Chris Johnson injury concerns (1 Viewer)

[Thanatos]

So, after a review of some of last weekends games I noticed that Chris Johnson ran the ball 32 times which is a pretty obscene amount of carries for any single running back in a single game. I had to go back and do a review to take a look at his number of touches thus far this year.

Week 1 vs. Oakland - 27 carries, 4 catches

Week 2 vs. Pittsburgh - 16 carries, 5 catches

Week 3 @ New York Giants - 32 carries

I'm aware that it's a pretty small sample size, but if you extrapolate those numbers over the course of an entire season it shakes out to 400 carries running the ball. If you were to extrapolate all of his touches by including his receptions it jumps up to 448 touches through a 16 game season. Am I the only one who sees the magnitude of this workload and thinks that it might put him at a higher risk of injury due to both a greater opportunity from being involved in so many plays as well as the additional wear and tear from running the ball so much?

If you add in his numbers from the last two seasons where he ran the ball 358 times in '09 and 251 times in '08 I'm seeing a heck of a lot of mileage on one running back over a short period of time. I could be totally wrong here and completely off base. Chris Johnson could be made from titanium, eat nails for breakfast, and piss lightning. On the other hand though I get the feeling that people who purchased and have been holding a Javon Ringer lottery ticket might be well rewarded this year.

I'd be interested to see what kind of numbers you turn up if you were to pull all running backs with that kind of workload over a 3 year span.

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm more concerned with Run DMC. He's had 73 carries already. And he's not used to that type of load. He's never even had 120 in a season before.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

They are, but they don't have much of a choice. Their WRs are awful. Young still has issues passing. Ringer is OK, but a huge dropoff from Johnson. The Titans are running Johnson into the ground. RBs have a short NFL career, and lightening his load a little would probably lengthen his career.

 

[Pickle Rody]

Fisher mentioned yesterday (I think) that they will try to lighten the load on CJ by using Ringer a little bit more, early in games. What that really translates to is anyone's guess. Does it mean CJ will generally have less than 30 carries a game? I think it will depend on opponent, situation, flow of the game, etc. I have no problem seeing CJ go off for 300+ carries this year, but if they can spell him a bit with Ringer, who seems to be doing just fine when he is called upon, I have no problem with that either.ETA: From CBSSportsline News:

News: Titans coach Jeff Fisher is considering lightening the load for RB Chris Johnson, who had 32 carries on Sunday: “I have given some thought to getting (backup RB) Javon (Ringer) some more carries early in the ballgame because he’s been very effective for us, but that would be the only consideration.” Johnson currently leads the league in rush attempts with 75.

 

[ponchsox]

I think they should reduce CJ's carries by 5 or so a game. He doesn't look as explosive as last year and the mileage is catching up. Jammal Charles is underutilized, but keeping him fresh will go a long way to preserving his career and fantasy value.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Now is the time to "sell high" in Dynasty leagues. The "peak value" of an RB with CJ's skill set is ~ 2 years at around ages 23-25.

He'll still be a productive RB for a few seasons, but I would expect an earlier sunset with him than the age 30 rule of thumb generally applied to RBs.

 

[3nOut]

I'm curious as to what RBs actuaslly want. If given the choice, would someone like CJ prefer to have his touches limited and extend his career a few years or would they want to be "run into the ground" with a chance for the record books, HoF induction, and to be one of the best ever.

 

[Sputnikv8]

Now is the time to "sell high" in Dynasty leagues. The "peak value" of an RB with CJ's skill set is ~ 2 years at around ages 23-25. He'll still be a productive RB for a few seasons, but I would expect an earlier sunset with him than the age 30 rule of thumb generally applied to RBs.

Sell high now? Really? I don't see how you ever get the value out of RB's if this is the right time to sell. Gotta ride the horses sometime to win. Right?

 

[dmac37]

I think Ringer is the best "waiting for an injury stash" to own of all the RB's.

CJ racking up too many carries between last year and this season

Ringer has looked very good when given a chance

Titans are built to run and Ringer would put up numbers

 

[shnikies]

It's not how many carries but how many hits. I remember hearing Scott Van Pelt quoting a scout on his radio show about how defenders almost never get a solid hit on him due to how shifty he is. If he avoids the big hits then there's really nothing piling up. How many times have you seen him get popped?

 

[Pickle Rody]

It's not how many carries but how many hits. I remember hearing Scott Van Pelt quoting a scout on his radio show about how defenders almost never get a solid hit on him due to how shifty he is. If he avoids the big hits then there's really nothing piling up. How many times have you seen him get popped?

About 4-5 times in the Pitt game....not much else this year.

 

[howardroark]

seems so

 

[HurryUpSundays]

If that 85 yard TD wasn't called back against the Steelers, this wouldn't even be a conversation...

He is still the most dangerous offensive player in the league.

Sell now. Cry later.

 

[Pickle Rody]

If that 85 yard TD wasn't called back against the Steelers, this wouldn't even be a conversation...

He is still the most dangerous offensive player in the league.

Sell now. Cry later.

Jeez, I wish the guys that owned CJ would sell him to me. I'd pay just about anything. In the leagues I own him, I wouldn't trade him for anything right now. Way too much value to let go. I understand why someone wouldn't trade him.

 

[THE SNOWMAN]

Run em into the ground, if they break, draft more. .... at least that's what the fantasy player in me says

 

[flufhed]

Ringer has looked very good, and no doubt the coaching staff has noticed CJ doesn't have quite as much explosion with all the carries.

I don't think Ringer will steal tons of carries, but easily up to 10 carries per game could and should go to Ringer, as well as perhaps some goalline work.

I think both in the real world and fatasy this will amount to a good thing for CJ.

 

[Wrigley]

I think Ringer is the best "waiting for an injury stash" to own of all the RB's.CJ racking up too many carries between last year and this seasonRinger has looked very good when given a chanceTitans are built to run and Ringer would put up numbers

Own him in all leagues..........and I've only got CJ in one of them

 

[FUBAR]

Now is the time to "sell high" in Dynasty leagues. The "peak value" of an RB with CJ's skill set is ~ 2 years at around ages 23-25. He'll still be a productive RB for a few seasons, but I would expect an earlier sunset with him than the age 30 rule of thumb generally applied to RBs.

Sell high now? Really? I don't see how you ever get the value out of RB's if this is the right time to sell. Gotta ride the horses sometime to win. Right?

If he's the only player you own of any value, trading him could make sense. But you'd need to improve big time at every other position to even consider it. Or gain like 4+ 1st round picks and good prospects. The kind of deal that if you peg a couple guys right, you're set.

 

[SSOG]

Now is the time to "sell high" in Dynasty leagues. The "peak value" of an RB with CJ's skill set is ~ 2 years at around ages 23-25. He'll still be a productive RB for a few seasons, but I would expect an earlier sunset with him than the age 30 rule of thumb generally applied to RBs.

What are you basing this on?

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

Now is the time to "sell high" in Dynasty leagues. The "peak value" of an RB with CJ's skill set is ~ 2 years at around ages 23-25. He'll still be a productive RB for a few seasons, but I would expect an earlier sunset with him than the age 30 rule of thumb generally applied to RBs.

NoThe right time to sell a top RB is actually around age 26. You could easily get multiple 1st rd rookie draft picks and a nice WR to add.

 

[CalBear]

Now is the time to "sell high" in Dynasty leagues. The "peak value" of an RB with CJ's skill set is ~ 2 years at around ages 23-25. He'll still be a productive RB for a few seasons, but I would expect an earlier sunset with him than the age 30 rule of thumb generally applied to RBs.

NoThe right time to sell a top RB is actually around age 26. You could easily get multiple 1st rd rookie draft picks and a nice WR to add.

That's not worth more than the 2323 combined yards and 31 TDs Tomlinson put up at age 27. Plus his follow-up season of 1949 combined yards and 18 TDs. Faulk owners who sold at age 26 would have missed out on two 2000-yard combined seasons with 20+ TDs.Rookie draft picks are nice, but they very rarely make your season like those four examples did.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

Now is the time to "sell high" in Dynasty leagues. The "peak value" of an RB with CJ's skill set is ~ 2 years at around ages 23-25.

He'll still be a productive RB for a few seasons, but I would expect an earlier sunset with him than the age 30 rule of thumb generally applied to RBs.

NoThe right time to sell a top RB is actually around age 26. You could easily get multiple 1st rd rookie draft picks and a nice WR to add.

That's not worth more than the 2323 combined yards and 31 TDs Tomlinson put up at age 27. Plus his follow-up season of 1949 combined yards and 18 TDs. Faulk owners who sold at age 26 would have missed out on two 2000-yard combined seasons with 20+ TDs.

Rookie draft picks are nice, but they very rarely make your season like those four examples did.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/0...feofastudrb.pdfWhat about the other top RB's? Most of the RB's considered studs were out of the top 10 by year 6.

Basically if you think CJ is a LT/Dorsett type, wait of course and not sell at all imo. But if you think he's Campbell, Portis, Edge, Marcus Allen, sell early.

 

[CalBear]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/0...feofastudrb.pdf

What about the other top RB's? Most of the RB's considered studs were out of the top 10 by year 6.

So? Most of the rookie draft picks never amounted to anything. Most players you'd get in trade for a bonafide 26-year-old stud will be outperformed by the stud. Population studies are meaningless when applied to specific individuals; it was obvious that Tomlinson and Faulk were special talents in great situations, so the fact that Joe Morris faded out really isn't relevant.

 

[RBM]

Johnson looked very slow and plodding yesterday. Some concern is starting to creep in for me.

 

[VaTerp]

Johnson looked very slow and plodding yesterday. Some concern is starting to creep in for me.

Johnson has NEVER looked slow and plodding to me, including yesterday. What he looks like though, is a RB who is getting bottled up before the hole forms AND a RB who is not seeing the holes nearly was well as he has his first 2 years in the league. He is running somewhat tenatively and with the exception of 2 big runs, just has not gotten it going at all this year.Adding to my concern is that for whatever reason, the Titans cannont get him going in the passing game AT ALL. His rushing averaged has dropped below 4 but his receiving average in an embarrasingly low 3.2 yard per catch. That's insane for a player with CJ's play making ability.My gut said to take Peterson 1st overall but I just couldnt pass on CJ2k, a guy I had been high on since June of 08' and who I touted to all of me league mates when I drafted him that summer. But right now, he just doesn't look right. I really don't think it's the volume of carries at this point in his career but I'm very concerned about his overall production.

 

[I Love Your Fantasy Team]

Chris Johnson fpts after 4 games in 09: 25.2 avg

Chris Johnson fpts after 4 games in 10: 23.5 avg

I wouldn't panic yet. He had a 3 stinkers to kick off '09 as well, but as VaTerp said, guy has nowhere to run.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

What i noticed about CJ2K so far this year is that he seems very slow to hit the LOS and will take whatever the defence will give him instead of trying to be creative.

Maybe this is what worked for him last year and the offensive line has taken a step back?

 

[the_taint]

Now is the time to "sell high" in Dynasty leagues. The "peak value" of an RB with CJ's skill set is ~ 2 years at around ages 23-25.

He'll still be a productive RB for a few seasons, but I would expect an earlier sunset with him than the age 30 rule of thumb generally applied to RBs.

NoThe right time to sell a top RB is actually around age 26. You could easily get multiple 1st rd rookie draft picks and a nice WR to add.

That's not worth more than the 2323 combined yards and 31 TDs Tomlinson put up at age 27. Plus his follow-up season of 1949 combined yards and 18 TDs. Faulk owners who sold at age 26 would have missed out on two 2000-yard combined seasons with 20+ TDs.

Rookie draft picks are nice, but they very rarely make your season like those four examples did.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2009/0...feofastudrb.pdf

What about the other top RB's? Most of the RB's considered studs were out of the top 10 by year 6.

Basically if you think CJ is a LT/Dorsett type, wait of course and not sell at all imo. But if you think he's Campbell, Portis, Edge, Marcus Allen, sell early.

The right time to sell him is the year you actually have proof that he starts breaking down in dynasty. Don't try and anticipate it though and miss out on some of his prime years. There will always be someone in your league that is willing to trade for him on the off chance that he is not done, and will bounce back. See LT. After his dominant run, there were still owners lining up in most leagues to take a shot at him despite a multitude of statistics telling them not to. Its easier to tell with some running backs than others (S.Alexander), but trying to guess when they will begin to break down is a horrible way to go about it IMO.

 

[Wilbur Wood]

Wasn't in this thread for a few days, but did see good chunks of the Den/Tenn game and will watch all of it on Short Cuts tomorrow.

My anecdotal premise is that otherworldly speed/quickness guys "lose it" much faster than lunch pail RB's (Emmit Smith, Curtis Martin, OJ Anderson, Fred Taylor). Gail Sayers, Dante Hall, Billy White Shoes Johnson, Felix Jones, Rick Upchurch, -- all were either elite speed and/or unbelievable ability to cut and change directions. Once this breed of athlete loses that little bit of extra that bumps them from Super Elite down to Elite in terms of speed/quickness many of them become fairly ordinary quickly. Tomlinson and Faulk were much more all-around conventional RB models than guys that lit up the highlight reel with Bugs Bunny like moves.

CJ doesn't look quite as good in this year's small sample. 2009 was the high water mark and his FF "value" is still trading at that level.

 

[CalBear]

Wasn't in this thread for a few days, but did see good chunks of the Den/Tenn game and will watch all of it on Short Cuts tomorrow.My anecdotal premise is that otherworldly speed/quickness guys "lose it" much faster than lunch pail RB's (Emmit Smith, Curtis Martin, OJ Anderson, Fred Taylor). Gail Sayers, Dante Hall, Billy White Shoes Johnson, Felix Jones, Rick Upchurch, -- all were either elite speed and/or unbelievable ability to cut and change directions. Once this breed of athlete loses that little bit of extra that bumps them from Super Elite down to Elite in terms of speed/quickness many of them become fairly ordinary quickly. Tomlinson and Faulk were much more all-around conventional RB models than guys that lit up the highlight reel with Bugs Bunny like moves. CJ doesn't look quite as good in this year's small sample. 2009 was the high water mark and his FF "value" is still trading at that level.

Well, except for that Barry Sanders guy. And Faulk is a better comparable for C.Johnson than most other backs you could name.My anecdotal premise is that all backs have good and bad years, including elite backs, and that the idea that Chris Johnson has "lost it" at age 25 is ridiculous. Emmitt: 3.7 ypc at age 27, and career-low (to that point) 1308 total yards, 4 TDs at age 28. Went on to have two more 1500+ yard, 13+ TD seasons.C.Martin: 3.5 ypc at age 25. Faulk: 3.0 ypc at age 23 (third year in the league). Tomlinson: 3.9 ypc at age 25.Payton: 3.6 ypc at age 27.In fact, the one guy who didn't have a significantly down year early in his career was Barry Sanders--who looks more like Chris Johnson than the guys above do.This may or may not turn out to be a down year for Johnson, but in any case you'd be foolish to assume he has somehow lost the talents that made him special last year. (And still have him among the top fantasy RBs this year).

 

[WiDDoW_MaKeR]

Wow... serious overreaction. He had a bad game this week... and obviously a bad one against the Steelers like everyone else. He also had two huge days.

 

[Clifford]

Sounds like it is time to target him.

 

[encaitar]

CJ was never a guy who was gonna average 5 yards a carry on every carry. Last year his average was so high because he broke a ridiculous amount of long runs. So far this year, he's had one big run, but I'd bet more are coming. He'll never manufacture yards like Peterson can by running guys over. He takes the holes that are there and his speed gives him the opportunity to break some long runs. If there is no hole, he's going down. This is who he is. He just hasn't seen the Monster truck sized holes this years like he did last year. Doesn't mean he's done, just means his line isn't giving him the same opportunity that it did last year.

 

[Da Guru]

What is the rule of thumb on RB touches for a season? Johnson had too many touches last year and it is showing.

 

[redBourne]

I like to give my friend schtick about owning CJ and him going down this season. To that affect, Ringer wasn't drafted. I waited until after this week and decided I'd better roster him now. It's purely gut speculation for me at this point. I know there is the history of running backs who get so many carries or touches (400+ touches? or was it 400+ carries?) and how they do the very next year, but I sincerely feel like CJ is a singular case. He is very shifty and able to avoid the big hits. Smart runner is what that equates too as well. How can we calculate his chances anyway?

However, something in my gut says that he's going to have, at the least, a 2 game ankle sprain or something. I hope he doesn't go down for anything, has a great season, and gets paid next year. But my fantasy league doesn't award $ for feel good stories.

In another league I used this gut feeling to draft ADP #1. Again, just gut feelings but I feel much safer atm.

 

[ericttspikes]

CJ was never a guy who was gonna average 5 yards a carry on every carry. Last year his average was so high because he broke a ridiculous amount of long runs. So far this year, he's had one big run, but I'd bet more are coming. He'll never manufacture yards like Peterson can by running guys over. He takes the holes that are there and his speed gives him the opportunity to break some long runs. If there is no hole, he's going down. This is who he is. He just hasn't seen the Monster truck sized holes this years like he did last year. Doesn't mean he's done, just means his line isn't giving him the same opportunity that it did last year.

Great post. I saw a story, I think on the NFL Network, where AP and his coach Eric Bieniemy were breaking down Johnson's highlight video's and Bieniemy was pointing out how patient Johnson is and telling Adrian to watch how he runs. Peterson runs full speed at the line hoping to knock through holes, Johnson waits for holes to appear and blasts through them. So far they aren't there for the Titans. I suspect the Titans will figure it out and fix it as the season goes on. Vince Young also has an effect on Johnson and maybe Vince needs to use his legs more to help open up some lanes for CJ. So far Vince's arm isn't scaring anyone. Johnson is fine. As many posted before this season, he probably won't break last years points, but he was so far ahead of everyone last year that even a down year should put him toward the top.

 

[Rusty Syringes]

I think Ringer is the best "waiting for an injury stash" to own of all the RB's.CJ racking up too many carries between last year and this seasonRinger has looked very good when given a chanceTitans are built to run and Ringer would put up numbers

I picked up Ringer a few weeks ago with this in mind. I'm hoping to teach the CJ owner a little something about handcuffing your No. 1 pick.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Johnson had too many touches last year and it is showing.

This has to be sarcasm. Right?

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

Johnson had too many touches last year and it is showing.

This has to be sarcasm. Right?

Curse of 370 google itedit: nm, he had 408

http://sportsgrumblings.com/football/artic...-370/Page1.html

 

[Da Guru]

Johnson had too many touches last year and it is showing.

This has to be sarcasm. Right?

Curse of 370 google itedit: nm, he had 408

http://sportsgrumblings.com/football/artic...-370/Page1.html

Production declines after a big workload year. Stats don`t lie.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Curse of 370 google it

edit: nm, he had 408

http://sportsgrumblings.com/football/artic...-370/Page1.html

It's not that I haven't heard of it before. I just don't care about anything that needs the term "curse" attached to it in order for people to consider it valid.

 

[4 - Digit Shark]

Chris Johnson fpts after 4 games in 09: 25.2 avg

Chris Johnson fpts after 4 games in 10: 23.5 avg

I wouldn't panic yet. He had a 3 stinkers to kick off '09 as well, but as VaTerp said, guy has nowhere to run.

Yes but...1st 4 games 2009:

- Rush = 69/434/2 (6.29 ypc)

- Rec = 14/117/1 (8.36 ypr)

1st 4 games 2010:

- Rush = 94/354/4 (3.77 ypc)

- Rec = 12/38/0 (3.17 ypr)

CJ is clearly doing less, with more touches (23), so far this year. Not saying why this is, or that it will continue, but he simply is not performing close to what he did last year. He has 23 more touches this year through 4 games, yet has produced 159 less yards. I'd be concerned, a little at least.

Meanwhile J. Ringer is averaging 7.6 ypc on the same team. Although with a much smaller sample size of 15 carries.

 

[steelwind]

Chris Johnson fpts after 4 games in 09: 25.2 avg

Chris Johnson fpts after 4 games in 10: 23.5 avg

I wouldn't panic yet. He had a 3 stinkers to kick off '09 as well, but as VaTerp said, guy has nowhere to run.

Yes but...1st 4 games 2009:

- Rush = 69/434/2 (6.29 ypc)

- Rec = 14/117/1 (8.36 ypr)

1st 4 games 2010:

- Rush = 94/354/4 (3.77 ypc)

- Rec = 12/38/0 (3.17 ypr)

CJ is clearly doing less, with more touches (23), so far this year. Not saying why this is, or that it will continue, but he simply is not performing close to what he did last year. He has 23 more touches this year through 4 games, yet has produced 159 less yards. I'd be concerned, a little at least.

Meanwhile J. Ringer is averaging 7.6 ypc on the same team. Although with a much smaller sample size of 15 carries.

If you rush for 2000 yards the year before. Teams will plan their defensive scheme to stop you. I wouldn't worry about it. CJ may not crack 2000 yards this year but he will still be a top 2 running back flip flopping between him and AP.

 

[One]

What i noticed about CJ2K so far this year is that he seems very slow to hit the LOS and will take whatever the defence will give him instead of trying to be creative.

Maybe this is what worked for him last year and the offensive line has taken a step back?

+1. He's seeing the same defensive fronts, running the same offense. Johnson seems much less patient this season and a huge part of it is because the O-Line isn't blocking well. He's had a lot of plays already where he's been blown up in the backfield before getting a chance to do anything.

I think things will pick up as the blocking problem seems like something that can be corrected.

 

[One]

Chris Johnson fpts after 4 games in 09: 25.2 avg

Chris Johnson fpts after 4 games in 10: 23.5 avg

I wouldn't panic yet. He had a 3 stinkers to kick off '09 as well, but as VaTerp said, guy has nowhere to run.

Yes but...1st 4 games 2009:

- Rush = 69/434/2 (6.29 ypc)

- Rec = 14/117/1 (8.36 ypr)

1st 4 games 2010:

- Rush = 94/354/4 (3.77 ypc)

- Rec = 12/38/0 (3.17 ypr)

CJ is clearly doing less, with more touches (23), so far this year. Not saying why this is, or that it will continue, but he simply is not performing close to what he did last year. He has 23 more touches this year through 4 games, yet has produced 159 less yards. I'd be concerned, a little at least.

Meanwhile J. Ringer is averaging 7.6 ypc on the same team. Although with a much smaller sample size of 15 carries.

just for the hell of it...Weeky Rushing Averages:

'09:

WK1 - 3.8 (Okay)

WK2 - 12.3 (Bonkers)

WK3 - 4.4 (Good)

WK4 - 5.2 (Good)

'10:

WK1 - 5.3 (Good)

WK2 - 2.1 (Bad) (...6.9 had his 84 yarder not been called back)

WK3 - 3.9 (Okay)

WK4 - 2.8 (Bad)

 

[skillz]

I haven't watched every Titans game this year. Only the Oakland and NY Giants games. It seems like they are using him differently. Essentially just giving the ball to him and letting him run behind the line, or pitching him the ball. When Vince Young became the starter in the second half of 2009 the Titans used misdirection plays, read options, and option plays so that the defense had to account for either Young or Johnson as the rushing threat. Those plays allowed Johnson to gash the defense for huge chunks of yards because he would get the ball in more space, make a move, and use his speed to get large gains. It also allowed him to get a lot of touches but avoid getting hit a ton. For some reason, the Titans don't seem to be using him the same way this year and it shows. If they plan on just handing him the ball and running him behind the line I am not expecting anything remotely close to the games he put up last year. Maybe I am oversimplifying things but that is what I have noticed as a major difference between last year and this year.

 

[Bri]

there's a few threads on this topic

Ringer is averaging less than a carry per quarter

 

[WiDDoW_MaKeR]

I wonder what people would be saying right now if Johnson's 85 yard TD run against the Steelers wasn't called back. We all know that it would have been a touchdown without the "hold". That would have given him over 100 yards vs the Steelers... and 3 huge games on the year.

 

[mulehead]

I think the Titan's are missing Kevin Mawae more than they would like to admit. Their offensive line as a unit are not run blocking very effectively this year. Eugene Amano is still learning the center position, and Jake Harris has regressed. If the line can't get it together, there won't be any room to run.

 

[CaptainHook]

yea...rate stats mean so much less with this type of player. his season avg could easily go up by a full 2ypc next week. though id imagine he belongs more at the 5.0 level than the 5.5+ level so his numbers should come down a little this season regardless.