to figure out a) how that would be possible, b) what numbers that would actually translate to, and c) how that would impact everyone else on the offense. 
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Well if you go by his production with Brady last season, you're looking at 117tgts/70rec/1288yds/8TDs, which translates to 246.8pts in PPR. That would put him in the top 10 WRs this season. I think while we all agree Hogan will increase his numbers from last season, those there seem like a best case scenario more than a what is likely to happen.

 
This is one of the oddities of fantasy football. I understand a bump in targets but I don't think the offense changes. Nobody was really all that crazy about Hogan before... maybe they should have been, not really here to debate that. If Edelman and Hogan were not white though it would be easy to look at the two and see one is 5'10 190 slot receiver and the other is a 6'2 220 possession receiver. Call it white guy in a skill position bias but it's bizarre to me. I doubt very much that Hogan does something more extrodinary then he was already destined for before Edelman's injury.

 
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