CIN RBs Hill/Bernard - First/Second Half Season Splits (2014 & 2015) (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

PFR Game Logs 2014 & 2015

Bernard

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BernGi00/gamelog/2014/

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BernGi00/gamelog/2015/

2013-2014 highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qFUAo2eaWE

2015 highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uhfu14Oij8

Hill

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillJe01/gamelog/2014/

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HillJe01/gamelog/2015/

2014 highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M40Oysdsu_M

2015 "highlights"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmoa3rvMI44

2014 - first half

Bernard (7 games, 109-446-5 rushing, 22-179-0 receiving)

Hill (8 games, 74-349-5 rushing, 14-140-0 receiving)

2014 - second half

Bernard (6 games, 59-237-0 rushing, 21-170-0 receiving)

Hill (8 games, 148-775-4 rushing, 13-75-0 receiving)

2015 - first half

Bernard (8 games, 91-511-2 rushing, 21-155-0 receiving) 

Hill (8 games, 104-342-5 rushing, 5-35-1 receiving)  

2015 - second half

Bernard (8 games, 63-219-0 rushing, 28-317-0 receiving) 

Hill (8 games, 119-452-6 rushing, 10-44-0 receiving)  

COMBINED first/second half splits 2014 & 2015

First Half (2014 & 2015)

Bernard (15 games, 200-954-7 rushing, 43-334-0 receiving) 

Hill (16 games, 178-691-10 rushing, 19-175-1 receiving) 

Second Half (2014 & 2015)

Bernard (14 games, 122-456-0 rushing, 49-487-0 receiving)   

Hill (16 games, 267-1,227-10 rushing, 23-119-0 receiving)

For those playing along at home, in the second relative to first half of the 2014 & 2015 seasons COMBINED:

Bernard's carries DECLINED from 200 to 122, rushing yards from 954 to 456 and rushing TDs from 7 to 0.

Hill's carries INCREASED from 178 to 267, rushing yards from 691 to 1,227 and rushing TDs same at 10.     

Questions

1) Is the disparate first/second half season distribution in the past two seasons (Hill's only two, and their only two together) trend or random?

2) A school of thought dating back a few years was (in addition to Green, Eifert and Bernard) that the presence of TE Gresham and WRs Jones/Sanu would conspire to hold Hill's value down. Now that they are gone, is this a positive for Hill, or does the concern merely get subbed for with the likes of WRs LaFell, Boyd and TE Kroft?

3) Yet another school of thought was that Bernard was so talented it must necessarily severely curb Hill's upside. Based on how the second half of the 2015 season transpired, is this a consensus? What are the respective expectations for Bernard and Hill in 2016 and beyond?

4) A pattern has previously been suggested that Bernard would get the bulk of the carries when CIN was behind, Hill more if the game was close or CIN was leading. Did this hold true in 2015 (and was there a difference in the first and second half of the seasons)?   

5) Is the OC change from Hue Jackson, now the HC in CLE, to former CIN QB coach Ken Zampese expected to drastically alter the OVERALL usage pattern between Bernard and Hill going forward relative to the previous two seasons (setting aside the half season splits observation for a moment), or to remain largely the same?

6) Bernard's production seems to have been approximately the same in 2014 and 2015 (missed three games mid-season in 2014 due to injury, but also had a bigger role in the first half of that same reason, so perhaps those two facts are a wash?). Hill's was very different. That could make Bernard's projection relatively uncomplicated. With Hill, on the other hand, is he being projected based more on 2014, 2015 or somewhere in between (one of the latter two options would be my guess)? 

7) IMO, Bernard looked as good as he ever has in the first half of 2015 (like his hair was on fire - was he running with greater urgency and intensity after losing his starting job in 2014, and if so, was that tempo unsustainable, or is the second half decline attributed to other factors, and if so, what?). Much as Hill did in the second half of 2014 - neither have really strung together a great SEASON, but more half seasons. Bernard's injury might explain his skid at the end of 2014, I'm not aware of any injuries in 2015? Hill not starting the first half of his rookie 2014 season explains his slow start in 2014, don't see a corresponding explanation for 2015 (though after two fumbles in game 2 against SD, his USAGE dipped for about a month, but his Y/C average still fell off a cliff - remaining that way even after his carries saw a slight uptick in the second half). Hill's Y/C average was significantly higher in his rookie 2014 season, some chalk this up to several "lucky" long runs. To me, Hill ran more sluggishly in general in 2015, not less "lucky".  It has been suggested CIN ran more run plays out of power I formations (as opposed to out of shot gun) the previous year, on a percentage basis, which may be more aligned with Hill's style, but I haven't vetted the tendency data.

In the FIRST half of 2015, Bernard had under a 4.0 Y/C average only once (game 3 BAL), otherwise 4.77 (game 4 KC), 5.33 (game 5 SEA), 5.54 (game 8 CLE), 6.15 (game 2 SD), 6.25 (game 6 BUF), 7.88 (game 1 OAK) and 12.0 (game 7 PIT - latter obviously an outlier based on 1 carry), and under 13 carries just three times (game 1 OAK, game 6 BUF and game 7 PIT). 

In the SECOND half of 2015, Bernard had under a 4.0 Y/C average four times, including 1.60 (game 11 STL), 1.75 (game 15 DEN), 2.36 (game 14 SF) and 3.0 (game 10 ARI), and under 13 carries seven times (all but game 14 SF).

I could show Hill having significantly better splits in the second half of his 2014 season, but this would probably be a pointless exercise, as noted above, some chalk this up to a few "lucky" long runs. From that perspective, drilling down and breaking the numbers down further will still leave them remaining unconvinced, and for those who don't attribute his rookie success to luck, don't need to be furnished the additional data on that particular score.      

* Where do Bernard and Hill rank in dynasty? In four dynasty leagues I track (two PPR, two half PPR):

Bernard

1) '14 - #17, '15 - #19

2) '14 - #17, '15 - #18

3) '14 - #17, '15 - #20

4) '14 - #19, '15 - #19

Hill

1) '14 - #9, '15 - #17

2) '14 - #9, '15 - #17 

3) '14 - #10, '15 - #17

4) '14 - #10, '15 - #18  

I'm not in any non-PPR leagues (per above). Hill was clearly more valuable in 2014. Even in 2015, he was slightly more valuable (albeit very close), it didn't make a difference whether in PPR or half PPR. 

* I may not be able to get to everybody, TIA for any input that contributes to generating discussion within the thread.    

 

[Biabreakable]

Great questions Bob. Too many to answer all at once. 

It might be helpful to look at Bernards first season with the law firm as the closer and see if the pattern of Hill being used more later in the season holds true with BJGE also?

I have a theory based off of Hue Jackson's comments about the weather, an intention to use Hill more late in the season. Jackson was not the OC when Bernard was a rookie. It might help to see if Marvin Lewis shares this view or if it was unique to Hue?

In the playoffs 2014 Bernard was used more than Hill with everything on the line.

Many have said Hill took Benards job. As far as I can tell and for as long as we have been talking about this I have seen this as a RBBC with two separate but distinct roles in the offense. I think that pattern has held pretty true all along aside from a spell of games when Bernard was injured and games following that when Hill got the majority of the opportunities. This trend of Hill winning the job did not hold in the playoffs nor did it carry over to the beginning of the next season.

Andy Dalton was hurt the last few games of the 2015 season and the passing game as well as Bernard did not perform as well. I think Hill was used a bit more in part because the Bengals back up QB was not very good.

I would expect more of the same in 2016. Either RB could be very good if the other one is hurt or out of the picture for some reason. Both will be good at times during the 2016 but it will not be easy to predict when those games will be.

I am definitely open to exploring this again though. Both RB are very good at specific things that are different skills than what the other RB has.

Bernard has about 40 more combined yards per season than Hill has. Hill has an obvious advantage in terms of TD.

Hill may be worth more than Bernard in standard leagues while Bernard has more of an advantage in PPR leagues. 

 

[Bob Magaw]

RB consensus: Huge offseason for Bengals' Jeremy Hill

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/nfl/bengals/2016/02/12/rb-consensus-huge-offseason-bengals-jeremy-hill/80297130/

Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk knows Jeremy Hill. Faulk is from New Orleans, Hill’s hometown. They’ve met. They’ve talked. They’ve discussed life as an NFL running back.

Following the low moment of Hill’s career, a fumble which set in motion the postseason meltdown at Paul Brown Stadium against Pittsburgh, Faulk immediately reached out to the Bengals running back.

“I sent him a message right after that,” Faulk said. “I said, ‘Listen, that fumble can define you or it can motivate you. You get to decide.’”

The process of moving forward won’t officially begin until April when players return for offseason workouts. In the meantime, the Bengals must go forward plotting the process to return Hill to the track of his rookie season, where he led the NFL in rushing the final nine weeks of the season.

Hill’s yards per carry dropped from 5.1 in his rookie year to 3.6 his second season. Inside the organization, the staff battled Hill’s desire to break too many carries for home runs. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson often spoke of a need to revert to the straightforward power style that defined his rookie year and - at one point late in the season - held a serious, face-to-face meeting about his running.

The final seven games of the season (including the playoffs), Hill rushed 111 times for 440 yards at 4.0 yards per carry. Those won’t be the numbers which will dictate his offseason. The next seven months will be all about moving on from the one play that so many across social media and even his own mind will have a hard time forgetting.

How to do that varies depending on who you’re asking. Few know better than former Giants running back Tiki Barber. He fumbled 36 times during a four-year period from 2000-03, before shaking the problem to enjoy his best seasons as a pro, topping 2,000 yards from scrimmage each of the next three years with only nine fumbles.

“Lot of people think it’s emotional or getting rid of the self-fulfilling prophecy of dropping the football but it’s actually purely mechanical,” Barber said. “Anyone can technically fix it. We are taught when we are young to hold the ball perpendicular to the ground. You actually need to hold it vertical to the ground. So that when it gets pulled away from you you can wrap yourself around the football as opposed to wrapping your arms around which actually still exposes it by going out the bottom.”

Jackson benched Hill in Week 2 against San Diego after committing two fumbles. One was a dropped pitch and the other a play where Hill appeared to be down on the run. Still, the concerns were noted. He fumbled once more against San Francisco and finally in the playoff game attempting to run out the game against Pittsburgh.

The strip by Ryan Shazier came just as Hill fell to the ground pushing for an extra yard on the first-down run.

“It’s awareness going to the ground which is the hardest things for running backs to think about in a moment after contact because you think that extra yard,” Barber said. “You reach, you get loose, because you are learning how to fall. Learning how to fall while protecting the ball is the greatest way to prevent that from happening.”

Hill fumbled five times his rookie season, and those plays drew the ire of Marvin Lewis on multiple occasions.

LaDainian Tomlinson will soon reach the Hall of Fame following an illustrious 11-year career. He fumbled eight times his rookie year, but only once had a season with more than three after that.

“I really don’t worry about guys that have fumbles here and there because I think fumbling or taking care of the football is something that you constantly work on,” Tomlinson said. “You learn from your experiences. You have to continue to be honest with yourself on what you need to work on. That’s what I hope Jeremy Hill does this offseason. Take a look at this past season, what he needs to work on and then go to work on it so he can perfect his craft because, let’s be honest, the guy has tons of potential.”

Running mate Giovani Bernard endured a similar fate as Hill, though not under the same microscope. Bernard talked often following his rookie season about frustration knowing he fumbled in the red zone just before halftime of the 27-10 playoff loss against San Diego. He’s only fumbled once in the two years since, not counting when he was knocked unconscious by the helmet of Shazier in this year’s playoff defeat.

Bernard and Hill have grown into fast friends, and relying on each other to push forward through any mental issues will be part of the occasion as well in the eyes of Hall of Famer Anthony Munoz.

“I think it takes support,” Munoz said. “If you truly have leaders on the team guys will rally around him. Here’s an example. We offer a character camp and one of the guys we talked to was Marv Levy about accountability. He says Scott Norwood misses wide right, I’m in my office, how am I going to go console this kid? I look up, Andre Reed walks up, hey Scott, if I would have caught that pass on third down … Darryl Talley, hey, if I would’ve … Four guys come up. The essence of accountability is team. They need guys to step up and say, Jeremy, come on, it wasn’t all you. They need to rally around him. That’s the key.”

 

[OnTheReg]

Awesome post, Bob. I'm buying Hill this off-season in Dynasty. I don't expect a bonafide RB1 but I think a solid RB2, low RB1 is certainly in the cards.

 

[bostonfred]

Everybody started him week 1. He was a consensus first or second round pick.  19 rushes, 63 yards,  2 tds.  This guy was a steal at any price! 

So obviously you started him week 2. 10 rushes,  39 yards,  1 catch,  2 yards,  and for leagues that penalize fumbles,  he had two.  So what though.  He had a down game.  Everyone has down games. 

Week 3 12 rushes,  20 yards,  no receptions,  no touchdowns.  Uh oh.  Maybe I should sit him for a little bit and see what happens. He's only my rb2 after all,  and a really good rb2 at that.  

Week 4 9 rushes,  40 yards.   Glad I benched him.  Wait,  three touchdowns.  I didn't bench him.  I'm a genius!   This guy was a steal at any price. My rb1!  

Week 5 8 rushes,  13 yards,  1 catch,  12 yards.   Ok, this guy has 189 total yards, 2 catches, and 2 fumbles through 5 games.  Even the 5 touchdowns aren't enough to make that good.  It's time to take a seat. 

Week 6 16 rushes for 56 yards. 1 catch for 13 yards.  At least it was a touchdown.  Not a great game,  but not terrible.   

Week 8 coming off the bye, maybe he can do something.  15 rushes,  60 yards. 1 catch,  8 yards.   It can't get worse than this 

Week 9 Actually it can.  15 rushes for 52 yards,  1 catch for 0 yards. 

Week 10 actually it can get much worse.  7 rushes 15 yards.  3 catches 5 yards.  At this point he's buried on your bench. 

Week 11 cross country road trip to one of the toughest defenses in the league.  13 rushes. 45 yards.  2 touchdowns.  On your bench.  

Week 12 vs rams.  16 catches for 86 yards,  1 catch 14 yards. His first 100 total yard game.  Worth 10 points in non ppr, 11 in ppr.  

Week 13 vs browns.  Finally a match up I can play him.  22 rushes for 98 yards and 1 td.  Heating up just in time for the playoffs! 

Week 14 vs steelers.  Home game.  Bad defense.  7 rushes for 16 yards and 2 catches for 8 yards.   I hope your playoffs didn't start this week because they probably ended this week. 

Week 15 OK this is definitely a playoff game.  Another cross country road trip.  Do you start him?  If so,  you were rewarded with less than 40 yards and just 1 catch.  But he got 2 tds.  In non ppr, that was a very good game.   For the ppr guys,  that's not even 17 points.

Week 16 road game,  in Denver,  without Dalton,  in a game Denver needs to win.  16 rushes,  63 yards,  2 catches for -2 yards.  That doesn't sound like much,  but 63 yards is literally his third best rushing performance of the season.  

Week 17 meaningless game against the Ravens. Of course it's his best game of the year.  16 rushes,  96 yards,  2 catches,  19 yards,  and a touchdown, for a total of 115 yards, easily beating his previous high water marks of 100 and 98, and 69 total yards.  Let that sink in.  

He had way more bum games than good ones.   It was usually only worth starting him if he had touchdowns,  which are almost impossible to predict. 

And if you think you can predict which match ups to play him in,  good luck.  Did you start him both games vs the browns?  You got 1 catch,  150 yards and 1 td between the two.   Against the steelers?  4 catches for 92 yards between the two.  The Ravens? 21 yards in his only regular season match against Baltimore.  5 catches,  263 yards and 1 td in 5 division games.   If you wanted his three multi touchdown games,  you had to start him against the Raiders, Chiefs and Cardinals.  Not the games most people circled on his schedule when drafting him. 

15 receptions.  873 yards. 12 total tds. It wasn't a lack of carries - he had 223 compared to 222 the year before.  10 ppg in non ppr.  11 in ppr. 

But maybe that's just a sophomore slump.   He was great as a rookie, right?  Again,  he has 19 total yards week 1.  Then 96 and a td. Then 39 and a td.  Then 69. 35 and a td. 15. 53.  He was actually worse than 2015 - 8 games without a 100 total yards.  13 catches for 326 total yards and 3 tds in 7 games.  7 ppg in non ppr, 9 in ppr.  He's just not that good. 

Except when gio went down.  That changed everything. In the 9 games starting with the gio injury,  he had 14 catches for 1003 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 15 ppgin non ppr and 17 in ppr.  In the 23 games gio was healthy,  he had 28 catches for 1199 total yards and 15 tds, good for just 9 ppg in non ppr and 10ppg in ppr leagues.  

That's what hill is.  A touchdown dependent bye week flyer who is only useful as a backup to gio.  

 

[Bob Magaw]

Awesome post, Bob. I'm buying Hill this off-season in Dynasty. I don't expect a bonafide RB1 but I think a solid RB2, low RB1 is certainly in the cards.

Thanks, OTR.

I already had Hill in two leagues (one with Bernard, too, one without). Even if I was inclined to sell (not), now wouldn't be the time for me coming off a down season - though again, moot point in my case. It will be interesting to see what happens to Bernard, who enters his fourth and contract season (as does Hill in 2017).

AFC North Drafts 2015 & 2016 (Grades by Bucky Brooks)

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000491361/article/afc-north-draft-grades-cleveland-browns-take-wise-approach   

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000660067/article/afc-north-draft-grades-browns-bolster-roster-with-14-newbies

Note that CIN hasn't selected a RB in the past two drafts. No idea if that is a possible clue that they intend to extend Bernard? RB is a highly instinctive position generally able to contribute quickly immediately (as did Bernard and Hill, though they were eased into more reps gradually), so they could always draft one in 2017 - plus there are the free agency and trade routes. 

CIN reportedly in negotiations to extend Bernard. Not a surprise, I would, they have built their game around two backs (though with Dalton's 2015 breakout season and the departure of former OC Hue Jackson, a shift to a more passing-centric scheme wouldn't be a massive shock, either), and Bernard has exemplary intangibles, character, work ethic, coachability, leadership, is a team player and talented. It has been their MO to lock up YOUNG, valued, integral players (albeit letting WRs Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu go in the latest free agency cycle).  

Williams' extension solidifies safety spot Posted May 17, 2016

The Bengals locked up the middle of their defense for the next five years Tuesday when they announced a four-year extension for safety Shawn Williams.

http://www.bengals.com/news/article-1/Williams-extension-solidifies-safety-spot/0e1cee66-4c6c-4d65-8af6-d07d42e5ac13

"With the Bengals now  signing draft picks and over the $166 million salary cap with the Williams deal, they probably signed him out of their roll-over salary cap money of about $6 million. Before the Williams' deal, spotrac.com reported the Bengals were $560,000 under the cap. It’s believed they’re also working on extensions for other contract-year guys, such as running back Giovani Bernard and fullback Ryan Hewitt. Hewitt becomes a free agent after three years because he was undrafted." 

The Bengals had a hard time letting go Nelson, but it was only because they feel like they are locking up a rising player in Williams heading into his prime. Since 2013 they've done it with guys like Iloka, Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap, and left guard Clint Boling, as well as A.J. Green, Andy Dalton, and Vontaze Burfict.

http://www.cincyjungle.com/2016/5/17/11692854/bengals-working-on-extensions-for-2017-free-agents

"Bernard, who has been one of the best dual-threat backs in football, is also set to become a free agent next year for the first time in his pro career. Over his first three years in the NFL, Bernard has rushed for 2,105 yards on 495 carries (4.3 ypc) with 12 touchdowns. He's also caught 148 passes for 1,335 yards and five more scores.

That includes 730 rushing yards on 154 carries (4.7 ypc) and two scores with 49 catches for 472 yards this past season. Despite his 5-foot-9, 205-pound frame, Bernard has been pretty durable, missing just three games out of a possible 51 games (includes the playoffs)."

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2640785-giovani-bernard-contract-latest-news-rumors-on-rbs-negotiations-with-bengals 

"Bernard brings a lot of value to the offense through his work in both the running and passing games. He finished with 1,202 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in 2015. Pro Football Focus graded Bernard the 24th-best (76.6) running back in the league."

 

[Bob Magaw]

A common question that always arises in these discussions is whether or not within the CIN RB stable Hill is "the starter".

For me, the nomenclature "starter" traces to the below time (as a reminder).

Gio Bernard says Jeremy Hill will start for Bengals Dec. 11, 2014

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000442123/article/gio-bernard-says-jeremy-hill-will-start-for-bengals

"In a move toward making one running back the workhorse, the Cincinnati Bengals will start Jeremy Hill on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.

Giovani Bernard told reporters that the rookie would start, per the team's official website. Bernard added he is willing to play any role to help the team win.

After spending the past three weeks splitting carries between his two young running backs, offensive coordinator Hue Jackson said on Wednesday he wanted to make one his workhorse.

"I'm used to having one guy kind of dominate some carries because in order for backs to be really good, they've got to get lathered up to play," Jackson said, per the team's official website.

"You've got to get a feel for the game. We have two capable guys and they're different guys and we'll let it play itself out, but I think we have a pretty good idea which way we're headed. ... Those guys are very capable. I just don't think I did a very good job this past week."

That sentiment, coupled with Hill getting the start, signifies that the rookie should enjoy the majority of the carries.

Since Bernard returned to the lineup three games ago, he and Hill have had a nearly even split (33 and 39 carries, respectively). However, they've averaged just 3.9 yards per carry during that stretch.

Hill's success as a power runner who carried the load successfully while Bernard was out with an injury -- and Jackson's history utilizing big backs like Darren McFadden and Michael Bush -- suggests the rookie will be the man the Bengals lean on as they enter the home stretch of the season.

Bernard will likely play the change-of-pace back and receiver out of the backfield, which is the position his body type and skill set are best suited for in the first place."

In other words, Hill has been "called" the starter because the Bengals have called him the starter, and because he has been the starter since supplanting Bernard in 2014 (some subsequently proven to be baseless and unsupported speculation about their relative status that caused some ruckus and commotion in the wake and immediate aftermath of the two fumble game against SD in week 2 of the 2015 season notwithstanding  ). The fact that Hill decisively outpointed Bernard in his rookie 2014 season (even when they played together in the second half), and still outpointed him even in a down soph slump campaign, albeit not by as wide a margin, EVEN IN PPR LEAGUES despite Bernard having more receptions, reflects their different stations - Hill the starter and volume back, Bernard the complementary COP/receiving back.

Since 2014 (total rushing stats - from the last 6 games of 2014, after Bernard returned AND Hill was named the starter), regular season:

Bernard (22 games, 213-964-2 rushing)

Hill (22 games, 332-1,366-15 rushing)

Pretty unassailable Hill has been the starter for most/all of the time frame SINCE the above article (others can cite the fact that Bernard has more receiving-related production, that just makes the point to me that he is the complementary COP/receiving back in the RBBC, and further, misses the point that Hill was more productive in BOTH seasons DESPITE that - BTW, Bernard had 49 receptions in 2015, using that time frame so there are no alleged 2014 injury impact questions, and Hill had 15 receptions [[for the record, in the last six games of 2014, Bernard had 21 receptions and Hill had 11]], giving Bernard an average 2 reception per game edge last season).     

The descriptive term "starter" has several connotations. It can mean both (in a RB context, as here), the player that BEGINS the game getting the snaps. Also, the player that in the end gets the MOST snaps. Clearly Hill met both definitions/criteria by the end of his rookie 2014 season (as well as most of the 2015 season).

[[EDIT/ADD from a below post - Bottom line, I'd suggest that WHO GOT THE BALL MORE is a more meaningful and relevant definition of RB starter for FANTASY PURPOSES. Hill had 119 more carries in the 22 game sample of the above cited time frame, more than 5 per game (5.41, to be exact). Bernard's average carries 213/22 = 9.68. 5.41/9.68 = a 56% edge in carries for Hill vs. Bernard (as already noted above, Bernard had about 2 receptions per game more than Hill last season). Scoring-wise, Hill had a 15-2 rushing TD edge in the last 22 game time frame since he was named the starter (who is getting the run play SNAPS when the ball is close to the goal line?). Bernard's 2/17 = 12%, Hill's 15/17 = 88%. Bernard did have 2 receiving TDs in the last two games of 2014, Hill had 1 receiving TD in game 6 against BUF in 2015. So even recalculated as total RB rushing/receiving scores, Bernard's 4/20 = 20%, Hill's 16/20 = 80%. DESPITE the bulk of that falling in a soph slump 2015 campaign for Hill during which he may have been in the dog house/semi-benched due to 2 fumbles against SD, for a month from games 2-5 (or a quarter of the season).]]

Some have insisted that Bernard was injured in 2014 and that was the "cause" of Hill's ascendancy and position of predominance in the RBBC (a meme or standard party line). I've countered in a few ways. When running the Y/C average numbers, Bernard's numbers were virtually interchangeable BEFORE and AFTER the injury (Hill's numbers were unambiguously better than both in the second half of his rookie 20014 season). Maybe Bernard played tougher defenses when he was healthy, and easier defenses when he was "hurt" which could explain why the numbers were so similar despite the injury, but that seems far fetched. Hill won the job on merit. Also, this situation isn't like Lou Gehrig and Wally Pipp. How often does an incumbent starter lose his job based on a mere three game absence, if NOT due to merit. Not a lot of names come immediately to mind for me?

Once Bernard returned from his three game absence in 2014 (and again, the numbers were basically the same before and after, so not sure on what basis anybody could say his Y/C efficiency production suffered due to injury?):

Bernard post/pre injury (showing rushing stats only to determine whether or not there is a discernible injury-related impact on stats in this time frame)

POST (6 games, 59-234-0 rushing = 3.97 Y/C average) PRE (7 games, 109-446-5 rushing = 4.09 Y/C average)  

Basically, if Bernard had ONE more carry for a modest 10 yards post-injury, he would have had a virtually IDENTICAL Y/C average. Why, if he was "hurt"? IMO, it is incumbent on the "injury-ites" to come up with an explanation, the onus is on them to account for this in a way that is consistent with the context of the facts and statistical evidence. I've had yet to hear it, and don't see how it is possible given the above. Maybe because usage plummeted, he was "fresher" and this compensated for his injury, but this again sounds like a stretch (as did the better/worse defenses lining up with pre/post-injury absence rushing production)? 

Hill (regular season)

DURING/POST Bernard injury absence (9 games, 172-939-6 = 5.46 Y/C average)

HILL

POST Bernard injury - as noted above, since Bernard had basically the same Y/C average before/after. This incidentally subtracts OUT two of Hill's best efforts during his final 9 game surge and overall rushing production outburst, 154 yard, 2 TD AND 152 yard contests against JAX and NO, respectively, and effectively dispels the myth that Hill did his damage while Bernard was out with injury, which simply isn't true (6 games, 109-572-4 = 5.25 Y/C average). AFTER Bernard returned (again, with a near identical Y/C average), in his last six regular season games, Hill had at least 87 yards or 1 TD in four of those games, and both in three of them.          

Key questions entering the 2016 season

Hill:

1) Did he get "lucky" with a few long runs in his 2014 rookie season?

2) If not, but he legitimately looked like he had more suddenness, burst, power, agility and elusiveness in 2014 (for a big back at 235 lbs., nobody is comparing him to Gale Sayers or Barry Sanders, but he weighs 35 lbs. more than both of them), and relatively more sluggish in 2015, WHY? Did he gain weight? Did they run more power I formations in 2014 and more shot gun in 2015? Something else? Of course, it isn't mutually exclusive that Hill both ran better and had more "luck" in 2014, so it could be a combination/confluence of factors, and (typically with life in general and football specifically) more complex and multi-valent than any mono-explanation/solution could account for.

3) And the real kicker going forward, should the expectation for Hill in 2016 be more like 2014, 2015 or somewhere in between?

Bernard:

1) While I have noted above issues with the injury explanation for his drop off in 2014 based on his Y/C average being basically identical pre/post injury (a stat independent, isolated, detached and compartmentalized from usage - unless the case is made Bernard is a "volume back", which I've never heard before), I haven't seen any suggestions that he was hurt in 2015. After his blistering start last year, HOW and on what basis, if not injury, do we account for his relatively lower production in the second half, if Hill ISN'T the presumptive starter and volume back, and Bernard more of a COP/receiving back?

Back to the lead off in this post, what light, if any, does 2015 shed in helping to parse the "starter" question (if it even is one)? As alluded to in the OP regarding Hill ("...after two fumbles in game 2 against SD, his USAGE dipped for about a month, but his Y/C average still fell off a cliff - remaining that way even after his carries saw a slight uptick in the second half."), Bernard went from 8 carries in the opener, to 13+ for a month straight - 20, 13, 13 and 15, seemingly coinciding with Hill being in the dog house for fumbling, though as ALSO noted above, Hill just didn't run as well at any point in 2015 as he did in the second half of his brilliant rookie campaign, so his reduction in carries may have stemmed from that? But after that month in which Bernard saw a surge in carries (games 2-5, SD, BAL, KC & SEA), he only had 13+ carries in 2/11 remaining games, and less than 8 carries in 8/11 of those. Again, WHY, if he A) wasn't injured and B) if their respective roles AREN'T Hill as presumptive starter and volume back, with Bernard the complementary COP/receiving back?

* On scoring volatility - Very few RBs score a LOT like a #1 RB with every week consistency. Just a handful? Even fewer #2 RBs score a LOT with that kind of consistency (or they would by definition be #1 RBs  ). In other words, after a handful of RBs, ALL RBs are by definition some form of sub-#1 RB (#2 RB, #3 RB, #4 RB, etc.). I play in only one 12 team dynasty league, three 14 team and one 16 team.  So in 14-16 team leagues, that equates to 14-16 #1 RBs, 15-28 OR 17-32 comprise the #2 RBs, 29-42 OR 33-48 the #3 RBs, and so on. I'm not in too many leagues where you only carry 1-2 RBs on your roster (none, actually). So in MY leagues, Hill "ranging" from 9-10 among RBs in his 2014 rookie season, in which he had the advantage of more or less solo carries for three games but not the last six, and counterbalanced by the disadvantage of severely curtailed carries in his first seven games, and still "ranging" from 17-18 even in a soph slump season that saw a precipitous decline in Y/C average, is far from worthless (for those who contend Bernard is too formidable an obstacle or CIN has "too many" other extra-RB offensive weapons for Hill to possibly be productive or useful). There just aren't 28-32 or 42-48 #1 RBs that score a lot every week (the math doesn't compute, obviously). Some people may philosophically choose to draft RBs that have no competition in the backfield, which is a separate issue. But, A) how many situations are described like that around the NFL RB-scape, B) if you chase opportunity instead of talent, how long will that situation with zero competition persist and C) while everybody has hits and misses, in the end, how ultimately effective is one PROCESS relative to another - is chasing opportunity over talent ALWAYS the higher percentage play and therefore optimal solution (in my experience no, that leads to situations such as drafting RBs like CAR 2005 second rounder Eric Shelton because Deshaun Foster isn't a strong incumbent, only to have their value torpedoed a season later by 2006 first rounder DeAngelo Williams, to cite just one example, Tre Mason and Todd Gurley another, etc., etc., etc.)?         

BTW, in my leagues (two PPR and two half PPR that I checked the data on), on a total scoring basis, Hill was decisively better than Bernard in 2014, and still better even in 2015, albeit slightly, so these trends must have been more marked and pronounced in non-PPR scoring formats.          

 

[Bri]

I don't know Ken. His dad? would run Hill into the ground in typical old school fashion. Looking for some info, comparison, etc on Ken as all I know is Ernie

 

[Bob Magaw]

No precedent with Ken, this is his first OC gig, Bri. IMO it would be safe to conclude one reason he was promoted was to preserve SOME semblance of continuity. However this is doubly complicated by the fact that not only Ken Zampese is a relative unknown, but even the known commodity of his supposedly run-centric predecessor was already in the process of morphing CIN into more of a passing direction in 2015 (Dalton having a borderline MVP-type season before the late season-ending injury). I would be remiss to not mention (earlier oversight, obviously we are talking about a lot of things here, hard to remember everything in every post  ), this "philosophical"/scheme shift or trend coincided with the receiving weapons of the Bengals being healthier in general. Especially TE Eifert, who enjoyed a breakout season, and WR Jones (they missed a combined 31 games in 2014), but also Green. Of course, Jones (and Sanu) have since moved on in free agency. So the multiple passing game defections and one semi-prominent addition (WR Brandon LaFell) in free agency, as well as the draft addition of second round WR Boyd (at least) quadruply complicates 2016 Hill/Bernard projections. I.E. - new OC, already evidence of a morphing scheme in 2015, plus passing game additions/subtractions in free agency AND the draft.

* Note that if CIN passes the ball more successfully and gets in position to score more, that isn't NECESSARILY a bad thing for Hill, which seems to have been a misnomer in this discussion since pretty near the beginning.      

 

[Biabreakable]

That is a lot of words Bob to miss the fact that Hue Jackson also said that who is the starter only means who starts the game. Not going to dig for it now, its posted in the last Hill/Bernard threads.

2015 offensive snaps

Bernard 54.9%

Hill 43.4%

 

[Bob Magaw]

Just in case there is any confusion in the thread at large (since I'm not in any leagues where I get points for snaps, running routes or being a rush decoy ), here is one way to break down or parse the question whether or not it makes sense to call Hill or Bernard the nominal, ostensible RB "starter" - as opposed to the complementary COP/receiving back.

As the primary ball carrier in the offense (which Hill clearly has been in the last 22 games), my guess is Hill got a higher percentage of CARRIES per snap than his RBBC counterpart Bernard. Sometimes Hill is a receiver and sometimes Bernard is a rusher, but we are talking about marked, pronounced trends over the past 22 games since Hill was announced the starter. When Hill was on the field and a run play called, it probably wasn't going to be a designed QB run for Dalton, or a reverse to Green, Eifert, LaFell, Boyd or Kroft. It was LIKELY going to be a hand off to Hill.

As the primary receiving back in the offense (which Bernard clearly has been in the past 22 games), my guess is Bernard got a lower percentage of RECEPTIONS per snap than his respective RBBC counterpart Hill got CARRIES per snap. Why? Obviously Bernard has to compete for targets and receptions with the likes of Green, Eifert, LaFell and Boyd (in 2015, receptions - Green 86, Jones 65, Eifert 52, Bernard 49 and Sanu 33) in a way that Hill doesn't have to compete for carries with Green, Eifert, LaFell and Boyd - with them not being RBs and all.      

* Bottom line, I'd suggest that WHO GOT THE BALL MORE is a more meaningful and relevant definition of RB starter for FANTASY PURPOSES. Hill had 119 more carries in the 22 game sample of the above cited time frame, more than 5 per game (5.41, to be exact). Bernard's average carries 213/22 = 9.68. 5.41/9.68 = a 56% edge in carries for Hill vs. Bernard (as already noted above, Bernard had about 2 receptions per game more than Hill last season). Scoring-wise, Hill had a 15-2 rushing TD edge in the last 22 game time frame since he was named the starter (who is getting the run play SNAPS when the ball is close to the goal line?). Bernard's 2/17 = 12%, Hill's 15/17 = 88%. Bernard did have 2 receiving TDs in the last two games of 2014, Hill had 1 receiving TD in game 6 against BUF in 2015. So even recalculated as total RB rushing/receiving scores, Bernard's 4/20 = 20%, Hill's 16/20 = 80%. DESPITE the bulk of that falling in a soph slump 2015 campaign for Hill during which he may have been in the dog house/semi-benched due to 2 fumbles against SD, for a month from games 2-5 (or a quarter of the season).

 

[Bri]

I didn't like their offense. Everything seems forced and borderline predictable. I think Eifert and Green are supreme athletes that can overcome a D knowing the ball is coming their way and catch it anyway. Jones and Sanu were nice, but relatively unimpressive short of a game here N there. 3-4 catches to remind the D they exist but it didn't feel like a contribution most weeks.

The run game IS often predictable. Runs on first and second are oh so common. 

I thought it might be Dalton telegraphing every pass but it wasn't. He was fine. Now I didn't see every game but maybe 5-6. Whomever was getting the ball was alone-very often. If Green was getting it on the right, then all three routes (RB, other WR, TE) were on the left. I won $100 playing this predict the play game during a Cincy game. I think I was 84% but that's high. I really think their O was terrible but gifted athletes made it work.

What I want to see is a normally scripted O and that other WR to be something. LaFell can sure do the "oh yeah he is playing" role and catch 3 for 30 or 4 for 40. I want the other WR to jump up and get 100 yards every now and then.

The Lions with Calvin, the Texans with DeAndre and earlier with Andre and Cincy some weeks with AJ- all these offenses can look the same. A back or two and throws to the big guy. It really bugs me because Calvin is done. He never got that awesome counterpart. I swear he could have had 2000 yards with a nice player opposite him. Green isn't Calvin but he is excellent. Give the guy some room, let him play in a normal O for a change.

Maybe the solution (or even just the mindset) is to consider lining Eifert up wide, opposite Green. Stew on that. Let Dalton stew on that and the OC chew on that idea. I'm telling ya if they were balanced, they could win the Supe. 

Fisher did it with Marvin Harrison years ago, BB has done it in numerous ways...some day Ds are going to almost allow the other WR to catch it. It's football's version of 3 guys covering Michael Jordan and the rest being 4 on 2. 

Carolina did it to Julio last year and Matt Ryan was clueless. He forced 8 for 80 or somesuch to Julio but the other WRs were right there, easy passes and he wouldn't take it. Then finally when he did, it was the "oh yeah don't forget about him" routes. Not productive but annoying. (Headed to pfr http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201512130car.htm) White had 4 for 35, Nick was 4 for 40.

They got shut out 38-0. Next time, Julio was Julio and somehow had 9 for 178 yards and they won. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201512270atl.htm That's lucky. I'm telling ya, it should be a balanced O. How many teams would have or were burned banking on their stud WR beating Norman last year? That was a terrible plan, they just got lucky to win. 

Lions did this. Cincy does this. They're a hair more creative and it could be Eifert this play or Green the next, but..it's boring and gonna cost them if Ken doesn't have a balanced O. There's no trust that with less targets, the stud will break free for 30-40 yard gains. 

 

[Bob Magaw]

Good points.

Calvin Johnson came just 36 yards shy of 2,000 in 2012 (combined 5,137 receiving yards from 2011-2013).

Green has a few distinctions:

1) As a 2011 rookie he was the first WR to make the Pro Bowl since Anquan Boldin nearly a decade prior. 

2) Despite missing three games due to injury in 2014, he is just the second WR in NFL history with 1,000+ yards in his first five seasons (Moss six).

3) From 2011-2013, his 260 receptions are the most in his first three seasons than any other WR in NFL history (a record likely to be broken in 2016 by third year MIA WR Jarvis Landry if healthy, who broke the two year record with 194 - he needs just 67, a sign of the times in what has become a pass wacky league, one reason I'm intrigued by teams like DAL, STL & TEN attempting to turn the clock back to a more medieval, smash mouth, hard-nosed, punishing, physical, run-centric attack/scheme).